Monday, February 11, 2013

2/11/13 Shutting Down

Sold off my small holding in PACB, and boarding up the port.  I think we see more attractive prices soon enough.

51 comments:

  1. PACB - For one thing, it isn't oversold enuff for me.

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  2. DMND - Of course! This is now the 3rd trade in a row that skyrocketed within 3 days of me exiting a large position.

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  3. Replies
    1. Are they talking about acquiring commercial property? I'm hearing a lot of buzz about commercial and NLY has been working on portfolio diversification into commercial.

      I'm not sure why I'm hearing about CRE lately, are internet sales going to be taxed going forward or is the big-box model about to experience an Renaissance?

      I've got a big bid sitting a few dollars below current price in the case of NLY, in case some big bank tries to run stops once again.

      AGNC is a popular one, check out their CC Q&A session, clueless analysts obtaining an education makes for good entertainment.

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  4. I think it's a great time to cash out.

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    1. Here's my take this morning: Don't let the market tell you what to do. Sure, I know we're all supposed to 'let prices tell us' what's happening. But I'm sure as hell not about to let it force my hand. I'm fine being out right now.

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    2. My conditioning tells me we're topping out for a correction, feels like a repeat of last year.

      Thinking of going short this time....

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  5. RDN - What do you make of that action?

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  6. MUX - Back to $3 again..... That was quick!

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  7. Wow check out how similar these charts are:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p96775939306

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PACB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p62093682146

    PACB is almost identical to the chart of AMBS around late Nov/early Dec.

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    Replies
    1. Robots controlling price, using algo's designed to psych out humans?

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  8. HII - This thing is just unstoppable.. I guess they make money on Navy ships regardless of if they rebuild or just provide mothball care.

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  9. DMND - Island reversal play, it seems.

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  10. Gold has just broken through its December lows, silver is on its way to do that. They formed such a nice symmetric flag pattern over the last few months and I thought it would break to the upside, given all QE that is going on. But no... Very strange, I must say...

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  11. I still think we need to test 1,475 if we're going to head to 1,550 on this run.

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    1. On the flip side, though, all we have done for 2 weeks now is trade sideways and that is VERY bullish in the grand scheme of things.

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  12. It is really interesting that TC is flat today despite the large drop in gold. After all, their upcoming gold mine is their only potential source of profit, given that their moly mines are not generating any profit now...

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    1. Is it a successful gold mine, FCX produces quite a bit of moly from their operations so high grade producers should begin lifting long before lower grade producers?

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  13. GMO - This issue is the remaining concern for GMO, the question of if Hanlong actually receives their GMO finance loan:

    "Hanlong Group Asked to Team Up with Home Peer Join our daily free Newsletter
    MENAFN - - 2/8/2013 5:33:07 AM

    Hanlong Group Asked to Team Up with Home Peer

    Feb 08, 2013 (Menafn - SinoCast Daily Business Beat via COMTEX) --Local private miner Sichuan Hanlong (Group) Co., Ltd. will once again defer its acquisition of Australian iron ore prospecting and exploration company Sundance Resources Limited.

    The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) demanded that Hanlong Group must ink agreement with another big Chinese partner to jointly develop Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project so as to continue its deal with Sundance Resources.

    The Mbalam-Nabeba project is under the control of Sundance Resources, located in West Africa, designed with an annual output of 35 million tons.

    Source: www.news365.com.cn (February 08, 2013)"

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  14. RDN - Well how 'bout that, these dip buying sharks swoop thinking they're getting a special deal while longs unload on them?

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  15. MOG - Mark, when are you going to admit you don't know anyone in the oil business?

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  16. I'm thinking of sitting in Hussman's corner of the bar this week.

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    1. I believe the Shiller trailing 10 year P/E on Nat Gas is around 2 which should project for 32% annualized gains going forward over the next 10 years.

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    2. Shiller, isn't that the metric that indicates equities are overpriced?

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    3. yeah it was a joke bro! you know, what with 2nd channeling Hussman and all...

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    4. It's a challenge pricing most anything in an ZIRP environment, which probably explains why so many indicators present distorted versions of reality?

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  17. When market drops and VXX drops tend to be frustrating days. Holding tight with VXX a bit more.

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    1. VXX is down today because of contango in the futures. The VIX is actually up today...

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    2. I'm long a little VXX, but it really is a piece of crap and that's why it will always be small.

      Gold, I guess when Asia and Brazil are closed there go the buyers.

      PACB is firming off of 50 day sma for all you gamers.

      And the 7th wonder of the world is an SP500 that never goes down. Goly golly miss molly.

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    3. You want to act like a man, then spit like a man.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYQUyR6bO9E

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    4. Not aware of a ETN/ETF that tracks realtime Vix? IT is a POS, but I typically do alright with it by giving it a tight leash.

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  18. Here we go again, cherry pickers striking:

    "The Economy Is Much Worse Than the Data Show"

    Don't anticipate European imports will increase if unemployment grows?

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  19. You're making a case for natty, I guess.

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  20. BAS - Received a downgrade, looks like.

    Ahead of earnings of course, pps has exceeded average target.

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  21. Gold - Buy the weakness, works every time.

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  22. PAA - BACML - "Plains All American L.P.: Earnings hit parade continues; raise PO to $58"

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  23. Continuing on the PACB / AMBS similarities: the indicator I use, RSI_EMA, to determine entry points bottomed at right around 30 on the daily chart of PACB. AMBS bottomed right around 30 on 11/30/12. The weekly charts on both are almost identical.

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  24. SLW - BACML has assigned an $50 price objective on this one:

    "Silver Wheaton Corp.: PO reduced to $50/sh; our top large cap precious metals pick
    January 08, 2013

    Silver Wheaton Corp.: Another watershed transaction"
    February 05, 2013

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  25. http://www.rbnenergy.com/ignition-timing-countdown-increase-in-natural-gas-demand-from-methanol

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