IMO, trading is no longer the comparatively sedate activity it was just a few years ago. In 2006, when Craig and I would banter on the sister blog, we were able to open positions and 'watch' them play out (or not) over the course of the day. Now I open positions and paranoia sets in immediately.
2006 was 3 years into a bull market and probably 5 or 6 into a rock star commodity bull market, so the fact you were feeling more comfortable then than now is probably a good thing, meaning that the market now still has more upside as people still haven't been convinced to jump in yet.
Jan 28 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it will tie up with Kinder Morgan Inc to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a terminal near Savanna, Ga...
Co announces it has posted an open letter from Chairman and CEO addressing the class action law suits. In the letter, co states: "...The claims in the proposed class actions are based on false statements made in blogs published by internet blogger Jon Carnes on alfredlittle.com in September 2011. Both the Company and I have denied the allegations made by Mr. Carnes in his blog, and have responded in full on numerous occasions, including immediately after the publication of Mr. Carnes' blogs in September 2011...Given the serious nature of the allegations made by Mr. Carnes and the harmful effect his unfounded blogs have had on the Company and our shareholders, the Company had no alternative but to commence action against Mr. Carnes and his related entities for defamation in the United States...The proposed class actions do not rely on any new events or new facts; rather, they simply reiterate the same false claims put forward by self-interested short sellers who intended to manipulate Silvercorp's share price and harm the Company and its shareholders..."
Got a Brother Wireless Laser at BestBuy for $99. Black and white only, but good enough for us. If someone wants to print pictures, do it at Costco or Walmart. Fast, lots of prints from a cartridge, no drying out or "head cleaning" to waste ridiculously priced ink. HP saying new ink-jets are priced competitive with laser and maybe they are, but if you print infrequently, laser is the definitely way to go.
Have the inkjet cartridges refilled at Costco. Cheap. If you are on a surge protector/powerbar like I am, make sure you turn your printer off before powering down. But then again, I print a lot of color (labels) so it's worth it.
"2006 was 3 years into a bull market and probably 5 or 6 into a rock star commodity bull market, so the fact you were feeling more comfortable then than now is probably a good thing, meaning that the market now still has more upside as people still haven't been convinced to jump in yet."
Couldn't have said it better myself. I was thinking over the past several days how we have been conditioned to expect the selloffs. Shit in 2010, 2011, and 2012 we had 10%+ pullbacks and several 5%+ pullbacks. Most of the stocks we were gung ho on at one point have come back to our original entry point and then some. So we're fully conditioned to expect pullbacks and "trade" stuff. What happens if this is a buy and hold year? Who amongst us is expecting that? Maybe Laz is right.
I think it's more like 14 but that's kind of the point i guess. if we do happen to get continued steady improvement in housing/jobs then at some point investors will be like f*ck it why are we waiting? its at 14 times earnings and it got to 17 last bull market. that alone is enough to move it to 1700 as long as earnings stay ok.
Just as I suspected...the move down in DMND was an attempt to shake it out one last time before the real move to $20 begins...at least that's my bet. If it gets over $14.5 it could very well run higher. I'm long from around $13.8 on Friday. Let's see if it can finally get things going.
Insiders have doubled down according to the finviz numbers assuming they can be trusted which is always a huge IF for some reason, from roughly ~$3m to ~$6m
DMND should adopt the AMZN model immediately, IMO.
I thought cb exited RBY with his 12/19 post. I would still recommend selling even now. To bet it all on one stock increases the odds that you will sell at the absolute low, when you can't take it any longer- ie, the exact point at which it reverses.
It looks like TVIX might have made a bottom at $4.7 over the past few days. So I just bought 1000 more shares at $5.05. Now I am thinking whether or not to place a sell stop at $4.7 for all my shares -- any ideas?
Added to DMND at $14.18 and $14.25 (avg of $14.1). Why? Because it was the hard trade to make. I think it has a decent chance to go to at least $20. My position is still small but big picture is this is down from $90 and it's right around all time lows.
NIHD you hit that one just right. There was some guy on Bloomberg on Friday with an interesting chart ( was trying to get it but can't find it) point is that small caps do better in FEB than any other month.
David- I don't know. And that's why I would be taking gains here. We're all wrong much of the time, maybe even most of the time. I've survived the past few years by taking losses quickly, and in many cases by cashing in gains quickly. This has not been a market that treats indecision kindly. And until it proves o/w, I will continue with very ST trades.
I see our "sister blog" has adopted a good strategy: instead of speaking about gold now, Bill in his WIR was congratulating himself on his call of S&P being ready to rally in mid-November. This morning, Geoff had also decided not to talk about gold and instead focused on S&P being ready for a pullback "in the weeks go come." He can't be wrong with this call. :)
Think of the people who gave him money to run because of his expertise and his ability to trade the juniors on this wisdom. Later he switches his thesis that this sector is a buy and hold and he will no longer be trading it but sitting for a 3 to 5 year cycle. Yikes, I would of pulled my money out on that switch if I had given him any.
He may still be right on the cycle but the pain is heavy.
They could triple readership by detailing every wrong call with tick-by-tick comments on how they manage each one. Now that would truly be revolutionary. Not to mention helpful.
I see that FXY (the Yen) is up slightly today, but SNE is ignoring that strength. So I am thinking that the large move down in Yen is not fully priced into SNE yet. So, for the hell of it, I just bought 500 shares of SNE at $15.09. This will, naturally, cause a large pullback in SNE, which will allow me to buy more call options on it at cheaper prices and really make money. :)
Also, I looked at the January 2014 calls on GDXJ and GDX and saw that slightly in-the-money GDX calls are actually a better deal, as they will almost triple if GDX rises back to its September highs, while slightly in-the-money GDXJ calls will a little more than double if GDXJ rises back to its September high. So I just bought 3 contracts of January 2014 $40 GDX calls at $5.55.
SNE rose today above its July highs, so the 1-year chart suggests conclusively that the long-term downtrend is over. So if SNE pulls back now, it will simply be a great buying opportunity.
I could make a case for staying in cash pending a significant correction. Sitting on the sidelines is a time-honored trading strategy, one not often mentioned.
Although, gold did lead the last pullback IIRC, so maybe rinse and repeat? I still think rotation should be the theme but who nose..... Rising rates equals capital migrating somewhere or has the FED simply let off the gas for a few days to keep the market from zooming to the moon?
David- Why do you insist on disregarding every painful lesson the market inflicts?
(a) Stops. Take losses quickly when you're wrong. (b) Options. The vast majority of positions expire worthless. (c) Position size. Don't put it all into one stock.
I'm prone to repeating mistakes. I know I'll keep making mistakes. That's human nature, and I accept that. But I make it a point to exit bad positions immediately upon recognition.
It really is all mental. Less than 5% of trading success is research and analysis, IMO. The rest is understanding crowd behavior and one's own psychology.
short selling ban on banks in greece. NBG should be in play very soon.
NEWS: ATHENS--Net lending to Greek businesses and households in December shrank 4% compared with the same period last year, as demand for bank loans continued to slide, data released by the Bank of Greece Monday show. The decline was slightly smaller than the 4.6% drop recorded in November. According to the data, the monthly net flow of loans to Greece's private sector fell by 152 million euros ( $606.5 billion ) compared with a year earlier, while the total amount of credit outstanding fell to EUR227.7 billion in December. Net lending to households fell by EUR13 million in December after declining EUR224 million in November. The net flow of credit to businesses contracted by EUR25 million from a year ago and compared with a EUR343 million contraction in August. Greek banks have restricted the flow of credit since the start of the country's financial crisis as they attempt to deleverage and cope with liquidity shortages and a rise in non-performing loans.
ATHENS --Greek bank deposits rose for a fourth consecutive month in December, as the country's greater political stability during the last months helped to underpin confidence in the sector. The Greek central bank said Monday that total deposits held by domestic residents and companies rose by 5.5 billion euros ( $7.4 billion ) in November to EUR161.36 billion from EUR155.89 billion in November. Deposits started rising in July by EUR3.3 billion , after months of steady decline, as repeat elections on June 17 produced a three-party governing coalition, which prompted relief for savers, while there was a small decrease in August mainly due to the fact that Greeks had to pay their taxes at the end of the fiscal year. Since the elections, EUR11.3 billion have returned to Greek banks. Greek banks have suffered a steady decline in deposits since the start of the country's debt crisis in late 2009, which prompted depositors to withdraw cash and transfer funds to overseas banks. Greece's recession has also forced many households and businesses to draw down their deposits. In the past two years, the banking system has lost about one-third of its deposit base, with monthly deposit outflows generally averaging between EUR2 billion and EUR3 billion a month, but outflows have risen even more at times of political uncertainty and speculation over a possible Greek exit from the euro. Deposits by households and businesses with Greek banks grew strongly in the years after Greece joined the euro in 2001, peaking at around EUR238 billion in September 2009 , according to Greek central bank figures. Fears of financial meltdown led to a steady outflow from the end of 2009, with private-sector bank deposits falling to EUR220 billion in May 2010 , the month Greece received the first of its two European-led bailouts. In March 2012 , when Greece received its second bailout, deposits had fallen to EUR165.4 billion . About a third of the funds withdrawn from banks have gone abroad, the Greek central bank estimates. One reason for this, analysts say, is fear of a crackdown on tax evasion, a chronic problem in Greece and one of the key sources of the country's current fiscal mess. The balance of deposits held in Greek banks at the end of 2011 fell to EUR174.2 billion , a decline of 16.8% from EUR209.6 billion in 2010.
"ATHENS --Greek bank deposits rose for a fourth consecutive month in December"
This blows me away, I just read not two days ago(on the internet) a Greece/Spain/Italy bank run was in progress. I guess this came from the bearish camp and was simply more unproven, contrived BS.
Anyway, rising bank deposits makes sense from the perspective our market is currently rising, while the opposite would apply during our deep sell offs; that is banks were pulling money out of the market (Perhaps they were being forced to make good on deposits that were being withdrawn at the time?) and now they're placing these deposits back into the market.
I'm still convinced they're(banks) never on the right side of the trade, and we should have just kept buying as they were selling. In 20-20 hindsight, BB probably did this best, from what I can tell.
that's a pretty bearish looking chart for AMZN huh? it has had similar moves like that over the past couple of years and it went on to make decent losses over the next couple of weeks.
Miners are back to last summer's lows, and the decline has been swift. If GDXJ were to rocket +10% tomorrow, it would still be below my mid-January exit @ 20.47.
Thus the odds of a 'washout' decline have increased, IMO. Anyone who has opened positions since late July is now underwater. They are ticks away from clicking the Sell button. Should the sector gap down on Tuesday, they'll be hard-pressed not to run for the exits.
"David- Why do you insist on disregarding every painful lesson the market inflicts?
(a) Stops. Take losses quickly when you're wrong. (b) Options. The vast majority of positions expire worthless. (c) Position size. Don't put it all into one stock."
2nd_ave -- even though it may not be noticeable, but I am learning. :) For example, recall how I bought 1K shares of SIL two weeks ago, thinking that it will follow silver on the way up? Well, I placed a sell stop just below the support at $22, and last week I was promptly stopped out. That's an example of me using stops.
As for an example of (b) and (c), I sold a large chunk of my AUMN position at $4.30-$4.40, the day they announced a production delay. Since then, I have rotated some of that money into SNE (today) and also into GDX calls (today). I purchased 1-year calls so as to give the miners plenty of time to have a rebound and also diversified away from my favorite stock and even from the whole junior mining space.
If you are thinking about my TVIX position -- that is a separate story. At this point VIX futures are so low, that they don't really have any room to fall. The only thing that will hurt TVIX is the rollover risk, which is less than 10% per month now. I would have *definitely* used stops on TVIX if VIX was near or above 20, since in that case substantial declines in volatility would still be possible. Not now though...
Submitted by cheapy (521 comments) on Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:49 #117018
Shows what a fool I am to own it. I hate my life. I guess I'm just gullible. And is appears mining, in general, ALL of them, are just worthless from a shareholder perspective.
I don't know how, if ever I'll make the losses back. I no longer have any hope.
Well, at least he didn't buy it on margin, using funds borrowed from credit cards, and did not use out-of-the-money call options, as I did with AUMN...
Same trap that get's some many people, Oh its going to 12 and I'll make a million. It seems that only happens to Larry Williams types of guys and than they spend the rest of their lives selling seminars on how you can do it to.
This whole business is set up to fleece the unsuspecting and when you understand that game they "VIG" a slow death to you
INTC - Pretty high volume on this one lately could be another island reversal setup? The inverse could be true as well I guess, could be preparing for another leg down. Remember CSCO?
Here is the conclusion from this article: "We’ve been patient with the miners and have held an ample cash position ready to put to work. We plan to do so this week as the major lows are tested."
Isn't it true that what everyone expects in the market does not happen? So my latest thinking is that the July lows in gold, silver and miners WILL NOT BE tested. The prices will reverse soon, and folks that were waiting to buy at the lows will start chasing the price up.
Re AGO, earnings days almost always aren't a big deal when you are trading a stock being valued more on assets than earnings. I'd be surprised if it moved much more than normal unless something other than the EPS info is announced.
Re SNE, I think pullbacks will be fairly small in this stock making it hard to get in as there appears to be a lot of interest, so even a 2 - 3% pullback may be enough for buyers.
Finally, regarding the miners, I agree with CC, why trade or invest in miners at this time? There are so many easier places to invest like industrials, financials, anything housing related, real estate, transports, etc. They are going up, haven't just had a 12 year huge bull, and have economic tailwinds.
Miners have pretty much the worst charts in the markets and, sure you can try and pick the bottoms for a trade, but they are generally nowhere near a good long term buying bottom. Even though a stock like Goldcorp is down from $55 to $35, it was a $2 stock 13 years ago.
I own a little bit of some very cheap, small mining related stocks in case I am wrong (because you never know for sure), but really not an area for spending a lot of time.
Got Random Thoughts? "The Ps stalled a bit on Monday but it's not the end of the world. So far, their persistent trend/breakout remains intact. Ideally, I'd like to see them continue higher before they have a meaningful correction. This is because if they begin to correct now, it could suggests a false breakout.
As usual, take things one day at a time.
Once again, with the notable exceptions of Gold and Silver, the sector action remains impressive. Most sectors, like the Ps, remain at or near new highs.
So what do we do? With another flat-ish type of day, nothing changes. Honor your stops on existing longs just in case and continue to enjoy the ride as long as it continues. On new positions, again, I hate buying into an overbought market. The good news is that since I'm a pullback trader, I'm not seeing many setups at this juncture (except in issues that can trade contra to the indices) and likely won't until the market corrects a bit. For now, continue to focus on those issues that can trade contra to the indices such as Selected commodities (e.g. Rare Earths), speculative technology issues like the Solars, and selected IPOs. I haven't completely forgotten about the short side just yet. Here, I like the big cap issues that have lost steam as of late. As I preach, these previous high fliers could be a source of funds* if the market continues to rally and if the market sells off, the bigger they are, the harder they will fall. Said alternatively, I think these issues can trade contra to the overall market too.
At the risk of preaching: No matter what you do, continue to take things one day at a time and practice proper money and position management-honor your stops on existing positions and wait for entries on new ones. You'd be surprised how far those two things will go towards keeping you in the game for a long time.
Futures are soft pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Dave Landry
*For existing players holding them from much lower levels-see my webcasts, I often discuss this. Also see the "Go Go No Mo" article on my website for more on what happens when a prior winner loses steam.
Spot silver hit 30.7x within the past hour.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ back to a 21 handle.
ReplyDeleteDoes any of this matter? Nah. TVIX hasn't budged.
ReplyDeleteWe could all have made +50% (as of this morning) on tof's call to buy SNE. Not one of us was able to follow through.
ReplyDeleteIMO, trading is no longer the comparatively sedate activity it was just a few years ago. In 2006, when Craig and I would banter on the sister blog, we were able to open positions and 'watch' them play out (or not) over the course of the day. Now I open positions and paranoia sets in immediately.
ReplyDelete2006 was 3 years into a bull market and probably 5 or 6 into a rock star commodity bull market, so the fact you were feeling more comfortable then than now is probably a good thing, meaning that the market now still has more upside as people still haven't been convinced to jump in yet.
DeleteI miss being able to buy gold fields in the pre market and sell it end of day, wash, rinse, repeat.....
DeleteCAT beats, shorts run for cover? Hard to justify being in T's, run towards equiites?
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Off 8% LOL, I have no idea if NG remains plentiful but my guess would be more yes than no as long as oil's bumping $100
ReplyDeleteUNG 18.60. That's -4.7%.
ReplyDeleteJan 28 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it will tie up with Kinder Morgan Inc to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a terminal near Savanna, Ga...
ReplyDeleteTons of fun in Turlock, who knew!!!, great time catching up with the MB family. Kendra played fantastic, what a fun time.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what's going on, call me disoriented.
ReplyDeleteJNK/LQD Are there short ETF vehicles for these?
JNK - This thing's gonna roll over.
LQD - Already has formed it's descending channel.
UNG/etc - You know these are gonna snap back.
ReplyDeleteSVM
ReplyDeleteCo announces it has posted an open letter from Chairman and CEO addressing the class action law suits. In the letter, co states: "...The claims in the proposed class actions are based on false statements made in blogs published by internet blogger Jon Carnes on alfredlittle.com in September 2011. Both the Company and I have denied the allegations made by Mr. Carnes in his blog, and have responded in full on numerous occasions, including immediately after the publication of Mr. Carnes' blogs in September 2011...Given the serious nature of the allegations made by Mr. Carnes and the harmful effect his unfounded blogs have had on the Company and our shareholders, the Company had no alternative but to commence action against Mr. Carnes and his related entities for defamation in the United States...The proposed class actions do not rely on any new events or new facts; rather, they simply reiterate the same false claims put forward by self-interested short sellers who intended to manipulate Silvercorp's share price and harm the Company and its shareholders..."
This all sounds so familiar.
DeleteExactly! It's like they just reused the last letter.
DeleteTraded TVIX from 4.98 to 5.10...
ReplyDeleteDone with that trade.
SLW @ 33.88...
ReplyDeleteBPOP @26.79, target $30 (swing trade)
ReplyDeleteWow, gutsy trade. Good luck.
DeleteAt the close ladies!
GDXJ @ 18.58...
ReplyDeleteSolar version of AMZN, (Solar City?) - What was that ticker?
ReplyDeleteSCTY
DeleteSCTY - Got it.
DeleteWatch the knock out....and rebound. This one is volatile.
DeleteJVA - This thing's gonna bolt following the brief commercial announcement?
ReplyDeleteTraded it the other day at the highs, bought it back today. Blind squirrel.
DeleteSGG - You guys don't like this idea, any reasons why other than it looks just like the gold chart LOL?
ReplyDeleteHPQ Inkjet printer.... You buy a new ink cartridge b/c you need to print something and it sets there afterward and dries up.
ReplyDeleteThat works out to about $5/page, no wonder the stock has tanked and earnings are negative.
I'm gonna go purchase a laser printer so I never have to contend with these f'n dried out HP cartridges again.
Got a Brother Wireless Laser at BestBuy for $99. Black and white only, but good enough for us. If someone wants to print pictures, do it at Costco or Walmart. Fast, lots of prints from a cartridge, no drying out or "head cleaning" to waste ridiculously priced ink. HP saying new ink-jets are priced competitive with laser and maybe they are, but if you print infrequently, laser is the definitely way to go.
Delete$99 is very reasonable, I'm gonna see if they've got one with built in scanner.
DeleteHave the inkjet cartridges refilled at Costco. Cheap. If you are on a surge protector/powerbar like I am, make sure you turn your printer off before powering down. But then again, I print a lot of color (labels) so it's worth it.
DeleteJust go laser, I should have mine here tonight if all goes well. B&W is cheap, maybe color is reasonable as well?
Delete"2006 was 3 years into a bull market and probably 5 or 6 into a rock star commodity bull market, so the fact you were feeling more comfortable then than now is probably a good thing, meaning that the market now still has more upside as people still haven't been convinced to jump in yet."
ReplyDeleteCouldn't have said it better myself. I was thinking over the past several days how we have been conditioned to expect the selloffs. Shit in 2010, 2011, and 2012 we had 10%+ pullbacks and several 5%+ pullbacks. Most of the stocks we were gung ho on at one point have come back to our original entry point and then some. So we're fully conditioned to expect pullbacks and "trade" stuff. What happens if this is a buy and hold year? Who amongst us is expecting that? Maybe Laz is right.
"we have been conditioned"
DeleteI have no doubt about this conditioning, and notice the market just keeps on climbing as retail was bailing? Sounds like C&H phenomenon.
S&P P/E is what, still around 13?
I think it's more like 14 but that's kind of the point i guess. if we do happen to get continued steady improvement in housing/jobs then at some point investors will be like f*ck it why are we waiting? its at 14 times earnings and it got to 17 last bull market. that alone is enough to move it to 1700 as long as earnings stay ok.
DeleteJust as I suspected...the move down in DMND was an attempt to shake it out one last time before the real move to $20 begins...at least that's my bet. If it gets over $14.5 it could very well run higher. I'm long from around $13.8 on Friday. Let's see if it can finally get things going.
ReplyDeleteInsiders have doubled down according to the finviz numbers assuming they can be trusted which is always a huge IF for some reason, from roughly ~$3m to ~$6m
DeleteDMND should adopt the AMZN model immediately, IMO.
MLNX - Should be good for another $2 of discount today, no doubt.
ReplyDeleteAMZN - Speaking of this one, is today a tweezer top formation?
ReplyDelete25-Jan-13 Reiterated Canaccord Genuity Hold $230 → $290
DeleteHigh hopes.
RBY - Crashing once again as the world watches.
ReplyDeleteI thought cb exited RBY with his 12/19 post. I would still recommend selling even now. To bet it all on one stock increases the odds that you will sell at the absolute low, when you can't take it any longer- ie, the exact point at which it reverses.
DeleteSLW/GDXJ closed @ 34.0x/ 18.5x. Sidelined and waiting for another entry.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Hoping I can reload this one somewhere around low $15's, will likely go to full position. Earnings always make my heart palpitate.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like TVIX might have made a bottom at $4.7 over the past few days. So I just bought 1000 more shares at $5.05. Now I am thinking whether or not to place a sell stop at $4.7 for all my shares -- any ideas?
ReplyDeleteMy only advice is to sell it and move on.
DeleteAdded to DMND at $14.18 and $14.25 (avg of $14.1). Why? Because it was the hard trade to make. I think it has a decent chance to go to at least $20. My position is still small but big picture is this is down from $90 and it's right around all time lows.
ReplyDeleteNicely done, tof.
DeleteDMND, been watching this most of the day.
DeleteNIHD you hit that one just right. There was some guy on Bloomberg on Friday with an interesting chart ( was trying to get it but can't find it) point is that small caps do better in FEB than any other month.
Here it is:
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/which-small-caps-should-you-be-buying-I7W7dwM_Sc68_jh6Vg8p3A.html
2nd_ave -- you don't think we'll have a volatility spike in the near future, off these record low volatility levels?
ReplyDeleteDavid- I don't know. And that's why I would be taking gains here. We're all wrong much of the time, maybe even most of the time. I've survived the past few years by taking losses quickly, and in many cases by cashing in gains quickly. This has not been a market that treats indecision kindly. And until it proves o/w, I will continue with very ST trades.
DeleteI see our "sister blog" has adopted a good strategy: instead of speaking about gold now, Bill in his WIR was congratulating himself on his call of S&P being ready to rally in mid-November. This morning, Geoff had also decided not to talk about gold and instead focused on S&P being ready for a pullback "in the weeks go come." He can't be wrong with this call. :)
ReplyDeleteThink of the people who gave him money to run because of his expertise and his ability to trade the juniors on this wisdom. Later he switches his thesis that this sector is a buy and hold and he will no longer be trading it but sitting for a 3 to 5 year cycle. Yikes, I would of pulled my money out on that switch if I had given him any.
DeleteHe may still be right on the cycle but the pain is heavy.
They could triple readership by detailing every wrong call with tick-by-tick comments on how they manage each one. Now that would truly be revolutionary. Not to mention helpful.
DeleteI can't afford to wait 3-5 years to see gains.
DeleteThe trade is wrong if timing and direction are wrong, simple as that.
Delete"Early is wrong".
DeleteUGAZ 19-handle.
ReplyDeleteI see that FXY (the Yen) is up slightly today, but SNE is ignoring that strength. So I am thinking that the large move down in Yen is not fully priced into SNE yet. So, for the hell of it, I just bought 500 shares of SNE at $15.09. This will, naturally, cause a large pullback in SNE, which will allow me to buy more call options on it at cheaper prices and really make money. :)
ReplyDeleteVG - You guys still got an eye peeled on this one, it does look cheap can't understand why...
ReplyDeleteAlso, I looked at the January 2014 calls on GDXJ and GDX and saw that slightly in-the-money GDX calls are actually a better deal, as they will almost triple if GDX rises back to its September highs, while slightly in-the-money GDXJ calls will a little more than double if GDXJ rises back to its September high. So I just bought 3 contracts of January 2014 $40 GDX calls at $5.55.
ReplyDeleteSNE rose today above its July highs, so the 1-year chart suggests conclusively that the long-term downtrend is over. So if SNE pulls back now, it will simply be a great buying opportunity.
ReplyDeletewe can only hope :)
DeleteSHW - Empty paint cans for weeks/months going forward?
ReplyDeleteCAT - Back log smaller, work shrinking year on year? CAT promises the future is bright, lip service?
I could make a case for staying in cash pending a significant correction. Sitting on the sidelines is a time-honored trading strategy, one not often mentioned.
ReplyDeleteAt this point I prefer anticipating rotation, as opposed to a pullback.
DeleteAlthough, gold did lead the last pullback IIRC, so maybe rinse and repeat? I still think rotation should be the theme but who nose..... Rising rates equals capital migrating somewhere or has the FED simply let off the gas for a few days to keep the market from zooming to the moon?
DeletePending Home Sales report a surprising 4.3% drop when a 1% rise was expected.
ReplyDeleteWY/USG - Have these charts reached the pinnacle of obscenity?
CHK - Nice move this past couple weeks.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Why do you insist on disregarding every painful lesson the market inflicts?
ReplyDelete(a) Stops. Take losses quickly when you're wrong.
(b) Options. The vast majority of positions expire worthless.
(c) Position size. Don't put it all into one stock.
I'm prone to repeating mistakes. I know I'll keep making mistakes. That's human nature, and I accept that. But I make it a point to exit bad positions immediately upon recognition.
DeleteI make bad trades all the time. No excuses, and I call a bad trade exactly that. There's no point in trying to turn it into anything else.
DeleteIt really is all mental. Less than 5% of trading success is research and analysis, IMO. The rest is understanding crowd behavior and one's own psychology.
Deletetook 15% of NIHD off at $7.7.
ReplyDeleteshort selling ban on banks in greece. NBG should be in play very soon.
ReplyDeleteNEWS:
ATHENS--Net lending to Greek businesses and households in December shrank 4% compared with the same period last year, as demand for bank loans continued to slide, data released by the Bank of Greece Monday show.
The decline was slightly smaller than the 4.6% drop recorded in November.
According to the data, the monthly net flow of loans to Greece's private sector fell by 152 million euros ( $606.5 billion ) compared with a year earlier, while the total amount of credit outstanding fell to EUR227.7 billion in December.
Net lending to households fell by EUR13 million in December after declining EUR224 million in November.
The net flow of credit to businesses contracted by EUR25 million from a year ago and compared with a EUR343 million contraction in August.
Greek banks have restricted the flow of credit since the start of the country's financial crisis as they attempt to deleverage and cope with liquidity shortages and a rise in non-performing loans.
MORE NEWS:
DeleteATHENS --Greek bank deposits rose for a fourth consecutive month in December, as the country's greater political stability during the last months helped to underpin confidence in the sector.
The Greek central bank said Monday that total deposits held by domestic residents and companies rose by 5.5 billion euros ( $7.4 billion ) in November to EUR161.36 billion from EUR155.89 billion in November.
Deposits started rising in July by EUR3.3 billion , after months of steady decline, as repeat elections on June 17 produced a three-party governing coalition, which prompted relief for savers, while there was a small decrease in August mainly due to the fact that Greeks had to pay their taxes at the end of the fiscal year. Since the elections, EUR11.3 billion have returned to Greek banks.
Greek banks have suffered a steady decline in deposits since the start of the country's debt crisis in late 2009, which prompted depositors to withdraw cash and transfer funds to overseas banks. Greece's recession has also forced many households and businesses to draw down their deposits.
In the past two years, the banking system has lost about one-third of its deposit base, with monthly deposit outflows generally averaging between EUR2 billion and EUR3 billion a month, but outflows have risen even more at times of political uncertainty and speculation over a possible Greek exit from the euro.
Deposits by households and businesses with Greek banks grew strongly in the years after Greece joined the euro in 2001, peaking at around EUR238 billion in September 2009 , according to Greek central bank figures.
Fears of financial meltdown led to a steady outflow from the end of 2009, with private-sector bank deposits falling to EUR220 billion in May 2010 , the month Greece received the first of its two European-led bailouts.
In March 2012 , when Greece received its second bailout, deposits had fallen to EUR165.4 billion .
About a third of the funds withdrawn from banks have gone abroad, the Greek central bank estimates. One reason for this, analysts say, is fear of a crackdown on tax evasion, a chronic problem in Greece and one of the key sources of the country's current fiscal mess.
The balance of deposits held in Greek banks at the end of 2011 fell to EUR174.2 billion , a decline of 16.8% from EUR209.6 billion in 2010.
"ATHENS --Greek bank deposits rose for a fourth consecutive month in December"
DeleteThis blows me away, I just read not two days ago(on the internet) a Greece/Spain/Italy bank run was in progress. I guess this came from the bearish camp and was simply more unproven, contrived BS.
Anyway, rising bank deposits makes sense from the perspective our market is currently rising, while the opposite would apply during our deep sell offs; that is banks were pulling money out of the market (Perhaps they were being forced to make good on deposits that were being withdrawn at the time?) and now they're placing these deposits back into the market.
I'm still convinced they're(banks) never on the right side of the trade, and we should have just kept buying as they were selling. In 20-20 hindsight, BB probably did this best, from what I can tell.
that's a pretty bearish looking chart for AMZN huh? it has had similar moves like that over the past couple of years and it went on to make decent losses over the next couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteMiners are back to last summer's lows, and the decline has been swift. If GDXJ were to rocket +10% tomorrow, it would still be below my mid-January exit @ 20.47.
ReplyDeleteThus the odds of a 'washout' decline have increased, IMO. Anyone who has opened positions since late July is now underwater. They are ticks away from clicking the Sell button. Should the sector gap down on Tuesday, they'll be hard-pressed not to run for the exits.
DeleteSCCO - Ouchie day going into earnings Feb 4th! Will base metals rock as SCCO slides sideways?
ReplyDeleteOr will the complex roll?
YHOO - Better than expected.
Cheap "laser" printers aren't the laser printers of days gone by, they use liquid ink (Buyer beware)?
"David- Why do you insist on disregarding every painful lesson the market inflicts?
ReplyDelete(a) Stops. Take losses quickly when you're wrong.
(b) Options. The vast majority of positions expire worthless.
(c) Position size. Don't put it all into one stock."
2nd_ave -- even though it may not be noticeable, but I am learning. :) For example, recall how I bought 1K shares of SIL two weeks ago, thinking that it will follow silver on the way up? Well, I placed a sell stop just below the support at $22, and last week I was promptly stopped out. That's an example of me using stops.
As for an example of (b) and (c), I sold a large chunk of my AUMN position at $4.30-$4.40, the day they announced a production delay. Since then, I have rotated some of that money into SNE (today) and also into GDX calls (today). I purchased 1-year calls so as to give the miners plenty of time to have a rebound and also diversified away from my favorite stock and even from the whole junior mining space.
If you are thinking about my TVIX position -- that is a separate story. At this point VIX futures are so low, that they don't really have any room to fall. The only thing that will hurt TVIX is the rollover risk, which is less than 10% per month now. I would have *definitely* used stops on TVIX if VIX was near or above 20, since in that case substantial declines in volatility would still be possible. Not now though...
Sad for our old friend.
ReplyDeleteRubicon
Submitted by cheapy (521 comments) on Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:49 #117018
Shows what a fool I am to own it. I hate my life. I guess I'm just gullible. And is appears mining, in general, ALL of them, are just worthless from a shareholder perspective.
I don't know how, if ever I'll make the losses back. I no longer have any hope.
Well, at least he didn't buy it on margin, using funds borrowed from credit cards, and did not use out-of-the-money call options, as I did with AUMN...
DeleteHell, he should be trading his way out of the paper bag, he's a bright guy and surely he's got a decent tool set.
DeleteTwo sectors going down pm's and miners), all others making new highs. WHY the F do people trade the two going down?
DeleteCC- You must remember. He's not trading RBY. Been in it for years. Damn, that's really sad...
DeleteBut your point is well taken and one I seem to forget a lot.
I feel bad for the guy. I've taken my share of losses. I developed an early 'uncle' point.
DeleteMistakes are the portals of discovery.
Delete"WHY the F do people trade the two going down? "
DeleteWhat else do you suggest, buy and hold?
TOF "Mistakes are the portals of discovery"
DeleteThe guy said he bought around one million dollars at about 6.5ish that's about a $632,000 dollar discovery and he's probably in his 50's or 60's.
Rough seas to say the least.
Same trap that get's some many people, Oh its going to 12 and I'll make a million. It seems that only happens to Larry Williams types of guys and than they spend the rest of their lives selling seminars on how you can do it to.
DeleteThis whole business is set up to fleece the unsuspecting and when you understand that game they "VIG" a slow death to you
INTC - Pretty high volume on this one lately could be another island reversal setup? The inverse could be true as well I guess, could be preparing for another leg down. Remember CSCO?
ReplyDeleteHXM - A higher high yesterday, will this one sink or fly?
ReplyDeleteBulls need to get jiggy with it tomorrow, I bet they drop the ball and let the bears have their way.
ReplyDeleteHeck, I'm the one who suspects the bears and the bulls are the same guys you know, the guys who own the computers down at the exchange.
Check out the first set of charts in this article, folks:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/Equites-Miners-and-Commodities-Are-Nearing/1/28/2013/id/47664?page=1
Here is the conclusion from this article: "We’ve been patient with the miners and have held an ample cash position ready to put to work. We plan to do so this week as the major lows are tested."
Isn't it true that what everyone expects in the market does not happen? So my latest thinking is that the July lows in gold, silver and miners WILL NOT BE tested. The prices will reverse soon, and folks that were waiting to buy at the lows will start chasing the price up.
Re AGO, earnings days almost always aren't a big deal when you are trading a stock being valued more on assets than earnings. I'd be surprised if it moved much more than normal unless something other than the EPS info is announced.
ReplyDeleteRe SNE, I think pullbacks will be fairly small in this stock making it hard to get in as there appears to be a lot of interest, so even a 2 - 3% pullback may be enough for buyers.
ReplyDeleteFinally, regarding the miners, I agree with CC, why trade or invest in miners at this time? There are so many easier places to invest like industrials, financials, anything housing related, real estate, transports, etc. They are going up, haven't just had a 12 year huge bull, and have economic tailwinds.
ReplyDeleteMiners have pretty much the worst charts in the markets and, sure you can try and pick the bottoms for a trade, but they are generally nowhere near a good long term buying bottom. Even though a stock like Goldcorp is down from $55 to $35, it was a $2 stock 13 years ago.
I own a little bit of some very cheap, small mining related stocks in case I am wrong (because you never know for sure), but really not an area for spending a lot of time.
A Cheapy lesson in one morning.....
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts?
"The Ps stalled a bit on Monday but it's not the end of the world. So far, their persistent trend/breakout remains intact. Ideally, I'd like to see them continue higher before they have a meaningful correction. This is because if they begin to correct now, it could suggests a false breakout.
As usual, take things one day at a time.
Once again, with the notable exceptions of Gold and Silver, the sector action remains impressive. Most sectors, like the Ps, remain at or near new highs.
So what do we do? With another flat-ish type of day, nothing changes. Honor your stops on existing longs just in case and continue to enjoy the ride as long as it continues. On new positions, again, I hate buying into an overbought market. The good news is that since I'm a pullback trader, I'm not seeing many setups at this juncture (except in issues that can trade contra to the indices) and likely won't until the market corrects a bit. For now, continue to focus on those issues that can trade contra to the indices such as Selected commodities (e.g. Rare Earths), speculative technology issues like the Solars, and selected IPOs. I haven't completely forgotten about the short side just yet. Here, I like the big cap issues that have lost steam as of late. As I preach, these previous high fliers could be a source of funds* if the market continues to rally and if the market sells off, the bigger they are, the harder they will fall. Said alternatively, I think these issues can trade contra to the overall market too.
At the risk of preaching: No matter what you do, continue to take things one day at a time and practice proper money and position management-honor your stops on existing positions and wait for entries on new ones. You'd be surprised how far those two things will go towards keeping you in the game for a long time.
Futures are soft pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Dave Landry
*For existing players holding them from much lower levels-see my webcasts, I often discuss this. Also see the "Go Go No Mo" article on my website for more on what happens when a prior winner loses steam.