In their hour of darkness, the silence is deafening.
But let's move on. So what's the case for AAPL?
(a) Since mid-September, the stock price has dropped -36%.
(b) Which is the better trade here? Buy, or sell?
(c) Thousands of actively managed funds hold significant positions in AAPL. Fund managers that haven't yet sold are unlikely to do so at the 52-wk low. Fund managers that did sell at the highs are probably looking to buy back in.
(d) The bad news has likely been priced in, and then some.
The bottom line, of course, is wtf knows? Based on after-hours prices, I'm already down -2% on my position.
J220 - 90 days to construct the world's tallest building at 220 stories. Will history repeat, marking the blow-off top of the Chinese financial industry and possibly global market top? Dubai, Kuala Lampur, etc....
ReplyDeleteMarket top should be sometime end of this year, according to the schedule and assuming history does repeat:
http://www.worldofarchi.com/2012/10/sky-city-j220-construction-start-this.html
AAPL - I'd say there's more downside since it didn't recover today but just kept selling?
ReplyDeleteAAPL has in fact (in most cases) continued to decline in price the day following previous sell offs. Had I only known that earlier today.
Delete$440~$411 seems like potential target range to me, but like you say, who really nose?
DeleteAGM - The target price established June 4th and mentioned on TT remains $41
ReplyDeleteGMO - Took a punch in the kisser, any news on this one?
ReplyDeleteTTM - Tata struggling last few days, why is it new highs always coincide with bad news?
ReplyDeleteNews media/analyst pump and dump hyping?
There's a gap up from $17, can Tata really fall enough to fulfill this obligation?
DeleteWhy is it most stocks I own, always sell off going into earnings?
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing the general market goes up tomorrow. I see no real catalyst to drop the market other than it's over bought. How many times do we say over bought gets overboughter? For some reason it feels like we are getting new money in the but I'm not sure from where.
ReplyDeleteHow about this, let's round the numbers and say AAPL went from $700 in Sep to $450 today. My calculation shows that's a market cap drop of $235 billion. Now did that money just vanish or did we redistribute it where several peeps/funds are now showing losses? Maybe half of those peeps/funds just rode it up and back down so their gains are just a lot less. Wouldn't a lot of these fund managers just hang on to AAPL because it's just part of their total portfolio?
WHOOPS, typical typo, "we are getting new money in THE MARKET but I'm not sure from where?
DeleteThat kind of butt is spelled using two t's, ask Mark if you don't believe me! ;)
DeleteI'm not convinced AAPL has a large effect, butt maybe. I'm thinking more likely it's providing cover and distraction while the real phenomenon is going on elsewhere. Market looks like it's going nowhere or possibly down due to AAPL shenanigans while sidelined money quietly finds it's way into other value stocks?
Sooner or later there has to be a scary event to block commoner muppets from entry?
I'm really beginning to feel bearish even though my observations tell me global economies are continuing to gain positive momentum.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/money-cannot-buy-growth/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
ReplyDeleteAAPL: Technically....according to Big Dave...
ReplyDeleteGoes to $400 but not in a straight line. Then to $325 after the stop over at $400.
I see no reason to doubt it.
Edit after the service video tonight...AAPL $345.
ReplyDeleteCP- Nothing I see on GMO. Just lumped into the whole group I'd guess.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I feel like a turd here. I can't keep up with you guys!
re: AAPL - i've thought for a while now that they got a major boost from the iphone moving away from exclusivity with T to all carriers. that boost is gone for a while. however, i believe people will continue to migrate to the Macs....especially the younger generation. the computers are far and away better. i guess the issue as always, though, is they're in a very competitive environment and the products they sell eventually get commoditized away. every one of those big tech gadget companies goes through a period of difficulty. it's the tech providers like the QCOM's etc that hold thru ok.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the rumored 'death' of the desktop? If everyone (not us of course) is migrating to hand held and pad type devices, what does it mean for AAPL and the PC manufacturers?
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/apple-s-growth-slowdown-fuels-concern-of-shift-to-value-stock.html
DeleteThere are fewer new highs and more new lows than the Sept peak, I'm guessing this might mean those who are buying the new lows and those buying new highs, may both soon be trapped investors?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21136118315
CPHD reported AH's. Guidance for FY 2013 EPS -.05 to .01??? Wow, that could shake up he space.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it sold off just a bit, I'd sure appreciate a boost to off my NSPH position in the green.
DeleteGuidance is below consensus, must explain the 4% drop in AH?
DeleteJ220 - Uh oh, this building construction is scheduled to be completed by end of March 2013, just two months to go till China's next financial crisis?
ReplyDelete"According to its engineers, this will be the tallest skyscraper in the world by the end of March of 2013. Its name is Sky City, and its 2,749 feet (838 meters) distributed in 220 floors will grow in just 90 days in Changsha city, by the Xiangjiang river. Ninety days!"
http://gizmodo.com/5962070/china-will-build-the-tallest-building-in-the-world-in-just-90-days
A couple of thoughts. Maybe they can build it SAFELY in 90 days but I'm feeling a little rushed on the production side just reading the article. Second, I wonder if anyone has a list of how long it takes for things financial to crash after a shiny new building it finished?
DeleteWe moved into our new building in Oct 2001 and declared bankruptcy on 12/1 or 12/2, my memory is starting to fade on that one. I think peeps knew we were in trouble beforehand though.
The correlation is high, "China's skyscraper craze 'may herald economic crash' Tall-building boom may indicate impending disaster in China and India, claims report by Barclays Capital
Deletehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/11/skyscrapers-china-india-recession
"Let elderly people hurry up and die" says Japanese minister
ReplyDeletehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/22/elderly-hurry-up-die-japanese
JO
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/leaf-rust-outbreak-threatens-central-american-coffee-production.html
let's see
It does seem like the market wants to grind higher. It seems to be a similar patter the last few years at the start of the year.
ReplyDeleteWhy do we keep going?
1. Earnings are pretty good and the market is not expensive.
2. Inflation and interest rates are low.
3. Governments are not messing things up any more
So, other than the strong oversold condition or a major bad news sruprise, it seems like up is the way.
Port was talking about where the money is coming form. I'd say 2 sources:
1. Money is coming out of bonds as rates rise
2. It is the time of year when people put money into their 401K's and RRSP's in Canada. Most of these people just buy mutual funds every year. I imagine many of them are saying "get me some stocks" after the good year the markets had last year