I don't think Icahn was at his best when he called in. Someone should have stopped him at the checkpoint.
Well, at least we don't need one here. Whenever I read (or sense) that someone's had a little too much to drink, my only response is 'Who hasn't?' Trading can be brutal.
Luckily I waited until later to have a couple of margs. Stone cold sober while posting. Bummer, huh?
ReplyDeleteI felt exhausted after yesterday's session for some reason, it was just lackluster and tedious. It started right with SNE jumping, but then it was a fight to keep it with my other positions.
Jo looks like it might actually begin moving up, I don't really care much for commodity ETF's peddling futures but have you guys fondled this chart yet?
DeleteHave a small position.
DeleteSo I've got positions in coffee and pot.
Both are legal here....
One of my worst days. Eight hours in front of the PC watching paint dry, with nothing to show for it.
ReplyDelete"We have recommended clients increase exposure to base metal stocks"
ReplyDeleteOkay, so assuming base metals do begin a spectacular run, is it logical to consider the possibility base metal miners may suffer the same fate PM miners have?
I think the pm's were specifically targeted with fed speak.
DeleteI don't think they care of they get inflation anywhere else, I think they want that.
But they don't want you to be able to hedge using something that isn't stimulative.
I figure since insiders were selling publicly owned gold, presumably to their privately owned trust funds, at the bottom, those same insiders are now selling those trust fund PM holdings back to the public institutions they manage.
DeleteCentral banks are buying gold now (at the top?), those same central banks were selling gold (just prior to the run up).
Who was on the other end of the trade, friends and family?
Maybe, but if that so why now? It's clearly not the top. We are on top of a good deal of support (supply) below this point. If they were going to do that they would have done it at 1900. I think it's the Fed. Volcker writes how he should have never let gold get to the $800's and I think the Fed is doing the same thing, keeping gold from getting too frothy.
DeleteThey don't actually have to do anything but talk to do it. Just mention (as they did) that they will stop buying debt (to the tune of 80 billion a month) and the liquidity driving pm's looks like it will end. Time to prepare for the short bond trade...or so everyone thinks.
" If they were going to do that they would have done it at 1900."
DeleteI've been reading for over a year now about central banks buying gold, the insider cartel accumulated over a period of time and they'll be distributing over a period of time?
"I think the Fed is doing the same thing, keeping gold from getting too frothy."
That's what I thought for a long time as well, and they may have, except that would be contrary to the theory of central bank insiders maximizing gains from their manufactured crisis.
I'm not short since I don't know what their plans are for certain or if this concept is even correct. Thus, I've shifted my attention to other options outside the realm of PM's.
I'll say this though, I'm certainly glad I capitulated on my PM mining positions before becoming completely wiped out. Can't imagine riding the SVM Kool-Aid train from $9.35 to $4.25.
I'll admit I would've have done well in ST and made my losses back had I stuck with SWC from my $9 entry, though.
"It's clearly not the top."
DeleteYou had me scratching both ends on that one. You're absolutely correct, it clearly isn't.
ACAS - And so what do I know? Well, I sold this one 9/16/09 @ $3.45, today it's $13
ReplyDeleteInteresting take on why miners have gone downhill for the past five years despite soaring prices for gold bullion.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1133931-gold-stocks-are-a-minefield-pun-intended?source=yahoo
Meanwhile per finviz, the PE of ABX is less than half that of GG
DeleteGG has good growth prospects whereas ABX is having a tough time finding big enough projects to replace their declining production. That's why ABX made the copper purchase.
Delete"declining production"
DeleteRight, sometimes I wonder how much of that comes from prioritizing lower quality ore bodies. Regardless, price/earnings is certainly a lagging indicator.
Arrogance is inevitably punished:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mercenarytrader.com/2013/01/lessons-in-hubris-from-the-herbalife-spectacle/
EMPHASIZE RISK CONTROL, MISTAKES, AND SURVIVAL.
DeletePaul Tudor Jones: “…at the end of the day, the most important thing is how good you are at risk control. Ninety percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.”
Michael Steinhardt: “One of the advantages of trading the way I do — being a long-term investor, short-term trader, individual stock selector, market timer, sector analyst — is that I have made so many decisions and mistakes that it has made me wise beyond my years as an investor.”
Ray Dalio: “Anyone who has been involved in the markets knows that you can never be absolutely confident. There is never a trade that you know you are right on. If you approach trading that way, then you will always be looking at where you mght be wrong. You don’t have a false confidence. You value what you don’t know.”
And last but not least, Howard Marks: “Sun Tzu said if you sit by the river long enough, you’ll see the bodies of your enemies float by. The key is “long enough.” If you live long enough, you have to be the survivor… if you look at distressed debt where we started in 1988, I could tell you who our number one competitor was in every year through 1995 and not one is a main competitor today. And it’s not because of what we did; all we did is perform consistently. They crapped out. It sounds simplistic to say, but the first requirement for success is survival…”
Here's to Bill Miller, John Paulson, John Hussman, and a few others we know well> 'It's OK to admit it when you ---- up, guys.'
ReplyDeleteDon't worry, three years from now they'll be crowing about how they were long every bottom tick during the bull market and shorted every top tick.
DeleteKGC - I sold this one 4/22/09 @ $14.62, today it's $8.53
ReplyDeleteSo the obvious answer is to do the opposite of what BC says he's doing.
KGC - I was in for just one day and lost $17
DeleteARNA - Knockout play? I rather expected the gap up from $4 would be closed, but that $5 support has held a couple times. This week was bad, as pumpers were touting the weight loss drug that has yet to be approved, makes me wonder if someone wanted out and so pumped while dumping?
ReplyDeleteRetail pumped at the high, the volume spiked and share price fell, LOL
GMO - I guess this one should be a pretty good vehicle for exposure to base metals, was just expecting a dilution entry opportunity.
ReplyDeleteI kind of like these mid caps / big caps that have fallen recently:
ReplyDeleteCOH
CTRP
IACI
NILE
COH - I really like this chart from an island reversal perspective, betcha that Aug gap up from $50 doesn't even close but would present opportunity to begin adding if it were to.
DeleteCTRP - Man, it looks like TSHTF in China or something last couple of days, with JOY/CAT/Metal miners GGB/GMO/TCK/TC/SCCO/JJC almost looking toppy and ready to roll over.
Incredible how so many were anticipating extended weakness all December and the market proved them completely wrong come the new year.
So are we now witnessing complete complacency? Sequestration on 3/1/13, only 32 days away, followed by the Continuing Resolution on 3/27/13, then the Debt Ceiling limit comes into play again mid-May. It might only require one hiccup from China or somewhere to kick-start a bout of profit taking and renewed wave of concern? Are we simply benefiting from flight of capital out of Greece, Spain and Italy, and what happens if Spain reverses course deciding to request bailouts, will our market stall as capital flows back to Europe, or would a bailout provide further fuel for the next leg up?
I lean towards further upside but man I need to get this right as NSPH has been my proverbial stick in the mud lately just as PM miners were the past couple years. It really sucks going from one stick in the mud after another.
Rocky and Bullwinkle deja-vu, I need someone to beat me with an f'in lucky stick!
CAT - This one reports in the morning, I bet the perceived weakness is profit taking ahead of CAT earnings in case of disappointing news.
ReplyDeleteProbably many folks are wondering how China can maintain growth with Europe having one foot in the depressionary quick sand?
Is CYD gonna roll over here if CAT disappoints?
CAT - Looks as though this lil' kitty took one on the chin last earnings, and there are two gaps up in the chart since. hmmm....
ReplyDeleteAUY - I woulda had a double on this one, bought 6/22/09 and sold two days later.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys! Hope everyone had a great weekend. Great soccer and good to catch up with JB!
ReplyDeleteSay hello to JB!
DeleteI did for everyone buddy.
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ReplyDelete