I'm going through the stockcharts strong volume gainer screen. Most of the financials look like crap. The first one that looks interesting is GASS. Of course it has only rallied 100% since Dec 2011.
Stopping at NCT which looks great at the moment. And it's only up a little over 200% since Dec 2011. But, 4 qtr 2011 was the bottom over the last 2 years.
Craig- Would you call the recent sell off in SNE a potential TKO, or a resumption of the downtrend? What bothers me is the high volume behind last Friday's reversal.
It has a long downtrend and then consolidates in a range between 11.15 and approx. 12.60 (since June), then breaks down to 9.57, rally's back to resistance near the bottom of the previous range (11.15), then down to today's low. Landry would call it a retrace in a downward trend, although it has really been moving sideways. Too late to short and too early to call it a trend reversal.
It does have a bowtie up, so this *may* be a transitional pattern with a test of the 50 dma, but it also has that island reversal at 11.50 that confuses the issue. IMO it all depends on what the yen does here.
I mentioned it yesterday but I was too slow to flip the switch but DGAZ was the play. If you look at the price of nat gas adjusted for rolls its pretty evident that there is a rollover occurring. Additionally on the unadjusted price there is a trendbreak that occurred on that big down day a week ago. Not looking good but it is oversold right now.
For me, I ain't touching Nat Gas other than day trades.
The weekly chart for DGAZ looks really enticing. But it's an ultra and Nat Gas is at least in a bottoming / potential retest of the bottom phase. In this instance there may not be a discernible trend for a while.
BACML: First Majestic Silver: Top 2013 small cap producer reports strong fourth quarter 11 minutes ago
Our top pick small cap producer reported strong fourth quarter results this morning and is calling for more than a 30% increase in production yoy for 2013. Del Toro to start producing in a few days.
"NRC staff recommends costly filtered vents at some U.S. reactors
* Low natural gas and power prices could shut reactors * Filtered vents could cost up $15 million to $30 million * Filtered vents would be in addition t..."
LAKEWOOD, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 9, 2013-- General Moly, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE MKT: GMO) (TSX: GMO), a U.S.-based molybdenum mineral development, exploration and mining company, announced through its 80% owned Mt. Hope subsidiary, Eureka Moly, LLC, the initiation of preliminary construction activities including early well field development and clearing and grubbing of terrain that coincide with the Company’s ongoing cultural clearance efforts at its Mt. Hope Project in Eureka County, Nevada. A crew from Ames Construction, Inc. has been mobilized, and is initially focused on clearing the administrative office and mill site areas as well as clearing the water pipeline corridor in preparation for developing the well field and water distribution system to support heavy construction activities.
SQNM - Thought I saw someone buying the smackdown, not sure.
APA - BACML upgraded recently, I can get the report probably.
HA - BACML downgraded today.
CAT - BACML: Caterpillar Inc: China oversupply remains an issue – Raising PO 45 minutes ago
CAT's China excavator sales were down 41% YoY in December. Raising PO on improving global growth prospects, but we continue to see risks to China recovery, which could weigh on mining.
China Passenger Vehicle Industry BACML: 2012 PV sales +8% YoY; notable dealer-level de-stocking in Dec. China PV sales rose 6.2% YoY to 1.24 million units in Dec, pushing full year 2012 sales totaled 13.2 million units, up 8.0% YoY. We forecast China PV demand to rise 7% YoY in 2013, to 14.2mn units Download PDF Report (541kb) »
What an amazing example of talking their book, making up some silly storyline to sell, and repeating over and over even sillier examples of who might want to purchase the company because it grossed $100k more YOY. They should take that 5 point move they jawboned and get out...which is of course their intent.
Earbuds/phones are not rocket surgery or splitting the atom.
Fundamentals are awesome too. Could support a price all the way back to the old IPO highs. One insider that owns about 33 Million shares (15% or so) dumps 100k shares every few days. He's been doing it for 2 years now. I'd have to imagine that the pressure from his sales will abate soon. This company could be a multi bagger over the next couple of years. Free cash flow is awesome, they have a solid balance sheet after completely turning it around, valuation is dirt cheap (4 times free cash flow) and they have huge NOL carryforwards that they can use. Check out EGHT for someone else in their space.
"Apache Corp. (APA) Rating: Lowering to Neutral – Egypt weighs Apache remains a conundrum within the sector; on many measures the stock looks attractively valued – but in the past year the overhang that is some ~20% of production in Egypt has continued to weigh while managements’ attempts to dilute Egypt’s role in the investment case by stepping up spending on the lower 48 has left APA with one of the most capital intensive portfolios in the sector. After missing targets in 2012, production should accelerate over the next year – but the step up in spending leaves no obvious room to support the share price through either a change in dividend strategy or buy backs of what looks like an undervalued share price on per barrel metrics. Looking across our coverage we believe that the relative merits of APA’s investment case can be better sourced elsewhere – through Pioneer for ‘pure play’ Permian exposure or OXY for the same traditionally conservative management but with a greater near term focus on addressing recent share underperformance. Critically, our discussions with investors suggests limited appetite for a company with 1/5th exposure to Egypt; while this is difficult to quantify, recent events that have arguably escalated country specific risk leaves us with limited confidence outside of improving sentiment to the broader sector on the line of sight on the catalysts that can drive relative outperformance from here."
1/7/13 - "Initiating/Reinstating Coverage SolarCity (SCTY, US$14.4, C-1-9) The first of its kind – Initiate at Buy, $21 price objective SolarCity is the first publicly traded company focused on the business of leasing solar power arrays to customers. We believe that SolarCity’s business model has significant growth potential, and we also believe that the company has built an industry-leading brand and strong competitive position. We expect the addressable market to continue growing. The company’s business is capitalintensive and financially complex. Buying and installing solar arrays is expensive, while the resulting cash flows tend to stretch well into the future. As the business grows and cash flows begin to accumulate, however, we see the company generating substantial value for shareholders."
Does anyone know if a trader sells a dividend paying stock within two days of the div date of the three day transaction clearing is used or is it the actual date of sale?
If you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend.
So the time between ex-div and the recording date accounts for the three days it takes for transactions to clear?
For example: CNSL's ex-div date is the 11th. The recording date is the 15th. If I were to sell shares at the close on the 10th, I would not get the div, even though it takes three days for the transaction to clear?
But if I sold on the open on the 11th, the ex-div date, I would. Correct?
In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission stipulates that there are three days of settlement for stock trades.[3] The ex-dividend date is normally two business days (3 minus 1) before the record date.
Man, that is one well-written treatise on the subject of market psychology. I downloaded and saved it. Marks is right- this isn't the year to be aggressively long.
That POS.
ReplyDeleteMore likely, everyone and their uncles and aunts had bets on an increase in volatility. We know what that means.
DeleteIt means that volatility won't return until they get hammered for going long.
DeleteI'm going through the stockcharts strong volume gainer screen. Most of the financials look like crap. The first one that looks interesting is GASS. Of course it has only rallied 100% since Dec 2011.
ReplyDeleteOut of time for now.
ReplyDeleteStopping at NCT which looks great at the moment. And it's only up a little over 200% since Dec 2011. But, 4 qtr 2011 was the bottom over the last 2 years.
How about this? We start screening for stocks whose prices are expected to decline.
ReplyDeleteCraig- Would you call the recent sell off in SNE a potential TKO, or a resumption of the downtrend? What bothers me is the high volume behind last Friday's reversal.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I looked at a 12 month daily chart of SNE.
DeleteIt has a long downtrend and then consolidates in a range between 11.15 and approx. 12.60 (since June), then breaks down to 9.57, rally's back to resistance near the bottom of the previous range (11.15), then down to today's low. Landry would call it a retrace in a downward trend, although it has really been moving sideways. Too late to short and too early to call it a trend reversal.
It does have a bowtie up, so this *may* be a transitional pattern with a test of the 50 dma, but it also has that island reversal at 11.50 that confuses the issue. IMO it all depends on what the yen does here.
Good stuff. I agree.
DeleteI'm tried, and only scanned this, but I bet I agree with it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.stratfor.com/weekly/crisis-middle-class-and-american-power?utm_so
Will read it first thing tomorrow...
Dracula, (David), what say you?
Seems like the dream of home ownership for lower middle class is becoming less and less likely.
DeleteUGAZ investors getting gassed (again).
ReplyDeleteNGas futes 3.155...
DeleteI mentioned it yesterday but I was too slow to flip the switch but DGAZ was the play. If you look at the price of nat gas adjusted for rolls its pretty evident that there is a rollover occurring. Additionally on the unadjusted price there is a trendbreak that occurred on that big down day a week ago. Not looking good but it is oversold right now.
DeleteFor me, I ain't touching Nat Gas other than day trades.
The weekly chart for DGAZ looks really enticing. But it's an ultra and Nat Gas is at least in a bottoming / potential retest of the bottom phase. In this instance there may not be a discernible trend for a while.
DeleteBACML: First Majestic Silver: Top 2013 small cap producer reports strong fourth quarter
ReplyDelete11 minutes ago
Our top pick small cap producer reported strong fourth quarter results this morning and is calling for more than a 30% increase in production yoy for 2013. Del Toro to start producing in a few days.
2.6 mln silver eqv ounces (2.3M silver ounces) in Q4; produced a record 9.1 mln silver eqv. ounces (8.3 mln silver ounces) in 2012 Briefing.com
DeleteI Ain't got no silver, 'cause it's $30/oz spot.
Reuters:
ReplyDelete"NRC staff recommends costly filtered vents at some U.S. reactors
* Low natural gas and power prices could shut reactors
* Filtered vents could cost up $15 million to $30 million
* Filtered vents would be in addition t..."
Who makes these vents?
BACML: Machinery Industry: China's hydraulic excavator sales fall 32% YoY in Dec
ReplyDeleteThat's one of those 'pieces of the puzzle' that will appear prescient in hindsight.
DeleteAGO - $15.83 vs $15.72, potential double top but if that's an inverse H&S then seems the geometric projection exceeds $20?
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the second peak is slightly lower than the first...... hmmm
MET - Potential double top on this one as well?
DeleteBoth have gaps up that need to close, will this be another example of gaps that never close?
DeleteAGO - Or, is the IH&S geometric target $16.50? Looks like it.
DeletePAL - Woweeeeee, still movin'
ReplyDeleteLAKEWOOD, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 9, 2013-- General Moly, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE MKT: GMO) (TSX: GMO), a U.S.-based molybdenum mineral development, exploration and mining company, announced through its 80% owned Mt. Hope subsidiary, Eureka Moly, LLC, the initiation of preliminary construction activities including early well field development and clearing and grubbing of terrain that coincide with the Company’s ongoing cultural clearance efforts at its Mt. Hope Project in Eureka County, Nevada. A crew from Ames Construction, Inc. has been mobilized, and is initially focused on clearing the administrative office and mill site areas as well as clearing the water pipeline corridor in preparation for developing the well field and water distribution system to support heavy construction activities.
ReplyDeleteI don't why exactly, but I sense the broad indexes leading sidelined investors to an 'All Aboard' slaughter.
ReplyDeleteJust saying.
I wonder why APA continues to under preform??
ReplyDeleteHLF news... Holly cow.
ReplyDeleteSmokin'!
DeleteDavid? You ok?
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/zorb-ride-russian-mountains-proves-deadly-102056296.html
UGAZ @ 17.63...
ReplyDeleteA rip-ur-face-off spike down in UNG. No worries. I've learned my lesson, and am sitting unperturbed.
DeleteToo late to short and everything else looks negative, below the 200, well below the broken trendline and headed for the previous low.
DeleteSomeday it may have a log way to trend higher but right now it's F'ed up.
I mean LONG way to trend higher.
DeleteLogarithmic trend?
DeleteIf we could get it to conform to the 200 up or down.
DeleteSQNM - Thought I saw someone buying the smackdown, not sure.
ReplyDeleteAPA - BACML upgraded recently, I can get the report probably.
HA - BACML downgraded today.
CAT - BACML: Caterpillar Inc: China oversupply remains an issue – Raising PO 45 minutes ago
CAT's China excavator sales were down 41% YoY in December. Raising PO on improving global growth prospects, but we continue to see risks to China recovery, which could weigh on mining.
APA - My bad, that was an BACML downgrade.
DeleteChina Passenger Vehicle Industry BACML: 2012 PV sales +8% YoY; notable dealer-level de-stocking in Dec.
ReplyDeleteChina PV sales rose 6.2% YoY to 1.24 million units in Dec, pushing full year 2012 sales totaled 13.2 million units, up 8.0% YoY. We forecast China PV demand to rise 7% YoY in 2013, to 14.2mn units
Download PDF Report (541kb) »
AVP - ?
ReplyDeleteBack to the prior range. More Missouri.
DeleteNever say never, but...
PNC - ?
ReplyDeleteEntry just above the 200. Looks like a retrace until then. It has the MA's on it's side but it has to show me. Nice looking knock-out so far.
DeleteI think GGN goes at least to 13.85.
ReplyDeleteForget NG, solars are hot.
I have a position in SOL and SPWR. They are volatile.
SNE to buy SKUL, maybe.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/skullcandy-turns-takeover-target-after-66-drop-real-m-a.html
What an amazing example of talking their book, making up some silly storyline to sell, and repeating over and over even sillier examples of who might want to purchase the company because it grossed $100k more YOY. They should take that 5 point move they jawboned and get out...which is of course their intent.
DeleteEarbuds/phones are not rocket surgery or splitting the atom.
Rocket surgery sounds like a tactical maneuver, splitting the atom strategic?
DeleteCheck out this chart:
ReplyDeleteVG
Fundamentals are awesome too. Could support a price all the way back to the old IPO highs. One insider that owns about 33 Million shares (15% or so) dumps 100k shares every few days. He's been doing it for 2 years now. I'd have to imagine that the pressure from his sales will abate soon. This company could be a multi bagger over the next couple of years. Free cash flow is awesome, they have a solid balance sheet after completely turning it around, valuation is dirt cheap (4 times free cash flow) and they have huge NOL carryforwards that they can use. Check out EGHT for someone else in their space.
I bought some today at $2.48 and $2.50.
NGas futes 3.09?
ReplyDelete$3.05 was the target mentioned last week, right?
DeleteBACML Energy Forecast Summary 1/4/13:
ReplyDeleteTable 1: Sector Outlook: Relative View
Ticker Rating PO Upside %
APC BUY 120.00 57.2%
OXY BUY 120.00 52.9%
HES BUY 85.00 56.8%
NBL BUY 135.00 30.8%
MRO BUY 45.00 42.5%
PXD BUY 150.00 34.8%
CHK BUY 36.00 114.7%
XOM BUY 105.00 18.6%
DVN BUY 75.00 40.5%
RRC BUY 77.00 21.5%
CLR NEUTRAL 105.00 38.1%
APA NEUTRAL 95.00 14.4%
COG NEUTRAL 54.00 8.2%
EOG NEUTRAL 135.00 9.5%
SWN NEUTRAL 41.00 22.5%
CVX NEUTRAL 125.00 13.7%
COP U/P 62.00 4.8%
"Apache Corp. (APA)
DeleteRating: Lowering to Neutral – Egypt weighs
Apache remains a conundrum within the sector; on many measures the stock
looks attractively valued – but in the past year the overhang that is some ~20% of
production in Egypt has continued to weigh while managements’ attempts to
dilute Egypt’s role in the investment case by stepping up spending on the lower
48 has left APA with one of the most capital intensive portfolios in the sector.
After missing targets in 2012, production should accelerate over the next year –
but the step up in spending leaves no obvious room to support the share price
through either a change in dividend strategy or buy backs of what looks like an
undervalued share price on per barrel metrics. Looking across our coverage we
believe that the relative merits of APA’s investment case can be better sourced
elsewhere – through Pioneer for ‘pure play’ Permian exposure or OXY for the
same traditionally conservative management but with a greater near term focus
on addressing recent share underperformance.
Critically, our discussions with investors suggests limited appetite for a company
with 1/5th exposure to Egypt; while this is difficult to quantify, recent events that
have arguably escalated country specific risk leaves us with limited confidence
outside of improving sentiment to the broader sector on the line of sight on the
catalysts that can drive relative outperformance from here."
1/7/13 - "Initiating/Reinstating Coverage
ReplyDeleteSolarCity (SCTY, US$14.4, C-1-9) The first of its kind –
Initiate at Buy, $21 price objective
SolarCity is the first publicly traded company focused on the business of leasing
solar power arrays to customers. We believe that SolarCity’s business model has
significant growth potential, and we also believe that the company has built an
industry-leading brand and strong competitive position. We expect the
addressable market to continue growing. The company’s business is capitalintensive
and financially complex. Buying and installing solar arrays is expensive,
while the resulting cash flows tend to stretch well into the future. As the business
grows and cash flows begin to accumulate, however, we see the company
generating substantial value for shareholders."
"What goes around comes around", or "Where's my Karma Kleanser?"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-04/nobelist-gore-getting-70-million-from-qatar-funded-al-jazeera.html?cmpid=yhoo
GDXJ - Needs to remain consistently above $20 and not drop below, before it can double.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know if a trader sells a dividend paying stock within two days of the div date of the three day transaction clearing is used or is it the actual date of sale?
ReplyDeleteIf you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend.
DeleteThus, if you sell on ex-div, you will collect the dividend.
DeleteSo the time between ex-div and the recording date accounts for the three days it takes for transactions to clear?
DeleteFor example: CNSL's ex-div date is the 11th. The recording date is the 15th.
If I were to sell shares at the close on the 10th, I would not get the div, even though it takes three days for the transaction to clear?
But if I sold on the open on the 11th, the ex-div date, I would. Correct?
"I sold on the open on the 11th, the ex-div date, I would."
Delete"If I were to sell shares at the close on the 10th, I would not get the div"
Yes, that is my understanding.
In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission stipulates that there are three days of settlement for stock trades.[3] The ex-dividend date is normally two business days (3 minus 1) before the record date.
DeleteUGAZ off at 17.49. I want to sleep well tonight.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - PPS = 4pi r^2, where r^2 must be 4^-1
ReplyDeletepretty obvious inverted H&S on HPQ.
ReplyDeleteThis PDF read from Marks is excellent. I think 2nd would really enjoy, I know I did.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketfolly.com/2013/01/howard-marks-fixed-income-returns-not.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarketFolly+%28Market+Folly%29
Man, that is one well-written treatise on the subject of market psychology. I downloaded and saved it. Marks is right- this isn't the year to be aggressively long.
DeleteRisk assessment is key.
Deletenew post
ReplyDeleteMEOH - Within 3% of it's previous high, does this indicate that perhaps risk has increased?
ReplyDeleteOccasionally, one must rely on common sense.