The market's been trading in a narrow range for almost three weeks. It's time for a little volatility, and I think the indexes break down- which will present a buying opportunity.
Another area for bottom fishing into year-end may be the coal stocks.
The price of Appalacian Coal is now near a 1 year high and at over 80% of the 2011 highs, but many of the stocks are still down near 50% from the previous highs.
Yeah, starting to get that feeling that you can't do anything wrong - generally a sign we are getting close to a top, but don't have that "I have to get in before it gets away" feeling that usually I get a week or two before the final top.
Anyone trading energy services. Globe reporting today that Canadian energy services insiders are very bullish. Plus, with energy being the only major sector in the negative this year and all the press about the US becoming energy efficient, probably not a bad time to buy.
================================
Oil and gas services equipment stocks have fallen out of favour with investors, but certainly not with the executives and directors who work within the industry.
Insider buying in those companies is remarkably high, jumping over the 1000 per cent level late last month, according to INK Research. That means there were more than 10 stocks in the group with key insider buying for every one with selling.
The indicator has come off a little over the last few days, now at 600 per cent. But that’s still a very high number and worth noting given that corporate insiders, on average, tend to make better calls on buying and selling shares than individual investors.
I am not smart enough to know how it happens, but in general we see this type of action then there is enough of a correction that everyone gets off the train, THEN it goes to 1470.
I agree second...it's good to have self loathing for about 5 minutes...then it's time to move on. The only good we can take from failed trades/opportunities is learning from them. Same can be said for any kind of failure in life.
1431 - This is the H&S neckline, so shorts are gonna press their luck here no doubt. A close over this level and they might begin capitulating, it seems either profit taking is dominant today or maybe it's just shorts adding to their positions?
Since I don't expect much ST upside from here as shorts are ringing the BS bell, and I really do need to add a couple of positions for the LT rally that's coming, I'll just say SORRY SHORTS, my need to add will keep the downside minimal and I won't be looking a gift horse in the mouth. TYVM! ;)
FLEX - another oldtimer tech stock having a good bounce here. They've had a reasonable year, but stock has been going down since March and now some good news on an acquisition from Motorola Mobility.
While I wouldn't classify FLEX as that beaten down, the past 6 months has been the year of the big cap turnaround. i don't think this trend is dead yet.
SNE is almost EXACTLY the same as RIMM through early Sept. MACD trends, Full Stochastics, RSI trends....all almost exactly the same. RIMM is up about 90% in the past 3 months.
Sold half my ACI position at my first sell target of $7.60 today. Moving my stop to breakeven at $6.96. Maybe I'll change this setup after reading Jesse's book.
The education companies look like they're setting up for a massive reversion trade. CECO EDMC APOL
ReplyDeleteYep, nothing wrong with a little COCO...
Deletehttp://www.whosay.com/coco/photos/244528
CoCo Puffs
DeleteAnother area for bottom fishing into year-end may be the coal stocks.
ReplyDeleteThe price of Appalacian Coal is now near a 1 year high and at over 80% of the 2011 highs, but many of the stocks are still down near 50% from the previous highs.
NCQ off, goodbye
ReplyDeleteTaking some Z off here....
ReplyDeleteLet's see. Z rockets up +3.6%, while SNE and NSPH snooze.
ReplyDeleteyep...dumb money strikes again!
DeleteGreat, watching Z get squeezed with a smaller position..... It's hard to gauge these things.
DeleteWish I was more patient with INTC....
ReplyDeleteI'll bet David is loving the action in AUMN
ReplyDeleteAUMN is on my list of the 10 best looking charts right now...I'm sure all small miners are.
DeleteOkay, you KNOW what happens after today, right?
ReplyDeleteWe have an overbought market getting more overbought right now.....everyone feels like a genius....
Smoke em if you got em.
Pass the doob.
DeleteYeah, starting to get that feeling that you can't do anything wrong - generally a sign we are getting close to a top, but don't have that "I have to get in before it gets away" feeling that usually I get a week or two before the final top.
DeleteAnyone trading energy services. Globe reporting today that Canadian energy services insiders are very bullish. Plus, with energy being the only major sector in the negative this year and all the press about the US becoming energy efficient, probably not a bad time to buy.
ReplyDelete================================
Oil and gas services equipment stocks have fallen out of favour with investors, but certainly not with the executives and directors who work within the industry.
Insider buying in those companies is remarkably high, jumping over the 1000 per cent level late last month, according to INK Research. That means there were more than 10 stocks in the group with key insider buying for every one with selling.
The indicator has come off a little over the last few days, now at 600 per cent. But that’s still a very high number and worth noting given that corporate insiders, on average, tend to make better calls on buying and selling shares than individual investors.
You think this is overbought? Just wait til we get to 1,470 again.
ReplyDeleteI am not smart enough to know how it happens, but in general we see this type of action then there is enough of a correction that everyone gets off the train, THEN it goes to 1470.
DeleteIn a way i'm happy I wasn't all in on Z because I would really be kicking myself, but I still managed to leave $15k on the table.
ReplyDeleteNo worries. There's another trade happening, right now. And you're in at least one of them.
DeleteF_ _ _! I would have been up pretty nicely in INTC if I had just SAT and done nothing.
ReplyDeleteCurse you Livermore!
We need to look ahead. I really don't give a ---- about water under the bridge. It's always about the next trade, right?
DeleteNo doubt, but I'm publicly punishing myself in the hopes the lesson sticks....
DeleteThere will be another train any minute.
Public humiliation? No prob. I know all about that, and engage in it myself as much as possible.
DeleteI agree second...it's good to have self loathing for about 5 minutes...then it's time to move on. The only good we can take from failed trades/opportunities is learning from them. Same can be said for any kind of failure in life.
DeleteOn the bright side, SNE is making a small come back here, Z has pulled back, INTC will surely drop again, and AUMN will go to $20.
DeleteOh and of course NSPH...well that's already in the money for Mark. CP not sure where you got it.
DeleteNSPH - My basis is $3.025 on this one now b/c I didn't add the last 1/4 for a full position on the pullback to $2.40
DeleteI figure the fastest way for AUMN to reach $20 is if I don't own any.
Got to run guys. Good job on the scalps!
ReplyDeletehere's another one that is beaten down and looks like it's starting to begin another bull run:
ReplyDeleteAPP
1431 - This is the H&S neckline, so shorts are gonna press their luck here no doubt. A close over this level and they might begin capitulating, it seems either profit taking is dominant today or maybe it's just shorts adding to their positions?
ReplyDeleteSince I don't expect much ST upside from here as shorts are ringing the BS bell, and I really do need to add a couple of positions for the LT rally that's coming, I'll just say SORRY SHORTS, my need to add will keep the downside minimal and I won't be looking a gift horse in the mouth. TYVM! ;)
AUMN - I see this one only advances in the case silver drops, this is far from a first occurrence.
ReplyDeleteZ - See what happens once you sell something? The exact opposite of what happens when you buy.
ReplyDeleteVE - That counts as a breakout.
ReplyDeleteThere must be some good news floating around I'm not aware of, like the world hasn't gone to hell in a hand basket as predicted.
Will Dec 21st end of Mayan calendar, be a sell the news day? NASA claims end of world isn't gonna happen.
AGCO - How do you like this puppy now?
ReplyDeleteSQNM - This one looks pretty damn good from this perspective doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteFLEX - another oldtimer tech stock having a good bounce here. They've had a reasonable year, but stock has been going down since March and now some good news on an acquisition from Motorola Mobility.
ReplyDeleteWhile I wouldn't classify FLEX as that beaten down, the past 6 months has been the year of the big cap turnaround. i don't think this trend is dead yet.
DeleteDave,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the big news on AUMN, can't find anything... Anyway congrats
Igor- Pretty sure Dave is on vacation for another week.
DeleteLook at the similarity in these charts:
ReplyDeleteRIMM:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIMM&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p46669317076
SNE:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p36669897520
SNE is almost EXACTLY the same as RIMM through early Sept. MACD trends, Full Stochastics, RSI trends....all almost exactly the same. RIMM is up about 90% in the past 3 months.
I'm not sure there can be correlation, but I keep a chart of it on my screen just in case! A 90% move will start with a cross of the fast MA's.
DeleteTROX
DeleteAGO - Sure looks like bull flag formation to me.
ReplyDeleteSure does, but so did NSPH!
DeleteYes, however, I own NSPH and sold AGO!
DeleteNSPH - Still has an obligation at $2.69
ReplyDeleteTOSBF - Up, on increased volume.
ReplyDeleteHBC - Hmm, this one was up slightly as well... The verdict is in, CRIME PAYS!
I got my reviewer's copy of Jesse's book. I assume all you guys are busy reading it at the moment.
ReplyDeleteGO AMBS.
Sold half my ACI position at my first sell target of $7.60 today. Moving my stop to breakeven at $6.96. Maybe I'll change this setup after reading Jesse's book.
ReplyDelete