Ever wonder why the best stories begin in pain, suffering, or grief? It's because there is no real transformation (no metamorphosis, if you will) without it.
I'm not saying we should embrace the pain, or any such crap. Real pain hurts, bro. But recognizing the 'event' as likely to be ultimately beneficial will help you get through it.
I went to a Mets-Giants game at Candlestick as a little dude in the 80's...must have been '85 or '86. I vividly remember Strawberry coming to the plate. Man, I miss those days when the Mets were good...and when people cheered for the home town team. Baseball in San Diego is as dead as Sunbathing in Seattle.
BACML report for Japanese LCD glass manufacturers:
Disparities among makers in Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments According to Nippon Electric Glass’ 27 December revision to its expected results, its Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments will apparently decline by the low-single-digit percentage compared to Jul-Sep. Meanwhile, Corning of the US already announced on 27 November that its Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments would increase by mid-single-digit percentage QoQ. Based on our most recent channel check, Asahi Glass’ Oct-Dec shipments were quite likely flat or saw a slight increase QoQ. This suggests that there were disparities among makers in Oct- Dec LCD glass shipment trends. Disparities in LCD glass profit margins may also be expanding among Japanese glass makers. Asahi Glass generated marked effects from cost reductions and streamlining throughout 2012, while Nippon Electric Glass has not enjoyed such conspicuous streamlining efficiencies. In addition, AvanStrate’s operating margin has been falling sharply, according to its latest half-year report.
Nippon Electric Glass lowers Oct-Dec profit forecast on 27 December OP was lowered by ¥2.5bn from the forecast average of ¥7.7bn announced in October to ¥5.2bn. Sales were left unchanged from the previous forecast, but there were apparently delays in productivity improvements and cost increases such as startup costs related to mass production of new materials. This leaves us with a negative impression. Oct-Dec LCD glass shipment volume seems to have declined by a low-single-digit percentage compared to Jul-Sep. While the speed of price declines accelerated somewhat from the previous quarter, prices apparently fell by mid-single-digit percentages QoQ. The ratio of thinner glass now appears to be close to 80%. We estimate Asahi Glass’s Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments to be flat to up slightly The company had said at the time of its 3Q results announcement in November that its Oct-Dec LCD glass shipment assumption was flat to slightly down, but based on our latest channel check, we estimate shipments to be flat to up slightly. We forecast that the speed of LCD glass price declines will be similar to Jul-Sep (decline of low-single-digit percentage). AvanStrate’s 1H FY3/13 report listed on EDINet on 25 Dec Sales totaled ¥22.3bn and OP ¥0.6bn in 1H FY3/13, shrinking 18% and 91%, respectively, from 2H FY3/12 (sales of ¥27.3bn and OP of ¥6.7bn in 2H FY3/12). According to this half-year report, the company’s operating rate was 79%
This little biotech stock I bought, ENZ, is one of the better looking charts I've seen. Holding a long bull flag. The fundamental case is pretty compelling as well. They recently won a $50 Million patent infringement case against LIFE and are expecting another $5 to $10 Million in interest on the settlement amount because the suit lasted so long. That would bring total case to around $70 Million (vs $105 Million market cap). They're operating near break-even and they are expecting to bring more suits against other companies infringing on their DNA sequencing patents. There was a time not all that long ago that this traded at around $15.
Sorry, they already have suits against other companies, including Amersham PLC, Amersham Biosciences, Roche Diagnostics, PerkinElmer, Inc., PerkinElmer Life Sciences, Inc, Molecular Probes, Inc.(now owned by Life Technologies), Orchid Cellmark, Inc. (now owned by Laboratory Corporation of America) and Affymetrix, Inc. If they win one against any of these big boys like Roche, PerkinElmer or AFFY I think this stock could skyrocket. I think there is also a chance that LIFE just buys them out since the additional patent suits stem from LIFE using their technology in stuff sold to these other companies...all of this stems from LIFE not obtaining a license from them.
Japanese stocks are all consolidating sideways after recent runs...that's very bullish. The Yen continues to surge and yet the investment community continues to ignore it for the most part. If this surge goes as high as I think it could, you will see the Nikkei at 14,000+ soon...and the Japanese ADRs at multi year highs.
The Yen remains weak, right? I think that's the cornerstone of Abe's plan, to flood the market with Yen? Sounds like he's gonna remodel Japan's infrastructure, should be good for construction contractors?
I'm telling you man...this upcoming run in Japanese stocks will turn some heads. People who play it will make a lot of money off of it. SNE PC TTM Honda etc will all rip higher. This fall in the Yen happened before Abe came to power. This was started by the normal cycle of things and will be exacerbated by Abe's monetary plans.
Yeah, not sure if it works or not but it certainly could if he's really serious and has the backing he needs. I was thinking Mitsubishi and Hitachi would be good for a nice long rally.
AGCO still looks good to me, especially on a pullback. Ditto for JOY
MLNX - I think this one looks like it sucks, it's already run like PM's did and now gets sold for the next eight quarters till it's back where it started or below. The tell is the obvious pump job that got it to $120
MLNX has one last rip higher coming...probably to $89. If $56.48 holds or if it dips slightly below it I would expect a 50% rip in a week or two. It's a dangerous trade IMO but it is setting up for that.
"Mr Shirakawa, the BoJ governor, has warned that “monetising” government debt could undermine confidence in Japan’s fiscal discipline, resulting in higher interest rates that would make it much harder to finance the deficit."
That's the catch-22, isn't it? This is possible because the government has chosen to carry a deficit, (and thus interventionist control over markets becomes a necessary evil) which otherwise wouldn't be a problem.
I can think of a number of approaches that could be implemented, the fairest of which would involve real change.
LOL, between SNE and TM, SNE probably has less to do with Japan as TM even still makes a few parts there, I think.
TM - Remember when I was interested in this one back with a $70 handle and nobody wanted to discuss it? TM quality has really gone down hill from where it was a decade ago though, from what I see.
PKX - Low $70's was a good entry, huh? This is the kind of trade I think can make money, one where the company is obviously oversold and a strategic supplier to heavy industry.
Similar to SCCO at $25, although mining can be a risky hit and miss prospect.
I think a different scenario is in play this year re 'selling for tax purposes.' They're not selling losers. They're selling winners to take advantage of the lower capital gains rate this year.
We can only hope the term 'Fiscal Cliff' fades quickly over the next few weeks. Rather than become an ominous chapter title in a future Poly Sci textbook.
Japan - Back to this subject, it's interesting to note the KOSPI was on an impressive tear ahead of the NIKKEI, as if in anticipation of improving economic activity in Asia. This holds considerably more meaning for me b/c we heard next to nothing about it as it happened where-as the Japanese intervention is being portrayed as all peaches and cream. Of course Japan is big positive news but I reserve doubts anyone can pick bottom on a three decades old trend.
It may not be a bottom, but we know coordinated easing and stimulus is more effective in ending deflation than what we have done. Anytime a government AND a central bank are talking about a 2-3% inflation target it is going to get interesting.
In order for this to occur James Bianco says the fed has to deliver at least $500 billion in purchases concentrating on mortgage backed securities. That is what the primary dealers are expecting. If that doesn't happen the markets will be disappointed. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/what-is-the-purpose-of-qe/
Someone agrees apparently, commercials have been buying YEN in a big way according to the COT report. What I don't know and have no idea about or willingness to speculate on, is if they're doing this as some kind of hedge in a straddle or something beyond my ability to deconstruct.
MLNX - Pull up a weekly chart on this one, here's how I see this playing out in the very best scenario... Share price falls from here to fill the $40 gap up sometime in Jan/Feb and then rises from there back to near current levels somewhere under $60 to complete the right shoulder of H&S formation that has a rough geometric target of ~$10
So buy this one around $40 if you wanna play the right shoulder formation but flip it fairly quickly b/c the ultimate target is ~$10
I guess by this time INTC or some competitor has developed and introduced a superior product.
Now isn't that a more complete and likely chart analysis for MLNX than you've seen elsewhere?
ENPH- I wonder what's up with this one today. I wish I had the guts to ask my buddy about it when it was $2.00. Just couldn't figure out a polite way to do it.
Sometimes these stocks seem to get pounded right before they take off for some reason(as if big money throws money at them to make 'em look bad, like they throw money at something to make it look good), your buddy might have some important and useful insight.
I'm not saying we should embrace the pain, or any such crap. Real pain hurts, bro. But recognizing the 'event' as likely to be ultimately beneficial will help you get through it.
ReplyDeleteHey, go easy there homelite!
ReplyDeleteMan, it's a quite here as a week night game at the stick between the Giants and Pirates in the 80's.
ReplyDeleteI went to a Mets-Giants game at Candlestick as a little dude in the 80's...must have been '85 or '86. I vividly remember Strawberry coming to the plate. Man, I miss those days when the Mets were good...and when people cheered for the home town team. Baseball in San Diego is as dead as Sunbathing in Seattle.
DeleteBACML report for Japanese LCD glass manufacturers:
ReplyDeleteDisparities among makers in Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments
According to Nippon Electric Glass’ 27 December revision to its expected results,
its Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments will apparently decline by the low-single-digit
percentage compared to Jul-Sep. Meanwhile, Corning of the US already
announced on 27 November that its Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments would
increase by mid-single-digit percentage QoQ. Based on our most recent channel
check, Asahi Glass’ Oct-Dec shipments were quite likely flat or saw a slight
increase QoQ. This suggests that there were disparities among makers in Oct-
Dec LCD glass shipment trends. Disparities in LCD glass profit margins may also
be expanding among Japanese glass makers. Asahi Glass generated marked
effects from cost reductions and streamlining throughout 2012, while Nippon
Electric Glass has not enjoyed such conspicuous streamlining efficiencies. In
addition, AvanStrate’s operating margin has been falling sharply, according to its
latest half-year report.
Nippon Electric Glass lowers Oct-Dec profit forecast on 27
December
OP was lowered by ¥2.5bn from the forecast average of ¥7.7bn announced in
October to ¥5.2bn. Sales were left unchanged from the previous forecast, but
there were apparently delays in productivity improvements and cost increases
such as startup costs related to mass production of new materials. This leaves us
with a negative impression. Oct-Dec LCD glass shipment volume seems to have
declined by a low-single-digit percentage compared to Jul-Sep. While the speed
of price declines accelerated somewhat from the previous quarter, prices
apparently fell by mid-single-digit percentages QoQ. The ratio of thinner glass
now appears to be close to 80%.
We estimate Asahi Glass’s Oct-Dec LCD glass shipments to
be flat to up slightly
The company had said at the time of its 3Q results announcement in November
that its Oct-Dec LCD glass shipment assumption was flat to slightly down, but
based on our latest channel check, we estimate shipments to be flat to up slightly.
We forecast that the speed of LCD glass price declines will be similar to Jul-Sep
(decline of low-single-digit percentage).
AvanStrate’s 1H FY3/13 report listed on EDINet on 25 Dec
Sales totaled ¥22.3bn and OP ¥0.6bn in 1H FY3/13, shrinking 18% and 91%,
respectively, from 2H FY3/12 (sales of ¥27.3bn and OP of ¥6.7bn in 2H FY3/12).
According to this half-year report, the company’s operating rate was 79%
This little biotech stock I bought, ENZ, is one of the better looking charts I've seen. Holding a long bull flag. The fundamental case is pretty compelling as well. They recently won a $50 Million patent infringement case against LIFE and are expecting another $5 to $10 Million in interest on the settlement amount because the suit lasted so long. That would bring total case to around $70 Million (vs $105 Million market cap). They're operating near break-even and they are expecting to bring more suits against other companies infringing on their DNA sequencing patents. There was a time not all that long ago that this traded at around $15.
ReplyDeleteSorry, they already have suits against other companies, including Amersham PLC, Amersham Biosciences, Roche Diagnostics, PerkinElmer, Inc., PerkinElmer Life Sciences, Inc, Molecular Probes, Inc.(now owned by Life Technologies), Orchid Cellmark, Inc. (now owned by Laboratory Corporation of America) and Affymetrix, Inc. If they win one against any of these big boys like Roche, PerkinElmer or AFFY I think this stock could skyrocket. I think there is also a chance that LIFE just buys them out since the additional patent suits stem from LIFE using their technology in stuff sold to these other companies...all of this stems from LIFE not obtaining a license from them.
DeleteI have to wonder if all that isn't already priced in and the big boys aren't just waiting to drop the hammer?
Delete$WTIC - Man, why has oil risen back to $91, I bet this is pushing Natty prices down.
ReplyDeleteJapanese stocks are all consolidating sideways after recent runs...that's very bullish. The Yen continues to surge and yet the investment community continues to ignore it for the most part. If this surge goes as high as I think it could, you will see the Nikkei at 14,000+ soon...and the Japanese ADRs at multi year highs.
ReplyDeleteThe Yen remains weak, right? I think that's the cornerstone of Abe's plan, to flood the market with Yen? Sounds like he's gonna remodel Japan's infrastructure, should be good for construction contractors?
DeleteI'm telling you man...this upcoming run in Japanese stocks will turn some heads. People who play it will make a lot of money off of it. SNE PC TTM Honda etc will all rip higher. This fall in the Yen happened before Abe came to power. This was started by the normal cycle of things and will be exacerbated by Abe's monetary plans.
DeleteYeah, not sure if it works or not but it certainly could if he's really serious and has the backing he needs. I was thinking Mitsubishi and Hitachi would be good for a nice long rally.
DeleteSumitomo and Iwatani as well.
DeleteMTU - Ha, check out this chart.
DeleteAGCO still looks good to me, especially on a pullback. Ditto for JOY
DeleteMLNX - I think this one looks like it sucks, it's already run like PM's did and now gets sold for the next eight quarters till it's back where it started or below. The tell is the obvious pump job that got it to $120
MLNX - LOL, say good by to an $60 handle....
ReplyDeleteMLNX has one last rip higher coming...probably to $89. If $56.48 holds or if it dips slightly below it I would expect a 50% rip in a week or two. It's a dangerous trade IMO but it is setting up for that.
DeleteDoesn't sound much like investment quality, sounds more like casino trash.
DeleteShort from 1435 - A good call.
ReplyDeleteA MUST READ.
ReplyDeletehttp://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2012/12/missing-the-big-japan-story.html
"Mr Shirakawa, the BoJ governor, has warned that “monetising” government debt could undermine confidence in Japan’s fiscal discipline, resulting in higher interest rates that would make it much harder to finance the deficit."
DeleteThat's the catch-22, isn't it? This is possible because the government has chosen to carry a deficit, (and thus interventionist control over markets becomes a necessary evil) which otherwise wouldn't be a problem.
I can think of a number of approaches that could be implemented, the fairest of which would involve real change.
It's none of my business how Japan deals with their fiscal mess. It's my job to profit from it.
DeleteGot SNE? EWJ? TM?
LOL, between SNE and TM, SNE probably has less to do with Japan as TM even still makes a few parts there, I think.
DeleteTM - Remember when I was interested in this one back with a $70 handle and nobody wanted to discuss it? TM quality has really gone down hill from where it was a decade ago though, from what I see.
PKX - Low $70's was a good entry, huh? This is the kind of trade I think can make money, one where the company is obviously oversold and a strategic supplier to heavy industry.
ReplyDeleteSimilar to SCCO at $25, although mining can be a risky hit and miss prospect.
Seems like tax selling is back in vogue today, same sensation as end of last year.
ReplyDeleteWhat I don't get though is why not just hang onto your losers into next year where the write-off should be better?
I think a different scenario is in play this year re 'selling for tax purposes.' They're not selling losers. They're selling winners to take advantage of the lower capital gains rate this year.
DeleteYes, that's exactly the scenario I'm attempting to focus on, should be more incentive for selling losers following year end.
DeleteEverything's OK now.
ReplyDelete12:56p Obama to offer new fiscal cliff proposal: report
Oh good, I was becoming concerned we'd finish the day absent enticing fiscal cliff sound bites! ;)
DeleteWe can only hope the term 'Fiscal Cliff' fades quickly over the next few weeks. Rather than become an ominous chapter title in a future Poly Sci textbook.
DeleteNow what fun would it be if there wasn't something controversial to hyperventilate over and make bad financial decisions around?
DeleteWhat bothers me most being on the long side is so many are anticipating a fantastic year next year.
Fuddy-duddies are excluded from the weighting, especially Sen-sei ones!
DeleteAt what price would any of you consider buying APPL?
ReplyDelete$440 was the geometric target, so having not looked the chart over recently I'd say off hand somewhere below this figure.
DeleteIn all honesty, I don't even know if it's red or green today as I'm typing this, or what price it's trading at.
Japan - Back to this subject, it's interesting to note the KOSPI was on an impressive tear ahead of the NIKKEI, as if in anticipation of improving economic activity in Asia. This holds considerably more meaning for me b/c we heard next to nothing about it as it happened where-as the Japanese intervention is being portrayed as all peaches and cream. Of course Japan is big positive news but I reserve doubts anyone can pick bottom on a three decades old trend.
ReplyDeleteIt may not be a bottom, but we know coordinated easing and stimulus is more effective in ending deflation than what we have done. Anytime a government AND a central bank are talking about a 2-3% inflation target it is going to get interesting.
Delete"coordinated easing and stimulus"
DeleteHmm, since every coin has two sides, I was thinking along the lines of "near capitulation and full of desperation".
Re Japan and the weak yen, here's a contrarian note from Nomura Securities:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/12/27/yens-slide-against-dollar-unlikely-to-last-long/
In order for this to occur James Bianco says the fed has to deliver at least $500 billion in purchases concentrating on mortgage backed securities. That is what the primary dealers are expecting. If that doesn't happen the markets will be disappointed.
Deletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/what-is-the-purpose-of-qe/
Someone agrees apparently, commercials have been buying YEN in a big way according to the COT report. What I don't know and have no idea about or willingness to speculate on, is if they're doing this as some kind of hedge in a straddle or something beyond my ability to deconstruct.
DeleteMLNX - Pull up a weekly chart on this one, here's how I see this playing out in the very best scenario... Share price falls from here to fill the $40 gap up sometime in Jan/Feb and then rises from there back to near current levels somewhere under $60 to complete the right shoulder of H&S formation that has a rough geometric target of ~$10
ReplyDeleteSo buy this one around $40 if you wanna play the right shoulder formation but flip it fairly quickly b/c the ultimate target is ~$10
I guess by this time INTC or some competitor has developed and introduced a superior product.
Now isn't that a more complete and likely chart analysis for MLNX than you've seen elsewhere?
Oops, just clicked another low of day.....
DeleteENPH- I wonder what's up with this one today. I wish I had the guts to ask my buddy about it when it was $2.00. Just couldn't figure out a polite way to do it.
ReplyDeleteSometimes these stocks seem to get pounded right before they take off for some reason(as if big money throws money at them to make 'em look bad, like they throw money at something to make it look good), your buddy might have some important and useful insight.
DeleteOpened INTC @ 20.45...
ReplyDeleteOpened SMH @ 31.8x...
What's the market saying here? It's saying there will be some kind of agreement on cuts in spending and taxes.
ReplyDeleteWill open RYSIX at the close.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeletePAL - Another day of decent volume, surely this thing's not preparing to begin an ascent?
ReplyDelete