AAPL is going to be dragging things down, especially on the Nasdaq, for years I bet.
No-way they can maintain the momentum required to support a $500 million market cap as smart phones become commoditized. Happens with every technology.
I notice this article cites 1985 as the point in time in which the savings rate dropped. What else was happening in the early 80's that precipitated this drop? AAMOF, just one year before?
Ronald Reagan was elected, appointed Milton Friedman as his Chief economic adviser, promptly broke the Air Traffic Controllers Union, started the exportation of jobs overseas and just a year later appointed Alan Greenspan who we know best for the "Greenspan Put" which was the lowering of yields for bonds and SAVINGS. George H.W. Bush couldn't have been more correct entitling it "Voodoo economics".
If we want people to save, there MUST be earnings above inflation, there must also be compound interest that builds savings above the rate of inflation. Otherwise people will not only spend today's money to maintain purchasing power or lifestyle, but they will borrow at those same low rates knowing they will be paying back today's debt in tomorrows worthless currency.
If we want to know what happened we have the perfect timeline and chain of idiotic policies.
COOL- Got closer than I thought. I see a trade for .71. Reading a little closer, it looks like a loss for 2013, not breakeven. So we drop our/my PT to .65-.07-.06(10% pissed off factor) to get a price of .52?
AAMC- Kaas is pumping this one. Been trading for about 2 months. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/altisource-asset-management-corporation-begins-150900793.html
INFI - Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Strictly technical - seems to fit the Landry TKO method except that it's on the verge of pulling back to many days in a row. Today's hi was 33.57 and the low was 32.13. Average true range over 14 days is about $1.50. Buy trigger at 33.67 with a stop of 31.42 (using the lower of "the low -.10 ish OR ATR x 1.5) Stop is Purchase Price less $2.25(1.5 x 1.5 just a coincidence that ATR is also 1.5).
Financials look terrible so it makes sense that it should rally?
Okay, if you are going to use the Landry system, then you should use the Landry system!!!
1. 7 days pullback is not too many. Dave starts losing interest at about 9 days, but if he likes the set up he'll hang on for a few more.
The trigger is 35.51 if you are early and 35.87 if you want a safe entry. The volatility is over $3, so the entry would be 35.55, the pt would be either 38.55 and the stop would be 32.55. That would be with the lowest entry. The safest would be 35.90 entry, 38.90 pt and a 32.90 stop. The largest red bar (in 3 mos) is a bit over $3 high to low, so you may want to give it even more room, but if you are using the Landry knockout, you have to wait for it to re-establish the trend. Position size would be 2% of total portfolio divided by $3.
It would make sense that a real surge in the price of gold starts, first, with the increased importance banks attach to gold. First Basel III, now this:
Makes a lot of sense if price of gold rises, and, in my mind, that is a big IF. But would definitely favour miners over bullion at this time if I was going to go in.
Probably the worst thing about this though is that this was the most read article on the Toronto Globe and Mail yesterday - not a sign of an underfollowed asset.
Natty - What better way for Japan to lower the value of their currency than to switch over to imported energy? Can't contract mad cow, north mile, or foot in mouth disease importing energy.
"When I'm bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up." - Jesse Livermore
"this idea that central banks can simply print up the money to finance government deficits is completely absurd"
I believe Federal taxes should be set to zero and government should simply print money to finance operations(printing is flat taxation, this form of taxation should be real time). No need for any public debt whatsoever.
The only problem is it is largely unseen. The only way anyone would know is by the prices they paid, which could get out of hand pretty quickly. It's not very progressive, but it isn't now. The wealthy would be able to offset their losses while the poor would lack the means to. What about states and local municipalities? They can't print.
Just think it through, of course there should be complete transparency concerning the budgetary process. There could still be state and local taxation as long as those budgets are balanced on a periodic basis as they are now, primarily b/c of the fact they don't have the luxury of printing currency (the root of all evil and the solution to our ills).
Anyway, I don't mind if someone else works out the minor details like they're supposedly paid to do, I'd be happy to provide helpful guidance as necessary for a small fee and most certainly oversight at no charge.
"The wealthy would be able to offset their losses while the poor would lack the means to."
And I'm not quite sure what you mean by this, the poor theoretically have little money thus they pay less tax but at the same rate, which is miles fairer than the current system, no?
The entire purpose of government is supposed to be to serve the people, not compete against them.
The wealthy have the means to purchase those assets that appreciate with (keep pace with) or exceed inflation caused by printing, so it isn't a flat tax.
The current system uses both a progressive tax AND inflation. The poor still get screwed with inflation but if they are poor enough don't pay income tax but still pay SS and medicare on 100% of whatever they make while the wealthy only pay on earned income (not the primary source for many of them) and only on earned income below $110K. I think it's sufficiently vague enough to not know if one would be better. If I were (more) wealthy under your plan I would put nearly everything in hard assets and keep as little cash as possible. Not an option for the poor.
I can't agree more with the final sentence. The primary culprits being both the government and the central bank. Without a central bank the owners of capital would have been able to choose which bankrupt or seriously flawed banks should live or die and the banks would be forced to get their shit together or become welfare recipients on a personal level. Personally I would be doing much better since I had no debt and had capital.
"I would put nearly everything in hard assets and keep as little cash as possible."
Seems perfectly logical, what's wrong with that? I'd also be able to invest, as opposed to attempting to time the market based on manipulative news clips.
I'm infuriated at the phenomenon that some politician somewhere is constantly intervening in my personal financial affairs on behalf of someone else.
AGO - All right then, we closed the gap up and it took no time at all....... What more could we want outta this turnip, maybe now the anchor is raised we can move on with business?
Earnings should be fine as there hasn't been any adverse court rulings this quarter, markets were OK and interest rates went up a bit, so probably helps.
I wouldn't expect earnings up soon. It is year-end, so results take longer and will need to be audited. Last year, they weren't out till Feb.
Analysts looking for $0.71 for the Q and $2.50 for the year. Trailing P/E will be under 6. Stock is dirt cheap, management is smart, and stock price will certainly go up unless something bad happens - everything I read about their court cases is positive.
I bought some DMND at $13.75 and $13.85...looks like it's breaking out today. We shall see since it's been putting in false breakouts for 16 months now.
If SLV closes at this level, then its closing price will be highest since December 20th, surpassing the peak it made on January 2nd. On the other hand, SIL is still lagging, staying well below the January 2nd peak. Thus, I think SIL will be pulled up over the next few days. As such, I decided not to wait until my buy stop gets triggered at $22.60 and bought 500 more shares of SIL at $22.43. Together with yesterday's purchase, I now have 1000 shares at the average price of $22.415. I placed a sell stop limit for all these shares at $21.75/$21.50, since I can't afford now to have another "graveyard" position using up my margin buying power...
Folks, take a look at the 6-month chart of GDXJ -- wouldn't a breakout above $20.75 suggest that the bottom is in? If so, then have you placed buy stop orders at $20.75?
Why? Silver is leading gold (it will close today at the highest point since December 20), the risk is ON, so the miners should definitely follow soon...
I like the morning spike down in SIL -- hopefully that had satisfied the desire of the black box algos to shake out the weak hands, and now the path to the upside is all clear!
It's moves like this that make me reluctant to sell anything, and instead question the motives of shady characters spouting obvious BS, such as SHILLing.
CC - thanks for the breakdown on INFI, which was up 5.71% today. I just signed up for Dave's introductory offer although i'll probably stay with it for awhile.
I bot a 1/4 position in NIHD at $6.22 after reading Jesse's twitter and looking at the report he did last week. I have another buy order in at $5.40.
So the reason the indexes closed mixed is all AAPL.
ReplyDeleteAAPL is going to be dragging things down, especially on the Nasdaq, for years I bet.
DeleteNo-way they can maintain the momentum required to support a $500 million market cap as smart phones become commoditized. Happens with every technology.
I thought it was Shrilling's article.........
ReplyDeleteSchilling does occasionally come across as shrill.
DeleteCP, re your post on AGO:
ReplyDeleteNeed some of the uncertainty to clear up and it sounds like it finally will:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11812361/1/assured-guaranty-gearing-up-for-a-flurry-of-trading-analyst.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Eeeekkk!?!?!?..........
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/baby-boomers-beware-2013-01-14?link=kiosk
ReplyDeleteI notice this article cites 1985 as the point in time in which the savings rate dropped. What else was happening in the early 80's that precipitated this drop? AAMOF, just one year before?
DeleteRonald Reagan was elected, appointed Milton Friedman as his Chief economic adviser, promptly broke the Air Traffic Controllers Union, started the exportation of jobs overseas and just a year later appointed Alan Greenspan who we know best for the "Greenspan Put" which was the lowering of yields for bonds and SAVINGS. George H.W. Bush couldn't have been more correct entitling it "Voodoo economics".
If we want people to save, there MUST be earnings above inflation, there must also be compound interest that builds savings above the rate of inflation. Otherwise people will not only spend today's money to maintain purchasing power or lifestyle, but they will borrow at those same low rates knowing they will be paying back today's debt in tomorrows worthless currency.
If we want to know what happened we have the perfect timeline and chain of idiotic policies.
"chain of idiotic policies."
DeleteIt became immediately obvious when they told us they were sending jobs overseas on purpose.
COOL- Got closer than I thought. I see a trade for .71. Reading a little closer, it looks like a loss for 2013, not breakeven. So we drop our/my PT to .65-.07-.06(10% pissed off factor) to get a price of .52?
ReplyDeleteJust scanned the call. It's a freaking mess. Forget about it other than a quick trade.
DeleteAAMC- Kaas is pumping this one. Been trading for about 2 months. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/altisource-asset-management-corporation-begins-150900793.html
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the chart.
Keeps on truckin'.......
DeleteMIL - Check this company out guys, see if you think there may be more upside.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/opinion/krugman-japan-steps-out.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=1&
ReplyDeleteGood read.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/abe-rocket-start-lowers-sony-risk-with-market-fuel-japan-credit.html
ReplyDeleteReciprocity is absolute.
DeleteINFI - Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ReplyDeleteStrictly technical - seems to fit the Landry TKO method except that it's on the verge of pulling back to many days in a row. Today's hi was 33.57 and the low was 32.13. Average true range over 14 days is about $1.50. Buy trigger at 33.67 with a stop of 31.42 (using the lower of "the low -.10 ish OR ATR x 1.5) Stop is Purchase Price less $2.25(1.5 x 1.5 just a coincidence that ATR is also 1.5).
Financials look terrible so it makes sense that it should rally?
Okay, if you are going to use the Landry system, then you should use the Landry system!!!
Delete1. 7 days pullback is not too many. Dave starts losing interest at about 9 days, but if he likes the set up he'll hang on for a few more.
The trigger is 35.51 if you are early and 35.87 if you want a safe entry.
The volatility is over $3, so the entry would be 35.55, the pt would be either 38.55 and the stop would be 32.55. That would be with the lowest entry. The safest would be 35.90 entry, 38.90 pt and a 32.90 stop. The largest red bar (in 3 mos) is a bit over $3 high to low, so you may want to give it even more room, but if you are using the Landry knockout, you have to wait for it to re-establish the trend. Position size would be 2% of total portfolio divided by $3.
It would make sense that a real surge in the price of gold starts, first, with the increased importance banks attach to gold. First Basel III, now this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/it-begins-bundesbank-commence-repatriating-gold-new-york-fed
Top gold fund manager calling for 60% - 90% rise in gold equities this year due to leverage to gold price as gold price tops $2,000:
Deletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/gold-stocks-to-surge-as-much-as-90-this-year-fund-manager/article7252899/
Makes a lot of sense if price of gold rises, and, in my mind, that is a big IF. But would definitely favour miners over bullion at this time if I was going to go in.
Probably the worst thing about this though is that this was the most read article on the Toronto Globe and Mail yesterday - not a sign of an underfollowed asset.
DeleteGDXJ - Morning buyers immediately being Baptized.
DeleteCELG - ????????????? Yep, this market's in real trouble!
ReplyDeleteNatty - What better way for Japan to lower the value of their currency than to switch over to imported energy? Can't contract mad cow, north mile, or foot in mouth disease importing energy.
ReplyDeleteBACML has a buy on CHK........
Other options might be GLNG/LNG???
Japan is already the worlds largest Natty importer.
Delete"Japan is already the worlds largest Natty importer."
DeleteMy plan is already working!!!!!!!!
AGO - Somebody panicked?
ReplyDeleteQuote of the day - The Big Picture
ReplyDelete"When I'm bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up." - Jesse Livermore
SQNM - I'm thinking this one's a buy here.
ReplyDeleteIf one was really stingy, 4.00 would be sweet.
DeleteMy goal is to be Captain Stingy, placed an GTC bid at $3.76
DeleteThere's an obligatory gap up from $2.89 as well, to keep in mind. Maybe I'll just cancel that bid and wait a while.
DeleteGDXJ> Half off @ 20.46...
ReplyDeleteThe long gold trade? The markets can stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent....
ReplyDeletehttp://money.msn.com/bill-fleckenstein/post.aspx?post=bd3cbe82-5585-4a73-923e-dee69645e8d0
"this idea that central banks can simply print up the money to finance government deficits is completely absurd"
DeleteI believe Federal taxes should be set to zero and government should simply print money to finance operations(printing is flat taxation, this form of taxation should be real time). No need for any public debt whatsoever.
The only problem is it is largely unseen.
DeleteThe only way anyone would know is by the prices they paid, which could get out of hand pretty quickly. It's not very progressive, but it isn't now.
The wealthy would be able to offset their losses while the poor would lack the means to.
What about states and local municipalities? They can't print.
Just think it through, of course there should be complete transparency concerning the budgetary process. There could still be state and local taxation as long as those budgets are balanced on a periodic basis as they are now, primarily b/c of the fact they don't have the luxury of printing currency (the root of all evil and the solution to our ills).
DeleteAnyway, I don't mind if someone else works out the minor details like they're supposedly paid to do, I'd be happy to provide helpful guidance as necessary for a small fee and most certainly oversight at no charge.
"The wealthy would be able to offset their losses while the poor would lack the means to."
DeleteAnd I'm not quite sure what you mean by this, the poor theoretically have little money thus they pay less tax but at the same rate, which is miles fairer than the current system, no?
The entire purpose of government is supposed to be to serve the people, not compete against them.
The wealthy have the means to purchase those assets that appreciate with (keep pace with) or exceed inflation caused by printing, so it isn't a flat tax.
DeleteThe current system uses both a progressive tax AND inflation. The poor still get screwed with inflation but if they are poor enough don't pay income tax but still pay SS and medicare on 100% of whatever they make while the wealthy only pay on earned income (not the primary source for many of them) and only on earned income below $110K. I think it's sufficiently vague enough to not know if one would be better. If I were (more) wealthy under your plan I would put nearly everything in hard assets and keep as little cash as possible. Not an option for the poor.
I can't agree more with the final sentence. The primary culprits being both the government and the central bank. Without a central bank the owners of capital would have been able to choose which bankrupt or seriously flawed banks should live or die and the banks would be forced to get their shit together or become welfare recipients on a personal level. Personally I would be doing much better since I had no debt and had capital.
"I would put nearly everything in hard assets and keep as little cash as possible."
DeleteSeems perfectly logical, what's wrong with that? I'd also be able to invest, as opposed to attempting to time the market based on manipulative news clips.
I'm infuriated at the phenomenon that some politician somewhere is constantly intervening in my personal financial affairs on behalf of someone else.
AAPL - Analysts are consistent, Upgrade the top, downgrade the bottom?
ReplyDeleteThe geometric target was $440, and it could potentially undershoot, no?
1466 needs to hold and we need to see a move back over 1468
ReplyDeleteAGO - All right then, we closed the gap up and it took no time at all....... What more could we want outta this turnip, maybe now the anchor is raised we can move on with business?
ReplyDeleteNo doubt upside is unlikely b/c earnings are just around the corner.
DeleteThis gap up was from $14.24 -> $14.39, perhaps a close today $14.39 or better will assist in regaining some measure of confidence?
DeleteEarnings should be fine as there hasn't been any adverse court rulings this quarter, markets were OK and interest rates went up a bit, so probably helps.
DeleteI wouldn't expect earnings up soon. It is year-end, so results take longer and will need to be audited. Last year, they weren't out till Feb.
Analysts looking for $0.71 for the Q and $2.50 for the year. Trailing P/E will be under 6. Stock is dirt cheap, management is smart, and stock price will certainly go up unless something bad happens - everything I read about their court cases is positive.
GMO - Gap up from $3.43, so don't get your panties in a twist yet!!!
ReplyDeleteBalance of GDXJ off @ 20.52...
ReplyDeleteVIX article
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703792204578219751890990848.html?buffer_share=973b4&mod=BOL_hps_dc&utm_source=buffer
"By mid-February, the VIX probably will edge higher, as investors prepare for the debt-ceiling debate."
DeleteGood point, TVIX volume has been tapering off.
MLNX - Jumped today, suggesting another leg down starts out of the gate tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteI bought some DMND at $13.75 and $13.85...looks like it's breaking out today. We shall see since it's been putting in false breakouts for 16 months now.
ReplyDeleteI also took a small loss on the OWW...sold it at $2.78 today.
ReplyDeleteIf SLV closes at this level, then its closing price will be highest since December 20th, surpassing the peak it made on January 2nd. On the other hand, SIL is still lagging, staying well below the January 2nd peak. Thus, I think SIL will be pulled up over the next few days. As such, I decided not to wait until my buy stop gets triggered at $22.60 and bought 500 more shares of SIL at $22.43. Together with yesterday's purchase, I now have 1000 shares at the average price of $22.415. I placed a sell stop limit for all these shares at $21.75/$21.50, since I can't afford now to have another "graveyard" position using up my margin buying power...
ReplyDeleteWhat a timely entry! Just before a large spike down in the whole sector...
DeleteFolks, take a look at the 6-month chart of GDXJ -- wouldn't a breakout above $20.75 suggest that the bottom is in? If so, then have you placed buy stop orders at $20.75?
ReplyDeleteGold - Platinum = $1
ReplyDeletePlatinum - gold = $1
DeletePlat - gold = $2
DeleteLTBR - Nope, CCJ - Yep, the jury is in?
ReplyDeleteWill exit RYPMX at the close.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Silver is leading gold (it will close today at the highest point since December 20), the risk is ON, so the miners should definitely follow soon...
DeleteCPST - UUUUUkkkkkkkkk!
ReplyDeleteWell it finally moved off a buck!
DeleteI like the morning spike down in SIL -- hopefully that had satisfied the desire of the black box algos to shake out the weak hands, and now the path to the upside is all clear!
ReplyDeleteGDXJ - Interesting how as the 50SMA is moving down through the 200SMA how often this event results in a positive response.
DeletePAL - Another 6% day
ReplyDeleteFB - The dog ate Zuck's homework?
ReplyDeleteEPU - Check out the bull flag that played on this puppy.......
ReplyDeleteIt's moves like this that make me reluctant to sell anything, and instead question the motives of shady characters spouting obvious BS, such as SHILLing.
DeleteCC - thanks for the breakdown on INFI, which was up 5.71% today. I just signed up for Dave's introductory offer although i'll probably stay with it for awhile.
ReplyDeleteI bot a 1/4 position in NIHD at $6.22 after reading Jesse's twitter and looking at the report he did last week. I have another buy order in at $5.40.
VG - This one's looking like it wants to break up through resistance?
ReplyDeleteMIL - Still trading below book
ReplyDelete