So I didn't open @ 9.60, and now it's 10.75. Is that a problem? Not really, when you consider that I could have opened TCK @ 5 instead of 3> in the end, it doesn't matter.
We were modestly disappointed by 2013 guidance, but see underlying interest rate impact unchanged. We are lowering estimates, but maintaining PO on positive news regarding bank sale. Buy."
Nice trade on SAM - that stock has been a rock star. I've looked at it a few times and it's always been too expensive and it still is to me, but they've done such a good job growing and managing their business and people are very willing to pay for growth these days.
Looks like we have another day where AAPL is making things look worse than they are. DJII is up and Nasdaq would be up around 6 if not for AAPL pulling to -11.
AGO - It looked like this one was gonna get away from me, maybe there's still a chance for me to reestablish my position?
The news from China HSBC PMI seemed positive, and Korea has been in rally mode, add to that that global markets have been looking superb so maybe the weakness we're observing is temporary and will dissipate as global growth catches hold and pulls us out of the doldrums?
Yeah, I am still torn on these guys. But, if we are going to see an energy renaissance, and it is all this non-conventional oil, then services should do well. Stocks like SLB have been hanging in pretty well, but a lot of the oil services are at traditional low valuations, other than a 2008 type crash, so should have good upside.
What I'm thinking about is to add a stock that will benefit from lower oil prices, like an airline, as kind of an offset. They will get a double benefit - lower fuel costs and their customers will have more money due to less spending at the pumps.
We continue to believe that PDS’s shares are attractively valued at under 10x forward earnings and a 52% discount to replacement value. We think the shares continue to reflect multiples closer to a cyclical trough and are pricing in a much larger rollover in NA drilling activity than is likely to materialize. At current commodity prices, we believe drilling activity will be fairly range-bound, giving us some comfort heading into next year. That said, we do not see meaningful catalysts to move the share price higher in the short term in light of macro headwinds and the resultant uncertainty in E&P cash flows.
Yeah, I rode it up to $8.40 and wished it farewell for awhile. Looks like my timing was good. I liked it better when it was an oil trust and paid that fat dividend. These things are a PITA around tax time so I hold them in my IRA. It's a keeper when it gets close to the 6's.
I'm not a big chart pattern guy except for one pattern that I almost always see work: island reversal. SNE has just completely an island reversal. I think the reason it is so powerful is because it traps so many people and the reversal makes people pushing their bet just completely throw in the towel.
/NG hasn't yet thrown off a buy signal to me. It's so close. I'm thinking they're going to take it down to the trendline which is right at $3.18ish. I'm waiting for a buy signal from RSI_EMA which to me is a crossover back above 30.
I'm kinda hoping we can push on to about $11.32 before we see a pullback from the overhead. We may see some resistance from the 50 and the even $11 number, but the yen should help with some of that.
The yen is terribly weak. The 40 year bull market is over. Think about how much of an impact that will have on SNE http://www.forecast-chart.com/exchange-japanese-yen.html
there will obviously be pullbacks along the way but I think the odds of $9.50 being the low for a long long time are high.
My suspicion/SWAG is the recent move in Yen is simply a result of government intervention? Honestly, I haven't thoroughly analyzed the phenomenon and I'm not sure I could do a good job of this anyway.
Not sure...just looking at how the chart is setting up and it sure looks like the end of a long run in the Yen. That will have profound impacts on a business that has been crushed by cheap competitors.
SHZ - Chinese stocks disturb me deeply but XIN hasn't broken down at all, I couldn't give a flux about fluorite b/c you just can't give halogens away but is this thing not dog SHZ?
I started buying YRCW back...very small position so far. I think i'm just going to put about 10% of the port in it and hold it longer term...I still think it is one of the few left with 10 bagger potential over the next 12 to 24 months.
Yeah, someone was saying that vending machine snack sales are down considerably due to the weak employment picture, fewer employees to buy peanut derivatives from those machines in the lunch room?
DMND might experience further downside or even BK before someone steps in to buy the name?
Isn't that an island cluster? Strong signal with a well defined trend (multiple years down). I would expect to fill the upward gap and add with a stop slightly below the low formed by the gap down (9.50?).
bottom line for me is that I wanted to take it off, if it keeps running great I still make money. I just seem to do better when I take profits then try to hold. Trading is like catching smoke with your hands, pass the pipe.
2nd - It looks like they're clearing everyone out of the /NG trade. A logical bottom stab is $3.18ish (trendline). I'm still waiting for confirmation of a bottom by watching the relative strength readings.
I don't know about Cheapy but I am still holding RBY and it is painful. Cheapy has been silent for a long time. Hope he did'nt jump off a Fiscal Cliff.
it's funny...AUMN is on my list of potential multi bagger setups, it's down a crap-ton and yet i can't seem to get myself to buy into PM stocks. i think it has something to do with gold/silver being in a 10 year+ bull market. the setup is solid tho.
Still holding YRCW. You never know when stocks like this are going to move, so you want to get in when prices are low and be patient (in my way of trading).
Certainly not a 10% position for me, but I think pretty good risk/reward and great upside.
I agree with you BB. The market cap on this is so ridiculously tiny when compared to others in its industry that do the amount of business they do. Obviously there are big question marks but I think the risk-reward is very favorable.
I'm holding a decent position in YRCW and SNE from the low 10's. Got a little spanked on the Z today though. I'm not thrilled with that. I've been trading around my AUMN position successfully so far.
I also have a couple of short positions doing alright. ROST has been good to me and MTH. I refer to them as Rostafarian and Meth.
Also have made some decent trades on MDBX and AVTC, although I'm underwater in one account with AVTC. Its so volatile that I just can't worry about it.
This 'the fiscal cliff is bullshit' rally is bullshit. I'm (literally) not buying it.
ReplyDeleteRe SNE> I need to open a position in an account where I am disallowed access except through a second account holder.
ReplyDeleteI plan to purchase 5000 shares. The question comes down to 'at what price will I be able to pull the trigger?'
DeleteSure, it's insane that SNE has traded down this low. So what? We didn't believe in C @ $1, nor in BAC @ $5, nor in TCK @ 5. Now it's SNE's turn.
DeleteSo I didn't open @ 9.60, and now it's 10.75. Is that a problem? Not really, when you consider that I could have opened TCK @ 5 instead of 3> in the end, it doesn't matter.
DeleteI'm looking for an OGRE in the AM. Keep your fingers crossed.
DeleteMET - BACML comments: "MetLife Inc.: Modestly disappointed by guidance, but maintaining PO"
ReplyDelete"December 14, 2012 12:06 am ET
DeleteWe were modestly disappointed by 2013 guidance, but see underlying interest rate impact unchanged. We are lowering estimates, but maintaining PO on positive news regarding bank sale. Buy."
Thanks. Sounds about right.
DeleteNice trade on SAM - that stock has been a rock star. I've looked at it a few times and it's always been too expensive and it still is to me, but they've done such a good job growing and managing their business and people are very willing to pay for growth these days.
Off slightly today, headed towards lower trend line support?
DeleteHulber saying we may be getting close to a market top:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-indicators-of-a-stock-market-top-2012-12-14
I'm in agreement that we're headed down. Not necessarily immediately, however.
DeletePretty quite across all fronts this morning.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we have another day where AAPL is making things look worse than they are. DJII is up and Nasdaq would be up around 6 if not for AAPL pulling to -11.
ReplyDeleteMITK- All of yesterdays gains...Poof.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ @ 21.61...
ReplyDeleteAlso UNG @ 18.71...
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Somehow I seriously doubt we're gonna close above the falling trend line resistance today.
ReplyDeleteAGO - It looked like this one was gonna get away from me, maybe there's still a chance for me to reestablish my position?
ReplyDeleteThe news from China HSBC PMI seemed positive, and Korea has been in rally mode, add to that that global markets have been looking superb so maybe the weakness we're observing is temporary and will dissipate as global growth catches hold and pulls us out of the doldrums?
I suppose the opposite is a possibility as well.
LNG - Hmm, looks like this one's headed for a lower trend line support test as well. Close the November gap up to $15?
ReplyDeleteBB- SLB...that doesn't help our case.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I am still torn on these guys. But, if we are going to see an energy renaissance, and it is all this non-conventional oil, then services should do well. Stocks like SLB have been hanging in pretty well, but a lot of the oil services are at traditional low valuations, other than a 2008 type crash, so should have good upside.
DeleteWhat I'm thinking about is to add a stock that will benefit from lower oil prices, like an airline, as kind of an offset. They will get a double benefit - lower fuel costs and their customers will have more money due to less spending at the pumps.
From BMO on PDS:
DeleteWe continue to believe that PDS’s shares are attractively valued at under 10x forward
earnings and a 52% discount to replacement value. We think the shares continue to
reflect multiples closer to a cyclical trough and are pricing in a much larger rollover in
NA drilling activity than is likely to materialize. At current commodity prices, we believe
drilling activity will be fairly range-bound, giving us some comfort heading into next
year. That said, we do not see meaningful catalysts to move the share price higher in the
short term in light of macro headwinds and the resultant uncertainty in E&P cash flows.
Yeah, I rode it up to $8.40 and wished it farewell for awhile. Looks like my timing was good. I liked it better when it was an oil trust and paid that fat dividend. These things are a PITA around tax time so I hold them in my IRA. It's a keeper when it gets close to the 6's.
DeleteUGAZ off @ 22.10...
ReplyDeleteSAM - BB, I was joking, I don't and haven't owned it. Coulda', shoulda'.....
ReplyDeleteUNG off @ 18.86...
ReplyDeleteNice work, Bra!
DeleteI was about ten minutes late posting the above due to the need to actually do some work while at work.
DeleteDD - Alright, I'll break down and buy this one if they can knock it back to a mid-$42 handle.
ReplyDeleteSame for AGO under $14, preferably low $13
Then I'll just sit back and wait for the global growth rebound.
What do you guys think, retrace to 1390 or so?
ReplyDeleteThat would be a nice gift, looks like some support here for the moment though.
DeleteI'm not a big chart pattern guy except for one pattern that I almost always see work: island reversal. SNE has just completely an island reversal. I think the reason it is so powerful is because it traps so many people and the reversal makes people pushing their bet just completely throw in the towel.
ReplyDelete/NG hasn't yet thrown off a buy signal to me. It's so close. I'm thinking they're going to take it down to the trendline which is right at $3.18ish. I'm waiting for a buy signal from RSI_EMA which to me is a crossover back above 30.
You know, you're so right about the IR's, and SNE's bumping up against the 50SMA resistance now as well.
DeleteI'm kinda hoping we can push on to about $11.32 before we see a pullback from the overhead. We may see some resistance from the 50 and the even $11 number, but the yen should help with some of that.
DeleteThe yen is terribly weak. The 40 year bull market is over. Think about how much of an impact that will have on SNE
Deletehttp://www.forecast-chart.com/exchange-japanese-yen.html
there will obviously be pullbacks along the way but I think the odds of $9.50 being the low for a long long time are high.
My suspicion/SWAG is the recent move in Yen is simply a result of government intervention? Honestly, I haven't thoroughly analyzed the phenomenon and I'm not sure I could do a good job of this anyway.
DeleteNot sure...just looking at how the chart is setting up and it sure looks like the end of a long run in the Yen. That will have profound impacts on a business that has been crushed by cheap competitors.
DeleteHmm, looks like shorts are beginning to cover?
ReplyDeleteSHZ - Chinese stocks disturb me deeply but XIN hasn't broken down at all, I couldn't give a flux about fluorite b/c you just can't give halogens away but is this thing not dog SHZ?
BALT - Someone mentioned Baltic the other day...
ReplyDeleteA retest of $2.7x would make for an IH&S pattern, would be nice to see $3.10 first.
DeleteI started buying YRCW back...very small position so far. I think i'm just going to put about 10% of the port in it and hold it longer term...I still think it is one of the few left with 10 bagger potential over the next 12 to 24 months.
ReplyDeleteI was half expecting you to play an DMND island reversal?
DeleteI think DMND is dead.
DeleteYeah, someone was saying that vending machine snack sales are down considerably due to the weak employment picture, fewer employees to buy peanut derivatives from those machines in the lunch room?
DeleteDMND might experience further downside or even BK before someone steps in to buy the name?
Just checking in with the usual 'Can't believe I gave UGAZ away @ 22.10.' wtf.
ReplyDeleteQuit complaining like a little girl. No, worse than a little girl..... ;)
DeleteYou're right, man. I just slapped myself a few times- that sobered me up!
DeleteSNE - What, no gap up today? That's got to be a bad omen......
ReplyDeleteSNE sold yesterday's add, if you ask why look at a chart of TEVA the last month and explain that chart.
ReplyDeleteGreat eye TOF extremely well formed island reversal, gap down gap up utopia left behind.
Coals and steels ripping wonder if that's where all the AAPL money is going.
UNG may add on close 2 out of 11 days down is alot.
Slow Stohcastics is turning up and forecasting colder weather next week.
Meant to say:
DeleteUNG may add on close 9 out of 11 days down is alot.
Isn't that an island cluster? Strong signal with a well defined trend (multiple years down). I would expect to fill the upward gap and add with a stop slightly below the low formed by the gap down (9.50?).
DeleteCC, this guy can explain better.
Deletehttp://thepatternsite.com/islandrev.html
bottom line for me is that I wanted to take it off, if it keeps running great I still make money. I just seem to do better when I take profits then try to hold.
Trading is like catching smoke with your hands, pass the pipe.
Not worth losing sleep over the weekend, bro.
Delete2nd - It looks like they're clearing everyone out of the /NG trade. A logical bottom stab is $3.18ish (trendline). I'm still waiting for confirmation of a bottom by watching the relative strength readings.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Cheapy is still sitting on RBY and how painful that must be.
ReplyDeleteThe entire junior miner 'sales pitch' from 2009-10 has, IMO, led to serious portfolio casualties.
DeleteI don't know about Cheapy but I am still holding RBY and it is painful. Cheapy has been silent for a long time. Hope he did'nt jump off a Fiscal Cliff.
Deleteit's funny...AUMN is on my list of potential multi bagger setups, it's down a crap-ton and yet i can't seem to get myself to buy into PM stocks. i think it has something to do with gold/silver being in a 10 year+ bull market. the setup is solid tho.
DeleteStill holding YRCW. You never know when stocks like this are going to move, so you want to get in when prices are low and be patient (in my way of trading).
ReplyDeleteCertainly not a 10% position for me, but I think pretty good risk/reward and great upside.
I agree with you BB. The market cap on this is so ridiculously tiny when compared to others in its industry that do the amount of business they do. Obviously there are big question marks but I think the risk-reward is very favorable.
DeleteI'm holding a decent position in YRCW and SNE from the low 10's.
DeleteGot a little spanked on the Z today though. I'm not thrilled with that.
I've been trading around my AUMN position successfully so far.
I also have a couple of short positions doing alright. ROST has been good to me and MTH. I refer to them as Rostafarian and Meth.
Also have made some decent trades on MDBX and AVTC, although I'm underwater in one account with AVTC. Its so volatile that I just can't worry about it.
It's been a little crazy on both sides.
GVSVF - Gasfrac is up 11% today. I unloaded mine just a few minutes ago for a tax loss sale.
ReplyDeleteAt first glance my overall superficial conclusion is chasers received a nice face plant this week.
ReplyDeleteWhats up for next week?
Monday. Monday will happen next week. Then we'll have Tuesday. That's all I know for now.
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/japan-strongest-equity-market-world-says-desmond-124505636.html;_ylt=AoEN8UiRkEwKtB4kLMIVlZcm2YdG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4NGQxNjRtBG1pdANCbG9nIEluZGV4BHBvcwMyOQRzZWMDTWVkaWFCbG9nSW5kZXg-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpMm9iMzh1BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANibG9nBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeletehttp://billmoyers.com/segment/bruce-bartlett-and-yves-smith-on-overhyping-the-fiscal-cliff/
ReplyDeleteWeekend viewing. Yves Smith in a rare public appearance. I've been following her blog for several months. 23 minutes.