what do you guys think about ZNGA? trades at the cash on hand and is still cash flow positive. The break up from FB could hurt and help. Help in that they don't pay a 30% cut to FB anymore for in game purchases. Hurt for obvious reasons. Anyone have any insight on the potential online gambling movement? Any traction there?
Another good anecdote from Santoli re 2013 - I could see a +30% year next year in the markets if things start getting better, unemployment comes down, business investment goes up, etc. and we then see some multiple expansion on stocks. But really, who knows? Just have to play things as they come:
When strategists have been cautiously counseling a below-average equity stake, the market in contrary fashion has risen the subsequent year at a better-than-average frequency. And, as now, when the equity allocation has been below 50%, stocks have been higher a year later 100% of the time, with a median gain of 30%.
back whtn the S&P was around 1,360 I was thinking it would hit the 50 DMA on a rally at which point I would sell most of what I have. So far so good. I sold a big position in Z yesterday and am mostly in cash right now.
Having said this I still think we get new highs before the top is in on this bull market. I'm thinking 1,520 to 1,570. So possibly marginally new all time highs before we hit a rough patch. Who knows though, play it day by day. I don't think we get a good buy and hold period for another few years so until then I think we have big ole swings that we should continue to trade.
One of these times AGO will go for real. I'm not very good at figuring out exactly when, but I fell really good that it will be much higher in a year or 3.
Was at a party on the weekend and one of the guys was trying to explain to me how to better time things like this using RSI's and MACD's and all those things - I just had another beer instead.
Bulls seem to have caught wind in their sails, why they don't allow the bears to take us down so they can buy lower I don't know.
All it'll take are a few more negative comments from the hired hands in DC, no way of knowing the game plan but they seem to be digging in their heels on making the taxpayer shoulder their burdens.
This ain't over by a long shot, day trading whipsaw is the game while gridlock reins and angst grows as the deadline rapidly approaches.
On Going Long: "The whole thing about 'longs' is, if you know you're right, you can just keep buying, and the lower it goes, the better you like it, and you can't do that with shorts."
I've owned DD since 2007 and am down on the purchase price, but up overall because of the dividends. I think they are doing a good job of getting rid of the commodity type businesses like paint and moving up the value chain with a major focus on food/agriculture. It's once of about 5 stocks I think I just hold and don't worry about it (like WMT, CNI, UL). At the current price, I don't think there's much downside, especially due to the strong dividend support as they work through this.
ACI and MSFT are acting DULL. I've been rereading "How To Trade In Stocks" and one of Jesse Livermore's comments is about staying away from "dull" stocks. I can't find the exact comment at the moment but he didn't like stocks that just drift around. If they didn't move the way he expected them to then he would sell them within a few days. I assume by a few he means less than 10 but the book doesn't say exactly.
FSLR, bot 5 jan 27 strike calls at 2.55 last week. The plan on these is to just let them expire worthless if the trade goes against me. I have an order out to sell 2 at $5.10 and I'll hang on to the rest. I still have my 200 FSLR shares from my original trading plan. I like the action today but it also looks like it usually trades back down after a large positive candle. I'll also be watching for another entry on a pullback if FSLR keeps moving up.
tof - I was going through Stewart's charts this weekend and I'm wondering what his "rules of engagement" are. I can't find them on the net. I'm curious to see how they might differ from Landry's since Stewart uses weekly charts. I wonder if Stewart uses daily chart to trigger his entries?
Landry uses weekly charts for longer term trends, dailies to get a faster signal and down to 5-10 mins for entries and to see/catch ogres and daily action. There's a tool for every time frame.
The boss is on finance committee for one of the local arts here in Houston. She joined it because she wanted to learn more about it. She said she's one of the "poorer" ones on the board. They have their money split up amongst a few money managers plus they invite other managers over to present their ideas. They had this one lady come over last month who manages a $4 bill endowment and she said that they only have 30% of their money in equities and this is the highest it's ever been. They actually invest most of their money directly, things like building and leasing projects, oil and gas wells, ..... She also said they have a minimum 3 year timeline on investments. I'll ask the boss to go over this again to make sure I have all the facts down accurately.
It sounds like venture capital to me. It made me wonder if maybe some of the money that we are told is on the sidelines may actually not be on the sidelines. Maybe there is a lot more money that is being directly invested in projects. I wonder if there is a way to measure this or find out?
I'm sure you guys were aware of this. I just found out at lunch today. The article was posted on 9/18/2012. I may post this on CC since the gold bugs are over there. How many peeps drill into their gold to see if it's real?
LOL! How many people buy 10 oz gold bars? Besides, there's a premium for Eagles and in some cases maples over bars/bullion. Better to stick with the coinage for this and other reasons.
port - not sure what his rules of engagement are. i only follow him to see what picks he has and then research them. i don't really like his methodology because there is way too much risk to it. he generally picks something after it makes a huge one day move. some of them work out really well but a lot go down hard. i do like the ones he takes that are coming out of big bottoming bases.
solars are on fire. WFR looks very good with insider buying to boot.
i turned on CNBC this morning for the first time in a while and jeez what a bunch of pompous windbags.
Jeff Miller slams Hussman's approach - correctly I think:
The fiction. The latest new and greatest recession indicator. This is from Lance Roberts (who without apology highlighted the bogus 100% recession indicator). He is now back with a new entry, endorsed by John Hussman. Roberts takes some existing economic forecasting indicators that do not initially give the result he hopes for. He then does some arithmetic and creates something that has a lame correlation to past recessions. Hussman (who does similar things) embraces this approach.
The Reality. The St. Louis Fed creates about 60,000 data series. If you do some math transformations as Roberts did, you can turn this into a million or so possibilities. If you then set a "trigger" at an arbitrary level based upon a handful of past cases (the way Hussman does) you can multiply this into the hundreds of millions range.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-contrarian-take-on-golds-prospects-2012-11-28?mod=hulbertonmarkets&link=djmc_freearticle_HOMbottom
ReplyDeleteFwiw. Of course, the above was posted November 28. Then again, it's only December 3.
All I know for sure is, down isn't up.
DeleteVELT- MF (money flow) is pinned to the floor, but RSI still has a little room. Watch.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2012/12/03/falling-momentum-on-us-indices/
ReplyDeleteNow I am starting to worry about the lack of comments. Yikes!
ReplyDeleteNot much to say until congress makes some decisions, they've been holding markets hostage far too long.
DeleteGLD down 1% and NUGT up 2%..now THAT'S a really neat 3X!
ReplyDeletewhat do you guys think about ZNGA? trades at the cash on hand and is still cash flow positive. The break up from FB could hurt and help. Help in that they don't pay a 30% cut to FB anymore for in game purchases. Hurt for obvious reasons. Anyone have any insight on the potential online gambling movement? Any traction there?
ReplyDeleteWell they shut down in-trade in the US a couple of weeks ago, so doesn't appear to be coming soon.
Deletegotcha thanks.
DeleteAnother good anecdote from Santoli re 2013 - I could see a +30% year next year in the markets if things start getting better, unemployment comes down, business investment goes up, etc. and we then see some multiple expansion on stocks. But really, who knows? Just have to play things as they come:
ReplyDeleteWhen strategists have been cautiously counseling a below-average equity stake, the market in contrary fashion has risen the subsequent year at a better-than-average frequency. And, as now, when the equity allocation has been below 50%, stocks have been higher a year later 100% of the time, with a median gain of 30%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/wall-st-strategists-quietly-summon-bull-13-150936741.html#more-id
Seeing some dumping in small cap stocks this week, likely for tax-loss selling. Grabbed one this morning and have a couple of bids in.
ReplyDeleteSomeone dumped one of the energy services companies I own at $0.45. Bid is now $0.63 - whoops.
Has the US consumer left for vacation again or what?
ReplyDeleteROST - Testing the 20SMA, could be a good entry here?
DG - This looks like a good entry as well.
ROST is a short.
Deleteback whtn the S&P was around 1,360 I was thinking it would hit the 50 DMA on a rally at which point I would sell most of what I have. So far so good. I sold a big position in Z yesterday and am mostly in cash right now.
ReplyDeleteHaving said this I still think we get new highs before the top is in on this bull market. I'm thinking 1,520 to 1,570. So possibly marginally new all time highs before we hit a rough patch. Who knows though, play it day by day. I don't think we get a good buy and hold period for another few years so until then I think we have big ole swings that we should continue to trade.
SHW still looks like a juicy short.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Out @ $13.75 for a penny gain, not willing to ride this one down again I'll be buying instead.
ReplyDeleteMake that a two penny gain.
DeleteAUMN - Sure has got some boogie in it's butt today.
See it jump right after they stole my shares? LOL!
DeleteSold that aumn trade after looking at SLV. Bought more at $4 and got off at 4.27.
DeleteOne of these times AGO will go for real. I'm not very good at figuring out exactly when, but I fell really good that it will be much higher in a year or 3.
DeleteWas at a party on the weekend and one of the guys was trying to explain to me how to better time things like this using RSI's and MACD's and all those things - I just had another beer instead.
Bulls seem to have caught wind in their sails, why they don't allow the bears to take us down so they can buy lower I don't know.
DeleteAll it'll take are a few more negative comments from the hired hands in DC, no way of knowing the game plan but they seem to be digging in their heels on making the taxpayer shoulder their burdens.
This ain't over by a long shot, day trading whipsaw is the game while gridlock reins and angst grows as the deadline rapidly approaches.
UNG looks good.
"one of the guys was trying to explain to me how to better time things like this using RSI's and MACD's and all those things"
DeleteTell him to cc you when the next bottom is in so you can add?
Starter position back in Z at $26.88
ReplyDeletefull position back on at $26.9 over past half hour.
DeleteDD - You guys got any of this one?
ReplyDeleteMEOH - This chemical company did actually break out, shock of the weak over here!
Weak -> week? Freudian slip or something?
DeleteRIMM - Was this one another GS upgrade? I'm rapidly losing track of GS's shennigans....
ReplyDeleteXLF - $15.65 would help keep breeze in the market sails.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1407 is bear fodder.
XLF - The recent gap up is probably the anchor holding this ship in the harbor. Sept gap up was filled however the June gap still remains as well.
DeleteIt's only Tuesday and already I need a refreshment holiday.
Merkel says "Nobody knows when the debt crisis will end".
ReplyDeleteSure wish Nobody would cc me when it does end.
David here is one for you per Buffet:
ReplyDeleteOn Going Long: "The whole thing about 'longs' is, if you know you're right, you can just keep buying, and the lower it goes, the better you like it, and you can't do that with shorts."
I'll take a shot at YUM if it can get to 63.
ReplyDeletehow about a bite of yum?
Deletea taste of it?
Delete...all week long...
DeleteINTC looking tasty have a bid at 19.90.
ReplyDeletewent to them at 19.97 just in case this thing takes off.
DeleteOne of Mike Price's largest positions and has been adding. 4.6 div not bad either as a poxy for cash
P- Never did get that one.
ReplyDeleteP took a bit of a dive in AH
DeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteI've owned DD since 2007 and am down on the purchase price, but up overall because of the dividends. I think they are doing a good job of getting rid of the commodity type businesses like paint and moving up the value chain with a major focus on food/agriculture. It's once of about 5 stocks I think I just hold and don't worry about it (like WMT, CNI, UL). At the current price, I don't think there's much downside, especially due to the strong dividend support as they work through this.
XCO looks awesome for a longer term trade.
ReplyDeleteTOF- What was that penny stock your playing?
ReplyDeleteAMBS, up a penny today to close at .0288, +52%
DeleteI bot 20,000 at $.018 the other day, I almost forgot about it. Sold half today at $.0272. Wouldn't it be great for a pop up to $.25 or so?
DeleteWHR - How much higher is this thing going?
ReplyDeleteSZK - Pffffff, is this thing on?
Hardly any comments on CC today.
ReplyDeleteStill have ACI and MSFT.
ACI and MSFT are acting DULL. I've been rereading "How To Trade In Stocks" and one of Jesse Livermore's comments is about staying away from "dull" stocks. I can't find the exact comment at the moment but he didn't like stocks that just drift around. If they didn't move the way he expected them to then he would sell them within a few days. I assume by a few he means less than 10 but the book doesn't say exactly.
FSLR, bot 5 jan 27 strike calls at 2.55 last week. The plan on these is to just let them expire worthless if the trade goes against me. I have an order out to sell 2 at $5.10 and I'll hang on to the rest. I still have my 200 FSLR shares from my original trading plan. I like the action today but it also looks like it usually trades back down after a large positive candle. I'll also be watching for another entry on a pullback if FSLR keeps moving up.
tof - I was going through Stewart's charts this weekend and I'm wondering what his "rules of engagement" are. I can't find them on the net. I'm curious to see how they might differ from Landry's since Stewart uses weekly charts. I wonder if Stewart uses daily chart to trigger his entries?
ReplyDeleteLandry uses weekly charts for longer term trends, dailies to get a faster signal and down to 5-10 mins for entries and to see/catch ogres and daily action. There's a tool for every time frame.
DeleteThe boss is on finance committee for one of the local arts here in Houston. She joined it because she wanted to learn more about it. She said she's one of the "poorer" ones on the board. They have their money split up amongst a few money managers plus they invite other managers over to present their ideas. They had this one lady come over last month who manages a $4 bill endowment and she said that they only have 30% of their money in equities and this is the highest it's ever been. They actually invest most of their money directly, things like building and leasing projects, oil and gas wells, ..... She also said they have a minimum 3 year timeline on investments. I'll ask the boss to go over this again to make sure I have all the facts down accurately.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like venture capital to me. It made me wonder if maybe some of the money that we are told is on the sidelines may actually not be on the sidelines. Maybe there is a lot more money that is being directly invested in projects. I wonder if there is a way to measure this or find out?
Hmm, they're at highest equities position ever?
DeleteI was looking at GS and BAC, these look like H&S patterns. GS target seems to be $100 but I think the gap up might close if $100 was reached.
I'm sure you guys were aware of this. I just found out at lunch today. The article was posted on 9/18/2012. I may post this on CC since the gold bugs are over there. How many peeps drill into their gold to see if it's real?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district
LOL! How many people buy 10 oz gold bars?
DeleteBesides, there's a premium for Eagles and in some cases maples over bars/bullion. Better to stick with the coinage for this and other reasons.
AAPL - Looks like 50SMA will cross down through 200SMA, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteyeah mark it's AMBS...
ReplyDeleteport - not sure what his rules of engagement are. i only follow him to see what picks he has and then research them. i don't really like his methodology because there is way too much risk to it. he generally picks something after it makes a huge one day move. some of them work out really well but a lot go down hard. i do like the ones he takes that are coming out of big bottoming bases.
solars are on fire. WFR looks very good with insider buying to boot.
i turned on CNBC this morning for the first time in a while and jeez what a bunch of pompous windbags.
Jeff Miller slams Hussman's approach - correctly I think:
ReplyDeleteThe fiction. The latest new and greatest recession indicator. This is from Lance Roberts (who without apology highlighted the bogus 100% recession indicator). He is now back with a new entry, endorsed by John Hussman. Roberts takes some existing economic forecasting indicators that do not initially give the result he hopes for. He then does some arithmetic and creates something that has a lame correlation to past recessions. Hussman (who does similar things) embraces this approach.
The Reality. The St. Louis Fed creates about 60,000 data series. If you do some math transformations as Roberts did, you can turn this into a million or so possibilities. If you then set a "trigger" at an arbitrary level based upon a handful of past cases (the way Hussman does) you can multiply this into the hundreds of millions range.
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/
Mongolia looks for energy alternatives:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/business/energy-environment/severely-polluted-mongolia-tries-a-cleaner-power-source.html?partner=yahoofinance
Don't even look at MMR.....geez...I should have held my little position...
ReplyDeleteWow - unbelievable story! So I guess Freeport is happy with the drilling problems - let them get MMR cheaper than they otherwise would have....
DeleteOkay, let's get the show on the road here!
ReplyDeleteMITK and USB are the Bill pay partners.
ReplyDelete