Now that I've had time to reflect on my spontaneous trades, let me break it down. Keep in mind that retrospective analysis is just that- my best take on why I entered the trade(s).
An unexpected early morning decline in SLW took prices to new 2013 lows. All I know is the sixth sense immediately flashed a buy signal, and I bought in. As CP pointed out, I should then have immediately sold into the +1% spike that followed. In fact, I was preparing a sell order at 32.3x, but by the time 'Order Preview' appeared, prices had already dropped to 32.2x. They never really recovered. So I did the next best thing- added at 31.9x, along with opening a position in GDX. Naturally, prices retested the lows all day. No worries on my part, however. Why?
(a) I'd already skirted a -5% drop in the sector on Monday.
(b) We've now had a mini-correction in the broad indexes, and ST negativity has been worked off, IMO. (Miners usually do not perform well during broad market corrections.)
(c) Who's left to sell? Seriously. The sector was 'pressured' all day, but miners handled it well, and the sellers were likely comprised of recent dead cat bulls locking in what profits they had following failure of the opening spike.
I sense a more serious rally attempt next week.
GDXJ - This one closed above it's opening price, technically one could claim today was the entry.
ReplyDeleteNEM - Barely moved on upbeat earnings, tough crowd!
And to think I was anticipating BAC might retest it's $3 low but it didn't and probably won't. Wonder if gold in a vicious twist of irony, retests $700 in my lifetime?
I'm claiming today was the entry.
DeleteBALT - I think we've seen the low.....
ReplyDeletejb- Wow, you had more faith than I would have, holding overnight. Nice trade.
ReplyDeleteDrug-seeking pt in ED:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUDJXQNP9yg
This is so spot on.
DeleteIn 1983 a guy comes around a blind turn on a 2 lane state hwy in MY lane and runs into me head on at 50 mph. (I was doing 50, I have no idea how fast he was going).
Let me just say here, if you can...AVOID doing this. Bopth vehicles totaled and my left knee cap was pulverized.
I'm in the ER and this fucking idiot (excuse my French, I know this term is not nearly descriptive enough) is telling the nurse he needs more pain medication. The nurse says, "I; sorry Mr. Harling (actual name) you have had too many narcotics already, we can't give you any more. We can give you _ _ _ _." He says, "That doesn't work one me".
I am wheeled in ot the X-ray room and now I can see the State Patrolman now questioning "Mr. Harling" asking "Where did you get this" while dangling a full bag of pot over Mr. Dumbshit.
Next scene: Me talking to the paralegal for my attorney who is telling me Mr. Harling (who is on his FOURTH drivers license under various iterations of his or some family member's name for driving drunk or intoxicated), was coming back from a tavern in a local town where he and his junkie friend got in a fight (Mr. Harling is a black dude in extreme white logger country), filled up his gas tank, ate 11 valium (washing them down with swill at the tavern), drove to his girlfriends house where he got in a fight with her for 7 more valium (which he ingested) and then got behind the wheel and plowed into me coming home with Thanksgiving groceries.
Apparently non-benzo/opiate drugs are not the only things that don't work on these fucking idiots (my French is still inadequately descriptive, words fail me at times like this).
Guess which party had insurance and which didn't.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI had a friend that a drunk driver hit head on like you. The doctors told him he would never walk or play tennis again. It took him four years to accomplish, but he was a shadow of his old selfon the tennis court.
DeleteDo you have an artifical knee now CC?
No, I was lucky (?) to have one of the best military trained orthos in the business. He had a lot of practice. He pinned most of the pieces back together and I did a lot of pt. It has ratchet-like sounds and hasn't bothered me too much. can still feel it is not as robust as the right knee but so far, so good.
Delete"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." -Peter Lynch
ReplyDelete18. If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole.
ReplyDeleteThis sounds like a vote for trading 52 week highs off pullbacks.
12. Never average losses.
"trading 52 week highs off pullbacks."
DeleteSuch as APPL?
The City and County of San Francisco only recently began to recognize the extent of Workers’ Compensation fraud associated with the abuse and diversion of narcotics. The motivation behind fraudulent claims has changed; whereas in the past patients were ‘busted’ with video that clearly belied claims of disabililty, the typical case today involves detailed reviews of medical records and CURES statements. A typical ‘bust’ occurs when prescription records show chronic/multiple prescriptions for (usually high-dose) hydrocodone or oxycodone, yet urine testing is negative for the presence of opiates.
ReplyDeleteThe US comprises 4.6% of the world’s population, yet Americans consume 80% of all opiates, and 99% of all HPAP (hydrocodone/APAP)? The rest of the world relies mainly on NSAIDS, acetaminophen/paracetamol, tramadol, and physical therapy!
ReplyDeleteSo in September, 2010 Purdue finally introduces a reformulated Oxycontin, which 'gels up' when users attempt to crush the tablet for snorting or injection.
ReplyDeleteCompliance officers for drug wholesalers note a recurring pattern in statistics. Beginning September, 2010 pharmacy orders for Oxycontin fall off a cliff, with a corresponding rise in orders for OxyIR [immediate release]. More investigation reveals that patients who used to tell their docs they needed Oxycontin 80 mg b/c OxyIR didn't work for them, are now saying the new formulation of Oxycontin isn't working and want OxyIR. There is a spike in scripts written for OxyIR 30 mg #240, rather than the usual Oxycontin 80 mg #90. Coincidentally, the maximum monthly amount covered by Medicare is 7200 mg. We all know, of course, there are mathematical patterns in nature.
Drug-seekers are sophisticated.
ReplyDeleteA case presented by an ED physician in SoCal: A 28 year-old male enters the ED sweating profusely, carrying a plastic bag filled with vomit, and complains of severe abdominal pain (‘a pretty convincing visual!’). The patient claimed to have a history of FMF (Familial Meditarranean Fever, where the only symptoms are usually abdominal +/- joint pain and fever). The patient volunteered the diagnosis, and asked for Dilaudid by name, while mentioning allergies to Toradol and Morphine (only 28, and he’s already developed allergies to NSAIDs and morphine). ‘This is a set-up! Doctors like to give patients the benefit of the doubt, of course, but I decided to use my police training (this guy served in the LAPD prior to med school) and left the room to watch the patient through a crack in the blinds. I was able to observe him putting his finger down his throat. Then he suddenly jumped down from the exam table to do push-ups! That explained the diaphoresis. Now LA is the center of the entertainment world, and man we have some really good actors! Most docs don’t like to confront patients, but having been a cop, I had no problem walking back in and telling him to get the ---- out of my ED.’
Pharma has gotten smarter, and now markets drugs directly to the consumer. Typical ad:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffZUHWG66EA
Fortunately, as traders we already know we're being played, and the only determination that needs to be made is whether prices are headed up, or going down.
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/8-great-places-to-retire-abroad-175538395.html?desktop_view_default=true
ReplyDeleteI'd choose Panama.
DeleteMichael Botticelli, newly-appointed Deputy Director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (who is himself in long-term recovery from addiction, celebrating 24 years of sobriety), recently outlined initiatives he plans to promote to state governments. He's known for innovative, evidence-based programs in his home state of Massachusetts, which includes several overdose prevention programs. He advocates supplying all first-responders with naloxone, which in the town of Quincy dramatically lowered the number of deaths due to opiate poisoning. He supports legislation which will protect doctors who supply naloxone to persons other than the substance abuser (Moms, for instance), protect those who call 911 to report an OD, and limit the liability of any healthcare professional who acts immediately to save a life. It's all about preventing (highly preventable) deaths. In Massachusetts these programs have helped to change public perception of police as 'monsters in cruisers' to that of community partners in the fight against drug abuse.
ReplyDeleteDespite its top ten ranking in terms of per capita income, the US has always seemed to embrace a culture that fosters loneliness, and 'celebrates' emotional pain. I walk the streets of San Francisco each week day morning before sunrise on my way to work, past lost souls, young and old, huddled/sleeping in doorways. Prescription drug abuse fits right in with an inability/unwillingess to tolerate pain (of any kind).
ReplyDeleteThe best films/songs of my generation hinged on haunting stories about social isolation and regret. Gordon Lightfoot's beautiful 'If You Could Read My Mind."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAedY3NucEs
I really believe that our problem with drug abuse is, at its root, a problem with social isolation. Building stronger communities would go a long way toward solving the crisis.
Btw, in 1974 I spent several months on some of the same streets and saw exactly the same kinds of lost souls. For me it was a coming of age journey emblematic of the Seventies. For others, it became a way of life.
DeleteIf by social isolation you also include un-recognized, un-diagnosed, untreated mental illnesses, psychological and physical trauma, coupled with societal isolation/dislocation that allows this condition to persist, then I agree and think this would cover about 90% of all substance abuse.
Deletehttp://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/02/online-poker-legal/
ReplyDeletehttp://www.justice.gov/olc/2011/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf
Got ZNGA?
Yeah, saw all of that Friday. Kinda thought FB would react to it also.
Deletewhat do you think?
DeleteI guess that it's a pretty obvious catalyst, so probably already priced in.
DeleteGold - How long has it been now, since Pimpco last pumped gold?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - I'm liking this one again, it fully deserves to move on higher.
My take on this is REIT's lend long and borrow short. A steepening yield curve should thus be, a tail wind. No?
ReplyDeletehttp://yragharris.com/2013/02/19/gifts/
"The Fed’s preconceived exit strategy from QE is to raise interest rates before it begins offloading its huge Treasury portfolio. President Bullard suggests maybe lightening the balance sheet before raising rates. Yes, there will be losses on the present Treasury holdings but the cost of interest on reserves will not result in a double hit. This is an interesting dilemma but if the Fed were to sell off assets before raising rates the outcome OUGHT TO BE A STEEPENING IN THE U.S.YIELD CURVE. This would provide a great trading opportunity to be long the twos and short further out."
FRO - Ouch, falling US oil imports must be putting the squeeze on old FRO?
ReplyDeleteAmazing how often the market has it right hun?
DeleteAfternoon fellas
ReplyDeleteON Friday, bot a little GS and EXPE. I'm about ready to never watch CNBC again. WHat did buddy Gartman say, "Get out of stocks now" I think. My conservative nature tells me we need a much bigger pullback and who knows if I would even buy then. So I picked out a couple of charts that I liked on Friday and went with them. As usual, my share size is smaller so the losses are manageable. For me the key is consistency and money management. I'm still working on both of those but I did go in right away and put in all of my stops as good till cancelled. That single step means that at least I thought about entries and exits and money managment.
GS bot at 153.36, frist sell price target at 157.60, stop at 149.20.
On GS, I just like the orderly pullback. I view this as the riskier purchase of the two so we'll see. Financials seem to be doing pretty good so maybe it will keep going up.
EXPE bot at 64.07, first sell price target at 66.10, stop at 62.07.
On EXPE, I like the higher low on a big down day on the 20th along with the tail on the candle stick on the 21st. It's not a hammer but whatever it is I like it. Also, the prices on the 20th and 21st are right areound the 50 day which is currently 63.19.
I'll probably look for a couple of purchases to make tomorrow and then leave stop for now till we see if this really is a 7-10$ pullback or not.
alllllrighty, that last sentence is me balancing the 4 yr old on the knee while typing.
DeleteWe're off to Bass Pro shops where they have an indoor fish tank, waterfall, and about 5 or 6 boats we can climb on.
I didn't do it...
ReplyDeleteOf course not, Colonel Angus did!
DeleteGGN - Bounced off $12 you guys, nobody noticed?
ReplyDeleteYRC Freight Named Walmart's 2012 National LTL Carrier of the Year PR Newswire
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Good for $50 if that gap down is gonna close.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Sam Zell's daughter bought $200k of shares?
ReplyDeleteI'll be on the road today, and unlikely to be posting in real time, if at all. With silver futes up as much as +2.5% right now, odds are good I'll be closing all positions by end of day.
ReplyDelete"Monday we Rock" is looking pretty right on if the futures are any indication. Pretty much everything green so far today.
ReplyDeleteLong ZNGA at $3.49 pre market.
ReplyDeleteSold my NOK at $3.87 and bought more ZNGA at $3.52.
DeleteSold SAND
ReplyDeleteNICE!
DeleteSold XCO
ReplyDeleteEnded up buying a good deal of ZNGA...between $3.44 and $3.6. Avg is right around $3.53. Hate chasing but I just have a feeling that its the right move...
ReplyDeleteit's very volatile right now but here's my thinking:
Delete(1) they have $2.50 net cash so downside is pretty limited
(2) there will be a rush to legalize gambling by other states now that nevada has done it
(3) catalyst will be very long term
(4) they have 7 million people playing their free version of poker right now. that shows you just how big this could be for them.
(5) several months ago we were trading it at the high single digits so now with it down well over 50% from those levels, is it really "chasing"?
Sometimes you have to chase, usually works day or so.
DeleteGL
Sold UNG
ReplyDeleteSDL.AX/GMO - GMO/Sundance - •Hanlong Payment Set to Steady Sundance Deal Jittersat The Wall Street Journal(Mon 1:12AM EST)
ReplyDeletehttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/wsj/SIG=13bqah501/*http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2013/02/25/hanlong-payment-set-to-steady-sundance-deal-jitters/?mod=yahoo_hs
NLS - $6 now, still on it's way to $25
ReplyDeleteAPA - Looks like a buy if Egypt doesn't incinerate? This puppy needs a caring mother......
ReplyDeleteBACML Neutral, PO is $95
SFY ?
ReplyDeleteSold out of a few small stocks today in a small account I have that I want to consolidate into my main account. Takes about a week to move the funds, so figure this is a good time to have that money out of the market.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap, Batman?
ReplyDeleteSORL, which David brought to our attention last year is having a nice move up. I still hold and it has broken above last year's high's to $3.85.
ReplyDeleteI still think it is a double from here and gets to at least $8.00. Valuation is cheap, company is doing well and haven't heard of any Chinese scams lately to drag the sector down.
BDI - "I'm bearish on the BDI for the time being":
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1072571-how-do-we-know-if-it-s-the-bottom-in-the-dry-bulk-industry?source=yahoo
The charts of the stocks are speaking volumes in my mind. That pullback in DSX appears to be getting bought. BALT looks bullish. Perhaps there is one last shakeout but the charts look solid to me. I do like BALT the best because it appears to be tethered to the BDI the most.
DeleteFREE is dry bulk as well, I think.
DeleteRobot flipped long this morning, might be flipping back short soon?
ReplyDeleteAll depends on the euro, apparently, which is weaker now I guess. Whatever it is or isn't...
The trading today is pretty bearish in the overall markets. I personally don't care that much because i'm trying to stick with companies that have longer term catalysts in mind, but I did turn on the boob tube to hear what the fast dumb money guys had to say and they're all buying this pullback. that's gotta be taken bearishly, in my opinion, if you're looking to trade the short term moves in the market from the long side.
ReplyDeleteif we keep the 1980 parallel in mind, this pullback could be far deeper than people think before it gets to 1,700ish. in 1980 after a huge rally stocks dropped like 22% in 6 weeks and then went about 40% higher. i don't see many people at all calling for that so maybe it happens? a drop to 1,300 and then a move to 1,700?
Delete"fast dumb money guys" I'll assign then a 50% chance of being correct.
DeleteWhipsaw always seems to resolve to the upside, until it doesn't????
And, I still believe a weaker euro and yen/dollar are good long term catalysts. Sure, market may be weak currently due to euro being soft but how does a strong euro serve to resolve southern Europe's lack of competitiveness?
DeleteNow I'm supposed to believe gold is positively correlated to the dollar? Oh gimme a break, a few days ago gold was being hammered over the prospect of economic recovery. Fear not a weaker Euro, even if you're a German who conveniently overlooks genocide but cannot forget the experience of a crashed currency.
MJNA - Still a fraud it seems, another SA fraud.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/marijuana-stocks-don-t-dope-risk-high-says-170149991.html?l=1
DeleteYes, big tobacco will squish these bugs eventually.
DeleteGDXJ is having a nice up day, but PNPFF is down to a new low. I think it is a buying opportunity, so I just bought 7K more shares of PNPFF at $0.68.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I was looking more at BYD after thinking about this online gambling thing and I think that could be a buyout target. The reason I'm thinking this is NJ is expected to pass a bill for online gambling this week; however, I believe based on what I'm reading that you will have to have operations in NJ in order to offer it. The easiest way to get access to that market is to buy a casino in NJ. BYD owns the Borgata in Atlantic City so it could definitely be a buyout target. They report today I believe...
ReplyDeleteBest part: GS just issued a sell rating.
DeleteCan't I just hire three IT guys from NJ to babysit my server and make sure it doesn't get too cold or hungry?
Deleteha. honestly i think BYD would be a trade on sentiment...people will connect the dots pretty soon. i think it goes back up as people do. i took a small position at $6.5 to play this potential.
DeleteSID having an up day, still long and down -7%. Coughed up X.
ReplyDeleteHXM
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $3 for the 5 contracts of March $26 KOLD puts I purchased at $2. Also, placed a sell limit at $2 for the 5 contracts of March KOLD puts I purchased at $1.50. Planning to hold the 2 contracts of August $30 puts I purchased at $6.20 (when KOLD was at $27.XX) for a while longer, since they are not close to expiration...
ReplyDeleteI decided to reduce my exposure to TVIX and just sold at $4.88 500 shares I bought at this same price. Now I have 1500 shares remaining, and I am willing to hold them for a longer period of time, either until TVIX reaches $6 or until VIX drops under $13, at which point I'll add to TVIX.
ReplyDelete(CORRECTED) I just saw that VIX futures are in backwardation now -- that's unexpected! This means that TVIX will now trend up, if VIX remains the same. Of course, the backwardation in VIX futures means that the market is betting that the spike in VIX (to a level that is still historically very low) is not going to last...
ReplyDelete"the spike in VIX (to a level that is still historically very low) is not going to last..."
DeleteRight, no rest for the weary.....
Alright...added last bit of ZNGA at $3.42. avg at $3.5. let's see if this was stupid.
ReplyDeletewell i guess it's safe to assume the low risk entry for NOK is $3.25. that's the 50% retracement of their most recent move off the summer 2012 lows and also the prior highs from august 2012. glad i sold it and SNE this morning but should have waited for a little on ZNGA entry point.
ReplyDeleteFull blown panic mode sets in....
ReplyDelete"Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Volatile Italy Election: Projections Reuters
."
RBY - This one rocked, temporarily.
ReplyDeleteBoy today was definitely bearish. Hard to ignore...
ReplyDeleteThat's what happens when I sell a part of my position (in TVIX). That was the best way to ensure that it zooms up. :)
ReplyDeleteI had an open order to sell 500 shares at $5.50, which got hit at the end of the day. I bought these shares at $4.88. Now I have 1000 shares remaining, which I bought at $5.05. In order to dispose of these shares properly, I placed sell limits for 500 shares at $6 and $6.50. Once I am done disposing of this POS, I'll focus on closing my 2 contracts of SPY June $156 put, which I bought at $7.20. In fact, in order not to forget about it, I just placed a sell limit order at $14.40 for these 2 contracts.
After I am done closing all my short positions, I'll start scaling into long-term puts on VXX, since as we know, the spikes in volatility do not last...
To be sure, I'll wait until VIX rises above 25 and will then start scaling into VXX puts. If you overlay the chart of VXX and VIX since 1/1/2010, you'll see that VXX has ALWAYS been MUCH lower 1-year after the first spike in VIX above 25.
DeleteThe banks are sending a clear signal to the Fed:
ReplyDelete"DO NOT stop QE any time soon! Do not even TALK about it!"
Notice, folks, that since the bottom in 2009, every correction in S&P has always taken it down BELOW the previous high. With the previous high being at $1450, we should assume that this correction will take S&P below $1450...
ReplyDeleteafternoon,
ReplyDeletequick round trip on GS and EXPE, stopped out of both today. Also sold 250 shares of TVIX at 5.70 that i bot at 4.56 when David mentioned it two weeks ago. I still have 250 shares left.
Bot some SSO at the end of the day, I won't be holding this one long.
Today Katie Stockton of MKM commented on Buzz and Banter that they believe this is the start of a correction with first support at 1475. She doesn't say to buy at 1475 though. They hope the correction will present another buying opportunity that ultimately takes us up to the 1550-1575 area. She posted these comments before the market opened this morning. I think she's been pretty accurate so far so I'm going to start trading a smaller position of SPY calls/puts based on her comments. I wont catch the hi or the low but hopefully there will be a lot of room in between. I should have bought SPY calls when she first started pointing out 1550 as her SPY target.
ReplyDeleteAnyone follow BCOV? Looks pretty cheap to me...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Environmental lawsuit against BLM:
ReplyDeletehttp://biz.yahoo.com/e/130225/gmo8-k.html
From environmental group's website:
"The Mt. Hope Molybdenum Mine project would be one of the largest new mines that Nevada has seen for many years, moving roughly 60 million tons of rock annually. As proposed, this 80-year mine (44 of mining and 34 toclose) would excavate 2.67 billion tons of rock to recover about 1.1 billion pounds of molybdenum. An open pit 2,600 feet deep and roughly 1.2 miles in diameter will be created, which will eventually contain a pit lake in excess of 1,200 feet deep. Overall, the project will effectively remove Mt. Hope and the surrounding forest. These 8,318 acres would be replaced with the open pit, waste rock dumps and tailings impoundments, all of which will be permanent aspects of the landscape."
http://www.gbrw.org/our-work/66-radar/183-mt-hope.html
It would be interesting if markets don't rally on Bernanke's appearance tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Looks like upside down bull flag to me.
ReplyDelete