Thursday, December 27, 2012

12/28/12 Scaling the fiscal cliff




139 comments:

  1. Grueling action, those who bought the dip flipped into close?

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  2. NLY - Doesn't look like I'll have an opportunity to lower my basis this quarter.

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  3. BALT - Looks like dividend is probably in jeopardy, doesn't it?

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  4. NSPH - They tried hard to work us over today, and failed.

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  5. GGB - Managed to close the open gap up from last week today, hoist anchor!

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  6. AGO - Tested the 50SMA and rose nicely, reaction looks really good here to me.

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    1. Volume was a little weak though, could it be they tried to run stops again today?

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  7. DD - Man, I can't understand why they're cutting back on the paint division, I thought paint was a real cash cow.....

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  8. MDW - Man, is there any chance this one can rise from the dead again?

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  9. PAL - Today's action wasn't convincing. On the bright side, there was volume.

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  10. OK, so now it's Friday.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-to-meet-congressional-leaders-friday-report-2012-12-27?link=MW_story_latest_news

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    1. That's more like it, dudes. Sunday just didn't seem like a great time for the next meeting.

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    2. In terms of the timing, try to keep a lid on it until 11 am pst. That would guarantee a 'feel good' rally heading into the weekend.

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  11. I'm not sure this is good.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-27/goldman-sachs-buying-japan-s-exporters-on-abe-policy-bets.html

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    1. In the short term probably bad...RSI on the Yen is quite overbought. However, this is the beginning of the multi year bull...

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    2. Usually I want to fade Goldman, that's all.

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  12. CP - I just got a chance to catch up on posts. Here's the thing about the Yen: everyone was calling a top for years. When the top finally hit no one was there to call it anymore. Too many people got burnt. So now that it topped (and I firmly believe it has) everyone is still expecting higher highs. The only issue is the chart is clear: There was a long basing period of about 6 months, followed by the initial rally and then a pullback with another 6 month basing period. We are now in the 2nd rally which is putting in a higher high. This is the start of a multi year run. There will obviously be pullbacks but just do a simple retracement on it to see where a 50% retracement would put it. Think about the massive implications of this on any company exporting. This isn't a day or weekly move. This is a multi year move coming up.

    The USD/JPY ratio was at 350 forty years ago. It was at 150 fourteen years ago. It bottomed at 75. A 50% retracement of 150 to 75 is a move of 50%. Think about selling goods that are 50% cheaper overseas than they were a year or two ago and the impact that would have on your business. SNE generates 70% of its revenues from overseas. 70% X $85 Billion = one gigantic hugemungo number. That's why I'm so bullish on SNE. A world class blue chip company selling for $10 Billion.

    While the US markets continue to bob and weave, the Nikkei will ramp to 14,000+ and people will completely miss the move, worrying about the latest bullshit media cover piece.

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    1. "The only issue is the chart is clear: There was a long basing period of about 6 months, followed by the initial rally and then a pullback with another 6 month basing period. We are now in the 2nd rally which is putting in a higher high. "

      I'm using the USD/JPY chart.

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    2. Yes, I understand the concept of your points concerning the Yen currency, I recall well when the Yen was 145 then moved to 128 and kept on going. And I agree Japan needs to get jiggy with it. And this stands a much better chance if China wakes up and begins to follow through. Was the KOSPI rise an early sign? Maybe so.

      It just seems like by the time we retail(dumb money) catch onto stuff like this the move is usually over and done.

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  13. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-returns-to-washington-as-cliff-nears-2012-12-27

    Obama, Boehner, McConnell, and Pelosi. Note that Reid, the guy who loves talking to the media, won't be in the room.

    Look, these politicians can't help but hear the groundswell of discontent. They're probably hearing it from their own families at the dinner table.

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  14. Cuba - How about the potential for lifting of the embargo, in full or part?

    I hear there's a decent chance legislation may pass to make this happen soon.

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  15. I could play that clip in the post faster on my cell.

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  16. Mark,

    If you want to calculate your annual return and do have money moving in and out of your account, Excel has a function called XIRR which does this for you. There is a good discussion of this at: http://www.financialwebring.org/gummy-stuff/misc-stuff.htm#XIRR

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  17. CP, re DD, they are selling the paint business as it is a cyclical commodity business and using the money to help pay for their increased investment in food/nutrition/agriculture which they see as more stable, better margins, better growth.

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  18. EWJ - NAV is currently over $10 according to Yahoo Finance, so at least there's still some wiggle room there for a long entry into the EWJ ETF.

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  19. I'm telling you, this market wants to move higher. If markets climb a wall of worry, what do you think they do with a fiscal cliff? I just don't think they fall off a fiscal cliff.

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    1. Take the Nikkei, for instance. It was given up for dead, then pundits declared that the index would sell off on the Abe news because the weak yen/strong exporters trade was 'too easy.' Instead, it's been climbing every freaking day. At some point (soon enough, IMO), it will sell off. But it's not returning to the lows.

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  20. Friday road map. At this point, I think the indexes 'simmer' 0.1% to 0.4% above today's closing prices. This will enable most shorts to maintain existing positions without undue pain. It may even attract new shorts to the table. 1-2 hours prior to the close, an agreement is reached. The indexes rocket higher, then to levels possible only in the presence of a short squeeze.

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    1. Could be Monday. The market seems to be holding, but it needs to digest and consolidate the retrace rally. The service has three shorts and a long.

      Gold is at some decent support. It needs top break the downtrend line. USD is near the 52 wk low. Interesting times.

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    2. What's truly incredible is that global markets with the exception of China and the US are all at or near 52-wk highs.

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    3. I'm actually pretty worried about the Nikkei.

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    4. No question investors are playing with fire if they're buying 52-wk highs. One of the advantages of buying negative sentiment is the backstop of strong hands + shorts.

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    5. Incredibly worrisome?

      I was thinking that shorts need to cover, which could propel us a tad higher and provide a new selling opportunity?

      Man, I hate this back and forth stuff!

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  21. ----. I made a mistake thinking Reid won't be in the room- he's invited. That's a negative, IMO.

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    1. LOL!

      They pretty much have to invite the Senate Majority pyro.

      For the record I think we deal with this happy horse shit like we did the Euro crap (and probably will again). I think these a-hole politicians have high frequency traders managing their money. It's solved, it's off, it's on, it's off again.

      So I think we are more or less flat until Wednesday when all the tax selling will be over and they will start running up the divy payers for yield again. Make sure you have your list.

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  22. RBY has a toe hold here back to 2009, but other than that...Crikes.

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  23. CP - A few things:

    (1) I always kid that we're the dumb money...I don't think we really are. Lots of us have ass kicking returns here.
    (2) I'd hardly call a move from $9.50 to $11.00 a move that is over, especially after it is down from over $100 over the past 10 years. The same can be said for the Nikkei / Yen over the past 25 years. This move is just getting started. The dumb money may have caught the move and then moved on. That's a dumb money move if I've ever seen one and we've all done that!
    (3) As far as just plain old valuations go, HPQ of all companies is trading at twice the price to sales of SNE and NOK is at 2.5 times the price to sales of SNE. DELL is trading at 3 times! RIMM? How about 4 times! And let's not even discuss Samsung which trades at 8 times and AAPL which trades at 20 times SNE's valuation.
    (4) We have seen several major media outlets discuss the death of Japanese manufacturing over the past couple of months, from Marketwatch.com to WSJ. That is the dumb money.

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    1. Okay, you got me TOF! Looking at the chart it seems $14.50 should come rather easily. I'm looking for an entry.

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  24. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-28/asian-stocks-rise-after-japan-cpi-as-yen-slide-boosts-exporters.html

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  25. CPHD - "Cepheid Inc: Receives FDA clearance for CT/NG test; ships January"

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  26. My guess and its worth less than nothing:
    We rally into the inauguration speech (1/21/13). We sell off hard on that day for the next month or so. I'm thinking 1,400 > 1,500 > 1,300. For certain stocks/sectors it won't matter.

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  27. Barry's take:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/rookies-manning-the-terminals-2/

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  28. UNG rallying into the numbers, I bet it's a short although I'm not touching it. Just for laughs.

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  29. I don't think longs are being convinced to sell, bears are gonna have to do a little better than this.

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    1. How's that for an impulse wave down?

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    2. If price movements in the market were wind gusts, that was one -'----ing rush.

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    3. I think we lost a few longs on that wave down, CP.

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    4. Ain't nobody home but us chickens! ;)

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    5. Traders are trying to grab Republicans by the balls.

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    6. "I think we lost a few longs on that wave down"

      Not sure how, I could barely get my order in time to buy AGO.

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    7. I sincerely hope Republicans find themselves castrated for the crap they've pulled on us all.

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  30. All right boyz..you be safe out there! At the close...

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  31. Where's the fly on the wall inside the White House?

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    1. 10:50a Obama to offer scaled-back budget package: report

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    2. Come on, guys. Pull it off, and you can spend all weekend on the talk shows to solid applause.

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    3. Your kids will start talking to you again.

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    4. But we will still want to cut your nuts off....

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    5. Shh! Oh ----. They heard you.

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    6. Finally, I've been yelling at my TV and monitors for quite a while now. I've suggested WAY worse than lopping their nuts off. F'ing ass hats....

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  32. By Robert Schroeder WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama on Friday will make a new, scaled-back offer in a bid to avoid the looming fiscal cliff, Bloomberg News reported. Details weren't immediately available, but the White House has been pressing for extending current tax rates for those making less than $250,000 a year, as well as for extending unemployment benefits. Obama and congressional leaders from both parties are due to meet at the White House at 3 p.m. Eastern.

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    1. I don't think the markets like the timing.

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    2. Bloomberg reporting has degenerated to watching what Boehner wears to the meetings as a means to determining the outcome.

      He better be wearing a protective stainless steel cup under those blue jeans...

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  33. Good read from Jim Paulson at Wells Fargo on market cycles and why 2013 will likely be a good market:

    http://a248.e.akamai.net/f/248/47562/14d/ig.rsys4.net/responsysimages/str2/__RS_CP__/20121227_EMP.pdf

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  34. AGO - I've got a feeling I shoulda just loaded the boat on this one and considered myself lucky if further opportunity presents itself.

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  35. NSPH - I forgot to mention that until further notice, anything less than $2.83 is a good place to consider adding.

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  36. Hmmm. 3 pm meeting, nothing will come out until after the close. Monday should be interesting unless nothing happens (my money is on nothing).

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    1. They're masters at setting low expectation and failure on behalf and to the advantage of their sponsors.

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    2. Maybe they'll cancel their 3pm meeting and give us even better prices?

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  37. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/americas-cars-and-appliances-are-getting-old/

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  38. For tax purposes, wasn't yesterday the last day for 1012?

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  39. http://www.benzinga.com/tech/12/12/3203934/zynga-just-lost-another-23-million-users

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  40. I'm officially an AAPL hater now! They are so yesterday it's pathetic...except for my laptop of course.

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  41. Nothing to report here...Getting bored. Been buying chunks of SNE every two hours to keep me from falling asleep.

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    1. One trader I follow on TWITZ brought up SNE today.

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  42. The fly on the wall says he's tired of watching the same ritual over and over. Some guy picks his nose, rolls it into a ball, and flicks it on the carpet.

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    1. Wow....like watching paint dry.

      Same s_ _ _ different day. This is so Euro crisis-like....

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  43. Replies
    1. If you don't want to wake up to Black Monday, stop the nose picking.

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    2. And stop flicking it on my carpet.

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    3. Some one just fired off a spit ball. Things are getting interesting...

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  44. What was I thinking when I didn't buy the VXX at 28?

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    1. You were thinking the same thing we were- someone at the White House meeting would have the balls to cut a deal.

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    2. That's a first....I wasn't cynical enough? F _ _ _.

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    3. Going long is the only trade to make here and I don't have the balls.

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    4. 2nd_ave -- looks like you had faith in the imaginary human nature. :) The real human nature for all politicians involved insists on keeping the Ego, together with all its beliefs, intact, and not succumbing to proposals that go against those beliefs...

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    5. It's not over 'til it's over, bro. And that's Monday.

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  45. 3:47p Obama not making new offer at cliff talks: report

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  46. By Robert Schroeder WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama won't make a new offer at the start of fiscal-cliff talks on Friday with congressional leaders, reports said. Obama is meeting leaders Friday afternoon in a last-ditch effort to avoid billions of dollars of spending cuts and the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts. A report earlier Friday said Obama would offer a scaled-down package at the White House meeting with the leaders.

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  47. My own positions aside, I have to admit traders made the only statement they could.

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    1. Well, the traders in MY positions made a different statement -- both AUMN and PNPFF are up today. :)

      If GDXJ goes down any further, then I want to have an even larger position in it. So I just placed a sell limit order for 2 contracts of May $23 puts at $5, so as to either pocket $1K by next May or buy GDXJ at $18.

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    2. That's good to hear, David. Hopefully it means a floor is in place for those two positions.

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  48. SPX futes down another -12 right now...

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  49. 5:17p Reid says working with McConnell on cliff deal

    They were spotted at a local pub getting ---t-faced while in heated discussions with Wall Street lobbyists.

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  50. 5:20p Next 24 hours to be 'instructive' on cliff: Reid

    Said lobbyists will be 'instructing' the Senators on proper protocol.

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  51. 5:25p Fiscal-cliff meeting ‘constructive’: Pelosi

    The 5 minutes of instruction were indeed constructive.

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  52. 5:27p Senate leaders working on fiscal-cliff deal

    Are you ----ting me? How many times have I read that headline...

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  53. Whats all this talk about a fiscal cliff?

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  54. 5:52p Obama: Time for action on fiscal cliff is now

    Oh ----.

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  55. 5:53p Obama: White House meeting was good, constructive

    They're getting cleaned up right now.

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  56. 5:55p Obama: Will push Democrat bill if talks fail

    But they still won't give up any names.

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  57. 5:56p Obama: Will force Senate vote on Democratic plan

    We know where they live, and we'll be sending lobbyists 'round for visits.

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  58. 5:58p Obama takes no questions after statement

    Don't ask me what I mean by that.

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  59. By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama said Friday he was still optimistic a bipartisan budget deal can be reached before the New Year. "I believe such a proposal could pass both houses with bipartisan majorities, as long as those leaders actually allow it to come to a vote," Obama said in a brief statement in the White House press room. Obama called his meeting with congressional leaders "good and constructive." Senate leaders said they were are going to work until mid-day Sunday seeking a compromise to avoid the fiscal cliff. Obama also set out a plan in case the Senate talks collapse. If no bipartisan deal can be reached, Obama said that Democrats would force a vote on the White House's own plan.

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  60. What I want to know is when does nancy pelosi take off the mask and show the people closest to her what's really under it?

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  61. http://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=A2KJkK4HKd5QewcAoFiJzbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTBlMTQ4cGxyBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDaW1n?back=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3Fp%3Dnancy%2Bpelosi%26fr%3Dyfp-t-701%26fr2%3Dpiv-web%26tab%3Dorganic%26ri%3D129&w=1200&h=1397&imgurl=www.freakingnews.com%2Fpictures%2F78500%2FNancy-Pelosi-Does-Wrong-Spell-78647.jpg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freakingnews.com%2FNancy-Pelosi-Pictures----3107.asp&size=312.8+KB&name=%3Cb%3ENancy+Pelosi+%3C%2Fb%3EPictures+-+High+Resolution+Gallery&p=nancy+pelosi&oid=49335d597812ba5aba0e12bb8801fa09&fr2=piv-web&fr=yfp-t-701&tt=%253Cb%253ENancy%2BPelosi%2B%253C%252Fb%253EPictures%2B-%2BHigh%2BResolution%2BGallery&b=121&ni=66&no=129&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=11t0ltusi&sigb=137nb3334&sigi=12bbm2q4f&.crumb=EtFX5DpXf9z

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  62. I see her as more attractive than the Boner.

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    1. ...and Illini finally chimes in!!

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    2. Pelosi is less of a cry baby then Boehner

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    3. No, she cries. It's just her tear ducts are now streched around behind her ears.

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    4. At least she doesn't have the fake sun-tan of Boner. Or does she? Hard to tell through the make-up.

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  63. PAL - Gained 6.5%, didn't skip a beat all day just kept on going.

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  64. SPY - Hey, maybe that gap up from June will finally close after all?

    I was beginning to believe we wouldn't be put through that ringer but now giving it second thoughts. Could be we won't until the next big fiasco whatever it is, the fiscal fiasco doesn't have the required girth?

    Maybe PM's hold the clue somehow, would a sudden drop there (recall silver geometric target is $25 and possibly lower) predicate improving economic conditions?

    QQQ - Technically the June gap up was closed but barely. The Nov. gap up from ~$62 remains though.

    Similar circumstances concerning QLD.

    Earliest chance fiscal sanity can be restored is New Year's eve?

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