Sure, go ahead. I'll visit you at the burn ward.
Here's my take. BB hasn't been able to warm to the gold trade, and with good reason. tof has closed all longs and expects the indexes to sell off.
I think they're right. Miners weren't able to rally. I think they sell off hard, and will lead the broader markets down.
Take a look at the 2-year chart for GDXJ. That's the underlying reason for the 14 comments.
ReplyDeleteDavid- It occurred to me this morning that you could have made a lateral move into UGAZ 5 days ago and erased your losses in the blink of an eye. There are thousands of possible trades out there. Do you have to stick with AUMN?
ReplyDeleteYes. :) It is the only SURE bet I see over a 1-year time horizon. The time for it to move is NOW. The first gap up might happen any day now, when they announce their production results for 4Q.
Delete'Sure bet?'
DeleteI remember in the past there were a few instances where the miners were just not rallying despite the rising silver/gold price. I think all of those instances ended with an eventual pullback in gold/silver, during which the miners have sold off hard.
ReplyDeleteThat seems illogical to me -- the miners are a *derivative* product, so how can they guess that gold/silver will sell off soon, rather than start a new leg up? But somehow, the miners were always right...
Did you say 'illogical?' You know better.
DeleteIt is illogical, but it seems to be the case...
DeleteThe only sure bet is that markets are by nature irrational and illogical, and love to trash sure bets.
DeleteRead Geoff's opening commentary today again, carefully. My bet is miners break to the downside. Why? Because trading the negative sentiment in gold here is 'too easy.' The real move has to be one that really ----s with traders. And that's a down move against all hope (as well as against all 'contrarian' expectations).
DeleteLook, I'm not a 'feel good' blogger. I really think odds are high that you and our old buds over at the other blog are about to find out what a real downdraft feels like. There are examples in my trading past when I stubbornly held on to a losing position, 'certain' that vindication lay around the corner. Shorting DELL in the nineties, for one. It's hard to let go. But once you do, you're free to make money.
Delete"our old buds over at the other blog"
DeleteOuch, it was just Nov. some were buying the MUX pullback at $3.90, near this week's recent high. I recall thinking the formation looked like a bear flag.
UGAZ/BOIL/UNG - These getting hit are a sure sign the broad rally is losing steam, then the rush back into these NG ETF's is the clincher?
ReplyDeleteCould just be my imagination at work but seems like this is a phenomenon that has repeated itself several times now.
I'm not ready to get bearish yet though, I think we move higher soon but must first work off some enthusiasm.
NLS - If this one's going to $10 or maybe even $25, let's just buy it and trade around a core position!
PCP is testing the 50SMA and their last earnings were really quite upbeat IMO.
ReplyDeleteI do see what looks like an H&S suggesting a target of ~$175 but it's hard for me to accept the possibility this pattern will fruit.
Is the gulf oil and gas infrastructure about to receive renewed investment interest?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/huntingtoningalls-avondale-idUSL1E9CADPC20130110?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43
Is the gulf region oil and gas infrastructure on the verge of receiving renewed investment interest?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/huntingtoningalls-avondale-idUSL1E9CADPC20130110?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43
Stihl Chainsaws April/2012: Sales were going gangbusters. "Only ten percent of revenues were achieved in Stihl's home market, Germany, with sales skyrocketing in eastern Europe and emerging nations in Asia and Latin America.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dw.de/largest-chainsaw-maker-increases-its-cut-of-the-market/a-15905367
Mitsubishi invests in German Green Energy Grid:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dw.de/german-population-rises-thanks-to-migrants/a-16525083
David,
ReplyDeleteThe thing about the markets are that there really are no sure things. It's all about playing the probability and odds and what you've essentially done is taken all of your money and bet it on the Green 0 for 1 spin of the wheel. I hope it works out for you, but if you keep playing that game, you almost certainly will end up with a loss. Committing to stocks you really believe in and understand is good, but you have to know that then unexpected can happen and you need to spread your bets.
BB, the "unexpected", from my point of view, has been happening to AUMN for a year now and I have survived. So while I plan for what I expect, I make sure to have backup plans for the "unexpected."
DeleteIn fact, the "unexpected" has been happening to the whole mining sector since October 2011, when S&P put in a clear bottom and rallied hard, but the miners did not follow.
DeleteRIMM at $40 bucks... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Mr9OsVg2xOk#
ReplyDeletei think i mentioned this before but there is no reason why it can't go to $30 even if it ends up at $0. that would be a "normal" retracement in a bearish downtrend. in the past 23 years the Nikkei has had several big rallies in the span of a huge bearish downtrend. this is no different in my opinion.
Deletethe bigger question, though, is why are you getting your news from youtube?
DeleteLink from Twitz, and I'm lazy???
DeleteBut seriously, folks -- I don't understand what is going on. Has the whole January effect been reduced to the gap up open on January 2nd, which has been steadily getting sold since then? What about $85B per month that the Fed is printing since the New Year -- where is that money going??? Why aren't the miners rallying yet? It is about time!
ReplyDelete"UGAZ/BOIL/UNG - These getting hit are a sure sign the broad rally is losing steam, then the rush back into these NG ETF's is the clincher?"
ReplyDeleteCP - honestly this is one of the things I considered when i decided to get out of longs and go short. sounds too easy to just consider it the contrarian trade but it's been an accurate tell.
Folks, you also have to consider the $USD chart when making your decisions:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1
Would you say that $USD has not been able to rally strongly after the drop on January 2nd, and thus it should be abandoned? Or would you say that the support at $79.40 has clearly held, and now the only way is up?
Holly Crap!! I just thought to myself what is Jesse thinking and viola!! and email arrives a few minutes ago.
ReplyDeleteBA- We have problems with lithium-ion batteries catching fire all the time. I kid you not. They aren't allowed to charge inside a home. I've had 3 or 4 melt.
ReplyDeleteThis is precisely why I refuse to buy AAPL stock, send your shares to my account and I will dispose of them properly for you.
DeleteCan you FEEL it?
ReplyDeleteThe charts scream it. The retrace. The loss of momentum. The bullishness.
Jesse is right. I think we get that last push higher to trick the last few hitchhikers onto the train.
I'm a seller into any strength.
Interestingly....Twiggs:
http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/01/17/stocks-the-year-ahead/
Gold selling off $8.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Holy shit am I glad I woke up early this morning. I couldn't sleep much last night because I saw SNE was up 5% in Nikkei. I sold my TZA at $11.92. Now I have to make amends with the fact that I'm out of SNE and its gapping higher above short term resistance. Very amateur move by yours truly. What to do, what to do.
ReplyDeleteGo back to bed? :)
DeletePlace a bid at yesterday's high and hope the gap closes?
DeleteDrink?
DeleteSee how much more helpful I am than CP?
DeleteBetter yet, buy NLS?
Deletehaha! i did have 1300 shs remaining of SNE that I just sold at $11.62...that's about all i got to hang my hat on now.
DeleteBuy NLS - This option is miles better than the two lame ideas Mark just suggested.
DeleteHey! Only my family can talk to me like that!
DeleteMaybe it is just me, but it sure seems like a lot of people calling for a short term top these days. A lot of this is based on sentiment and things like Rydex and IIAA reports being at the bullish high end typically seen before a correction.
ReplyDeleteSeems almost like it is becoming the consensus view which means it is less likely to happen. My guess now is we bounce for a few weeks and people start getting less concerned and then we fall.
I think we see 1500 before we fall, and may just hold that level depending on how well things go.
DeleteI also think the economic recovery remains a work in progress.
Beginning to worry about the potential for colonialism backlash though, this is commodities positive. Energy independence for north america is important and seems to be moving in the right direction however I don't see Europe reaching this plateau.
BACML - "Used tractor market sizzling."
ReplyDeleteMy play for used is TITN, but used leads to new and new is CNH and AGCO
DeleteMITK share holder meeting. On the agenda, to increase share limit for 40M to 60M. What, they think thier the Gov. or something?
ReplyDeletelike an idiot perma bear i went long TZA again at $11.76
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping the market from sinking! ;)
DeleteCP- There's your gap close. Did you catch it?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - reloaded trading shares @ $2.90, maybe I'll off load them if we climb back to $3.10
ReplyDeleteSell limit $3.14, I'm feeling uber-bullish.
DeleteMy hope is that the convertible bond on SNE, which is about 15% dilutive, causes continued pressure overhead and scares some investors away. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteWhy wouldn't it already be priced in?
DeleteAside: Mark likes fat chicks, I like Rosie robot.
Chill, everyone. It's not good for the blog image to freak out.
ReplyDeleteI guarantee we're going down soon.
ReplyDeleteYou think the AA gap up might close?
DeletePlatinum and palladium haven't rallied like this in a great while, some think palladium's headed for $1000
DeleteAnd they made this forecast at the recent lows of last year.
DeleteAUMN - I was gonna say, I doubt there'll be a chance soon to pick up AUMN as low as $4.40 like I've been watching for, more like $4.50ish
ReplyDeleteI can no longer play PM's with confidence, it's too difficult to build a cushion and I miss timed the $700 opportunity so unless they absolutely crash, like TOF says there's just no way of placing value on PM's especially gold, and the big boys call those shots. Since I doubt the big boys are willing to give up their paper money monopoly in my lifetime, gold has it's upside limitations.
aren't willing
DeleteI still feel really good about the idea that we move back to miners being some of the biggest dividend payors like in the 1950's. Until then (or a crash in the gold price), I think you have to be really careful.
DeleteHow can miners become big dividend payers, aside from it having happened in the 20's? Appears like to me they're struggling to maintain earnings.
DeleteYeah, some could and likely will do well, like AUMN and/or PAL/GMO (throw Australia in there until the aborigines rebel if that's possible) but as a whole....... eh!
Oh, you're talking about the 50's when natural resources were so scarce people were recycling everything they could get their hands on.
DeleteYeah, maybe sometime in our lifetime but I'd probably become insolvent while waiting.
Kass doing his short push like he often seems to do a couple of weeks before the market peak.
ReplyDeleteLater Gators!
ReplyDelete"Chill, everyone. It's not good for the blog image to freak out."
ReplyDeleteoh great now we have to uphold an image AND make profits?
I'm very surprised I've not been kicked off, obviously the bar is set low.
DeleteNot even reprimanded, see how low the standard of acceptance has been set? It's borderline criminal.
Delete1476 - We blew right through this resistance level, no doubt we'll have to retest it if we haven't already...
ReplyDeleteExceeding 1485 would demoralize the bears completely, causing them all to throw up involuntarily.
Deletevia cashin
ReplyDeleteFabled market technician, Walter Murphy, took a trip down memory lane. The trip
was not to a pleasant meadow in Spring. Here's what the master recalled:
In that regard, this month is the 40th anniversary of a significant top. In late 1972 the DJIA closed above 1000
for the first time and in January 1973 the index broke out to an all-time closing high (1052). The S&P also closed
at an all-time high (above 120). All appeared right with the world as attested to by the fact that the Investors
Intelligence survey recorded only 12.9% bears. (It is worth noting that 1973 was also the first year of a new
presidential term.) The market then began a correction and the DJIA did not exceed those 1973 highs again until
1982. We are not saying that the same thing will happen this time. However, we continue to believe that this is
an Elliott Wave bear market rally and that the downside risk from current levels significantly outweighs the
upside potential. So, once this four-year rally runs its course, it could be some time before these levels are seen
again.
I was going to post a chart but mine only goes back to 1982, monthly chart.
DeleteBTW, I'm chillin fricken 59 degrees here this morning.
DeleteXCO perkin up
Rub a couple sticks together. ;)
DeleteEerie anniversary news, sorta gives me the shivers....
Sold a couple of stocks this morning - they were getting close to sell targets and I do want to have some more cash if we do get a pullback. If not, I'd still rather put this money into different stocks. Will probably wait a few weeks before deploying unless something really compelling comes along.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Offed the trading shares @ $2.97 'cause somethin' is better than nothin' and buyers are refraining.
ReplyDeleteGonna try picking them back up lower.
i'm only doing this because it's therapeutic.
ReplyDeletei literally spent the past hour talking myself through my thought processes with regards to TZA and SNE. i was very close to calling it quits on the TZA trade, throwing in the towel on trading for a bit and saying f*ck it, it's been a really good run since last summer and why bother with the headache. i spent a shitload of time reading up on SNE, looked at the charts, analyzed the relationship between the Yen, Nikkei, and SNE and came away with the conclusion that it's a no brainer long. I got spooked because the stock was up 2% yesterday on a Goldman upgrade, which is usually the kiss of death, and on a day when it was DOWN 2% on the nikkei. at the same time i was seeing all kinds of warning bells going off on the markets in general. i got emotional. i'm human. it f*cking happens. in the same vein, though, i came away with the conclusion that to just walk away and ignore everything that i was seeing because the trades went against me for a day would also be an emotional move. so just to make sure i spent a good deal of time scanning through charts in an effort to see something different than what i was seeing yesterday and last week: that is, that the market appears to be heading toward at least an intermediate top. i wish we could post charts here but anyway my conclusion is still the same. so for now i will stick with an underwater TZA position, hope for a pullback in SNE (maybe on the back of continued selling pressure from the convertible bond?) and the market in general and walk away from the computer for an hour.
no one ever said this sh*t was easy.
Hey, join the club. There will be another train.
DeleteTHIS place in the market and charts is fricking HARD. Your damned if you do, and damned if you don't.
One thing you may want to look at as a buy and not look at for a while is a VIX etf.
(VXX/XVZ/TVIX/VIIX/etc) Taker a look at that LT chart. I think your TZA may work for you.
I'm finding the same thing with the fundies - not much super cheap, but not much super expensive either. Markets up 10% in last 2 months - that's a lot. I think everyone would feel more comfortable buying a pullback here.
DeleteGDX is flat on a day when SLV and GLD are up strongly, so the miners are STILL not rallying. Are they coiling for a powerful move up, when the skeptics throw in the towel, or are they saying that the risk is slowly seeping out of the market?
ReplyDeleteAUMN is flat so far today -- I think traders are just in a stand-by mode waiting for their 4Q production results. In fact, the volatility in AUMN has been dying down since mid-December, and it has almost disappeared by now. Is it a classic bull flag on a 6-month chart?
ReplyDeleteLooks like potential buyers are waiting for results, to me.
DeleteBAC - Remind me to buy this one at $7 and keep averaging down till $5 on this next cycle.
ReplyDeleteGeoff pointed out this morning that S&P has almost completed a bearish rising wedge pattern, which usually breaks to the downside. On the other hand, the 6-month chart of GDXJ shows that it has almost completed a bullish declining wedge pattern, which should break to the upside. So which one is it going to be??? Can GDX win against S&P and go up while S&P is crashing?
ReplyDeleteExcept this is opposite bizzarro dimension we occupy, you want normal then find a way to cross into the parallel dimension.
DeleteBears beginning to leak blood, their ears popping eyes bulging like they just landed on Mars and forgot their space suits... Will they provide the extra momentum necessary to close this puppy over 1485?
ReplyDeleteI hear stuff like retail is creating this leg up, dunno where it's comin' from myself but I bet anyone claiming anything is just guessing and they should be disclosing that.
my eyes are bulging!
Deleteseriously, i can come up with a list of charts and fundamental reasons for the market to pull back. it will matter when traders care.
We've arrived too quickly, cover your ears as we reach escape velocity lest there be a loud bang!
Deletewhat's the significance of 1485?
DeleteSounds like Sony CEO is making promises, does he have a record of disappointment or has something actually changed besides the intervention attempt to reverse the YEN?
Delete1485 is resistance. 1505, 1496, 1485, 1476, 1472, 1468, 1461, 1457, 1444, 1433, 1416 and 1403 are all "key support/resistance levels".
Delete1496 is S&P gap fill, maybe this is our short term target?
ReplyDeletejust checked out objectivetrader he's showing 1488-91. i was initially thinking 1,520 but i think that comes after a pullback first. i was also thinking 1,440ish like he is. 1,520 just because the market has been lurching 50 points higher on each new high for almost 2 years now.
Deleteso if i had to draw it:
Delete1,440 > 1,520
1,520 > 1,370
1,370 > new all time highs
i think this is similar to what OT has except i think his pullback target was 1,300 (not sure if it has changed).
added TZA 11.62.
Delete1440ish sounds reasonable, we can't simply fill the gap without creating at least a few or a dozen more panic attacks.
Deleteoh great now we have to uphold an image AND make profits?
ReplyDeleteJust don't let them see you sweat.
All that money is flowing back into the market at the worst possible time.
ReplyDeleteI like the pullback-> spike back up to 1520-> then the real pullback scenario.
ReplyDeleteStraight up for a decade solid, just like gold and bonds.
DeleteNSPH - What a struggle this thing's been, it's a difficult, tiring task coaching this thing higher.
ReplyDelete$2.963 is my current basis, so I've got to keep working on this stupid thing that refuses to cooperate.
DeleteDrawing a straight line intersecting the lows from May, June and Nov., it looks like the next support level is ~$2.75, maybe I should target this area for reloading the trading shares?
Delete3 successive morning spikes down for SLV to the same level, which all got bought, each one finishing higher than the previous one. Is it showing buying pressure of what???
ReplyDeleteWhat if all skeptics out there waiting for a pullback throw in the towel and start piling into the miners -- they will just zoom! Shortly after that, of course, they will crash, since no more buyers will remain.
I've seen this scenario before, a few years ago, when everyone was waiting for a market pullback and I even put on some shorts, but instead we got a massive spike up in the miners over the course of several days. And only when I decided to take off my shorts and buy into the miners (getting afraid that they were leaving behind me for good) did the whole market (including the miners) had a vicious pullback...
"Is it showing buying pressure or what???" -> "There's no buying pressure here."
DeleteThere, I fixed it for you.
TZA 11.61...
ReplyDeleteif i had to pick the "reasons" or timing of the pullbacks / rallies:
ReplyDelete(1) inauguration > next week...for whatever reason whenever Obama speaks we tank. > 1,445-50
(2) debt ceiling deadline gets resolves > we rally to 1,525, stall for a week or two, then drop to 1,370 and put in yet another higher low.
Some of the best, most logical reasoning I've heard all day.
DeleteI hate logical. It's right but it never happens that way.
DeleteRyan hinted at a ST deal on the debt limit today.
Can't they just find a coke can and play with that for awhile?
All right, I blinked. Sold another 30K shares at 2.90-2.93. +16%. I didn't want to hold that much through earnings and a good case can be made the Co. will indeed need to issue shares...
ReplyDelete10 minutes later...F it. All out +20% on remaining shares. I need to step away from this position.
I'm still wondering what's so compelling about it from a fundamental perspective, I've heard it's got promise but I also heard similar things about MLNX and MLNX definitely has pump and dump swamp gas cloud all over it.
Deletegood job! your money's working while you're working...
DeleteINTC up nicely. let's see what they say on the call. if it's like CSCO was for several years...it pops then reverses hard.
ReplyDeletethat was quick.
Deleteany other good reactions to reports than GS? haven't really been following.
DeleteRegional banks did well today. COF not so much AH's.
DeleteINTC - "Revenue Falls for a Second Straight Quarter"
Delete$20 back test coming?
AMD - 50% off the bottom
ReplyDeleteMark- Was that a new position in NSPH you just closed out, or the original position you opened a few weeks ago?
ReplyDeleteDMND - Some impressive Inst owner increase on this one, is it really true?
ReplyDeleteCheck out the Nikkei.
ReplyDelete2nd- That was an old position. Basis was 2.45.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think I'm gonna try getting out flat and go the Fleetwood Mac route, just not feelin' the love.
DeleteAMAT, etc. - Off hand without knowing intimate details of INTC's capital spending plan, it SHOULD be positive for AMAT, etc. Perhaps the cat's already out of the bag?
ReplyDeleteHa, looks like money was piling into SMH today.
ReplyDeleteBoing! Not only did another piece pop off, it caught fire as well.
ReplyDeleteSold out of a lot of stuff today, DSX, HERO, IRE, MSFT, RNF, RTK, SNE
ReplyDeleteSold all 2500 of my AMBS, probably my biggest gainer ever for the smallest amount of bucks.
Sold a partial position in PAM, and thats just because I put in a limit order and it's thinly traded.
ALso sold a partial position of my beloved EPM, that was a teary moment. Maybe I can get it back closer to $8.00.
Of the small stuff, I didn't sell EGHT, USAT, NOAH, CAMT, which when added together is pretty small part of the account.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/sony-to-sell-u-s-headquarters-to-chetrit-group-for-1-1-billion.html
ReplyDeletedude the stock is up huge in Japan. Gonna be another big day tomorrow. This one hurts bad.
DeleteAUMN Production Update:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/golden-minerals-announces-fourth-quarter-221500259.html
Crap. Everything that can potentially go wrong in the mining business actually goes wrong with that company. Why do I have such a bad luck???
DeleteLet's see what impact such news will have tomorrow...
Deletedudes - i think there is at least a decent chance we have put in a major top in the markets. i'm going strictly off the charts i'm looking at. Look at the % of stocks above their 50 DMA and 200 DMA, look at the spike in new highs minus new lows. notice any similarity to the bottom in October 2011?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p16397043072
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17021854611
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA200R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49881322975
ObjectiveTrader wrote about this and suggested that his call for higher highs after a minor pullback to 1,440 or so might not come to fruition because of what looks like a mirror topping process to the bottoming process back in the fall of 2011.
I think there is a chance we could look back in a couple of months and see that this was a major top for a while. i don't really like to pay too much attention to the overall market but this move up along with the general sentiment has gotten my attention and tells me we should get the hell away from longs. Even BB is saying it's hard to find good stuff and he's super long term oriented in his investing. in the screens that i do looking for cheaper growth stocks i'm finding the choices to be pretty lower caliber companies.
look at the sentiment of traders: shorts like Tim Knight are looking at going long, bears are throwing in the towel, things are breaking out left and right, and people that are calling tops are only calling short term tops to be followed by higher highs. Margin debt is near all time highs.
Fundamentally, we can make the case for significant downside. I've only looked at a handful of earnings reports but most of them look weak. Look at the reports recently from COF, CMG, DRI, INTC, BAC, C. Those are big name companies that have all gotten hit pretty hard. Throw in the fact that taxes across the board are going higher and you can make a case for there being some pretty significant headwinds to growth.
Tech and the Dow didn't break out to new highs like the S&P did. In fact the Nasdaq is putting in what looks like a head and shoulders top that for the first time in a while I don't really see being mentioned at all.
Can we go higher? Absolutely. But I think there is significant risk in the markets right now.
Agreed. However, closed TZA pre-market @ 11.67. No overnight sell off, thus no take and no position right now.
Deletenew post
ReplyDeleteAGO - "•Assured Guaranty Cut by Moody’s on Muni Insurance Outlookat Bloomberg(Fri "
ReplyDelete