Alright, let's psychoanalyze David's comments from last night:
'That got me thinking, however, that there must be a
reason for all that nonsense that is happening to my PM positions. God
is trying to tell me something. I figured that one of the things God was
trying to tell me was that I am not a smart guy at all (that is, I
should not expect that actions I made with the best analysis of my mind
will bring me what I want). Consider this: based on all the logic about
the dependence on gold on potential future inflation and how QE
increases expectations of future inflation, it was totally logical to
assume that gold will rally after QE3 and QE4 were announced (in support
of this view, we also had a historical precedent when gold rallied
sharply during QE2). However, the opposite thing happened, which NO ONE
in their right mind could expect.'
David- Reality is not nonsense. 'Non-'sense occurs only inside our heads. Now God may have allowed it, but it was definitely the same toothless, bearded hag we all know that schooled you. Logic? Expectations? If you still believe either of those attributes have a place in trading, then more pain lies ahead. You may in fact be burdened with a high tolerance to pain, in which case you'll find your portfolio washed up and left for dead.
'So if I cannot rely on my
mind, I *really* have to be careful with the risk management in my
portfolio. And since I positioned myself as a long-term investor in the
PM sector, I should not have been using margin or buying lots of call
options. So if I want to do things *right*, I should copy TOF in
disabling margin in my account and maybe even options trading.'
Margin? Long calls? In the PM sector, no less? It's too late, bro. They've already disabled you, taken out your knees. You've fallen down to your feet, with a spike right through your head.
'..like Socrates, the
only thing I can be sure of is that I don't know anything. I was
actually debating whether or not I should post on this (or any other
blog) anymore, since any post implies a point of view, but the fewer
"points of view" I have in life, the more my life will be open to
REALITY of the moment...'
That's more like it! Now that's enough. We can't allow too much whining on this blog. Clean yourself up, take a few hits of UGAZ, and let's get back to business. Holding a losing position? ---- that. Return to the trader you once were. I want to see some gains. Now that's a gas! A chicken-chucking, m---------ing gas, gas, gas!
I guarantee you won't be reading anything like that on the sister site. No, just the same old same old- miners are headed back up. It may actually become the right call soon enough.
ReplyDeleteSAND somebody is hitting my bid at 9.35
ReplyDeletelong
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/28/icahn-steps-up-game-with-ackman-over-herbalife/
ReplyDeleteIt will end badly for Ackman, IMO.
I should open a (long) position.
DeleteI"m on Icahn's side as well all along. Don't f with old dudes....
DeleteC&H formation, the base is 26, top breakout line at 47-48; a difference of 22 so the upside target is 70 if price breaks up through 48.
DeleteFMAR - Here's a bank to watch if you don't believe in the sequestration hype?
ReplyDeleteHLF is gonna be a better play than GRPN, IMO.
ReplyDeletei think you're right. HLF could be a friggin blood bath for shorts. crazy stuff.
DeleteHLF C&H formation.
DeleteThe problem with shorts is the upside is unlimited and the downside is zero.
DeleteIt's much easier to illicit a squeeze than a selling panic. That works for awhile and then you run out of sellers because shorts start covering.
The psychology and mechanics favor the longs.
SDL.AX down a penny half way through the session, no news from China. 3993.HK/601958.SS flat
ReplyDeleteDamn, I just got back. This day job is really starting to piss me off.
ReplyDeleteI'll take a look at GRPN though. Heard the news on the radio and kinda thought the same thing as TOF.
On the other hand, I'm working on a negotiated fee for a very large project to manage. Maybe 2 years long. Right now we are in the $1M range.
DeleteGo for the project. That doesn't excuse you from dropping in with ideas from time to time.
Deletemark - i think you should consider focusing on stocks that are more manageable on a longer term basis. that is, pick a few that you're comfortable with holding for a long enough period that you don't need to check in on them every minute.
DeleteCP- I'm not going anywhere buddy!!
ReplyDeleteTOF- I do. I've been kinda working on that for a while now. Kinda a tough transition though. Then again, MUX looks REALLY interesting!
Man I really debated posting anything in response to David's post. I thought he would get it after Jesse's post but it didn't take long for him to get back to fixating on one sector. Unfortunately that one sector is trending DOWN.
ReplyDeleteIMO David CAN rely on his mind, he can rely on his logic, he can even rely on God, but he has to catch a TREND. We make money taking risks on trends. Up or down we have to catch a trend.
Just draw an arrow and use a reasonable STOP.
No options, no margin, just old fashioned trend following.
I think it's a friend's duty to call 'em as you see 'em.
DeleteYeah, but I'm the 'can I help you' type, not the 'I told you so' type. I was just feeling like I couldn't help him.
DeleteHopefully this is the final chapter of the book Jesse suggested writing with the counter point by Second. You know, where the hero hits bottom, is hardened in the fires of mordor and then is reborn victorious and insanely wealthy in body and spirit.
I’m with you CC, I with forethought decided not to respond. The last time I did a few days ago with respect to survival, meaning survival in the market, was interpreted as physical survival which misses the point.
DeleteHis post, I thought was a mea culpa, but just days later he buying options again on the GDX.
My last reason is that many of us have to learn the hard way. And i was like that when I was young. I truly wish the best for David.
Craig -- thank you for driving home the point about buying charts in an uptrend, after a pullback. I have actually warmed up to this idea, and I have decided that once I get out of this mess with the miners, that's what I'll be doing (if I will still feel like trading).
ReplyDeleteT3d -- the reason why I decided not to go right back into AUMN after they sold a part of my position is exactly because of your's and 2nd_ave's advice about taking a hit and moving on, so as to ensure survival. That's what I decided to do. In fact, the big change I'll make in my investing style is that I won't hold long-term positions on margin. I will only use margin for short-term trades, where I will enter a sell stop order right after buying something (like I did with SDS today). From now on I intend to be free from margin calls, which can really wipe me out. I bought GDX calls today only because I had spare cash available in another account and because GDX was insanely oversold and undervalued (IMO). Heck, Objective Trader did the same today. Even if the downtrend in the miners continues, it won't continue in a straight line, and we are REALLY due for a bounce now.
Coming back to Craig, another reason why I decided to not to jump back into AUMN now is because I realized that once its uptrend finally gets established, it will still have large pullbacks, and I'll be able to jump into one of those pullbacks if I get some free cash at that point.
So thank you, friends, for making the effort to drill a wise advice into my stubborn mind!
Not having to worry about margin is such a great relief for me! It has also made the extra margin buying power available for short-term stop-based trading. Speaking of my SDS entry today at $46.97, I have just looked at the decent pullback in S&P futures and felt that if this pullback will be retraced and SDS moves back down to $47, then the futures chart will look like a nice cup-and-handle, implying that there will not be a good reason to be short SPY anymore. So I decided that I should move up my stop to the breakeven level, so as "not to let a profit turn into a loss" -- a trading rule that I have ignored with my investments, to my own detriment. Let's see how my SDS position plays out tomorrow...
I want to attempt to remind you of two things.
Delete1. Money management. Forget margin. Buy positions based on a percentage of your total portfolio size and a maximum 2% loss if the stock is stopped out. Set stops based on historic volatility.
You already do very good with holding long term, it's money management and position size that got you in trouble. This applies to ultras. You may as well avoid them because the 2% rule still applies and they have a decay that the 1X etfs don't have.
2. Look at the entire market. There are hundreds of sectors and thousands of stocks besides miners and metals. Miners and metals are very well analyzed, which means they are traded by people with more information than you. There is no edge there unless the move is obvious and driven by macro factors.
http://www.objectivetrader.com/ put out another article this evening, explaining their rationale for going long miners now. Notice that in Feb 2010, there was also a bounce after the initial collapse, which was followed by a slightly lower low. When HUI quickly rose above the highest point between the two bounces, it was clear that a new long-term trend has begun. So, folks, I suggest you follow HUI closely now, and if it rallies above 370 in the next couple of weeks, then you might want to consider buying some GDX and placing a stop at the recent lows.
ReplyDeletei'm seriously considering putting all of my money in a couple of nat gas related LPs (ones that service the nat gas arena) and using the div income to live off of. between that and my business i should be able to cover all of our costs with some spare change left over. now had i just kept my money in SNE we would be able to upgrade to a bigger home...seriously, though, i think this might be a much more relaxing way of living off my spoils from the past 4 years of trading.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/basic-materials/oil-and-gas-pipelines/
DeleteRIP Marty Zweig
ReplyDelete‘Don’t fight the tape’
“Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves,” he wrote. “The idea is to get in harmony with the market. It’s suicidal to fight trends. They have a higher probability of continuing than not…Strong momentum tends to persist…Fighting the tape is an open invitation to disaster.”
Zweig advised investors not to go all in or out, but to keep a position in stocks and increase it when the risk was low while reducing it when the risk was high. “What you are concerned with is the probability of success or, alternatively, the probability of losing money. You want to avoid loss. So, it’s fine to buy above the bottom and to sell below the top,” he wrote.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-marty-zweig-can-teach-us-now-2013-03-01?pagenumber=2
I just finished reading the article (prior to seeing your post). Great advice.
DeleteObjective Trader
ReplyDeleteBelow Bullish Percentage Chart is showing the 13 EMA. Whenever the 13 EMA is crossed to upside ( buy signal ) or to downside ( sell signal ) we should follow the rule regardless of what we are personally thinking. Remember, the market is always right !
Since we have seen in the past how the bullish percentage does mark panic lows once the percentage has dropped to 5% or less, the odds to enter a trade and end the trade profitable over the next 3-4 month has increased dramatically despite the fact that the 13 EMA has not yet been crossed to the upside. The idea is to initiate a percentage of capital ( OT enters today 8% of 25% capital allocated to HUI Miners) at such panic levels ( FEAR ) and add more later with buy signal in BPGDM
So it's currently a sell, if my interpretation is correct?
DeleteNSPH initiated at Buy. Pt. 5. Canacord.
ReplyDeleteMan, that's a really aggressive PT.
DeleteDo you believe it? I'm not convinced, something internally seems to have blown up and I don't see how that could improve the fundamentals.
DeleteI'm usually wrong, it just doesn't make sense to me.
Personal incomes down 3.9%
ReplyDelete...and GDXJ is back below my sale price.
ReplyDeleteMITK - Mark might be right on this one guys, think about it.
ReplyDeleteI don't have visibility into the business model, myself. I do like to buy something I would use, my issue often is that I'm not the typical consumer.
one of zweig's rules is that the fed dictates major market moves and that when they raise rates twice in a row its a sell signal. i wonder how he would classify the moves in the other direction. the reason im asking is because i believe the fed started cutting rates a good deal before the market bottomed in 2009 and if that was the buy signal it would have gotten you into a lot of trouble.
ReplyDeletei'm in a gambling mood...i bought back into AMBS this morning...much much smaller position. avg is 0.069303. chart looks good and that's the only thing i'm going by. very similar bottoming pattern to the one in early december.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a decent place to try your luck.
DeleteHLF - BACML PO is $65, C&H pattern target is $70
ReplyDeleteI bet this thing rips.....
I also meant to mention that i got stopped out of my BYD yesterday heading into the close at $6.58 which ended up being a small loss because i bought more shares at higher prices than my initial entry at $6.5. i didn't want to be in the stock heading into earnings on monday but if they manage to drop it enough today i might re-enter.
ReplyDeleteWow. I thought about buying the morning sell off, didn't do it. I thought about opening a position in HLF, didn't do it.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I thought about opening a position in the miners also, and didn't do it.
Even Steven.
just buy some AMBS haha
DeleteIEP - Insider own 95%.....
ReplyDeleteAt the close ladies...and yes, I will be here. Not going to let the DJ ruin everything!
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, you could at least enter a few stink bids.
DeleteTEN - PO is $46
ReplyDeleteboy GRPN is volatile. if it can clear $4.93 it's looking decent for a gap fill. we shall see...
ReplyDeleteTEN - Stinky @ $32
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Stinky @ $46
Better than gold? "Brazil allows banks to use tax credits as capital during crises"
ReplyDeleteGRPH - This one's pretty volatile as well....!!!
ReplyDeleteWhen does midnight begin, was it last night or tonight?
ReplyDeleteVMW - Position is up ~$1 at this point.
ReplyDeleteAMZN is the threat, really?
Delete"VMware President and Chief Operating Officer Carl Eschenbach reportedly told the audience, "I look at this audience, and I look at VMware and the brand reputation we have in the enterprise, and I find it really hard to believe that we cannot collectively beat a company that sells books.""
AMZN - PO is $315
DeleteThat's a very dangerous comment for the CEO to say. very dangerous. I know first-hand just how well run AMZN. and they're a tech company in my opinion just as much as a book seller.
DeleteI use AMZN a lot and I know a heck of a lot of people that do too....it is WAYYYY more than books.
DeleteHeck, I bought coffee airpots for 30% less than my local wholesaler and they were shipped (AMZN prime) for free overnight.
AMZN IS the future. Even automated outlets (have you seen those machines in places like Macy's?) will need to compete with AMZN on price point.
I would almost short VMW on that non-sense alone. But then I would look at the chart first....LOL.
"very dangerous comment for the CEO to say. very dangerous."
DeleteYeah, I'm scratching both ends now, over this. I don't like it much. Makes me wanna switch over to AMZN.
"have you seen those machines in places like Macy's?"
DeleteNo, but WMT has been using their distribution network to try competing with the AMZN (instantaneous) delivery strategy.
I was in WMT last night and the place didn't seem quite as busy as normal.....
GRPN now in the gap zone. Let's fill er up already!
ReplyDeletenow if someone could just get YRCW going my port would be all in the green today.
ReplyDeleteWe should all be careful here....the S&P has a lot of crazy price swings and a broadening wedge formation that indicates no leadership.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying jump ship, just be careful.
transports + financials seem to be leaders to me.
Deletedry bulk shippers look extremely good to me...with BALT topping the list.
Air transport gonna kick into gear? Oil was down last I checked an hour ago....
DeleteBTW, if you are the religious type, I have the church for you.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thechurchoftrendfollowing.com/
I vote for what works, learn to run away and fight another day.
DeleteDefinitely sold too early but I cashed in my GRPN at $5.13. hell of a move.
ReplyDeleteAMZN - Why wouldn't we be holding this one?
ReplyDeleteThe phenomenon that concerns me concerning internet businesses is the possibility that internet transactions may become taxed in the not too distant future, this might happen in an attempt to capture tax revenue, rescue local business and commercial real estate sectors?
DeleteWhat do you guys think?
i thought this was an issue as well...back when AMZN was a good deal lower. i think it remains to be seen how it will impact the price comparisons between online/offline. ease of use, ability to comparison shop make online the winner in my opinion as long as prices are roughly the same.
DeleteMy observation is online prices often aren't as competitive as I'd anticipated. I'm often surprised to find shelf items priced better once the shipping costs are factored in. It's a 60mi drive for me to just run out and grab so I avoid that while comparing prices online first.
DeleteThis week I wanted a new style firewood splitting maul and finally bought it last night off the shelf for less than half of what I could've online.
BALT - Holy crap, it is moving............
ReplyDeleteTDW - Goes ex-div today, so Monday open should be an entry opportunity on the lower open, right?
ReplyDeleteLong BIDU at $92.8...I understand the bearish implications but I see a double bottom.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the huge move in transports is a function of them foreseeing a stall/drop in oil...
ReplyDeleteI think it's also becoming more apparent that people are ready to move on past this BS crisis, shrug off the fear and start living their lives.
DeleteVMware Owner Dumps $2 Million in Shares and 4 Insider Trades Making Headlines
ReplyDeleteYeah, EMC bought $2M worth, this ass hat headline is really f'in misleading. What's with this BS media clip trip?????
Adding YRCW. No airports or TSA to get in the way.
ReplyDeleteI'm GASSed about GASS too. One of those I should have gone large on and just sat. Still making $ but it could have been $$$$$.
I got stopped out of my SDS position this morning, a few cents higher than my purchase price, so as to cover the transaction costs. :) Too bad I wasn't around in the morning, when S&P spiked down. I had a feeling yesterday that that's what will happen, but it happened without me... Oh well, at least I didn't incur a loss on that trade. :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, this morning my buy limit order for 4 contracts of January $37 calls on GDX were executed at $4. Now I have no more spare cash, and so I'll be a passive market observer...
With AUMN at $2.74 right now, it is starting to look like the sale of 9K shares of AUMN last Friday at $2.89 by ETrade folks was not such a bad idea... :)) I should get around $10K in semi-annual ESPP proceeds on March 31, and if AUMN is still below $3, I might buy some...
ReplyDeleteIEP - I guess Ackman must be selling this one too. Too funny......
ReplyDeleteAnyone make money on NSPH today?
ReplyDeleteI did but I am a buy and hold type nowadays and it wasn't enough to wipe out what I lost during their recent crash.
DeleteHUI Worst case target - 20% from here?
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by cyangugu (25 comments) on Fri, 03/01/2013 - 11:10 #117796
As Geoff mentioned, the 61.8% Fib retracement is 337. While this level may hold also according to Dan Norcini, Dan Norcini has a worst case level of 272 on the HUI ( a 20% drop from here).
The below analysis compares well the 2008 drop to today's drop. The 2008 drop was up to the 75% level. So we should expect that in the really worst scenario the 272 level will hold because of the strong fundamentals today's (Money priting, currency wars, central banks buying gold, better cash positions in company (SLW and others)) and there is no current banking crisis. The drop will be shallower in my opinion as the fundamentals and circumstances are not the same as in 2008.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/02/month...
So yes, it is not the time to be a weak hands as Geoff and Bill as mentioned. While a lot of us have suffered a 40% drop in their portfolio, the rewards to risk ratio ( ?% increase vs only 20% drop) at this level makes me confident that it is better to hold the bags and not capitulate.
As mentioned by Bill, we should focus on the stocks that the Sprott and are accumulating. Do the relative strenght of a stock vs HUI, GDX, GDXJ are a good way to select which stock will outperform in the future bull phase?
Any other indicator should we look at to see which security is getting accumulated?
Thanks.
'So yes, it is not the time to be a weak hands as Geoff and Bill as mentioned. While a lot of us have suffered a 40% drop in their portfolio, the rewards to risk ratio ( ?% increase vs only 20% drop) at this level makes me confident that it is better to hold the bags and not capitulate.'
DeleteWow. In farily good spirits under the circumstances.
Great they only need 66.7% to get even. It always amazes me that smart people overlook the simple mathematics of this.
DeleteThey sound like they're drunk as hell.
Delete"Adding YRCW. No airports or TSA to get in the way."
ReplyDeleteAhh but there is snow!
I added more at $6.02 and $6.05 today.
Snow, OMG, really?
DeleteIt's 3/1, snow is short term.
DeleteSold the POS penny stock for a 10% gain. i'll take it.
ReplyDeletewidening daily moves near a top can definitely be a concern. on the flip side, though, perhaps it's just some convictionless bulls getting off and trying to scare others into doing the same. i've seen a lot of people doing this recently. you know, guys like tom lee, gartman, etc
ReplyDeleteYou took my warning as intended then. The trouble with widening moves and the resulting pattern is the lack of trend.
DeleteHere is Rev. Dave:
"As the lead pastor of thechurchoftrendfollowing.com, I often preach three things that a trend follower needs:
1. Follow through
2. Follow through
3. Follow through
And, on Thursday, we didn't see any. The indices tailed higher but then came right back in. Further, the futures are weak pre-market so we're not going to see any follow through-at least on the open.
The indices have made both higher highs and lower lows as of late. How can it do both? Well, when it begins trading erratically, the range broadens both upwards and downwards. This creates a broadening formation.
According to Edwards & Magee, a broadening formation is generally bearish. The market is getting whipped around and has no leadership. I think people get worn down and throw in the towel.
A broadening formation isn't really a trend following pattern. Therefore, I haven't found a way to trade the pattern. Sometimes the formation just gets wider and wider. This certainly makes it tough to time. So why am I talking about it? Well, at the least, as mentioned above, the market is getting erratic. And, as a trend follower, you can't follow an up/down/up/down trend. You need-wait for it---follow through!
So what do we do? Well, I'm guessing by now you have positions on both sides of the market. Honor your stops on those and be very selective on new positions. For the most part, you probably want to sit on your hands and let everyone else fight it out while the market is bouncing back and forth."
i think big dave and a lot of people are expecting resolution right away which is kind of silly. look, for example, at the 1982-86 period...that was a new bull market...the market rallied hard in the early part of the bull market and paused for a month or two at the old highs and then it resumed its rally. even in 1995 when the market just rallied all year for like a 30% gain there was a lower lows from mid feb to mid march as the market pulled back 4%, then there was a 7% pullback over 2 months in the middle of the year. i think a lot of people tend to read too much into the daily moves of the market. that's why it was silly for gartman to advise rushing to the sidelines and moving to all cash...even if he is ultimately correct. we're all different and have different timeframes but for anyone advising clients i think that's bad advice in any period.
DeleteIf you know Dave you know he isn't expecting anything. It's not how he rolls. He rolls one day at a time. He doesn't make big picture predictions and he knows it can go either way, which is why he points out the broadening pattern to begin with. He even says he doesn't know how to trade it because he is a trend trader and it isn't a trend.
DeleteSo his advice to "sit on your hands and let everyone else fight it out while the market is bouncing back and forth" is good advice. He isn't saying sell or short as we have both types of trades on, he is saying he doesn't know and that the pattern indicates the market doesn't know either. Clearly when the market knows, it trends, up or down.
Beaten down stuff seems to be rising, does this support weakness going forward or are these simply giving false signals?
DeleteBAH - This superman stock sank a little more...
ReplyDeleteTransports....be careful. Know your domestic from your imports.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2013/03/01/us-asia-contrasting-economic-activity/
new post
ReplyDelete