I can be as detached as the next guy trading almost anything, gold/silver being the lone exception. Why is that? I don't know and it doesn't matter- all that matters is my awareness of the emotional trap(s). So I knew what I was getting into.
(a) I took the plunge into a panic-driven wave of selling, and unfortunately I misread both (i) the intensity of the selling and (ii) my ability to withstand the emotional torrent that accompanied it.
(b) No worries. I stopped out around -0.4%, which is about the most I'm willing to risk right now.
(c) What would I do differently next time? Start (even) smaller, and play 1-2 trades at a time with shorter time frames.
(d) I made the right move walking away near the close. Prices had already recovered too much at that point. It's despair and desolation that interest me here, not the opportunity to build a long-term position in the sector.
(e) In reply to whether I should be aiming for the fences- that doesn't work for me at this stage in life. Sure, a +100% return would likely allow early retirement. However, if I swing and miss- the resulting damage could just as easily move retirement out a year or two. And striking out with multiple curve balls could turn my life upside down, bro.
----ing House Republicans, man. It would take them two weeks to figure their way out of a wet paper bag.
ReplyDeleteBoehner brandishing his big gun.
ReplyDeleteJust checking in this evening, shocked that gold and silver haven't already reached $35/$1800 and begun their monster run.
B/c that's how our market leaves everyone sitting wondering WTF, on the train platform, right?
Sorry, I meant his big orange sniper weapon.
DeleteHII - Thing'a had big volume lately wonder if this is a sign of topping action or continuation?
ReplyDeleteMy Mayan calendar says we have a market correction tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteHowever, we could have six more weeks of rally if Puxatawney Boehner sees his own tan when he emerges from the tanning booth.
I just hope he doesn't show us all his big orange pipe!
DeleteSo the dow futes are down 197. Why 197? If this really is a big deal why not down 2000? That would get noticed.
ReplyDeleteI gave up reading politics after the election but I actually don't think buddy Boehner is the problem. WHat we need is a reorganization, like what all the energy companies seem to be doing. Do away with Democratic and Republican names, and move everyone into the Lefty, Righty, or Moderate party. I wonder which party would be bigger?
I don't think changing labels is the answer.
DeleteWhat we need is the nascar model. Everyone wears coveralls with patches sized in proportion to who they are bought off by. Those that only represent the people have the most blank white space, those representing corporations and the wealthy have patches representing those interests in proportion to the funds they receive from those sources AND the actual influence they assert over said politicians. Then when they appear on CSPAN or in public and they spout their usual bullshit, we could see what interests were really being represented. The fact that the ----ing republicans can't seem to help pushing the agenda of millionaires (not to fault being a millionaire I hope to become one soon)over regular working people is pathetic. I'd make some taxation suggestions but we all know these ---ks will NEVER entertain fair taxation because they are all wealthy in comparison to the electorate they are supposed to represent.
We'll have to revisit this over the holidays. We could never change the labels like I'm suggesting but I guess what I really mean is that there seems to be 3 or 4 major parties and there are probably a lot more moderate Dems and Repub's that have more in common with each other than the party lines would suggest. As a Repub myself, mostly, I would be happy to see my party split into 2 separate groups. Yes, I do think we should raise taxes. I don't think Bush should have ever reduced the SS taxes.
DeleteIt sounds like both Shell and Conoco are reorganizing with some peeps having to repost for their jobs or simply having to post for A job because their job was eliminated.
ReplyDeleteDeutsche Bank is getting OUT of the physical gas business along with some other stuff, west coast power I think.
Let's see if I can stay employed long enough to learn how to SUCSESSFULLY trade SuperStocks.
I thought the energy sector was holding up the employment figures, they keep hammering on about how great numbers of jobs have been created in the oil patch?
DeleteI think most of these hits are in the marketing groups and of that, most of the hit is natural gas. I never look at power so I can't comment on that. Maybe DB's power group wasn't that good but I can't say.
DeleteI was listening in on one of our top guy's conversation today. He said he hopes the US doesn't export crude or natty, or at least not very much. In his opinion it would make energy so cheap that it would force manufacturing back to the US. I have no idea if that's reasonable or not but it makes sense.
ReplyDeleteI'm on board with a 1/4 position in AUMN at 4.52. I like the chart, been using the 10 WMA MAGIC LINE. By my calculation it also comes very very close to a Landry 102030 buy trigger which I set at $.10 above the previous day's high.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we may get another shot at SNE at lower prices.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-21/asian-stocks-advance-heading-for-weekly-increase-euro-weakens.html
"U.S. index futures slumped, Asian shares declined and the yen strengthened after House Republican leaders canceled a planned vote that would permit higher taxes amid stalled budget talks. Treasuries gained, while oil and precious metals led declines by commodities."
MLNX - Seems like we can conclude this one's below the magic line now.
ReplyDeleteSo considering how the market has climbed and climbed the fiscal cliff wall of worry, what will be the final end result, will it be an astounding sell the news event?
ReplyDeleteHere's my initial list of stocks to research. The link below is for ticker AH, I'm just curious to see if this works.
ReplyDeleteTickers AH, AIR, EDAP, EGOV, MOD, MXWL, SPMD, SPNS
MOD and MXWL both look like they have the W pattern TOF talks about.
http://scharts.co/V9QWql
I'm adding the following to the list from today's strong volume gainer scan.
DeleteSCS, WGO - Winnebago. WGO is reaching for the highs of 2010 and 2011, I suppose it would be best to see it decisively break those hi's first.
Just in case the world's ending I went and bought to big bags of chocolate, I want something sweet if I'm on the way out.
ReplyDeleteScrew Boner and the rest of those a-holes.
With nuts? God I love chocolate covered almonds. I guess the only play now is the go-to OGR. I wonder...maybe the market might like this just a little.
DeleteThis is interesting, I call it the Vig.
ReplyDelete"The perspective of Robert L. Bacon, author of the 1956 classic “Secrets of Professional Turf Betting:”
I don’t want to be like Pittsburgh Phil and win a million dollars at the races. I’d just like to grind out $25 a day for myself without any risk!
How many times have you heard something like that from turf fans who were trying to be “conservative” at racing? …Oh Brother! You can add this “grind” idea to the long list of other unsound notions held by the public play…. One sure thing that a smart player engraves deeply into his skull, is the fact that you MUST speculate at the races. You CAN’T grind!
The player at the races can’t grind or chisel because [that girl] is taken. The racetrack has all grind and chisel privileges! The mutuel take and the breakage add up to a percentage that continually grinds and chisels the betting money… The grind privileges are spoken for and taken, so the professional bettor must speculate. The mutuel grinding only goes one way – against the bettor. But any percentage can be overcome by enough winners at fat enough prices!
Fortune favors the speculator over the grinder because of the plain old arithmetical percentages. The speculator has a percentage chance to win. The grinder has no chance.
To beat the percentage of the mutuels, the player must ALWAYS have an overlay. He must always have an extra percentage in his favor, to counteract the “take” percentage. Forget about this idea of “grinding out a day’s pay.” If you want to make a day’s pay at the races, get a job watering horses, or pitching manure into trucks. But never try to grind it out of the mutuels.
You Must Speculate — You CAN’T GRIND!"
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ReplyDeleteTVIX - +1000%.......
ReplyDelete