This morning GLD is once again selling off, with GDX down -1.54%. (Not surprisingly, UGAZ is rocking @ +3.7%.) I’m currently in cash and hold no positions in either sector, but I wanted to point out how similar Wall Street is to a casino.
I can recall radio ads in the eighties where Peter Lynch (fund manager for Fidelity’s Magellan) railed against market timing, ending his sound bite with, ‘That’s not investing, that’s gambling.’ Yet a Frontline interview with Lynch following his retirement is titled ‘Betting on the Market,’ filled with quotes such as ‘In this business if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.’
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/lynch.html
I think it’s a casino, and we need to manage our money accordingly.
Do you guys know of a few community banks somewhere in the grain belt?
ReplyDeleteSWC - Activist investors now have about a 20% position and they want McAllister out?
It's gambling in the short term, but investing over a long timeframe. The longer your timeframe, the more fundamentals matter and less playing the casino.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Earnings after close...
ReplyDeleteThink they should be fine. No claims or court cases have gone against them this quarter. Not sure if the Flagstar win has been incorporated into analyst estimates, so may be some upside there.
DeleteIMH - Does this look like a bull flag? I don't trust a pennant formation that runs so far into the vertex although, I've seen quite a few of these break to the upside.
ReplyDeleteSNE - PO is $20
ReplyDeleteI actually dusted off One Up On Wallstreet once again this past weekend to pull some gems from it. I always get good insight from that book because it shows you just how wild stocks can be over longer periods of time. He has a section on classifying the type of investment you own and the section on turnarounds talks about Chrysler and it has this long term chart on the stock price. It's crazy to see how much it gyrated. To me it is always amazing to see how stocks can skyrocket, then crash and then skyrocket again over and over and how often analysts get it wrong on their timing. It tells you that anything is possible with turnarounds.
ReplyDeleteHe also has tons of examples of stocks that had risen a good amount after a big catalyst only to go significantly higher thereafter. Whenever I read that I think about how I have such a hard time getting over buying something after it has risen a lot from its lows. But if you look at the bigger picture and see where it is relative to prior highs or even relative to potential highs it makes you realize that it can go much higher. I think we're in that type of market right now with so many stocks: ZNGA, GRPN, WFR, FSLR, NOK, SNE, etc...
All of those stocks have risen a good deal from the lows and people are afraid to touch them. But if they're the new bull market stocks (and i think they are) then we should be looking to buy them on dips, not forgetting about them after their short term runs are over. This includes the banks and insurance stocks...
DeleteI second WFR. I think this may be a good pullback in the solars.
DeleteWFR would really interest me if they could somehow drop it down to around $4.00. A knockout of the 10wk EMA and a test of prior highs. Down to $3.3 and it would be impossible to ignore. Can they do it?
DeleteToo much more and it may be a trend change. It has a good persistent trend with a pullback, this will be one you want to buy higher on the retrace of the pullback.
DeleteThe chart pattern in ZNGA is EXTREMELY bullish in my opinion. It is the same exact setup as Z a couple of months ago. It looks like it might take another week or so to bust up through $3.7 but when it does it is going to be a nice run. If it pulls back one more time I think it's smart to go in heavy on it. Maybe a knockout pullback to $3.1-$3.2 would do the trick. Get as many off the boat before rocketing higher?
ReplyDeletethe chart pattern in BALT looks very good to me too. From the digging around that I did on the shippers, it is the most levered to a rise in the Baltic Dry Index as its chartered rates are tied to the spot rate. The BDI has been pinned at 750 for almost one straight month:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
This has been in a 1 year bottoming pattern and if it can clear above 1,150 then it will form a nice cup shaped bottom which is usually a really good pattern. I think we could do worse than start a position in BALT or DSX here.
for that matter, any dry bulk shipper would work if it can break higher. perhaps waiting for a break above the January highs of 840 would be the first sign. If that happens then EXM, BALT, DSX are the ones I want to be in.
DeleteCP - that ORBC stock really intrigues me. I don't know if you remember but I brought it up a couple of weeks ago when I was searching around for Machine to Machine stocks similar to SWIR which Stephen Stewart recommended. What do you think about it since you're the tech savvy guy here. Financials look awesome and I love the recurring revenue aspect.
ReplyDeleteTractor trailer tracking will remain a permanent growth industry, do they use GPS or is it more advanced?
DeleteVMW - I've noticed what seems like strength since this was announced, not sure how long it lasts...
ReplyDelete"VMware Named to MIT Technology Review's 2013 50 Disruptive Companies List"
Might be head of IH&S has formed?
DeleteI don't know of a more volatile stock than CZR.
ReplyDeleteCBB - Knife catcher's delight?
ReplyDeleteALSK - Another one.
FAA furloughs - An op for buying airlines? Maybe air transport?
ReplyDeleteORBC - I forgot all about this one, need to look at it again and right now!
ReplyDeleteThis can't be bad:
Delete"ORBCOMM Completes $45 Million Term Loan Financing with AIG for Growth Capital Business Wire"
Needs to recapture $4.50 else might get a lower price, I think. Love the business model, a long term revenue generator IMO.
DeleteI agree on both fronts...looks very good to me.
DeleteNEWL - How do ya like this chart, LOL?
ReplyDeleteRaw industrials look bearish, this seems to be a leading indicator:
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d8X0rVWYWG8/US4kVTJIKjI/AAAAAAAAKAw/0QRu3znnn0I/s1600/crb+rind+jpeg.JPG
It would be nice to see 1511 hold......
DeleteA better link:
Deletehttp://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
TZOO, thanks for comments TOF from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteMy vote, "CASINO" saying its safer LT is a comfort factor which was most likely true historically, but these are different times. Main point do what works for you and you bank account will tell you if you are right.
SLB off
Woke up at midnight, back to bed 3:15 am, always screws me up for the day.
GL dudes.
BOY I guess NG just got gassed last hour.
ReplyDeleteAnd speaking of LYNCH, I once heard him say that he like banking stocks, and he said he really had no idea which ones were going to perform the best. So, he said, I just bought all the banks west of the Mississipi, thus it was a sector bet really.
ReplyDeleteAnd most individuals do not have the funds to do that.
PACB long
ReplyDeletecoming off 50 dema potential lower low chart looks good here.
I'm still holding my whopping 3,00 shares of this. I expect it to be an all or nothing.
Deletepotential higher low
Deletemy fingers do not type what my brain thinks
TZOO really whipped this thing around today check out 5 min
ReplyDeleteyeah someone wanted out bad earlier. sold a big chunk. nice recovery so far.
DeleteIMH - You guys didn't like the chart?
ReplyDeleteRegional banks - I figure there will be an agricultural theme considering the world is short of food or land on which to grow it. US has lots of NG feedstock for fertilizer, bla, bla
I like MTG the best on the whole housing/banking recovery
DeleteI agree that there have to be some good regional banks out there. I've looked a few times, but seem to get overwhelmed by the too many choices and move on. I was also thinking regional banks in the Dakotas where the Balkan oil plays are as those banks would have good leverage to all the infrastructure lending around these.
Deletei've always liked the gambino bank (BKJ) and IBKC. IBKC went on a buying spree with a lot of those FDIC liquidated banks. I don't know what their loan loss reserves were/are but if they have the potential to be reversed as the housing market improves that might be one to look at. i haven't followed it closely in a while to know for sure what the details are.
Deleteholy chit. OWW is up 50% in 2 weeks. To think I bought that at $2.8 or so a month ago and stopped myself out! jeez.
ReplyDeleteAnother pennant breakout.
DeletePretty impressive rebound today. Month-end window dressing or is the correction really over that quickly?
ReplyDeletePAL/SWC - Bizarre day.
ReplyDeleteBAH - Perhaps the sequestration effect is priced in now?
ReplyDeleteThis company is just like superman and underdog rolled into one:
Delete"combating global terrorism, improving cyber capabilities, transforming the healthcare system, improving efficiency and managing change within the government, and protecting the environment."
It takes 24,800 employees to accomplish all this.
DeleteRobot - Went long at 1522 a few days back, then short at 1502, still short. Poor robot....
ReplyDeleteHII - Who says a battle ship can't turn on a dime? 38000 employees building and maintaining US Navy ships.
ReplyDeletePM miners - These guys look like they've been ingesting kryptonite.
ReplyDeletebought a little GRPN after hours at $4.47. results don't look that bad...met estimates on top and bottom line (if you adjust the bottom for non operating items) and the cash balance is huge - nearly half the market cap right now. i konw, i know, cash is worthless but it does provide a buffer.
ReplyDeletethis article from yesterday about ZNGA and GRPN kind of got stuck in my head:
Deletehttp://upstart.bizjournals.com/entrepreneurs/hot-shots/2013/02/26/mark-mahaney-on-retail-opportunities.html
it is interesting to note that EBAY and AMZN at one time were complete duds and came roaring back. ZNGA and GRPN both have massive customer lists and really good balance sheets. i think it's probably not out of the realm of possibility that they both come roaring back. they are at the heart of what is hot right now: mobile and local. and both these themes probably aren't going away any time soon.
12mo PO is $5.35, neutral. This was 1/11, looks like. Priceline PO is $830
DeleteMy sell limit order at $3 for 5 contracts of March $26 puts on KOLD was hit today (bought them at $2). I really thought that my March puts would expire worthless when KOLD moved above $27, but it looks like I got lucky, at least partially (I still have 5 contracts of March $23 puts, which I bought at $1.50).
ReplyDeleteAlso, my sell stop on the last 500 shares of TVIX was hit this morning at $5.05 (which is the price at which I bought them). All together, I made exactly $1K on my "date" with TVIX (I used $10K for that date). It was an exciting date, I must say. :)
"Small-Cap Strategy: Two thirds through and small profits up double digits 7 pages"
ReplyDeleteafternoon,
ReplyDeleteNo trades today. I thought about buying SDS at the close but market seemed to strong. One thing I'm going to watch for tomorrow is maybe buying some SDS on an gap up on the SPY. If I do a trade like that though I'll have a pretty tight stop on it.
IMH - Doesn't look particularly appealing this Q, to me.
ReplyDeleteJCP - Ouch...
ReplyDeleteAGO - "Fourth quarter 2012 net income was $74 million, or $0.38 per share, compared with a fourth quarter 2011 net loss of $84 million"
ReplyDeleteNet positive, not all companies can accomplish this.....
Jessee - Did he say he was running cross country?
ReplyDeleteNotice, folks, that S&P futures stalled today EXACTLY at the line connecting two previous highs:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
If the futures do not break above that line tomorrow, then I'll buy a lot of SDS and place a stop at today's high (for the futures).
How much?
Deletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2013/02/27/gold-retreats/
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys have a recommendation for a web designer?
ReplyDeleteI didn't tell you, folks, about an unpleasant event that happened with my account on Friday -- the extent of the margin call I got on Thursday was so deep, that ETrade sold around 9K AUMN shares in my account at $2.89 to cover that call. Usually they would give me 5 days to cover it (and I did deposit 7K into my account on Thursday), but this time they acted quickly. I don't understand how the margin call became so big -- maybe they have a different margin requirement for securities under $3. In any case, now you know why AUMN rallied like crazy on Monday and Tuesday. :)
ReplyDeleteThat got me thinking, however, that there must be a reason for all that nonsense that is happening to my PM positions. God is trying to tell me something. I figured that one of the things God was trying to tell me was that I am not a smart guy at all (that is, I should not expect that actions I made with the best analysis of my mind will bring me what I want). Consider this: based on all the logic about the dependence on gold on potential future inflation and how QE increases expectations of future inflation, it was totally logical to assume that gold will rally after QE3 and QE4 were announced (in support of this view, we also had a historical precedent when gold rallied sharply during QE2). However, the opposite thing happened, which NO ONE in their right mind could expect.
So if I cannot rely on my mind, I *really* have to be careful with the risk management in my portfolio. And since I positioned myself as a long-term investor in the PM sector, I should not have been using margin or buying lots of call options. So if I want to do things *right*, I should copy TOF in disabling margin in my account and maybe even options trading.
Friday's sale of AUMN and then closing of TVIX have completely closed my margin. So now I don't own anything to any brokers! And even though I have a strong urge to buy back the 9K shares of AUMN, I am thinking that maybe I should take that hit and consider it as a price I paid for realization that an investor should never use margin (since short-term craziness can last for years and can force me out of positions at the worst possible moment), and more importantly, for realizing that, like Socrates, the only thing I can be sure of is that I don't know anything. I was actually debating whether or not I should post on this (or any other blog) anymore, since any post implies a point of view, but the fewer "points of view" I have in life, the more my life will be open to REALITY of the moment...
Sinclair has clearly stated repeatedly, all PM margin positions will be wiped out. I guess he was expecting a deep pullback?
DeleteDavid, good luck with you journey.
DeleteWe ALWAYS have to watch our risk management as no-one really knows what will happen. We are all just playing (hopefully) well-calculated odds.
The other point I would make is when something has happened before, like Gold rising after QE2, you have to watch the behaviour before QE3 as people will try and get in front of it and the actual announcement of QE3 will be a "sell the news" type event where the runup all happens before the actual announcement. We are not only investing with the news, we are investing against other people's expectation of the news.
SFY - I think this might be a false pennant breakout to the downside?
ReplyDeleteGMO/SDL - "Sundance confirms receipt of $5M convertible note funding"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/content/asx-announcements.aspx?RID=8&RedirectCount=1
Additional info:
Deletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/hanlong-sundance-idUSL4N0BS1JJ20130228?feedType=RSS&feedName=basicMaterialsSector&rpc=43
Re AGO, they reported operating income of $0.95 per share and actually had a beat of $0.24.
ReplyDeleteAGO owns a lot of credit derivatives, which according to GAAP, must be valued each quarter and run through the income statement, even though there is no intention that these will ever be sold for a profit or loss. Last year, these added $244 million to profits, this year they took away $486 million. It is expected that these charges will reverse by maturity as the derivative closes out.
The important thing from their press release is as follows. This shows they are increasing the real value of the company:
Operating shareholders' equity per share reached a record level of $30.05, increasing 5% since year-end 2011 in spite of a 6% increase in shares outstanding.
Well I doubled down on GRPN at $4.28 this morning and just sold at $4.52. One of those rare times that doubling down on a losing position works.
ReplyDeleteNice!
DeleteGood work Mr. TOF!
DeleteFrom Geoff:
ReplyDelete'The Bullish Percent Index in the gold mining shares continues to drop with each successive drop in the price of gold. As you can see, the miners are in "hatred" mode.
'There sure are a lot of negative articles on gold and gold mining shares right now. We will find out if they are right soon enough, but rarely is the herd profitable.'
IMO, there are a ton of positive articles on gold as well. It's hard to discern the 'fade trade' right now.
DeleteI agree. Its hard to be unbiased when you're in a trade and that is what it sounds like to me.
DeleteI keep getting tempted by the miners based on valuation and their charts, but stop myself. It's hard to see how they go higher without metals prices and metals aren't going higher without increased demand as supplies are flat to increasing depending on the metal.
DeleteBYD continues to trade well. It's a volatile one though. News out today that they sold off a non core asset.
ReplyDeleteIMH - Have you guys look at the earnings report? Long term loses kicked up a bit(Okay, enough to swing the bottom line into negative territory) Temporary phenomenon?
ReplyDeleteWhat you see, is what you get....?
GRPN - Changed rating from neutral to underperform.
RLJ - "RLJ Lodging, solid beat"
ReplyDeleteSame with AHT. Plus AHT said they would increase the dividend this year.
DeletePretty much every lodging stock is showing increased pricing and selling more rooms this year driving increased revenues and earnings. I think we are only a year or so into a 4 or 5 year trend as employment improves, people get less worried and travel more.
AGO - Nice response, I'm liking this company more and more every day. Still no position, hoping for another panic...
ReplyDeleteFrom seekingalpha:
DeleteSelling muni bond insurance during a period of low interest rates is an uphill battle, yet Assured Guaranty (AGO) continues to find buyers leading to its healthy Q4 beat, BTIG writes. "The new business generated during 4Q12 despite severe headwinds should provide a glimpse of what could happen if and when interest rates finally rise, and a new muni-only entity is established."
I'm not sure I agree low rates present an uphill battle from the perspective that municipalities should be scrambling to take advantage of low rates? AGO isn't the lender, just the guarantor. Just my guess, but the severe headwinds are more a result of competition and the tail wind is an legal obligation to purchase coverage?
DeleteNow I'm trying to recall the three basic principles of marketing, one is Nostalgic, the second is legislative, can't recall the third......
JCP - Doesn't seem to be dragging us down.
ReplyDeleteTGT - Hanging in there... Looks fragile to me.
Good luck players!..I'm certainly not one.
ReplyDeleteWhatever happened to your GDXJ?
DeleteAdded more BYD at $6.74.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Appears really cheap here, I'm so tempted... It's just that the reasoning behind central banks buying gold makes no sense to me unless they're buying b/c influential entities want to exit their positions. If that's the case, I cannot anticipate propensity for PM upside.
ReplyDeleteSort of like the negative media hype over defense contractors concerning sequestration, which hasn't negatively impacted the PPA ETF.
Added some more BYD here at $6.68. Why do I get the sense I should be looking to sell this and not buy it!?
ReplyDeleteFIG: I really dropped the ball on this one. I watched it for weeks in the $4 area and just couldn't get myself to buy it. It had a huge stake in NSM which was going through the roof and yet it's stock price was just sitting there. I kept thinking it would eventually pay out a dividend of $0.10 per quarter for a 10% yield but I kept getting pre-occupied with other investments. It sure looks like it's going that way.
ReplyDeleteMaximum pain (aka the metaphysical certainty the market will ---- with you) dictates new lows on GDX and GDXJ within the next 1-2 days.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 500 shares of SDS at $46.97. Placed a sell stop at $46.50, just below its all-time low.
ReplyDeleteAllow me to fix that for you with an addendum.....
Delete"thus guaranteeing, new index highs"
Yep. As I posted yesterday, the S&P futures sampled at 1h have stalled at exactly the line connecting the two previous highs:
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
So shorting S&P now with a clear nearby stop is an easy trade. But then, as I have learned, the market can (and often does) unreasonable things, so I am fully prepared to get stopped out tomorrow.
Well, maybe copper will reveal the truth. FED gas stations positioned on every corner do make this market feel precarious.
DeleteIs there a way to scan for big jumps in call options?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-28/buffett-betrayed-by-calls-shows-nobody-safe-from-leaks.html
Monster dot com does that for a price.
DeleteIt would not surprise me if they front run it.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/volume_exp_intraday.aspx
Deletehttp://www.optionmonster.com/about/InsideOptions.php
DeletePlaced a buy limit for 5 more contracts of January $15 calls on GDXJ at $2.50. If there is a drop in GDXJ tomorrow, I want to increase my exposure, amid the extreme negativity.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, I cancelled my buy limit for GDXJ calls and instead I just bought 3 contracts of January $37 calls on GDX at $4.25 (I just remembered that GDX calls are relatively cheaper than GDXJ calls). I will now wait until GDX either rises above its Feb 26 high of $39 or makes a new significant low before buying more call options...
DeleteThe market has sensed my purchase of SDS and has promptly spiked up. :)
ReplyDeleteCP, low rates hurt AGO as municipalities can borrow cheaply without insurance. When rates are higher, the spread between a municipality rated BBB and the AA rating Assured can give them is higher, so Assured can more easily justify premiums for this.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about GDX and the miners is they really are still very popular relative to their not too distant history. I remember analysts going on BNN (Canada's CNBC) to talk about commodities in the early 2000's and everything was about energy. You'd get maybe 1 call out of 15 on miners, but that's it. We are nowhere close to that level of apathy here which was around the bottom of the metals and other commodities bull.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we are going to get a retest of the $1565-ish low on gold sooner rather than later. Retests are better bottoms in general and, as TOF talked about previously, we get a lot of fake breakdowns on bottoms these days (probably due to computers), so a low slightly below this, followed by a bounce would be a good scenario for Gold.
DeleteWLL - $2 swing on this puppy...
ReplyDeleteDisappointing Capex Prompts Downgrade
Delete Higher ‘12-‘13 capex erodes debt-adjusted metrics; downgrade to Neutral Much higher than expected ‘12-’13 capex ($2.1bn & $2.2bn vs.
consensus of $1.9bn & $1.8bn) coupled w/only modestly better than expected ’13 prod’n growth (12-16%, vs. UBSe of 12% & consensus of 11%) &
higher costs reduced WLL’s ’12-’15 debt-adjusted cash flow per share growth to 11% from 14% per annum, well below the oily peer avg of 26%. We
now expect WLL to run a ~$315MM FCF deficit on 2013 NYMEX strip prices. Given below avg debt-adjusted growth, we expect WLL to maintain a 2x
EV/EBITDX discount & downgrade it to Neutral.
Other highlights from 4Q12 update: 1) Reserves rose 10% YoY to 379 MBoe, below UBSe of 14% at estimated all-in F&D cost of $28.40/Boe; 2)
little change to 3P resources despite material increase in drilling locations; 2P NAV increased by $4/sh on higher Niobrara inventory; 3) Postle sale still
expected by mid-year, but proceeds will now bridge funding gap.
4Q results beat on production & better than expected price realizations Clean 4Q12 EPS/CFPS of $0.83/$3.16 beat UBSe of $0.73/$2.87 &
consensus of $0.73/$2.88 due to better liquids realizations & higher oil volumes. 4Q prod’n rose 4% QoQ to 86.1 MBoed, in the upper half of the 82-87
MBoed guidance range & 1% above UBSe. Realized prices were 6% above UBSe as oil diff narrowed $5.90/Bbl QoQ to $4.70/Bbl, below UBSe of
$8/Bbl. All-in cost rose 10% YoY & were 2% above UBSe. We’re raising ’13-’14 CFPS by ~4% to $13.50/$16.20.
Valuation: at a discount to peers due to below avg debt-adjusted growth We are lowering PT to $51 from $53, based on 4.8x normalized ’13
EBITDX.
Doesn't sound like this forecast predicts much upside for the largest producer of the Bakken. Increasing costs and competition, kinda like PM producers have been struggling with.
DeleteGASS and go?
EPD - Tepco to Import U.S. LPG From Enterprise Products..?
NIHD
ReplyDeleteFinally threw in the towel on this POS. It always feels good to get rid of chitty positions. The only thing that helped was the postion size.
I have to come to terms that I'm not a small cap guy, you guys are, basically.
PACB offed this morning for a scalp.
NIHD - This sector seems pretty crowded due to the extended emphasis, just my impression.
DeleteHad a bear flag formation as well (an upside-down bull flag)?
I guess the sector needs M&A, etc????
Honestly, I'm clueless about it all, just guessing.
GWW - Within striking distance of the 52wk high?
ReplyDeleteAGO
ReplyDelete4Q12 Boosted by Refundings/Terminations
4Q12 EPS of $0.95 vs. UBSe $0.74 and consensus $0.70 The upside to our estimate was driven by higher premiums from refunding and termination
premiums ($0.42), partially offset by higher RMBS losses ($0.31). The operating BVPS of $29.86 (UBSe $29.67) grew 2.9% q/q. AGO did not
repurchase any shares during the quarter.
New business production benefits from a life insurance reserve financing PVP of $69m (UBSe $38m and 3Q12’s $35m) included U.S. municipal
business ($37m) and U.S. structured finance ($32m, life insurance reserve financing). AGO insured $492m of municipal par in the secondary market in
4Q, in line with $500m insured in 3Q12, which was the highest amount reported since 2008. Municipal insured penetration in 4Q12 was 11.1% of par
and 25.9% of transaction count for “A” rated transactions, vs. 9.6% and 26.1%, resp. in 3Q12 (2Q12’s 10% and 29%, and 1Q12’s 18% and 37%,
resp.).
U.S. RMBS losses above our expectation The economic loss development of $73m (vs. our $42m) included net RMBS economic losses of $98m
(UBSe $20m), driven by losses in HELOC, Alt-A and Option ARM securities. Public finance losses were $15m (UBSe $17m). AGO also recognized a
$24m benefit in TruPS’ losses. R&Ws increased by $70m, due in part to the favorable Flagstar judgment and an additional R&W settlement.
Valuation Our PT of $21 assumes AGO trades at 0.64x of our estimate of 12/31/13 operating BVPS of $32.95. The call is at 8:00am. We will revisit
our estimates after the call.
RMBS losses declined considerably, perhaps not as much as hoped for by this unidentified analyst?
DeleteIMH - What did he say about this one, anything?
TDW - Do these guys run the tightest ship in the shipping industry? Seems like they're pretty well positioned to me.....
ReplyDeleteBALT B/O
ReplyDelete;) No position....
Deletewho me, no
DeleteMe no position. But the action is interesting.
DeleteLNC - Looks cheap, is it?
ReplyDeleteAPA - Is the selling done?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Closed that $49.16 gap up, did you guys catch it or am I just constantly talking to myself here on TT?
ReplyDeleteI still have three positions, VMW/PMT/NLY
ReplyDeletePMT is starting to look like a bear flag(upside down bull flag) to me, I'm not too enthusiastic about this phenomenon.
DeleteI meant VMW, not PMT
DeleteLooks like the spike in S&P futures above the line connecting the two previous highs was a fake, designed to shake out traders who started betting on that line providing a hard resistance and used very close stops. Luckily, my stop has not been hit yet. But there is always tomorrow for that. :)
ReplyDeletewow that was quick. they canned the CEO at GRPN.
ReplyDeletei was away for most of the afternoon and came back to see a pretty sharp pullback into the close. initially i was pretty discouraged to see this but the more i thought about it the more i actually think this is a positive. i think it's too dangerous if the market just melts up. so as it is continues to bump up against the 1,530 level without breaking through, it is building up more and more pressure yet at the same time causing long time bulls to jump off. i just turned on CNBC and saw an interview with Tom Lee from JP Morgan who is normally really bullish and he's calling for a pullback and warning people about some signals he's seeing. I also see that Ryan Detrick, who i tend to follow a lot because he has been pretty accurate for the past few years, is signaling caution. I kind of think this is all a good thing. if more people jump off this bull train and it stalls here around 1,530, i think if it does bust through 1,530 then these same people that have only recently turned cautious might be forced to hop back on and drive it even higher. just a thought...
ReplyDeletetough call but that's kind of my contrarian internal gut take.
hopped back in GRPN at $4.69. something tells me there is more than this firing up their sleeves.
ReplyDeleteObjectivetrader calling for the "mother of all bulls" in precious metals starting in next 7 days:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2013/02/moab-launchpad-.html
wow. good stuff. he could be right. having witnessed the blowoff tops in so many things over the past 14 years, i won't ever rule anything out. the final 6 months of the dotcom rally saw some absolutely ridiculous gains. i hope he's right and i hope AUMN screams to $30.
Deletesome gold sentiment headlines;
Deletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/02/28/the-gold-rush-is-over-societe-generale/?mod=yahoobarrons
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/26/gold-forecast-melee-goldman-joins-in-slashes-forecast-to-1550/
sounds mixed...
Well, if we are going to get a rally, this seems to be the right place.
Deletei think GRPN closes the gap down within days. the bearishness on this stock is astronomical and i think the firing today of their CEO is the spark that starts this rally. i'm going to try to hold my shares until that happens. then i'll switch it to AUMN :) jk
ReplyDeleteNo opening pop so no new trades for me today.
ReplyDeleteSNE looks like an interesting play again. I'll see what it does tomorrow after having 3 up days. If it doesn't tank, I'll buy some shares and put in a stop around 13.20 or so.
ReplyDeleteAfter buying 3 GDX calls today, I had $1600 in cash remaining in my OptionsHouse account (after selling a ton of AUMN calls when it was $4.40, the day it announced the production delay). I just placed a buy limit order for 4 more GDX January $37 calls at $4, so as to completely use up my available cash.
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