Friday, January 11, 2013
1/12/13 Solid Gold
Unbelievably, my portfolio closed the day at a new all-time high despite a -$16 selloff in gold prices. Due in part to adding a position in GDXJ on early morning weakness, but mainly to RYPMX closing the day down just -0.21%. I consider the 'divergence' a favorable indication of demand for miners (and/or exhaustion on the part of sellers) that will hopefully continue into next week.
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AMBS - +27%
ReplyDeleteDEER - -84%
ReplyDeleteWhat do the above represent, cp? Highest percentage winner and loser?
ReplyDeleteWe've been watching AMBS with curiosity, and MJ Fox was on the Letterman show last night.
DeleteDEER - This one's trading again, apparently.
Did Fox mention anything about it?
DeleteI left a note last night thinking since I'm 3 hrs ahead of you guys you might catch it. I caught the last 30sec's
DeleteApparently, MANF allegedly allows the production of dopamines to resume, lack of dopamines is cause of Parkinson's disease.
DeleteBut I didn't hear this from last night's Letterman show(which unfortunately I missed), I just read it tonight.
DeleteI just got back from kneeling down on the beach and kissing the sand to see that AMBS was up big today. Mark - next time shoot me a text when it's down to it's 50 DMA ok?
DeleteAlright, David. Time to launch the freaking miners. Monday morning, 9 am. Let's do this!
ReplyDeleteI am almost out of my buying power, but if you want to buy heavily on margin, get the price going, and then sell gradually into the rally -- I'll appreciate it. :)
DeleteSeriously, we have to get AUMN above $5 by the end of next week, so that my January $5 calls will amount to something... I have just submitted for publication another article on SeekingAlpha, which might help to accomplish that. :)
David- Are you positive there isn't another unexpected check about to arrive from the company? Or another credit card offer you can't turn down?
DeleteCheck this out, folks:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Visually, the correlation between the NY action in silver today and the action on Wednesday is almost 1. I guess the algos are running in a loop... :)
Anyone use Orbitz for booking travel? The stock is dirt cheap on a cash flow basis. Balance sheet is pretty lousy but it's getting better quickly.
ReplyDeleteIn case you didn't know, Priceline has killed it over the years because they dominate hotel bookings (I think about 90% of their revs come from hotel bookings). Meanwhile Orbitz has only historically gotten about 20% of revenues from hotels. That number, however, has grown from 27% in 2011 to 38% as of 9/30/12.
I always look at a turnaround in operating income as a sign of an overall turnaround for a business. Look at the turnaround going on at OWW:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=OWW&annual
Then click on the quarterly tab to see the continued improvement:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=OWW
Review:
Last 4 quarters:
24,910
14,872
3,944
(37,354)
Last 3 years:
2011: 4,711
2010: (11,804)
2009: (272,515)
They're generating about $70+ million per year in free cash flow. They have a rough balance sheet but the cash flow should pull them out of the hole. Right now they have a really bad current ratio (current assets divided by current liab) of about 0.52 (1.0 is average). This ratio has improved from 0.49 in 2011, 0.45 in 2010, and 0.40 in 2009...so it's clearly trending correctly. HOwever, they have $318 Million in ST Debt due. Most likely they will have to roll that over as long as their banks allow them which I see no reason why they wouldn't. Total ST and LT Debt is about $700 Million which is very high, but again they can manage it. If they were to use half of their cash on hand and put all of their cash flows except $10 Million toward paying down debt they would be down to $550 Million in debt and they could pay that amount down every year.
They're paying about $35 Million in interest expense (trailing twelve mths) which is equal to about $0.33 EPS. If the can cut that in 1/4 that gives them another $0.09 EPS. That would turn next year's estimate of $0.25 to $0.34. At 15 times earnings that could be a $5.00 stock. If they can continue to get traction in hotel bookings it could be very interesting.
The site gets a boat load of traffic...it's the 5th most trafficked site in the US ahead of Kayak which was bought out for 5 times their market cap:
http://www.tnooz.com/2013/01/08/data/cheapoair-travelocity-and-orbitz-all-vying-for-position-top-us-travel-websites-december-2012/
Curious to see if you guys use them.
btw - shares got tanked in the past couple of days because the recent CFO hire left after 2 months. could be a trading opportunity given they were on the rise before this happened.
DeleteI usually just call the airline/hotel directly when booking my personal reservations, or let the corporate travel department handle it in the case of business trips(company policy, they negotiate corporate rates).
DeleteMight be interesting to know how most corporations handle the task?
We've used Kayak and Travelocity in the past to find 'linked' deals (you can find amazing bargains when booking airfare + hotel combinations). When it's just lodging, we use CP's approach- better deals are available when booking directly with the hotel.
DeleteI use hotels.com (EXPE) and they've kind of got me locked in now with their buy 10, get 1 night free membership.
DeleteMarket cap on OWW is pretty small and P/S is 1/5th of EXPE, so should be good upside if they can even just figure out a niche that they can own. Trouble with web-sites like this is if they can't and fall too far behind (like Google did to all the search companies).
But is sure seems like someone would buy them out if their stock doesn't move.
the couple of peeps I asked over the last few months use Kayak.
DeleteCraig- My wife went to Costco yesterday and was surprised to find so many items marked down (eg, she picked up a slow cooker at half price). According to one of the employees, Christmas sales were disappointing, and they're doing what it takes to move stuff off the shelves.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how that will affect there earnings?
DeleteI also wonder if they are discounting Kirkland Anejo Tequila. Probably not, huh?
We're heading into Tumwater today so I'll check it out. Thank you for the tip!
Another sign money may be rotating into miners:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html
FCX was in second place! The list also includes GDX, XME, NEM, BHP, and VALE.
More NFLX recommendations:
ReplyDelete(a) Blood and Oil.
(b) The entire (original) Wallander series. Every episode I've watched of the 2009 season is well-written.
watched bourne legacy last night. solid movie. i'm a sucker for those movies.
Deletealso saw lincoln a couple of weeks ago...best movie i've seen in a long while.
Seems like it's been ages since Lincoln was last seen in a theater.
DeleteIn fact, I cannot recall ever seeing Lincoln in a theater.
Delete"David- Are you positive there isn't another unexpected check about to arrive from the company? Or another credit card offer you can't turn down?"
ReplyDeleteWell, I do have another credit card check for $15K, but I am trying to be reasonable and planning to use it by April 1 to roll-over another credit card debt of the same amount, for which the 1-year 0% period will expire in April.
I have way too much exposure to AUMN already, and if it rallies above $5 next week, then I'll be more than happy, because my 20 contracts of January $5 calls will then amount to something. After than, I have more than 100 contracts of April $5 calls, which I am planning to gradually sell between $5 and $7. In addition, I have already purchased January 2014 calls on GDXJ, SLV, and have also purchased 18K shares of PNPFF in December at the average cost of $0.87. So I am now in the profit-taking mode, rather than investing mode. :)
They'd raise your limit with each new check, if they were smart.
DeleteOWW was on my morningstar screen list where the last 2 quarters had postive EPS.
ReplyDeleteThe screen is below. Quarter 1 means the most recent quarter, Quarter 2 means 2 quarters ago and so forth.
I like the EPS part of the screen. I'll probably tinker with the cash flows later on.
(Last Close $ < 15)
and (Last Close $ > 1)
and (Earnings per Share $ - Quarter 1 > 0)
and (Earnings per Share $ - Quarter 2 > 0)
and (Earnings per Share $ - Quarter 3 < 0)
and (Earnings per Share $ - Quarter 4 < 0)
and (Cash Flow from Operations ($ mil) - Trailing 12 Months > 0)
and (Free Cash Flow ($ mil) - Trailing 12 Months > 0)
Well this is a pain in the butt. I was going to do a snapshot of all of my stocks from the screen as a table with last close price, TTM EPS and TTM Cash flows but I don't know how to do it. Here are the symbols. The only one I've purchased so far is CAMT.
DeleteCAMT
EAC
ES
EVC
GILT
HW
JAKK
JNY
LYV
OWW
PRXI
RDI
RJET
SKYW
SYSW
Shift+print-screen moves display memory onto your copy-paste scratchpad? Then pasting into MS-Paint, etc. gives you the opportunity to preserve it for eternity.
DeleteTA - So do we have any interest in this one? Seems relatively cheap still.
ReplyDeleteWe should have stops on Japanese and Chinese stocks.
ReplyDeletehttp://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/01/12/japan-china-scramble-military-jets-in-east-china-sea/
What, China doesn't have enough land already, they have to dispute some tiny islands?
DeleteFights always start over something like that. Even at home.
DeleteThat was quick, back to full time portfolio mgt (and some part time algo dev).
ReplyDeleteWhat, no Pacheco Pass commute?
DeleteChin up, bro. Two of my siblings (brother in HK and sister in Michigan) were each laid off twice in the past 5 years, and then moved on to better jobs after several months of searching. Just stay in the game.
Deleteway too much Pass commute, couldn't deal with the 8+hr commute and the 12 hour days...LOL
DeleteThx 2nd, going to refocus the search on local stuff. I think I have had my fill of hi-tech.
On the plus side my portfolio grew by 8.4% after withdrawals in 2012 so theoretically I don't need a day job...ha ha
You're theoretically correct! ;)
DeleteNatty - Anyone notice natty seems to have reversed to upside?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Rio-slums-From-no-go-to-must-buy-4190179.php
ReplyDeleteAnything is possible. I'd be selling now, not buying.
You couldn't find a buyer for your redwood-forested lot in the Santa Cruz mountains during the 60's.
DeleteOPTR - ????
ReplyDeleteSQNM - There's a recent gap down in this chart, and pretty dang good volume here.
ReplyDeleteIs this the pullback that gets bought, I so often hear about?
MLNX - I'm tempted to reinstate my $36 target.
ReplyDeleteAGO - I'd predict that if rates do rise as so few are predicting, it can only help this one. Perhaps tremendously?
JB - was it a voluntary move? Congrats on the management of your port last year. Good stuff and best of luck this year.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, the 9ers are really good huh?
Hussman's 'defense' of under-performance:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130114.htm
A few comments specific to the Strategic Growth Fund: Since the all-time high in Strategic Growth Fund on 9/17/08 through last Friday, the Fund has experienced a total peak-to-trough drawdown of 24.36%, including reinvested distributions. Of this, 21.45% of that decline occurred in the two months between 9/17/08 and 11/20/08. The period since then includes a moderate recovery followed by an extension of the 2008 drawdown by about 3%. By comparison, the deepest loss experienced by the S&P 500 during the recent cycle was 55.25%, including dividends, between 10/09/07 and 3/09/09.
To put some algebraic perspective on that difference in risk exposure, even if you’ve experienced a 24.36% drawdown, it takes more than an additional 40% decline to turn that into a 55.25% drawdown. Conversely, it takes a 69% advance just to turn a 55.25% drawdown into a 24.36% drawdown. So while we’ve been uncomfortable during the recent cycle, the notion that our risk has somehow approached that of the market, or that heroic gains are required to establish new highs, or even that we are very tolerant to risk, is simply a misjudgment in my view.
It would almost take a -50% decline, and pretty soon, for him to regain credibility.
DeleteHe probably still got paid though?
DeleteSure, although he claims to have most of his personal assets invested in Strategic Growth.
DeletePlatinum - Just $28 to go till this ol' turtle catches up.
ReplyDeleteGot Gold?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/the-governments-entire-bailout-strategy-was-to-cover-up-the-truth/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
What will it take to resolve this? What is on the Fed's books? How much will they need to print to overcome whatever it is? Who in their right mind would buy it? Does anyone think the banks won't do exactly as they have before? We hear about employment, but what about the REAL condition of the banks? If Buffett is in the banks, is it because they are at rock bottom?
What a cluster f _ ck.
Is there something new here, this all sounds like old news reprinted???????????
DeleteWasn't it just last week the Fed was jawboning us with the end of QE?
DeleteWhat total and utter bullshit. That's what this says.
Congrats Bay Area dudes. I think the 9'ers will be in the Superbowl. We came close but I'm still not thrilled with our coaching. A field goal call instead of a 4th down F up would have meant we'd be playing the 9'ers again. THAT would have been better. Anyway, I'm rooting West Coast.
ReplyDeleteI can promise the 9'ers won't be playing the Skins in the bowl.
DeleteYeah, I know that much, although it would have been fun to have both NFC teams West coast.
DeleteWe are going to have a long and violent rivalry.
AMBS- TOF, better have Chicken do it. I lose track
ReplyDeleteHell, I can barely get a chart on the thing, just one source.
DeleteGold - What is Basel III and why aren't we discussing this as opposed to old news hyperventilating over the fairness of market interventions?
ReplyDelete"Basel III, which is the third iteration of capital and regulatory standards, has reclassified gold as a Tier I asset. This may sound like Latin to non-banking folks, so let’s clarify a bit. When Basel I was released, commercial banks needed to have a capital adequacy ratio of 8 percent, which meant that for every $100 of loans or other assets a bank held, it would need owner capital of 8 percent.
Now the owner capital is divided into several tiers. So, for instance, government bonds were treated as Tier I capital and had a weight of 100 percent, which means a $100 bond would be given $100 value when calculating capital adequacy. Under Basel I and II, standard gold was treated as Tier III capital and given a weight of 50 percent. So, for capital adequacy purposes, $100 worth of gold would only be given a value of $50. Now in Basel III, gold is treated as Tier I capital, which means that gold will given its full value when calculating capital adequacy ratios.
Basel III goes into effect on 1 January 2013 and we believe that demand from commercial banks would drive up prices. Of course, banks are not going to jump in to buy gold on New Year. Their demand has been around for some time as they have slowly begun increasing gold reserves, with a lot of demand coming in from central banks. As of January 2013, the value of gold reserves already held by banks will double for capital adequacy purposes. This will prompt gold bears to state that banks would begin selling excess gold reserves and push prices down. However, it’s more likely that banks would reduce other assets like government bonds and cash to move to a more trusted asset like gold. Gold has always increased in value unlike cash and government bonds."
SQNM - Short float's pretty high, then again finviz data is too often FUBAR.
ReplyDeleteNot sure why anyone would ever pay for the service, considering this.
Pear Fisher has their 2013 Outlook available for free. According to his charts, there's a lot of stuff breaking out or set up to break out.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pfiii.com/newsletters/
CP, for some reason I thought you lived in Canada.
I'm just happy my Texans showed up for the game. I'd like to thank the ref's too helping us occasionally too. It wasn't just the calls they made either. A couple of my offensive linemen were pretty good at making tackles look like blocks.
No sir, not in Canukistan.... East coast central.
DeleteI'm going through the stockchart's strong volume gainer scan for last Friday.
ReplyDeleteREDF and DNDN are showing up.
Stockcharts also has a ticker NGB/PA - National Bank Of Greece SA and it shows a closing price of $9.27. I can't find that symbol in Etrade but I do have NGB - National Bank of Greece SA with a closing price of $1.75.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOn Basel III: below is an excerpt from
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/06/proposed-banking-regulations-would-drive-gold-prices-higher.html
"In terms of amount of gold that could be purchased that is harder still – if we thought that say 2% of total current Tier 1 capital held by commercial banks globally might be converted into gold (forgetting for a moment about the increases in capital yet to be seen) – this would suggest that 2% of the $4,276 bn would be converted to gold. That is equivalent to $85 bn in gold which at current market prices is equivalent to 1,700 tonnes of gold."
However, on January 1 2013 banks only had to increase their tier 1 capital by 0.5%:
http://www.moodysanalytics.com/~/media/Insight/Regulatory/Basel-III/Thought-Leadership/2012/2012-19-01-MA-Basel-III-FAQs.ashx
»» Tier 1 Capital Ratio: increases from 4% to 6%
»» The ratio will be set at 4.5% from 1 January 2013, 5.5% from 1 January 2014 and 6%
from 1 January 2015
So if all that 0.5% increase was made using gold, then only 1/4 of the 1700 tonnes of gold would need to be purchased. Realistically, only a part of that increase will be made using gold, so we'll be lucky if extra 100 tonnes of gold will be purchased by all central banks around the world in 2013 as a result of Basel III. In comparison, China bought 91 tonnes of gold last November. So, the way I see it, the direct impact of Basel III on gold is minimal.
Later, I read somewhere else (Found article at Kitco) that gold wasn't made an tier 1 asset by Basel III and that it's just misinformation. According to this article there are also some sort of "levels", and gold was raised to level I from a lower level.
DeleteSo, I don't know.....
Hussman pulled in over $60 million in fees in his latest annual report, so he's doing fine (unlike his investors). The big risk for people holding his fund now is that investors get fed up with his 5 year underperformance (this seems to be what a lot of mutual fund investors look at) and start dumping his fund. As redemptions come in, he will be forced to sell into whatever market conditions exist and this can create a vicous cycle as poor sales cause further underperformance, generating more redemptions, etc.
ReplyDeleteMean ol' Mr Market!
DeleteWho runs Dunkin Donuts restaurants? My feeble mind can't recall.....
ReplyDeleteLooking to see if I can find it......
Stand alone. DNKN
DeleteDNKN had an IPO last year. I like DNKN but I think GMCR is marginally hurting companies like DNKN. If GMCR can close the gap down around $30 in my opinion it's an excellent long term buy. It reminds me of MNST.
Delete2nd - you will like this:
ReplyDelete"The HUI Index offers the best gains ahead compared to SPX and OT believes we shall see far higher prices by summer 2013. Confirmation will be break 460"
http://www.objectivetrader.com/2013/01/weekend-musing-12-january-2013-1.html
@tof - yes it was voluntary. Major misunderstanding regarding travel/expenses etc. I could have hung around for some time but since I know some of the players (execs and board members) I felt like it was best to just get out of there so they can bring in a local guy.
ReplyDeletePlatinum - $17 still closing the gap.....
ReplyDelete$12 now......
Delete#11.....
DeleteFAZ - Man this turd sure is beat up.
ReplyDeleteDRI - Here's a potential island reversal in the making?
ReplyDeletePotential double bottom on hourly chart for OWW. I might go long here. Very oversold on hourly basis.
ReplyDeleteOk...long OWW at $2.84. Bought on margin for a trade.
DeleteI'm looking at ARR. Desperate times?
ReplyDeletewhat's the thesis?
DeleteFixed income earners are desperate for return, I guess. But not desperate enough to drive these REIT dividends into single digits for some reason........ Go figure.
DeleteSPY - If I'm looking at an inverse H%S, the geometric target would be $155, indicating another 5% upside from here.
ReplyDeleteDamn gaps up!
I think the Yen will continue to remain oversold for several months, allowing people little in the way of opportunities to get in on Japanese ADRs on pullbacks.
ReplyDeleteI'm still working on comprehending Japan's strategy, I think they should be making some natural resource grabs.
DeleteDisinflation is recessionary last I checked so if the market bids up the currency, then it only seems logical Japan should embark on a spending spree to take advantage.
honestly, the more worthless stuff they throw money at the better if you're looking to buy any Japanese exporters. Get that Yen down.
DeleteWorthless stuff - Good point LOL, maybe they run into difficulty finding overpriced stuff to help their cause?
DeleteThe world is over infatuated with paper and debt instruments.
"The world is over infatuated with paper and debt instruments."
DeleteYep, and the only thing we can do as investors is accept it as part of life, move on, and find ways to profit from the market. This has been going on for decades / centuries. Back in 2008 I read a ton about the great depression era because everyone was convinced we were heading into one and I wanted to get a sense for what life was like. The overriding theme that I came away with as it pertains to the economy and markets was that the government was bailout happy. It was honestly not that much different than now in those regards...just that the dollar amounts were different (although maybe they were similar in relative terms?). The mass media and the public were up in arms about the bailouts and how our government would have zero credibility and how our currency was worthless.
So whenever I hear people get all fired up about it now I just remember everything I read and think how most people probably don't know history well enough to realize that things really haven't changed much over time.
AGO - Seems possible we may close the gap up? The double top likely increases the possibility.
ReplyDeleteThat whole flu trade and NSPH could last a lot longer than you guys think...
ReplyDeleteHopefully NSPH gets well soon!
DeleteAdded some more OWW at $2.82. Avg $2.83.
ReplyDeleteSo I have 20 contracts of January $5 calls on AUMN, for which I have a sell limit order at $1. It looks like that order won't be hit this week. However, I have figured out another way of making the desired $2K: I just sold 20 contracts of July $5 calls at $1 each! I am pretty sure that by *July* AUMN will be above $5. If not, then I'll buy 2K shares at $4, which is a great entry for a company that will keep growing its production as far as the eye can see.
ReplyDeleteWhat is SIL doing in the red, while SLV is up 2% today? Any takes for SIL?
ReplyDeleteSIL is comprised of miners.
DeleteSNE is forming an inverse head and shoulders for the chart pattern guys. 4 weeks in a row of very tight closes but it looks like it might be breaking that trend early this week.
ReplyDeleteI think investors are looking around and realizing SNE is next:
AAPL tanking
NOK, RIMM, HPQ all ripping higher.
The best part is SNE is the cheapest by far based on price to sales (based on 2012 sales):
SNE: 0.14
HPQ: 0.27
DELL: 0.33
NOK: 0.43
RIMM:0.68
Samsung: 1.10
AAPL: 3.08
SNE is worth 1/5 the value of RIMM and 1/3 the value of NOK based on price to sales. Bizarre.
Since November, SIL made a quadruple bottom at $22. With silver clearly picking up off the bottom it made in December, I think SIL will surge soon. So I just purchased 500 shares at $22.40 and placed a sell stop limit at $21.75/$21.50.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- SNE definitely seems like a good position to enter in the near future. But is now the best time? With FXY so oversold, it must have a vicious short-covering rally soon, and SNE will probably be abandoned on that rally. The safest time to enter Japan-related positions (FXY short, SNE long), IMO, is after the vicious short-covering rally in FXY takes place.
ReplyDeletenot when something (i.e., Yen) is coming out of a 40 year bull market.
DeleteNLY - Back to $14.68, I consider this a support level and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it did fail. A move under $14.54 would raise one eyebrow, and anything under $14.31 I'd be looking to add assuming the syphilitic world of high finance doesn't return to a desperate state of collapse.
ReplyDeleteBernanke speaks after close?
ReplyDeleteQuestion and answer session afterward, event scheduled for 16:30 apparently.
DeleteDid you folks know this? I got this from Cumberland Advisors...
ReplyDelete****
Here is the second myth – despite what the public believes, there is no Social Security Trust Fund. What the government calls the Social Security Trust Fund is nothing but an accounting entity whose only assets are Treasury debt. Payroll Social Security taxes go directly into the general fund of the Treasury and are spent like other tax receipts. Despite what the average citizen believes, employee contributions in the form of the payroll tax to Social Security are not set aside for the future, but are spent and gone. The only assets the Trust Fund has are claims on future tax revenues or debt issuance represented by its holdings of US Treasury debt. It happens that, right now, Social Security’s receipts exceed its payments to pensioners, but the fact is that the revenue used to pay retirees today comes from current payments from active workers, not from reserves accumulated from funds retirees paid in when they were working. Those reserves don’t exist. There is no accumulated “savings account.” As more and more baby boomers retire, Social Security disbursements will exceed receipts, and the fiction of the trust fund will be exposed. This accounting charade needs to be fixed and Social Security funding issues addressed. But the recent Congressional approach isn’t the answer and certainly isn’t a fix.
****
Sure did!
DeleteTwo problems most likely coming in our liftime:
1) Bernacke's ZIRP policy will gut social security in 20 to 30 years these assets produce no return for the trust fund.
2) Already law, when debits exceed credits by $1 it is mandated by law that social security receipients receive an across the board cut of 25% of benefits.
Ah simple times.
Simpler times...I was just talking to JB about that a few weeks ago.
Delete"when debits exceed credits by $1 it is mandated by law that social security receipients receive an across the board cut of 25% of benefits."
DeleteSorta puts the squeeze on those college grads out looking for employment when the old fartz are being forced to stick it out.
2nd_ave -- have you seen the Hulbert Gold Sentiment chart that Geoff posted today? It has become as low as it ever did, which suggests that a LARGE rally can take place soon...
ReplyDeleteSQNM - There ya go, not too bad eh? $4.25ish is a pretty good level of support this one could run to %6?
ReplyDeleteI really like the 6-month SIL chart. Placed a buy stop limit order for 500 more shares at $22.60/$22.75, just above the recent 7-day high, so as to catch it on the way up when it does move up.
ReplyDeleteYuck...Not so COOL.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but .65/share cash. Sees FY 2013 flat. Could be trading for cash here soon???
DeleteThat ain't no menthol........
DeleteChicken Little predicts the sky is falling.
ReplyDeleteThoughts?
http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=F511C512-5B5A-11E2-8515-002128040CF6
The good news? It looks like booze will be cheap.
Could this be the plan re: social security?
Deletethat's what i'm talking about! i've been following his advice for 4 years now and shorting the market non stop. i'm looking forward to when the drop happens so i can turn my 90% losses into 85%!
DeleteOh man, the beat down just never ceases, does it? At what level if ever, does this brand of rhetoric finally become classified an aggravated assault?
DeleteI knew you would like it.
DeleteLike they say "predict early and often".
Seriously, do we get a big correction? Who TF knows? Gary Shilling is just yelling fire in a crowded theater hoping to get a good seat.
"Gary Shilling is just yelling fire in a crowded theater hoping to get a good seat."
DeleteYeah, it's entertaining except listening to crap like that leads to big time opportunity costs.
Don't ask how I know this.......
AMBS - +25% I'm not sure how they did that though, coulda' been 5 shares at end of session for all I know.
ReplyDeleteAGO - These guys in control of this stock play a mean game of hardball, that's for sure.....
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteper oppemheimer
Gold Bullion Spot Price
12 Consecutive years where the December 31st closing price of Gold has been higher than the prior year
Year-end
Price $ Chg % Chg
2000 272.25
2001 278.95 6.70 2%
2002 348.05 69.10 25%
2003 415.45 67.40 19%
2004 438.45 23.00 6%
2005 517.00 78.55 18%
2006 636.70 119.70 23%
2007 833.70 197.00 31%
2008 882.05 48.35 6%
2009 1096.98 214.93 24%
2010 1421.40 324.42 30%
2011 1564.91 143.51 10%
2012 1675.80 110.89 7%
It is Oppenheimer's judgment that the streak will be broken in 2013…
that Gold will close lower in 2013 than it closed on Monday, December 31st 2012.
The current view is that Gold Bullion is headed to the $1,500/oz level in the first half of 2013.
Yeah, I'm trying to recall what they predicted last year, and near the top. I'm not sure of their record but aren't they in a majority?
DeleteI kinda have a hunch whomever's trying to crap on every market tick up is the same group pumping PM's.
The underlying message I keep hearing goes something like this: "The sky is falling, buy PM's!"
I meant "minority", seems like everyone's predicting supercalifragilisticinflation while at the same time $0.05 gasoline.
DeleteI bet it doesn't but i have zero read on how to value Gold.
DeleteSo how do they make such a prediction? This is as bad a Shilling.
DeleteTechnically it has a lot of support underneath it.
On the other side Volcker said one of his 'mistakes' was letting gold get in the $800's.
Maybe the Fed just wants to keep it below a certain price for their own purposes?
AGO - This could also where the last few diehard longs get faked out on this retest of the 20SMA thinking the gap's gonna close.
ReplyDeleteWhile instead, the inverse H&S to $16.50 is the real move.........
Maybe Shilling's got my back on this one, huh?
Need some of the uncertainty to clear up and it sounds like it finally will:
Deletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11812361/1/assured-guaranty-gearing-up-for-a-flurry-of-trading-analyst.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Remember, the Fed is exclusively these aliens....
ReplyDeletehttp://noahpinionblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/why-do-people-think-economists-are.html
MIL - This chart neatly places Shilling's BS directly into the bit bucket.
ReplyDeleteMLNX - What's with this monkey business?
ReplyDeleteOpen=high=close=$50.51