For no particular reason, I started to reread Napoleon Hill's 'Think and Grow Rich' about 30 minutes ago. I just picked a page at random. And this is where I landed:
'One of the most common causes of failure is the habit of quitting when one is overtaken by temporary defeat.'
'Before success comes in any man’s life, he is sure to meet with much temporary defeat, and, perhaps, some failure. When defeat overtakes a man, the easiest and most logical thing to do is to QUIT. That is exactly what the majority of men do. More than five hundred of the most successful men this country has ever known, told the author their greatest success came just one step beyond the point at which defeat had overtaken them. Failure is a trickster with a keen sense of irony and cunning. It takes great delight in tripping one when success is almost within reach.'
Lower rates are said to be currency negative. Low rates everywhere(free market intervention), can all countries simultaneously have their cake and eat it too?
This could be the perfect storm for Sony. Could this be the beginning of a big bull market run for Japan? 23 years of bear might have run its course finally...
Folks, have you noticed that once AUMN rose back above the July lows on November 21, its trading volume started to expand greatly. The average trading volume over the past 3 weeks has been higher than during any 3-week period since the fall of 2010, when QE2 was announced and AUMN quadrupled in a couple of months. Statistically, it has been observed that a rebound in price that is accompanied by a large increase in trading volume tends to be the start of a long-term uptrend, and I think that's what we are observing with AUMN right now. So the odds are that the REAL lift-off in AUMN has already begun...
If I look at the 5 year chart, appears to be making a nice long rounding bottom.
I figure it has traded at least above $19 during each of the last 6 years, so should do it again this year almost for sure.
In 2013, the valuation is still very good, profitability is good, they appear to be having success in the courts, competition is only 1 startup company (albeit probably a good one, but very small), interest rates possibly rising which would help with reinvestment, the municipalities and states are getting their finances in order which reduces claims risk.
I think this move in the Yen will have profound impacts on global trade but more importantly investing themes over the next 1 to 4 years. Everything that was in the dumps in Japan is going to reawaken if this trend continues to play out.
Personally, I think Europe must have a weaker Euro in order to balance labor costs. The aged folks in Japan should stick to vomiting on the trains on their way home from late night binge drinking.
I suppose my point is on ST basis ten up days in a row is unusual and usually stalls out there. It is quite meaningless for a LT person which I know you are not, you are an opportunist. I think the market is imprecise and the probablity of it stalling here is reasonable.
You will make more I will make less but its okay I got mine.
Since the 2009 low, it seems to me that the market is either hot or cold and moves in long uptrends for several months and then corrects for a shorter period.
Seems now we are firmly in an uptrend since mid-November, so I'd look for it to continue to at least February (3 months) before we see a sizaeable correction.
Could be different this time of course, but there's a lot of things which support this like seasonality, government resolution of the fiscal cliff, even more global liquidity with Japan hoping on board now, Europe moving out of crisis, etc.
So may be hard to find good entry points for the next while.
This change in government in China may end up being a lot more important than people think and the key to stock outperformance for a number of years.
They are looking to grow at 7.5% a year and make it of "higher quality" as they transition from a export-focused to consumer oriented in this growth.
If you think about that, it means less competition, more jobs and better margins for manufacturers around the world. It also means better opportunities for our exporters of consumer-type products. Third, should increase demand for consumer services like travel, healthcare, etc.
I would see Japan being a major beneficiary of this because of their close trade relationship with China (once this island issue gets worked out), but also the US and Europe. Maybe even Canada too as people start driving more and building nicer houses, etc.
Yeah, and it sounds like the new government speeds up this trend. I guess the trick is to figure out what the next thing China will want more of is as getting ahead of that is a good money-maker.
Some will say QE4 is not working, but I think it is rather that fear is coming out of the market and money is moving into riskier products because people know the fed has their back now.
And I would say rising rates will be market positive for quite some time (2015?) before they get so high that they start hurting things.
2nd - patience is the hardest thing to have in investing. we all know this but it's so damn hard to practice.
The move in Gold today is exactly what you want if you believe the 15 month or so consolidation pattern breaks out to a massive blowoff top. A break below 1,670 wipes out a lot of stops...then they can drive it down to the trendline from the May lows and then start the rip higher with far fewer people on board.
the wisest move is to ignore the bullshit in the media...just turn off the TV and stop reading nonsense about the economy. so many people have focused on that over the past 4 years and where has it gotten them? why not focus on what works in the markets. everyone wants to be the smartest guy in the room. i'd rather be the most profitable.
Hard to know with all the hot money sloshing in and out of the markets on every scripted sound bite but I sure wish I'd been smart enough to just buy $SPX 666 with both fists.
On the monthly chart just based purely on relative strength + moving averages SNE has triggered a buy signal. If next month is green then it will confirm it. NOK had a buy signal two months ago at $2.6. It hit $4.27 today.
Yeah, I kinda see it from the perspective where the Japanese government's been struggling with turning things around for nearly three decades, it might be safe to wait another month or so just to see if this isn't just another bounce to the upper trend line on sound bite rhetoric.
Japan couldn't turn things around during global good times, wonder how they're likely to perform now during a more complex set of circumstances?
i like this method a lot if you're looking for income from your investments: http://seekingalpha.com/article/276593-25-dividend-stocks-with-magic-formula-characteristics?source=email_watchlist
There are also 2 closed-end Japan funds trading at about a 12% to NAV discount - JEQ and JOF (small cap). If Japan does go, the discount will likely reduce as people want to get into this market and you get the double upside of the Japan market going up plus the discount reducing.
SID the kid done with it's consolidation pattern on its way to $10 next year. Pays a 7% divvy. Brazilian buildout in prep for the olympics will be the theme.
CSX looks good down here - being punished for it's high coal exposure, but cheapest of the rails and reasonable value here now with low coal volumes and should have good upside if coal turns back up.
I believe it is money coming out of the safety trade now that people are getting confident the fiscal cliff gets done, along with the other worldwide good news.
Take a look at the 1 month chart of the TLT (20 year treasury) compared to GLD. Both falling in a similar fashion. People are starting to think that Armageddon is off the table.
No idea how far this goes, but I suspect it runs for a while.
And another thing which makes me think it is the end of the safety trade is that the LQD (investment grade bonds) are also falling as they had become a hiding place, but the HYG (high yield bonds) are still going up.
I read this as people want out of safety and are willing to take more risk.
By 3Q 2013 AUMN is planning to be producing at the annual rate of 1.6M to 2M AgEq oz at the cost of $15/oz. By 4Q 2014, they are planning to be producing at the annual rate of 3.5M to 4M AgEq oz at the cost of $7/oz. So when do you think the market will take its price to $20?
So, if assume Yahoo is correct and there are 42 million shares (not sure about option dilution), then even silver at $25 per ounce, would give you EPS in the $1.70 range which should be enough to get the stock to $20 assuming they don't have cost overruns like many do. So, with silver still well over $30, you've got a good margin of safety there as well.
Not that it will matter in the short term at all if silver keeps dropping of course.
Yep -- as long as AUMN has a negative EPS (for the next few months), its price can be taken down arbitrarily low, with the recent 50% pullback off the September high being an example. However, every severe shakedown in AUMN should be bought, since one year from now it will be viewed as a totally different company.
2nd_ave, T3D -- it is time for me to own up to my promises. A year and a half ago we made a bet, where I expected ECU to double by the end of 2012, going from $1.12 to $2.25. After the merger with AUMN took place, $1 on ECU became $20 on AUMN, but then instead of doubling, AUMN went down 75%. Oh well... :)
If you send me your address (dive1734 at yahoo), I can send you your bottle of Nadurra, which you should receive just in time for the holidays.
Or, if you want to get two bottles each :), we can make a new bet about AUMN at least doubling one year from now, rising above $10 by the end of 2013. If it does, then we just call it even. If it doesn't, I'll send two bottles to each of you.
David - I brought up the idea that they're hitting the stops only if you believe in the blow off top in Gold that is to come. I personally really am not sure...my whole problem all along has been that there is really no way to truly value the price of gold or metals in general.
"there is really no way to truly value the price of gold or metals in general."
I guess price is primarily a supply and demand issue, along with cost to produce. 7 years or more back I was hearing about lack of supply, perhaps capital was flowing into the industry? Last year (2011) I read reports of warehouses stacked to the rafters, along with claims this was being kept hush-hush.
A rush to provide diagnostic testing, another C. difficile test coming to the market:
QDEL - "QDEL, a leading provider of rapid diagnostic testing solutions and cellular-based virology assays, announced today that it has received 510(k) clearance from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the sale of Quidel's non-instrumented molecular diagnostic test -- the AmpliVue C. difficile Assay -- for the detection of toxigenic Clostridium difficile bacterial DNA. Detection of the pathogen is achieved using a hand-held, fully contained cassette that combines isothermal Helicase Dependent Amplification (HDA) with its lateral flow detection technology."
Anyone catch the move in YOKU? Took it right down to the all time low within a few pennies than ripped it 40% higher in 7 days. How 'bout them apples!? That's what I'm saying about Gold: Today's move below recent lows 6 weeks ago stops people out, then it might just crash through the uptrend from May and possibly to as low as the May lows, only for it to rip to new all time highs.
TOF, speaking about valuing gold, here is an interesting bit of information.
"Below the Bank of England, 4,600 tons of gold are stored on behalf of the central banks of many countries around the world. The Bank's precious metal reserves are worth $315bn according to the mostly recently published figures. Starting January 1, during every four months, the Fed will inject more $$ into the financial system than the value of all the gold held beneath the Bank of England on behalf of multiple central banks around the world."
"in roughly 6,000 years of recorded history, approximately $8 trillion of gold (at today's price) has been mined. On August 31, 2008, the combined value of the balance sheets of the US, UK, ECB, Germany, France, China, and Switzerland stood at $8.16 trillion. By October 31, 2011, that total had reached $15.05 trillion. In other words, it took eight central banks about five years to fabricate the equivalent value of 6,000 years' worth of gold production and, since then, they have added another couple of trillion dollars."
So do we have a bubble in gold or has it become greatly undervalued relative to the outstanding currency?
David, In my opinion the gold to currency argument is a myth perpetuated by the gold bugs. All the charts they show you start around 2000 when the bull started, so anything that increased the last decade shows correlation with gold - it is very dangerous to trust a lot of these charts. Money printing occurred all through the 80's and 90's with the price of gold going down.
The real value of gold, like anything else, is set by what the marginal buyer is willing to pay and the marginal seller is willing to take. More people want gold, price goes up; less people want it, goes down.
Now you can argue that more money printing creates more demand, which is true if people lose faith in the currency, but in general, most people would rather own 4.5 shares of AAPL than an ounce of gold. Assuming the world environment continues to normalize, and economies get better, and inflation stays tame, I think you will see people selling gold to buy income producing assets.
There will be a floor price for gold, but that will be set more by the miners who will reduce production of higher priced mines as the price drops until you get a supply demand equilibrium.
Surely we're fast approaching another inflection point in miners. I can say that without knowing the closing prices of gold or miners. I need only scan the post titles displayed you-know-where. 'Nuff said.
Not sure if its public knowledge outside of the Twitter-verse but old Jesse got run over by a pack of reindeer or a Chevy (can't recall which)while running last week. Spent the past few days formulating a plan of attack.
Feeling much better but just a royal pain in the ass (and yes...you should see my ass...brutal lol)
Anyway, I'm adding some reviews to my site. 2nd- Do you mind if I include:
" Hands down the best read on trading in a long, long time. I've only scanned through most of it, but I did read Chapter One in its entirety (I always head for autobiographical sections first if available, and yours really stands out).
You now have the peace of mind that comes with writing it all down and passing it on before time runs out, bro ;)"
Feel free to email me. You can add name/title/profession (Brewmaster, Anchor Steam) or even edit the quote. If anyone else wants their name and quote to live on in perpetuity, feel free to let me know.
On a side note- SONY, SONY, SONY!
I had a friend from Intel call me in July saying SNE was the buy of the century. I said, yes, as soon as the chart lines up. I spoke to him last week and I brought up SNE. He said, he wouldn't touch it. "Nothing at all on the horizon...product cycle is dead".
He hasn't read my book:)
I spent all of 15 seconds arguing with him and I said, "you know what? You're probably right. I agree....its dead money." A successful attempt to end the conversation immediately.
I then called my attorney/friend to load the IRA boat w/ SNE for the upcoming 12-15 month Playstation 4/Gen Y upgrade cycle media blitz. He said, "But they have nothing new"
Jesse- I crashed my bike when you were AOL...felt like I got hit by a car. Hope your feeling better than I was. Still have a good sized hemotoma on my hip.
I think I found a reference to me on page 119, "BUY THE DUMB FRIEND INDICATOR". Now I know you guys are selling when I'm buying.
I want to give an update on my first SUPERSTOCK trade. I now have a 59% return on my total initial investment in AMBS and I still have 2500 shares. Of course 59% sounds so much better than $218.00. 2nd was talking about patience today. There's no way I could have had the patience to wait this trade out if I had invested $5k or $10k. If AMBS goes up to $.10, I can sell and recoup my $500 loss on SDS which was stopped out today.
Also started a small position in RTK based on my buddy's research. No stops, just smaller position size to manage the risk.
That's my last buddy trade and HOPEFULLY my last SDS/SSO trade. From now on I'll be using Landry's 102030 MA setups, island reversals, higher MACD crossovers with lower prices, and Jesse's Superstocks methods. It's going to take me a few weeks/months to get Jesse's method down but that's ok as long as I'm moving forward.
Nothing worse than an unbroken string of wins. It leads to complacence + one forgets how to take losses.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.latimes.com/entertainment/gossip/la-et-mg-michael-douglas-son-beaten-cameron-douglas-prison-20121217,0,1959187.story
ReplyDeleteDon't do the crime if you can't do the time. All the same, Dad must be climbing the walls over this.
For no particular reason, I started to reread Napoleon Hill's 'Think and Grow Rich' about 30 minutes ago. I just picked a page at random. And this is where I landed:
ReplyDelete'One of the most common causes of failure is the habit of quitting when one is overtaken by temporary defeat.'
'Before success comes in any man’s life, he is sure to meet with much temporary
defeat, and, perhaps, some failure. When defeat overtakes a man, the easiest and
most logical thing to do is to QUIT. That is exactly what the majority of men do.
More than five hundred of the most successful men this country has ever known,
told the author their greatest success came just one step beyond the point at which
defeat had overtaken them. Failure is a trickster with a keen sense of irony and
cunning. It takes great delight in tripping one when success is almost within reach.'
Remind you of anything? How many times have we sold out just prior?
DeleteHow many bottoms have I watched come and go? You'd think I could sniff out the good ones by now!
DeleteIs it possible Obama goes soft on the conservatives by agreeing to increase taxes only on the two top income earners?
ReplyDelete2 of them? Works for me!
DeleteThey have to generate revenue somehow, only those who actually earn income are eligible subjects.
DeleteWell, they can also keep stealing from the savers but sooner or later there'll be a revolt.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-17/abe-shift-on-boj-signals-japan-may-be-approaching-volcker-moment.html
ReplyDeleteGot SNE?
Lower rates are said to be currency negative. Low rates everywhere(free market intervention), can all countries simultaneously have their cake and eat it too?
DeleteIt depends on if they all do the same thing at the same time! I'm thinking we may find out the answer to your question.
DeleteThis could be the perfect storm for Sony. Could this be the beginning of a big bull market run for Japan? 23 years of bear might have run its course finally...
DeleteFolks, have you noticed that once AUMN rose back above the July lows on November 21, its trading volume started to expand greatly. The average trading volume over the past 3 weeks has been higher than during any 3-week period since the fall of 2010, when QE2 was announced and AUMN quadrupled in a couple of months. Statistically, it has been observed that a rebound in price that is accompanied by a large increase in trading volume tends to be the start of a long-term uptrend, and I think that's what we are observing with AUMN right now. So the odds are that the REAL lift-off in AUMN has already begun...
ReplyDeleteI hope you're correct, David!
Deletetof was right about UNG yesterday. He was right about SNE last week. jesse even pointed out recently that tof has it right.
ReplyDeleteEven BAC has run away from me. Now 11.23.
ReplyDeleteYou and Meradith...
DeleteYeah, nobody does well if banks don't do well and this began as a financial crisis.
DeletePlatinum only $90 from gold and catching up, it seems.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so Obama offered to increase taxes on the top 400 income earners?
ReplyDeleteGot gas?
ReplyDeletePatience.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Sheesh, another -6.5%?
ReplyDeleteA clear example of 'oversold can get more oversold.'
DeleteNative Indian tribes were placed on reservations long ago, in the US.
DeleteAGO - Starting to look like $16 might be in the bag.
ReplyDeleteIf I look at the 5 year chart, appears to be making a nice long rounding bottom.
DeleteI figure it has traded at least above $19 during each of the last 6 years, so should do it again this year almost for sure.
In 2013, the valuation is still very good, profitability is good, they appear to be having success in the courts, competition is only 1 startup company (albeit probably a good one, but very small), interest rates possibly rising which would help with reinvestment, the municipalities and states are getting their finances in order which reduces claims risk.
I am very happy to hold on here for a while.
I'm still hoping for one last pullback on this one but this seems less likely as the days click by.
DeleteMiners.
ReplyDeleteIs there a case to be made for buying RBY?
ReplyDeleteGMO might run into a similar issue, native tribes are concerned over impact to the high desert pine nut harvest.
Delete(I'm under the assumption RBY is currently facing issues with local tribes.)
UGAZ up 8% today. Who got in?
ReplyDeleteYou guys see the chart of USD/JPY? About to break out.
I sold a little of the AMBS at $0.063...still holding a bunch. Bad boy is up 250% in past 2 weeks. Wow.
I think this move in the Yen will have profound impacts on global trade but more importantly investing themes over the next 1 to 4 years. Everything that was in the dumps in Japan is going to reawaken if this trend continues to play out.
DeleteFundamentally it doesnt make sense which is why it makes sense.
DeletePersonally, I think Europe must have a weaker Euro in order to balance labor costs. The aged folks in Japan should stick to vomiting on the trains on their way home from late night binge drinking.
DeleteSNE can move manufacturing elsewhere in Asia.
SNE let go at 11.05 10 up days in a row is alot and it has a gap below. Be looking to buy back in at 10.50ish if it gets there.
ReplyDeleteTime will tell, looks great LT.
Nice work, T3D! ;)
DeleteT3d - I only see 5 up days in a row and really yesterday was a consolidation day. It had 14 out of 18 down months in a row.
DeleteMonth of DEC seems to make things look easier rather have TOF's 250%!!!
DeleteZ they hit my bid out of that too. I like singles and doubles.
Mkt just wants to go higher.
SNE yeah TOF kind of misspoke, IB's charts show that but FIDO shows 8 of 10 up days.
DeleteLooks great LT, I just trade a different time horizon and do not seem to have the "PATIENCE" to sit.
Kinda wish I did.
I suppose my point is on ST basis ten up days in a row is unusual and usually stalls out there. It is quite meaningless for a LT person which I know you are not, you are an opportunist. I think the market is imprecise and the probablity of it stalling here is reasonable.
DeleteYou will make more I will make less but its okay I got mine.
Sure wish this blog had a spell checker.
Come on, TOF is a buy and put away for 2 years kind of guy! Won't be selling his SNE until $30.
DeleteBB your right, I should let TOF speak for himself, my bad.
DeleteWe are all different, what do we expect from the human species?
Blessings to all.
Patience. I'm posting these reminders for my own benefit.
ReplyDeleteSince the 2009 low, it seems to me that the market is either hot or cold and moves in long uptrends for several months and then corrects for a shorter period.
DeleteSeems now we are firmly in an uptrend since mid-November, so I'd look for it to continue to at least February (3 months) before we see a sizaeable correction.
Could be different this time of course, but there's a lot of things which support this like seasonality, government resolution of the fiscal cliff, even more global liquidity with Japan hoping on board now, Europe moving out of crisis, etc.
So may be hard to find good entry points for the next while.
This change in government in China may end up being a lot more important than people think and the key to stock outperformance for a number of years.
ReplyDeleteThey are looking to grow at 7.5% a year and make it of "higher quality" as they transition from a export-focused to consumer oriented in this growth.
If you think about that, it means less competition, more jobs and better margins for manufacturers around the world. It also means better opportunities for our exporters of consumer-type products. Third, should increase demand for consumer services like travel, healthcare, etc.
I would see Japan being a major beneficiary of this because of their close trade relationship with China (once this island issue gets worked out), but also the US and Europe. Maybe even Canada too as people start driving more and building nicer houses, etc.
Consumerism in China has been a long standing thesis, I think it does come eventually already pork and meat consumption have increased tremendously.
DeleteYeah, and it sounds like the new government speeds up this trend. I guess the trick is to figure out what the next thing China will want more of is as getting ahead of that is a good money-maker.
DeleteThe one bright spot for me this morning> cutting my losses on QID yesterday @ 29.8x. Currently bidding 29.17.
ReplyDeleteNice to see the 10-year over 1.8%.
ReplyDeleteSome will say QE4 is not working, but I think it is rather that fear is coming out of the market and money is moving into riskier products because people know the fed has their back now.
And I would say rising rates will be market positive for quite some time (2015?) before they get so high that they start hurting things.
XPP - Is this thing rolling over?
ReplyDeleteMarket doing its best to frustrate the majority here, IMO.
ReplyDeleteWTF is happening with miners?
2nd - patience is the hardest thing to have in investing. we all know this but it's so damn hard to practice.
ReplyDeleteThe move in Gold today is exactly what you want if you believe the 15 month or so consolidation pattern breaks out to a massive blowoff top. A break below 1,670 wipes out a lot of stops...then they can drive it down to the trendline from the May lows and then start the rip higher with far fewer people on board.
Right. I just have to make sure I'm not confusing inaction with patience. It's 'easy' sitting in cash pretending I'm being patient.
Deletethe wisest move is to ignore the bullshit in the media...just turn off the TV and stop reading nonsense about the economy. so many people have focused on that over the past 4 years and where has it gotten them? why not focus on what works in the markets. everyone wants to be the smartest guy in the room. i'd rather be the most profitable.
DeleteSure feels like they're head-butting shorts just prior to taking the indexes down.
ReplyDeleteHard to know with all the hot money sloshing in and out of the markets on every scripted sound bite but I sure wish I'd been smart enough to just buy $SPX 666 with both fists.
DeleteGold - Down $20, how's this chart lookin' now?
ReplyDeleteHanging by its finger nails, 1677 prvious low, if we break may go to 1600 my best guess.
DeleteIt sure was nice of them for a change not to gap it down $100 on a Monday just prior to NY open this time around.
DeleteNat Gas companies are working. XCO having a nice day. That GMXR chart looks extremely enticing.
ReplyDeleteSo are the life insurers with MFC and MET up 2.5%, probably lifting off the rise in rates.
DeleteInteresting that Nat gas and oil up, but Gold down, but I guess gold is more the fear trade and energy is the recovery economy trade. Copper is flat.
On the monthly chart just based purely on relative strength + moving averages SNE has triggered a buy signal. If next month is green then it will confirm it. NOK had a buy signal two months ago at $2.6. It hit $4.27 today.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I kinda see it from the perspective where the Japanese government's been struggling with turning things around for nearly three decades, it might be safe to wait another month or so just to see if this isn't just another bounce to the upper trend line on sound bite rhetoric.
DeleteJapan couldn't turn things around during global good times, wonder how they're likely to perform now during a more complex set of circumstances?
i like this method a lot if you're looking for income from your investments:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/276593-25-dividend-stocks-with-magic-formula-characteristics?source=email_watchlist
Very old article but the strategy interests me.
DeleteEWJ pays a 2% dividend. If you're not looking to take on much risk I think that will do quite well over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteThere are also 2 closed-end Japan funds trading at about a 12% to NAV discount - JEQ and JOF (small cap). If Japan does go, the discount will likely reduce as people want to get into this market and you get the double upside of the Japan market going up plus the discount reducing.
DeleteSID the kid done with it's consolidation pattern on its way to $10 next year. Pays a 7% divvy. Brazilian buildout in prep for the olympics will be the theme.
ReplyDeleteCSX looks good down here - being punished for it's high coal exposure, but cheapest of the rails and reasonable value here now with low coal volumes and should have good upside if coal turns back up.
ReplyDeleteHaven't bought, still thinking...
What a divergence between miners and the broader market!
ReplyDeleteI believe it is money coming out of the safety trade now that people are getting confident the fiscal cliff gets done, along with the other worldwide good news.
DeleteTake a look at the 1 month chart of the TLT (20 year treasury) compared to GLD. Both falling in a similar fashion. People are starting to think that Armageddon is off the table.
No idea how far this goes, but I suspect it runs for a while.
Tell me about it... :) I hope TOF is right about this being a stop-running raid before the final lift-off for gold/silver.
DeleteAnd another thing which makes me think it is the end of the safety trade is that the LQD (investment grade bonds) are also falling as they had become a hiding place, but the HYG (high yield bonds) are still going up.
DeleteI read this as people want out of safety and are willing to take more risk.
David,
DeleteWhat price does AUMN need on silver to justify the $20 price you are looking for?
By 3Q 2013 AUMN is planning to be producing at the annual rate of 1.6M to 2M AgEq oz at the cost of $15/oz. By 4Q 2014, they are planning to be producing at the annual rate of 3.5M to 4M AgEq oz at the cost of $7/oz. So when do you think the market will take its price to $20?
DeleteSo, if assume Yahoo is correct and there are 42 million shares (not sure about option dilution), then even silver at $25 per ounce, would give you EPS in the $1.70 range which should be enough to get the stock to $20 assuming they don't have cost overruns like many do. So, with silver still well over $30, you've got a good margin of safety there as well.
DeleteNot that it will matter in the short term at all if silver keeps dropping of course.
Yep -- as long as AUMN has a negative EPS (for the next few months), its price can be taken down arbitrarily low, with the recent 50% pullback off the September high being an example. However, every severe shakedown in AUMN should be bought, since one year from now it will be viewed as a totally different company.
DeleteNSPH - Are we going to test the Nov 19th candle, target $2.51, on yesterday's double bottom breakdown?
ReplyDeleteWell, we did close the Dec 7th gap up from $2.71, so maybe that's the obligation that needed tending?
Delete2nd_ave, T3D -- it is time for me to own up to my promises. A year and a half ago we made a bet, where I expected ECU to double by the end of 2012, going from $1.12 to $2.25. After the merger with AUMN took place, $1 on ECU became $20 on AUMN, but then instead of doubling, AUMN went down 75%. Oh well... :)
ReplyDeleteIf you send me your address (dive1734 at yahoo), I can send you your bottle of Nadurra, which you should receive just in time for the holidays.
Or, if you want to get two bottles each :), we can make a new bet about AUMN at least doubling one year from now, rising above $10 by the end of 2013. If it does, then we just call it even. If it doesn't, I'll send two bottles to each of you.
Which one do you prefer?
Double or nothing.
DeleteIt's a deal!
DeleteDavid - I brought up the idea that they're hitting the stops only if you believe in the blow off top in Gold that is to come. I personally really am not sure...my whole problem all along has been that there is really no way to truly value the price of gold or metals in general.
ReplyDeleteso it's best to look at the charts and see what kinds of setups it is presenting. just like currencies.
Delete"there is really no way to truly value the price of gold or metals in general."
DeleteI guess price is primarily a supply and demand issue, along with cost to produce. 7 years or more back I was hearing about lack of supply, perhaps capital was flowing into the industry? Last year (2011) I read reports of warehouses stacked to the rafters, along with claims this was being kept hush-hush.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/better-watch-out-insiders-are-selling-2012-12-18?link=MW_popular
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'....
You never know, but good chance it is tax related and insiders are just trying to get ahead of the increase in rates.
DeleteSID - I guess GGB might go along with it.
ReplyDeleteLet me be the first to admit: I don't have a ----ing clue what's happening in the market right now.
ReplyDeleteWith the exception of tof, every commentator I follow has been wrong.
DeleteA rush to provide diagnostic testing, another C. difficile test coming to the market:
ReplyDeleteQDEL - "QDEL, a leading provider of rapid diagnostic testing solutions and cellular-based virology assays, announced today that it has received 510(k) clearance from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the sale of Quidel's non-instrumented molecular diagnostic test -- the AmpliVue C. difficile Assay -- for the detection of toxigenic Clostridium difficile bacterial DNA. Detection of the pathogen is achieved using a hand-held, fully contained cassette that combines isothermal Helicase Dependent Amplification (HDA) with its lateral flow detection technology."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/quidel-receives-fda-clearance-amplivue-180000996.html
Boy, you guys are a bunch of chatty kattys...can I get a 3 sentence consolidation?
ReplyDelete"Let me be the first to admit: I don't have a ----ing clue what's happening in the market right now."
DeleteActually that probably covers it. Thanks.
QID @ 28.89. Just for the hell of it.
ReplyDeleteAt some point, I have to ask, 'How many buyers remain?'
DeleteYeah, I know. It's shorts like me that prop up this market.
DeleteKinda have to wonder how many under performing funds are playing ketchup or face termination for non-performance.
DeleteRe: Junior Gold Miners and Capital Destruction
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by cheapy (515 comments) on Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:37 #116169(in reply to #116168)
Looks to me like junior miners don't know anything else other than how to destroy their shareholders capital.
They truly are experts at destroying us............
Wonder if cheapy made it to Florida?
DeleteAdded QID @ 28.69...
ReplyDeleteAnyone catch the move in YOKU? Took it right down to the all time low within a few pennies than ripped it 40% higher in 7 days. How 'bout them apples!? That's what I'm saying about Gold: Today's move below recent lows 6 weeks ago stops people out, then it might just crash through the uptrend from May and possibly to as low as the May lows, only for it to rip to new all time highs.
ReplyDeleteIf You're long SNE (or anything Japan really) you gotta love this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p08478023205
TOF, speaking about valuing gold, here is an interesting bit of information.
ReplyDelete"Below the Bank of England, 4,600 tons of gold are stored on behalf of the central banks of many countries around the world. The Bank's precious metal reserves are worth $315bn according to the mostly recently published figures. Starting January 1, during every four months, the Fed will inject more $$ into the financial system than the value of all the gold held beneath the Bank of England on behalf of multiple central banks around the world."
"in roughly 6,000 years of recorded history, approximately $8 trillion of gold (at today's price) has been mined. On August 31, 2008, the combined value of the balance sheets of the US, UK, ECB, Germany, France, China, and Switzerland stood at $8.16 trillion. By October 31, 2011, that total had reached $15.05 trillion. In other words, it took eight central banks about five years to fabricate the equivalent value of 6,000 years' worth of gold production and, since then, they have added another couple of trillion dollars."
DeleteSo do we have a bubble in gold or has it become greatly undervalued relative to the outstanding currency?
Silver and gold are trading at twice the price they were half a decade ago.
DeleteDavid,
DeleteIn my opinion the gold to currency argument is a myth perpetuated by the gold bugs. All the charts they show you start around 2000 when the bull started, so anything that increased the last decade shows correlation with gold - it is very dangerous to trust a lot of these charts. Money printing occurred all through the 80's and 90's with the price of gold going down.
The real value of gold, like anything else, is set by what the marginal buyer is willing to pay and the marginal seller is willing to take. More people want gold, price goes up; less people want it, goes down.
Now you can argue that more money printing creates more demand, which is true if people lose faith in the currency, but in general, most people would rather own 4.5 shares of AAPL than an ounce of gold. Assuming the world environment continues to normalize, and economies get better, and inflation stays tame, I think you will see people selling gold to buy income producing assets.
There will be a floor price for gold, but that will be set more by the miners who will reduce production of higher priced mines as the price drops until you get a supply demand equilibrium.
David- I agree with BB. Be careful- hang around certain circles too long, and you start to believe the bullshit. I know I did.
DeleteSurely we're fast approaching another inflection point in miners. I can say that without knowing the closing prices of gold or miners. I need only scan the post titles displayed you-know-where. 'Nuff said.
ReplyDeleteNLY - "Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Announces 4th Quarter 2012 Dividend of $0.45 per Share"
ReplyDeleteAn 11% cut, $0.05 less
Not sure if its public knowledge outside of the Twitter-verse but old Jesse got run over by a pack of reindeer or a Chevy (can't recall which)while running last week. Spent the past few days formulating a plan of attack.
ReplyDeleteFeeling much better but just a royal pain in the ass (and yes...you should see my ass...brutal lol)
Anyway, I'm adding some reviews to my site. 2nd- Do you mind if I include:
" Hands down the best read on trading in a long, long time. I've only scanned through most of it, but I did read Chapter One in its entirety (I always head for autobiographical sections first if available, and yours really stands out).
You now have the peace of mind that comes with writing it all down and passing it on before time runs out, bro ;)"
Feel free to email me. You can add name/title/profession (Brewmaster, Anchor Steam) or even edit the quote. If anyone else wants their name and quote to live on in perpetuity, feel free to let me know.
On a side note- SONY, SONY, SONY!
I had a friend from Intel call me in July saying SNE was the buy of the century. I said, yes, as soon as the chart lines up. I spoke to him last week and I brought up SNE. He said, he wouldn't touch it. "Nothing at all on the horizon...product cycle is dead".
He hasn't read my book:)
I spent all of 15 seconds arguing with him and I said, "you know what? You're probably right. I agree....its dead money." A successful attempt to end the conversation immediately.
I then called my attorney/friend to load the IRA boat w/ SNE for the upcoming 12-15 month Playstation 4/Gen Y upgrade cycle media blitz. He said, "But they have nothing new"
I said "Exactly" :)
And since my attempt at humor is generally pretty poor- Yes, I got hit by a car :)
DeleteGo ahead and use the quote. I often edit my comments, but once I let go of them, that's it- one take and done.
DeleteSorry to hear about your latest adventure. Are you in a hospital, or were you able to walk away from it?
I hope you're okay Jesse, I'm still digesting your book.
DeleteJesse- I crashed my bike when you were AOL...felt like I got hit by a car. Hope your feeling better than I was. Still have a good sized hemotoma on my hip.
DeleteI think I found a reference to me on page 119, "BUY THE DUMB FRIEND INDICATOR". Now I know you guys are selling when I'm buying.
ReplyDeleteI want to give an update on my first SUPERSTOCK trade. I now have a 59% return on my total initial investment in AMBS and I still have 2500 shares. Of course 59% sounds so much better than $218.00. 2nd was talking about patience today. There's no way I could have had the patience to wait this trade out if I had invested $5k or $10k. If AMBS goes up to $.10, I can sell and recoup my $500 loss on SDS which was stopped out today.
Bought my first quarter position of SNE today.
ReplyDeleteAlso started a small position in RTK based on my buddy's research. No stops, just smaller position size to manage the risk.
That's my last buddy trade and HOPEFULLY my last SDS/SSO trade. From now on I'll be using Landry's 102030 MA setups, island reversals, higher MACD crossovers with lower prices, and Jesse's Superstocks methods. It's going to take me a few weeks/months to get Jesse's method down but that's ok as long as I'm moving forward.
Ut-ho David...we're screwed...
ReplyDeletehttp://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/11-stocks-with-significant-institutional-and-insider-buying/
new post
ReplyDelete