Friday, February 22, 2013
02/22/13 The Bounce
I'll be away again, for the final session of a 2-day conference in SF. I thought about opening a position in RYEUX before leaving yesterday morning, and at this point it appears it would have been profitable. And of course, I wasn't around the day before to reopen a position in RYPMX following the -5% shellacking. That's two missed opportunities in two days. As my Mom likes to say, 'That's the way the ball bounces!'
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The war on drugs. We all thought it was about heroin, cocaine, and marijuana. No, bro. These days It's prescription drug abuse, which now accounts for more deaths per year than motor vehicle accidents.
ReplyDeleteMore people die after overdosing on Vicodin and Oxycondone than heroin, meth, and cocaine combined.
DeleteSilver and gold selling off again? The pain train.
ReplyDeleteCARB/AGO - Watching these. It's gonna be tough staying away from SPXS under $13.50
ReplyDelete"Futures are up ahead of the open on the Fed's Bullard's optimistic interview."
ReplyDeleteThere were 4 pain clinics in Broward County (FL) in 2005. In 2006, after shutting down online Internet pharmacies, the DEA noticed 60 pain clinics. In one county! For crying out, how many people in Broward County have back pain? Then over 100 clinics in 2007. How many people, period?
ReplyDeleteIt turns out most of the dudes lined up outside the clinics (at 7 am any given day!) are from out of state. You would think a guy in Boston with intractable pain might consider Mass General, one of the top hospitals in the country. How about a specialist at Columbia Pres in NYC? Johns Hopkins? Nah, that's a dump. No, these guys want to travel to Florida, where docs are laying on hands and healing dudes in 1-2 minutes. Heck, there are signs outside that say they'll pay YOU if they make you wait too long! The docs have to be good. They live in $8m houses and drive Ferraris.
Pain "clinics", eh?
DeleteAnd somehow the "treatment" is the same script for everyone....
DeleteDon't forget benzodiazepines....
It's more likely they already went several times to each of those clinics before traveling to Fla. The third or fourth time they looked at the patient records and sent them home with aspirin.
DeleteYou're right. The miracle cure is always the same. Oxy, hydro, alprazolam.
DeleteWell....you know my position on this....
DeleteHomeopathics for the docs.
Just a little lead in the ear cures everything.
1508 - There it is..... go,go,go.... no looking back!?!?!?!
ReplyDeleteTZOO, bro!
ReplyDeleteHun? It's barely trading?
DeleteSLW @ 31.95...
ReplyDeleteLittle bit of a bid @ 1.90 for NSPH. Will be interesting to see which way it goes.
ReplyDeleteSelling into strength, it seems. Knew it.....
ReplyDeleteAdding GDX @ 38.18...
ReplyDeleteAGO - 5 days to earnings.... and a gap up in chart.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Has not collapsed following earnings, is the bear going into hibernation?
Added to SLW @ 31.90...
ReplyDeleteNEM - Volume seems high at 2.2M
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYing Yang is gold mining equities at capitulation?
ReplyDeletePer Obermeyer Asset Management
“What this illustration highlights is that the observable price movements of an investment and
the emotions that come with them often run counter to future performance. Moreover, short term price moves are rarely tied to actual changes in long-term fundamentals. Instead, they are usually related to an aggregate change in the perception of potential changes. Price moves often simply represent institutional investors’ position jockeying in what famed investor Seth Klarman calls “the performance derby.” We have certainly seen large moves in the price of gold mining stocks of late.”
2nd may like the cycle of emotions chart.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-21/gold-versus-gold-miners-has-time-come-flip-switch
Went long some SAND (9.41) near close. I like the fact that I have someone very experienced about making the choice of which companies to provide streams of financing to do. There is no way I could duplicate his knowledge of mining expertise.
Gold looks promising at 2AM ET but whose knows if the NY boys will do their takedown on que.
Holders of gold/silver mining shares have surely been “Streamrolled.”
Ha, "Streamrolled", good one.
DeleteMeg Whitman just doesn't work for me. Even if I close my eyes and just listen.
ReplyDeleteCan't escape the mental picture, can you?
DeleteYou prefer "plus" size, b/c they're slow runners.
DeleteWonder how many times CNBC is going to replay that segment where she talks about "laying some pipe" ???
DeleteGMO still bending.
ReplyDeleteYep, no news for Sundance yet.
DeleteWonder how many more times GMO plans on testing $3.14?
DeletePACB - Heading for 200SMA, then we see.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Not ready for prime time.
ReplyDeleteBalt's chart looks good. Most of the shippers hung in ok on this dip so far. BALT and DSX look like the best charts to me. BALT is highly leveraged to the spot rate in the BDI. Any resurrection in that and the stock should do very well...
DeleteThanks. Fair enuff, I'll keep tracking it and performing DD.
DeleteLooking better now. If this is IH&S, points to $4.20. Right neckline test in progress? Four times tested neckline now would be as good as any seems like?
Deleteclosing my /ES swing right here at 06, gave up some but I don't want to hold into the lunch time trade.
ReplyDeleteLNCO offed
ReplyDeletePAL - I guess this one moves under $1 soon enough on further cash requirements, ore content is my concern as it's not lived up to expectation?
ReplyDeleteMy suspicion is this is may explain why management was attempting to diversify into gold but has of course repeatedly failed.
XCO someone likes this today. 5 block trades, short cover or luv?
ReplyDeleteDecent place to cover. BRY was snapped up, maybe similar situation?
DeleteCOW - No cow, horse please! Beef, it's what you want......
ReplyDeleteSFD - Recovering from recall.
ReplyDeleteDF - Not exactly falling, either. Hanging in there.
COOL - Remind me to keep an eye on this one....
ReplyDeleteToo many skeptics out there IMO. Let's see if they can recoup half the losses from this pullback. If so it's game on.
ReplyDeleteHere's one for TOF. YRCW?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/ytd-2013-major-index-performance/
YRCW will go nuts at some point. Q2 or Q3 should show positive net income. I think this hits $30 at some point over the next 12 months if they post positive net income. they have to thread a needle to get to positive net income and show ability to begin paying down debt over the next 18 months (i.e., before debt comes due in 2015). if they do this they should be able to refinance at much lower rates and bring down the interest rate on their debt. leverage is friggin astronomical. the hole to thread that needle has been getting slightly bigger over the past 2 quarters.
DeleteRYPMX at the close.
ReplyDeleteTZOO goes apeshit on any positive news flow. Just need something to ignite it. weekly RSI_EMA looks ready.
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think SNE won't get down to the magical 10wk EMA test. I bought a 1/2 position at $14.06 today.
Now 100% long with TZOO, SNE, NOK, SNE. Still holding my whopping 3,000 shares of PACB for shits and giggles.
Sorry...TZOO, YRCW, SNE, NOK.
DeleteXCO went long near close 6.45ish.
ReplyDeleteBlock buying all day, 20 total, -5% from where last sold. I do not know if short covering or not but I will take the risk and try to go along with what happened today.
Vol 2xs 10 day avg
Somehow go to a Zero Hedge article and found this - timeless advice:
ReplyDeleteJesse Livermore's Trading Rules Written in 1940
1. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.
2. Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.
3. Don't trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.
4. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.
5. The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.
6. As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.
7. One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.
8. The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride.
9. Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high.
10. Never sell a stock because it seems high-priced.
11. I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a new high on its movement after having had a normal reaction.
12. Never average losses.
13. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator.
14. Wishful thinking must be banished.
15. Big movements take time to develop.
16. It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements.
17. It is much easier to watch a few than many.
18. If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole.
19. The leaders of today may not be the leaders of two years from now.
20. Do not become completely bearish or bullish on the whole market because one stock in some particular group has plainly reversed its course from the general trend.
21. Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket.
Use the force, not Oxicodeine!
ReplyDeletehttp://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kul7d6xY4q1qzfebyo1_500.jpg
BEBE looks a good setup, especially if it can clear $4.22 with some volume.
ReplyDeletewow, just saw HPQ at $19.20 - nice move from last fall for a "dead" large cap tech company
ReplyDeleteCloud server business?
Deletep/e under 5 helps
Delete10 year double bottom on the chart. price to sales is still significantly higher than SNE
Deletep/fcf is better than SNE? Losses are significantly greater, wow, so large... And yet cap is still larger.
DeleteInsiders at YRCW surrendered 36,312 shares on Wednesday to "pay taxes or cover the cost of an option exercise". Does anyone know if this is sold on the open market? It may have been the reason for the most recent dip and if so I would have to imagine it bounces right back up.
ReplyDeleteI tend to think it means open market sale.
DeleteHXM - This one also has a low pe
ReplyDeleteRadioactive leak in Wa. state? URA oughta' really jump now....
ReplyDeleteGASS - New 52 week - Jumpin' Jack Flash!
ReplyDeleteFIRE - This puppy was hot today.
ReplyDeleteMJNA - Why would shorts cover if this is fraud?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete