But if you try, sometimes you get what you need.
RYPMX closed up +0.54% at 61.32, but that's only 3 cents higher than my purchase
price last Thursday (in this case, I bought on strength, not on weakness- the
bet was on further strength). YTD +0.93% (which includes gains from trading
small positions in NGas earlier in the month). If I'd held the UGAZ position,
it would be up +40%! But it could just as easily be -40%. I don't disdain
fractional percentage gains, and I don't mind lagging the broader indexes for
extended periods of time.
David- I didn't get the performance I expected from the miners today. That puts me back on the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteWhat's Jesse's Twitter address?
ReplyDelete@InsiderBuySS
DeleteRAS...Bam!
ReplyDeleteLMNX - 08:30AM Luminex Receives FDA Clearance for First Comprehensive Gastrointestinal Pathogen Infectious Disease Diagnostic in the United States PR Newswire
ReplyDeleteNSPH - This is maybe not so good news for NSPH?
DeleteI saw that earlier and it looks like it was priced in much the same way the C. Diff was for NSPH. Couldn't find any interesting analysts remarks about it.
DeleteIt may also be this particular capability is very minor in the scheme of things.
DeleteARNA - Gaining steam as well.
ReplyDeleteMore military soldiers have died of suicide in the last 12 months than from enemy attack.
ReplyDeleteYen - Brandt has an interesting analysis to share.
ReplyDeleteI really don't pay much attention to the overall markets, but I do look for cheap stocks to buy and it does seem to be getting harder to find really good bargains. You can still find lots of good ones, but not the great deals we seemed to have for a lot of last year. And I've been looking hard at small-caps, micro-caps, European stocks (haven't gone to Japan yet), etc.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure, but perhaps this means we are setting up for a major pullback, which would make sense as a lot of charts are quite extended.
Or perhaps it means we have shifted to a different phase in the market where people are more comfortable owning stocks and we no longer get the big panic sell-offs and get smaller pullbacks to buy. This would make sense and still be very playable to make good returns.
I'm pretty sure we haven't reached the phase, like in 2007, where you really have to lower your standards to find stocks to buy and, which in hindsight, was a dumb thing to do.
Anyone else seeing the same thing?
I am seeing the miners (GDX, GDXJ) just starting to lift off a 30-year low in relative valuation to gold...
DeleteAgree that miners, especially Gold miners, are the exception here. They are very cheap and I would buy them except that I don't trust the price of gold. We never got the correction in gold like we did in other commodities and I think it is still coming. At least Platinum got back above the gold price today which is getting things on the right track.
DeleteBB- Looking at it another way, if the US is REALLY starting to turn on housing, the $'s involved there and the emotional charge people would get would align with your second guess. Having said that, I have to admit I'm starting to see some pretty strong signs that is happening at least around here...So we must be topping!
DeleteHere's one that seems really cheap. You probably haven't heard of it. AAPL. Seriously, if one of us had dug up like that and it was a tire Co. no one heard of, we'd be buying hand over fist.
DeleteBut I have a Note II and can see the future.
Kinda interesting...
ReplyDeleteLuminex accomplished the takeover of U.S.-based diagnostic testing company, GenturaDx on July 11, 2012. The GenturaDx deal is in line with Luminex’s strategy of pursuing acquisitions to drive growth. Its technology when combined with Luminex’s MultiCode chemistry will enable the company to develop user-friendly advanced products for its customers.
Luminex possesses an extensive product portfolio and a strong pipeline of novel assays, which are expected to support growth going ahead. The company is awaiting Food and Drug Administration (:FDA) approval for its GPP and NeoPlex4 assays to drive future growth. The company may benefit from its latest acquisitions if it maintains integration synergies.
However, Luminex operates in a highly competitive life sciences industry. The company competes with Affymetrix (AFFX), Life Technologies Corporation (LIFE) and Sequenom (SQNM), among others. Moreover, sluggish growth in its core markets as well as the ongoing European austerity measures are challenges faced by Luminex. We are currently Neutral on the stock, which carries a short-term Zacks #3 Rank (Hold).
I'd add CPHD and GNMK as competitors. And to a lesser degree, QDEL.
DeleteNY Manufacturing report showed lack of improvement.
ReplyDeleteWe just retraced all of the last pullback. Anyone that bought at the last high is now whole and anyone that bought the last down leg is whole or slightly up. It's human nature to take some risk off at break even or better. This is why it's so hard to mount a rally on top of a high level V shaped recovery.
ReplyDeleteThere are some stocks still at low levels that could trade counter to the indices. There are plenty of high fliers that are rolling over. The S&P has done nothing for three days but it hasn't given up too much. It's not the end of the world, it closed pretty good today after giving some up earlier. BUT it isn't the time to get all crazy about putting on more risk. I think we're seeing some selling into rallies. I know I have been selling some to reduce risk. I'm not too keen on giving up any of the last two weeks of gains.
I'm up 6% so far and I intend to build on that this year. I'll be damned if I'm going to give up much of that. I'll bet I'm not alone.
Makes perfect sense, best case we're looking at the formation of an handle of sorts where those who were trapped at the last high are interested sellers?
DeleteThat's what I think. We either consolidate the move up in a handle and move higher or we consolidate sideways or we roll over and get a pullback/correction.
DeleteKind of hard to do much with it until it decides.
We can play the base builders from low levels as they will tend to be the next to rally.
Jesse's list is a good one. The dollar/yen may be cooperating more.
AGCO - Not far from 52wk high.
ReplyDeleteCNH - Same for this one.
Here's the latest thought I was able to find from Jesse:
ReplyDeletehttp://insiderbuysuperstocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/THE-MAGIC-LINE-OF-2013.pdf
If AUMN would not have been crashing in October, I would have definitely picked up some SORL, after it made that perfect flat bottom...
ReplyDeleteSORL nearly doubled....
DeleteCSTR - Looks like we've got an entry on this one, best I can do in a pinch.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Hit my $3.05 stop on the shares I bought at $2.61
ReplyDeleteOrder Type Stop Limit
DeleteStop Price $3.05
Limit Price $3.04
So why did it execute at, $3.06, $3.07, $3.10 ?
I don't even see a trade @ 3.07???
DeleteLow of day was $3.06, according to the price quote from my broker, I'm not sure if that's a whole number, coulda been $3.055 maybe but not $3.05
DeleteI think they fucked up somehow, I'm hoping NSPH rallies to $10 I'll call them and ask WTF!?!?!?!?
Executed right at open, 09:30am
DeleteI'd be looking at PTM if it reverses out of this little knockout it's got going today.
ReplyDeleteWas wondering when/if the media would begin hyping the SA AMPLAT mine strikes. Probably platinum trading past gold gives market a warm-fuzzy feeling somehow, eh?
DeleteI read where the forecast for US CO2 emissions is flat for the next decade(or so) due to slow/no economic growth. Read elsewhere emissions were down due to switch to NG, not sure which of these is truth. Also read an article about how offshore loading of NG ships requires removal of CO2 in order to condense into liquid. Wonder what they're doing with that waste CO2, venting it to atmosphere is likely?
Still holding SORL from last year when David brought up - business appears to be going well and I think it gets up to $8 over the next couple of years.
ReplyDeleteRe AGO< there was a big option trade yesterday with over 200,000 shares or 20% of the day's volume - could be why it had the big swing.
"option trade yesterday with over 200,000 shares"
DeleteGood catch, thanks. Lacking detail (What's new?), not sure how that smashes price. The gap up did close so somehow someone got in who wanted in is what I'm thinking.
They're probably gone now, along with someone's money, the bastards. Nothing to see, not rigged, move along.
SORL - I hate you, LOL!
DeleteI know it's a chain, but have any of your guys eaten at El Pollo Loco?
ReplyDeleteMany years ago, quick lunch break nearby, no complaints.
DeleteQuite a few times. Pretty good depending on location. It's really popular.
DeleteThey capitalized on the 'Baja Chicken' craze.
I eat there every once in a long while. i like one of their burritos and their sides of corn. can't be healthy. i don't think they're popular or not popular...just right in the middle.
DeleteCool. Thanks. The menu looked good.
DeleteTry it, I know you're picky so I'm interested in your assessment. I don't go to the city much anymore seems like, last time I started my car the battery was dead from sitting over a month or maybe two.
DeleteLoad up the chest freezer every couple months.
BTW, they're talking here about eliminating gasoline taxes and increasing sales tax to make up the difference..... Of course!
And the Black-eyed Pea restaurant isn't bad either.
DeleteI meant Black-eyed Bean, instead.
DeleteBB - you mentioned its harder to find good stocks. i think it depends on what you're looking for. i see a lot of cyclical stocks that are at cycle lows like coals, steels, tech not named Apple. i see lots of brazilian and japanese stocks beaten down. i don't think the play is US stocks (as a whole) anymore. i think lots of them have run their course. i do like VG though. very cheap based on cash flow and they have completely turned around their balance sheet. should go higher.
ReplyDeleteDRI seems kinda beat-up, maybe if Mark starts treating the crew to lunch this can reverse to the upside?
DeleteI smell a write-off coming, for someone.
I am also seeing the best opportunities in cyclicals and tech. I guess Brazil really is cyclicals as well and I'm really not sure about Japan.
DeleteI am concerned about what is going on in the commodities markets - I have quite a lot of energy stocks, but am concerned about what is happening to supply/remand fundamentals with shale oil and am hesitant to add. A lot of the metals projects which were started in the last decade are starting to ramp up, so the metals could be hurt as well.
Tech does look interesting. The thing I always find hard about tech is that it is overanalyzed. You still have way too many analysts relative to market cap, so it just seems like overly tough competition.
But I will take another look through these and see what I can find.
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Sony to Neutral. F*ck.
ReplyDeleteTell us about their downgrades too, we're looking for long entries!!!!!
DeleteSNE - So then, $11.44 is GS cycle top on this one, downside target $9.6ish or so?
ReplyDeletewho knows but it makes me weary.
Deletehere are the sells:
http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=goldman+sachs+downgrades+to+sell&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#q=goldman+sachs+downgrades+to+sell&hl=en&client=safari&tbo=d&rls=en&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ei=4tb2UJDGIoSKiAKC5IHQDw&ved=0CA0Q_AUoAA&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&bvm=bv.41018144,d.cGE&fp=15605a87cf226472&biw=1617&bih=677
Yeah, duh, google it!
DeleteARI - BACML: "Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance: Investor meetings support bullish thesis"
ReplyDeleteLooking at this chart you wouldn't believe commercial real estate is in the dumpster but you might notice daily RSI(7) was recently over 80 and weekly RSI(7) is over 70.
DeleteSGG - I bet the media isn't hyping sugar this month, are they?
ReplyDeleteDD - Just a few days away from earnings, will this event complete the island reversal?
ReplyDeleteSteel - Inventories are up, eh? Just yesterday I was hearing about producers were contemplating raising prices...... hmmm, this all seems like a bad dream sometimes.
ReplyDeleteSteel - "The December U.S. steel distributor inventory-to-shipment (I/S) ratio rose to 3.1x from 2.6x in November, slightly below the average 3.2x historical ratio for the month, according to the MSCI."
ReplyDeleteLong TZA at $11.999.
ReplyDeleteEuro - I wouldn't be surprised if German manufacturing forecasts don't take some kinda hit with the recent euro strength, these currency wars might wind up being the equivalent of unproductive rocking back and forth spinning your wheels in the mud.
ReplyDeleteIsn't that their game, great for insider banks maybe while excluding the rest of us from focusing on something productive?
Such a racket.......
GGB - Came off quite a bit complete with H&S which could get ugly, could present a decent entry coming for those inclined? Probably not done quite yet......?
ReplyDeleteI had an entry in mind but man, can't recall what it was..... Maybe $8.50ish?
Ah, still have an standing order a few months old at $7.78
DeleteToo funny, market loves a strengthened euro but doesn't love the impact to German exports....
ReplyDeleteWhat a buncha crapola.....
JJC under $45.68 supports the bear thesis.
1468 support hanging in there, does it take a dip or not?
ReplyDeleteBeige book out 2 pm eastern....
ReplyDeleteThat is the news/excuse the market is waiting on.
Basically, I'm happy to be out of the miners. The failure to pop earlier in the week means increased odds of more bashing by traders.
ReplyDeleteSIL is laughing in my face -- with SLV going up a 3rd day in a row and is trading at a 1-month high, SIL is down to a 5-day low and is trading at a 3-month low. What's up with that???
ReplyDeleteNIHD is picking up 50 dma and .50 fib seemed to hold with some undercut. I may add but I generally do not average down.
ReplyDeletethat's simple 50 dma the exponential price is below
DeleteA disturbing post from Bruce Krasing:
ReplyDeletehttp://brucekrasting.com/burning-trees/
I have just visited the Dominican Republic in December...
I picked up a little more TZA at $11.93. Preparing for a selloff.
ReplyDeleteYep, chainsaws and related accessories have gained popularity in Europe. Stihl and Husqvarna are among the popular, strong interest in repair of older cast magnesium models going back to the 70's as well. Happen to have have 12 Poulans now in my collection from the era, all magnesium alloy. LOL
DeleteHusqvarna was spun off by Electrolux in 2006, they own the Poulan and Jonsered brand names.
AUMN - David, FWIW - AUMN Jan 19th max pain was $5 last I checked.
ReplyDelete13 posts at CC.
ReplyDeleteA slow lingering death.
Maybe b/c as BC's pumping miners he's actually selling them?
DeleteI mean, as you're writing puts to reduce your basis price, you're in effect feeding the bears, right?
DeleteI sold all of my longs today...sold SNE at $11.30 down to $11.22. Sold my DMND at $13.94 to $14. Sold my remaining VG at $2.51. I now have TZA and cash. Prepped for a selloff. Bring it on.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is we gap lower tomorrow or at some point this week. how big of a gap and if there is any follow through will be the key.
Deleteadded to TZA before close at 11.97. average is 11.96. here's to a selloff.
DeleteYour probably right, the only thing I wonder about is the room the BB's have at the top. GL!!!
DeleteNLS another kick ass quarter. watch...that stock is going to retrace its entire move down over the next few years. $25 by then? why the eff not? By my calcs they can do $0.50 EPS next year. that alone makes it worth $10.
ReplyDeleteSaw that. Pretty freaking impressive.
Deleteit's gonna pull a PIR. up 50 fold from bottom by the time it's over?
DeleteNonsense, there's only one wicker rocket bro.
DeleteYeah, and that $2.20's target slipped right through our fingers too.
DeleteOn that NSPH Sell Stop Limit that executed at open, the service rep said he couldn't see any reason for the execution but could have it investigated by the floor if I wanted.
ReplyDeleteI told him it wasn't necessary although I made the point I could've canceled the trade and gotten a better price for all of the shares if the stop limit hadn't(falsely) triggered at the open.
Hell, I'd want to know!
DeleteDuring tomorrow's excitement, I'm gonna try picking up those NSPH shares that were "stolen" from me today, assuming the gap up from $2.90 gets closed.
ReplyDelete