Gentex: 4Q12 beat on efficiency and lower R&D – first take US Steel: Tough Q1 guidance, but better than expected Q4 loss T. Rowe Price: Slight miss & outflows, but well poised for equity flows Waddell & Reed: 4Q beat shows solid growth in revenues and margin European Investment Banks: Q4 results will be full of "one-offs" CIT Group Inc.: Strong Q4; core metrics solid EMC Corp: Solid C4Q12; outlook slightly below expectations; Buy Tupperware Brands: Q4 EPS beat; higher dividend and repurchase on the way
Saying it is the type of action I would expect to see at a tradeable bottom. However, with the SPX at 1500, nothing is really interesting to me on the long side. All cash.
Co announced a Normal Course Issuer Bid to acquire up to 8.5 million common shares from February 1, 2013 to January 31, 2014, representing approximately 5% of the Company's ~170.76 mln common shares currently issued and outstanding has been approved by the TSX. The Company is taking this action because it believes that prevailing market conditions have resulted in Silvercorp's shares being undervalued relative to the immediate and long term value of Silvercorp's portfolio of producing and development properties in China and Canada.
The guy said he bought around one million dollars at about 6.5ish that's about a $632,000 dollar discovery and he's probably in his 50's or 60's.
Rough seas to say the least."
T3d - I saw this post just now...yeah that definitely sucks but I hope he's able to learn from it and profit from it. It clearly sounds like he fell in love with his stock which is the biggest mistake most people make.
VG ripping this morning. I like how they're shaking out DMND. If it can hold up here after some selling it has most likely turned the tide and can go to $20 in a heart beat.
What I don't get is who the heck was buying that earnings report and what they were thinking? Could've just been technical phenomenon I suppose, is buying gap up closures really all that hot of a trading phenomenon? This was an unusual response, IMO, suspicious activity.
Sold out of chip company ISSI today at $9.73. This was one of those I picked up back in late 2008 during the massive sell-offs for $2.29. Should have sold it back in 2010 when it got up to $12, but thought it might get back up to the high teens. It might still, but the value in it is only OK and I'm sure I can find better places to put that money.
That's 4 sells for me this year and only 1 buy (VE). I don't consciously try and buy or sell stocks, just do it more based on valuation and how I fell about the prospects.
I think infrastructure is a good place to invest. I bought SNC Lavalin in Canada (SNC.TO) last year on the pullback related to the bribing charges. Infrastructure type companies are generally fairly expensive, so it's good to get them when you can. But hard to see how they don't do well with all the work needed to be done in North America and around the world. The other one I keep watching is ABB in New York. They are the Swiss company that does a lot of work on energy infrastructure.
Speaking of energy infrastructure, by off chance (one of few mechanisms I respect) I'd located a firm out of Florida that erects towers for the electrical grid, but lost track b/c I got distracted and forgot to jot the name down.
Regarding the miners, it is tempting to buy some NDM and just put away. The market cap is $350 million and they've got the largest undeveloped Copper deposit and the largest undeveloped Gold deposit in the world up in Alaska. Probably 10 years to get the mine going due to environmental and the build out, but they've got about $500 billion in minerals, so if you believe they can figure out a way to do this, it will be a huge winner. The only issue is if metal prices crash, and if not, when to buy for best ROI. 10 years is a long time to wait for a return, even for me!
NAK/NDM, funny I was sking at Sun Peaks, BC about five years ago and on the chair lift someone asked what to invest in, I said gold and just about no one will say to do it. Some guy starts laughing and says he is a geologist for NAK and is here for the weekend. He said he told them he did not want the job, I think, because it was deep underground mine. He said something to the effect we will pay you 150K per year and fly you back to civilization on weekends by helicopter so he took the job.
YHOO - Seems the recent bout of enthusiasm wasn't quite enough to carry the ball. Hard to regain lost respect is the way pricing mechanisms should function but too often don't count for a rat's a**, in the grease-ball wall street sham P&D market. Volume preceding price, no doubt?
It had occurred to me last night that too many people are expecting gold/silver/miners to retest May/July lows and are waiting to load up on them at those lows. So I figured there is a good chance that those lows won't be retested. So far, this morning, the price action supports my thesis. :) If the price refuses to break down for a few more days or starts creeping up, then all those people will become impatient and will start chasing the price up. So, while AUMN is still cheap, I just bought 1000 shares at $3.59, replacing the 1000 shares I sold a few weeks ago at $4.58.
busy day today. I flipped my NIHD at $7.52 and then sold most of the rest at $7.47. Not the greatest exit but still a nice profit. Going to re-enter.
Holding DMND - looks good so far.
Bought UGAZ at $18.99 avg - pretty big position. /NG is sitting right around a major up trendline from april 2012. the daily RSI_EMA is right at a bounce level. i like the trade setup. plus, even if we get only a minor pullback it should do ok since it tends to outperform on down days in the market.
A record low number of comments on the "sister" blog. Nobody is excited by the PM rally, which suggests that people have simply thrown in the towel and don't expect anything good from that sector.
Notice, folks, that the recent pullback in silver stopped exactly at a 50% retracement of the rally off its December lows, while gold has retraced almost that whole rally. With silver outperforming gold by so much, something doesn't square up with a broad-base despise of PMs. Maybe Bill was right and this was an engineered take down, to shake off the weak hands before a major rally?
I thought that the action in AUMN was sucky (barely green despite a large rally in GDXJ), but then I looked at the "mighty MUX" and saw that it red! What's up with that??? The "best" stocks are not participating?
Furniture Brands (FBN) starting to move - up from $1.10 to $1.40 in the last 5 days. Still holding from my buy at $1.53 before last quarter's crappy earnings - good story if nothing else.
Anyone notice all of the life boats being floated for AAPL? There are more book talkers on the air than correspondents. AAPL is going to be a $300 stock. Here's a good example... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/apple-s-odds-of-being-cheap-stock-put-at-90-chart-of-the-day.html
Although recent weakness is likely due to some kind of an awakening, I congratulate this author for choosing a very subjective way of adding to the confusion.
"Apple’s Odds of Being Cheap Stock Put at 90%: Chart of the Day By David Wilson - 2013-01-29T05:00:00Z
Apple Inc. (AAPL) has a 90 percent chance of being undervalued after a four-month drop in shares of the iPhone and iPad maker, according to Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University. "
I admit to a dilemma with the miners here. Had I held my positions in GDXJ/ SLW and/or opened RYPMX yesterday, there is little doubt I’d be selling it all right now for a +2% gain. On the other hand, I like the fact that both metals (SLV/GLD) and miners (GDX/GDXJ) are finally bidding higher today, and I can’t tell if it’s a dead cat bounce.
I can visualize two pain trades:
(a) Miners gap up on Wednesday and run for several days without looking back. This would leave sidelined investors in the dust, and buying accelerates as they are forced to chase. (b) Miners gap down on Wednesday, and selling accelerates as today’s buyers immediately throw in the towel.
In any case, I plan to reopen RYPMX at the close (last quote 56.37, which is about -8% from my last exit @ 61.32). Broad market sentiment is quite bullish, and the consensus view calls for a pullback. IMO, the DJIA will instead close the month above 14,000 (and the VIX will likewise continue to drop). Silver and gold prices will similarly continue upward with no correction, and miners will rally on high volume for the next 2-3 days.
Given a choice between another iced tea or a V8, I have to opt for the V8. If I don’t act on my sixth sense, there’s no point in trading!
IMO, the ‘hard trade’ here is to go long. Which means the majority will opt to sit out. The majority rarely make the correct move. Of course, I’m wrong half the time. We’ll see.
2nd_ave -- VIX cannot continue to drop, because it is already at historic low levels associated with ANY kind of market action. It is not an inverse ETF, which will keep going down as long as the market goes up. If the market keeps going up, VIX will bounce around between 12 and 13, until the correction finally starts.
Well this makes me feel better....?????? Since when is a .42% rise in gold and 1% in oil a trend?
"Ron Paul Today: Oil up; gold up; silver up; 10 yr treasury interest up; trends that are predictable and on the long run will continue. Stocks are up; a trend that will not persist."
WTF does he think will happen with rising T yields? When T prices fall where will that $$$ go Ron?
Nat Gas - Guys at some point this year there is going to be the mother of all spikes in Nat Gas in my opinion. I think it's something we need to be ready for. If it happens like I think it might then you will see UGAZ up 700-1000%+ in a matter of weeks.
I don't think it's going to happen yet but possibly after Q1 or Q2 earnings for the producers come out. I've read a couple of reports from nat gas producers over the past week that are showing very rapid production declines quarter over quarter in Q3. This data isn't available in the EIA reports because those are estimates and are based on old data. If the Q4 reports show continued production declines as a result of rapid output rates in the shale gas plays and as a result of the tremendous rig count reduction from last year, then I think it could be the spark that starts a rally...but if we do get a continuation of production declines in q1 and q2 2013 then you could see a major major spike that no one is expecting.
I honestly don't know the timing of this and only entered the Nat Gas trade again today because of a variety of technical reasons but I've kept this thesis in the back of my mind for a while now ever since Nat Gas bottomed out in April 2012. The rig count reduction has been brushed off by many because the storage reports continue to show ample storage and a relatively stable supply/demand picture. But again that info is distorted with old data from the EIA.
Because of time decay obviously buying and holding UGAZ is stupid. However, it will be one helluva swing trade when the time comes, if it does. In the meantime the coal companies should be major beneficiaries of this spike if it does happen, despite the consensus thinking that coal is dirty and dead. If nat gas spikes to $9 in a two-three month span do you think coal will become more or less enticing for consumers?
There's supposed to be some legislative bills moving at turtle speed through the approval/denial process, one is for exporting while the another involves environmental concerns.
The approach of these may correlate somewhat with the timing? The typical rise into news release followed by brief blow-off rally into which distribution cycle occurs?
Anyway, in anticipation of the passing or failure of this legislation and potential implications, here's an article from late November tying in ideas on how the event may impact chemical manufacturers such as DOW Chemical which as you can see via your 20-20 kaleidoscope prisms has participated in an impressive sector rally:
Of course in my usual display of infinite wisdom, I have no idea of the status of these bills.
Equally helpful and of no relation, I was able to rejuvenate my ink-jet printer cartridge nozzle by giving it a steam bath with an hand-held electric steamer. Prints like new! ;)
Agreed on NG TOF. Looks to be a great long-term entry right about....here.
I think we are in a totally new environment (per my annual forecast) so I'm not anticipating the typical "Euro Meltdown" correction as has been the case over the past few years. I'm thinking 3-5% corrections for the foreseeable future. Not anything to trigger liquidation of the entire port....
unless port components are well above 10wma and their rsi's are at nosebleed levels. The sectors I'm watching (steel,coals,emerging mkts etc.) aren't at nosebleed levels. Well perhaps VNM, but not many others.
The contango structure of VIX has flattened out even more since last week: VIX at 13.31, February futures at 14.05, March futures at 14.95. That's only 7% per month in contango decay for VXX and really no downside space left (well, maybe 5% at most) for the whole curve to move down. Thus, long VXX or TVIX is THE way to hedge for the upcoming correction...
Agreed David. I can see a scenario in which the SPY declines 2.5% or 3% and VIX spikes 50%. Just a question of when...
I'll preface this by saying that AUMN is now officially off limits to anybody who has ever visited this board. But, I almost want to say that AUMN is about to spike and SNE is about to take a well-needed breather. Murphy's law?
In any case, I'm fairly certain that the media will create a crisis sometime within the next 1-2 months during which VIX will revert to normalized levels....
TOF- Re, natty production. Your not using the claim that the frac wells run out of gas much faster than conventional drilling are you? I've asked MOG about this twice and he says no way.
Gentex: 4Q12 beat on efficiency and lower R&D – first take
ReplyDeleteUS Steel: Tough Q1 guidance, but better than expected Q4 loss
T. Rowe Price: Slight miss & outflows, but well poised for equity flows
Waddell & Reed: 4Q beat shows solid growth in revenues and margin
European Investment Banks: Q4 results will be full of "one-offs"
CIT Group Inc.: Strong Q4; core metrics solid
EMC Corp: Solid C4Q12; outlook slightly below expectations; Buy
Tupperware Brands: Q4 EPS beat; higher dividend and repurchase on the way
RBY/MUX et all....I know, I know, but yesterday sure does look like capitulation at least in the short run.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you saying? You're in?
DeleteSaying it is the type of action I would expect to see at a tradeable bottom. However, with the SPX at 1500, nothing is really interesting to me on the long side. All cash.
DeleteThat's pretty clear cut.
DeleteNSPH - Sucks again, of course.
ReplyDeleteSVM
ReplyDeleteCo announced a Normal Course Issuer Bid to acquire up to 8.5 million common shares from February 1, 2013 to January 31, 2014, representing approximately 5% of the Company's ~170.76 mln common shares currently issued and outstanding has been approved by the TSX. The Company is taking this action because it believes that prevailing market conditions have resulted in Silvercorp's shares being undervalued relative to the immediate and long term value of Silvercorp's portfolio of producing and development properties in China and Canada.
This type of action also has an familiar odor.
Delete"TOF "Mistakes are the portals of discovery"
ReplyDeleteThe guy said he bought around one million dollars at about 6.5ish that's about a $632,000 dollar discovery and he's probably in his 50's or 60's.
Rough seas to say the least."
T3d - I saw this post just now...yeah that definitely sucks but I hope he's able to learn from it and profit from it. It clearly sounds like he fell in love with his stock which is the biggest mistake most people make.
VG ripping this morning. I like how they're shaking out DMND. If it can hold up here after some selling it has most likely turned the tide and can go to $20 in a heart beat.
VG - Still incredibly cheap.
Deletei agree...trades at like 4 or 5 times cash flow. the fear is that skype will crush them but Skype has been around for a while now.
DeleteAdded to NIHD at $7.4
ReplyDeleteadding NIHD bit by bit. this sucker is gonna get a buyout bid because of its spectrum and the cell phone towers it owns.
DeleteMLNX - Another $1 of discount, LOL Just keeps on sliding.....
ReplyDeletethe nearer your destination the more you keep slip sliding away.
DeleteOr pick one of 50 ways to leave that POS.
DeleteWhat I don't get is who the heck was buying that earnings report and what they were thinking? Could've just been technical phenomenon I suppose, is buying gap up closures really all that hot of a trading phenomenon? This was an unusual response, IMO, suspicious activity.
DeleteSold out of chip company ISSI today at $9.73. This was one of those I picked up back in late 2008 during the massive sell-offs for $2.29. Should have sold it back in 2010 when it got up to $12, but thought it might get back up to the high teens. It might still, but the value in it is only OK and I'm sure I can find better places to put that money.
ReplyDeleteThat's 4 sells for me this year and only 1 buy (VE). I don't consciously try and buy or sell stocks, just do it more based on valuation and how I fell about the prospects.
DeleteNice trade there, BB!
DeleteVE - Beautiful pincher play on the weekly chart, progressing nicely:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p76342399478
What was that blip to $12.63 a moment ago, sweeping stops?
DeleteAnyway, this is one of the infrastructure stock I was interested in some time ago, as much as a couple years back, IIRC, SHAW was another.
DeleteI think infrastructure is a good place to invest. I bought SNC Lavalin in Canada (SNC.TO) last year on the pullback related to the bribing charges. Infrastructure type companies are generally fairly expensive, so it's good to get them when you can. But hard to see how they don't do well with all the work needed to be done in North America and around the world. The other one I keep watching is ABB in New York. They are the Swiss company that does a lot of work on energy infrastructure.
DeleteSpeaking of energy infrastructure, by off chance (one of few mechanisms I respect) I'd located a firm out of Florida that erects towers for the electrical grid, but lost track b/c I got distracted and forgot to jot the name down.
DeleteThe stock had also recently been beat up.
AGO - Looks like the momo-guys have nearly finished taking gains.
ReplyDeletehttp://money-markets-blog.amazon.com/post/TxKWD699FPWUEW/10-Business-Lessons-from-the-Beatlesref=txb_mm_blog_txt
ReplyDeleteMLNX - The one aspect this one has going for it is Cramer's dislike and so far, he's been correctamundo....
ReplyDelete1505 - There ya go as promised, bulls firmly in control today.
Regarding the miners, it is tempting to buy some NDM and just put away. The market cap is $350 million and they've got the largest undeveloped Copper deposit and the largest undeveloped Gold deposit in the world up in Alaska. Probably 10 years to get the mine going due to environmental and the build out, but they've got about $500 billion in minerals, so if you believe they can figure out a way to do this, it will be a huge winner. The only issue is if metal prices crash, and if not, when to buy for best ROI. 10 years is a long time to wait for a return, even for me!
ReplyDeleteThat qualifies as deep value. ;)
DeleteNAK/NDM, funny I was sking at Sun Peaks, BC about five years ago and on the chair lift someone asked what to invest in, I said gold and just about no one will say to do it. Some guy starts laughing and says he is a geologist for NAK and is here for the weekend. He said he told them he did not want the job, I think, because it was deep underground mine. He said something to the effect we will pay you 150K per year and fly you back to civilization on weekends by helicopter so he took the job.
DeleteSun Peaks wish I was there.
http://www.sunpeaksresort.com/weather-and-cams/web-cams
YHOO - Seems the recent bout of enthusiasm wasn't quite enough to carry the ball. Hard to regain lost respect is the way pricing mechanisms should function but too often don't count for a rat's a**, in the grease-ball wall street sham P&D market. Volume preceding price, no doubt?
ReplyDeleteIt had occurred to me last night that too many people are expecting gold/silver/miners to retest May/July lows and are waiting to load up on them at those lows. So I figured there is a good chance that those lows won't be retested. So far, this morning, the price action supports my thesis. :) If the price refuses to break down for a few more days or starts creeping up, then all those people will become impatient and will start chasing the price up. So, while AUMN is still cheap, I just bought 1000 shares at $3.59, replacing the 1000 shares I sold a few weeks ago at $4.58.
ReplyDeleteI see SNE is having a major pullback right now -- it is in the red! :)
ReplyDelete3 cents is a major pullback? I hope you're kidding!
DeleteWM - This bull flag play has reached prime momo profit harvest territory.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to observe what can sometimes emerge from another man's trash.
busy day today. I flipped my NIHD at $7.52 and then sold most of the rest at $7.47. Not the greatest exit but still a nice profit. Going to re-enter.
ReplyDeleteHolding DMND - looks good so far.
Bought UGAZ at $18.99 avg - pretty big position. /NG is sitting right around a major up trendline from april 2012. the daily RSI_EMA is right at a bounce level. i like the trade setup. plus, even if we get only a minor pullback it should do ok since it tends to outperform on down days in the market.
A record low number of comments on the "sister" blog. Nobody is excited by the PM rally, which suggests that people have simply thrown in the towel and don't expect anything good from that sector.
ReplyDeleteobjectivetrader had a good article on gold miners. i like his thinking in terms of sentiment.
DeleteNotice, folks, that the recent pullback in silver stopped exactly at a 50% retracement of the rally off its December lows, while gold has retraced almost that whole rally. With silver outperforming gold by so much, something doesn't square up with a broad-base despise of PMs. Maybe Bill was right and this was an engineered take down, to shake off the weak hands before a major rally?
ReplyDelete5 of the top 10 stocks on the TSX today are silver stocks.
DeleteSNE - Sorta looks like a $25 bull flag if I didn't know any better.
ReplyDeleteHeads up. Elevated risk.
ReplyDeleteJust tweeted:
Here's my first "Canary in Coalmine" call in long time.Risk elevated next few sessions. VIPS, FSLR, GMCR, RIMM, PCYC, SSYS cracking. Careful
Hope everyone's been kicking ass:)
DeleteThank you for the heads up, Jesse! I am all ready for a market pullback, with 2K shares of TVIX. :)
DeleteI'd add AMZN to that list as well. yesterday was an ominous "tell". i like the setup in Nat Gas long here especially with a potential pause/pullback.
DeleteI thought that the action in AUMN was sucky (barely green despite a large rally in GDXJ), but then I looked at the "mighty MUX" and saw that it red! What's up with that??? The "best" stocks are not participating?
ReplyDelete5 of the top 10 stocks on the TSX today are silver stocks.
DeleteFortuna Silver Mines IncFVI 4.20 +5.53%
First Majestic Silver CorpFR 18.10 +4.99%
AuRico Gold IncAUQ 7.28 +4.60%
Silvercorp Metals IncSVM 4.49 +4.42%
Endeavour Silver CorpEDR 7.20 +3.75%
Crew Energy IncCR 6.03 +3.61%
TMX Group LtdX 56.55 +3.57%
Canadian Pacific Railway LtdCP 116.77 +3.55%
Canfor CorpCFP 19.11 +3.35%
Aurizon Mines LtdARZ 4.67 +3.32%
Got a little bit of algo trading action based on some obscure currency differential?
DeleteFurniture Brands (FBN) starting to move - up from $1.10 to $1.40 in the last 5 days. Still holding from my buy at $1.53 before last quarter's crappy earnings - good story if nothing else.
ReplyDeleteWhy weren't you screaming in pain six weeks ago, or did I just rat on myself for napping? ;)
DeleteAnyone notice all of the life boats being floated for AAPL? There are more book talkers on the air than correspondents. AAPL is going to be a $300 stock.
ReplyDeleteHere's a good example...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/apple-s-odds-of-being-cheap-stock-put-at-90-chart-of-the-day.html
Although recent weakness is likely due to some kind of an awakening, I congratulate this author for choosing a very subjective way of adding to the confusion.
Delete"Apple’s Odds of Being Cheap Stock Put at 90%: Chart of the Day
By David Wilson - 2013-01-29T05:00:00Z
Apple Inc. (AAPL) has a 90 percent chance of being undervalued after a four-month drop in shares of the iPhone and iPad maker, according to Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University. "
See my profile photo.
DeleteThe canary with X's over it's eyes says it all. Notice the price where it happens...
Hell, even full size I can't see it that good. Let's just say it was $200 ago....
DeleteRIG could be setting up for a nice short.
ReplyDeleteMLNX - Time to take your dollar, you can pick it up tomorrow beneath where you started today.
ReplyDeleteI admit to a dilemma with the miners here. Had I held my positions in GDXJ/ SLW and/or opened RYPMX yesterday, there is little doubt I’d be selling it all right now for a +2% gain. On the other hand, I like the fact that both metals (SLV/GLD) and miners (GDX/GDXJ) are finally bidding higher today, and I can’t tell if it’s a dead cat bounce.
ReplyDeleteI can visualize two pain trades:
(a) Miners gap up on Wednesday and run for several days without looking back. This would leave sidelined investors in the dust, and buying accelerates as they are forced to chase.
(b) Miners gap down on Wednesday, and selling accelerates as today’s buyers immediately throw in the towel.
In any case, I plan to reopen RYPMX at the close (last quote 56.37, which is about -8% from my last exit @ 61.32). Broad market sentiment is quite bullish, and the consensus view calls for a pullback. IMO, the DJIA will instead close the month above 14,000 (and the VIX will likewise continue to drop). Silver and gold prices will similarly continue upward with no correction, and miners will rally on high volume for the next 2-3 days.
Given a choice between another iced tea or a V8, I have to opt for the V8. If I don’t act on my sixth sense, there’s no point in trading!
IMO, the ‘hard trade’ here is to go long. Which means the majority will opt to sit out. The majority rarely make the correct move. Of course, I’m wrong half the time. We’ll see.
DeleteYour right there. Too hard for me to go long. GL bro.
Deleteif you're wrong half the time then is your majority right or wrong?
DeleteShould be interesting....
DeleteLong GGN
DeleteGG long like 2nd says its worth a shot here
ReplyDeleteTZA = the widow maker
ReplyDeleteit will have its day of vengeance soon though. but probably just one day.
AMZN Q1 guidance light @ 15B.
ReplyDeleteThey're buying it though!
Deletethat explains why it was so volatile. didn't realize earnings were today.
DeleteNo pullback for SNE today. :)
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- VIX cannot continue to drop, because it is already at historic low levels associated with ANY kind of market action. It is not an inverse ETF, which will keep going down as long as the market goes up. If the market keeps going up, VIX will bounce around between 12 and 13, until the correction finally starts.
ReplyDeleteCannot? I don't think I would go there. It can do any Fing thing it wants. Just about the time you get cocky it provides a demonstration.
DeleteWell this makes me feel better....??????
ReplyDeleteSince when is a .42% rise in gold and 1% in oil a trend?
"Ron Paul
Today: Oil up; gold up; silver up; 10 yr treasury interest up; trends that are predictable and on the long run will continue. Stocks are up; a trend that will not persist."
WTF does he think will happen with rising T yields? When T prices fall where will that $$$ go Ron?
Ron Paul actually said all of the above?
DeleteThe guy has more careers than I can keep track of.
DeleteYes, on Facebook no less.
DeleteRon Paul is a great trader apparently, or perhaps someone responded. His comparison last year of gasoline with silver brought only doom for silver.
DeleteNat Gas - Guys at some point this year there is going to be the mother of all spikes in Nat Gas in my opinion. I think it's something we need to be ready for. If it happens like I think it might then you will see UGAZ up 700-1000%+ in a matter of weeks.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's going to happen yet but possibly after Q1 or Q2 earnings for the producers come out. I've read a couple of reports from nat gas producers over the past week that are showing very rapid production declines quarter over quarter in Q3. This data isn't available in the EIA reports because those are estimates and are based on old data. If the Q4 reports show continued production declines as a result of rapid output rates in the shale gas plays and as a result of the tremendous rig count reduction from last year, then I think it could be the spark that starts a rally...but if we do get a continuation of production declines in q1 and q2 2013 then you could see a major major spike that no one is expecting.
I honestly don't know the timing of this and only entered the Nat Gas trade again today because of a variety of technical reasons but I've kept this thesis in the back of my mind for a while now ever since Nat Gas bottomed out in April 2012. The rig count reduction has been brushed off by many because the storage reports continue to show ample storage and a relatively stable supply/demand picture. But again that info is distorted with old data from the EIA.
Because of time decay obviously buying and holding UGAZ is stupid. However, it will be one helluva swing trade when the time comes, if it does. In the meantime the coal companies should be major beneficiaries of this spike if it does happen, despite the consensus thinking that coal is dirty and dead. If nat gas spikes to $9 in a two-three month span do you think coal will become more or less enticing for consumers?
F*ck that TOG bullish*t on the sister site...this is the real trade of the generation if it does happen. Will make some people extremely wealthy.
DeleteLOL! I think at least you're right ST because we are bound to see some correction in the broad indices where NG tends to go higher.
DeleteI would also keep an eye on the drillers. If NG goes higher they will too.
There's supposed to be some legislative bills moving at turtle speed through the approval/denial process, one is for exporting while the another involves environmental concerns.
DeleteThe approach of these may correlate somewhat with the timing? The typical rise into news release followed by brief blow-off rally into which distribution cycle occurs?
Anyway, in anticipation of the passing or failure of this legislation and potential implications, here's an article from late November tying in ideas on how the event may impact chemical manufacturers such as DOW Chemical which as you can see via your 20-20 kaleidoscope prisms has participated in an impressive sector rally:
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1030601-next-ung-target-30-if-regulatory-and-technical-hurdles-are-cleared
Of course in my usual display of infinite wisdom, I have no idea of the status of these bills.
Equally helpful and of no relation, I was able to rejuvenate my ink-jet printer cartridge nozzle by giving it a steam bath with an hand-held electric steamer. Prints like new! ;)
Agreed on NG TOF. Looks to be a great long-term entry right about....here.
ReplyDeleteI think we are in a totally new environment (per my annual forecast) so I'm not anticipating the typical "Euro Meltdown" correction as has been the case over the past few years. I'm thinking 3-5% corrections for the foreseeable future. Not anything to trigger liquidation of the entire port....
unless port components are well above 10wma and their rsi's are at nosebleed levels. The sectors I'm watching (steel,coals,emerging mkts etc.) aren't at nosebleed levels. Well perhaps VNM, but not many others.
TLT reminds me of an air mattress with a pinhole in it as opposed to a leaky water bed.
ReplyDeleteThe contango structure of VIX has flattened out even more since last week: VIX at 13.31, February futures at 14.05, March futures at 14.95. That's only 7% per month in contango decay for VXX and really no downside space left (well, maybe 5% at most) for the whole curve to move down. Thus, long VXX or TVIX is THE way to hedge for the upcoming correction...
ReplyDeleteAgreed David. I can see a scenario in which the SPY declines 2.5% or 3% and VIX spikes 50%. Just a question of when...
DeleteI'll preface this by saying that AUMN is now officially off limits to anybody who has ever visited this board. But, I almost want to say that AUMN is about to spike and SNE is about to take a well-needed breather. Murphy's law?
In any case, I'm fairly certain that the media will create a crisis sometime within the next 1-2 months during which VIX will revert to normalized levels....
AMZN - Yep, +9%
ReplyDeleteCPHD - The heck with waiting around for the gap down to close, momo traders take gains.
ReplyDeleteVMW - Ouch, damn!
ReplyDeleteAir traffic cancelled in Beijing due to smog emissions of factories.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't sound much like an economy hitting the skids, more like one who's growth is so robust it desperately needs environmental hazard controls.
MUX - Inverse C&H, what would the target be on this formation?
ReplyDeleteCHK - Aubrey steps down, retires.
ReplyDelete...and the stock explodes!! That must feel great.
DeleteTOF- Re, natty production. Your not using the claim that the frac wells run out of gas much faster than conventional drilling are you? I've asked MOG about this twice and he says no way.
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