Let me be candid. I'm tired of hearing about junior miners that may one day operate in the black! kaimu pointed out (earlier today) there is one junior miner that has been profitable since inception, and I'm reproducing his link here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=SLR.AX#symbol=slr.ax;range=2y;compare=rby+mux.to;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Next week, I plan to open a position in Silver Lake Resources for the hell of it. And I'll wager that it continues to outperform any of the junior miners we currently follow. I might even suggest that anyone holding AUMN, MUX or RBY (cough, cough) make a lateral move into SVLKF (the symbol under which Silver Lake trades in the US).
(I could further suggest that one sell AUMN and RBY and move full bore into SNE, but I'd be wasting my time. Although I'm absolutely serious about it.)
Come on, man. Holding AUMN or RBY waiting for lift-off? If you want a single-stock rocket, then SNE is a no-brainer. We're talking about SONY, for crying out loud.
ReplyDeleteHere's a little push from Sy Harding.
Deletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/12/14/why-golds-long-bull-market-may-be-history/?partner=yahootix
http://billmoyers.com/segment/bruce-bartlett-and-yves-smith-on-overhyping-the-fiscal-cliff/
ReplyDeleteWeekend viewing. Yves Smith in a rare public appearance. I've been following her blog for several months. 23 minutes.
Yes, waiting for "lift-off" can be a drag but so could missing out. Unless you can "read the tea leaves" almost on a daily basis, which I cannot do.
ReplyDeleteLots of folks camp out at Kennedy Space Center to see "lift-off".
But I'm gonna miss the fwiscal cwiff!
ReplyDelete"Monday. Monday will happen next week. Then we'll have Tuesday. That's all I know for now."
Man, what the heck is going on up there in the PNW? MCD says sales are up, you guys suddenly got the midnight munchies or somethin?
ARIA might be worth looking into.
ReplyDeleteDiversification is always a good thing. You don't just have to own one stock!
ReplyDeleteNope, totally sober, no munchies. what do I look like, a fricken fortune teller? :>)
ReplyDeleteSo what happens next week? Monday man.
Tonight I'm listening to 2nd (totally serious there) and this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G51CWlKLMyE cause I'm lucky that way.
I might pour a drink and relax with the big speakers.
Fucking ARIA was a Landry short and they got stopped out last week (or so) and then TA DA!!!! Down over 20% in a day on good(?) news. WTF? I never took a (short) position but I'm pissed I didn't.
I saw it crash and a I played the bounce for a decent dinner with the wife, that's about it.
I made money on AUMN though and got out on this weeks noise. Will certainly look at Silverlake.
I think we get a bit of a pullback in SNE at some point but holding a base position from 10.14 It may never get there again.
ARIA- Good news and BAD news. Looks like the drug works if it doesn't kill you first.
DeleteThe once-daily medicine, called Iclusig, was approved three months ahead of schedule. It treats adults with chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia, two rare blood and bone marrow diseases, the Food and Drug Administration said today in a statement. The drug will carry a warning on its informational materials, called a black box, about dangers of liver toxicity and arterial thrombosis, or blood clotting.
Delete“Investors were surprised and disappointed by the presence of a black box warning,” Phil Nadeau, an analyst with Cowen & Co. in New York, wrote in a research note today. He said investors are worried the warning will limit the drug’s use, concerns he said may be overblown given physicians’ opinions that Iclusig is “very well-tolerated.”
“The approval of Iclusig is important because it provides a treatment option to patients with CML who are not responding to other drugs, particularly those with the T315I mutation who have had few therapeutic options” Richard Pazdur, director of the Office of Hematology and Oncology Products in FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in the statement.
DeleteTyrosine kinase inhibitors include Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)’s Sprycel and Novartis AG (NOVN)’s Tasigna.
In a clinical trial where all 449 patients with various phases of the leukemias took Iclusig, 54 percent of all patients and 70 percent of those with the T315I mutation responded to the drug, the FDA said.
“While we are disappointed by the safety elements of the label, we are not changing estimates,” Nadeau said. “While understandable, we think today’s weakness is overdone and would use it as a buying opportunity in Ariad.”
People still smoke.
DeleteAnd drink.
DeleteAnd gamble.
DeleteThe real danger lies in trading the stock market.
Delete...but drinkings good for you..right..the more the better...
DeleteWell done- you caught the one anomaly in the list above.
DeleteAMBS - Up another 10%......
ReplyDeleteCame across this just now:
ReplyDeletehttp://allstarcharts.com/is-a-big-shift-coming-in-the-yen/
The odds of a lower yen improved following today's election results in Japan.
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-new-government-to-get-aggressive-2012-12-16
The commercials have gotten quite long the Yen it appears, is this an arb trade they're working on, of some kind of misleading headfake?
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=w1
Marketwatch reporting the Japanese market up 1.4% on the election results and SNE up 2.1% in Japan. Wouldn't surprise me if we got a sell the news reaction after the big moves up these have had.
DeleteI'm OK with it either way. I've turned into a true day trader, with a 'don't give a ----' attitude about overnight moves, as I'm confident another opportunity greets me each morning.
DeleteAlright, so it has nothing to do with confidence. All I know is each morning I'm greeted with another opportunity.
DeleteSomehow I've assembled enough pieces from various sources to generate a picture of a growing and vibrant Asian economy going forward.
DeleteShould I be bothered by this and not trust the gut feeling, are there too many on this side of the boat?
I love my Note II...
ReplyDeleteCitigroup has just cut rating on Apple from buy to neutral - its target price goes from 675 to 575. Demand concerns cited.
Note II?
DeleteNew Samsung phablet.
Deleteif the nikkei can get over 10,200 it looks like a really powerful setup going forward.
ReplyDeleteI've been skipping around in Jesse's book and I finally decided to just start at the beginning since I do plan on becoming a successful swing trader. I'm on page 89 now.
ReplyDeleteI have a few questions to ask but I may just send those to him directly plus I suppose I should finish the book first in case he answers my questions later on in the book.
FSLR is still doing well. I did pick up a little SDS on Friday. I have stops in place so barring a big overnight gap it won't hurt much getting stopped out.
I see the logic in picking stocks between $4-$15 now so with that in mind I started with stockcharts predefined strong volume gainer scan and I'm looking at the following charts. I'll try to read up on them tomorrow - ALXA, EGHT, GEN, TROV and YPF.
Also, I like the SNE idea a lot, but why not YCS which is the proshares ultrashort YEN, hope on board with Kyle Bass. It would be nice to see YCS trade up to 48ish and have a nice little pullback to forma a C&H pattern. I'm not in it now but it's also on the watchlist.
ALCO/Orange Juice - With Orange juice having put in a bottom, I wonder if ALCO will continue it's run?
ReplyDeleteJust as an FYI, re Japan, just saw this on business insider this AM:
ReplyDeleteThe Yen Has Already Made A Big Reversal From Last Night
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/yen-reverses-losses-2012-12#ixzz2FJHrdaQF
t3d- Your NGas trades paying off this morning.
ReplyDeletejust waking up, should know in a day or two, think I'll go back to bed.
DeleteGood move by VELT re- CFO.
ReplyDeleteConservative are disappointed Boehner went soft?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Can we close better than $2.84? I'd like that....
Boner went soft?
DeleteTurned a quick 20%+ on half my AVTC position this AM.
ReplyDeleteGeez...SVLKF does 300 shares per day AVG volume?
ReplyDeleteGetting in and out will be quite a trick.
AGO - The wild ride continues, whoever said insurance was boring? Far from it!
ReplyDeletePAL - Down, down, down.... I'm still looking for sub $1 on this one and just may get it?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Moving onto next orbit? Sure looks that way.
ReplyDeleteYeah, looks really good.
DeleteI don't trust any of this morning's action.
ReplyDeleteAre you anticipating an fiscal cliff disruption? I'm experiencing difficulty justifying downside myself, thus perhaps you're correct.
DeleteQID @ 30.44...
ReplyDeleteNot the greatest move I've made. It's a small position, so staying with it for now.
DeleteLook at Derons today at CC.
DeleteI think this is a good move with reasonable stops just in case.
dudes - just stay / get long SNE. it's not going to go up 5% ever day but i think the odds are very high that within a few years its up 200%. and the best part is you don't have to try to time little moves.
ReplyDeleteA buy signal was trigger today on Nat Gas. Time to get long UGAZ. Who has the balls?
ReplyDeleteCan you elaborate? What triggered the buy signal?
DeleteBased on a blended momentum/moving average signal i use called RSI_EMA. When it moves below 30 it's very oversold but you have to wait for it to move back above 30 to trigger a buy. It did that today. Barring a collapse into the close it is triggering a buy. Having said that I've often seen it do this then drop lower to stop out the bottom fishers and then put in a true bottom. SO a buy would be here with a stop below today's low.
DeleteUNG recovered the 200SMA for one thing, RSI(7) moved up through 30 on the daily, but the weekly chart doesn't inspire.
DeleteAnyway, the plan was to buy a pullback b/c LT NG has bottomed but these ETF's are just horrible mechanisms for anything less than a ST trade.
I bought a small amount of ENZ today at $2.63/2.64. Interesting little biotech company that won a huge lawsuit on patent infringement against Life Sciences (LIFE). With their win they're now in line to go after Roche, PerkinElmer, Orchid Cellmark, Inc. (now part of LH) and Affymetrix, Inc.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally they have an underlying business that is almost cash flow positive and they have a ton of cash on hand. Unfortunately I didn't get a big enough piece and am only sitting with a few thousand shares.
Damn man I was hoping to get more of this.
DeleteObjective Trader is expecting a blowoff top in Gold over the next 12 to 18 months. If this happens then UGLD will be one helluva trade. The longer term chart does look pretty damn good and indicative of one major move higher. UGLD could be up 200% in the next year if this plays out.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/12/gold-versus-nasdaq.html
http://objectivetrader.typepad.com/.a/6a014e5f6975b2970c017d3ed95b49970c-pi
DeleteGGN - Meanwhile one could enter GGN and collect the dividend while waiting?
DeleteUNG - RSI(7) back under 30 and CCI is -105, a rise above -100 is a potential buy signal.
ReplyDeleteHello, folks! I am back from my vacation at the Dominican Republic! Paradise lost. Oh well...
ReplyDeleteI see that good things have been happening with my positions in my absence. I should take vacations more often. :)
AUMN hit my sell limit for 20 contracts of April $5 calls at $0.60 (which I purchased at $0.45). The gain is minimal, but I have sell limit orders lined up at $0.20 increments all the way up to $1.80, and the fact that AUMN has now reached the neighborhood of my sell limit orders is very nice.
Also, while I was away, a buy limit order for 3000 shares of PNPFF was triggered at $0.85. I think that's a great long-term entry. Together with the orders triggered just before I late in late November, I have re-loaded 8000 shares at the average price of $0.89, partially replacing the 15K shares I sold between $1.14 and $1.28.
GMO hit my sell limit today at $4.00 for 1K shares. I purchased these shares somewhere between $3 and $4. I am really tired of holding shares on margin, however, and I am quite happy to reduce my margin debt with this sale (and get more margin purchasing power to continue waging my AUMN battle).
I see there has been some AUMN bashing while I was away. :) Including repeated suggestions that it is not worth waiting for a lift-off. This really puzzles me -- how come people do not see that it is a SURE bet, which is just a matter of time. And the time is fast approaching -- AUMN must be MUCH higher one year from now even at the current silver/gold prices. With last week's FOMC announcement, gold/silver MUST be much higher one year from now. So putting these two facts together, I simply cannot comprehend why someone would not put a significant part of portfolio into AUMN...
I don't recall much if any AUMN bashing really, it's only risen since you left for vacation and I'm happy to see it has. ;)
DeleteWTIC - Looks like it might want to break out to the upside?
ReplyDeleteWonder if maybe this explains recent NG weakness?
DeleteSpeaking about a blow-off top in GLD in the next 12-18 months, I would suggest that you folks stop listening to technical gold forecasts and look at the long-term fundamentals. Here is what Hussman wrote about it this weekend:
ReplyDelete"The distortions we presently observe in the economy will have significant long-term costs, but it is entirely naïve to believe that these costs should be evident precisely at the point where the wildest distortions are taking place. Federal deficits presently support about 10% of economic activity, and the primary driver of improvement in the unemployment rate has not been job creation but a plunge in labor participation, as millions of workers drop out of the labor force. In a post-credit crisis environment, and particularly with Europe’s sovereign debt in question, it should be no surprise that the world has been willing to accumulate U.S. currency and Treasury debt at near-zero interest rates. That makes debt seem benign and money creation seem without consequence. But it is absurd to point at that happy short-term outcome and dance under the illusion that escalating debt won’t matter in the longer term, or that massive money creation will be easily reversed, or that strong inflation will be avoided if it is not reversed."
Gold will keep going up until we get a HUGE spike in inflation (close to the end of the decade) and until a Volker-type figure emerges and announces a real fight against inflation.
David - Chart patterns often play out in ways in which fundamentals don't justify it. If we do get a big spike in inflation as you're expecting we might see the topping pattern in gold form well in advance. Just like when AAPL began rising well before the fundamentals showed themselves 10 years ago or when any number of things looked good fundamentally for the bottom feeder tech stocks that have recently started making their runs.
DeleteAs far as AUMN goes several of us actually said it looks good. However, to suggest it's out of the woods is a probably a bit presumptuous no? There have been a number of snags the company and stock has hit over the past year when it was all too obvious that it must go higher. You could definitely be proven right but over the past year it has been more profitable to wait for the setup to show itself in the chart than try to bottom feed and focus only on fundamentals.
By the way, I think that setup is already in place and I think you will see more gains to come.
Damn, look at VELT go. I obviously picked the wrong play.
ReplyDeleteSetting up for an island reversal. I remember looking at that a couple of weeks ago. I was almost about to email you about it actually then got sidetracked.
DeleteYeah, I commented here exactly at the bottom. My bad.
DeleteIt's best to go with what you see and intuit.
DeleteYou asked about AUMN and my answer probably dissuaded you, but your timing would have been right. Always best to listen to one's inner voice.
Added some more YRCW at $6.879. Still only a few thousand shares of it.
ReplyDeleteTepper on CNBC this morning making a pretty good case for 2013 being a very good year for stocks in case you missed it.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Tepper's Appaloochia Fund up 25% this year (35% before expenses).
DeleteHussman down 14%.
Who would you listen to for 2013?
It would be difficult listening to Hessman.
DeleteStopped out of QID @ 29.82 for a -300 loss.
ReplyDeleteZ long a little 26.25
ReplyDeleteDMND - Yet another fun day in the market, even DMND closed green.
ReplyDeletePKX - Yep, this one rose again as well.
ReplyDeleteJust shoot me now.....
T's - Pretty abrupt change in 10yr rate today, head fake?.
ReplyDelete