When I get ticked off at a missed opportunity, I click on the YTD gains for the 'default' fund into which the majority of company employees are invested. Right now it's about +11.x%, including dividends. Not much less than my own +18.4%, but compounded over several years the difference would really add up.
If I get really ticked off, then I'll compare gains since March 2009. Unbelievably, it's only +47% for the company fund! Whereas my corresponding gain comes in around +150%. I'm almost certain most of you can report much higher returns.
jesse- Hands down the best read on trading in a long, long time. I've only scanned through most of it, but I did read Chapter One in its entirety (I always head for autobiographical sections first if available, and yours really stands out).
ReplyDeleteYou now have the peace of mind that comes with writing it all down and passing it on before time runs out, bro ;) I still need to get around to it.
Funds suck to be blunt.
ReplyDeleteFirst they take off management fees regardless of how well they do which is the obvious cost. But they also have to maintain cash for redemptions which hurts performance. And finally, they are forced sellers into poor markets as people redeem and buyers in high markets as people pour money into a good fund.
We've had pretty good markets in Canada lately with the current 10 year return at 9.1% including dividends, but it is amazing how many people you talk to who put their money into the "company funds" who have made almost no money.
I'd also be curious to know how much your company fund went down in the 2007 - 2009 bear and if people are back to 2007 holdings, even with their ongoing contributions.
DeleteAnd 150% in 3 and a half years is a pretty fine return, even taking into account that was the bear market bottom!
Delete2nd - I've become so accustomed to 200% returns annually that this year's 40% return pisses me off. This year has been one filled with lots of missed opportunities but the fact of the matter is we're still alive and kicking and from the sounds of it we're all thriving. Especially Jesse...congrats again man.
ReplyDeleteInvesting is all about themes right? What's working now and what is the next thing within what is working now that will be working next? The majority of the majority are herd followers. Especially when it comes to the big money. So my thinking right now keeps coming back to beaten down blue chips. And specifically anything that was crushed by Apple. Since Apple has topped out it has become clear that the momentum is out of the name. And companies like NOK and RIMM have taken over in the span of a few months. I've seen HPQ and DELL go literally straight upward for 3 weeks now. SNE is next. I'm fairly certain of this.
ReplyDeleteIt does seem like we've had a winner takes all type of technology market with everyone chasing AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, Samsung, etc. and I think you have rightly identified that a lot of these tier 2 stocks have been beat down too far. Seems like it should be a good hunting ground.
DeleteSold SNE for the 500 smackers.
ReplyDeleteI'm a freaking wuss for selling out of SNE @ the open.
ReplyDeleteI see Mark did the same. So much for my long-term strategy.
DeleteNo your not. You've just become a day trader for the time being Nancy.
DeleteThis is exactly why you and I will never trade like jesse, bro.
DeleteYour right. Deep down I know I'm not really cut out to trade even the way I do know with large single positions. I'd much rather trade like BB.
DeleteLOL, I bought it at the open and just sold it. I'll look for another go ASAP.
DeleteOut of Z on the pop too.
Stupidly covered my ROST short at the open for a further profit and promptly got spanked for that non-sense. I'll look for another shot on Ben's news.
A little fast on the draw but it's hard to whine about making $$$ and nobody listens anyway.
Damn CC, I have to wonder if you make love to your wife in similar fashion?
DeleteYour SNE/Z switch is now even Bro.
ReplyDeleteMy hands are kinda tied here with my 10K shares of BRK.A halted.
ReplyDeleteLOL! 10 K of brk A? STOP TRADING and go live life!
DeleteAre they buying the Sony Building?
DeleteSNE - Very nice move! ;)
ReplyDeleteYMI - Taking half off here.
Morning Market Tidbits: "Fed to replace Op Twist with outright Treasury purchases."
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how they know this to be fact ahead of any announcements, reporting news before the fact has got to be a huge money maker.
12:30 is when the FED begins running their mouth on their latest and greatest intervention?
NLY - Maybe I shoulda' added this morning but I'd prefer a price that reduces my cost basis.
ReplyDeleteCYE - Probably a good short?
ReplyDeleteTaking my LT position in NSPH off also.
ReplyDeleteDefinition of LT position: noun, An low risk equity position held in excess of two hours or until the next Federal Reserve intervention approaches, whichever comes first.
DeleteSold all except NSPH and RJA which are kinda of LT.
ReplyDeleteEven let go MGIC since its run up 23% from its lows and not interested in round "tripping" again.
Got that Alice?
Nice gain, can't beat that kind of one-way ticket.
DeleteYeah that's right CP but that's off the lows. I just got a piece of that, just so you know.
DeleteWish I was good enough to get lows and highs but it just ain't so. Play it again Sam.
Read about 70 pages of Jesse's book and briefly through the rest. I need to read over the weekend and digest.
ReplyDeleteREDF - That's not a bull flag is it?
ReplyDeleteLooks similar to the formation that led to $4 in Sept.
DeleteJust doesn't feel like a snap your neck back white knuckle clinging onto the "oh-shit!" grab handle rally to me quite yet.
ReplyDeleteguys! why are you selling SNE right now? This was at $36 only 20 months ago. A reversion to at least the 38% retracement level ($20) is in order. DELL, HPQ, RIMM, NOK are all powering higher even after tremdendous gains.
ReplyDeleteThe topper? Look at the Yen. It's absolutely tanking. This will have very positive effects on SNE which has gotten killed by the huge run in the yen.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p31641716507
I bought more today at $10.16.
I partially reloaded at 10.14 and will on any weakness.
DeleteI still think Z has some gas in the tank as well.
I love Z longer term...my argument is that I think SNE hits a 100% gain much faster than Z barring a buyout. The falling Yen is the MAJOR catalyst that people are missing with SNE. The run in the Yen has ended and it looks like it has clearly reversed.
DeleteAll right SNE at 10.17 with an order to buy more at 10 if FMOC gets crazy.
DeleteThe mornings block trade went out at 10.10.
I'm not sure you need to have an argument! You're preaching to the choir. :>)
DeleteFMOC? Ha I didn't even realize that they had a meeting today. Shows you how much I'm paying attention to the mass media lately.
DeleteSo of the Dogs that are rallying (RIMM, HPQ, DELL, NOK, FSLR) the following have hit their 23.6% retracement levels from highs of early 2011 to lows of 2012: NOK, DELL. The rest will do it I have little doubt. This is the year of the dog blue chips staging a comeback.
Actually I think you have it mostly right, look for your set-ups and trade them without regard to the market. Smart! The only caveat I would add is if long I prefer the SP 500 to be in a define uptrend.
DeleteJesse advocates no media input, I like that too.
My initial take on Jesse's book is that he is a deep value guy who looks for deeply trashed stocks where the last of the holdouts have thrown in the towel and value guys are coming in to build positions which you can see in the volumne spikes.
Like I said earlier I'll still need to read it all, but that's my initial take. What I like about it is it has the ability to limit risk on the downside with tight stops. Thumbs up.
Sounds not that far off Cara's approach - he finds really good businesses instead of deep value and then waits for selloff's
DeleteI personally tend to focus more on the fundamental side and less on the technical, but that is probably why I can end up holding a good stock for 2 years or more sometimes before it starts to move.
I've been getting better at timing buys, but I'll never be a RSI/bollanger band guy.
But understanding the stock and the value is key. If the recent SNE traders here had done the fundamental work and really believed SNE was a $35 stock, no way they'd be selling out so quick. Understanding value gives you the conviction to hold on the upside and downsied.
LOL, one computer algo I reference occasionally got short at 1407 on the 4th(that didn't work out too well), then flipped long yesterday at 1426, wonder how that's gonna work out?
ReplyDeleteSeems out of sync. There ARE shorts that are paying, but there are longs paying too.
DeleteBig Dave seems to think there is something holding the market up ST. I think it's the FOMC and the prospect of a fiscal thingy announcement to sell into before years end and higher taxes for the fat cats after 12/31/12. Without those I think we would end the year down, but then, as we know, all that is BS anyway.
Yeah, it's impossible to just buy something for LT, this fiasco is a big win for insiders.
DeleteARII - This thing's doing very well, wonder when or if coal demand drags NSC out of the doldrums?
ReplyDeleteSNE - Damn I hate buying gaps up, is this the real thing or a fiscal cliff anticipation rally that proves to be a big fat lead balloon full of hot gas?
ReplyDeletePKX - Speaking of steel, this Korean steeler has been singing the same tune as the choir.
ReplyDeleteJust based on the momentum stuff I look at it looks like the S&P is due for at least a short term top and then possibly consolidation within the next day or so.
ReplyDeleteWould not be surprised to see a "sell the news" pullback on the resolution to the fiscal cliff - would be a good time to selectively add in my opinion.
DeleteBy the way, I think everyone can train themselves to endure big drawdowns. The hardest part is to maintain conviction after it rebounds and not just cash in out of relief that it came back to breakeven. That's why Jesse did so well. However, I'm not a big proponent of leverage. While it can help you tremendously it can also bankrupt you quickly. I love making big bets and investing in "riskier" companies but I prefer to do it without leverage. The mental anguish of a big drawdown compounded with leverage is enough to drive anyone insane...or at the very least away from investing.
ReplyDeleteYep, loss of conviction has cost me nice gains several times this year. Not chasing gaps up has as well, looks like this is one rule I need to get over breaking. Jesse's words on breaking rules certainly ring a bell for me in this sense.
DeleteCP - ADRs typically have gaps all over the place. NOK is a prime example.
DeleteTOF- Re- SNE...because I'm a weak, spineless, ameba.
ReplyDelete2nd's simply a wuss.
DeleteThis one came up on the NSPH board. VRML. Quick glance at Finviz, it looks interesting. Anyone got the time to rally look at it?
ReplyDeleteMark - I mentioned that one a week or so ago. It was the one that went from $0.01 to $35 in 2009/10. I mentioned it because that spike a couple of weeks ago was setting it up for a big move higher. I think it looks awesome and it has shown itself to make massive moves. I'd take a flyer on it.
DeleteAh, that one. I didn't look at it specifically because it went to $35.
DeleteT3D,
ReplyDeleteI find it really hard to believe MGIC doesn't see at least $8.00 and probably $12.00 in the next couple of years.
They are at a 11 P/E, 9 forward P/E, revenues and profits are growing solidly, now have a 4% yield in an income starved world, their CEO seems excellent and has turned things around and continues to do well. Plus, they are in an important place in the market, application integration, and have a reasonable cloud story if cloud computing really does make a go of things.
In line with TOF's comment's above, it is hard to hold a stock when its back to a profit after a loss, but I think it's one of the really good ones.
One of the best investor guys I know only looks at stocks that have fallen 50% in a year, but once he determines that it is good value and the business is not broken, he buys on downspikes and holds for however long it takes and through as many drawdowns as necessary to catch the rebound.
DeleteHe doesn't have TOF or Jesse type returns, but he is almost always substantially better than the market.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThanks BB, before I bought I looked at the fundy's in my limited view, and thought they were solid. However the market just seemed not to care. The 200ema is around 5 and there is resistence in this area seemonth of SEP. I suppose I'm making a call that I will be able to buy back cheaper. BB as much as I envy people who can hold as you do, I just not sure its in my DNA, appreciate your views.
DeleteLeverage, I'm with TOF on this one, trade cash accounts only with the exception of futures.
Who has the balls for UGAZ here?
ReplyDeleteI've always wanted to try jesse's 300% overnight position in UNG at least once in my lifetime.
DeleteThe one where even he needed a sedative/hypnotic to get through the night.
DeleteI thought nobody would ever ask this question, I'm gonna look this chart over closely now for a potential ride on BOIL. Probably a sore subject for some.......
Delete2nd- Not me, but you already know that.
DeleteMark, you could easily reiterate a a tiny portion of why not without offending us.
DeleteI don't hit the leverage pipe either. Peace.
ReplyDeleteSo does Alice accept round-toit's as payment for her round trip fare?
ReplyDeleteIt was mid-September when UNG/UGAZ last traded at these levels.
ReplyDeleteYou know, you make an excellent point there! Look at how those ETF's suck compared to the real McCoy:
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=d1
UNG, king of the double top knock outs? It's gonna want to get a bit below the 200 dma before anyone thinks it's a deal, don't ya think?
DeletePerhaps it would be wise to wait and see reaction to the 200SMA, the 50SMA did provide support area on the first downside attempt.
DeleteSNE - It's funny, I keep typing in SME as the ticker for this one, this is the acronym we used when referring to the old AMD->Twinstar->Sony Microelectronics foundry just outside of Dallas in Grapevine. God they poured hellacious amounts of money into it but I never did have the feeling Sony was serious about keeping this particular facility in production.
ReplyDeleteScrew the pipe, pass me the hallucinogens!
AMD cranked a lot of product through and the facility was basically ancient and run into the ground when they sold it. The great thing was the Twinstar venture transformed AMD's virtual toxic waste dump into a great modern facility, but I never did see substantial quantity of product come out. Maybe I just wasn't paying close enough attention.....
DeleteDid anyone here read Deron's SLV info today? If you're holding silver or miners you may want to.
ReplyDeletePay special attention to the level it has to hold to remain positive.
Looks rather positive, with volume as well.
DeleteEPOL is really moving, as well.
DeleteThe knockout blow occurred this week in natgas. Excellent entry point and as always it happens right before the Thursday report.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, you guys do know that the etfs don't account for the rolls right? Perfect example is the trading on 9/26. Look at the futures and the underlying ETFs. That's why the returns on UNG etc look so bad when compared to the underlying commodity. The nat gas trade is still alive and well. There is a major trendline that will probably act as support around $3.15 on the futures. I wish we could attach pictures to show it.
RSI_EMA is right around where it bounced hard from in April, June, and August. I would wait for a break back above 30 on the RSI_EMA to trigger a buy signal because you never know if it is a moment like in January where it broke below and proceeded to go from $2.90 to $2.20 in about 7 trading days. Its similar to just waiting until something bottoms out and then puts in a higher low before buying.
DeleteOh crap, today's Wednesday, I was thinking Tuesday......
DeletePosted a link from seeking alpha a couple of days ago about how this could finally be changing in 2013 as the pricing normalizes and you'll make about 7% a year benefit because of the roll (prices in future months will be higher than current and drift back over time as opposed to the current situation where prices in the future are lower).
DeleteCould turn these products into reasonable trading products and not just day-trade tools.
2nd- Thanks for the kind words about the book. Very much appreciated. Glad u enjoy it thus far.
ReplyDelete1)I got REALLY bullish on SNE today. Even more so than my annual forecast.
2)I got REALLY REALLY bullish on SNE a few minutes ago when I saw 2nd's post re:$15cash/$23 book value
3)I almost shit my pants when I saw the entire board buy SNE. I got REALLY bearish.
4)I then see that SNE was sold after a couple % pop. Then I got REALLY REALLY REALLY bullish.
I have a section/chapter in the book titled "right vs. rich".
I find myself falling victim to this phenomenon from time to time. I think we may have seen a textbook case of it play out here today.
-Playstation last came out in early '07. They ramped SNE from $30 to $60 in anticipation in the year or so leading up to the launch. Playstation 4 will come out 12/13-12/14.
-I don't know if they do it every week, but I watched the X factor last week (don't ask) and it was a damn Sony infomercial. Its on tonight. I'll be curious if its the same every week. It was kind of like how American Idol is/was an infomercial for Ford. The intention being to reinvigorate the brand in the eyes of the 18-35 yo demo.
-I'm not into headphones but they were sporting some really innovative yet-to-be-released SNE headphones last week. Michael Phelps was wearing some kick-ass headphones every second of the olympics. Those may have been Sony as well...
-Sony Pictures, Sony Music Ent.(Michael Jackson, The Beatles, Usher, Eminem, Akon etc.), SNE Financial Services, Playstation, VAIO, high-end TVs, Cybershot/Handycam, tons of consumer electronics....And lastly let's not forget the Walkman:)
A giant global conglomerate w/ a Blue Chip brand. Japanese company to boot (quality).
-$10 Billion mkt. cap.
-HPQ sells crappy computers -$29 Billion mkt. cap
-MSFT $230 billion cap
-AAPL $680 billion cap 2 months ago.
Jesse - A couple of days ago after I entered the SNE trade I read a great sum of the parts calculation done by a short on SNE from about 6 months ago. Great writeup...his conclusion...wait for it, wait for it: "Anyway, at this point I think I will stay short this one for now. "
DeleteHere is the link: http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2012/05/deconstructing-sony-some-of-parts-have.html
Only problem I see is he only acknowledges the prospects of a Yen drop in passing. The way I see it the Yen bull market has run its course. No one really knows how much of a negative impact that had on SNE's prospects but my bet is it had a huge impact. Sony still puts out great products and now that the currency is a wind in its sails I bet the reversal is far greater than anyone expects. $60 within a couple of years? Absolutely why not? That still only puts it at a $60 Billion market cap. This chart says it all:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNE:$XJY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p16523422708
You have positive divergences galore. And a buy signal on the stochastics
A lower Yen is considered a positive indicator for manufacturing and markets in general in my book if I were to write one.
DeleteSNE - Jesse, LOL, probably a large portion of the interest here involves your write-up so what you read here probably doesn't count?
CP- So you're thinking about writing a book now also? In your case, I think an autobiography by itself would be a good read.
DeleteI've seriously thought about (indeed, plan on) writing an autobiographical short story. The problem is a truly honest story would include too many painful/embarrassing moments, and after age 25 I turn into a boring geek.
DeleteHmmmm.....I think this SNE situation is very unique from a technical/fundamental perspective. I think it deserves a write-up. I'll get to work.....
ReplyDeleteCP- Yes, I'm sure the interest is from the write-up, but I always get concerned (from a long's perspective) when people actually follow my "advice". Nobody ever follows me into my biggest trades (well maybe for a couple of days or so). The more skepticism/reluctance/second-guessing, the better. I actually say that in all seriousness.
The great thing is that I'm not trading so I can kind of watch it play out as a "neutral 3rd party".
I have been in and out of NOK for a while and was debating how else to play the end of the AAPL run but never even thought of SNE. Glad you brought it up. Typically I don't like to invest in stuff like this without a clearly defined bottom and then a re-test. That's just what I've learned over the past several years. I also really like the ones that have big high vol spikes after a huge downtrend and a month to several month base period. Typically that is followed by a low vol pullback where it is a great entry point so long as the lows stay intact. That's where I got involved with SVNT back in the summer around $0.7. VRML is setting up somewhat simlarly.
DeleteHowever, in looking at how DELL and HPQ have traded recently, I couldn't escape the thought that it would follow suit. Another look at the Yen and the Nikkei and it became pretty clear to me that the odds of it making a re-test would be lower than normal. Doesn't mean it won't happen but it just reduces the likelihood that it will happen soon. Likely what I think we're going to see is a 30 to 60% run and then a stall and pullback. NOK ran 100% in about 4 weeks without much of a pullback at all. I'm using NOK and RIMM as rough gauges.
Speaking of SLV, check out the volatility in the past 24 hours:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
That's why I hesitate to hold miners longer than one day at a time. Which would be the bumper sticker I would buy any trader in the sector.
Re SNE-
ReplyDelete(a) fwiw, I became positive on the stock after reading tof's original post. I had no idea jesse was involved until I got around to reading his 2013 Forecast Monday evening.
(b) This morning (while still in bed and framing my thoughts for the day), I decided I would buy 10-20k shares of SNE around 9.90. This plan got trashed as soon as I booted up the PC around 330 am to see the bid/ask @ 10.06/10.15. I think I mumbled '---- that idea!' or something along those lines.
(c) When the market opened and SNE bids held around 10.15, the 10-20k idea was still messing with my head, and I reflexively dumped the shares I had.
Can someone tell me why silver futes are trading down -2.35% right now?
ReplyDeleteWithout using the term 'CC.'
DeleteI deleted your post b/c you an indirect reference was made to the above term. But I have to admit I agree with you!
DeleteSay it's not so, disqualified for cheating? Perhaps to cover my tracks(no, not needle tracks) I should've mentioned El-Erian sudggested gold and TIPS tonight? Okay, just buy PM's on weakness assuming they must be bought.
DeleteSo exactly how the heck are we supposed to watch sucky X-Factor while the Victoria Secret show is on, huh?
ReplyDeleteAh, picture in picture works, guess which one's in the bottom right corner?
DeleteFor those of you in the Bay Area, this is the same San Carlos display we stumbled on last December:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/san-carlos-ca-man-decorates-two-homes-748-201100934.html
SLV- That's a natty move man. Wow.
ReplyDeleteHow did you guys order Jessie's book? I couldn't find it on AMZN.
ReplyDeleteCheck your email!
DeleteI have the PDF version. I wanted to buy some for gifts!
DeleteBTW..You kinda asked my take on natty...It's just to hard for me to play when I'm busy. We've all seen the 10-20% intraday moves/reversals.
DeleteMaybe I'm wrong but hard copy isn't available yet I believe.
DeleteNG - Yeah, makes sense now.
Sold my last 3 FSLR Jan 27 strike calls right after TOF's "S&P ... short term top" comment. Per Jesse's book, I was actually working on a chart of FSLR, comparing the 10 WMA against the intraday high for FSLR. I'm ok holding the shares but I've moved to a much more conservative stance over the last 3 months on the use of long speculative calls and it seemed like FSLR was close to being a little extended against the 10 WMA. Now I was having a hard time focusing on the chart at work having it sitting up on the screen. I think in the future I should have a better plan in place to at least be aware of the price range for these types of moves so I don't have to try and figure it out and my wide open desk at work.
ReplyDeleteBefore reading the book I actually thought Jesse was strictly technical based on some of the comments I've seen here and in past emails.
ReplyDeleteI did skip to chapter 11 after reading the Preface and chapter 1.
The Nikkei is ripping higher. The yen is continuing it's free fall. And SNE sits near multi decade lows. SNE is about to embark on one helluva run higher.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/sony-next-rim-003828985.html
ReplyDeleteThis guy is going to make a killing on this bet.
121212 Concert
ReplyDeleteThe Who and Paul McCartney ripped hard to believe how good both still are.
SNE Chart Observation 12 Dec 12
ReplyDeleteMy observation is based SuperStocks chapter 7 top 5 must haves.
a) Strong Base Breakout (SBB)
b) Breakout above 30 week moving average (B30)
c) Volume Expansion (VE)
d) High Angle of attack (HAA)
e) Under $15
I like SNE but the weekly chart is not exhibiting all five of the characteristics desired above.
The SBB is not really developed here and at best you can say it has a 4-5 week base.
The price is below B30 ema.
We did have VE on the week of 16 Nov, but that was a gap down week in price (on the daily 10.77 to 9.82 on the 13-14th Nov) this may represent exhaustion of the sellers.
HAA no breakout so no angle of attack exists yet.
Price is under $15.
In sum we may have a short tern base developing with possible volume exhaustion of sellers and proper price. Any bet is still betting on the come with respect to the above criteria.
We are on the verge of breaking the 5 week ema and the slow stochastic is turning up using 5,3 as its parameters.
IRE looks good based on above 5 criteria current vol a little anemic but expanded greatly back in Jan.
DeleteTOF, it seems to me as well we are not getting the retests we have typically been seeing. I think it is because we are in December and we are instead get more of a spikedown bottom due to tax-loss selling in a lot of this year's dogs.
ReplyDeletethat's a good point BB. I agree. I bet there are some people that only trade during this time of the year to take advantage of this.
DeleteMET got approval last night to sell their bank to GE, so another step on their way to becoming a non-bank and able to increase dividends and buyback stock.
ReplyDeleteAnnounced a miss on earnings for Q4 this morning and reduced 2013 guidance, but still P/E for 2013 at 6.5 didn't have growth built in.
Interesting that rates rose yesterday on the Fed's announcement. Perhaps they are starting to move out of the Fed's control. I still think the best way to play the normalization of interest rates is through the life insurers. You don't have to time the rise as precisely as with an inverse interest rate fund like TBT, you've got built in upside through very low valuations and you get a dividend while you wait.
2nd,
ReplyDeleteI would suspect that Gold and Silver are falling either because people were positioned for more easing than was delivered by the Fed or because the US$ and interest rates were up yesterday for similar reasons pushing gold down.
Or it could just be people unwinding positions that were taken as bets before the fed meeting and not indicating direction for the metals.
Looks like a nice open for SNE this morning up another 2.5% in premarket.
ReplyDelete