Okay guys, here's a taste of the big break through I intend to watch for in the field of semiconductors, just something to be aware of but not necessarily act on, perhaps you're way ahead of me and are already following the subject?
Anyway, we can bet INTC and others have been working diligently on the possibility of implementing this kind of technology into production.:
" DNA-Mediated Assembly of Colloidal(nano) Materials
The use of engineered, single-stranded DNA molecules to direct the self-assembly of nano- and microscale particles is a powerful approach for making interesting ordered structures. The underlying idea is that single-stranded DNA oligomer brushes grafted onto spherical (or other) particles induce an interparticle attraction by the process of DNA hybridization (see figure below). A key advantage of this method is the possibility of producing highly specific and tunable interactions among mixed populations of particles, thereby forming multi-component structures that are difficult to achieve with other assembly methods (binary examples are shown in the Figure below)."
Dropping in on Tokyo Electron - So what has Tokyo Electron (TEL is the 2nd largest semiconductor capital equipment manufacturer, last I knew of) been up to?
Looks like a few acquisitions:
Monday, December 3rd, 2012 "Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL) has cancelled its joint solar venture contract with Sharp and dissolved the joint venture Tokyo Electron PV Ltd. set up by both companies. In February 2008, TEL and Sharp embarked on the development of plasma CVD systems for use in thin-film silicon solar photovoltaic cells. At present, Sharp appears to be in financial trouble. Meanwhile, TEL has also been on an acquisition spree. In March, TEL announced the acquisition of Oerlikon Solar. In May, TEL reached a definitive agreement to acquire NEXX Systems. In October, TEL acquired FSI International. In November, TEL reached a definitive agreement to acquire Magnetic Solutions Ltd. MSL is engaged in the development, manufacture, and sale of magnetic annealing systems."
While we're on the subject; Semiconductor week in review:
The Week In Review: Jan. 21
By Mark LaPedus Boeing should have chosen a safer type of lithium-ion battery chemistry for its new 787, according to Lux Research. At present, Boeing uses high-energy technology from GS Yuasa that suffers from thermal runaway. It should switch to an alternate type of lithium-ion battery, says the analyst firm.
At this week’s SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS), Samsung disclosed plans that it will offer 2.5D/3D foundry services. Like TSMC, Samsung will provide a turnkey solution, meaning it will offer the front- and back-end work for customers. “To start with, we will do it all in-house,” said Ana Hunter, vice president of foundry services at Samsung Semiconductor. “If everything comes from the same company, it’s going to save cost (and ensure quality).”
Also at ISS, Intel demonstrated the world’s first patterned 450mm wafer. The wafer was supplied by Sumco and the patterning was conducted on a nano-imprint tool from Molecular Imprints, said Robert Bruck, vice president of the Technology and Manufacturing Group at Intel. Now, the goal is to get “a thousand” wafers out to the equipment companies for 450mm development, he said.
Separately, Intel posted mixed results in the quarter. The chipmaker also issued guidance “for $13 billion in CapEx for 2013 as a meaningful surprise. Now, this includes $2 billion for 450mm development,” said C.J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays. The 450mm CapEx figure is non-equipment related. So, Intel’s real CapEx is $11 billion, flat from 2012 he said.
GlobalFoundries’ recent decision to build a new R&D center will accelerate its efforts to bring technologies from the lab to the fab, according to Ajit Manocha, chief executive of the company, at ISS.
The semiconductor industry is undergoing massive transformation, according to industry leaders speaking at ISS.
At ISS, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, provided his forecast. The IC market is expected to grow 6% in 2013, following a 2% decline in 2012, he said. CapEx is expected to fall 10% in 2013, following another 10% drop last year, he said.
The Semiconductor Research Corp. (SRC) and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced that $194 million will be dedicated during the next five years to six university microelectronics research centers to support the continued growth of the U.S. semiconductor industry. The program, dubbed the Semiconductor Technology Advanced Research network (STARnet), includes several industry partners: Applied Materials, GlobalFoundries, IBM, Intel, Micron, Raytheon, Texas Instruments and United Technologies.
Applied Materials has been honored with the 2013 IEEE Corporate Innovation Recognition award for its contributions to PECVD technology for flat panel display manufacturing.
GlobalFoundries announced Alexie Lee, general counsel and executive vice president of legal and corporate affairs, was recognized by The Manufacturing Institute, Deloitte, University of Phoenix, and the Society of Manufacturing Engineers with a Women in Manufacturing STEP (Science, Technology, Engineering and Production) Award.
Troubled Japanese chip maker Renesas continues to restructure. As part of the moves, the company will consolidate more design units and fabs.
Micron Technology has entered into agreements with Nanya to amend their Taiwan DRAM joint venture involving Inotera Memories. Micron is transitioning to purchase all of Inotera’s manufacturing output. Under the prior agreements, Nanya and Micron were obligated to purchase half of Inotera’s output.
Intel’s recent introduction of a new Atom processor platform is designed to target the fast-growing market for low-end smartphones in emerging economies. It represents a shrewd strategy that could allow the company to expand its currently minimal market share in the industry, according to IHS iSuppli.
Worldwide revenues for microprocessors designed for mobile PCs, desktop PCs, and PC servers will grow a mere 1.6% to $40.7 billion in 2013, according to IDC."
So true. Speaking of making money...RIMM is nearing the 23.6% line: $21. I see lots of similarities in that chart and SID and NIHD. SID first target is $7.2 to $7.7. 2nd target is $10. Backtested the 10wk EMA today. Looks ready. Only negative is Full Stochastics are overbought on weekly chart.
NIHD - if it can clear $8.60 its got clearance to $12. This f*cker really moved down hard huh?
Toss in PGH which appears to be in the bottoming process. All three have impressive earnings potential and are trading way off all time highs.
450mm is the wafer size, the last generation adopted was 300mm and it about bankrupted the industry.
450mm diameter offers one hell of a lot more real estate than 300mm, especially if you can obtain reasonable device yield. You get 158,962.5mm^2 vs 70,650mm^2 = 2.25x more real estate per wafer processed on which to populate with your device. So this cuts your cost per wafer considerably. The tooling to handle 450mm substrates ain't gonna come cheap though, not by the hair on your chinny-chin-chin.
Consider, INTC's optimistic goal at the moment is simply to deliver 1000 450mm wafers to their equipment vendors, no doubt so vendors can take physical measurements, a necessary starting point for designing the equipment necessary for the 160+ processes that must be developed and optimized before any thought of production can begin.
We experienced all kinds of problems working the "minor" bugs out of 300mm, those wafers warped like potato chips and went flying out of the rotating pedestal as soon as we hit 'em with a little heat in our rapid thermal processor. Our issues were minimal in comparison, we weren't the only ones, there were issues in almost every aspect, slip was another, where the wafer develops micro-cracking near the edges(resulting in edge die failures which lowers device yield) during thermal cycling.
And hope they don't fuck up your machine when a "lightly contaminated" recycled wafer(yes, test wafers aren't production wafers, they're recycled crap wafers with nasty shit all over them) comes through the line and craps up the entire inside of your machine and you have to tear it down and rebuild it. Of course you run multiple tests for a week 24x7 straight b/c Intel wants to understand why the process went to shit in a handbasket and your machine is a piece of crap.
Meanwhile INTC gets pissed b/c 1/4 of the entire line backs up since the flow cannot be rerouted through another identical tool, which could potentially introduce other undesirable variables(such as two dead tools simultaneously).
From BMO: Relative Strength Filter January 23, 2013
Energy Services Are Breaking Out
The global energy services index is breaking above an underperforming trend against both the ACWI, and ACWI Energy – Figure 1. o Beyond the linear pattern, we see a head and shoulders bottom on the relative chart. The newfound enthusiasm for the group has good breadth behind it. One-quarter of energy service stocks are breaking above the top ends of their channels – Figure 2. o The large cap with the best (trend/width ratio) price trend is Petrofac Ltd. – Figure 3. o The best turnaround candidate we see amongst small caps is Hornbeck, which is breaking above a short-term downtrend, while the long-term uptrend is still intact – Figure 4.
So assuming the die are ~300mm^2, there would be around 330 die per 300mm wafer and 825 die on a 450mm wafer A 4 core(die) processor costs $300 to purchase today, thus a single 300mm wafer with no defects would yield 83.5 CPU's worth $24,750 where a 450mm wafer would yield 206 CPU's worth $61,875.00
Typical machine throughput is around 12 wafers per hour(ha,ha!) x 24 hrs, 288 wafers per day with a end-market value of between $7,128,000 in the case of 300mm and 288 wafers with end-market value of $17,798,400.00
Tempers rise and butts get chewed when a machine is down b/c Mr. Dufus "accidentally" sticks a contaminated test wafer in the lot. Of course there are other ways to stop a production machine... For instance, it's not uncommon to have a small piece of algae dislodge in a de-ionized water supply source and contaminate your machine. Assuming some small portion of that algae clump makes it through the point of use filter, the pieces are delivered to the wafer surface through the dispensing nozzle and presto, one dead wafer and a contaminated machine, or maybe even all 25 wafers in the lot need at minimum re-work, could be several contaminated lots over a period of hours before the problem is caught during inspection of that recycled dirty test wafer Mr. Dufus stuck in there. If you're lucky the lot(s) is/are fine and only the test wafer(s) fail inspection.
"Lew Frankfort , Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Coach, Inc. said, " During the holiday quarter we drove modest growth and continued to gain overall traction on our key strategies. We posted strong international results, leveraged the Men's opportunity globally and strengthened our digital capabilities. However, we were disappointed by our performance in North America , where the holiday season proved challenging. Most broadly, the consumer was impacted by a muted macroeconomic environment, while in the Women's handbag category competition intensified and promotional activity increased. Importantly, we maintained our pricing strategies despite the retail climate, protecting our brand proposition."
I've always followed Coach since it tends to lead market downturns. I used to work for a public accounting firm and our group worked on their IPO...really well run company. Stock is down 20% pre-market.
McDonalds: Don Thompson concluded, "Moving forward, we remain focused on seizing the long-term opportunities in the global marketplace by leveraging our competitive advantages. We have a brand advantage in convenience, menu variety and value, a resilient business model, and the experience and alignment throughout the McDonald's System to navigate the current environment. For the near-term we expect top and bottom-line growth to remain pressured, with January's global comparable sales expected to be negative."
I haven't seen much coverage of this last part of their comments...
Above about MCD was posted by Doug Kass. He also posted "Just when the investment crowd gets bullish on Japan.... Nikkei -2% overnight. Could it happen in the U.S.?" It is ironic that the fever pitch on Japan was extremely high just a few days ago and the Nikkei futures are down 500 points since then. I do think the same happens here. I think we get a 4% or so pullback to 1,430ish...then we rip to new (all time?) highs.
i also think there is an outside chance that we are right at the highs of the year...a lot of momentum type companies or companies tied heavily to consumers topped out months ago and are showing weakening momentum readings on the monthly charts. the ones i'm referring to are WFM, CMG, PNRA, COH, TIF, JWN, MCD, LULU, AAPL, etc.
Oh yeah, good point, recall plenty discussion concerning new Eurozone taxes.
Likely to show up in earnings the next few quarters too, and of course Euroleaders in their infinite wisdom want Joe investor to foot the bill for their wild spending spree foolishly financed by offshore banksters.
let's say we get the all-clear: they go through the debt ceiling thing without any hiccups...then wtf will the market have to worry about? it's because of these "issues" that the shorts have piled on and created short squeezes. that fuel is gone. that's why we sell off quite hard, just like the Nikkei
NLS will go much higher...i agree that would be a great one to pick up on a selloff. let's say we get the 1,440 > 1,570 > 1,350 trade...the best thing in my opinion to do is watch those that hang in there on that bigger pullback.
It does seem like should have a pullback here and a lot of things are pointing towards it, but it's worth pointing out in 2012, we went pretty much straight up without a correction till the end of March and in 2011 we went straight up till mid-February.
Perhaps what we are seeing is a lot of people putting their year-end bonuses / retirement savings into equities the last few year-ends as the markets improve and people feel better. There are lots of things which show most investors are underexposed to equities, so this could be a followon to that.
even bears have given up hope of a pullback. everyone knows this vote will pass...everyone expects it to be the all clear for 1,500+. ahhh if it were only that easy.
Love the GGN, pays the div and all...BUT it is losing momentum and trailing off which has me a bit worried. I suspect we get a pullback and better entry.
That's just my luck -- I enter SIL when SLV is just starting to rise off its bottom, then SLV launches a noticeably rally, but SIL declines througout that rally! Now I can just see the rally in SLV ending (because every rally ends), SLV pulling back to its previous support, and SIL getting totally trashed, moving MUCH lower.
Instead of waiting for SIL to gap down through my sell stop at $21.70, I just sold my 1K shares at $21.77. The reason I re-entered yesterday at $22.14 is because I saw SIL above the $22 support level. Now that logic no longer holds, and so there is no reason to be in SIL.
Instead, I placed a buy stop limit for it at $22.15/$22.25, just above yesterday's high, so as to catch it on the way up if it rises above the $22 resistance soon. For some reason ETrade has no commissions on SIL, so I don't feel bad trying to manage this trade. Eventually, I'll get it right and will make up the little money I am losing now by stopping myself out quickly.
"I love it with a caveat of course. I want to see it break above $7.5 for a few days to signal higher highs and a clearly defined bottom. It will probably rally higher after that but you know there will be a pullback and that is when we buy the f*ck out of it. Just like with ANR. I like those setups better than picking bottoms and getting f*cked like buyers did with WFR or FSLR last winter."
so....i would pay very close attention to the patterns in ANR, nat gas, etc that have already put in an initial set of higher highs. all of the brazilian stocks are setting up right now. there is no confirmation of a bottom just yet but my initial guess is they have bottomed. almost all of these have a higher high to start the new uptrend. after that higher high is put in there will be a pullback and the trick part is identifying when to buy during that pullback.
if i get the pullback in the market that i'm expecting SID, NIHD etc are the ones I will be paying attention to.
Look at IRE for example. that sucker put in a higher high in early Dec before pulling back / consolidating. if we're patient enough to wait for this process and just pull the trigger on that initial up move on vol out of that base we will have ourselves a very low risk entry.
the same thing happened with SNE...
the same thing happened with ANR (10/9, 12/5, 1/22).
I just cancelled my buy stop limit on SIL. Its chart has changed, and it is not looking good at all. Coupling that with silver being locally overbought and due for a pullback, there is no reason to be in SIL right now...
wow now i see why you guys always talk about TVIX. you catch that on the right swing and hold you're a f*cking legend. i don't want to talk about the opposite side of that trade though.
my take on this earnings season is that it seems that stuff related to relatively large consumer purchases has been doing poorly. anyone seeing stuff do well in this area?
i turned on CNBC last night and got some great nuggets that just told me that the market is due for a pullback at least if not a true top. Guy Adami and Jim Cramer both concluded that the market will hit 1,500 and then move higher. i think that's the consensus.
i don't normally turn on the TV at all but that got me hooked so i wanted to listen to it today as Apple came out with earnings. they have this guy on CNBC right now that is great. Jeff Gundlach. he's hitting the nail on the head when it comes to sentiment with Apple and with the overall market. Look at the reverse: sentiment on SNE. There was a positive article on them in Seeking Alpha and literally 99% of the comments were negative.
the same can be said for the market in general over the past 4 years. and now everyone is sure we're heading to 1,550+. i mean come on now people!
>> David, What do you think about trading stocks not-silver related in order to reduce the correlation with your AUMN and thereby reducing your risk?
BB, I really liked the idea of the SNE trade, but I was waiting for a large rebound in the Yen before entering SNE. It seems like the SNE traders got impatient and started rallying SNE before that rebound had materialized. Now, however, FXY seems to be putting in a bottom, and the chance of a bounce off that bottom has increased. I'll keep an eye on SNE & FXY and will see if there is a good entry point for me...
Live Trader Education Webinar on January 24 Submitted by Deron Wagner (75 comments) on Wed, 01/23/2013 - 13:07 #116900 Hello fellow traders,
If you enjoy reading the daily ETF analysis column I post here on CaraCommunity.com every day, you may be interested in attending a Live Online Webinar I am hosting for active technical traders on Thursday, January 24 at 9:00 pm ET.
This will be an educational event where we will analyze the chart patterns of YOUR personal stock and ETF picks, which will help improve your analysis skills if you are a short to intermediate-term trader.
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I just looked at the contango structure of VIX futures, and I see that February ones closed today at 13.70! That leaves them pretty much no room to fall. The March ones closed at 15.05, which is also very low by historical standards. So I have just purchased 1K shares of TVIX at $4.89.
You know what, guys? I think the place to be right now is QID. You could open a starter position here, or you could wait for a dead cat bounce in AAPL on Thursday.
2nd - After thinking about it some more I think what happens in the short term is this...granted I'm not the best at calling really short term moves:
we might pull back slightly but then make higher highs around 1,510 or so...get everyone thinking the market is really really strong b/c it just shrugged off the move in Apple. then it drops hard for 4 to 8 weeks. 15 to 20% down. TZA goes to $11 then hits $17 by March.
so the question becomes: do you try to get fancy with your trade and play the potential mini bounce that sucks in everyone as it breaks above 1,500 to 1,510 or so and makes everyone believe in its strength or do you sit through it knowing in a month or two the market pulls back hard? do you risk a 5% drawdown for a bigger 50% move? i like those odds.
>> we might pull back slightly but then make higher highs around 1,510 or so...get everyone thinking the market is really really strong b/c it just shrugged off the move in Apple. then it drops hard for 4 to 8 weeks.
Well, I have definitely seen this scenario before, so it fits with investor's psychology well...
there's actually room up to 1,540 before topping. that is likely as well...so if you're in TZA with the goal of a drop to 1,300 then the possibility exists that TZA drops all the way to 10.3 before going to $15.60 or so in this scenario.
so perhaps the best play is to wait for a higher high on lower RSI readings (i.e., divergence) to start building the position which is what I said before is the best way to pick a top. if it was as simple as just shorting the overall market then we would be better off just going short and saying the hell with it. but with ultra ETFs entry points are crucial.
either way we are very close to a pretty important top. i think the best play is to begin buying TZA. small caps almost always have bigger drops and the p/e on the russell is significantly higher than the S&P. i believe it's around 17.
I just looked at the VIX chart and saw that it has not been so low (under 13) since 2006... There is REALLY very little downside for it left. I *like* the long TVIX trade at this point.
If S&P rises above 1500, then I'll just add to my TVIX position. I don't think people are prepared to see the negative impact the 2% payroll tax hike will have on business and economy, so we have some potentially very disappointing economic readings ahead...
i'm thinking our original thinking was correct:
ReplyDelete> 1,500
> 1,440ish
> 1,550 / all time highs (marginally)
> 15 to 20% pullback
> 1,700
What a doozy that would be. suck a lot of people in around 1,500ish and get them feeling good as we hit new all time highs then we get a smack down.
It's already too 'feel good' for me.
DeleteOkay guys, here's a taste of the big break through I intend to watch for in the field of semiconductors, just something to be aware of but not necessarily act on, perhaps you're way ahead of me and are already following the subject?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we can bet INTC and others have been working diligently on the possibility of implementing this kind of technology into production.:
" DNA-Mediated Assembly of Colloidal(nano) Materials
The use of engineered, single-stranded DNA molecules to direct the self-assembly of nano- and microscale particles is a powerful approach for making interesting ordered structures. The underlying idea is that single-stranded DNA oligomer brushes grafted onto spherical (or other) particles induce an interparticle attraction by the process of DNA hybridization (see figure below). A key advantage of this method is the possibility of producing highly specific and tunable interactions among mixed populations of particles, thereby forming multi-component structures that are difficult to achieve with other assembly methods (binary examples are shown in the Figure below)."
http://sinnoresearchgroup.org/?page_id=750
Dropping in on Tokyo Electron - So what has Tokyo Electron (TEL is the 2nd largest semiconductor capital equipment manufacturer, last I knew of) been up to?
ReplyDeleteLooks like a few acquisitions:
Monday, December 3rd, 2012
"Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL) has cancelled its joint solar venture contract with Sharp and dissolved the joint venture Tokyo Electron PV Ltd. set up by both companies. In February 2008, TEL and Sharp embarked on the development of plasma CVD systems for use in thin-film silicon solar photovoltaic cells. At present, Sharp appears to be in financial trouble. Meanwhile, TEL has also been on an acquisition spree. In March, TEL announced the acquisition of Oerlikon Solar. In May, TEL reached a definitive agreement to acquire NEXX Systems. In October, TEL acquired FSI International. In November, TEL reached a definitive agreement to acquire Magnetic Solutions Ltd. MSL is engaged in the development, manufacture, and sale of magnetic annealing systems."
This, and additional goings on here:
http://semimd.com/blog/tag/tel/
While we're on the subject; Semiconductor week in review:
ReplyDeleteThe Week In Review: Jan. 21
By Mark LaPedus
Boeing should have chosen a safer type of lithium-ion battery chemistry for its new 787, according to Lux Research. At present, Boeing uses high-energy technology from GS Yuasa that suffers from thermal runaway. It should switch to an alternate type of lithium-ion battery, says the analyst firm.
At this week’s SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS), Samsung disclosed plans that it will offer 2.5D/3D foundry services. Like TSMC, Samsung will provide a turnkey solution, meaning it will offer the front- and back-end work for customers. “To start with, we will do it all in-house,” said Ana Hunter, vice president of foundry services at Samsung Semiconductor. “If everything comes from the same company, it’s going to save cost (and ensure quality).”
Also at ISS, Intel demonstrated the world’s first patterned 450mm wafer. The wafer was supplied by Sumco and the patterning was conducted on a nano-imprint tool from Molecular Imprints, said Robert Bruck, vice president of the Technology and Manufacturing Group at Intel. Now, the goal is to get “a thousand” wafers out to the equipment companies for 450mm development, he said.
Continued:
Separately, Intel posted mixed results in the quarter. The chipmaker also issued guidance “for $13 billion in CapEx for 2013 as a meaningful surprise. Now, this includes $2 billion for 450mm development,” said C.J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays. The 450mm CapEx figure is non-equipment related. So, Intel’s real CapEx is $11 billion, flat from 2012 he said.
DeleteGlobalFoundries’ recent decision to build a new R&D center will accelerate its efforts to bring technologies from the lab to the fab, according to Ajit Manocha, chief executive of the company, at ISS.
The semiconductor industry is undergoing massive transformation, according to industry leaders speaking at ISS.
At ISS, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, provided his forecast. The IC market is expected to grow 6% in 2013, following a 2% decline in 2012, he said. CapEx is expected to fall 10% in 2013, following another 10% drop last year, he said.
The Semiconductor Research Corp. (SRC) and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced that $194 million will be dedicated during the next five years to six university microelectronics research centers to support the continued growth of the U.S. semiconductor industry. The program, dubbed the Semiconductor Technology Advanced Research network (STARnet), includes several industry partners: Applied Materials, GlobalFoundries, IBM, Intel, Micron, Raytheon, Texas Instruments and United Technologies.
Applied Materials has been honored with the 2013 IEEE Corporate Innovation Recognition award for its contributions to PECVD technology for flat panel display manufacturing.
GlobalFoundries announced Alexie Lee, general counsel and executive vice president of legal and corporate affairs, was recognized by The Manufacturing Institute, Deloitte, University of Phoenix, and the Society of Manufacturing Engineers with a Women in Manufacturing STEP (Science, Technology, Engineering and Production) Award.
Troubled Japanese chip maker Renesas continues to restructure. As part of the moves, the company will consolidate more design units and fabs.
Micron Technology has entered into agreements with Nanya to amend their Taiwan DRAM joint venture involving Inotera Memories. Micron is transitioning to purchase all of Inotera’s manufacturing output. Under the prior agreements, Nanya and Micron were obligated to purchase half of Inotera’s output.
Intel’s recent introduction of a new Atom processor platform is designed to target the fast-growing market for low-end smartphones in emerging economies. It represents a shrewd strategy that could allow the company to expand its currently minimal market share in the industry, according to IHS iSuppli.
Worldwide revenues for microprocessors designed for mobile PCs, desktop PCs, and PC servers will grow a mere 1.6% to $40.7 billion in 2013, according to IDC."
http://semimd.com/blog/2013/01/21/the-week-in-review-jan-21/
450mm is like over 17 inches, right? That's beyond dinner-plate size.
Delete'It's easy to make money in the market, it's harder to keep it"... It just feels like one of those times right now.
ReplyDeleteSo true. Speaking of making money...RIMM is nearing the 23.6% line: $21. I see lots of similarities in that chart and SID and NIHD. SID first target is $7.2 to $7.7. 2nd target is $10. Backtested the 10wk EMA today. Looks ready. Only negative is Full Stochastics are overbought on weekly chart.
DeleteNIHD - if it can clear $8.60 its got clearance to $12. This f*cker really moved down hard huh?
Toss in PGH which appears to be in the bottoming process. All three have impressive earnings potential and are trading way off all time highs.
RSI_EMA for TZA was at 15.8 at the close. Here are the last times it hit this low:
ReplyDelete*9/13/12 - 16.2 reading > went 8% higher in 2 weeks, 12% higher in 4 weeks, 18% higher in 6 weeks, 36% higher in 8 weeks
*9/14/12 - 13.7 reading > went 11% higher in 2 weeks, 15% higher in 4 weeks, 21% higher in 6 weeks, 40% higher in 8 weeks
*2/3/12 - 12.9 reading > went 7% higher in 1 week, 16% higher in 4 weeks, 28% higher in 3.5 months, 34% higher in 4 months
*7/7/11 - 16.0 reading > went 18% higher in 10 days, 123% higher in 4 weeks
*12/21/10 - 16.5 reading > went 4.4% higher in 10 days
*4/14/10 - 14.3 reading > went 8.7% higher in 3 days, 37% higher in 3 weeks, 45% higher in 6 weeks, 46% higher in 8 weeks, 55% higher in 10 weeks
So really all but one of them resulted in gains of at least 34% in 2 to 4 months. Wow.
January 16, 2013 Molecular Imprints Delivers Industry's 1st 450MM Advanced Lithography System to a Leading Semiconductor Manufacturer.
ReplyDeleteObviously this would be INTC. 450mm, OMG.....
SUOPY is this INTC's sole source silicon vender for 450mm? I kinda doubt it, doesn't memc manufacture 450mm yet?
Deleteam i alone i not understanding any of this?
Delete450mm is the wafer size, the last generation adopted was 300mm and it about bankrupted the industry.
Delete450mm diameter offers one hell of a lot more real estate than 300mm, especially if you can obtain reasonable device yield. You get 158,962.5mm^2 vs 70,650mm^2 = 2.25x more real estate per wafer processed on which to populate with your device. So this cuts your cost per wafer considerably. The tooling to handle 450mm substrates ain't gonna come cheap though, not by the hair on your chinny-chin-chin.
Consider, INTC's optimistic goal at the moment is simply to deliver 1000 450mm wafers to their equipment vendors, no doubt so vendors can take physical measurements, a necessary starting point for designing the equipment necessary for the 160+ processes that must be developed and optimized before any thought of production can begin.
DeleteWe experienced all kinds of problems working the "minor" bugs out of 300mm, those wafers warped like potato chips and went flying out of the rotating pedestal as soon as we hit 'em with a little heat in our rapid thermal processor. Our issues were minimal in comparison, we weren't the only ones, there were issues in almost every aspect, slip was another, where the wafer develops micro-cracking near the edges(resulting in edge die failures which lowers device yield) during thermal cycling.
And hope they don't fuck up your machine when a "lightly contaminated" recycled wafer(yes, test wafers aren't production wafers, they're recycled crap wafers with nasty shit all over them) comes through the line and craps up the entire inside of your machine and you have to tear it down and rebuild it. Of course you run multiple tests for a week 24x7 straight b/c Intel wants to understand why the process went to shit in a handbasket and your machine is a piece of crap.
DeleteMeanwhile INTC gets pissed b/c 1/4 of the entire line backs up since the flow cannot be rerouted through another identical tool, which could potentially introduce other undesirable variables(such as two dead tools simultaneously).
NLS - New 52wk high......
ReplyDeleteI am placing a sell stop limit for my 1000 shares of SIL at $21.70/$21.65, just below the recent lows.
ReplyDeleteDemark calling for a similar scenario to TOF:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/demark-sees-s-p-500-falling-5-5-after-peak-near-1-500.html
From BMO:
ReplyDeleteRelative Strength Filter January 23, 2013
Energy Services Are Breaking Out
The global energy services index is breaking above an underperforming trend against both the ACWI, and ACWI Energy – Figure 1.
o Beyond the linear pattern, we see a head and shoulders bottom on the relative chart.
The newfound enthusiasm for the group has good breadth behind it. One-quarter of energy service stocks are breaking above the top ends of their channels – Figure 2.
o The large cap with the best (trend/width ratio) price trend is Petrofac Ltd. – Figure 3.
o The best turnaround candidate we see amongst small caps is Hornbeck, which is breaking above a short-term downtrend, while the long-term uptrend is still intact – Figure 4.
Offed TVIX @ 4.97.
ReplyDeleteOffed QID @ 27.46.
Obviously, the above transactions were executed about 25 minutes ago. But I had trouble logging in to TT.
Deletetof- I would say CP is alone in understanding his comments re semis.
ReplyDeleteThis sufficiently explains much of it:
Deletehttp://hewo.xedoloh.com/2011/10/processor-basics/
For crying out loud, CP!
DeleteSo assuming the die are ~300mm^2, there would be around 330 die per 300mm wafer and 825 die on a 450mm wafer A 4 core(die) processor costs $300 to purchase today, thus a single 300mm wafer with no defects would yield 83.5 CPU's worth $24,750 where a 450mm wafer would yield 206 CPU's worth $61,875.00
DeleteTypical machine throughput is around 12 wafers per hour(ha,ha!) x 24 hrs, 288 wafers per day with a end-market value of between $7,128,000 in the case of 300mm and 288 wafers with end-market value of $17,798,400.00
Tempers rise and butts get chewed when a machine is down b/c Mr. Dufus "accidentally" sticks a contaminated test wafer in the lot. Of course there are other ways to stop a production machine... For instance, it's not uncommon to have a small piece of algae dislodge in a de-ionized water supply source and contaminate your machine. Assuming some small portion of that algae clump makes it through the point of use filter, the pieces are delivered to the wafer surface through the dispensing nozzle and presto, one dead wafer and a contaminated machine, or maybe even all 25 wafers in the lot need at minimum re-work, could be several contaminated lots over a period of hours before the problem is caught during inspection of that recycled dirty test wafer Mr. Dufus stuck in there. If you're lucky the lot(s) is/are fine and only the test wafer(s) fail inspection.
Such is life!
"Lew Frankfort , Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Coach, Inc. said, " During the holiday quarter we drove modest growth and continued to gain overall traction on our key strategies. We posted strong international results, leveraged the Men's opportunity globally and strengthened our digital capabilities. However, we were disappointed by our performance in North America , where the holiday season proved challenging. Most broadly, the consumer was impacted by a muted macroeconomic environment, while in the Women's handbag category competition intensified and promotional activity increased. Importantly, we maintained our pricing strategies despite the retail climate, protecting our brand proposition."
ReplyDeleteI've always followed Coach since it tends to lead market downturns. I used to work for a public accounting firm and our group worked on their IPO...really well run company. Stock is down 20% pre-market.
I would be on the watch for an OGRe this AM. It's bound to happen sooner or later so best to be prepared.
ReplyDeleteQID reopened @ 27.41...
ReplyDeleteAdded TZA @ 11.30...
ReplyDeleteAdding DXD @ 43.15...
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I now sense a short-squeeze.
ReplyDeleteMan, trading today is like the Friday after Thanksgiving...
ReplyDeleteHearing Unconfirmed Chatter of Google, Realogy Bid for Zillow of $45/Share $Z
ReplyDeleteAUMN @ 4.04...
ReplyDeleteJust a craps game right now...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOffed AREX at 26.20
ReplyDeleteOffed AUMN @ 4. It doesn't look good right now.
ReplyDeleteTZA off @ 11.36...
ReplyDeleteI'd have to imagine that the fear in being short was at a fever pitch last night.
ReplyDeleteyou know the end of the rally is near when MTG and RDN are rallying hard.
ReplyDeleteWe initially thought in a similar manner concerning natty.
DeleteMcDonalds:
ReplyDeleteDon Thompson concluded, "Moving forward, we remain focused on seizing the long-term opportunities in the global marketplace by leveraging our competitive advantages. We have a brand advantage in convenience, menu variety and value, a resilient business model, and the experience and alignment throughout the McDonald's System to navigate the current environment. For the near-term we expect top and bottom-line growth to remain pressured, with January's global comparable sales expected to be negative."
I haven't seen much coverage of this last part of their comments...
Above about MCD was posted by Doug Kass. He also posted "Just when the investment crowd gets bullish on Japan.... Nikkei -2% overnight. Could it happen in the U.S.?" It is ironic that the fever pitch on Japan was extremely high just a few days ago and the Nikkei futures are down 500 points since then. I do think the same happens here. I think we get a 4% or so pullback to 1,430ish...then we rip to new (all time?) highs.
ReplyDeletei also think there is an outside chance that we are right at the highs of the year...a lot of momentum type companies or companies tied heavily to consumers topped out months ago and are showing weakening momentum readings on the monthly charts. the ones i'm referring to are WFM, CMG, PNRA, COH, TIF, JWN, MCD, LULU, AAPL, etc.
DeleteCOH - Well, Im certainly glad I wasn't a buyer yesterday....
ReplyDeleteRTH - No shares available to short?
ReplyDeleteTZA - Good work guys, so far so good.
ReplyDeleteRobot's still long from Jan 1st, @1426.... We'll see.
VE - Pulling my $11.50 bid, step back and watch for a few hours.
I thought France started a weird new tax on french adr's, I know I took TOT of my lisy because of it.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, good point, recall plenty discussion concerning new Eurozone taxes.
DeleteLikely to show up in earnings the next few quarters too, and of course Euroleaders in their infinite wisdom want Joe investor to foot the bill for their wild spending spree foolishly financed by offshore banksters.
Closed QID/DXD at breakeven. This is no time to be short. I can see a squeeze following the House vote. A better short may set up in the aftermath.
ReplyDeleteSelf-Destruct Sequence Aborted.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARJ8cAGm6JE
DeleteYes, Dave.
DeleteMLNX - higher low again, so far.
ReplyDeleteLooks like volume has increased as well, they must intend on flipping for a $0.05 gain or something.
DeleteTVIX @ 4.81. Why? I really have no freaking idea. Playing the 6-and-8 waiting for a hot shooter.
ReplyDeleteOff @ 4.76. Another stupid trade. Or stupid trader trick.
Delete"Closed QID/DXD at breakeven. This is no time to be short. I can see a squeeze following the House vote. A better short may set up in the aftermath."
ReplyDeleteI'll bet lots of Yen longs were thinking the same thing before the BOJ vote.
The initial move will be the wrong one...remember that!
DeleteNSC - This one wants to go up.
ReplyDeleteMarket sells off regardless of vote results. No one is expecting it. Just like the BOJ vote.
ReplyDeleteI'll be here all day with my intraday predictions
let's say we get the all-clear: they go through the debt ceiling thing without any hiccups...then wtf will the market have to worry about? it's because of these "issues" that the shorts have piled on and created short squeezes. that fuel is gone. that's why we sell off quite hard, just like the Nikkei
DeleteThere are still under priced stuff I'm looking at, so I welcome a selling binge. NLS could be one of these, target price $25, right?
DeleteNLS will go much higher...i agree that would be a great one to pick up on a selloff. let's say we get the 1,440 > 1,570 > 1,350 trade...the best thing in my opinion to do is watch those that hang in there on that bigger pullback.
DeleteIt does seem like should have a pullback here and a lot of things are pointing towards it, but it's worth pointing out in 2012, we went pretty much straight up without a correction till the end of March and in 2011 we went straight up till mid-February.
ReplyDeletePerhaps what we are seeing is a lot of people putting their year-end bonuses / retirement savings into equities the last few year-ends as the markets improve and people feel better. There are lots of things which show most investors are underexposed to equities, so this could be a followon to that.
Anyway you look at it, calling tops is hard.
even bears have given up hope of a pullback. everyone knows this vote will pass...everyone expects it to be the all clear for 1,500+. ahhh if it were only that easy.
DeletePAL vs GGN - These two charts have similar appearance, IMO.
ReplyDeleteLove the GGN, pays the div and all...BUT it is losing momentum and trailing off which has me a bit worried. I suspect we get a pullback and better entry.
DeleteHouse approved.
ReplyDeleteSELL SELL SELL!
DeleteHead in any direction on the freeway of your choice!
Deletei think southbound looks nice and clear. not much traffic.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMbATaj7Il8
Delete"MCD warns of slow start to new year" Just turned the radio on and heard this.
ReplyDeleteThat's just my luck -- I enter SIL when SLV is just starting to rise off its bottom, then SLV launches a noticeably rally, but SIL declines througout that rally! Now I can just see the rally in SLV ending (because every rally ends), SLV pulling back to its previous support, and SIL getting totally trashed, moving MUCH lower.
ReplyDeleteInstead of waiting for SIL to gap down through my sell stop at $21.70, I just sold my 1K shares at $21.77. The reason I re-entered yesterday at $22.14 is because I saw SIL above the $22 support level. Now that logic no longer holds, and so there is no reason to be in SIL.
DeleteInstead, I placed a buy stop limit for it at $22.15/$22.25, just above yesterday's high, so as to catch it on the way up if it rises above the $22 resistance soon. For some reason ETrade has no commissions on SIL, so I don't feel bad trying to manage this trade. Eventually, I'll get it right and will make up the little money I am losing now by stopping myself out quickly.
DeleteGeneral Dynamics loss $2B, due to defense budget cutbacks.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- awesome timing on the SNE trade! You not only pick out the winners but also pick out the right timing to enter them!
ReplyDeletethe only issue is i sold the day before it really moved!
DeleteHII - This thing just keeps on a rollin'
ReplyDeleteAAPL reports, eh?
ReplyDeleteoffed XCO & NIHD, I'll try to re-enter but said that on IRE 30% ago.
ReplyDeleteNIHD has some congestion here with 5 striaght up days rather watch than participate.
Mkt just seems to not want to fall, but certainly extended on many fronts. Oh Yeah its called a bull mkt.
T3d - this is what I said previously about NIHD:
Delete"I love it with a caveat of course. I want to see it break above $7.5 for a few days to signal higher highs and a clearly defined bottom. It will probably rally higher after that but you know there will be a pullback and that is when we buy the f*ck out of it. Just like with ANR. I like those setups better than picking bottoms and getting f*cked like buyers did with WFR or FSLR last winter."
so....i would pay very close attention to the patterns in ANR, nat gas, etc that have already put in an initial set of higher highs. all of the brazilian stocks are setting up right now. there is no confirmation of a bottom just yet but my initial guess is they have bottomed. almost all of these have a higher high to start the new uptrend. after that higher high is put in there will be a pullback and the trick part is identifying when to buy during that pullback.
if i get the pullback in the market that i'm expecting SID, NIHD etc are the ones I will be paying attention to.
Look at IRE for example. that sucker put in a higher high in early Dec before pulling back / consolidating. if we're patient enough to wait for this process and just pull the trigger on that initial up move on vol out of that base we will have ourselves a very low risk entry.
Deletethe same thing happened with SNE...
the same thing happened with ANR (10/9, 12/5, 1/22).
Well, the initial move now appears to want to become the final move as well.
ReplyDeleteTVIX @ 4.68. No comments please, unless you can't help but bash the trade.
ReplyDeleteHere's what I think. We pull back between 5-10% over the next few weeks, then rocket higher when Congress hashes out the ultimate deal.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, I'll get good at catching falling knives.
DeleteWhoa! A freaking 3-cent jump in TVIX! Is this the beginning of the 300% move back up?
DeleteThe beatings will continue until moral improves.
ReplyDeleteMorals or morale? Morale is so bad it can only improve. Morals? Well, we're talking about trading here, bro. Anything goes.
DeleteShould have taken the 3-cent move.
DeleteMorale, that's what I get for not proofreading.
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/?link=MW_Nav_FP
ReplyDeleteHot shot Einhorn?
I just cancelled my buy stop limit on SIL. Its chart has changed, and it is not looking good at all. Coupling that with silver being locally overbought and due for a pullback, there is no reason to be in SIL right now...
ReplyDeleteDavid,
DeleteWhat do you think about trading stocks not-silver related in order to reduce the correlation with your AUMN and thereby reducing your risk?
wow now i see why you guys always talk about TVIX. you catch that on the right swing and hold you're a f*cking legend. i don't want to talk about the opposite side of that trade though.
ReplyDeletemy take on this earnings season is that it seems that stuff related to relatively large consumer purchases has been doing poorly. anyone seeing stuff do well in this area?
ReplyDeleteProbably because everyone is spending their money on Netflix - wow, up 30% after hours!
Deletei turned on CNBC last night and got some great nuggets that just told me that the market is due for a pullback at least if not a true top. Guy Adami and Jim Cramer both concluded that the market will hit 1,500 and then move higher. i think that's the consensus.
Deletei don't normally turn on the TV at all but that got me hooked so i wanted to listen to it today as Apple came out with earnings. they have this guy on CNBC right now that is great. Jeff Gundlach. he's hitting the nail on the head when it comes to sentiment with Apple and with the overall market. Look at the reverse: sentiment on SNE. There was a positive article on them in Seeking Alpha and literally 99% of the comments were negative.
the same can be said for the market in general over the past 4 years. and now everyone is sure we're heading to 1,550+. i mean come on now people!
the question is: will this AAPL earnings be the same turning point as the CSCO earnings in the late fall of 2007?
ReplyDeleteBuy TVIX if you think so?
Deletenot with your money would i be in that sucker! TZA is risky enuf for me.
DeleteWait for that fat pitch! ;)
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-30/bond-investor-gundlach-buys-stocks-sees-kaboom-ahead.html
ReplyDeletethis guy is quite the character.
Who's buying AAPL?
ReplyDeleteMaybe nobody, it's time for pie?
DeleteOffed TVIX @ 4.83. That makes it an overall breakeven day.
ReplyDeleteif we follow the 1970's/80's script we could be in for a 6 week pullback to 1,250. that would really f*ck with a lot of people.
DeleteIncluding me.
DeleteI'm closer to betting on such a pullback but I wanna see the whites of their eyes.
DeleteRetake 1596 decisively and 1505 is a given.
>> David, What do you think about trading stocks not-silver related in order to reduce the correlation with your AUMN and thereby reducing your risk?
ReplyDeleteBB, I really liked the idea of the SNE trade, but I was waiting for a large rebound in the Yen before entering SNE. It seems like the SNE traders got impatient and started rallying SNE before that rebound had materialized. Now, however, FXY seems to be putting in a bottom, and the chance of a bounce off that bottom has increased. I'll keep an eye on SNE & FXY and will see if there is a good entry point for me...
Live Trader Education Webinar on January 24
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Deron Wagner (75 comments) on Wed, 01/23/2013 - 13:07 #116900
Hello fellow traders,
If you enjoy reading the daily ETF analysis column I post here on CaraCommunity.com every day, you may be interested in attending a Live Online Webinar I am hosting for active technical traders on Thursday, January 24 at 9:00 pm ET.
This will be an educational event where we will analyze the chart patterns of YOUR personal stock and ETF picks, which will help improve your analysis skills if you are a short to intermediate-term trader.
There is NO COST to attend this event, and details/registration can be found at: http://blog.morpheustrading.com/2475
Look forward to "meeting" you there.
Cheers,
Deron
I just looked at the contango structure of VIX futures, and I see that February ones closed today at 13.70! That leaves them pretty much no room to fall. The March ones closed at 15.05, which is also very low by historical standards. So I have just purchased 1K shares of TVIX at $4.89.
ReplyDeleteCome on, bro. Trade in your entire AUMN position for positions in QID/TVIX. That just might shake up your implacable Buddhist temperament.
DeleteCould have caught a $4 move on AAPL, bro. I was thinking of jumping in around 458. With 30 shares, ha!
ReplyDeleteYou know what, guys? I think the place to be right now is QID. You could open a starter position here, or you could wait for a dead cat bounce in AAPL on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteI'm serious.
DeleteIf you want to open positions now, maybe DXD or TZA. I don't think any bounces are happening in the DJIA or IWM.
DeleteThere's also the tof seal of approval. Every freaking trade, after a few stops and starts, seems to work out.
DeleteYo, what UP, guys? We all had the balls to short positive surprises. Now we get the ultimate negative surprise, and we're standing around flat-footed.
ReplyDelete---- it. SDS @ 49.50...
ReplyDeleteI think we gap down, followed by a half-hearted rally, then sell off for real.
ReplyDelete1496 was the 2007 gap fill, huh?
ReplyDelete2nd - After thinking about it some more I think what happens in the short term is this...granted I'm not the best at calling really short term moves:
ReplyDeletewe might pull back slightly but then make higher highs around 1,510 or so...get everyone thinking the market is really really strong b/c it just shrugged off the move in Apple. then it drops hard for 4 to 8 weeks. 15 to 20% down. TZA goes to $11 then hits $17 by March.
so the question becomes: do you try to get fancy with your trade and play the potential mini bounce that sucks in everyone as it breaks above 1,500 to 1,510 or so and makes everyone believe in its strength or do you sit through it knowing in a month or two the market pulls back hard? do you risk a 5% drawdown for a bigger 50% move? i like those odds.
DeleteAGO up another 5% today, almost at $17. That's 15% the last 3 days since they got downgraded by Moody's.
ReplyDeleteFunny how bad news can turn out to be good sometimes.
One more downgrade might be the catalyst necessary to drive it over $19?
DeleteOr maybe a loss of their lawsuit?
Delete>> we might pull back slightly but then make higher highs around 1,510 or so...get everyone thinking the market is really really strong b/c it just shrugged off the move in Apple. then it drops hard for 4 to 8 weeks.
ReplyDeleteWell, I have definitely seen this scenario before, so it fits with investor's psychology well...
there's actually room up to 1,540 before topping. that is likely as well...so if you're in TZA with the goal of a drop to 1,300 then the possibility exists that TZA drops all the way to 10.3 before going to $15.60 or so in this scenario.
ReplyDeleteso perhaps the best play is to wait for a higher high on lower RSI readings (i.e., divergence) to start building the position which is what I said before is the best way to pick a top. if it was as simple as just shorting the overall market then we would be better off just going short and saying the hell with it. but with ultra ETFs entry points are crucial.
either way we are very close to a pretty important top. i think the best play is to begin buying TZA. small caps almost always have bigger drops and the p/e on the russell is significantly higher than the S&P. i believe it's around 17.
DeleteI just looked at the VIX chart and saw that it has not been so low (under 13) since 2006... There is REALLY very little downside for it left. I *like* the long TVIX trade at this point.
ReplyDeleteIf S&P rises above 1500, then I'll just add to my TVIX position. I don't think people are prepared to see the negative impact the 2% payroll tax hike will have on business and economy, so we have some potentially very disappointing economic readings ahead...
DeletePPMIQ - A $0.02 lottery ticket?
ReplyDelete