(a) I gave up on the miners at Monday's close.
(b) The miners rocked on Tuesday, up +2%, to my chagrin.
(c) I sensed they would continue to rock on Wednesday (but how much of the sixth sense was unduly influenced by my chagrin), and opened RYPMX at Tuesday's close.
(d) Silver/gold spot prices did in fact spike straight up at the open. Miners followed- but there wasn't a freaking thing I could do with the mutual fund position until the close. Spot prices ended the day near the highs. Miners, however, gave it all back-wtf. I did not close the position in RYPMX. In addition, I opened positions in GDX/GDXJ/AUMN/MUX. That was my mistake. Rather than capping my losses even earlier than I ultimately did, I continued driving in the wrong direction, and I floored the gas pedal doing it!
(e) I closed down the positions today- at 3x the original paper loss in place the night before.
No condolences, please. I learn best with a strap right across my back.
Overall hit -1.7%. Thus turning a YTD gain of +0.93% into a YTD loss of -0.84%.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how the mind works. We start out visualizing a +2% move. The following day, the position moves against us -0.44%. ---- that, let's hang in for another day. The next day the loss deepens to -1.7%. That starts to hurt, so we double down. 24 hours later, it's ----ing -5%. No ----ing way! Double down again, -15%. wtf, ---- this! All in! ....-40%. OK, it's an investment now, with a 1-2 year horizon.
ReplyDeleteThey say traders pay tuition. I plan to make the most of my latest lesson.
ReplyDeleteI get that losses are part of the game. But I never want to lose sight of the fact that's it's real money I'm playing with. Today's loss is small, relatively speaking. It's also money that could have been put to use somewhere else.
DeleteWe joke about the markets being a casino. It is a casino. Sure, many players walk away with serious change. How many of them keep it? Treat your gains with respect.
DeleteMy friend has this above his computer,
Delete"If you do not bet you cannot win, if you lose all your chips you cannot bet."
Nothing worth anything in life is easy.
Delete"I haven't felt the way I do now, since just a second ago."
DeleteI'm beginning to seriously consider just 5-10 trades in 2013.
ReplyDeleteI probably had about that amount last year with never more than maybe 70% cash committed at any one time.
DeleteGood post-mortum.
DeleteCOH - A victim of the weaker yen, among others.
CRB RIND Index - Do you guys follow this index at all? It seems to be a leading indicator:
ReplyDeleteRecent chart:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A-2OMFVogww/UQrNr1GQrnI/AAAAAAAAIPc/KDIY6iI3Ixk/s1600/rind+week+jpeg.JPG
And some background:
"As we stated in last week’s letter, the CRB Raw Industrial index can serve as something of a canary in a coal mine for commodities and the economy in general. In 2008, it peaked a full 2 months before the commodity bubble collapsed in July 2008."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/289883-outlook-for-gold-and-qe3
Gold - How about going short gold as opposed to long?
ReplyDeleteLDK! !?!?!?
ReplyDeleteOn the list. If it reverses and resumes the upward mo.
DeleteCLF - Did well today....
ReplyDeleteVG - Train leaving the station?
ReplyDeleteALSK - Wow, no mercy at all.
ReplyDeleteCC - did you get out of JVA in time?
ReplyDeleteYes. I've been nibbling on this pullback though.
DeleteAnd YES, this is undisciplined and counter to my methodology....although it did finish yesterday bouncing off the 200.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OlO4KcZGE4
ReplyDeleteTyson Foods, Inc.: F1Q13 beat, outlook raised; Buy
ReplyDeleteVale SA.: Stronger than expected production
CP,
ReplyDeletere your comment on Mutual FUnds flows from yesterday.
The reality is that seeing money go back into equity mutual funds is a good thing. The alarmist media will point out that the flows were higher than the peak in 2000 (or something like that), but we have had equity outflows for several years, so this is just the beginning or the move back to stocks, so will be supportive for many years before it becomes a concern.
BB - I'm not sure really how high indexes can move however there's plenty of incorrectly priced value to be had.
DeleteThat's all we realy need to know and find.
Lots of green on my screen today! ;)
Looks like we're going up, huh?
ReplyDeleteGood jobs report. Calendar guys saying Feb. 1 typically one of the best.
Deletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/byron-wien-major-sell-off-coming-2013-1
ReplyDeleteByron Weins thinks we are down this year, but more interesting I think is the chart showing years that start with January up more than 5% and how the rest of the year plays out - average year return of 24% and every year up remainder of the year except 1987 (which was still positive including January).
VE - $12.98 is the weekly high, I'm watching!
ReplyDeleteAGO - This son of a gun is strong! None of that funny pullback business yet nothing's changed?
ReplyDeleteMDW
ReplyDeleteCo announced that Fritz Schaudies, the co's CFO, will be resigning from Midway. He will remain in his current position until a suitable replacement has been found and the transition has been made. That process will likely take a few months.
Want to retire? If you're like me, you MUST listen to your inner voice sometimes.
ReplyDeleteNO! Not that inner scaredy-cat voice, the one that says "Buy $50K worth of MJNA".
F _ _ K!
JVA - Any good reasons this one sold off, it went the wrong way?!?!?
ReplyDelete