Thursday, November 8, 2012
11/9/12 Whence the bounce?
The market ‘map’ appears to be playing out-> the NDQ has corrected -9%, the DJIA + SPX about -6%. The hard part is deciding when to go long. Good entry points would be either panic (a sharp drop that reverses quickly) or desolation (a relentless daily grind lower). I don’t think we’re there yet, but it’s usually not difficult to recognize either sentiment when it arrives. In the meantime, hang out with Dylan on Desolation Row!
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AGO - I expect I'll be sticking with this one, something feels right.
ReplyDeleteOh, did I just say that?
I'd be surprised if we're not very close to a tradeable bottom.
ReplyDeleteQQQ is only a couple of bucks from closing it's open gap up. I was hoping it would be closed, but maybe you're right...
DeleteFSYS - Didn't realize this company does business in Iran, but it makes sense. Makes for good controversy, will they still qualify for their piece of the natural gas act pie?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, that Kevin Douglas guy owns large positions in FSYS/WPRT/CLNE, and IMAX as well.
CLNE - This one has the best looking OBV
DeleteRon Paul: "We've already gone over the fiscal cliff"
ReplyDeleteWPRT - I still remember the TCK halt well, that's where I mistakenly got off the boat.
ReplyDeleteAGO...
ReplyDeleteI have .73 GAAP v. .72 view.
Tradeable bottom. Agreed. I bid 1,000 NFX @ 25.00 AH but didn't fill.
ReplyDeletePATK- Wow, look at this winner.
ReplyDeleteThat chart's got major wood, 700%
DeletePer Mr. Landry's daily email - "Unfortunately, I think we're only seeing the beginning of a downtrend and not the end."
ReplyDeleteI'm sure he'd would say "wait for a trigger.
SD- That's an ugly bar.
ReplyDeleteThe cost of living in San Bernardino is 31.7% more than in Houston but the typical salary is only 4.4% more. I'm not sure how they calc that. I don't know where the working stiffs live on the east coast.
ReplyDeletePort- That probably explains why I'm building a vacation house for a young Huston couple in Healdsburg.
ReplyDeleteHow do you guys afford to live out there?
ReplyDeleteI can't tell you how many times I've looked at the jobs in Portland and just shook my head. Not only is it more expensive but they pay a lot less.
I need to start waiting for proper BUY triggers and raising my stop loss from $500 to $2000.
If I win the lotto this weekend I'm going to buy one of those private aircraft time shares. I figured out that with 5 of us on board, a round trip from Houston to Portland would cost about $4000 per person plus I'd be helping out the economy.
No trades for me but I may buy some DVN at 52.50 for a longer term position or maybe I'll sell some 50 strike puts. The last time I bought DVN for a long term trade was earlier this year at $68 and I sold it a few weeks later at $58. I'll use a stop this time.
ReplyDeleteStill on vacation and not ready to go bull bore with the rest of my cash but i see a lot of potential value out there and i'm thinking i should have done something more today...just trying to focus on stuff that is deeply oversold after being clear winners only a few months ago...or on stuff that is just plain old deeply oversold. Z comes to mind.
ReplyDeleteI'm still curious about HXM
DeleteHave you given up on REDF?
TTM - What the heck lifted this thing today?
ReplyDelete81 - Well, this may have been a cycle top for the dollar.
ReplyDeleteMEOH - This one was beginning to look headed for the hills.
ReplyDeleteAGO had Operating Income of $0.85, GAAP of $0.73. Difference is "non-economic net fair value losses".
ReplyDeleteProblem with GAAP is they force you to revalue all non-explicit hedges each quarter, even if you are using the instrument as a hedge and have no intention of selling. This causes big siwngs in the earnings for insurance companies, leasing companies, some energy companies, etc.
It kind of makes sense to do this in that if you were closing the business, that is what the hedge would be worth on the market, but doesn't really make sense in an ongoing business basis.
SD- Wowza!
ReplyDeleteENPH off @ 2.70. I'll take the $700 bucks for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteHEK- Is anyone else suspicious that they are reporting Friday afternoon?
ReplyDeleteGood time to report if you're trying to bury bad news? I'm not sure there's anything to that but we can watch and take notes.
DeleteGRPN - Nice little dip today.
ReplyDeleteNFX - You coulda' had it under $25 today.
ReplyDeleteYep. I was content with my ENPH trade. My bad.
DeleteSQNM - Wowza!
ReplyDeleteBAM!..Just think if they only lost .20!
DeleteAccording to Draghi real yields are negative, so what's the difference?
DeleteAt least someone gets to eat steak!
A gap up from $2.89 that needs closing, so new longs are still being set up.
DeleteGold - Interesting that gold keeps hanging in there aside a rising dollar and a Europe that needs a weaker currency to offset their labor issues.
ReplyDeleteFBN - I see that $1 gap up was closed yesterday.......
ReplyDeleteAmazing this company treats it's shareholders so crappy considering their sales are $1B, shouldn't they be able to at least turn a profit?
DeleteAGO - Okay, what took soooooooo looooooonngggggggg? ;)
ReplyDeleteWe must come together in a partisan ways to solve these fiscal problems, but first please sign this Grover Norquist pledge: __________________.
ReplyDeleteSure. I pledge to adopt a position that precludes coming together or compromising in any way.
DeleteNSPH - Well so far this one's outperforming TNA and QLD by some amount. How long is that likely to be the case?
ReplyDeleteMan dies on porch, is mistaken as left-over Halloween decoration.
ReplyDeleteThat's why a man needs a maid to clean up after him.
DeleteYeah, clean-up on aisle 9!
DeleteAlways like Neil's music, age sure seems to taken it toll on him.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Obfci1CIqq8&feature=related
none of us is getting out of here alive.
DeleteThere we go, 10 points on SPX once it became clear the fight goes onto the next round. LOL....
ReplyDelete"Good entry points would be either panic (a sharp drop that reverses quickly) or desolation (a relentless daily grind lower)."
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- would you say that AUMN landscape is in a total desolation now? Compare its charts with GDXJ and SIL since the July low in PMs, with the understanding that AUMN is MUCH stronger fundamentally than it was in July (it had no cash back then to expand its production, and today it announced that it has $54M in cash after 3Q, after issuing more shares at $5.75) and logically, it has no business trading under $5.75. So does its relentless and unexplainable drop since the share offering on Sept 14 qualify as desolation by now?
If you are asking it may be getting close. when you are ready to throw in the towel it will be desolation row.
DeleteCraig, I've been playing this game for a while now and I know that the more AUMN goes down from here, the higher will be the percentage gain for those who buy it now. So, to the chagrin of all those who are long AUMN, I will not bail out. Which means that they are all screwed. :)
DeleteBought 10 more contracts of April $2.50 calls, this time at $1.55.
DeleteSD and MCP
ReplyDeleteWhat wild rides.
I suspect that AUMN is down today not because of earnings but because SIL is down 1% today, and computer programs are just keeping the same correlations as before, while slapping on a higher beta on AUMN.
ReplyDeletePM's have been doing pretty good in the face of this selling. SLV is up about a half a point, so I'm not worried. But, as big Dave says, "one day at a time".
DeleteToday HAS to be the final washout in AUMN -- it is getting beyond unreasonable...
ReplyDeleteNeeds a volume surge as potential confirmation?
DeleteZIP - A-dee-doo-da........
ReplyDeleteAUMN..I'll take a shot if it spikes below 3.80.
ReplyDeleteMark, do you think that a month from now it will matter whether you had bought AUMN at $3.80 or $3.85? What will matter is whether you bought it today or not.
DeleteLooking at the AUMN chart since September 13, you would think that their mine had caved in or someone stole all the cash they had in the bank. What has actually happened, however, is they raised $37M by issuing some shares at $5.75, with investors buying those shares hand-over-fist, in a single day, as a great bargain. Little did they know...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - What TF happened today, did the mine cave in?
ReplyDeleteGold - Sure looks as if gold is a dollar reversal soon.
ReplyDeleteWonder if the commercials have been exiting their long-dollar position?
Wholly chit! A mine caved in?? Is everyone OK?
ReplyDeleteI also read the money inside was first stolen! Odd place to store money but who knows?!?!? ;)
Delete:))))
DeleteI wasn't watching the clock and I ended up long some SSO and AAPL at the end of the day. Wonder what Monday will bring?
ReplyDeletesold afterhours, mostly flat
Deletetoday i also sold to open some FCX 37.5 strike puts and bought 40.50 strike calls, all for nov. It the stock gets put to me next weekend, I'll immediately sell covered calls 1 or two months out the following monday.
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