Closed AAPL pre-market @ 452 and change. No snapback spotted, and I can't argue with Landry's take (thanks, Craig) re a $345 price target. The minute I agree with a lower price target, I'm out. No significant damage to the portfolio.
I'm having a hard time reconciling a long position with my bearish view of the market. AAPL does not trade contra to the broader indexes. The indexes will always pull back for better entries, and I'll reopen AAPL at that time. If it means reopening at a higher price, so be it.
My wife picked up a coffee press at Mollie Stone's last week. It's our first time using one, and I would say the java is twice as strong. We're never going back to standard coffee makers.
French presses have better contact time and usually the water is just off of a boil which is the ideal temp. Strength is water to coffee ratio. Some coffee makers use a 4 oz cup and others a 6 oz cup.
The rule of thumb (ignoring the manufacturers markings on the pot or press) is 1 SCAA scoop (two tbsp) coffee to 8 ounces of water.
That said, a French Press passes more essential oils (flavor). There are coffee makers that will do essentially the same thing with a stainless screen filter. I use a Technivorm Mocca Master with a stainless screen and it is comparable. The machine is expensive but easily the best made I have ever had, besides my espresso machine. Essentially bullet proof.
As soon as I'm am really up and running I'll send you some coffee that will blow your mind out of the press.
I think that was smart 2nd. It's pretty common in my mind (just based on observation, no official info) that a stock will bounce a bit after a day like yesterday, but then continue down for days or weeks as all the selling get out. I imagine we'll see broker downgrades next week which will cause selling as well.
Good point, BB. I think we've all honed our self-preservation instincts over the years, and in the end they're distilled into 'unofficial' observations like yours.
No doubt sentiment is bullish here, no doubt about it, but, as Sentimentrader recently said, that is to be expected given the run we've had and it doesn't seem too out of line.
But you either need extreme sentiment (no buyers left) or something bad and unexpected to derail the market here I think.
I agree market LOOKS like it's gonna keep melting up, we all know that DOESN'T mean it will. Your guess is as good as mine, hopefully you own something that's still grossly under priced and may peace be with you.
Still no word from the pulpit. The possibility that gold would break to the downside was pointed out, so why not at least share strategies being taken? Checking in when things are going well is helpful. Checking in when things aren't going well is essential. IMO.
"Checking in when things are going well is helpful. Checking in when things aren't going well is essential."
Absolutely, concerning the latter. Gold goes back to $1500 you'll see "We sold the top tick" in the WIR.
Note in preliminary glance that essential metals like palladium aren't crashing, conclusion: "World isn't going to hell in hand basket". Banks selling gold GTFIn, banks buying up gold, GTFO?
Homestly, I find gold just boring these days. Seems to be in an endless trading range between $1,600 and $1,800. If you had a stock range trading between $16 and $18, you'd lose interest too.
MLNX - I don't think the earnings were good at all, they revised down again by a huge amount, said inventory had backed up and one of their (basically two) customers. I guess that would be either IBM or HPQ, most likely HPQ.
So many paths to Palo Alto, it's amazing sometimes.
Deron- Excellent webinar last nite! Submitted by papadynamite (381 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 09:30 #116944 Your analysis of the weakness in the gold stocks was spot on. I can see where such stocks such as MUX, AG, and EXK are in freefall and currently not even worth nibbling.
I'm not planning to buy CPHD anyway, don't want to, just want out of NSPH at flat pre-earnings if possible. If they keep it down then f'em, I'll take the risk & try to trade around it if the news disappoints.
Sooner or later market rolls over, I don't want to be long something that's regarded an "if" and refuses to move up when the selling binge kicks in (end of March?).
AGO - Strong resistance at $16.95, gonna need an earnings report to determine the outcome.
GMO - Watch this thing go(down), looks like it's time for some upside or are metals crashing again (Moly was on it's way to $12 last I checked TC website)? GGB down too, metals must be crashing.....
Nice to see das musculus sphincter pupillae führt is actually moving(slowly) in my favor.
Re: Deron- Excellent webinar last nite! Submitted by Deron Wagner (76 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 09:53 #116947 (in reply to #116944) Hey Mr. Dynamite,
Thanks for your feedback. Glad you enjoyed the webinar.
Yeah, the breakdown in gold stocks could lead to another leg lower in the near-term. If looking to go long, would at least wait for next moving average support, and then you need the bullish reversal candle to signal entry point (for technical swing trading anyway).
By the way, in case anyone else wondering, we recorded the webinar and it will be available on our blog later this afternoon at: http://www.morpheustrading.com/blog
I bought some (very small 250 shares) yesterday and sold it this AM for about a $230 profit. I really need it to pull back....scary here. It keeps pumping out 5-6% a day, how long can that last? Maybe AAPL is helping it?
2nd - it's a natural reversion trade. Can it go lower one day? sure. But it's going much higher. We all were in the boat and missed it. It's time to find the next trade.
Just thinking of the possibilities for maximum torture....
Market is weak this AM leading all the believers to start pulling bids/going short/hedging, then reverses course mid to late day sucking everyone in,covering, unhedging, then sells off Monday.
Max pain> We sell off hard, leading newbie longs to jump ship. Then we reverse hard, forcing them to reenter at higher prices. Then we sell off hard and stay down- for a few weeks.
This NIHD company is really intriguing to me. I bought more today at $7.05 and $7.09. When you guys get a chance read through their annual report about the amount of wireless spectrum they own down in Brazil/Peru/Argentina/Mexico. See if you can come up with prevailing market rates for it...I'm coming up with a number around $9 to $11 Billion for their wireless spectrum. They also have 7,000 cell phone towers. T-Mobile just got an offer for their 7k towers for $2 Billion: http://hothardware.com/News/TMobile-Receives-2-Billion-Bid-for-7000-Wireless-Towers/
They also have $2 Billion in cash.
It's trading at like 0.4 times book and book is undervalued based on the above info.
By comparison CLWR is trading at 2.5 times book. CLWR doesn't have a wireless operation that a buyer would have to deal with but not too long ago that wireless division was generating pretty substantial profits for NIHD.
This one could be a big winner just based on asset values and the mad scramble going on by T, DTV, DISH, V, S, etc to add spectrum in the US and abroad.
gold in freefall Submitted by tom sheepngoats (15 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 11:46 #116952 They shall fling their silver into the streets and cast aside their gold like filth... Ezek 7:19
They are doing that! Why should I not pick some up? Because when I've done so lately I get killed! My respect for PapaD grows by the minute.
"Max pain> We sell off hard, leading newbie longs to jump ship. Then we reverse hard, forcing them to reenter at higher prices. Then we sell off hard and stay down- for a few weeks."
the pullback comes when we get lower momentum readings and higher prices. i learned me lesson on this. we need a drop, then higher highs on lower readings...that's the start of something. almost every pullback comes after this. Look at AAPL for example. every intermediate high over the past few years came on diverging RSI readings.
Good writeup on market psychology talking about the same thing and why it may change now that everyone believes at: http://blog.haysadvisory.com/2013/01/it-takes-3-years-to-make-us-believers.html
Just looking at a review of AAPL's earnings on seekingalpha. 185 comments and the vast majority of people are still positive on the stock. I think we see a lot more selling as still too much hope in a company with declining fundamentals.
holy shit guys. my friend shot me a text to tell me to turn on CNBC just now. i turned it on to easily one of the best interviews i've ever heard. it was an on-air conversation between bill ackman and carl icahn and there were a couple of swears and i believe even a racial slur dropped during the interview. go on to cnbc.com in 30 minutes or so to listen to it. unbelievable.
The rhetorical shelling heats up again between hedge fund icons Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, this... Friday, January 25, 12:35 PM ET The rhetorical shelling heats up again between hedge fund icons Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, this time with Mr. Icahn responding to yesterday's press release issued by Ackman commenting on their business dealings. To that end, Icahn retorts: "To get the record straight, I never asked Ackman to be my friend." He goes on to say that "Even if we were friends, I would never have invested with him because I believe he takes inordinate risks. Herbalife (HLF) I believe proves this point." HLF can turn out to be 'the mother of all short squeezes' Icahn warns, and selling short 20% of the company "leaves much to be questioned."
Interest rates dropping today with the US 10 year at 1.93% and high quality bonds (LQD) also down - good for all the insurers and particularly the lifeco's. The surprise is that high yield bonds (HYG) continue upwards - not sure why.
Good thing is that the rates going up because the economy is getting better, not because of inflation fears. Ie. because of expected growth which would be good for the market, not stagflation which kills markets.
When I was selling my AUMN in bulk last week because I was sure I would see it under very $4 soon, why didn't I sell ALL OF IT??? In any case, my buy limit at $3.60 was triggered this morning for 1000 shares. I just placed buy limit orders for 1000 shares at $3.50 and $3.40. Have to replace those shares I sold between $4.30 and $4.40.
AAPL - Is trading this one similar to traversing Mt. Fuji-san?
"Hideaki Kitajima, 51, rescue team chief at the Tokyo Mountaineering Federation, notes, "Beginner climbers should at least have high-quality shoes and rain apparel to make up for their lack of knowledge and experience."
Mt. Fuji's popularity as a climbing destination has grown since the mountain was included in the World Heritage interim list in 2007. In 2006, 220,000 climbers ascended the mountain. Last year, nearly 300,000 scaled the slopes.
Watanabe's concern regarding climber safety is well placed. Last year, there were 2,085 mountain accident victims across the nation, the worst annual figure ever recorded, according to the National Police Agency.
The Shizuoka prefectural government also plans to provide around-the-clock instructors at two of Mt. Fuji's three base stations. Their first target: underdressed climbers.
He teaches mountain accident rescue procedures at seminars organized by the federation several times a year."
My mistake> 'playing' with the money I 'could have' lost on AAPL had I held on to it. Instead, I got played. So in place of the +few hundred in my balance this morning (selling AAPL @ 452 and change), I'm now down -110. It doesn't sound like much, but emotionally it's annoying as hell.
Especially since I'm pretty sure both positions would have paid off big on Monday. On the other hand, had I held on, both positions would have kicked my --- on Monday. It's OK. I usually get nicked a few times in succession prior to each big score.
See yesterdays Moody Blues youtube. See saw..... Very hard to game the market at this point unless you are picking basing patterns. ST big blue arrow is sideways, momentum is non-existent.
Alright, here's my take. Next Monday, the 'selloff' traders are looking for will....not materialize! Instead, miners will join the rest of the market in taking the indexes to new 52-wk highs.
Buy weakness, sell strength. This does work for, and it's the only way to trade PM's IMO, unfortunately weakness has a tendency to snowball while rolling downhill (That's how it worked for me).
We have yet to see a 'jump the Sharkie' moment over there. When one of the followers questions Jim Jones and he goes for the kool aide it will be close...
As a long time Submitted by MCP (2 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 15:53 #116966 holder of many gold stocks, am I wrong in thinking, in general, the lower these go; when they reverse the higher they are going to go? Inverse relationship.
I'm not selling, I just hope the pain is worth it.
bought 1,000 shares of DMND before the close at 13.76 for only 1 reason: it's one of the few short squeeze plays left that hasn't squeezed. i wanted to keep the position small in the event it doesn't yet if it does do a moon shot i will be proud to say i have it. TZOO inspired me to take this position.
Re: As a long time Submitted by Bill Cara (3870 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 16:29 #116968 (in reply to #116966) MCP,
If there were a fundamental reason for precious metals stocks to fall the way they have this week and recently then there would be a basis for not anticipating that following a trend reversal the prices would go even higher. In fact, without the fundamentals in place, the subsequent bull phases would be disappointing. We refer to those situations as "cycle failures".
However, what is disappointing in this environment is that the fundamentals are in place to have higher prices for the precious metals stocks and in fact to expect even higher prices at the peak of the next cycle.
What is happening I believe is that dominant "hot money" traders in the precious metals market are gaming the ETFs. Working in concert, a syndicate could sell and sell short the ETFs while accumulating (into the resultant weakness) some targeted stocks. When this syndicate believes the cycle decline has bottomed out, they simply cover, and take profits on the ETF shorts and invest it further into their holdings.
In working closely with well-known media and talking head personalities, the tactics of the syndicate can effectively control the public, who we all know are trend followers. It's a shame this situation exists in capital markets to the extent it does. The regulators are doing little to ensure that a market is a price discovery mechanism. As I see it, it's become simply a crooked casino, and that goes for much more than precious metal stocks. You will find these tactics exist wherever the public's hot buttons can be pushed.
I think most of us would like to revert to investing based largely on fundamentals, where portfolios are turned over once every 1 to 3 years instead of 1 to 3 months. But it is what it is and, until we get stronger regulators, we have to deal with it.
I'll be writing in the WIR this weekend that as the broad market has been pumped up to 2007 cycle peak prices, there has been capital coming out of the higher risk precious metals as a matter of risk management. But I have always said that when the goldminers come off the dance floor, it is time to close the dance hall, that traders are tired and need a break. I think that in the short-term the high RSI's are unsustainable. Longer-term I think that the Bull returns fairly quickly and strongly as capital will come of of bonds and also come from off the sidelines as the econ data and QE programs click in.
So, after this next market dip for the precious metals, and the broad market, I think that prices will be ready to move to new highs.
Of course. It's rigged... Off to lovely Turlock Ca. for the weekend. Yeah, the ONLY reason to go there is soccer. On a plus side JB's coming up to watch one of the games.
Everyone is a trend follower. Without a trend there is no low to high longs or high to low shorts. So whenever I get it WRONG I should blame a 'syndicate'.
Not that markets aren't manipulated, but no body is bigger than the markets for long. Not even the Fed.
There is no doubt that the central bankers are crappy traders, but they don't really have to be good. They have the ability to game the system by jawboning markets (ala the latest Fed speak on ending T and mortgage backed security purchases) that has their desired effect. They can buy knowing they immunized the market against rising on their demand. At the same time their friends in India raise the import tax on gold cutting demand. No one knows what the Chinese are doing but there is plenty of talk about their foreign currency reserves while every major currency is being printed.
Lots of happy talk to bolster 'confidence' but still no real sign of actual growth.
So I don't think it's quite as straightforward as the CB's buying tops or bottoms. I wish it was, but there is more bullshiite out there than a feedlot.
Or the opposite: "The point to be made here is that each time the market has rallied the media, and analysts, try to attribute the rally to a fundamental support. In most cases the arguments boil down to"hope" more than "reality." However, what is really driving the current rally is likely far more simplistic: $85 billion a month."
And they'll do this for a small fraction of what NASA spent building a flying school bus:
"Deep Space Industries, a newly formed company, announced plans today, Jan. 22, to launch the world's first fleet of asteroid-hunting spacecraft to search for space rocks that can be harvested for precious metals and other resources.
The one-way prospecting trips will begin in 2015, CEO David Grump said at a press conference today. Three laptop-size spacecraft called FireFlies, each weighing about 55 pounds, will take pictures and samples from selected Near-Earth asteroids.
Beginning in 2016, larger spacecraft known as DragonFlies will be sent on three- to four-year round trip missions to pluck samples from asteroids and return them to Earth. The DragonFlies weigh about 70 pounds. "
For those of you who are thinking of catching the bottom in the miners, take a look at the 1-year chart of SLV. Now tell me: what are the chances that SLV drops now below its December low? I think the probability of that happening is greater than 0.5. Thus, I think the miners still have a big drop ahead of them. I am planning to start scaling into them when SLV drops below its December low.
AUMN is a different story. It has already reached a very important support level, and so buying it at that support is reasonable. Still, I canceled my previous buy limit at $3.50 and left only the buy limit at $3.40.
On the other hand, the all-time low on GDXJ was $18. It has 18-handle already. So just to get "a foot in the door", I have just placed a buy limit order for 5 January 2014 GDXJ $17 calls at $3.
Don Coxe, the BMO strategist who was one of the first to call the commodities boom and more realistic than most of the gold bulls:
We have recommended clients increase exposure to base metal stocks, and reduce gold equity exposure, because the Fear Factor that is so crucial for gold valuation is—at least for a few months and maybe even for a year or more—reduced significantly.
What will revalidate gold is that the debasement of bank balance sheets— private banks and central banks—and the inevitable increase in money supply growth as economies crawl out of their hammocks will almost certainly mean much higher gold prices eventually.
Also, liking Japan:
Buy Japanese stocks and sell shares of American and European competitors of the surviving Japanese global giants.
I'm having a hard time reconciling a long position with my bearish view of the market. AAPL does not trade contra to the broader indexes. The indexes will always pull back for better entries, and I'll reopen AAPL at that time. If it means reopening at a higher price, so be it.
ReplyDeleteMy wife picked up a coffee press at Mollie Stone's last week. It's our first time using one, and I would say the java is twice as strong. We're never going back to standard coffee makers.
ReplyDeleteFrench presses have better contact time and usually the water is just off of a boil which is the ideal temp. Strength is water to coffee ratio.
DeleteSome coffee makers use a 4 oz cup and others a 6 oz cup.
The rule of thumb (ignoring the manufacturers markings on the pot or press) is 1 SCAA scoop (two tbsp) coffee to 8 ounces of water.
That said, a French Press passes more essential oils (flavor). There are coffee makers that will do essentially the same thing with a stainless screen filter. I use a Technivorm Mocca Master with a stainless screen and it is comparable. The machine is expensive but easily the best made I have ever had, besides my espresso machine. Essentially bullet proof.
As soon as I'm am really up and running I'll send you some coffee that will blow your mind out of the press.
Thanks for the info. I just took a look at ours. It's a Bodum French Press.
DeleteSentiment seems really bullish here. AAII is just one measure, but >50%?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
I think that was smart 2nd. It's pretty common in my mind (just based on observation, no official info) that a stock will bounce a bit after a day like yesterday, but then continue down for days or weeks as all the selling get out. I imagine we'll see broker downgrades next week which will cause selling as well.
ReplyDeleteGood point, BB. I think we've all honed our self-preservation instincts over the years, and in the end they're distilled into 'unofficial' observations like yours.
DeleteNo doubt sentiment is bullish here, no doubt about it, but, as Sentimentrader recently said, that is to be expected given the run we've had and it doesn't seem too out of line.
ReplyDeleteBut you either need extreme sentiment (no buyers left) or something bad and unexpected to derail the market here I think.
JO - guys, I'm watching this one. SGG too.
ReplyDeleteI agree market LOOKS like it's gonna keep melting up, we all know that DOESN'T mean it will. Your guess is as good as mine, hopefully you own something that's still grossly under priced and may peace be with you.
Still no word from the pulpit. The possibility that gold would break to the downside was pointed out, so why not at least share strategies being taken? Checking in when things are going well is helpful. Checking in when things aren't going well is essential. IMO.
ReplyDelete"Checking in when things are going well is helpful. Checking in when things aren't going well is essential."
DeleteAbsolutely, concerning the latter. Gold goes back to $1500 you'll see "We sold the top tick" in the WIR.
Note in preliminary glance that essential metals like palladium aren't crashing, conclusion: "World isn't going to hell in hand basket". Banks selling gold GTFIn, banks buying up gold, GTFO?
Homestly, I find gold just boring these days. Seems to be in an endless trading range between $1,600 and $1,800. If you had a stock range trading between $16 and $18, you'd lose interest too.
DeleteMLNX - I don't think the earnings were good at all, they revised down again by a huge amount, said inventory had backed up and one of their (basically two) customers. I guess that would be either IBM or HPQ, most likely HPQ.
ReplyDeleteSo many paths to Palo Alto, it's amazing sometimes.
backed up "at" one of, not "and" one of. sorry
DeleteCould be a buy here though, based on my weak chart reading skills and yesterday's price action.
DeleteI might add this as a little sub layer to mu business...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ruckuswireless.com/
TVIX @ 4.81...
ReplyDeleteTZA @ 11.13...
ReplyDeleteSomeone remove the 'Kick Me' Post It from my jacket.
DeleteTVIX @ 4.69? Leave the Post It alone.
DeleteSo at least a word from behind the pulpit.
ReplyDeleteDeron- Excellent webinar last nite!
Submitted by papadynamite (381 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 09:30 #116944
Your analysis of the weakness in the gold stocks was spot on. I can see where such stocks such as MUX, AG, and EXK are in freefall and currently not even worth nibbling.
Gold down another -12.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just another fake out, but I sense the market is about to drop.
ReplyDeleteCPHD - Recovered all losses(initial move was wrong) and now green, that's a positive indicator, right?
ReplyDelete2 buy ratings with lower PT's came out. One was 39. Really?? That's not much upside.
Delete"That's not much upside."
DeleteAt least it's not a downside objective?
I'm not planning to buy CPHD anyway, don't want to, just want out of NSPH at flat pre-earnings if possible. If they keep it down then f'em, I'll take the risk & try to trade around it if the news disappoints.
Sooner or later market rolls over, I don't want to be long something that's regarded an "if" and refuses to move up when the selling binge kicks in (end of March?).
Damn, they're really bidding up large caps this morning.
ReplyDeleteARNA - I noticed the retail crowd was pumping this one a couple weeks ago near the recent top.
ReplyDeleteGDXJ 18 handle.
ReplyDeleteIt can't double until after it moves past $20, or perhaps it's gonna double from $10 instead? Two possibilities.
DeleteAGO - Strong resistance at $16.95, gonna need an earnings report to determine the outcome.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Watch this thing go(down), looks like it's time for some upside or are metals crashing again (Moly was on it's way to $12 last I checked TC website)? GGB down too, metals must be crashing.....
Nice to see das musculus sphincter pupillae führt is actually moving(slowly) in my favor.
AUMN $3.60, David's bid triggered on bottom tick?
ReplyDeleteMark, do you sometimes find yourself using lines like "Let's go down to our secret place." around those heavy gals?
ReplyDeleteWhat the F does that mean you crazy chicken!
DeleteAll right, at the close heavy ladies...
Re: Deron- Excellent webinar last nite!
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Deron Wagner (76 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 09:53 #116947 (in reply to #116944)
Hey Mr. Dynamite,
Thanks for your feedback. Glad you enjoyed the webinar.
Yeah, the breakdown in gold stocks could lead to another leg lower in the near-term. If looking to go long, would at least wait for next moving average support, and then you need the bullish reversal candle to signal entry point (for technical swing trading anyway).
By the way, in case anyone else wondering, we recorded the webinar and it will be available on our blog later this afternoon at: http://www.morpheustrading.com/blog
Have a great trading day everyone.
Deron
SNE. 'Nuff said.
ReplyDeleteI bought some (very small 250 shares) yesterday and sold it this AM for about a $230 profit.
DeleteI really need it to pull back....scary here. It keeps pumping out 5-6% a day, how long can that last? Maybe AAPL is helping it?
Right now the Nikkei just seems like an accident waiting to happen. Abe really turned the screws on the Yen. I don't really know how it all ends.
Delete2nd - it's a natural reversion trade. Can it go lower one day? sure. But it's going much higher. We all were in the boat and missed it. It's time to find the next trade.
DeleteA-F _ _ _ing Men!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/an-open-letter-to-mary-jo-white/
Just thinking of the possibilities for maximum torture....
ReplyDeleteMarket is weak this AM leading all the believers to start pulling bids/going short/hedging, then reverses course mid to late day sucking everyone in,covering, unhedging, then sells off Monday.
Call me extremely cynical.
Max pain> We sell off hard, leading newbie longs to jump ship. Then we reverse hard, forcing them to reenter at higher prices. Then we sell off hard and stay down- for a few weeks.
DeleteThis NIHD company is really intriguing to me. I bought more today at $7.05 and $7.09. When you guys get a chance read through their annual report about the amount of wireless spectrum they own down in Brazil/Peru/Argentina/Mexico. See if you can come up with prevailing market rates for it...I'm coming up with a number around $9 to $11 Billion for their wireless spectrum. They also have 7,000 cell phone towers. T-Mobile just got an offer for their 7k towers for $2 Billion:
ReplyDeletehttp://hothardware.com/News/TMobile-Receives-2-Billion-Bid-for-7000-Wireless-Towers/
They also have $2 Billion in cash.
It's trading at like 0.4 times book and book is undervalued based on the above info.
By comparison CLWR is trading at 2.5 times book. CLWR doesn't have a wireless operation that a buyer would have to deal with but not too long ago that wireless division was generating pretty substantial profits for NIHD.
This one could be a big winner just based on asset values and the mad scramble going on by T, DTV, DISH, V, S, etc to add spectrum in the US and abroad.
AAPL 442 and falling.
ReplyDeleteAAPL @ 440 and change. It's a safe bet it sees 43x.
ReplyDeletegold in freefall
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by tom sheepngoats (15 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 11:46 #116952
They shall fling their silver into the streets and cast aside their gold like filth... Ezek 7:19
They are doing that! Why should I not pick some up? Because when I've done so lately I get killed! My respect for PapaD grows by the minute.
"Max pain> We sell off hard, leading newbie longs to jump ship. Then we reverse hard, forcing them to reenter at higher prices. Then we sell off hard and stay down- for a few weeks."
ReplyDeleteI think the max pain trade is staying long.
we've been conditioned to expect selloffs for 13 years now so the max pain might just be higher higs.
Deletethe pullback comes when we get lower momentum readings and higher prices. i learned me lesson on this. we need a drop, then higher highs on lower readings...that's the start of something. almost every pullback comes after this. Look at AAPL for example. every intermediate high over the past few years came on diverging RSI readings.
DeleteRevenge of the buy-and-hold crowd.
DeleteGood writeup on market psychology talking about the same thing and why it may change now that everyone believes at:
Deletehttp://blog.haysadvisory.com/2013/01/it-takes-3-years-to-make-us-believers.html
Spot silver 31.30, spot gold 1661.
ReplyDeleteJOY and CAT are weak, what's going wrong, China?
ReplyDeleteJust looking at a review of AAPL's earnings on seekingalpha. 185 comments and the vast majority of people are still positive on the stock. I think we see a lot more selling as still too much hope in a company with declining fundamentals.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Stopped out @ $16.70
ReplyDeleteAAPL 437, GDXJ 18.82...
ReplyDeleteholy shit guys. my friend shot me a text to tell me to turn on CNBC just now. i turned it on to easily one of the best interviews i've ever heard. it was an on-air conversation between bill ackman and carl icahn and there were a couple of swears and i believe even a racial slur dropped during the interview. go on to cnbc.com in 30 minutes or so to listen to it. unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteYeah, read something about their feud on Bloomberg yesterday.
DeleteNo love lost there.
Bullish or bearish slant and did it make sense, is all I want to know.
DeleteThe rhetorical shelling heats up again between hedge fund icons Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, this...
DeleteFriday, January 25, 12:35 PM ET
The rhetorical shelling heats up again between hedge fund icons Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, this time with Mr. Icahn responding to yesterday's press release issued by Ackman commenting on their business dealings. To that end, Icahn retorts: "To get the record straight, I never asked Ackman to be my friend." He goes on to say that "Even if we were friends, I would never have invested with him because I believe he takes inordinate risks. Herbalife (HLF) I believe proves this point." HLF can turn out to be 'the mother of all short squeezes' Icahn warns, and selling short 20% of the company "leaves much to be questioned."
IOW Icahn is buying like a mo fo to squeeze Ackman.
DeleteAh, so which of the two is more trustworthy (maybe neither?), go that route.
DeleteHLF seems rather cheap, going back to $70?
DeleteSplit the difference, call it $64
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/icahn-says-no-respect-for-bill-ackman-after-herbalife-bet.html
DeleteI traded it for a few clams a while ago but I'm not going to start dancing between two rogue elephants.
DeleteTaking some JVA off here. More crazy.
ReplyDeleteI think this was a Jesse pick.
Nice, you entered around $8 if I recall.
Deleteyeah, I've made a few trades on it starting at 7.992 according to my broker.
DeleteJJC needs to hang onto $45.80
ReplyDeleteYesterday's SPX 1502.27-> today's 1502.26, is a .01 lower high?
Interest rates dropping today with the US 10 year at 1.93% and high quality bonds (LQD) also down - good for all the insurers and particularly the lifeco's. The surprise is that high yield bonds (HYG) continue upwards - not sure why.
ReplyDeleteGood thing is that the rates going up because the economy is getting better, not because of inflation fears. Ie. because of expected growth which would be good for the market, not stagflation which kills markets.
When I was selling my AUMN in bulk last week because I was sure I would see it under very $4 soon, why didn't I sell ALL OF IT??? In any case, my buy limit at $3.60 was triggered this morning for 1000 shares. I just placed buy limit orders for 1000 shares at $3.50 and $3.40. Have to replace those shares I sold between $4.30 and $4.40.
ReplyDelete1502.48, so much for the lower high....
ReplyDeleteAGO - Okay, I may have been faked out.....
COCO looks ready to rock and roll.
ReplyDeletedamn...same with CECO. education stocks look good.
DeleteCOCO looks like it may have further to go than DV
DeleteI'm seeing positive divergences on the weekly chart for PGH. gearing up...
ReplyDelete6 mo RSI of zero. It can only go up.
DeleteCould be a butt full of money migrates from TRP into PGH?
DeleteTo be short is the same as being wrong.
ReplyDeleteLook at PGM's move......
PAL prints a higher weekly low, $1.60 Too bad I don't trust management.
DeleteAAPL - Is trading this one similar to traversing Mt. Fuji-san?
ReplyDelete"Hideaki Kitajima, 51, rescue team chief at the Tokyo Mountaineering Federation, notes, "Beginner climbers should at least have high-quality shoes and rain apparel to make up for their lack of knowledge and experience."
Mt. Fuji's popularity as a climbing destination has grown since the mountain was included in the World Heritage interim list in 2007. In 2006, 220,000 climbers ascended the mountain. Last year, nearly 300,000 scaled the slopes.
Watanabe's concern regarding climber safety is well placed. Last year, there were 2,085 mountain accident victims across the nation, the worst annual figure ever recorded, according to the National Police Agency.
The Shizuoka prefectural government also plans to provide around-the-clock instructors at two of Mt. Fuji's three base stations. Their first target: underdressed climbers.
He teaches mountain accident rescue procedures at seminars organized by the federation several times a year."
Closed TZA @ 11.03.
ReplyDeleteClosed TVIX @ 4.72.
My mistake> 'playing' with the money I 'could have' lost on AAPL had I held on to it. Instead, I got played. So in place of the +few hundred in my balance this morning (selling AAPL @ 452 and change), I'm now down -110. It doesn't sound like much, but emotionally it's annoying as hell.
DeleteEspecially since I'm pretty sure both positions would have paid off big on Monday. On the other hand, had I held on, both positions would have kicked my --- on Monday. It's OK. I usually get nicked a few times in succession prior to each big score.
DeleteSee yesterdays Moody Blues youtube. See saw..... Very hard to game the market at this point unless you are picking basing patterns. ST big blue arrow is sideways, momentum is non-existent.
Deletefor S & G's I looked at 6 mos SPY rsi....99.99.
DeleteAlright, next question. Are miners due for a bounce?
ReplyDeleteSpot silver 31.16!
ReplyDeletei don't see anything chart wise that says silver is good here. in no mans land.
DeleteAlright, here's my take. Next Monday, the 'selloff' traders are looking for will....not materialize! Instead, miners will join the rest of the market in taking the indexes to new 52-wk highs.
Deletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/gold-4/#more-86602
DeleteBuy weakness, sell strength. This does work for, and it's the only way to trade PM's IMO, unfortunately weakness has a tendency to snowball while rolling downhill (That's how it worked for me).
DeleteTVIX 4.80. Riiiight.
ReplyDeleteDid you guys look at the photo of Icahn in the Bloomberg link I posted.
ReplyDeleteCan we get one of those death bets going, that guy looks done. Just sayin'.
Handsome fellow, better looks than moi. No scoffing at the quality antiques!
DeleteGun to head> I don't think miners have reached the puke threshold.
ReplyDeleteJumping in right now is too easy.
DeleteEven sista bloggers are still buying.
DeleteI'm agree (see above post) ;)
DeleteYes, well the sixth sense did in fact sense blog destruction. I should give it the benefit of the doubt.
DeleteWe have yet to see a 'jump the Sharkie' moment over there.
DeleteWhen one of the followers questions Jim Jones and he goes for the kool aide it will be close...
Agreed. Looking forward to the weekend write up.
Delete----! If I'd only waited it could have been a +few hundred day.
ReplyDeleteActually, I should have exited the positions a few minutes after opening them for even better gains.
DeleteMax pain indeed, as shorts slow to exit get squeezed in the final minutes.
ReplyDeleteBoth the XAU and GDXJ closed at the lows of the day. This sets up a capitulation day on Monday should prices start to trigger margin calls.
ReplyDeleteAs a long time
DeleteSubmitted by MCP (2 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 15:53 #116966
holder of many gold stocks, am I wrong in thinking, in general, the lower these go; when they reverse the higher they are going to go? Inverse relationship.
I'm not selling, I just hope the pain is worth it.
And thank you Bill and Geoff for all you do.
That's not capitulation.
Deleteor it's stupidity or endurance. Hard to tell.
DeleteGotta give kudos to Jesse here. He said to sell.
Look at TBT. Not that anything will move in straight lines, but it looks like interest rates are going up, T's down and gold down.....so far.
Holy ----. TZA bidding 10.99 after hours.
ReplyDeletebought 1,000 shares of DMND before the close at 13.76 for only 1 reason: it's one of the few short squeeze plays left that hasn't squeezed. i wanted to keep the position small in the event it doesn't yet if it does do a moon shot i will be proud to say i have it. TZOO inspired me to take this position.
ReplyDeleteCPHD - LOL!
ReplyDelete1503.26 top, how cute. 1505 must be on it's way.
ReplyDeleteRe: As a long time
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (3870 comments) on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 16:29 #116968 (in reply to #116966)
MCP,
If there were a fundamental reason for precious metals stocks to fall the way they have this week and recently then there would be a basis for not anticipating that following a trend reversal the prices would go even higher. In fact, without the fundamentals in place, the subsequent bull phases would be disappointing. We refer to those situations as "cycle failures".
However, what is disappointing in this environment is that the fundamentals are in place to have higher prices for the precious metals stocks and in fact to expect even higher prices at the peak of the next cycle.
What is happening I believe is that dominant "hot money" traders in the precious metals market are gaming the ETFs. Working in concert, a syndicate could sell and sell short the ETFs while accumulating (into the resultant weakness) some targeted stocks. When this syndicate believes the cycle decline has bottomed out, they simply cover, and take profits on the ETF shorts and invest it further into their holdings.
In working closely with well-known media and talking head personalities, the tactics of the syndicate can effectively control the public, who we all know are trend followers. It's a shame this situation exists in capital markets to the extent it does. The regulators are doing little to ensure that a market is a price discovery mechanism. As I see it, it's become simply a crooked casino, and that goes for much more than precious metal stocks. You will find these tactics exist wherever the public's hot buttons can be pushed.
I think most of us would like to revert to investing based largely on fundamentals, where portfolios are turned over once every 1 to 3 years instead of 1 to 3 months. But it is what it is and, until we get stronger regulators, we have to deal with it.
I'll be writing in the WIR this weekend that as the broad market has been pumped up to 2007 cycle peak prices, there has been capital coming out of the higher risk precious metals as a matter of risk management. But I have always said that when the goldminers come off the dance floor, it is time to close the dance hall, that traders are tired and need a break. I think that in the short-term the high RSI's are unsustainable. Longer-term I think that the Bull returns fairly quickly and strongly as capital will come of of bonds and also come from off the sidelines as the econ data and QE programs click in.
So, after this next market dip for the precious metals, and the broad market, I think that prices will be ready to move to new highs.
Of course. It's rigged...
DeleteOff to lovely Turlock Ca. for the weekend. Yeah, the ONLY reason to go there is soccer. On a plus side JB's coming up to watch one of the games.
Ciao.
Everyone is a trend follower. Without a trend there is no low to high longs or high to low shorts. So whenever I get it WRONG I should blame a 'syndicate'.
DeleteNot that markets aren't manipulated, but no body is bigger than the markets for long. Not even the Fed.
Note: Don't eat the jello.
Will JB be biking to Turlock to watch the game?
DeleteVia Yosemite no doubt!
DeleteAll is fair in love and war. And there's no war quite like the daily battles in the capital markets.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2013/01/25/sp-500-threatens-breakout/
ReplyDeleteYou wanna know who the 'syndicate' is?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100022332/a-new-gold-standard-is-being-born/
"central banks around the world bought more bullion last year in terms of tonnage than at any time in almost half a century."
DeleteThey're buying the top, last time they sold marked the bottom, no?
There is no doubt that the central bankers are crappy traders, but they don't really have to be good. They have the ability to game the system by jawboning markets (ala the latest Fed speak on ending T and mortgage backed security purchases) that has their desired effect. They can buy knowing they immunized the market against rising on their demand. At the same time their friends in India raise the import tax on gold cutting demand. No one knows what the Chinese are doing but there is plenty of talk about their foreign currency reserves while every major currency is being printed.
DeleteLots of happy talk to bolster 'confidence' but still no real sign of actual growth.
So I don't think it's quite as straightforward as the CB's buying tops or bottoms. I wish it was, but there is more bullshiite out there than a feedlot.
http://www.businessinsider.com/lance-roberts-visible-hand-of-the-fed-2013-1
ReplyDeleteMedia is controlling our thoughts, constantly telling us to sell while markets continue moving higher?
DeleteOr the opposite: "The point to be made here is that each time the market has rallied the media, and analysts, try to attribute the rally to a fundamental support. In most cases the arguments boil down to"hope" more than "reality." However, what is really driving the current rally is likely far more simplistic: $85 billion a month."
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/bridgewater-s-dalio-sees-game-changer-as-money-shifts.html
ReplyDeleteAnd they'll do this for a small fraction of what NASA spent building a flying school bus:
ReplyDelete"Deep Space Industries, a newly formed company, announced plans today, Jan. 22, to launch the world's first fleet of asteroid-hunting spacecraft to search for space rocks that can be harvested for precious metals and other resources.
The one-way prospecting trips will begin in 2015, CEO David Grump said at a press conference today. Three laptop-size spacecraft called FireFlies, each weighing about 55 pounds, will take pictures and samples from selected Near-Earth asteroids.
Beginning in 2016, larger spacecraft known as DragonFlies will be sent on three- to four-year round trip missions to pluck samples from asteroids and return them to Earth. The DragonFlies weigh about 70 pounds. "
Finally, a useful NASA project.
Delete"That's not capitulation."
ReplyDeleteRotation might be the correct definition; patsy, eeeh... patron rotation.
For those of you who are thinking of catching the bottom in the miners, take a look at the 1-year chart of SLV. Now tell me: what are the chances that SLV drops now below its December low? I think the probability of that happening is greater than 0.5. Thus, I think the miners still have a big drop ahead of them. I am planning to start scaling into them when SLV drops below its December low.
ReplyDeleteAUMN is a different story. It has already reached a very important support level, and so buying it at that support is reasonable. Still, I canceled my previous buy limit at $3.50 and left only the buy limit at $3.40.
DeleteOn the other hand, the all-time low on GDXJ was $18. It has 18-handle already. So just to get "a foot in the door", I have just placed a buy limit order for 5 January 2014 GDXJ $17 calls at $3.
DeleteDon Coxe, the BMO strategist who was one of the first to call the commodities boom and more realistic than most of the gold bulls:
ReplyDeleteWe have recommended clients increase exposure to base metal stocks, and reduce gold equity exposure, because the Fear Factor that is so crucial for gold valuation is—at least for a few months and maybe even for a year or more—reduced significantly.
What will revalidate gold is that the debasement of bank balance sheets— private banks and central banks—and the inevitable increase in money supply growth as economies crawl out of their hammocks will almost certainly mean much higher gold prices eventually.
Also, liking Japan:
Buy Japanese stocks and sell shares of American and European competitors of the surviving Japanese global giants.