Wednesday, January 2, 2013
1/3/13 2013 Forecast
We're all entitled to make one. Based purely on sentiment, I'm pretty sure we see +10-15% moves in the broad indexes by year-end, and gold at 2000+. I also think we experience a significant correction along the way. I sincerely hope to see AUMN in double digits at some point. We should have plenty of excitement throughout the Year of the Snake.
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MNTX- Woe, talk about breaking a down trend line...
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the best posts I have yet seen.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2013/01/02/taoism-and-libertarianism/
From the Tao Te Ching
If you want to be a great leader,
you must learn to follow the Tao.
Stop trying to control,
Let go of fixed plans and concepts,
and the world will govern itself.
The more prohibitions you have,
the less virtuous people will be.
The more weapons you have,
the less secure people will be.
The more subsidies you have,
the less self-reliant people will be.
Therefore the Master says:
I let go of the law,
and people become honest.
I let go of economics,
and people become prosperous.
I let go of religion,
and people become serene.
I let go of all desire for the common good,
and the good becomes common as grass.
Interesting that Buffett is buying into solar!!! I still have my big ol 200 share position in FSLR
ReplyDeleteWarren Buffett Just Bought The Largest Solar Energy Project In The World
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-midamerican-solar-project-2013-1
"MidAmerican Energy Holdings, the electric utility owned by Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathway group, announced today it had acquired a 579-megawatt solar development in Southern California.
The Antelope Valley Solar projects, which are actually two adjacent arrays in Kern and Los Angeles counties, will comprise the largest solar project in the world, according to the company's release, serving close to 1 million residents.
The previous record was held by NextEra's Mojave development with an operating capacity of 354 megawatts.
Bloomberg reported MidAmerican purchased the development from Sunpower for between $2 and $2.5 billion. "
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI have a couple thousand shares of SPWR. PT is 6.50 on half.
ReplyDeleteAlso SOL.
"I sincerely hope to see AUMN in double digits at some point."
ReplyDeleteI hope so too. But timing is also important for me now, since I have a lot of April $5 calls that I bought between $0.40 and $0.60. I have already sold at $0.60 the 22 contracts I purchased at $0.42, and now I have sell limit orders lined up for the remaining calls between $0.80 and $1.80. So I need AUMN to rise to $6.80 before April OpEx to be a happy camper. I also have 20 contracts of January $5 calls and a sell limit order for them at $1.00, so if AUMN touches $6 before January OpEx, that would be nice too (but not as important as touching $6.80 by April, since I have MANY more April calls than January calls).
Reopening UGAZ @ 18.77...
ReplyDeleteMLNX @ 50.10...
ReplyDeleteAdded UGAZ @ 18.31...
ReplyDeleteMLNX
ReplyDeletePreannounces 4Q Revenue Shortfall
Revenue shortfall mostly cabling and part demand Mellanox preannounced 4Q revenue of $119-121mn vs previous guidance of $145-150mn,
citing a weaker demand environment, challenging macro, and FDR cabling. The cabling issue was in a supplied wafer used in the 56Gbps cable
connectors, resulting in a deferral of $20mn in sales. It took two weeks to identify the problem. Management is confident the issue has been solved
and new screening procedures are in place.
Negative read-through to servers Although cabling was the major problem, weaker demand reduced the top line as well. Management told us one
large OEM was below expectations by $5-10mn, likely either HP or IBM, each of which was almost 20% of revenue in 3Q/12.
Lowering 4Q while raising 1Q/13 as revenue shifts We are lowering our 4Q/12 revenue estimate from $151mn to $120mn and our EPS estimate
from $1.08 to $0.85 on about the same 69% gross margin. As the cabling problem has been fixed, we have added $15mn to our 1Q estimate, so we
are raising 1Q/13 estimated EPS and revenue from $0.98 on $151mn in revenue to $1.06 on $166mn. We have not altered our 2Q-4Q estimates.
Valuation: Lowering price target to $56; reiterate Neutral Our new price target of $56 (prior $70) is based on a P/E of 13x our non-GAAP 2013
estimate, below the last five-year average of 20x but reflecting the risk of Intel entering the InfiniBand market and lumpiness of earnings. The stock
traded near $53 per share in the aftermarket.
It's amazing how close my price target of $55 (posted in jest last night) came to at least one analyst's downgrade.
Deletegoing your way, good luck
DeleteUGAZ off @ 18.62/18.59...
ReplyDeleteMLNX off @ 50.74...
MLNX @ 49.97...
ReplyDeleteAdded @ 49.33...
DeleteHalf off @ 49.67...
DeleteOther half off @ 50.23...
DeleteMan, that was a freaking rush.
ReplyDeleteCPHD- Pretty strange on no news I can find. Heavy volume to already too. You guys see anything. I looked everywhere I can think of.
ReplyDeleteYou're right. Down big on heavy volume can't be good.
DeleteOn the other hand, it's just giving back yesterday's gains.
DeleteProfit taking following the FDA approval run, maybe?
DeleteI think I just heard something on CNBC about one of their competitors??? Something about a JPM downgrade on genetic testing??
DeleteThat sounds like a good reason, CP. If I were holding a significant position, exactly what I'd be doing.
DeleteYou want the BACML report from 12/27, price target was $40. Seems like some insider selling and option exercises recently.
DeleteJPM downgrade might be good news going forward?
I'm really not too interested in owning, myself.
No thanks CP. I'm only interested as it relates to NSPH.
DeleteIt's yours anyway, ya decrepit wreck.
DeleteFollowing yesterday's shellacking, no respite whatsoever for NGas holders. They just keep pounding away.
ReplyDeleteMLNX - Still diverging from $90, eh?
ReplyDeleteI think it's safe to say it's nowhere near any kind of support zone right now. So I'd be careful taking a long position and walking away.
DeleteHa, yeah, we witnessed a $6 move last month on no news, or I think it was absent news. It was even prior to Cramer recalling his sell call.
DeleteTEVA is getting perky, been trashed the last 16 days.
ReplyDeletelong
Doesn't look half bad.
DeleteMLNX - Looks like racketeer analysts are gonna support it to at least $70's?
ReplyDeleteHoly sh*t what a ride. I never told you guys this but here is my story with AMBS. I originally bought the stock at $0.03 and watched it ride up to $0.08 in 2 days. I didn't bail for whatever reason. In fact, I added a little more at $0.06. My cost was around $0.045 I think? Anyway, it wasn't a terribly large position but it was enough to make me nervous. I had a chance twice to sell it at about a 50% gain but watched the gains slowly dwindle away and then the stock tanked down to sub $0.03. I almost threw the towel in and called it a loss. But stupid me I decided to double my position at $0.026. It went to $0.018 and I was down quite a bit. I decided to double again and the position then became about 40% of my portfolio. I was definitely getting a bit scared to be honest.
ReplyDeleteFast forward a couple of weeks and the stock started to rally. I told myself that I would bail if it got to $0.06 again. I did...but only about 5% of the position. Then it ran up to $0.125 and I bailed about half...huge gain. Absolutely huge. I almost sold all of it but we were travelling home from my wife's parents' house after our stay for Xmas and I didn't have a chance. During the drive I checked and saw it crashed to $0.07. Obviously I was annoyed. I figured I would try to sell the next day if I could. Then I found out that my stock was frozen. There was a CUSIP change and the old shares hadn't transferred over in time. This was last Friday. On Friday the stock was around $0.09 and I bought another chunk because I knew the "new" shares would be able to be sold. I sold them on Monday at $0.12ish. Unfortunately the old shares continued to be frozen. The stock continued to rise.
I had about $250k in gains that I couldn't cash in. I just found out today that they were changed over and I sold all of my shares. While I'm pretty sure they will go higher, especially with the conference they have next week where the co-founder of Amgen will be speaking on their behalf, I wanted to lock in what ended up being the biggest gain (dollar wise, not percent wise) of my entire life. I'm actually surprised the stock hasn't tanked today because a lot of shareholders were waiting to sell. That's the reason I think it's going to go higher.
Anyway, what a freaking trip huh?
oh and of course I put all of the money into SNE today. I have a huge position in SNE (for me at least).
DeleteMakes my early morning rush look like Sleepy Hollow. Congrats!
DeleteWow, I'm really glad it worked out well. I hope you walked with a nice chunk O'change!
DeleteNice, and a set of balls.
ReplyDeleteAre they sore? LOL
Actually at this stage of life I'm too old for that sort of thing, but for you 20 year olds, go for it.
DeleteCP, XCO is trashed too, down 9 days in a row that's not retail selling.
ReplyDeleteXCO is on my watchlist...almost bought it today but then realized I don't have a clue about the industry...at least not enough to sleep well at night.
DeleteDifficult call on that one for me too, I have to think it's not bottomed yet except the daily RSI(7) has risen above 30 now it could easily slip back and the weekly RSI(7) is still sloped downward. Is that a C&H on weekly? ADX +DI has already cycled through 10 and priced continued to fall, that happens sometimes.
DeleteAre they running out of money to piss away?
Next week should reveal something about direction.
NSPH - I'm beginning to become disappointed, anybody have any good reasons this one could run higher?
ReplyDeleteI see so many other good ones that have run while this one actually fell, it's becoming depressing.
Maybe I should just off those shares I bought lower in hopes of a reload...... or hold on and simply add if price drops again..... ahhhh!
UGAZ @ 18.63. I'm going to hold this sucker through at least the end of the day. Maybe a few days, or a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteDue in part to an inspired reading of tof's post.
DeleteI take that back. No freaking way I can do it.
Delete2nd - I think the weekly report comes out tomorrow not today, right?
DeleteIt appears to be the case.
DeleteUGAZ off @ 18.8x...
DeleteI'll wait for the inventory report.
DeleteUp +0.3% YTD, guys!
ReplyDeleteENZ looks like it may be breaking out here. Technically its setup is perfect. Bouncing right off the 10wk EMA:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENZ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p05405490890
That's a C&H, ain't it?
Deletehttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp#axzz2GvyKYPWZ
DeleteI think I would probably classify it as a bull flag no? Not sure I don't really follow chart patterns a ton, other than W and island bottoms/tops.
DeleteMan, I just can't get myself excited, thinking about the possibility of a failed breakout.
DeleteYeah, I could maybe make a case showing a bull flag as the handle in the C&H but there a couple variations of bull flags and the C&H is more specific me thinks.
DeleteSeems I forget all the details and have to go back frequently to school myself.
Could be a big hit to GME:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.digitalspy.com/gaming/news/a448274/sony-to-block-pre-owned-games-on-ps4-disc-tagging-technology-patented.html
GME doesn't seem to be making money, and there's a gap up end of August that needs to close.
DeleteI'm not sure how this business model will fare going forward, OEM's can go direct and lock out resale unless some legislation prevents it. There should be such legislation, these IP materials should be free to trade once paid for, IMO.
This approach by Sony is a recurring theme which began even before the Betamax days, they even used to build their electronic components with odd-ball specs so as to make their products serviceable with only expensive Sony parts.
some readings on the overall market are looking pretty toppy. i still think we hit 1,500 but i think we will drop pretty quickly after that. this is where it gets hard to hold something you have conviction in.
ReplyDelete% of Stocks Above 50 DMA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&st=2011-03-01&en=(today)&id=p83462990329
% of Stocks Above 200 DMA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p84660094074
Still room to go on this one.
Summation Index:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p93873046494
Negative divergences and showing a short term sell signal.
CALM - This one's EBIDT positive and C&H failed, how 'bout it at some point?
ReplyDeleteThere's a gap up from $36, any chance this closes soon or does the IR play supersede?
DeleteVolume is on the high side, I'm thinking this is a result of folks looking for an exit.
DeleteClose that gap and let's scoop this one up?
AGO - Man, I'm extremely pleased with this one, sure wish I'd loaded the boat on that last pullback.
ReplyDeleteNice call on the Solars. All of them are on fire, pun intended.
ReplyDeleteTook profits too early on SPWR and just took half of SOL off.
DeleteSPWR up over 40% egad.
wow i didn't realize the potential double bottom in /ng. shit i should have looked at that a bit closer. looks like a nice setup for a potential island reversal with UNG/UGAZ.
ReplyDeletethat would be completed if it stays down around this level tomorrow then gaps higher on Sunday night.
DeleteSound familiar?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/this-guy-turned-20k-into-2-million-you-can-too-piX08ijaQ7WeFEyhxEau8g.html
Folks, check out the tumble in LPH today, the stock I had previously been buying at $1 and selling at $1.50, and then it "got away from me"...
ReplyDeleteI think it is due to the following article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1092561-longwei-petroleum-the-most-brazen-china-based-u-s-listed-rto-to-date?source=yahoo
I haven't had the time yet to read this article, but if you think it is bullshit, then LPH is a buy!
Oh boy, not another one!
DeleteFrom our friend at OT...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2013/01/intraday-breadth-3-january-2014.html#comments
Makes sense to have some kind of profit taking, robot's still long here.
DeleteLatest from the Fed..I take this a bullish for stocks.
ReplyDeleteEnd of bond buying in 2012, wow! Not sure why market eased off with that news cause it helps put things in a positive light but it's kinda dollar positive isn't it?
DeleteYes, I think it would be dollar positive. The market and the dollar have been correlated in the past.
Delete"I take this a bullish for stocks." "The market and the dollar have been correlated in the past."
DeleteYep, 100% agreed with half of that.
The headline is end of buying in 2013, not 2012.
DeleteHowever, it's a discussion of the Fed Reserve Board with some talking timeline and some talking employment targets.
They must want to jump on it early as they printed a massive amount and their balance sheet is insane.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/most-fomc-participants-see-qe3-buying-end-in-2013-minutes-show.html
This headline is blown in the first sentence.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/u-s-stock-futures-decline-on-concern-over-budget-deficit.html
Here's the headline I read:
Delete03-Jan-13 02:24PM U.S. Stocks Fall as Fed Sees Bond Buying Ending in 2012 at Bloomberg +7.86%
CPHD- Looks like there might have been a note from Cowen regarding manufacturing lagging.
ReplyDeleteROST - Uh huh, tell me the big boys fingerprints aren't all over this one.......
ReplyDeleteRIG - Bang!
ReplyDeleteI thought the Fed wanted to at least give the *feeling* to everyone that the purchases would be forever. Now we are back, once again, into a window purchase program, which is totally silly. If people know that it is temporary, they will totally ignore it...
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to, we are going to keep rates low until un-employment falls to 6.5%?
DeleteAre these stale minutes prior to that statement?
Bring back Greenspeak, please.
DeleteThat's a good point T3D. I wonder if it will ever be asked??
DeleteToo funny!!! They are talking about it now on CNBC.
Delete"What happened to, we are going to keep rates low until un-employment falls to 6.5%?"
DeleteThat is still the case with the Fed funds rate. Asset purchases are a different tool, which the minutes suggest they may not use past 2013.
And how to the resent elections play into all of this...and the lame 'deal' just reached??? Only the Shadow knows!!!!!!!
DeleteNever watch CNBC anymore, over three months, sometimes BloomB in the backgroud.
DeleteThe vacum may be better, but w/o out news you would not know the FED minutes caused the selloff in gold. Noboogie said it would be easy.
Bernanke's a Mucka Blucka!
Delete"That is still the case with the Fed funds rate. Asset purchases are a different tool, which the minutes suggest they may not use past 2013."
DeleteGood point David, but who will buy if they stop?
T3D- Agreed. Both are tied at the hip.
DeleteI take this as a positive in that the economy doesn't need this extra stimulus any more.
DeleteDamn Bloomberg's headline claimed FED minutes end bond buying 2012 but the first paragraph says $85B program ends 2013.....
DeleteIt's here till they go back and change it:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/u-s-stock-futures-decline-on-concern-over-budget-deficit.html?cmpid=yhoo
MLNX - Hmm, that's about a 20% haircut there since this one first came on the radar screen.
ReplyDeleteNice Pump and dump, huh?
I'm not sure why that Kelly chick doesn't get more air time. She seems pretty sharp and it almost as cute as I am.
ReplyDeleteYou're not nearly as cute, stop daydreaming!
DeleteThere's a zinger here somewhere...dang it my mind is just not very sharp.
DeleteWas that the girl who was trying to kiss Cooper Anderson's sardine on new years and he asked if she dropped something.
DeleteWell, for a old guy, pretty friggen close!
DeleteT3D- Hell no!!! Kelly Evans, red head on CNBC.
DeleteIt's Anderson Cooper and he's not interested in girls.
DeleteEven I know Mark doesn't have nice tits so he's clearly not qualified for CNBC or Bloomberg.
Maybe not nice tits but extreme nipples!
DeleteYeah bike riding in the rain and tights will do that, right Mark.
DeleteYou mean Coop's gay? Damm is that how you get the girls?
"Kelly Evans, red head"
DeleteThere aren't other colors in her hair to go with that, like green and orange are there, ie: does the carpet match the drapes?
The reason I ask is cause she could be my daughter cause I had my way with a peacock one night drunk, and NBC logo always reminds me of the temporary lapse of good judgment. If multicolored she inherited some of those looks from me.
Time to move all those PM $'s into medical testing devices!!
ReplyDelete6,5,4,3,2,1...............
DeleteI see today's pullback on the Fed news as profit taking after the last couple of really strong days as opposed to this news being a game changer in the markets.
ReplyDeleteA distinct possibility not to be discounted.
DeleteOil to Gas ratio:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC:$NATGAS&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p42739317089
Looks to me like short oil / long nat gas is a good play right now.
If not now then +/- days.
DeleteSoooo.....
ReplyDeletelong dollar, short gold, long TBT?
I'd love to get some of that TBT, but it always been early still. Just ask Kaas.
DeleteMeanwhile instead of buying a decaying carcass like TBT one could consider buying something that will eventually benefit from higher rates then sit back and wait while collecting the dividend.
DeleteX and AKS are red WTH/F.
ReplyDeletePKX is at top of range.
DeleteLast 3 tops in the market:
ReplyDelete1370
1420
1470
Next target: 1520? Is it this easy?
New closing high for ENZ in this bull flag / c&h. Was tempted to sell today but position is small so I might as well just hold it. Kind of think this could be a big winner.
ReplyDelete"I see today's pullback on the Fed news as profit taking after the last couple of really strong days as opposed to this news being a game changer in the markets."
ReplyDeleteWell, SLV and GLD gave up today all yesterday's gains and then some more... How can I win in this crazy environment, where good news of QE3 and QE4 do not cause a rally, but a mentioning of these programs ending causes a large sell-off?
I think it's by design. The Fed doesn't want higher commodity prices. They want inflation in specific areas.
DeleteThe other day Ritholtz had a quote from Volcker saying it was a mistake to let gold go to over $800. I think the Fed still wants to keep gold and silver where it is and jawboning on a day when they are seeing certain prices take off works to do that. They know that higher yields will benefit stocks, which they want, but they want to leave the PM's behind. It's their goal to F _ _ _ us over.
My hopes are high, my friend.
Deletewow. I just took a look at the oil chart and it is screaming short. i've read a few transcripts from small cap energy companies that have said they see some weakness and it makes me think that this is the perfect opportunity to short energy companies or go long an energy inverse etf. what is the best way to play this? any ideas?
ReplyDeleteSCO is one idea that comes to mind.
DeleteYep, SCO would be my weapon of choice. I'm warming up to your oil/gas trade idea.
DeleteUSD/JPY continues to chug higher. There is going to be a collective aha moment where investors swarm to the Japanese ADRs. The pressure is building. If the Nikkei breaks the April 2010 highs then it's off to the races...the next resistance point is 30% or so higher.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I see we had an emotional pullback but a stronger USD on Fed speak will just make the Yen look that much better.
Deleteyep...if the dollar rises more then the fall in the Yen will just continue to gain momentum. A good chunk of the 40 years of upward pressure on the Yen could be reversed rather quickly.
DeleteCan someone please walk me off the ledge and tell me that ZNGA shouldn't be bought? My thinking is it moves big after the next quarterly report. Best guess is it drops down to $2.10 to make a higher low and then people buy the sh*t out of it. Trades at a market cap of $1.9 Billion and has $1.6 Billion in cash/cash equiv. I think I'll wait for that setup knowing fully well that it will probably move higher before then and have a good earnings report and rocket higher.
ReplyDeleteI don't know man. My wife tells me all the time I'm worth less than the cash I have.
DeleteRemember GRVY - hard to go from one generation of games to the next. I have no opinion on ZNGA one way or another - I just know I used to get a lot of Farmville notifications from my FB friends, but now get none - oh, wait, I think I blocked those.
DeleteSo, no doubt a good buy if they can come up with new games. But, like GRVY, you're making a bet they can do this (or just trading for a bounce on expectations of such).
Man, SQNM sure set up nice off of 3.00.
ReplyDeletewow. what a great trading stock.
Deletehere is a small cap to check out:
ReplyDeleteSYNM
Fugly evening action in gold and silver. I just don't get it -- they are almost back to the level BEFORE rumors of QE3 started circulating. So all those $USD printed by the Fed as a part of QE3 and QE4 have no impact??? Where will these dollars go?
ReplyDeleteIsn't it where it was at 16:00?
DeleteCliff, what cliff? Debt, what debt? LMT/HII/UTX/NOC all kickin' butt as the war machine remains well fed.
DeleteHealth care, well that's another story about poor folk who can barely keep their family fed?
16:00 - Might depend on if Kitco's chart is adrift again?
DeleteI like this site...
Deletehttp://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
It used to be another name recently.
Gold is 1651.70 via Kitco, that link won't cooperate well enuf with my firefox browser that's set to block prying eyes.
DeleteZIP...It was nice to know ya. I wonder if anyone made any money there other than the shorts.
ReplyDeleteMaybe AVIS did?
DeleteThe FED talking shit. They read Bloomberg too.
ReplyDeleteGold Seen Rallying From Worst Streak in Eight Years: Commodities
Twenty analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, five were bearish and a further two were neutral. While hedge funds cut bullish bets to a four-month low last week as prices slid for a fifth week, investors are holding a near- record amount in gold-backed exchange-traded products that are now valued at $138.8 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-04/gold-seen-rallying-from-worst-streak-in-three-years-commodities.html
A man walks into the Election office, says to the receptionist:
ReplyDelete"I would like to put my name forward for the forthcoming elections to be an Independent candidate."
The receptionist replied "Certainly sir. Please fill out this form.''
He was filling the form alright until he came to the question - ''Are you circumcised?''
So he asked the receptionist - "Is that question necessary?"
She replied... "If you are circumcised you are not eligible"
He asked, "what difference would it make if I am circumcised?"
She replied...."To become a politician you have to be a complete prick"
Hmm, that explains a lot.
DeleteLincoln - Hmm, I really never thought Lincoln would be caught dead in a theater again ever.
DeleteFunny SNE trades -3.39% this morning and Nikkei 2250 trades up 2.82%.
ReplyDelete2 block trades so far
Posting from 5000 ft this am. Wtf is up with miners? Let me zip over to Cara for sentiment.
ReplyDeleteNew post
ReplyDeleteMark can u start one. Not easy posting with the Droid
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteI still believe that the run to $1,900 in gold was the price getting ahead of fundamentals and the expectations of QE. It is hard to know what the real price should be anymore.
Gold was still up 7% in 2012, so not a bad year. Perhaps 2013 is the first down year for gold in over 10 years. Would not be a big surprise as nothing goes up every year and as fear comes out of the market, one of the reasons for owning gold decreases and perhaps this trumps the money printing or I should say expectation of money printing as that is what really matters.
My feeling is it might make sense to attempt trading in and outta AUMN but this might be risky considering that production ramp is not far off.
DeleteCould be it gets smacked down in advance just to shake out weak hands? This seems to be an common occurrence for some reason, take GMO as an example.
Of course I have no idea of what I'm talking about, talk is cheap ain't it?
SVM - The slide accelerates........
ReplyDeleteOops, new post by 2nd.....
ReplyDeleteWell, perhaps 2nd's altitude prevents a new post......
ReplyDeleteThat's one hell of an altitude you've got this morning, 2nd!!!!
I can't seem to start a new post.
ReplyDeleteWe're falling apart here meanwhile 2nd's high as a kite, nice........
DeleteRocket Man?
DeleteAre we in some kind of post purgatory?
ReplyDeleteI have 2 GOOG accounts and can't remember the one linked to this blog. David can do one when he wakes up tomorrow.
DeleteWe need position updates:
DeleteAGO - Slow and steady, likes higher rates.
NLY - My guess is NLY likes higher rates as well, just not an inverted curve. Could get smacked down so tread lightly and prepare to add based on running assessment.
NSPH - Might just become a portfolio star, trying to be patient and glad to have added on the pullback.
MLNX - Still watching this thing flop around, wondering when the technology becomes day-old bread.
GMO - When's the pullback coming on this thing, 12th of whenever?
SQNM - We missed out, the news was encouraging and we were elsewhere during the pullback.
CP- I like that. We all should do this more often. I only have NSPH still.
DeleteAdded SNE and GGN
ReplyDeleteI hate like hell to, but I agree with BC.
The Fed was jawboning. We should learn to get used to it. It will be one of the emotional tools they use to get out of their predicament.
Wow, it seems cc has been shedding their PM position while talking it up. I cannot respect that, it's dirty and stinks IMO.
DeleteCSTR might be worth a trade here.
ReplyDeleteI literally just dumped my bowl of cereal in my lap.
ReplyDeleteParkinson's?
Delete12 mo. Chart: RSH
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't see how they survive.
DeleteIf I've learned anything, it's to ignore fundamental BS. I'm buying a base break out chart, I don't give a crap about RSH itself.
DeleteYou talk about the fundamentals for SNE.
DeleteLater gators!!!
Yep, the chart does seem to indicate the bottoming process is complete.
DeleteSNE - Pullback to support in preparation for the next leg up? $10.86 ish or something like that, maybe?
ReplyDeleteMET up over 11% for 2013 already - seems to be the hedge fund type play for higher rates.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to load some if the gap closes, could run for awhile though and may not return.
DeleteWow, two really good entries are well represented on the weekly chart.
DeleteSee where the ADX +DI cycled through 10:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MET&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p85279601872
Also note that if/when +DI spikes vertical like it did in April on this chart, there is typically a sharp retrace at some point to clean up gaps and whatnot chart damage:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MLNX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p41541022857
Using ADX +DI is far from peaches and cream though when trying to pick a bottom although intercepting 10 does at least provide temporary breathing room many times, as illustrated repeatedly in this chart:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p01021916822
Note though the tight (ADX 50 is goodentight) ADX/MACD pinch followed by the +DI=10 intercept in that last chart.
DeleteGoodbye to TEVA for now.
ReplyDeleteZNGA doing well, but just looking.
That Pincus guy is quite famous, apparently:
Deletehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-12-13/the-worst-ceos-of-2012
Playing with charts:
ReplyDeleteLet's take RSH for example, and try to remember although there are multiple ways to skin a cat I'm stuck at retard level when it comes to chart reading..... See the tight ADX/MACD pinch on this one, and the ADX +DI has reached 10 but not since the pinch formation peeked, just something to keep in mind:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p54788099635
ADX +/- DI
DeleteCP gave up using that indicator years ago, just never talked to me and seems to be a lagging indicator. IMO looking at price tells you much more.
Thx T3d, helpful suggestions are greatly appreciated. ;)
Delete$Coffee - I forgot, how was it we mentioned might be a decent mechanism for catching the end of the coffee pea roast?
ReplyDeleteOkay, so I'm attempting to research this and the deeper I go the more confused I become. What the heck is a peaberry bean and is coffee not really a pea or a bean but actually a type of berry instead?
DeleteI've got the black-eye bean thing down pact, still no luck trying to convince the world though....
This is dumb but I sold my ENZ at $2.96 to $2.98. Jan effect is strong right now...
ReplyDeleteMan, that Japanese PM guy keeps trying to make me sell him my dollars. Wonder why he wants them so badly, I don't expect they should become worth more as they continue aging.........
ReplyDeleteLife would be so much more rewarding if governments weren't all trying to manipulate the markets by buying and selling each other's debt and currencies, there should be laws against this unholy practice.
Gotta start somewhere, wonder if that two-faced moron Eric Cantor would listen to me if I were to call him insisting some sort of elephant bill should be introduced?
DeleteF*ck. I had ZNGA in the grasp of my hand but didn't pull the trigger.
ReplyDeleteTell me about it, AGO is currently killing NLY by a factor of 2x even with the div included.
DeleteBOIL is kickin' it today too, missing that train.
UNG double bottomed around $17.8 yesterday. We all saw it but failed to act.
Deletewell, actually 2nd saw it but he failed to hold.
DeleteI almost bought some of that yesterday off your comments since you have such a good eye, but waited too.
ReplyDeleteGLUU seems similiar in chart,but ZNGA has a longer weekly base.
Screw it threw my hat in the ring: long DMND at $13.98. Long 10% of port.
ReplyDeletehere is my thinking:
Delete(1) January effect is very strong - just look at LDK, FSLR, STP, etc (solars) and EXM, EGLE, DRYS (shippers). DMND is wildly beaten down.
(2) My theory on the 14-15 month downtrend is another technical case for a move higher...DMND peaked 16 months ago and the last big monthly red bar is was in November, month 14 after the peak in 2011.
This is a risky stock mainly because fundamentals are so weak: they had a marginally positive cash flow quarter last quarter but debt is about 2 times larger than their entire market cap. On the flip side, 40% short interest could really spark a massive move higher. That's why I'm not willing to risk more than 10% of my money.
I don't know what the debt covenants are and am not going to waste time reading up on them. This is a certain risk given how much debt they have. As such this puts the stock at risk of a big drop at any point in time. However, I would have to imagine that a company of this size (i.e., roughly $1 Billion in revs) would encourage their lenders to be lenient.
DeleteGold - Seems to have stopped falling, maybe.
ReplyDelete