I see long bets across the board, with chips continuing to fall on every conceivable sector. I'm standing to the left of the stickman nursing a Don't Pass bet.
My feeling is we're experiencing profit taking ahead of capital gains tax increases, I know that sounds silly, as if I have a semblance of what's actually going on behind curtain #2.
This article completely overlooked the AGCO insider buys: http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/11-stocks-with-significant-institutional-and-insider-buying/
MET stock will almost certainly do well if interest rates continue to rise - today we are seeing a pullback in rates, but we've been straight up the last couple weeks, so hopefully the pause that refreshes.
In their last earnings presentation, they are forecasting mid-range earnings for 2013 of $5.15 per share on a $33 stock price, so p/e of 6.5 and 70% of book and growing well outside the US.
Problem is that every time rates go down, it get hit, even though the CEO said if rates stay down where they were, it would only hurt earnings by $0.05.
OK trying some XCO for the LT. But we know how that usually goes.
The one concept I like the most of Jesse's book is buying stocks that have been in long bases and have broken out or look to have put in a double bottom. When you look at many of his picks they have been dogs since 08/09 and with the market elevated from that point makes sense.
I suppose the key is "Patience" with the right mix of risk management. Kinda of Templeton like.
By the way Jesse don not eat veggie and run. I hope you are recovering well, when I was a kid my best friend Cheryl got hit by a car at age 14, she was blackk and blue for months.
NSC - Weekly looks like it's turning up, and pincher on daily worked just like it's supposed to (Daily RSI(7) is pretty high now though). Daily EMA's are turning up.
Yeah that's interesting, have traded it earlier this year. They recently had a great offering but was for institutions only that paid 8% while you wait and it rallied off of that.
In my mind that is still a short base, the ones I'm talking about are like X or IRE or at least 12 months.
Bought back my 1/3 shares of SNE at $11.05. Trying to get cute when I know this will be significantly higher 6 months from now is a stupid thing to do.
I think this is all pre-holiday doldrums. The MSM will blab about the budget and cliffs blah, blah, blah. It's all BS. If we go to sequestration who cares? I think ther market it taking 2nd's cue, it's time for the holiday and to relax. The market will still be here Jan 1st if the Mayan's are wrong.
GMO is retesting its previous resistance at $3.90, which has now become the support. So any of you TA traders out there might want to take a position now and set a stop just below $3.90...
The bet, been thinking about that, I thought we called it a draw. However, if it makes you happy, if you guys get together over this years holiday season for a get to at a BYOB place you can bring a bottle of Nadurra to the party and drinks are on T3D.
If not, why not buy the bottle, and you can have it courtesy of T3D with the amount of conviction you have exibited you deserve it.
Thank you for the kind offer, T3D! If AUMN rises to $7 before April OpEx (and I am sure it will!), I'll call together all TT traders in California and treat everyone to Nadurra courtesy of T3D!
I still think we're heading to the 1,500 area...any dips will be relatively shallow and should be bought. I do see a nice pullback early next year. I think part of this whole phenomena will be because we're getting a spike in income from higher dividends in December which will then go away next year. I think short term traders will jack things up then cut bait quickly.
As for me, instead of playing the breakout pattern in GMO, I would rather play the pullback pattern in GDXJ. So I just placed a buy limit order for 2 contracts of January 2014 $15 calls on GDXJ at $6.60.
Not particularly helpful after the market has more than doubled, but I certainly don't see this as "the last bear" becoming bullish and no left to sell to, but more as part or the long term conversion after so many got crushed in 2009. I think we still have a long way to go. And after all, we still have Hussman!
MLNX has pullback to open move. Is trading 63.38 which is a lilltle below .50fib of 67.52 off Jul 10 lows. Thinking about it and re-reading Jesse alert, he's canny at finding lows, no?
My buy limit for January 2014 $15 calls on GDXJ was hit at $6.70 by the end of the day. I think that's a great purchase. If GDXJ drops below $20, I'll probably buy more such calls.
After purchasing some PNPFF at $0.85, I still have an open buy limit order for 5K shares at $0.80, and I hope this order gets hit during the current market pullback.
I thought I'd pop in because there's several "bugs" in here. GDX, GDXJ, HUI at a pretty big inflection point imo. JAG?
For the past 3 months or so, I've been watching a couple dozen future 300%-500% movers (very small caps) in the resource sector but a vast majority of them are not listed on U.S. markets. Hard/expensive to buy.
If one does a little research, there are dozens of market-neutral stocks that should outperform options.
-Small cap Graphite, iron-ore, molybdenom, rare earth, micro-crap gold....
One last thing- In this particular environment, its an infinite waste of one's time (one's life) to constantly speculate on the direction of the "market". The stocks that matter have been moving to the beat of their own drum.
"Speculating on", "Thinking about", "Preparing for" and "anticipating" "market direction" equates to anxiety, depression, lack of confidence, no conviction, confusion, and frankly- long-term failure.
If I learned ONE single thing during my zen-like market meditation over the past year, its this-
Spend literally 97% or 98% of your time looking for that ONE (or 2,3, or 4:)) single blockbuster stock. Spend 2% or 3% of your time focused on "market direction". Or dare I say "entertainment".
The Public/media/culture spends 99% of their time on "economic/market/political" direction. Ultimately, they pay a BIG BIG price for this.
I can't believe I'm going to finally say this, but after years of (I don't think there's a word in the dictionary for it), David's going to make a KILLING this year:)
T3D- All of the insider buys in the past 12 moths for NSPH were buy Slezak. 2M. All indirect. I always refer to NASDAQ for this stuff. Last direct buys were all last year, between 1 and 2.20.
Ha, just saw this on Twitter. Funny how these "experts" can say stuff like this one year, then change completely the next (like I posted above) and not mention anything about the wrong call.
Guess if you make enough calls, you eventually get some right and then keep just keep telling people about them:
Rosenberg Sees `99% Chance' of U.S. Recession by 2012: Video
Craig- You mentioned 31.50 as a line-in-the-sand for silver a few days ago. Spot is now 31. In addition, at least one Caraista doubled down on USLV this morning. Do you have a take on the next move in price?
If I were you (hardly realistic) I would use your inner sentiment gift. You have the feelings, just trust yourself. I'd blow off that QID thing if I were you, you were only slightly early. How many times do we buy or sell within 24 hours of the real move? I wish I had a dime for each time, I'd have awesome returns.
UGA - I'm not sure why this one's up 5 consecutive days while gas here at the pump is the lowest I recall in a couple years, must be a local phenomenon?
"I can't believe I'm going to finally say this, but after years of (I don't think there's a word in the dictionary for it), David's going to make a KILLING this year:)"
Jesse, should I interpret this as an endorsement of the chart pattern AUMN made so far?
It would have been that if I were assigning some importance to the short-term direction of AUMN. However, I kept my sight fixed on their expected share price at the point they complete Phase I and reach the annual production rate of 2M AgEqOz, currently slated for 3Q13. The repeated drops in its share price have simply allowed me to sharpen my skills of making lateral moves between my other positions and avoiding margin calls -- I was simply in the "survival mode", doing what needs to be done without allowing my emotions to come into play.
I agree and have been saying for a week or two now that AUMN looks very good technically. I just love (and so does the market) those W bottoms. I think the logical move up off this bottom over time is to $10, barring a silver calamity. Another one I really like is PAY. However, I know of it more in terms of fundamentals.
Eyeing miners and NGas for action.
ReplyDeleteScaling into UGAZ @ 22.07...
ReplyDeleteAdded UNG @ 18.79...
ReplyDeleteAdded UGAZ @ 21.89 and UNG @ 18.87...
ReplyDeleteREDF - Still rising......
ReplyDeleteMLNX - Interesting
Offed QID @ 28.67 for a minor loss. Just to get that albatross off my back.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Was $4.00 then next tick was $4.12......
ReplyDeleteNLY - Hmmmmm...... Dunno
UNG + UGAZ off the table @ 18.9x + 20.2x...
ReplyDeleteCashed in 1/3 of my SNE at $11.14 in hopes of buying back lower. I've decided to do this on positions I want to hold longer.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Just can't capture $5
ReplyDeleteObviously, I'm a contrary indicator for QID.
ReplyDeleteIn case anyone's wondering, my gains on UGAZ/UNG just covered my losses on QID with a few bucks left over to buy chips for the big guy at the arcade.
DeleteDay off?
DeleteTaking a lot of time off starting Friday for about two weeks (although working 4 days during that period).
DeleteThis bothers me:
ReplyDelete"the majority of traders fully expect the markets to go up and the bulls are all-in."
Of course it would if there was any real way to verify it.
DeleteMy feeling is we're experiencing profit taking ahead of capital gains tax increases, I know that sounds silly, as if I have a semblance of what's actually going on behind curtain #2.
DeleteThis article completely overlooked the AGCO insider buys: http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/11-stocks-with-significant-institutional-and-insider-buying/
MET - The volume on this one has really picked up the past several days, wonder if it's about to take flight?
ReplyDeleteUPS and FDX are looking strong, even though it seems like USPS is successfully taking some of their business.
MET stock will almost certainly do well if interest rates continue to rise - today we are seeing a pullback in rates, but we've been straight up the last couple weeks, so hopefully the pause that refreshes.
DeleteIn their last earnings presentation, they are forecasting mid-range earnings for 2013 of $5.15 per share on a $33 stock price, so p/e of 6.5 and 70% of book and growing well outside the US.
Problem is that every time rates go down, it get hit, even though the CEO said if rates stay down where they were, it would only hurt earnings by $0.05.
OK trying some XCO for the LT. But we know how that usually goes.
ReplyDeleteThe one concept I like the most of Jesse's book is buying stocks that have been in long bases and have broken out or look to have put in a double bottom. When you look at many of his picks they have been dogs since 08/09 and with the market elevated from that point makes sense.
I suppose the key is "Patience" with the right mix of risk management. Kinda of Templeton like.
By the way Jesse don not eat veggie and run. I hope you are recovering well, when I was a kid my best friend Cheryl got hit by a car at age 14, she was blackk and blue for months.
WFC - Closed that October gap down yesterday, didn't it? Still got that gap up from $32, 8% lower than today's price...
ReplyDeleteFiling4.com is the site Jesse referenced. Looking at NSPH last insider buying was OCT 2011.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.filing4.com/company/symbol/?sym=nsph
Any thoughts Mark?
NSC - Weekly looks like it's turning up, and pincher on daily worked just like it's supposed to (Daily RSI(7) is pretty high now though). Daily EMA's are turning up.
ReplyDeleteIsland reversal still in play?
Here is AUMN, buying by insiders stale and much higher prices.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.filing4.com/company/symbol/?sym=aumn
So one of these sources (Kapitall) is off. I guess I need to do more digging.
Maybe this is a sign that we are getting close.
ReplyDeleteCrucifiction by mining stock
Submitted by cheapy (517 comments) on Wed, 12/19/2012 - 09:24 #116193
I will never own another mining stock as long as I live!!!!
What totally worthless trash!
PCAR - BOAML moved this one from neutral to buy on 12/14
ReplyDeleteChina aspires growth exceeding 7% while Europe, their largest customer is in deep recession and Greece/Spain may be in depression?
Sounds good to me!
I like this and the basing chart: http://www.filing4.com/company/symbol/?sym=mcp
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteYeah that's interesting, have traded it earlier this year. They recently had a great offering but was for institutions only that paid 8% while you wait and it rallied off of that.
DeleteIn my mind that is still a short base, the ones I'm talking about are like X or IRE or at least 12 months.
Getting back to Hussman's record is great reason to be long, are there any specific stocks he's short?
ReplyDeletePretty sure he just buys market puts which are a good way to lose money in general.
DeleteInvestors Intelligence bulls up again to 46%. Remember, peaked at 54% in Feb. and Sept - so more room for optimism till start to worry.
ReplyDeleteRBY is quite oversold. I don't know anything about it fundamentally but based on the charts it is almost as oversold as it was in early 2007.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. RBY may be a ST buy based entirely on the fact that the morning drop consisted of multiple market orders to sell.
DeleteBought back my 1/3 shares of SNE at $11.05. Trying to get cute when I know this will be significantly higher 6 months from now is a stupid thing to do.
ReplyDeleteYou had me going there....so unlike you.
DeleteI think this is all pre-holiday doldrums. The MSM will blab about the budget and cliffs blah, blah, blah. It's all BS. If we go to sequestration who cares? I think ther market it taking 2nd's cue, it's time for the holiday and to relax. The market will still be here Jan 1st if the Mayan's are wrong.
ReplyDeleteGood to eyes open if there's some thin traders you want buy as you can still see some poor selling by people for year-end and get some good buys.
DeletePlease tell me the Mayans are wrong!
DeleteIf the Mayans had a clue they would still be here.
DeleteSID killing it. Was too busy with SNE / Z to take a position.
ReplyDeleteT3d, here is a much more recent snap shot of insider buying for AUMN:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aumn/insider-trades
Their CEO bought more than $1M worth of shares on 12/14...
What would you like to do about our AUMN bet? See my yesterday's post...
GMO is retesting its previous resistance at $3.90, which has now become the support. So any of you TA traders out there might want to take a position now and set a stop just below $3.90...
ReplyDeleteDavid thanks for the info.
ReplyDeleteThe bet, been thinking about that, I thought we called it a draw. However, if it makes you happy, if you guys get together over this years holiday season for a get to at a BYOB place you can bring a bottle of Nadurra to the party and drinks are on T3D.
If not, why not buy the bottle, and you can have it courtesy of T3D with the amount of conviction you have exibited you deserve it.
Thank you for the kind offer, T3D! If AUMN rises to $7 before April OpEx (and I am sure it will!), I'll call together all TT traders in California and treat everyone to Nadurra courtesy of T3D!
DeleteMake him drink it all in one night, as punishment!
DeleteI still think we're heading to the 1,500 area...any dips will be relatively shallow and should be bought. I do see a nice pullback early next year. I think part of this whole phenomena will be because we're getting a spike in income from higher dividends in December which will then go away next year. I think short term traders will jack things up then cut bait quickly.
ReplyDeleteI think we should be on alert for a reversal...just don't think it happens until after we get new highs.
DeleteAs for me, instead of playing the breakout pattern in GMO, I would rather play the pullback pattern in GDXJ. So I just placed a buy limit order for 2 contracts of January 2014 $15 calls on GDXJ at $6.60.
ReplyDeleteNobody wants to sell me these calls at $6.60, so I am raising my buy limit to $6.70.
DeleteThose of you betting the rally continues without a significant pullback> I'm not feelin' it, bros. But then, I've been a contrary indicator lately...
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteRosenberg sees 2013 as the year to put cash to work
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/market-outlook/rosenberg-sees-2013-as-the-year-to-put-cash-to-work/article6547075/
Not particularly helpful after the market has more than doubled, but I certainly don't see this as "the last bear" becoming bullish and no left to sell to, but more as part or the long term conversion after so many got crushed in 2009. I think we still have a long way to go. And after all, we still have Hussman!
Remind me again why tf I sold QID.
ReplyDeleteThe answer? There's a message for Jesse and Mark too....
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpG09PenZt8
TC- Now that's a powerful move of TOF's fav pattern.
ReplyDeleteA base, bowtie up and pullback? That's everyone's favorite pattern. Now we need to see a pullback again...
DeleteJust a sector heads up from Big Dave...selective metals and mining are trending.
DeleteLooks like they're coiling, to me.
DeleteMLNX has pullback to open move. Is trading 63.38 which is a lilltle below .50fib of 67.52 off Jul 10 lows. Thinking about it and re-reading Jesse alert, he's canny at finding lows, no?
ReplyDeleteSNE holding good.
MLNX 63.47ish starter. I like buying .50 retracements plus its at its May B/O point.
DeleteSeems reasonable.
My buy limit for January 2014 $15 calls on GDXJ was hit at $6.70 by the end of the day. I think that's a great purchase. If GDXJ drops below $20, I'll probably buy more such calls.
ReplyDeleteAfter purchasing some PNPFF at $0.85, I still have an open buy limit order for 5K shares at $0.80, and I hope this order gets hit during the current market pullback.
Defense sector was supposedly hit today early but didn't have much effect on HII...
ReplyDeletePAL - Still comin' to me....
ReplyDeleteI thought I'd pop in because there's several "bugs" in here. GDX, GDXJ, HUI at a pretty big inflection point imo. JAG?
ReplyDeleteFor the past 3 months or so, I've been watching a couple dozen future 300%-500% movers (very small caps) in the resource sector but a vast majority of them are not listed on U.S. markets. Hard/expensive to buy.
If one does a little research, there are dozens of market-neutral stocks that should outperform options.
-Small cap Graphite, iron-ore, molybdenom, rare earth, micro-crap gold....
Apologize for the crap picture. Have wrong account open...
DeleteOne last thing- In this particular environment, its an infinite waste of one's time (one's life) to constantly speculate on the direction of the "market". The stocks that matter have been moving to the beat of their own drum.
DeletePicking winning stocks = happiness, fulfillment, creative satisfaction.
"Speculating on", "Thinking about", "Preparing for" and "anticipating" "market direction" equates to anxiety, depression, lack of confidence, no conviction, confusion, and frankly- long-term failure.
If I learned ONE single thing during my zen-like market meditation over the past year, its this-
Spend literally 97% or 98% of your time looking for that ONE (or 2,3, or 4:)) single blockbuster stock. Spend 2% or 3% of your time focused on "market direction". Or dare I say "entertainment".
The Public/media/culture spends 99% of their time on "economic/market/political" direction. Ultimately, they pay a BIG BIG price for this.
I can't believe I'm going to finally say this, but after years of (I don't think there's a word in the dictionary for it), David's going to make a KILLING this year:)
"Spend 2% or 3% of your time focused on "market direction". Or dare I say "entertainment"."
DeleteWell said!
I don't know if there's a 'word' for what David's endured, but there is a movie and I think he's seen it.
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Way_Back
It's two words: Persistent torture.
DeleteSee my previous youtube post.
Livermore said it: Sitting is the hard part.
T3D- All of the insider buys in the past 12 moths for NSPH were buy Slezak. 2M. All indirect. I always refer to NASDAQ for this stuff. Last direct buys were all last year, between 1 and 2.20.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMark that 1 mil purchase by him was for a trust/fund he controls. If I can find it will post.
DeleteHere it is seems positive.
Deletehttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=1920591
but still not eactly what I was looking for.
Yes, all of Selazk's 2012 buy's were indirect. The fund now has about 5M shares. The last was the 2.40 in the offering.
DeleteSelazak personally owns 524K shares and Moffit owns 455K sahres.
MLNX- Was today's move somehow related to ORCL? Do love that chart.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Okay, I'll settle for a weekly close of $2.81 or better.
ReplyDeleteMe too Kemosabe.
DeleteHa, just saw this on Twitter. Funny how these "experts" can say stuff like this one year, then change completely the next (like I posted above) and not mention anything about the wrong call.
ReplyDeleteGuess if you make enough calls, you eventually get some right and then keep just keep telling people about them:
Rosenberg Sees `99% Chance' of U.S. Recession by 2012: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-13/rosenberg-sees-99-chance-of-u-s-recession-by-2012-video.html
T3D- This site is pretty good. http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1105184.htm
ReplyDeleteCraig- You mentioned 31.50 as a line-in-the-sand for silver a few days ago. Spot is now 31. In addition, at least one Caraista doubled down on USLV this morning. Do you have a take on the next move in price?
ReplyDelete4 year trend line is about 27.50.
DeleteBrandt said about a month ago that if $25 doesn't hold then it could result in an "historic" move.
DeleteI intend on being there if this does happen, not sure on what basis Jesse is so positive on AUMN but I certainly hope he's proven correct.
I believe that was from Deron on slv as I recall.
DeleteIf I were you (hardly realistic) I would use your inner sentiment gift. You have the feelings, just trust yourself. I'd blow off that QID thing if I were you, you were only slightly early. How many times do we buy or sell within 24 hours of the real move? I wish I had a dime for each time, I'd have awesome returns.
I added a little to AUMN today.
DeleteUGA - I'm not sure why this one's up 5 consecutive days while gas here at the pump is the lowest I recall in a couple years, must be a local phenomenon?
ReplyDeleteSGG - Looks like sugar might be ready for a leg up?
ReplyDeleteMUX - Is this a bear flag?
ReplyDelete"I can't believe I'm going to finally say this, but after years of (I don't think there's a word in the dictionary for it), David's going to make a KILLING this year:)"
ReplyDeleteJesse, should I interpret this as an endorsement of the chart pattern AUMN made so far?
"It's two words: Persistent torture."
ReplyDeleteIt would have been that if I were assigning some importance to the short-term direction of AUMN. However, I kept my sight fixed on their expected share price at the point they complete Phase I and reach the annual production rate of 2M AgEqOz, currently slated for 3Q13. The repeated drops in its share price have simply allowed me to sharpen my skills of making lateral moves between my other positions and avoiding margin calls -- I was simply in the "survival mode", doing what needs to be done without allowing my emotions to come into play.
Platinum is now $80 from gold, still catching up.
ReplyDeleteGRVY and REDF are showing up on stockchart's strong volume gainer scan.
ReplyDeleteThe gravy train is back! Wow.
DeleteI agree and have been saying for a week or two now that AUMN looks very good technically. I just love (and so does the market) those W bottoms. I think the logical move up off this bottom over time is to $10, barring a silver calamity. Another one I really like is PAY. However, I know of it more in terms of fundamentals.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-19/james-bond-can-t-fix-sony-as-japan-electronics-scrape-lows-tech.html
ReplyDeletenew post!
ReplyDelete