AAPL. BAC. SNE. If only we'd had sufficient faith. The market is comprised of otherwise rational minds acting irrationally under the influence of emotions.
No worries. Over time, we do our best to understand the beast and occasionally reap great gains.
AGO - Moody's Cuts Assurred
ReplyDeletehttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/bloomberg/SIG=13fhebqdr/*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/assured-guaranty-units-cut-by-moody-s-on-muni-insurance-outlook.html?cmpid=yhoo
SNE - It's breaking out, just do it?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI kept a tiny piece of SNE that I will sell at the open. Selling RE isn't exactly a sign of performance, but it is what it is. We need an orderly pullback but I'd be fooling myself if I didn't admit it looks like we see a substantial correction. BUT...the market will do what it wants.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of positive talk out there about real estate and rising interest rates. The Fed is now jawboning 'disruptions' from the level of stimulus, so you know at some point it's coming.
NSPH - Max Pain is $2.50, not sure if this explains the lack of love.
ReplyDeleteAGO - My basis is $13.81 I think, so no loss yet.
AGO MP is $14, and it's stronger even with moody's BS so I'm pretty happy or maybe I should say lucky.
DeleteMunis - I guess if rates rise, municipals will be forced to buy insurance to obtain lower rates. Especially if they're downgraded?
AUMN - Hanging in there, Max Pain is $5
ReplyDeleteAurico - Cuts production forecast.
Re AGO, glad Moody's finally made their decision and, while it's not the best, the stock reaction shows it was pretty expected. The good thing about AGO is even if they shut down the business and went into run-off, the stock is worth more than double and maybe triple depending on how the runoff went, so not worried. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock rise after this selloff as the uncertainty is now reduced.
DeleteRe AUMN, more miners than not go through these types of problems and it seems more common with the silver miners for some reason. The key will be if they can fix it soon - sometimes they take years like Copper Mountain in BC which have been working on a grate problem for 2 years now and it's still not 100%.
Judging by the stock reaction, it's also not a big surprise. But, mining is always a risky business and seems to have more than its fair share of bad surprises.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/u-s-mint-silver-coins-sell-out-with-fund-buying-at-5-year-high.html
ReplyDeleteGood time to sell into strength?
DeleteSNE - I'm not impressed this company has to sell NY assets in order to stay afloat, NY assets are at/near bottom? Or, maybe raising emergency cash has nothing to do with why they're selling?
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't really matter, does it? A run from 9.XX to 12.70 is all good.
DeleteI say 'Thanks for the fish'.
I try to keep the fundamentals on my side b/c it's often so difficult to know what's going on internally, often fundies don't seem to help much, I like insider buying as well.
DeleteAGCO was a good example of strong insider buying.
Canada's largest grocery chain (Loblaws - L in Toronto) is spinning out its real estate into a REIT and the stock went up 25%. The commentators up here are expecting more of the same as companies are not getting recognition for the value of their real estate in their stock and it is easy to sell high now (people love the steady cash flows).
DeleteLots of new REIT's, are they dumping assets/cause for caution?
DeleteChina beat on GDP
ReplyDelete1474 resistance test?
ReplyDeleteVXX @ 25.36...
ReplyDeleteMy problem is that I'm thinking too rationally here.
DeleteVXX is officially one of the most ----ed up ETFs out there, IMHO.
DeleteLook at the longterm chart. I think rational is probably good here.
DeleteYesterday in the chart show Dave was asked if buying the VXX here (or some reasonable facsimile) and just holding it was a good idea and he said 'absolutely'.
I think if you do that you have to just not look at it. It is certain we will see a rise in volatility and it will revert to the mean, but timing is the question.
Out of VXX @ 25.44 and ---- you very much.
DeleteI just saw CC's post. Obviously, my above comment was directed to VXX, and not to CC ;)
DeleteDMND - Washout over, or another leg down?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Expecting this one gets pushed down going into close, maybe I'll add if the price is right.
ReplyDeleteRemember earnings might be Feb. 11th. They haven't released the date yet. Since we know they will lose money, it will all be about the burn rate and that's always dangerous.
DeleteHaving said that, I was thinking yesterday how funny it was that I would have been BUYING at 2.90 instead of selling if I had sold all my shares at 3.24 instead of only 35K shares. It's all about risk.
DeleteGood point Mark, buying on weakness here not a smart move. Maybe I should dump it here(flat) and wait for a pre or post earnings smackdown.
Delete"It's all about risk."
DeleteWe need a risk metric for use as coefficient for timing trades.
AGO - The traders controlling this thing are slick dudes, just when you think it's found strength they hammer it and then at some point later bid it back up for what seems like no reason.
ReplyDeleteStill expecting a smackdown opportunity, these guys are just waiting for folks to finish buying here mistakenly thinking downside is done before torpedoing it.
CP, in the case of Loblaws, it was all about surfacing value for shareholders. REITs trade at 20 times earnings whereas retail is around 12 and little value was being given for their vast holdings (largest retail owner in Canada) and they kept 80% of the shares, so their shares popped 25% on the news.
ReplyDeleteI guess my question is if the ticker changed or just the business model. I guess you're telling me the ticker stayed the same and longs saw an instant 25% gain.
DeleteWe should be working to identify more of those, why couldn't they just increase dividends? Some people are making the case that conversion to REIT is dumping real estate.
I don't believe dumping real estate is ever a good idea if it's generating positive revenue.
Take a look at the chart for L.TO and pretty easy to see the day of the announcement!
DeleteI'm not doubting the event actually occurred, we can count on more of this type of event and should perhaps attempt to identify them in advance.
DeleteMeanwhile looking at the phenomenon from differing perspectives.
People love their dividends, I don't blame them.
AUMN $4.40, always seems to find support there.
ReplyDeletei see absolutely nothing wrong with SNE selling off assets. In fact I think it's shrewd. Might as well raise cash in a relatively frothy market.
ReplyDeleteThey will be staying in the building for three years, so it isn't a big deal. I think they are raising capital to use for better purposes, which is a good thing.
DeleteThe price is holding up pretty well here.
Bears are getting mighty ballsy, don't they know it's unwise to stand in front of a freight train?
ReplyDeleteAnalysts Defend Assured Guaranty After Downgrade
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11816945/1/analysts-defend-assured-guaranty-after-downgrade.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
I'm feeling more compelled to add on weakness, not far from moving up through the weekly 150SMA
DeleteGE - This one's also gonna keep going up from here in a longer time horizon, IMO.
ReplyDeleteYou know, traders don't agree on price for long.
ReplyDeleteWe were stuck for a few days at S&P 1470, then a little above and we're testing that level.
I think that 1470 is the line in the sand.
Either we get faked out or it goes sideways and builds from here.
Any way you look at it, if you get some weakness in something you like, a stop below 1470 is a good place.
Just sold between $1.85 and $1.90 60 contracts of January / April $2.50 calls on AUMN. Lightening up on my position, since nothing good will happen for this stock for the next year. By the end of the year, however, I will start getting bullish once again, since it will be time to price in the production increase they will have in 2014.
ReplyDeleteRosie: "As for the Fed, one can reasonably build a scenario where it will maintain ZIRP through to 2018 instead of mid-2015."
ReplyDeleteAlso, just sold 2 contracts of January 2014 calls at $7 (which I purchased in December at $5.70). If SLV keeps zooming up, then my SIL position should follow. But if all PM's put in a top here, then I will get stopped out of SIL but will cover a part of my loss on it using the gains I made today on SLV.
ReplyDeleteSold 30 more contracts of January $2.50 AUMN calls at $1.85.
ReplyDeleteNow I have some buying power left so as to reload AUMN once it drops below $4.
Hope you're right, I'm trying hard not to buy today's weakness.
DeleteTBT - January sorta looks like a bull flag formation, wouldn't you say?
ReplyDeleteMight even extrapolate that and say Oct through end of Dec formed a cup?
DeleteNSPH - 50SMA retest complete, gap closed, prop checked, clear for take-off on runway $4?
ReplyDeleteI can dream, can't I?
NLS - Beauty day.
ReplyDeleteSGG - Got a smidge of green on this one so far today folks, are our risk indicators beginning to flash yet?
ReplyDeleteConsidering South America is planted fence post to fence post, and lacking robust DD I'm a little hesitant on this one.
Sold 5K shares of AUMN at $4.27. There is no catalyst for it to rally in the near future. I am sure I'll be able to reload it under $4 on the very next sell-off in PMs.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Based on what I see currently, I guess anything under $14.34 is low risk entry.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHint: I'm not in SIM City, I'm in Solar City.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm having a cup of JVA, no SGG.
Cheers!
With GGN topping?
DeleteTrying that POS again, VXX @ 24.66...
ReplyDeleteNow at 24.45? That's what I get for flipping the bird earlier.
DeleteHoly crap.....
DeleteWell defined channel on that VXX.
DeleteWhat is that Nov/Dec formation, cup with broken handle?
DeleteThe spike down day was 12/31, a sign of the coming rally on 1/2.
DeleteIt's getting into silly territory now though.
What would it take for the vix to double or more?
Not a lot, and it happens in a day. How many would chase a spike up to 40?
I'd be watching the TLT too.
DeleteGood candidate for a stop-limit buy?
DeleteDBC - Ah, douch bag commodity ETF broke out of down trend line a couple sessions back.
ReplyDeleteDBB - A ways to go but is this one gonna test top of pennant?
DBB did lead S&P out of the trough this cycle.
WTF is going on with AUMN?
ReplyDeleteSee David's post from last night. Crap numbers in the report.
DeleteBut....another chance to get a bargain?
The bargain will be when it hits $3.50...
DeleteIt has to be at least an interim capitulation.
DeleteWere the numbers 20% worse?
DeleteI'm gonna wait, David's on top of this one IMO.
DeleteSo funny, Poncho's lying in front of the wood stove out like a light and dead to the world.
ReplyDeleteYou should see that tail begin wagging when he sees me loading it up with wood in the morning.
holy shit - VIX. i'm assuming this is because of OpEx, in part...just another in a long list of overbought indicators.
ReplyDeleteby the way, do any of you guys ever go to Jamba Juice? What's your opinion of it? I'm curious for investing and business reasons.
We used to go once or sometimes twice a week in Santa Clara, not sure how lucrative it is but the place seemed to have decent traffic.
Deleteit's a boring trade but the dollar looks like it's a buy on the monthly chart. it has gone through a pretty long bottoming process. first target looks like 90.
ReplyDeleteLet the POS go @ 24.37...
ReplyDeleteM-------------!
DeleteThese guys know EXACTLY when to ---- you over.
Deletewithin a week or so days the inverse etfs should be rocking. not a huge fan of the vix ones though.
DeleteIt's all good. I made it all back trading a position in AUMN from 4.13 to 4.18...
ReplyDeleteVXX now setting new lows for the day.
ReplyDeleteMonday should be interesting.
DeleteIs there an inverse VIX?
ReplyDeleteSVXY
DeleteYou know what I think it is? Too many people on one side of the boat.
Deletethere are quite a few similarities between this period and the March/April 2011 period. relatively large pullback and v shaped recovery at multi year highs, brief pullback then moonshot higher. VIX went up > 50% and down > 50% to new rally lows all within 6 weeks or so. 6 weeks later the S&P was 110 points lower.
ReplyDeletein hind sight selling SNE to buy TZA 2 days ago was a bad move.
ReplyDeleteclosing TZA at $11.92 for small loss yesterday pre market and making a lateral move to SNE at $11.65...now THAT was a good move! oh wait, that was just a dream.
Deleteinstead of closing at 11.92, then reopening at 11.7ish and adding to it at 11.6. i always say that it's best to wait for confirmation of a top or bottom. with shorting the market i almost always regret trying to pick the top, kick myself for ignoring my own rule, then close the trade and see a fall shortly thereafter. in hindsight, the reasons i think we're topping are more of a longer term picture of things technically, so realistically it's wise to wait longer than a day or two. this is where it's always smarter to just wait for the top to show itself. but the hard part is to identify an entry point thereafter.
DeleteI admit I bought a few hundred shares on the gap and held them until this mornings open.
DeleteIt was risky as hell but I didn't risk much and I didn't make all that much eiher, but it was better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. I sure wish I had held my larger position, that would have been way better, but I can't complain.
the hard part about identifying a top is the move off of the top always seems to happen VERY quickly. but this isn't necessarily true. i know the may 2010 period was impossible, but the july 2011, april 2012, and october 2012 tops were fairly easy to identify and gave you an opportunity to short AFTER the top was made. the process should really be no different than waiting for a bottom to occur and those always seem to be more identifiable, but they're not...they're just the inverse of the top.
ReplyDeleteI think you have to pick a price where it is less risky.
Deletea break of the top of the gap up at spy 144.73 would be where I would pick. There isn't anyone in that gap that will stay. They will want to keep their gains above the gap.
Shorting just because we are at a certain level doesn't work because overbought can always become more overbought.
And the bears get hosed again!
ReplyDeleteI'm ready for a couple of drinks. Still too early though...
ReplyDeleteStrange how that happens, hun? I'd be asleep by 5 o'clock though...
DeleteTOF- Dreams aside, are you still in TZA. I might join you.
ReplyDeleteyeah i'm in it. bought yesterday. i was down 65% or so on AMBS at one point with a big position and i swear this one pisses me off more yet i'm down maybe 2.5% or so. i think it's the whole combo of buying this and selling SNE. you're loaded up on cash now right?
DeleteAll cash and it's burning a hole in my pocket already.
DeleteAUMN - I'd feel better about a dip to ~$3.80 to just cover that untested candle from Nov. than $3.50, of course today's $4.06 would be great too!
ReplyDeleteNEVER trust what those F _ _ ks at the fed say or think.
ReplyDeleteFricken idiots.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/most-fed-officials-saw-economy-weathering-subprime-crisis.html
A feather in Janet Yellens cap.
Incompetence at best, criminal at worst, both fully qualify for dismissal and reorganization.
DeleteRitholtz says APPL is a technically broken stock.
ReplyDeleteBig Dave says it will go to 350 in fits and starts with a brief stop at 400.
That's a tough one. Any position would have to have some size. I'm not that good a cowboy.
honestly, i think the odds of it bombing one of these earnings reports are quite high, but it should be a buy if that happens. i still say the whole end to the exclusive contract with T was the main reason earnings got so juiced and that was a short term pop. longer term people will continue to migrate to macs, though, so it should be ok after it settles down.
Delete" i still say the whole end to the exclusive contract with T was the main reason earnings got so juiced"
DeleteMight that distill into a huge buy for T?
There is a long, long way down for AAPL, past $350 I'd say. Even at $350, would still be second largest company by market cap. Really hard to maintain longterm competitive advantage in technology. Look at every technology in history starting way back with railroads, air places, radios, mainframes, PC's, etc. It always gets commoditized over time and when you have a competitor in GOOG who gives away the software for free. Hardware is all made by the same outsourcers using same components.
DeleteManufacturing a large volume of product comprised primarily of software is where the profit lies.
DeleteSure, but given that GOOG is providing the software for free and you've got 10+ hardware manufacturers driving the prices down, including better features, etc., AAPL has to have a significantly better product year in and year out to maintain margins.
DeleteIt's like Win-PC vs. MAC. You could argue MAC was a better platform, but didn't matter because PC's were so much cheaper. Same will happen with phones. Maybe not so much in North America where you get the for "for free" but many poorer countries where you have to pay for the phone and the iphone is $700 and the Android is sub-$100. Even in North America, if you broke your phone and had to buy a new one inside the 24 months (usually teenagers), not many will pay the difference in my thinking.
NSPH - Can this one please recover $3.12 now that $2.50 Max Pain Op-Ex is done?
ReplyDeleteThank you!
Look at that silver chart. C&H?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/gold-silver-and-platinum-yes-platinum/
I'd much rather be looking at a chart where silver's in the single digits.
DeleteWell I looked at the SLV chart at stockcharts and the ETF was at $47 which this chart doesn't show as it's clearly a longer term yearly chart. However, I don't think you are going to get a shot at single digits for some time. The 27.50 support held nicely and we closed above the 50 dma on a weekly chart, so I think we go higher. The rsi is 51.
DeleteAGO my best performing US-listed stock today - guess the Moody's downgrade was more than priced in.
ReplyDeleteIt's still very compelling in my opinion - deep valuation discount, smart management, strong shareholders (Wilbur Ross won't let them do something stupid), a couple of key court coming soon decisions which look good so far, almost no competition, reasonable yield.
I bet than when the court cases do close, that will be the catalyst for the next leg up.
BB- Let me know when to short via your play off of Kaas.
ReplyDeleteWill do Mark.
DeleteI'm with you. I would want a move above 1500 and a pullback to successfully test 1500, then an upward move again. I'm trying to avoid the fake out.
ReplyDeleteCP - Check out JMBA when you get a chance. I kind of envision this thing being a much larger company playing into the whole healthy food / lifestyle trend. they're getting into offering kids meals, they're installing self serve machines in schools, and they're getting into branding / licensing. Management team has good deal of experience in large food companies. Nice cash flow past few quarters, clean balance sheet, nice turnaround in operations.
ReplyDeleteI knew that was Jamba juice before I looked. Fing stuff is packed with sugar. Probably means high margins and the drinks are really expensive.
Delete"packed with sugar"
DeleteHa, really? Why aren't I surprised, go figure....
Anyway, I was going to suggest one of those salad places(forget the name off hand) for lunch today instead but I can get my salad at JMBA I think so whichever place you guys wanna go is fine by me.
I like salad for lunch, usually I pile too much ob the plate.
Monthly chart of AAPL and DECK are very similar. If it holds then AAPL could bounce to $565 before moving much lower.
ReplyDeleteMaybe but I think it depends on what the indices do. If they are selling then any strength in appl would likely be sold. It's almost too big top go long or short and it's so over analyzed that there is no edge to us lowly traders.
Deletebot vxx at 24.45, about 2 min before it started dropping late this afternoon. I think I heard a little voice sayin SUCKA. I've been wanting to get in VXX since reading about it last weekend. This may be my one and only VXX trade of the year.
ReplyDeleteI like that dollar trade tof mentioned too so I bot UUP at 21.86.
Stops on both.
Check out EGHT, it made a new 52 week hi this week. I like the historicals on morningstare. I don't think they have much of an economic moat though. I can't imagine it would be very hard to replicate the business so you just left with how good is their marketing group and how spend happy is management.
ReplyDeleteFrom a purely selfish capitalistic pig shareholder point of view, I'd like to see them get bought out.
Deletei like VG in that same exact space. I think VG will go after their corporate business actually. the issue with all of them, though, is Skype and to a lesser extent Google Voice are encroaching on their territory and they're free.
DeleteOh, market's closed Monday apparently, can't rely on 2nd to correct me anymore!
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Damn this thing really tanked into close....
ReplyDeleteTVIX? Don't get me started, man. Oops, too late.
Delete52-wk range bewteen 5.25 and 219.60. And it last traded at 5.28. They keep inventing sicker instruments of torture.
Delete----! Trading volume on TVIX >5m. The last three times trading volume was >5m, TVIX closed at the lows of the day, only to close even lower every single freaking day afterwards. In other words, it has never looked back. This is one sick instrument. Which is why I'm thinking of jumping in.
DeleteI am truly sick, bro. I just opened 1000 shares of TVIX @ 5.25 against my better judgment.
DeleteAll in hopes I can close at 5.29 Tuesday morning. Why am I reminded of Cool Hand Luke?
DeleteGTC sell limit 200.
DeleteToo funny! ;)
DeleteSince I'm human and subject to confirmation bias, I figured I would channel my inner bear and read Hussman so as to help justify my TZA position (ha!). I see he's touting the current period as "a Who’s Who of Awful Times to Invest". I doubled checked his other mentions of this and he has been fairly accurate on these but maybe he's not mentioning other times when he mentioned it and the market went much higher???
ReplyDelete"Last week, the S&P 500 came within 1% of reprising a syndrome that we’ve characterized as a Who’s Who of Awful Times to Invest, featuring a Shiller P/E over 18 (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings), the S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low and 8% above its 52-week smoothing, investment advisory bulls (Investors Intelligence) over 47% with bears below 27%, and Treasury bond yields higher than 6 months earlier. This combination is one of numerous and nearly equivalent ways of defining an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields” syndrome. While there are certainly numerous conditions that are informative about stock market returns, and capture a much broader set of negative market outcomes, I don’t know of any other syndrome of market conditions – however defined – that has been so consistently hostile for stocks over the past century.
The historical instances corresponding to the above conditions represent a chronicle of overextended bull market rallies, where investors would typically have been quite incorrect to declare victory at halftime:
December 1972 - January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the next 21 months)
August - September 1987 (followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months)
July 1998 (followed abruptly by an 18% loss over the following 3 months, and at the beginning of a nearly 14-year period where the S&P 500, including dividends, has underperformed Treasury bills, with the S&P 500 nearly 30% lower four years later)
July 1999 (followed by a 12% market loss over the next 3 months, and a series of whipsaw recoveries and losses, with the S&P 500 over 40% lower three years later)
January 2000 (followed by a spike 10% loss over the next 6 weeks, a series of whipsaw recoveries and losses, and finally a bear market that took the S&P 500 over 45% below its Jan 2000 level by late 2002)
March 2000 (followed by a spike loss of 12% over 3 weeks, and a 49% loss into 2002)
July 2007 (followed by a 57% market plunge over the following 21 months)
January 2010 (followed by a 7% "air pocket" loss over the next 4 weeks, with a recovery into April and then a renewed decline, leaving the S&P 500 about 11% lower by July)
April 2010 (followed by a 17% market loss over the following 3 months)
December 2010 (near the start of QE2, and followed by a 10% further advance in the S&P 500 into May 2011, when an additional syndrome emerged that was also observed last week – see Extreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes – whereupon an 18% market plunge wiped out the entire gain, and then some).
March 2012 (followed by a further advance of about 3% over the following 3 weeks, and then a quick if unmemorable market decline of nearly 10%)."
I agree with BB that the Shiller P/E thing is not accurate since it includes a terrible once in a generation year. If you exclude that I believe it doesn't change the P/E that much tho.
I hate to tell you this, but his latest weekly post is interchangeable with any of his posts over at least the past year. I can vouch for that, as I've read every single one of them.
DeleteSalad Restaurant - This one in Sunnyvale is the one I used to visit at least once a week:
ReplyDelete"Fresh Choice WAS a chain of buffet-style restaurants which operated in California, Washington, and Texas under the names Fresh Choice, Fresh Plus, Fresh Choice Express, and Zoopa. The first restaurant was opened in Sunnyvale, California in 1986. Fresh Choice went out of business in December 2012.
Fresh Choice marketed itself as a healthier alternative to fast food restaurants with reference to menu options that include choices relatively low in fat, carbohydrates, and/or calories. The soups were marketed as "home style." All restaurants also had salad bars, artisan pizza, and breads."
Now I know why they went out of business.
DeleteI already know what's going to happen next week. On Monday global markets will sell off hard. On Tuesday they all recover. TVIX opens for post-holiday US trading @ 4.95.
ReplyDeleteI think bears will make another failed attempt on Tues.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p81308794583&a=163114106
ReplyDelete"I hate to tell you this, but his latest weekly post is interchangeable with any of his posts over at least the past year. I can vouch for that, as I've read every single one of them."
ReplyDeleteI know man I was just kidding. I actually read it and he has references to March 2012 and other parts that clearly weren't updated. Guess he has given up and is getting sloppy.
As much as I adore Hussman's daily dose of diatribe, I'm convinced there other more informative notes floating out there in cyberspace.
DeleteSpeaking about AUMN -- they announced a 6-month delay in ramping up to 850tpd throughput. Now they are expecting to achieve it in 1Q2014, assuming they are able to complete the San Mateo ramp in 4Q2013. Knowing how they operate, at least a 1 quarter of delay in the completion of the ramp is likely. So, really, the time to start buying this stock will be in 4Q2013. Until that time, it will be at the mercy of computer algos. On the other hand, there will be a bottom for it, say at $3. Thus, once it gets down to $3.50 (during the next sell-off in PMs), then scaling into it will be reasonably safe.
ReplyDeleteI am assuming that silver stays at the current level. If it mounts a sustainable rally and rises above $40, then AUMN might start picking up as well...
"I can vouch for that, as I've read every single one of them."
ReplyDeleteHolly crap bro, really? Damn.
Well, I finally totaled the NSPH trade. $57K for two round trips. Honestly, with my port, the risk wasn't really worth it. If it was $100K, then yes, risk v. reward was worth it. Not half that.
You guys get the universal right to give me shit Sunday afternoon. My Uncle is doing the Pats, Ravens game.
ReplyDeleteMark - i thought you said your uncle when we talked. thats f'n nuts! what's his name? I like the 9ers to win it all by the way. So that means they should lose.
DeleteBill Leavy. He's the referee. #127. My Moms brother.
DeleteHello gentlemen-
ReplyDeleteI told Mark I'd partake in Drinking Topics this week but I've been busy and I'm heading to Miami in 6 hours.
An hour ago, I quickly reviewed some recent posts here. I then went to bed.
I've been laying in bed for the past hour and I keep thinking about David.
I've been replaying David's comments/posts from the past 2 years through my head over and over.
In all honesty, they are truly incredible. In all my years of investing among thousands of traders, I have never seen anything remotely close to what we've seen transpire here over the past couple of years.
It makes me think of the Manti Teo situation currently exploding at Notre Dame. The story is so freakishly bizarre that there is simply no way you can make it up.
Call me crazy, but it is so insanely other-worldly that if well-written, it would actually translate very well into an interesting non-fiction investing narrative. The possibility exists that you (David) would make your money back by relating lessons learned from the whole ordeal.
You have hundreds of posts that deeply narrate the entire odyssey. Each horrific twist and turn repeated ad nauseam. The best comments would essentially become the book. And the lessons learned could almost be copied and pasted directly from 2nd's commentary in response to your posts.
Many of your buddhism-inspired comments would be essential for the success of the book.
I have a fairly rough idea of a shockingly bold title of such a book that could possibly generate significant interest in the marketplace. I won't post such a title here as it might be offensive to you.
I'm not joking at all. Life is all about learning from our heartaches and setbacks and turning them into opportunities for massive growth.
In fact, I would find it truly fascinating to write the book myself. The material is right in front of our eyes waiting patiently to be released to the rest of the world......
On a side note, what generally happens when the most ardent bear decides he can no longer take the relentless advance and throws in the towel in capitulation?
ReplyDeleteMurphy's law dictates that within hours or days, the stock in question crashes in spectacular fashion.
What would Murphy say about the most bullish investor in history finally throwing in the towel after years of (not sure if there is a phrase for it)?
By no means would I ever advocate an investment in AUMN, but this is almost textbook.
via BKbroiler, gave me a chuckle
ReplyDeletetrying to call a top has ruined many a man. This is going to be PAINFULLY slow and it's far from reaching the breaking point. sit back, roll one, keep your powder dry and wait.
Amazingly, yesterday was the first time AUMN has significantly broken it's lower BB as far back as I can chart on the daily.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete