Here's my recommendation.
ZNGA needs to grow up and get cool. Not only do I have zero interest in their games, I wouldn't be caught dead playing one.
BYD, on the other hand, is a gaming company with brick and mortar casinos (and a book value >2x its current market cap).
Winners always win. ZNGA, however- can you imagine ZNGA bouncers breaking any balls? No, they'd be sending people to Farm(ville) for rehab.
I like gaming, and I like Christie's decision. For crying out loud, what do people think happens on Wall Street?
ReplyDeleteYes, I know both GDX and RYPMX continued higher today. What do they say in Atlantic City- 'too ----ing bad, bro.'
ReplyDeletePM's vaulted higher b/c Bernanke was defending the decision to buy T' paper.
DeleteIn which case it will be short-lived. I don't consider Bernanke defending a well-publicized decision to be a catalyst.
Delete80% of companies have guided downward?
ReplyDelete2nd - keep in mind that ZNGA's free online poker game has 40 million users and generates 20% of their revenues. I don't know what the landscape will look like if poker was legalized and states were allowed to pool players together for more liquidity but a quick comparison with PokerStars.com, the biggest site out there by far, shows pretty good promise for Zynga Poker. PokerStars, per what I could dig up, had 50 million users and did $2 billion in revs and $500 million in net income.
ReplyDeleteBYD has a deal in place with bwin where it gets 10% of their online revenues if congress approves online gambling.
http://boydgaming.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=24951&item=77893
You're right. Poker is an entirely different ballgame, one which lends itself to a real time online gaming platform.
Deletefor the bigger players the ability to play multiple games at the same time is what lures them online. the key is liquidity though. they can't have separate rules for each state as each state is not big enough. the jersey market could be a good one...much bigger than nevada because nevada already has legal poker everywhere. with the increased usage of smartphones since online gambling was shut down, i'd have to imagine the market size is much much larger than it was 5 years ago.
Deletehttp://upstart.bizjournals.com/entrepreneurs/hot-shots/2013/02/26/mark-mahaney-on-retail-opportunities.html?ana=yfcpc
ReplyDeleteby the way, the first bullet point makes me want to look more at BCOV which i mentioned last night.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/371411-ipo-preview-brightcove
DeleteBYD - Looks like GS almost got their Feb 12, 25% downside call.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess some folks must've followed their advice.
"I don't consider Bernanke defending a well-publicized decision to be a catalyst."
ReplyDeleteThat's a very good observation, 2nd_ave. Gold/silver started going down last September, when QE4 was *not even in the picture*. They continued going down *despite* QE4 announcement. So something else is at play here (a drop in Indian demand?). The only way to figure it out is to look at the long-term chart, being fully prepared to miss the start of the new uptrend. Geoff provided a long-term gold chart this morning -- how high should gold bounce in order for us to say that a new uptrend has probably begun? I would say that it should at least rise above its January highs (i.e., above $1700).
I'm not going to make any calls on gold, it does what it wants and I can only comment on what I see. Nice to have 2nd's and David's feedback, these bring value to our corner.
DeleteWill sequestration or perhaps a fight over raising the debt ceiling move the needle?
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
ReplyDeleteIf S&P futures rise to 1505-1510 tomorrow and then stall, then it would make sense to buy some SPY puts, with the intention of closing that position if the futures rise above Feb 25 high of 1525.
Folks, take a look at the 5-year chart of the TSX Venture Index:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE%3AOSPVX&hl=en&ei=F1YtUfD9OcmUiALoXg
It has formed a perfect descending wedge since 2010, with the current price being right on the bottom of that edge. Jesse REALLY likes such charts. :) He would project a pop to at least 2000, starting really soon. :) Hence, my purchase of PNPFF (which trades almost identically to this index) at $0.68 yesterday.
I can remember when Pinetree (just PNP.to back then) traded around 3.xx. So I could buy 5000 shares of PNPFF tomorrow for the price I would have paid for 1000 shares several years ago. I may do that.
Delete"Bank of Montreal: Some improving signs, but maintaining Underperform"
ReplyDeleteMGA - PO $78
ReplyDeleteBMO - PO $67
2/22/13 Auto Sector:
Buys: ABG, AN, AXL, BWA, CTB, DAN, DLPH, F, GM, GPI, KMX, LAD, LEA,MGA, PAG, SAH, SMP, TEN, TRW
Neutrals: GT, JCI
Underperform:, CPRT, GNTX, GPC, KAR, LKQ, TSLA
FSLR - Earnings response?
ReplyDeleteSilver Lake Resources (SLR)
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Ventilation Blues (111 comments) on Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:36 #117708
So .... ouch .... a 50% shave in under 6 months .... that hurts. What are the thoughts here?, that we should top up and buy at the low and look to a return to $4 this year?. What caused SLR to half its value?. Unfortunately this all reminds me a little of my experience with UXG/MUX. I realize they are worlds apart as companies but as price movement, this is a bitter pill and a similar experience. I've read up on many of the posts in the last 2 weeks but am unsure now where we stand with SLR and its future as an investment. I was thinking it was a long, but has that status changed and it should be viewed as a short term buy and sell, ride the price wave stock? If the price of gold now continues to dip, does that drag SLR with it? , or is it now linked to institutional investors and the price will basically flow the way they want it to.
'What are the thoughts here?'
DeleteStops.
'..that we should top up and buy at the low and look to a return to $4 this year?'
DeleteYou mean average down on losing positions?
'What caused SLR to half its value?'
DeleteI can't wait to read the response(s), if one is offered.
'Unfortunately this all reminds me a little of my experience with UXG/MUX.'
DeleteI was about to say the same thing.
'I've read up on many of the posts in the last 2 weeks but am unsure now where we stand with SLR and its future as an investment.'
DeleteDitto.
'I was thinking it was a long, but has that status changed and it should be viewed as a short term buy and sell, ride the price wave stock?'
DeleteI'm not quite sure I understand the question.
'If the price of gold now continues to dip, does that drag SLR with it?'
DeleteI'm pretty sure it would.
'..or is it now linked to institutional investors and the price will basically flow the way they want it to.'
DeleteI'm pretty sure about that too.
I may sound like I'm being hard on the guy, but ----, man. This is no ordinary site. It's the trading wizard.
DeleteIt's not Oz..
Delete..is it.
DeleteI am the Great and Powerful Oz! Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain throwing back another gin and tonic!
DeleteBC is like all wizards. They are all charlatans in pointy hats (or elaborate steam driven video productions). If you confront them they turn up the steam and chase your friends the lion, tin man and the scare crow away from the blog. When they finnaly admit they are as clueless as everyone else and you put them in charge of getting you back to Kansas, they reveal they don't know how to trade a hot aired balloon and leave you looking for a ride with your ruby slippers. Then Glenda tells you what you knew all along.....you always had the power to get back to Kansas, all you have to do is click the ruby slippers together three times and repeat, there's no place like charts, there's no place like charts, there's no place like charts.
LOL! :(
DeleteWell said CC.
DeleteSpeaking of wizards....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-27/gold-miners-come-clean-on-costs-after-lost-6-years-commodities.html
I learned a great deal more reading that one article than I ever had reading over 200 WIR's
Delete"Did you know that earnings for the gold miners are growing? Estimates for 2013 are actually higher than when GDX peaked in 2011, yet emotions are driving selling."
Deletehttp://www.caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-feb-20-2013#comment-117539
NLNK - That's some pretty stout institutional buying, $77m, the cap is $300m
ReplyDeleteWow, I missed 2nd's stand up in real time. So funny if it wasn't so much sadder.
ReplyDeleteMCP - Speaking of charts, is it about time the selling recedes?
ReplyDeleteOZM - Dividend is 33%....
ReplyDeleteAn excerpt from
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-27/gold-miners-come-clean-on-costs-after-lost-6-years-commodities.html
"The boom in ETFs may now be at an end, with physical holdings poised for the biggest monthly decline since 2008. The gold cycle has probably turned as the recovery in the U.S. economy gathers momentum and investment holdings shrink, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Feb. 25 report."
So we must be ready for a looong rally in gold now, given that GS has decided to start buying gold from its clients...
David- What everyone seems to miss is what BB points out from time to time: gold has already had a long rally. Is it (even remotely) possible that in a few years pundits will look back and say, 'It was obvious to me the cycle topped out at 1900.' When opening a position, always consider the other side, that you (or BC) may be wrong. Then what? Traders simply get stopped out. For those unable to admit it was a bad call, the only explanation is 'manipulation.'
DeleteI don't care who the guru is. Unless one is God, he/she can (and often will) be wrong. If the guru is puzzled about the length and depth of a price movement against his call(s), I would start to worry. If the comments veer in the direction of behind-the-scenes manipulation- come on.
DeleteGotta love how the gold bugs try and make it feel like a "club" to be in. Calling the banking industry "banksters" to make themselves feel smart and referring to Shadowstats so they think they are better than the government.
DeleteNever trust anyone who has an unfailing believe in any investment. Everyone is wrong sometimes. Just ask Mary Meeker and all those other dotcom analysts.
So gold has had a nice 2 day bounce off support, right where a lot of the technical guys were calling for it. It is down about $10 this morning, so it will be key to see if it can recover this and turn it into a real move upwards or if it starts falling again. I wonder how much of the buying the last couple of days really was just the technicians buying the support line.
ReplyDeleteI really have a tough time seeing how gold goes up from here with GLD still holding so much of the metal. GLD still holds about 40 million ounces of gold, half a year's production. Pretty much everyone who owns GLD is planning on selling it higher. If that were not the case, you either want to hold it forever, so buy physical, or if you want leverage, buy miners.
So, you've got half a year's supply just sitting there waiting to be sold over the next few years. Hard to see who will buy this given that the large hedge fund guys like Soros are selling, the jewelry buyers are buying less waiting for lower prices, individuals are feeling more confident about the market and don't need gold's protection. That leaves you with a few central banks like Russia and China. China is a smart commodity buyer and will wait if it thinks it can get lower prices.
So, unless we see something bad happen (eg. Iran Israel war), I think gold moves lower.
Re Pinetree PNPFF (from an investing perspective).
ReplyDeleteThis is a bundle of super, super speculative companies and the market goes through these periods of speculation and promotion. The question is, is the next speculative cycle going to be in mining or somewhere else. If it is going to be in mining, this company will come back. Very speculative. This is only for mad money.
The thing that tells you how they really work is to know they were doing the same thing in high-tech stocks in the late 90's, then switched to mining when the commodity bull got going.
SWC - •InPlay: Stillwater Mining beats by $0.06, misses on revs Briefing.com(Wed
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts?
ReplyDelete"The good news is that the market didn't continue to come unglued on Tuesday. The bad news is that even though it was up over ½%, it's not enough of a bounce back when you consider the magnitude of Monday's slide.
As usual, take things one day at a time.
It's important for the Quack and the Ps to climb back into their prior trading ranges. This would have them stabilizing. Further, and ideally, I'd like to see new highs.
The indices did hold their well watched 50-day moving averages. There's nothing magical about this but sometimes something well watched is worth watching. As a general statement, the fifty can help to keep you on the right side of the market. Pay attention to its slope and daylight---see Layman's for details on this and/or ask me to show you in Thursday's chart show.
As you can see from the Nasdaq chart above, on a net net basis, the index hasn't made much forward progress for the year. If this keeps up, I might have to dust off my sideways arrows.
So what do we do? For the most part, let things shake out. By now, I'm guessing you have plenty of left over longs from the last rally and might have squeezed off a short or two based on the recent stalling action. At the risk of preaching, honor your stops on those and wait for entries should you decide to take any new action."
MCP- I guess not CP.
ReplyDeleteDo you guys know of a few community banks somewhere in the grain belt?
ReplyDelete