What concerns me is the indifference. There are 5 comments amidst the sea of disaster- 3 re email problems, 1 re retirement, and 1 film recommendation.
I think this could continue, plastics prices are gonna drop like a ton on the back of shale gas feedstocks.
PDH and EPD manufacture propylene, among others, from the shale feed stock and the US is rapidly becoming the premiere global supplier of propylene due to the abundance of shale gas, propane.
"That is contingent upon nat gas staying below a certain price right? "
I kinda don't think so, I've read arguments in favor of natty export saying there's so much of it that prices still won't rise.
Anyway, there shouldn't be much doubt that since the North American shale gas is flowing, and the North American source is proven in comparison to other underdeveloped sources(aside from Qatar?), propylene manufacturing is simply one mechanism for exporting shale gas. ie: I think price spreads should move down stream to those who manufacture the finished plastic goods.
I know bull markets can run for decades and the precious metals one could go on for longer than we think but I think the sister site would do well focusing on new bull markets, like the beaten down tech stocks, european stocks, shippers, solars, nat gas...why fight prior wars?
funny, i tried to short DMND just to see if its possible and TD Ameritrade doesn't offer its shares for shorting. this one day pop kind of reeks of a pump and dump. why? the reason is simple: (1) It supposedly went up on Blackrock establishing a 7.9% stake and (2) It went up because Vanguard announced a stake.
However, both had significant stakes before this "news" and I suspect a lot of people are buying on this news.
PDH: "Although the propylene market environment was generally challenging for most of the second half of last year, propylene prices increased each month of the fourth quarter as supply/demand balances continued to rationalize," said David Lumpkins, Executive Chairman of PetroLogistics. "With inventory levels now well within historical norms, conditions are in place for a much improved market environment as we enter the new year."
Nathan Ticatch, President and Chief Executive Officer added, "This improvement is evidenced by the fifteen cents increase in the propylene benchmark price for January. The benchmark price for January settled at 73 cents per pound as compared to the fourth quarter average price of 56 cents. Further, with propane prices remaining at attractive levels throughout the quarter, the propane to propylene spread increased each month of the fourth quarter. This trend continued into January resulting in a spread of 49 cents compared to the fourth quarter average of 30.9 cents."
So they are reliant upon low propane prices. It seems that the link I posted about the new supply of propane plants coming on board is a good thing for them in the supply/demand equation.
"Whoa. Check out the official 'response' to frustration over at the sister site. "
I think Bill is being in a state of a shock himself, just like I am. Bill has already stated in late 2012 that gold/miners will rally hard in January 2013 when QE4 kicks in. He also said that silver would reach $125/oz a year from now. Basically, he did all he could to console his herd. :) Now that things are not working out as he had expected, he is just trying not to think about it. Geoff is doing the same thing, incidentally, as his morning comments have focused on S&P lately and on some days he is not mentioning gold at all...
That's what happens when you need to 'explain' yourself to other people, which is why I'll never manage OPM. For me it would almost come down to STFU-> if you want me to manage it, then stay out of my way.
The only consolation to PM bulls is that silver is outperforming gold since December low. Gold closed right at that low today, while silver closed right at the apex of the symmetric triangle formed by lower highs and higher lows over the last 6 months. If gold breaks its December low this week, then silver will inevitably break that triangle to the downside, and the lights will get shut in the PM camp for quite some time...
My plan was to invest in an expanding gold/silver producer, which could go from negative EPS to positive EPS even with flat gold/silver prices. AUMN looked like such a good candidate, but they screwed up with their latest production delay. What a bad luck...
"they screwed up with their latest production delay."
Sounds like a temporary setback. My concern is if it continues to drag on, will they just keep diluting shareholders to infinity like so many mining companies seem to do?
In fact, based on the estimates they put out in early 2012, they should have been producing 4X gold/silver than they are producing now, and they should have been wildly profitable. I believed their numbers and started buying AUMN calls, which will probably expire worthless in April.
So how am I supposed to invest from now on? Am I supposed not to trust any words from the management? And invest only in companies that both have great *reasons* for turning around their business AND whose stock price has already formed a bottom, then rallied off that bottom and then pulled back to make a higher low? I think that's what TOF is doing and that's why his portfolio is doing so well -- he doesn't buy into a great fundamental story unless the stock price also has a great chart, and he exits his position when the chart does not explode as expected...
"Sounds like a temporary setback. My concern is if it continues to drag on, will they just keep diluting shareholders to infinity like so many mining companies seem to do?"
They may very well make another dilution at the end of 2013, since their money will last them probably only until the end of 2013, but Velardena will not start generating decent positive cashflow until Q2 2014.
I'd be ready to cover pretty soon if I were a short though, the breakout looks like a reverse bull flag. Maybe that's what happened yesterday, short covering?
I'm on board with TOF - so much easier to make money on stocks that are beaten down and starting to move up rather than Gold after it is had a historic run - gold still up over 600% in the last 12 years. Can tell you for sure, there are very few stocks I'd buy after they were up 600% in 12 years.
My less-vocal gold bug friends now say they are playing for the final blowoff spike up in gold - tough way to make money.
I guess those who are distributing now will miss out on all that upside. Genius stroke of luck for central banks that have been buying, all they have to do is claim their gold as Tier 1 collateral and deal themselves an get out of jail free card?
No telling what their plan entails, I'm no eel but I'm pretty confident they'll slither their way out somehow and it'll be at everyone else's expense.
sold one of my two apple calls. I sure do miss those two calls that got away for a small loss just last week.
'm getting bullish on metals myself. I bot 3 jan 155 GLD calls for 12.40 each. For me, this just allows me to control 200 more shares than I would if I had just bot the stock, plus is caps my loss at around $3600. All of my metals stock positions are pretty small other than FCX. I may buy a little more silver over the next month or so but that would be it.
Also bot 200 shares RNF at 43.60. My buddy likes this one a lot. We could be catchng a falling knife here though.
come on now, he was telling me to buy it at 35 but I showed him. I didn't get in till 38 and i showed him again when i sold it at 42, right before it rallied on up to 48.
he only watches ferts and energy. He got me into EPM in the $3.50 range. I've traded in and out of that one quite a bit. This reminds me of a BB type play. WIsh I would have just bot 5000 shares and left it alone. I only have 1000 shares now at a much higher price, around 7.50 ish.
I am in the natty biz. I execute natural gas basis swaps to hedge our index risk. And I optimize a little bit of storage. I rolled a little bit of my march withdrawals to October today. my storage has been over 90% full since the fall of 2011.
"David- Why don't you just the ---- out of AUMN/MUX/GDXJ? Then put it all on whatever tof is buying."
When my April AUMN calls expire, my total exposure will be greatly reduced. I like TOF's idea of buying SNE. If it rises above $15.5, then it would mean that the latest poor earnings report is completely discounted, and the future is bright. At that point, I might buy some calls on SNE.
Could be. I haven't done anything beyond the chart. I feel the way you do about ZNGA. I never knew what those games were and when I found out, I thought to myself, AYFKM?
David - the reason i don't want to completely commit to it being the end of the bull run in gold/silver is i saw the tech bubble and i know just how ridiculous it can get at the end of it. I think a lot of PM bugs think the same thing can happen with PMs. While i think there are at least small odds of a similar run happening in PMs i just think that game is a sh*tload harder to play. i missed out on all of the fun in that space after 2008 but i still found plenty of other things that worked and i see plenty of other things that can work. being married to that game has brought a lot more heartache than fun over the past 5 years.
All i know is the three most important rules are to (1) keep your losses small (2) be able to admit you're wrong (3) move on as fast as possible if you made a mistake
I personally can bitch and moan all i want about selling one or two days before SNE and DMND went off, but I also managed to buy UGAZ for a 7% run in one day and sold NIHD for a 3-5% profit before it tanked 20% in 3 days. It's all part of the game. It's human nature to remember only the bad stuff and forget the good.
by the way, i think it's also kind of good to bitch and moan about something initially. it's cathartic. but if we linger on with it them it prevents us from recognizing opportunities. i'm pretty sure that's a basic tenet of buddhism no?
What an educational evening, AYFKM. I like PYHOOYA, I'll give you a hint, "pull your head..." That was pretty much directed at me and several other youngsters during my summer construction job days.
I sent GASS to Dave for a review. I told him I know my targets are way off but based on today's chart, I would have used the candle on 9/1 as my reference. The hi was $9.03, the low was $8.41, so I'm using $9.13 as an entry and $8.31 as a stop.
Big Dave? I'll bet he says enter above 9.50 (more like close to 10) with at least $1.50-$2.00 (that big bar September 23rd) volatility. So a stop at 8.00 to 8.50 depending on the entry and a pt of $1.50-$2.00 above the entry.
That's a nice chart you found if it re-establishes the uptrend. The safer entry is higher to verify the trend.
I'm gonna put it on my watchlist. Good one Port. How many shares does this thing trade a day?
BTW, right now he doesn't have any new positions and he's watching a few shorts, so keep that in mind. New longs are dangerous right now, but if you have a great setup, you might have to take it if it's a commodity (yes) and can trade counter to the markets (yes).
"[Fed Governor, Professor Jeremy Stein] argues that the credit markets have recently been “reaching for yield”, much as they did prior to the financial crash. Although not yet as dangerous as in the period from 2004-2007, this behaviour is shown by the rapid expansion of the junk bond market, flows into high-yield mutual funds and real estate investment trusts and the duration of bond portfolios held by banks....... he indicates that the right weapon to deal with this might well be to raise interest rates, rather than relying solely on regulatory and other prudential policy to control the process. This would obviously come as a big surprise to the markets, which have tended to view the Fed’s stated concerns about the “costs of QE” as so much hot air......"
Thanks for pointing that out - didn't read it as I just glanced at the article title.
The broad market averages often hide what is going on within the various market styles and sectors. Not hard to find cheap stocks now (not as easy as last year) and by looking for value, you tend to avoid the overpriced part of the market. Same is in 2001.
Another interesting thing the BMO Quant guys are writing is that this is the time in the market cycle when value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks. Since recordkeeping began there have been only two other times where the relative price of value vs. growth was as such abnormally low levels (1975 and 2000). As Exhibit 5 illustrates, value stocks embarked on a prolonged period of outperformance following both and we see no reason why it should be different this time.
I fail to see anything that can take the market down, aside from politicians.
They won't do it just to make Grover Norquist happy, would they? Seriously, Reps need to s*it-can that guy right away. Adopt the concept of a party thinking and acting independently, not on behalf of some special interest group.
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yep, part of their new trans tax. I don't trade any French ADR's any longer (not since BOBJ co-listed on the Naz). Now if the Germans do the same thing that would stink
The UK already has something similar in place for stocks bought there. Not really sure how it affects ADR's like VE. I wasn't charged anything unusual when I bought a couple of UK ADR's.
Mining question: anyone familiar with gold mining operations in western canada? a couple of colleagues are part of the group that own claims in the Dease Lake BC area. The deal will be a combo of debt+equity participation.....any insight would be appreciated. thx
I love the skepticism from technical traders. I'm telling you fellas...nat gas should be bought here and on any significant weakness. This reminds me so much of the way the market's sentiment and trading was back in 2010 as it was still up in the air if the bottom would be re-tested. As long as it stays above the 200 DMA it is technically in a bull market in my opinion. There are multiple inverse head and shoulders patterns setting up in Nat Gas. I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $4 within 6 to 8 weeks or sooner. The sooner the better for me as a holder of UGAZ.
Remember back in 2009/2010...there were very few reasons to be long. Fundamentally it didn't make sense. But as the bull market progressed you started to see reasons why it made sense. As this bull market in nat gas progresses I think people are starting to see a few signs: methanol demand, EPA killing coal, nukes switching to nat gas...if the bull market can stay intact until 2014/2015 then you have the export terminals coming on line. I can start to see reasons for this being a multi year bull market. Maybe it won't have a crazy spike but it seems like it can certainly trend higher for a while.
Of course with this post I'm certain it will crash!
Another fundy reason is if oil continues to trend up. we shall see though...the supply issue will most certainly reduce the odds of price spikes but you never know.
PACB continues to look like AMBS did back in late Nov/early Dec. Love the bounce. I think it could run to $2.50 and pull back down to $2.30, allowing one last entry point before heading to $4. Let's see how it goes!
Just read through this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marley-coffee-avt-bet-big-134500607.html
"A few days ago, Marc Andreessen, the creator of Netscape and noted venture capitalist, stated that stores will die off, and that technology-based systems will be the new model. Examples of this are how Redbox helped put Blockbuster our of business. "Retail chains are a fundamentally implausible economic structure if there's a viable alternative," he said. "You combine the fixed cost of real estate with inventory, and it puts every retailer in a highly leveraged position. Few can survive a decline of 20 to 30 percent in revenues. It just doesn't make any sense for all this stuff to sit on shelves. There is fundamentally a better model."
This is a bit of a stretch since the allure of going to a coffee shop is you can hang out there, go online, read a book, etc...now if Blockbuster had movie rooms where you could relax and watch movies, get some drinks, etc then maybe that would have helped them a bit.
Also, isn't CSTR getting into the coffee vending biz?
Yeah, I read this and have the same view. They aren't going to replace the coffee shop because there are other 'comfort' reasons to go to the coffee shop, but there are locations where it isn't practical to site a coffee shop or a kiosk, so if the product is good those will do well. Also, Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee is a well defined and known commodity and JAMN will be selling it into all channels, not just automated outlets. I view Blue Mountain much like Kona. It has a name and a price premium, deserved or not. IMO as a coffee guy, Kona is on par with Costa Rican and a few other central American coffees. For the price I can get better coffee but some people go for the Kona.
For an interesting glimpse, watch 'Dangerous Grounds' on the travel channel. The green mermaid and some of the bigger retailers lock up large suppliers of corporate coffee years in advance, but the smaller specialty guys can go where they can't, or where the farmers are co-oped or grow micro-lots, and that is where the really great coffees are.
I think Marley has the name, the product, and the ability to publicize to make their company more than a penny over time. Specialty coffee is where it's at.
I think AVTC and Coinstar are in an interesting position. Does CSTR make their own equipment? That will be key.
Sold a Canadian Oil Services (pressure pumping) company Trican Well Service, TCW today.
Held it for a while and lost some $, but a small position that I never could really get behind and justify increasing, so time to get rid of and look for something better.
By the way, TZOO is rolling out a new hotel booking platform that is going to really boost earnings starting around Q3. This is an old MOMO name that is going to make a big run again. They have never been great at monetizing the traffic they get (they're like the 9th most trafficked travel site and if they were valued like TRIP/EXPE/PCLN/KYAK they would be worth $50 or so) but I think this new booking platform is going to juice their earnings quite a bit.
Stopped out of VXX, stopping out of Miners slowly as well. I have had my fill of MUX for a lifetime. Use to be a money trade for me....hasn't been lately. Not a good week so far.
RBY, I would tend to leave this one alone. Awhile ago it was reported ( as in a year or so ago) that the gold viens were thin, why bother? The pull in PAL may be car demand for paladium which I bet you would make more in PAL.
Need to register, so the heck with it. The miners day may be coming but its not here yet. There will be plenty of time to get on board when it shows its hand.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst George Topping notes that while total cash costs for Canadian miners Barrick Gold Corp, Goldcorp., Kinross Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. ranged from roughly $500 (U.S.) to $600 per ounce in 2012, their “real total cost” by his calculation ranged from $1,730 to $1,880 – an important consideration given that exceeds the gold price and means they’re earning “marginal or negative free cash flow after dividends are paid.” Raymond James analysts have found a similar gap in their calculation of the average cash cost per ounce for gold miners they follow ($740) and “all-in-costs” (around $1,300).
Pretty quiet market these days - Jeff Saut still bullish, but saying he thinks tonight's Presidential speech may give the imputes for the long-awaited correction, but he's not expecting a big one.
I thought for months now that this is the reason why prices has risen as it removes supply and panics potential buyers that prices are moving away.
I think it's an idea that is created by the elites to lift prices, plus they get to buy on the cheap that which they demolished through mortgage securitization.
Since the mkt is slow here is a tid bit per Cashin.
OT:
First Nostradamus, Then The Mayans And Now Saint Malachy – The Pope's announcement of his resignation from the Papacy has awakened new interests in the supposed Prophecies of St. Malachy. Malachy was born in Ireland around 1094 in, or around, Armagh, Ireland. He was canonized the first Irish saint by Pope Clement III in 1190 A.D. Malachy was an Irish monk, who, on a visit to Rome was said to have had a vision of all the future popes. He catalogued each one with a descriptive Latin phrase and reportedly entrusted it to Pope Innocent II in 1140. There was little, if any, mention of the prophecies for the next 400 years. In 1590, a Benedictine monk "discovered" them and published them five years later. The reason that Malachy's prophecies have re-flourished is that proponents claim Malachy indicated that the current Pontiff, Benedict XVI is the "next to last pope". Adherents say the next pope will be known as Peter the Roman and his reign will end in massive tribulation. I guess folks need something to worry about now that we know that the Mayans miscalculated. Meanwhile, I'll keep an eye on Friday's asteroid.
F the asteroid, I think it's Cashin's hemorrhoids acting up. St. Malachy....only amongst all the Catholics (the lot of them being Italian and Irish) on Wall Street.
Next thing we'll hear about is his old aunt Mabel's bunions.
Is it just a coincidence that Malachy and Malarkey are so similar?
Monks drink like fish, right? Nice to see someone couldn't resist the temptation to gurgitate additional malarkey though, the astonishing part is it's free!
I have an idea about what might be pushing the gold/silver market down since the QE announcement in September -- a large drop in Indian gold imports. This factor can temporarily outweigh the increase in the world appetite for gold due to new QE announcements. It is impressive that gold/silver did not break their 2-year supports as a result of such a large drop in demand. When Indian demand finds a floor, then the regular factors should start pushing gold up. When Indian demand returns, it will be a double rocket for gold...
So some investors might be waiting for the February imports to be announced before assessing the impact of the latest duty hike to 6%. At the same time, maybe they'll find a way to estimate the unofficial imports for gold in February...
Being a masochist I have decided to hold UGAZ for yet another day. I'm not convinced by this break below $3.25 just yet. i fully expect to open up down 15% tomorrow.
And what's worse is I made the ultimate trader folly: I sold PACB at $2.34 today and bought more UGAZ at $18.55. The voice in my head is screaming "Sell the LOSERS, not the winners, you idiot".
Right, I was looking for a good way to play excess natty last May and came up with MEOH just as it began crashing and general interest in chemicals was waning.
The methanol play. Completely overlooked propylene.
Here's the chart of GASS I sent to Dave last night. He said it looks a little toppy to him. He thinks the pullback is too much and that it has just about given up all of its accelerated gains from 8.50 ish to 10 and back. He said this might be considered a First Thrust Down, and he did capitalize those.
http://www.screencast.com/t/xmHsgKoOG1R0
I consider his comments a valuable lesson myself, good stuff. My plan is to send him one chart once a week or maybe every two weeks.
I bot a 1000 shares of TVIX at 4.56 to add to my underwater 24.50 ish VXX position. I won't be holding on to these for long. VXX made a new 52 week low today.
My RNF and AAPL positions took a beating. Rough day.
Port, if you did not offload VXX during the recent increase in VIX above 14, there is definitely no reason to stop yourself out of VXX now, with VIX under 13. There is REALLY no space for VIX to fall further, so your position can only decay now due to contango in VIX futures, which is less than 10% per month. So your only decision now, I think, should be the height of the spike in VIX into which you'll sell your position.
I was thinking about GE as a value stock since they were talking about the comcast deal on the way home from work. I'm looking at the 10 year chart and I don't think it fits for most of us, slooowwwww money. Maybe as a divvy play with some covered calls.
Whoa. Check out the official 'response' to frustration over at the sister site.
ReplyDeleteDo I have to, it probably goes something like "We sold last month, so STFU!"
DeleteWhat concerns me is the indifference. There are 5 comments amidst the sea of disaster- 3 re email problems, 1 re retirement, and 1 film recommendation.
DeleteI would almost prefer STFU.
Delete"3 re email problems, 1 re retirement, and 1 film recommendation."
DeleteIndifference is an understatement.
I don't think I'd be able to enjoy a film from the stateroom of a sinking ship. Unless it's OPM, of course.
DeleteCheck out BERY
ReplyDeletequite a run wow.
DeleteI think this could continue, plastics prices are gonna drop like a ton on the back of shale gas feedstocks.
DeletePDH and EPD manufacture propylene, among others, from the shale feed stock and the US is rapidly becoming the premiere global supplier of propylene due to the abundance of shale gas, propane.
That is contingent upon nat gas staying below a certain price right?
Delete"That is contingent upon nat gas staying below a certain price right? "
DeleteI kinda don't think so, I've read arguments in favor of natty export saying there's so much of it that prices still won't rise.
Anyway, there shouldn't be much doubt that since the North American shale gas is flowing, and the North American source is proven in comparison to other underdeveloped sources(aside from Qatar?), propylene manufacturing is simply one mechanism for exporting shale gas. ie: I think price spreads should move down stream to those who manufacture the finished plastic goods.
I know bull markets can run for decades and the precious metals one could go on for longer than we think but I think the sister site would do well focusing on new bull markets, like the beaten down tech stocks, european stocks, shippers, solars, nat gas...why fight prior wars?
ReplyDeleteBC has difficulty sharing, he thinks everyone's a moocher, liar or thief unless they're willing to place their capital in his care.
Deletefunny, i tried to short DMND just to see if its possible and TD Ameritrade doesn't offer its shares for shorting. this one day pop kind of reeks of a pump and dump. why? the reason is simple:
ReplyDelete(1) It supposedly went up on Blackrock establishing a 7.9% stake
and
(2) It went up because Vanguard announced a stake.
However, both had significant stakes before this "news" and I suspect a lot of people are buying on this news.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/dmnd/institutional-holdings#.URmQaaV22-8
I wouldn't be surprised to see it sub $15 tomorrow.
"both had significant stakes before this "news""
DeleteWell, maybe that's a good enough reason to own DMND, for many folks. First I've heard of it.
PDH:
ReplyDelete"Although the propylene market environment was generally challenging for most of the second half of last year, propylene prices increased each month of the fourth quarter as supply/demand balances continued to rationalize," said David Lumpkins, Executive Chairman of PetroLogistics. "With inventory levels now well within historical norms, conditions are in place for a much improved market environment as we enter the new year."
Nathan Ticatch, President and Chief Executive Officer added, "This improvement is evidenced by the fifteen cents increase in the propylene benchmark price for January. The benchmark price for January settled at 73 cents per pound as compared to the fourth quarter average price of 56 cents. Further, with propane prices remaining at attractive levels throughout the quarter, the propane to propylene spread increased each month of the fourth quarter. This trend continued into January resulting in a spread of 49 cents compared to the fourth quarter average of 30.9 cents."
So they are reliant upon low propane prices. It seems that the link I posted about the new supply of propane plants coming on board is a good thing for them in the supply/demand equation.
oh wait...i'm getting it confused...that was for methanol.
DeleteShale contains plenty of propane as well as natty, methanol comes from processing natty, where propylene comes from either cracking naptha or propane?
DeleteAnyway, these plants coming on line and ramping should create downward pressure on polypropylene for plastic products?
And keep in mind, PDH buys the excess propane that EPD doesn't have the cracking capacity to convert, meanwhile EPD is adding capacity.
Delete"Whoa. Check out the official 'response' to frustration over at the sister site. "
ReplyDeleteI think Bill is being in a state of a shock himself, just like I am. Bill has already stated in late 2012 that gold/miners will rally hard in January 2013 when QE4 kicks in. He also said that silver would reach $125/oz a year from now. Basically, he did all he could to console his herd. :) Now that things are not working out as he had expected, he is just trying not to think about it. Geoff is doing the same thing, incidentally, as his morning comments have focused on S&P lately and on some days he is not mentioning gold at all...
125? wtf, is that for real? Well, it probably helps the bullion side of the business.
DeleteThat's what happens when you need to 'explain' yourself to other people, which is why I'll never manage OPM. For me it would almost come down to STFU-> if you want me to manage it, then stay out of my way.
DeleteThe only consolation to PM bulls is that silver is outperforming gold since December low. Gold closed right at that low today, while silver closed right at the apex of the symmetric triangle formed by lower highs and higher lows over the last 6 months. If gold breaks its December low this week, then silver will inevitably break that triangle to the downside, and the lights will get shut in the PM camp for quite some time...
ReplyDeleteMy plan was to invest in an expanding gold/silver producer, which could go from negative EPS to positive EPS even with flat gold/silver prices. AUMN looked like such a good candidate, but they screwed up with their latest production delay. What a bad luck...
"they screwed up with their latest production delay."
DeleteSounds like a temporary setback. My concern is if it continues to drag on, will they just keep diluting shareholders to infinity like so many mining companies seem to do?
In fact, based on the estimates they put out in early 2012, they should have been producing 4X gold/silver than they are producing now, and they should have been wildly profitable. I believed their numbers and started buying AUMN calls, which will probably expire worthless in April.
DeleteSo how am I supposed to invest from now on? Am I supposed not to trust any words from the management? And invest only in companies that both have great *reasons* for turning around their business AND whose stock price has already formed a bottom, then rallied off that bottom and then pulled back to make a higher low? I think that's what TOF is doing and that's why his portfolio is doing so well -- he doesn't buy into a great fundamental story unless the stock price also has a great chart, and he exits his position when the chart does not explode as expected...
"Sounds like a temporary setback. My concern is if it continues to drag on, will they just keep diluting shareholders to infinity like so many mining companies seem to do?"
DeleteThey may very well make another dilution at the end of 2013, since their money will last them probably only until the end of 2013, but Velardena will not start generating decent positive cashflow until Q2 2014.
David- Why don't you just the ---- out of AUMN/MUX/GDXJ? Then put it all on whatever tof is buying.
DeleteMUX looks like an upside down C&H breakout.
DeleteI'd be ready to cover pretty soon if I were a short though, the breakout looks like a reverse bull flag. Maybe that's what happened yesterday, short covering?
DeleteWell, each time it's come to this, miners are about to spike. If they don't spike tomorrow, then I'd really start to worry.
ReplyDeleteBERY - BACML 12 month price objective: $24
ReplyDelete$24 would be a 30% upside move.
DeleteI'm on board with TOF - so much easier to make money on stocks that are beaten down and starting to move up rather than Gold after it is had a historic run - gold still up over 600% in the last 12 years. Can tell you for sure, there are very few stocks I'd buy after they were up 600% in 12 years.
ReplyDeleteMy less-vocal gold bug friends now say they are playing for the final blowoff spike up in gold - tough way to make money.
"playing for the final blowoff spike up in gold"
DeleteI guess those who are distributing now will miss out on all that upside. Genius stroke of luck for central banks that have been buying, all they have to do is claim their gold as Tier 1 collateral and deal themselves an get out of jail free card?
No telling what their plan entails, I'm no eel but I'm pretty confident they'll slither their way out somehow and it'll be at everyone else's expense.
CP, I had to think a sec on STFU
ReplyDeletesold one of my two apple calls. I sure do miss those two calls that got away for a small loss just last week.
'm getting bullish on metals myself. I bot 3 jan 155 GLD calls for 12.40 each. For me, this just allows me to control 200 more shares than I would if I had just bot the stock, plus is caps my loss at around $3600. All of my metals stock positions are pretty small other than FCX. I may buy a little more silver over the next month or so but that would be it.
Also bot 200 shares RNF at 43.60. My buddy likes this one a lot. We could be catchng a falling knife here though.
Port- Can you have your buddy alert us a little earlier?..Like when it was $22? TIA.
Deleteport, you work in the petrochemical industry, don't you? That's Houston's reason for existence, right?
DeleteI wanna know why ports bud didn't mention IMH back in July.....
Deletecome on now, he was telling me to buy it at 35 but I showed him. I didn't get in till 38 and i showed him again when i sold it at 42, right before it rallied on up to 48.
Deletehe only watches ferts and energy. He got me into EPM in the $3.50 range. I've traded in and out of that one quite a bit. This reminds me of a BB type play. WIsh I would have just bot 5000 shares and left it alone. I only have 1000 shares now at a much higher price, around 7.50 ish.
I am in the natty biz. I execute natural gas basis swaps to hedge our index risk. And I optimize a little bit of storage. I rolled a little bit of my march withdrawals to October today. my storage has been over 90% full since the fall of 2011.
DeleteFIO - Speaking of beat up stocks, FIO fits the lose description.
ReplyDelete"David- Why don't you just the ---- out of AUMN/MUX/GDXJ? Then put it all on whatever tof is buying."
ReplyDeleteWhen my April AUMN calls expire, my total exposure will be greatly reduced. I like TOF's idea of buying SNE. If it rises above $15.5, then it would mean that the latest poor earnings report is completely discounted, and the future is bright. At that point, I might buy some calls on SNE.
So who was left in SPWR and the Walmart of solar, SCTY (solar shitty)?
ReplyDeleteGiant pop today. I sold my final shares of SPWR into it.
Two more Landry picks that made big gains if a trader was patient.
SCTY - You didn't sell the top, clearly it's not there yet.
DeleteTZA - In play, and SPXU tomorrow too?
ReplyDeleteAMRS - Renewable fuels mandate?
ReplyDeleteWow, talk about trading the news......
COIN - What, vertical farming? Huh, is this another ganja play?
ReplyDeleteMAS - MASCO beats, pretty good response in AH
ReplyDeleteTentative target of $22?
DeletePACB - Successful retest of 200SMA
ReplyDelete50SMA, not 200
DeleteI tried @ 2.10 today as I was running out the door.
Delete.58 is your bogey for COOL.
ReplyDeletehonestly, the more i look at that one the more i think it's going to be lights out.
DeleteCould be. I haven't done anything beyond the chart. I feel the way you do about ZNGA. I never knew what those games were and when I found out, I thought to myself, AYFKM?
DeleteZNGA was a no brainer net cash play. Some of their games are actually fun to me b/c I'm a scrabble nerd but they lost their luster really quick.
DeleteI guess HEK hasn't released an earnings date yet. My bad. Finviz has Mar. 8th. Maybe they can move it back far enough it could be counted as Q2?
ReplyDeleteDavid - the reason i don't want to completely commit to it being the end of the bull run in gold/silver is i saw the tech bubble and i know just how ridiculous it can get at the end of it. I think a lot of PM bugs think the same thing can happen with PMs. While i think there are at least small odds of a similar run happening in PMs i just think that game is a sh*tload harder to play. i missed out on all of the fun in that space after 2008 but i still found plenty of other things that worked and i see plenty of other things that can work. being married to that game has brought a lot more heartache than fun over the past 5 years.
ReplyDeleteAll i know is the three most important rules are to
(1) keep your losses small
(2) be able to admit you're wrong
(3) move on as fast as possible if you made a mistake
I personally can bitch and moan all i want about selling one or two days before SNE and DMND went off, but I also managed to buy UGAZ for a 7% run in one day and sold NIHD for a 3-5% profit before it tanked 20% in 3 days. It's all part of the game. It's human nature to remember only the bad stuff and forget the good.
Now let's see this damn selloff already!
by the way, i think it's also kind of good to bitch and moan about something initially. it's cathartic. but if we linger on with it them it prevents us from recognizing opportunities. i'm pretty sure that's a basic tenet of buddhism no?
DeleteWhat an educational evening, AYFKM. I like PYHOOYA, I'll give you a hint, "pull your head..." That was pretty much directed at me and several other youngsters during my summer construction job days.
ReplyDeleteI sent GASS to Dave for a review. I told him I know my targets are way off but based on today's chart, I would have used the candle on 9/1 as my reference. The hi was $9.03, the low was $8.41, so I'm using $9.13 as an entry and $8.31 as a stop.
Big Dave? I'll bet he says enter above 9.50 (more like close to 10) with at least $1.50-$2.00 (that big bar September 23rd) volatility. So a stop at 8.00 to 8.50 depending on the entry and a pt of $1.50-$2.00 above the entry.
DeleteThat's a nice chart you found if it re-establishes the uptrend. The safer entry is higher to verify the trend.
I'm gonna put it on my watchlist. Good one Port. How many shares does this thing trade a day?
BTW, right now he doesn't have any new positions and he's watching a few shorts, so keep that in mind. New longs are dangerous right now, but if you have a great setup, you might have to take it if it's a commodity (yes) and can trade counter to the markets (yes).
DeleteI hope Jesse see's this....
ReplyDelete"[Fed Governor, Professor Jeremy Stein] argues that the credit markets have recently been “reaching for yield”, much as they did prior to the financial crash. Although not yet as dangerous as in the period from 2004-2007, this behaviour is shown by the rapid expansion of the junk bond market, flows into high-yield mutual funds and real estate investment trusts and the duration of bond portfolios held by banks....... he indicates that the right weapon to deal with this might well be to raise interest rates, rather than relying solely on regulatory and other prudential policy to control the process. This would obviously come as a big surprise to the markets, which have tended to view the Fed’s stated concerns about the “costs of QE” as so much hot air......"
Stein must follow the Schuller index?
DeleteReaching for yield, huh? More like nobody wants to hold T' paper 'cause it don't pay sh*t.
DeleteWomen love their accessories!...KORS
ReplyDeleteDamn!!!!!
DeleteAn overlooked bear strategy: staying fully invested. Hulbert finds support for BB's approach>
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-overlooked-bear-market-strategy-2013-02-12?dist=beforebell
Thanks for pointing that out - didn't read it as I just glanced at the article title.
DeleteThe broad market averages often hide what is going on within the various market styles and sectors. Not hard to find cheap stocks now (not as easy as last year) and by looking for value, you tend to avoid the overpriced part of the market. Same is in 2001.
Another interesting thing the BMO Quant guys are writing is that this is the time in the market cycle when value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks. Since recordkeeping began there have been only two other times where the relative price of value vs. growth was as such abnormally low levels (1975 and 2000). As Exhibit 5 illustrates, value stocks embarked on a prolonged period of outperformance following both and we see no reason why it should be different this time.
I fail to see anything that can take the market down, aside from politicians.
ReplyDeleteThey won't do it just to make Grover Norquist happy, would they? Seriously, Reps need to s*it-can that guy right away. Adopt the concept of a party thinking and acting independently, not on behalf of some special interest group.
SPH - Speaking of propane, blue flame.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at FGP
DeleteFGP Sorta looks expensive to me.
DeleteSPH PO:$45
DeleteSCTY - Not so bad, eh?
ReplyDeleteAlong with SOL, SPWR
DeleteGood Day Sunshine!
WTF:
ReplyDelete"At TD Ameritrade, it's important for us to keep you informed of anything that
might affect your account. We would like to let you know that effective
December 1, 2012, the French government began assessing a transaction tax on
net new purchases of French ADR (American Depository Receipts) and ordinary
shares on companies with a market capitalization in excess of €1B.
Accounts will be subject to the French tax based upon qualifying purchases
beginning Monday, January 14, 2013. Please see below for additional details:
- You can view the current list of impacted securities here.
- The tax is equal to 0.20% of the total daily net new purchases. The tax
will not be reflected on trade confirmations.
- The applicable taxes will be applied on a monthly basis to your accounts,
and will be reflected in the transaction history in your monthly account
statement.
If you have any questions, please click "Reply" to this message. A
representative will respond through your Message Center inbox. You can also
call Client Services at 800-669-3900. We're available 24 hours a day/seven
days a week.
Thank you for choosing TD Ameritrade. We appreciate your business.
_____________________________________________________________________________
TD Ameritrade does not provide tax advice. We suggest you consult with a
tax-planning professional with regard to your personal circumstances.
TDA 6658 EM 01/13"
This is in reference to VE.
Deleteyep, part of their new trans tax. I don't trade any French ADR's any longer (not since BOBJ co-listed on the Naz). Now if the Germans do the same thing that would stink
DeleteI'd have to imagine its going to be harder for a stock like VE to get off the ground because of this.
DeleteFrench kiss?
DeleteI didn't know you held VE...
The UK already has something similar in place for stocks bought there. Not really sure how it affects ADR's like VE. I wasn't charged anything unusual when I bought a couple of UK ADR's.
DeleteMining question: anyone familiar with gold mining operations in western canada? a couple of colleagues are part of the group that own claims in the Dease Lake BC area. The deal will be a combo of debt+equity participation.....any insight would be appreciated. thx
ReplyDeleteCut and paste to the sister site, and you will be inundated with opinions.
Deleteyeah, NOT going to do that. here it is all about real investment activity....the other site is all about bs and pretend investing...LOL
Deletehttp://www.fxempire.com/technical/technical-analysis-reports/natural-gas-forecast-february-12-2013-technical-analysis/
ReplyDeleteI love the skepticism from technical traders. I'm telling you fellas...nat gas should be bought here and on any significant weakness. This reminds me so much of the way the market's sentiment and trading was back in 2010 as it was still up in the air if the bottom would be re-tested. As long as it stays above the 200 DMA it is technically in a bull market in my opinion. There are multiple inverse head and shoulders patterns setting up in Nat Gas. I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $4 within 6 to 8 weeks or sooner. The sooner the better for me as a holder of UGAZ.
I see an inverse H&S pattern on the hourly chart, the daily chart, and the weekly chart.
DeleteRemember back in 2009/2010...there were very few reasons to be long. Fundamentally it didn't make sense. But as the bull market progressed you started to see reasons why it made sense. As this bull market in nat gas progresses I think people are starting to see a few signs: methanol demand, EPA killing coal, nukes switching to nat gas...if the bull market can stay intact until 2014/2015 then you have the export terminals coming on line. I can start to see reasons for this being a multi year bull market. Maybe it won't have a crazy spike but it seems like it can certainly trend higher for a while.
DeleteOf course with this post I'm certain it will crash!
I think the pricing is the fundamental reason. Nukes:inherently unsafe. Coal: Carbon issue. Fuel oil: expensive and competes for home heating.
DeleteSolar and wind are the goal, NG is the transition and backup for constant demand.
When wind and solar are built out, NG will be the new gasoline.
Another fundy reason is if oil continues to trend up. we shall see though...the supply issue will most certainly reduce the odds of price spikes but you never know.
DeletePACB continues to look like AMBS did back in late Nov/early Dec. Love the bounce. I think it could run to $2.50 and pull back down to $2.30, allowing one last entry point before heading to $4. Let's see how it goes!
ReplyDeleteIt does. Good early volume today.
DeleteI can't believe I'm missing out on this oil services sector rally.....
DeleteJAMN in the name of the Lord, Mon.
ReplyDeleteI found it through AVTC and the coffee stocks.
you're the king of the pennies! love the chart.
DeleteTZOO looks ready to run soon. full disclosure: long from $21.0 and $21.2.
ReplyDeletePuts on DMND was the play yesterday into the close. Really no fundamental reason for the pop yesterday...and it was bumping into resistance.
ReplyDeleteJust read through this:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/marley-coffee-avt-bet-big-134500607.html
"A few days ago, Marc Andreessen, the creator of Netscape and noted venture capitalist, stated that stores will die off, and that technology-based systems will be the new model. Examples of this are how Redbox helped put Blockbuster our of business. "Retail chains are a fundamentally implausible economic structure if there's a viable alternative," he said. "You combine the fixed cost of real estate with inventory, and it puts every retailer in a highly leveraged position. Few can survive a decline of 20 to 30 percent in revenues. It just doesn't make any sense for all this stuff to sit on shelves. There is fundamentally a better model."
This is a bit of a stretch since the allure of going to a coffee shop is you can hang out there, go online, read a book, etc...now if Blockbuster had movie rooms where you could relax and watch movies, get some drinks, etc then maybe that would have helped them a bit.
Also, isn't CSTR getting into the coffee vending biz?
Yeah, I read this and have the same view. They aren't going to replace the coffee shop because there are other 'comfort' reasons to go to the coffee shop, but there are locations where it isn't practical to site a coffee shop or a kiosk, so if the product is good those will do well.
DeleteAlso, Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee is a well defined and known commodity and JAMN will be selling it into all channels, not just automated outlets. I view Blue Mountain much like Kona. It has a name and a price premium, deserved or not. IMO as a coffee guy, Kona is on par with Costa Rican and a few other central American coffees. For the price I can get better coffee but some people go for the Kona.
For an interesting glimpse, watch 'Dangerous Grounds' on the travel channel. The green mermaid and some of the bigger retailers lock up large suppliers of corporate coffee years in advance, but the smaller specialty guys can go where they can't, or where the farmers are co-oped or grow micro-lots, and that is where the really great coffees are.
I think Marley has the name, the product, and the ability to publicize to make their company more than a penny over time. Specialty coffee is where it's at.
I think AVTC and Coinstar are in an interesting position. Does CSTR make their own equipment? That will be key.
PGH test of bottom coming up.
ReplyDeleteSold a Canadian Oil Services (pressure pumping) company Trican Well Service, TCW today.
ReplyDeleteHeld it for a while and lost some $, but a small position that I never could really get behind and justify increasing, so time to get rid of and look for something better.
COIN - +30%
ReplyDeleteNat Gas - F*cking jinxed it!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, TZOO is rolling out a new hotel booking platform that is going to really boost earnings starting around Q3. This is an old MOMO name that is going to make a big run again. They have never been great at monetizing the traffic they get (they're like the 9th most trafficked travel site and if they were valued like TRIP/EXPE/PCLN/KYAK they would be worth $50 or so) but I think this new booking platform is going to juice their earnings quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteStopped out of VXX, stopping out of Miners slowly as well. I have had my fill of MUX for a lifetime. Use to be a money trade for me....hasn't been lately. Not a good week so far.
ReplyDeleteSold a little PACB and rotated it into UGAZ at $18.85.
ReplyDeleteTVIX just hit my buy limit order for 500 shares at $4.50. Now I have a total of 2500 shares at the average cost of around $4.85.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Tempting? I haven't lost money on PM miners for awhile now, kinda feel like it today...
ReplyDeleteRBY, I would tend to leave this one alone. Awhile ago it was reported ( as in a year or so ago) that the gold viens were thin, why bother? The pull in PAL may be car demand for paladium which I bet you would make more in PAL.
DeleteOne of the lowest cost producers in gold is GG.
MJNA - This one should be making a new high in the next couple of days, else it's a buy on a swing back to higher low?
ReplyDeleteXPP - Rollin' over, or just taking a little break?
ReplyDeleteGold miners get slammed in the Globe today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/rob-insight/hidden-costs-take-the-gleam-off-gold-miners-stocks/article8455061/
If accurate, you can see why their stocks have been so crappy.
Need to register, so the heck with it. The miners day may be coming but its not here yet. There will be plenty of time to get on board when it shows its hand.
DeleteHere's kind of the key message:
DeleteStifel Nicolaus analyst George Topping notes that while total cash costs for Canadian miners Barrick Gold Corp, Goldcorp., Kinross Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. ranged from roughly $500 (U.S.) to $600 per ounce in 2012, their “real total cost” by his calculation ranged from $1,730 to $1,880 – an important consideration given that exceeds the gold price and means they’re earning “marginal or negative free cash flow after dividends are paid.” Raymond James analysts have found a similar gap in their calculation of the average cash cost per ounce for gold miners they follow ($740) and “all-in-costs” (around $1,300).
I kind of think miners now are like tech stocks in the early 2000's. You can do well if you buy AAPL, but crap out on MSFT/CSCO/HPQ, etc.
DeleteWOW, that would explain alot. It gives creedence to bullion over miners and maybe points to gold royalty plays RGLD, DUST (I think).
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteNot DUST, I meant SAND!!
DeleteTZOO good entryies TOF from FIB pov as the .50 is 21.52.
ReplyDeleteAbout a month ago I watched this for three days and observed how it traded, different and somewhat illiquid but at the eod the vol seemed to show up.
Pretty quiet market these days - Jeff Saut still bullish, but saying he thinks tonight's Presidential speech may give the imputes for the long-awaited correction, but he's not expecting a big one.
ReplyDeleteCan live with a slow upwards grind though.
We need to cautious on the RE rally story.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newrepublic.com/article/112395/wall-street-hedge-funds-buy-rental-properties#
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI thought for months now that this is the reason why prices has risen as it removes supply and panics potential buyers that prices are moving away.
DeleteI think it's an idea that is created by the elites to lift prices, plus they get to buy on the cheap that which they demolished through mortgage securitization.
We truly live in strange times.
Sorta sounds like another bubble, huh? I'm thinking gargantuan Trojan horse.
Delete"Wall Street is my landlord"
Gonna need truckloads of drywall and building materials to keep that balloon from flopping.
Since the mkt is slow here is a tid bit per Cashin.
ReplyDeleteOT:
First Nostradamus, Then The Mayans And Now Saint Malachy – The Pope's announcement of his resignation from the Papacy has awakened new interests in the supposed Prophecies of St. Malachy. Malachy was born in Ireland around 1094 in, or around, Armagh, Ireland. He was canonized the first Irish saint by Pope Clement III in 1190 A.D.
Malachy was an Irish monk, who, on a visit to Rome was said to have had a vision of all the future popes. He catalogued each one with a descriptive Latin phrase and reportedly entrusted it to Pope Innocent II in 1140. There was little, if any, mention of the prophecies for the next 400 years.
In 1590, a Benedictine monk "discovered" them and published them five years later. The reason that Malachy's prophecies have re-flourished is that proponents claim Malachy indicated that the current Pontiff, Benedict XVI is the "next to last pope". Adherents say the next pope will be known as Peter the Roman and his reign will end in massive tribulation.
I guess folks need something to worry about now that we know that the Mayans miscalculated. Meanwhile, I'll keep an eye on Friday's asteroid.
F the asteroid, I think it's Cashin's hemorrhoids acting up. St. Malachy....only amongst all the Catholics (the lot of them being Italian and Irish) on Wall Street.
DeleteNext thing we'll hear about is his old aunt Mabel's bunions.
Is it just a coincidence that Malachy and Malarkey are so similar?
So the Mayans miscalculated infinity?
DeleteMonks drink like fish, right? Nice to see someone couldn't resist the temptation to gurgitate additional malarkey though, the astonishing part is it's free!
True. Normally a tale like that, entertaining as it is, would cost us at least a dram or two.
DeleteI have an idea about what might be pushing the gold/silver market down since the QE announcement in September -- a large drop in Indian gold imports. This factor can temporarily outweigh the increase in the world appetite for gold due to new QE announcements. It is impressive that gold/silver did not break their 2-year supports as a result of such a large drop in demand. When Indian demand finds a floor, then the regular factors should start pushing gold up. When Indian demand returns, it will be a double rocket for gold...
ReplyDeleteHere is an article about it:
Deletehttp://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-02-07/nagpur/36971575_1_duty-hike-customs-duty-gold-imports
So some investors might be waiting for the February imports to be announced before assessing the impact of the latest duty hike to 6%. At the same time, maybe they'll find a way to estimate the unofficial imports for gold in February...
Sounds like inflation, price of gold climbs 6% by government decree. They'll never run out of wealth redistribution devices, will they?
DeleteDMND @ 15.27...
ReplyDeleteI regret closing my options accounts for this reason. Yesterday was a no brainer short on DMND.
DeleteBeing a masochist I have decided to hold UGAZ for yet another day. I'm not convinced by this break below $3.25 just yet. i fully expect to open up down 15% tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAnd what's worse is I made the ultimate trader folly: I sold PACB at $2.34 today and bought more UGAZ at $18.55. The voice in my head is screaming "Sell the LOSERS, not the winners, you idiot".
DeletePort's GASS chart is screaming if it makes the break. GASS (stealth Gas) perfect name...better chart.
DeleteLOL, how'd I know you were gonna dump PACB right away?
Deletehehe! well i added a bunch in the low $2.2's so a 5% pop was ok with me :) i fully anticipate chasing higher if i want to get back in.
Deletealso looking at alternative setups and a few of them really intrigue me right now.
DeleteRight, I was looking for a good way to play excess natty last May and came up with MEOH just as it began crashing and general interest in chemicals was waning.
DeleteThe methanol play. Completely overlooked propylene.
•German minister dashes hopes for shale gas frackingat Reuters(Mon, Feb 11)
ReplyDelete•Low Gas Costs Lure German Chemical Cos. to U.S.at The Wall Street Journal(Mon, Feb 4)
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit order for 5 August $28 puts on KOLD at $4. Slowly scaling in as prices become better...
ReplyDeleteUNG - Must close over $20 before it can double.
ReplyDeleteMUX - Volume popped up, might have some sort of meaning?
ReplyDeletePerhaps indigestion......
DeleteGood afternoon.
ReplyDeleteHere's the chart of GASS I sent to Dave last night. He said it looks a little toppy to him. He thinks the pullback is too much and that it has just about given up all of its accelerated gains from 8.50 ish to 10 and back. He said this might be considered a First Thrust Down, and he did capitalize those.
http://www.screencast.com/t/xmHsgKoOG1R0
I consider his comments a valuable lesson myself, good stuff. My plan is to send him one chart once a week or maybe every two weeks.
Valuation is very compelling...they might be returning to paying a dividend by Q1.
DeleteFrom where, to where, do they transport natty, is my question. Perhaps that's my task to determine.
DeleteI bot a 1000 shares of TVIX at 4.56 to add to my underwater 24.50 ish VXX position. I won't be holding on to these for long. VXX made a new 52 week low today.
ReplyDeleteMy RNF and AAPL positions took a beating. Rough day.
Port, if you did not offload VXX during the recent increase in VIX above 14, there is definitely no reason to stop yourself out of VXX now, with VIX under 13. There is REALLY no space for VIX to fall further, so your position can only decay now due to contango in VIX futures, which is less than 10% per month. So your only decision now, I think, should be the height of the spike in VIX into which you'll sell your position.
Delete"Apple CEO dismisses cash-hoarding criticism, calls investor lawsuit 'silly sideshow'"
DeleteI'd prefer him call Pyongyang's actions a sideshow.
I was thinking about GE as a value stock since they were talking about the comcast deal on the way home from work. I'm looking at the 10 year chart and I don't think it fits for most of us, slooowwwww money. Maybe as a divvy play with some covered calls.
ReplyDeleteSPXU/TZA - I'm contemplating these, as they get cheaper and cheaper.
ReplyDeleteCan't help myself....
SPX December 2007 top was 1523.57
ReplyDeleteGASS - Does kinda look like the AAPL chart from late Sept.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete