WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. added 146,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, the Labor Department said Friday. Hurricane Sandy appeared to have little effect on hiring and employment last month, the government said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an increase of just 80,000 jobs because of the disruption caused by the storm. The unemployment rate was projected to hold steady at 7.9%. It fell mainly because 350,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Employment gains for October and September, meanwhile, were revised somewhat lower. The number of new jobs created in October was revised down to 138,000 from 171,000, while September's figure was revised down to 132,000 from 148,000. The biggest increase in hiring in November occurred in retail, professional services and leisure and hospitality. The construction and manufacturing sectors reduced employment. Average hourly wages rose 4 cents to $23.63 in November while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
(a) So the unemployment rate fell to 7.7% 'mainly b/c 350,000 people dropped out of the labor force.' (b) September + October numbers revised down by a total of 49,000.
How about this. The market starts by stomping on the bears. Then it stomps on the bulls. The side that then attempts to rise in a daze and put on a fight near the close will determine red or green, as the market stomps on it to end the day.
Decent employment, sell the news into a declining chart. The rally happens after Jan 1 on tax buying. Nobody trusts Washington, what do they have to lose by selling?
I think that there is more risk being out of the market than in it here.
Good seasonals, potential of good news out of Washington, economy and jobs slowly improving, interest rates very low, valuations good, investors seemingly underinvested - all point to a slow, but steady upside.
Risks I think are muted as no fiscal cliff deal will only have a short term impact and the odds of the economy tanking in the US are getting lower all the time.
I'm about 50% in, but I'm watching the charts. This AM the russell and Q's are iffy. aapl is not strong. Long term do we get better? Sure, but early is the same as wrong.
Aapl may be a misleading stock now. Its done so well for so long and is easy to see as overvalued if you believe they can't maintain their margins. Plus, being such a large part of the NASDAQ, could pull this down and make that chart look bad, even if the rest of the stocks are doing OK.
VELT looks like yesterday was a good entry, might not be too late. Tight pincher on the daily but I've seen these give up considerably more on occasion but the ST pincher play is interesting.
If we could just get a bit of a rise in rates due to an improving economy, I think you'd see all the insurance companies really jump. They pretty much all have value and are underappreciated.
2nd, I would say that 2012 was a good year for generally sitting in cash in buying strongly oversold markets. I don't know that you can extraplate this to be an every year approach or if it needs to be adjusted for different types of markets. I wonder if it works as well in more trending markets?
It's not unusual for gold to get beaten down prior to fed meetings.
The ECB racheted down Europe's growth by 1% for 2013 and most likely will begin buying Spanish debt its form of QE.
People think that gold is in a bubble, well Faber asked a group of investors in Dubai how many own a 5% allocation in their accounts of gold, very few raised their hands. If he would ask this same question in 2000 of the QQQ's the room would have raised its hands.
" The Board of Trustees of the GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust by GABELLI (NYSE MKT:GGN) (the “Fund”) approved the continuation of its policy of paying monthly cash distributions. The Board of Trustees declared cash distributions of $0.12 per common share for each of January, February, and March 2013.
The distribution for January 2013 will be payable on January 24, 2013 to common shareholders of record on January 16, 2013."
91.90% of Z's float was short as of November 15, and the stock price has only moved up since then? Seriously? That has to put a solid floor under the stock
YHOO Finance also shows 7.45m shares short as of 11/15, but they calculate that as 91.90% of the float. Either way, there are a ton of shorts underwater right now.
2nd said "YHOO Finance also shows 7.45m shares short as of 11/15, but they calculate that as 91.90% of the float. Either way, there are a ton of shorts underwater right now."
2nd, so how do we know those shorts are underwater? How do we know those shares were not shorted during OCT sideways movememnt?
You're right, I have no idea whether they're underwater. What I should say is they're probably all looking back at 11/15 and wondering why they didn't cover then. The point is, the stock price has been trending up since the date we last have accurate information for, and shorts have had no opportunities to unload at better prices.
All I can say is, we've all seen this movie, no? Shake out the weak hands + allow market makers to move prices down to allow attractive entry points. Didn't we just watch the IMAX version of this with MMR?
2nd - This is my thinking on what now is an excellent time to load up on Z. Nothing fundamentally has changed for the company. The "soft" revenue guidance was due entirely to their decision to build their own pre foreclosure platform in house instead of directing people to Foreclosure.com, who naturally pulled all of their ads from Zillow. The growth and huge market potential are still there and you get the stock at a 45% discount. But now the risk of a larger player scooping them up would have to be higher if they liked them before in the $40's.
"I'm guessing institutional buyers put in orders around 26.8x, and it was up to brokerages to hit that price." that's an interesting take. normally the price isn't as volatile as it was during that little hour period. volume was through the roof so it very well could have been something like that.
I kinda thought it might follow today, but nope. I think it would be doing better if there wasn't any news related to gambling. Make people like me go..no way.
I really like the setups in SID and XCO. I think SID runs hard for the next couple of years as Brazil builds out for the olympics. Best part is it offers a nice yield. Objectivetrader had it on his list of rebounders, which is where I came across it. Easy to see it double from here and offer a 10% annual dividend. Maybe Zillow will get bought out on Monday and I'll have some free money to play with...ok I'll go back to reality.
I feel like XCO is going to do that as well. Man i gotta start playing more stocks at one time. I've missed moves in IRE, ANR, NOK lately because I was so stuck on Z and DECK (which I also missed the majority of that move). argh!
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. added 146,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, the Labor Department said Friday. Hurricane Sandy appeared to have little effect on hiring and employment last month, the government said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an increase of just 80,000 jobs because of the disruption caused by the storm. The unemployment rate was projected to hold steady at 7.9%. It fell mainly because 350,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Employment gains for October and September, meanwhile, were revised somewhat lower. The number of new jobs created in October was revised down to 138,000 from 171,000, while September's figure was revised down to 132,000 from 148,000. The biggest increase in hiring in November occurred in retail, professional services and leisure and hospitality. The construction and manufacturing sectors reduced employment. Average hourly wages rose 4 cents to $23.63 in November while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
ReplyDelete(a) So the unemployment rate fell to 7.7% 'mainly b/c 350,000 people dropped out of the labor force.'
ReplyDelete(b) September + October numbers revised down by a total of 49,000.
What's it all mean? I'll be the first to admit I don't know.
ReplyDeleteIt seems quite a few shorts were caught off guard.
ReplyDeleteSpot gold/silver continue to dive. Why? I don't know, but it certainly fits the sadistic profile of the market.
ReplyDeleteGun to head> we close red.
ReplyDeleteNow I think we close green.
DeleteToo much time on my hands today.
Deletewhat happened in those 5 minutes to go from red to green?
DeleteI was trying to come up with the most sadistic outcome I could think of.
DeleteMGM covered @ 9.75 for 200 smackers. Drinks on me this weekend!!
ReplyDeleteLet's start with the $7 Costa Rican Geisha SBUX rolled out this week.
Delete2! I buy you fly...
DeleteTo be the guy whose highest-income years were 1981-1999, and then to have retired in '99 and moved it all into 30-year bonds...
ReplyDeleteDay off 2nd?
ReplyDeleteA weekday off is never a day off when you're chained to the PC for 7 hours.
DeleteMy biggest regret this week? Not buying BAC when it broke out >10.
DeleteYep, BAC sure did take off. I recall the monster resistance at $12 a couple years ago.
DeleteAlright, so the joke's on me as GDX/GDXJ spike +1% at the open.
ReplyDeleteNow here's a chart de Sade would be proud of. It even looks like the chart's flipping you the bird.
DeleteHow about this. The market starts by stomping on the bears. Then it stomps on the bulls. The side that then attempts to rise in a daze and put on a fight near the close will determine red or green, as the market stomps on it to end the day.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Hmm, volume yesterday was 2x
ReplyDeleteDecent employment, sell the news into a declining chart. The rally happens after Jan 1 on tax buying. Nobody trusts Washington, what do they have to lose by selling?
ReplyDeleteI think that there is more risk being out of the market than in it here.
DeleteGood seasonals, potential of good news out of Washington, economy and jobs slowly improving, interest rates very low, valuations good, investors seemingly underinvested - all point to a slow, but steady upside.
Risks I think are muted as no fiscal cliff deal will only have a short term impact and the odds of the economy tanking in the US are getting lower all the time.
I'm about 50% in, but I'm watching the charts. This AM the russell and Q's are iffy. aapl is not strong. Long term do we get better? Sure, but early is the same as wrong.
DeleteMy honest belief is we should be getting long as well, the global economy appears to be picking up steam, not slowing.
DeleteAapl may be a misleading stock now. Its done so well for so long and is easy to see as overvalued if you believe they can't maintain their margins. Plus, being such a large part of the NASDAQ, could pull this down and make that chart look bad, even if the rest of the stocks are doing OK.
DeleteThere are so many gaps up in the charts though, leading me to believe this all needs to be cleaned up.
DeleteI am agree (ugry) concerning AAPL, can't keep going up like a rocket forever and there are arguably much better risk/reward opportunities elsewhere.
DeleteNSPH - And of course we now have a gap up to keep us moored.
ReplyDeleteCheck out FCX.
ReplyDeleteYeah, no gap up to contend with, either. Might retrace that first bar to $31.5x?
DeleteThe market cap hit they took for the oil buy was more than they spent on the acquisition, so a bouce is for sure due.
DeleteOne thing I have learned this year is the value of patience. The many weeks spent in cash was not a waste of time.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Damn, looks like the bull flag wasn't fake after-all.
ReplyDeleteNOK - Okay, there are several gaps up that need tending, are we still interested in this one or are there better choices?
ReplyDeleteI just can't seem to warn to this one. Maybe because it trades over seas first? I don't know, all those gaps make it look crazy to me.
DeleteFair enough, mucho comprendo! Which ones are you looking at or are you comfortably numb?
DeleteI'm still watching VELT. But honestly, I have a ton of risk on with NSPH...as you well know.
DeleteAt the close!!
VELT looks like yesterday was a good entry, might not be too late. Tight pincher on the daily but I've seen these give up considerably more on occasion but the ST pincher play is interesting.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VELT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p28853598929
The weekly looks horrible:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VELT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p24075771822
SPX - Red now, LOL!
ReplyDeleteOkay, so at least there's one gap taken care of, thought we might be sweating infinite gaps in purgatorium.
DeleteAGO/MET - Man, these insurance stocks sure do get banged around a lot.
ReplyDeleteie: boring isn't the word, frustrating is the description.
DeleteIf we could just get a bit of a rise in rates due to an improving economy, I think you'd see all the insurance companies really jump. They pretty much all have value and are underappreciated.
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting take on expectations for gold prices based on the choices FCX made when making acquisitions:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-9-billion-message-for-gold-and-silver-2012-12-06?link=MW_TD
2nd, I would say that 2012 was a good year for generally sitting in cash in buying strongly oversold markets. I don't know that you can extraplate this to be an every year approach or if it needs to be adjusted for different types of markets. I wonder if it works as well in more trending markets?
ReplyDeleteExactly. The approach worked this year, and that's really all I can say. I've learned my lesson re 'one approach fits all markets.'
DeleteDid anybody jump on AREX? check out the weekly
ReplyDeletelong
Looks like bull flag on weekly.
DeleteTrying AAPL @ 537.75...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 538.86.
DeleteOK, so we're talking all of 70 shares. After transactions costs, I'm up +$61. I can buy my own coffee now.
DeleteMCD coffee for you, not SBUX!
DeleteI was going to say looks good but your out. OK enjoy SBUX
DeleteFCX bid at 31.73 which is a little above .67 of the .50 Fib from yesterday's close to days high. Probaly should go right now as its close enough.
lock and loaded, if this is right should push into the close, I'll see.
DeleteGDX/GDXJ kind of fizzling out here. Are they now a buy? Not IMO.
ReplyDeleteI'm telling you, it's a middle finger.
Deletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
It's not unusual for gold to get beaten down prior to fed meetings.
DeleteThe ECB racheted down Europe's growth by 1% for 2013 and most likely will begin buying Spanish debt its form of QE.
People think that gold is in a bubble, well Faber asked a group of investors in Dubai how many own a 5% allocation in their accounts of gold, very few raised their hands. If he would ask this same question in 2000 of the QQQ's the room would have raised its hands.
That's a bubble, hey.
GGN goes ex-div in January:
Delete11/19/2012
" The Board of Trustees of the GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust by GABELLI (NYSE MKT:GGN) (the “Fund”) approved the continuation of its policy of paying monthly cash distributions. The Board of Trustees declared cash distributions of $0.12 per common share for each of January, February, and March 2013.
The distribution for January 2013 will be payable on January 24, 2013 to common shareholders of record on January 16, 2013."
that pays monthly at 11% er year.
Deletehave not look at GGN for years and is down -11.75% since SEP.
AAPL @ 534.43...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 536.71... (Yes, it was just another 70 shares).
DeleteOkay so the day following holding eurozone rates steady, Germany lowers growth forecasts now calling for a paltry 0.4% growth in 2013.
ReplyDeleteUmm, what's up with that?
Hard to believe but maybe the global economy picture isn't quite peaches and cream? Muddle, muddle....
Oh well, happy Pearl Harbor day everybody, don't overdo the egg nogg!
FEB gold is also bouncing off 200 ema which it slightly undercut about a month ago at 1677.
ReplyDeleteAAPL @ 533.55... I know, I'm asking for trouble.
ReplyDeleteAnd I got it. Now bidding 530 and change...
DeleteHoly shit. Someone just bought 100k shares of Z.
ReplyDeletebuyout coming? still find it hard for a YHOO or someone to ignore them with all of the traffic they get.
Delete91.90% of Z's float was short as of November 15, and the stock price has only moved up since then? Seriously? That has to put a solid floor under the stock
Deleteblock went at 26.85
DeleteFIDO shows short shares of 7,450,921 or 22.2% outstanding
Deletedays to cover 3.95
YHOO Finance also shows 7.45m shares short as of 11/15, but they calculate that as 91.90% of the float. Either way, there are a ton of shorts underwater right now.
DeleteZ 2013 could be the DELL of 1994. Short at your own risk.
DeleteZ on the move!
DeleteI'd say something positive but that would place a powerful jinx on it so mum's the word.
DeleteFCX also, for that matter.
DeleteEven karma cleanser has no effect on such jinxes, lag time of effect is no longer than 10~20 minutes depending on atmospheric conditions.
DeleteAREX let go nice 2 day move do not get greedy, plus vol is less than half 10 average.
ReplyDeletewill try to re-load it and Z which gave an opp earlier today, no complaints.
AAPL off @ 534.04. Moving on to better things.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit. Another 100k share order went through for Zillow on the Ask.
ReplyDeletewould love to wake up to a buyout Monday morning.
Deleteholy volatility...weird something is up. this isn't normally this crazy.
Deletecan't believe my eyes now selling off
Delete2nd said "YHOO Finance also shows 7.45m shares short as of 11/15, but they calculate that as 91.90% of the float. Either way, there are a ton of shorts underwater right now."
ReplyDelete2nd, so how do we know those shorts are underwater? How do we know those shares were not shorted during OCT sideways movememnt?
Just asking
Regardless someone is buying and or covering
DeleteYou're right, I have no idea whether they're underwater. What I should say is they're probably all looking back at 11/15 and wondering why they didn't cover then. The point is, the stock price has been trending up since the date we last have accurate information for, and shorts have had no opportunities to unload at better prices.
Deletetrue, nice trade, that drop was wicked fast.
DeleteZ @ 26.80!!
ReplyDeletethis is crazy. this thing is on crack today for some reason.
DeleteZ off @ 27.11!!
DeleteDon't ask me how the ---- I made that trade.
Deleteok just don't tell us why you sold it ok?
DeleteI never look a gift horse in the mouth. I'm actually ready to take a longer-term position in Z.
Deletea 2 day hold then?
DeleteUncovered candle from yesterday at $26.40?
DeleteAll I can say is, we've all seen this movie, no? Shake out the weak hands + allow market makers to move prices down to allow attractive entry points. Didn't we just watch the IMAX version of this with MMR?
Delete2nd - This is my thinking on what now is an excellent time to load up on Z. Nothing fundamentally has changed for the company. The "soft" revenue guidance was due entirely to their decision to build their own pre foreclosure platform in house instead of directing people to Foreclosure.com, who naturally pulled all of their ads from Zillow. The growth and huge market potential are still there and you get the stock at a 45% discount. But now the risk of a larger player scooping them up would have to be higher if they liked them before in the $40's.
DeleteSo TOF where do you pick up this info on Z 10Q's?
DeleteThe concept of nearly free stuff for the sake of gaining market share worked well for AMZN, is this basically the same concept?
DeleteOpening a LT position in Z @ 27.2x, and I'm going to throw it in the closet and fuggedaboudit.
ReplyDeleteThis could be AAPL @ 377 in December 2011.
DeleteIt could even be AAPL in 2005.
DeleteIt's more accurate to compare it to DELL 1994.
DeleteI'm guessing institutional buyers put in orders around 26.8x, and it was up to brokerages to hit that price.
Delete"I'm guessing institutional buyers put in orders around 26.8x, and it was up to brokerages to hit that price." that's an interesting take. normally the price isn't as volatile as it was during that little hour period. volume was through the roof so it very well could have been something like that.
DeleteBought into Z @ 27.25, but that gap and the retrace in a short float have me a little worried. 1 of two things can happen.
Delete1. The shorts get slaughtered on a squeeze. OR
2. They know something we don't and they hold and add to positions since they were likely short at 39.
BTW, this is the reason they make conditional orders with stops....
DeleteIt could easily fill most of the gap to the 50 dma and we could rake it in.
Here's a thought. GOOG, YHOO and INTC are all sitting on piles of cash. All would benefit strategically by adding Z to their platforms.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the day will end well for AAPL.
ReplyDeleteLots of lemonade being made right now...GRPN etc.
ReplyDeleteI'll make Margaritas at the appropriate time....SOON!
DeleteZNGA should start heading toward that gap...heading for $3.4 first. thats a huge move if it makes it.
DeleteI kinda thought it might follow today, but nope. I think it would be doing better if there wasn't any news related to gambling. Make people like me go..no way.
DeleteLook at the last hour in TLM. HEK strong today.
ReplyDeleteI really like the setups in SID and XCO. I think SID runs hard for the next couple of years as Brazil builds out for the olympics. Best part is it offers a nice yield. Objectivetrader had it on his list of rebounders, which is where I came across it. Easy to see it double from here and offer a 10% annual dividend. Maybe Zillow will get bought out on Monday and I'll have some free money to play with...ok I'll go back to reality.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Reality can suck sometimes.
DeleteIf you're going to bypass reality, go right to the Powerball.
DeleteDid you guys hear the nurse who answered that crank call at what's her faces hospital killed herself. Damn!
ReplyDeleteSD- Wow.
ReplyDeleteI feel like XCO is going to do that as well. Man i gotta start playing more stocks at one time. I've missed moves in IRE, ANR, NOK lately because I was so stuck on Z and DECK (which I also missed the majority of that move). argh!
DeleteI was thinking the exact same thing on my ride today...VELT/RIMM/SD etc.
DeleteMan, I thought you were keeping an eye on the oil patch for us? Sheesh!
DeleteWhat a great day, thanks guys for not ending the session and the week on a sour note! ;)
ReplyDeleteHere's a sour note. RYPMX closed up +1%.
ReplyDeleteBut that's OK. I'll trade missing the +1% for having dodged the -5.3%.
Delete2% of the 2016 vote: Looks like the Republican party definitely has this one tagged and bagged!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete