When I decide to cut back to 5-10 trades for the calendar year, you know I will stick to the resolution, come hell or high prices.
This blog, however, has lost its mooring. In the span of a single day, we've been subjected to (a) a murky episode from Lost in Space, (b) 7 minutes and 42 seconds of bird noise, and (c) MJNA retesting $0.50. Next thing you know, we'll see NSPH sell off below insider buying support at 2.40.
NSPH-
ReplyDeleteHaving side stepped that disaster, is it worth a shot here on the long side? 2.40 could be a brutal hurdle with the tapped longs and the trapped 10M share placement. It's still as real a possibility they won't make it to BE. Risk reward might not be worth it. Any thoughts from the traders?
1.65 is the next logical support. Can you hold down to that? Well, can ya punk?
DeleteAsk the guy who bet on earnings @ 2.76 around 355 pm.
DeleteI could say ask Slezak, but he probably quietly unloaded all of it over the past quarter.
DeleteAccording to the GPS inside their vehicles, both are currently parked outside watering holes.
DeleteI just checked. Still there.
DeleteIt's three of them. Moffitt has been there for a couple of days now.
DeleteThe one with the boot, then.
DeleteI can always post pictures again of Kendra?? Might get Illini to pop in once and a while.
ReplyDeletewtf. Well, I guess I can now safely back away from my resolutions. I'll claim 'lost in space' as my excuse.
ReplyDelete5-10 trades in a year? What was I smoking, MJNA?
Deleteone trade should be for YRCW long. stow it away for 2 years. you will not regret it.
DeleteYRCW boasts EPS of -3x its share price last year, and a book value -12x its share price.
DeleteSurely there must be something out there worthy of buying and holding, the task involves finding it. Personally, huge debt, ricky business models, and high cash burns aren't traits that appeal to me.
DeleteI hope you guys find something, or whatever, and you make tons of cash.
Read the last two quarterly reports...you'll see what I'm talking about 2nd. Its potentially the best turnaround story I've seen since NLS and PIR. I intend to hold this one for longer than my standard 2 week holding period.
DeleteOkay, I'll accept responsibility for the birds songs and trading MJNA three times today.
ReplyDeleteI missed (got faked out of) XXIA which is sort of pissing me off. Another "If I had just held it through the fake out move".....
GASS: So far Big Dave is wrong. Maybe it's a retrace/gatekeeper but it's profitable right now.
I got this wrong. The one I missed was AXLL.
DeleteRe: MUX : Operations Resumed at San Jose Mine
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by ChrisM (254 comments) on Wed, 02/13/2013 - 10:13 #117407 (in reply to #117402)
The operation stopped on Feb 4th, but MUX didn't report it until yesterday:
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb 12, 2013) - McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX)(MUX.TO) announces that operations at its 49% owned San José mine in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina were halted on Monday, February 4, 2013 due to seventy-six employees contracting gastroenteritis. There have been no further cases reported and all employees have recovered in full. It is anticipated that the mine will resume operation shortly. This disruption is not expected to have a material impact on McEwen Mining''s full-year production. The Company will provide a further update once operations resume.
Seventy-six employees literally shit-canned for ten days. The omniscient market has been pricing it in all week.
DeleteI suspect they're going to be selling their Argentina property, was it 68B lbs of copper, for pennies on the dollar of value(don't know what they paid for it, likely less?) to raise the several hundred million they need to develop non-Argentinean properties.
DeleteI'd probably suffer from indigestion if my currency was devalued 32% and inflation was well into double digits.
Forgot, I traded SOL twice and decided to hold a position because the solars are trending and SOL wasn't making the same moves at the open as SPWR and SCTY were so I could get in.
ReplyDeleteCareful, bro. It's starting to sound like you're making so much money you forgot to cash the $1000 check you were using as a bookmark. The politically correct way to post the above is to say after being SOL on solars the market gods appropriately decided to reward you with successive gains on SOL.
DeleteWell, usually I am sol.....but your explanation is accurate enough.
DeleteI had traded SOL previously and was dumb enough to sell my SCTY before it made the latest big move. SOL just kinda sat there so I bought some as a sector play. It seems to move, then pullback, them move, pullback etc. So today I traded it twice and then when we were seeing some strength into the close I bought a position I hope to hold.
Regrettably, no $1000 checks for bookmarks, although I do aspire to such wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen:
ReplyDeleteThe undersigned collectively own 14,724,737 shares (the “Shares”) of common stock, $0.01 par value per share (the “Common Stock”) of Nanosphere, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”). The Shares owned by each of the undersigned are set forth on the schedule attached hereto.
The undersigned hereby agree that, commencing on the date hereof and continuing until the three hundred and sixty-fifth (365th) day following the date set forth above (the “Lock-Up Period”), the undersigned will not, without the prior written consent of a majority of the Company’s disinterested directors (which consent may be withheld in their sole discretion), directly or indirectly, (1) sell, contract to sell, pledge, sell any option or contract to purchase, purchase any option or contract to sell, grant any option, right or warrant to purchase, lend, or otherwise transfer or dispose of any shares of the Common Stock, or any securities convertible into or exercisable or exchangeable for the Common Stock; (2) enter into any swap or other arrangement that transfers to another, in whole or in part, any of the economic consequences of ownership of the Common Stock, or any securities convertible into or exchangeable for the Common Stock, regardless of whether any such transaction described herein is to be settled by delivery of the Common Stock or such other securities, or by delivery of cash or otherwise; or (3) publicly announce any intention to do any of the foregoing.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, the restrictions set forth in clause (1) and (2) above shall not apply to transfers (a) as a bona fide gift or gifts, provided that the donee or donees thereof agree to be bound in writing by the restrictions set forth herein for the remainder of the Lock-Up Period, (b) by will or intestate succession, (c) to any trust for the direct or indirect benefit of the undersigned or the immediate family of the undersigned, (d) to any partner, member, stockholder or Affiliate (as defined in Rule 405 promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended) of the undersigned or (e) with the prior written consent of a majority of the Company’s disinterested directors, provided that in connection with transactions described in clauses (b), (c) and (d) above, the recipient (as applicable) agrees to be bound in writing by the restrictions set forth herein for the remainder of the Lock-Up Period and the related transfer shall not involve a disposition for value. For purposes of this Lock-Up Agreement, “immediate family” shall mean any relationship by blood, marriage or adoption, not more remote than first cousin. None of the restrictions set forth in this Lock-Up Agreement shall apply to Common Stock acquired in open market transactions after the date hereof.
Very clever.
DeleteAgreements like the above go a long way toward explaining marriages between first cousins. I'm referring not to the last two sentences, but to the lawyers who came up with the preceding paragraphs. For crying out loud.
ReplyDeleteHave any of you guys ever seen anything like this?
DeleteI recall reading something about directors not being allowed to sell certain shares unless the company is sold, or some time period expires, something like that.
DeleteThe guy who recently left I thought must've done so on his own b/c it seemed he got no severance?
Assuming PACB offers a superior product, what chance does NSPH have, and what system is Europe buying instead of NSPH's?
Here's the filing, my takeaway was Mr. Gibbons received no severance......
Deletehttp://www.faqs.org/sec-filings/121228/NANOSPHERE-INC_8-K/d459612dex101.htm
The really boggling aspect was he's staying on till end of April, I thought that was kinda strange...
DeleteMr. Gibbon's departure gave me a funny feeling, seems the share price began it's nose dive about the same time so I got out the first chance I had, $3, I think it was, just $0.01 below HOD, wheeeewwwwww!!!!!
MUX: "I suspect they're going to be selling their Argentina property, was it 68B lbs of copper, for pennies on the dollar of value(don't know what they paid for it, likely less?) to raise the several hundred million they need to develop non-Argentinean properties."
ReplyDeleteIf they do that, then I'll pile in heavy into MUX. At this point, however, I fail to see how anyone can hold MUX for the long term, considering the fact that Argentina has almost stopped the outflow of foreign funds from it, and can *completely* stop it at any point.
The idea involves a Chinese company as the buyer, just a theory I picked up somewhere. Supposedly Mc Ewen was or is scheduled to be in Argentina recently for a viewing of the property of some sort? Not many details available, probably.
DeleteYRCW - Speaking of indigestion, I'm gonna crap a brick if TOF's right about this one. I've learned not to doubt him while recognizing occasionally he gets it wrong.
ReplyDeleteOne thing for sure, he knows his way around the books, or that's my impression. I don't know what I'm looking at most of the time.
NSPH:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nanosphere.us/investors/press-releases
Board Member Changes; Commitment of Lurie Investments
The Company also announced the appointments of Sheli Z. Rosenberg, Michael J. Ward and Michael K. McGarrity to its board of directors, filling positions formerly held by Mark E. Slezak, Roy N. Davis, William T. White III and William P. Moffitt, all of whom resigned as directors. Ms. Rosenberg was appointed Chair of the board of directors and previously served on the Nanosphere board from 2002 to 2012. Ms. Rosenberg is Of Counsel at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP and is the former president, chief executive officer and vice chairman of Equity Group Investments. Mr. Ward is currently a Director at Lurie Investments responsible for managing investment activities. Prior to joining Lurie Investments in 2009, he gained over 15 years of investment banking experience at Credit Suisse, Prudential Securities, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, BMO and Leerink Swann. As an investment banker, Mr. Ward was primarily focused on M&A and financing transactions for life sciences companies.
Also, Lurie Investments together with its affiliates has executed a twelve-month voluntary lock-up agreement with Nanosphere, indicating its intent to hold its position and realize the value it believes exists within the Company. Lurie Investments and its affiliates hold approximately 14.7 million shares of common stock, representing approximately 26% ownership of the Company.
"On behalf of the Board, I want to thank Bill Moffitt for his years of valuable service in helping to make Nanosphere a leader in advanced molecular diagnostics," said Ms. Rosenberg. "We are confident in Mike McGarrity's ability to lead as Nanosphere enters the commercialization stage. We are pleased with the early signs of growth and excited about the opportunity to create significant shareholder value as we make additional progress toward the broad adoption of Nanosphere's technology as the industry-leading platform in advanced molecular diagnostics. We also appreciate the commitment of Lurie Investments to the success of Nanosphere," she continued.
Now here is the strange part. Slezak is the CFO of Lurie Investments.
Deletehttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=1920591
One of the Boards relacements is Mr. Ward who is a director of Lurie. There are alot of moving parts here but i do not think we will ever know what went down here.
I had a GTC order for NSPH at 2.54 which was not triggered AH and which I canx (pending).Anyone know who the person was behind the research to develop the product?
Ward has M&A experience, maybe they are going to shop the company. I will re-asses in the morning.
Delete"re-asses" hilarious!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAs TOF would say, fricken mine fields everywhere.
Deletehttp://www.annlurie.com/
DeleteMs Sheli Rosenberg, (former?) director of General Growth Properties?
DeleteAnn Lurie, philanthropist
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-04-09/business/ct-biz-0409-executive-profile-lurie-20120409_1_ann-lurie-philanthropist-executive-profile/2
Does the maiden initial "Z" stand for Zell?
Delete"CHICAGO, IL (April 19, 2010) — General Growth Properties, Inc. (NYSE: GGP) today announced its Board of Directors has named Sheli Z. Rosenberg as lead director of the Board effective immediately.
In the position of lead director, Ms. Rosenberg’s primary responsibilities include chairing the meetings of the independent directors, acting as liaison with management, assisting in the development of the Board’s agenda and chairing meetings of the Board in the absence of the chairman.
“Sheli’s expertise in sophisticated real estate transactions, along with her experience working with companies reviewing strategic alternatives and undergoing significant change, make her the ideal lead director for GGP,” said Adam Metz, chief executive officer of GGP. “We continue to build on our successes to date in restructuring our balance sheet and positioning the company for future growth. Sheli’s leadership will prove valuable as we move forward in considering the next stages of our strategic plan.”
Ms. Rosenberg joined the GGP Board of Directors on April 13, 2010. She is the former president, chief executive officer and vice chairwoman of Equity Group Investments, L.L.C., a privately held real estate investment firm and has been an adjunct professor at Northwestern University’s J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Business since 2003. She serves as a director of CVS Caremark Corporation, Nanosphere, Inc., Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc., and Ventas, Inc."
FBN - BB had mentioned this one might provide some level of entertainment in a post this morning.
ReplyDeleteCLF - Really took one on the chin as well, coal seemed to have held up better than I'd imagined today.
CP - I've been bullish on YRCW for 5 months now and while I haven't really been wrong, I haven't exactly been right. It's been trading sideways for that long, more or less. After seeing the results from last quarter, I'm officially a believer in this Welch guy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarcial/2012/04/13/with-a-new-ceo-and-revamped-board-is-yrc-worldwide-back-on-track-for-a-turnaround/
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/yrc-trailers-backed-up-after-sandy-ceo-says-6Z5lRRQuQiu~VDRfemN1tA.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/yrc-worldwide-s-james-welch-discusses-restructuring-audio-.html
The dude is not seems like a straight shooter, he is turning things around ahead of time. Just 18 months ago this company was literally on death's door. In that time since he became CEO, check out the operating income - keep in mind that Q4 and Q1 are the slowest quarters for them typically:
Q3 2011: $-24.0 Million
Q4 2011: $-38.1 Million
Q1 2012: $-48.8 Million
Q2 2012: $15.6 Million
Q3 2012: $27.3 Million
Q4 2012: $30.0 Million
Keep in mind that Hurricane Sandy crippled the entire northeast where a good chunk of their business takes place in and, again, Q4 is a weak quarter historically. Obviously I'm ignoring Net Income because there is none...however, that is changing quickly. They have about $33-$35 Million per quarter in Interest Expenses so for the past two quarters they were quite close to break-even if you exclude lots of one time charges/gains/losses etc. Given how strong their performance was last quarter, I would not be surprised to see a huge quarter come Q2 or Q3 of this year. It's one of the best turnaround opportunities I have seen in a while. I was waiting for this past quarter to make a decision on it and I'm pretty convinced now that this has some serious legs. I expected bad things this quarter and I expected the stock to test it's lows. Those results were way better than I expected.
arghhh stupid grammar meant to say "The dude not only seems like a straight shooter..."
DeleteConsider this: at the peak this was poorly managed by Zollars (old CEO) and still managed to attain a $3.5 Billion market cap (traded at $60 per share and had 57 million shares outstanding). They had an extremely bloated overhead structure and it all came crumbling down. Now the company is being pared down significantly and they're focusing exclusively on higher margin shipments and making everything run efficiently...then they will focus on re-growing the company. But for now, I'm willing to bet the company can turn a profit and then some by Q2. Can you imagine what that will do to the stock? After including fully diluted shares the share count of 22 million makes this a $150 MIllion company.
DeleteAnd let's say they are able to grow the company 10% over the next couple of years. That's $500 Million in additional revenues. Margins are 68%. So $350 in additional gross income. I'm willing to bet $150 Million of that falls to the bottom line. That's the entire market cap of the company right now AFTER including fully diluted shares with conversion prices at $14 and $33 per share.
The debt load is huge for this company, but they're so close to breaking even right now and their nearest debt deadlines are over 1.5 years away and their lenders are clearly behind their turnaround strategy (as evidenced by their willingness to renegotiate their loans and by S&P recently assigning high recovery ratings on their debt (back in September)). I bet the deadlines get pushed out further but that is definitely a risk. Shit there's a reason this is priced at a price to sales of 0.01 vs industry averages of 0.30 to 0.40.
This turnaround just looks so similar to SIRI to me. I bet within 3 to 4 years they are a $3 Billion company again, meaning the stock goes up 20 fold. For that reason, I'm put some money on the pass line and stowed some away in my son's college fund.
Wow, thanks for summarizing all that, I really appreciate it. Okay, my interest is increasing now...
DeleteI'm still waiting to read the 10-q, though because one thing I noticed is that shareholders equity dropped quite a bit last quarter. I'm assuming it's related to losses on asset sales or write downs but I want clarification on it. I "only" have about 10% of the port in it so far because of this.
DeleteThey had a big jump in Other Comprehensive Loss in the quarter. I was looking around to see if I could find more details and it is poorly documented. There was nothing on the concall about it and all the last quarterly says is "Reclassification of net pension actuarial losses to net loss", so probably it is because their pension deficit increased due to lower rates and possible poor returns. If that's the case, you could see some giveback on this as rates rise.
DeleteI also still own YRCW, but it is a smaller position for me due to the high risk in this stock. I do think the risk/reward is very good though and probably will hold it for a couple of years.
Tele- I'm guessing Selzak was fired from Luire. Lurie isn't public so we wouldn't know.
ReplyDeleteOne of the articles stated Selzak was Robert Luire and Sam Zell's accountant, that's a really LT relationship gone bad if true.
DeleteMark - NQ?
ReplyDeleteNot sure how I stumbled upon this but a good read from the CEO of Zappos:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.inc.com/magazine/20100601/why-i-sold-zappos.html
I can attest to the significance of corporate culture. On an individual basis, it's often well hidden from management, as well.
DeleteCP - You mentioned FIO...definitely looks like a good set up at $14.90.
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps if it rises and holds onto $17.41? I'm not real keen on it, not knowing enough about it really to satisfy my confidence.
DeletePAL - $300m shelf
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Shorts seem to love this one with the premise that once you're on top there's only one way to go; down.
ReplyDeleteGold - The following can only be interpreted as a buy signal?
"UPDATE 2-Gold demand falls in 2012 for first time in 3 years
8 minutes ago Thomson Reuters"
You're getting the hang of it!
DeleteObviously, closing UGAZ yesterday following tof's exit was a good idea. Make that a great idea.
ReplyDelete"Having side stepped that disaster, is it worth a shot here on the long side?"
ReplyDeleteRemember to wear your tall Uggs, should you accept the mission.
Gold demand down last year: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/14/ab-gold-wgc-idUSL5N0BE8P420130214
ReplyDeleteThe especially bad thing for BC and the boys is jewelry demand (consumption) is falling, but investment demand from central banks at a 48 year high.
A lot of people throughout history have died from consumption.
DeleteBack in UGAZ only for a trade...$19.05
ReplyDeleteLike any good politician UGAZ is the king of empty promises and broken dreams...
DeleteGaming the inventory report?
Deletenah...gaming a move to 3.32 before it. i'll bail if it happens.
DeleteNSPH preparing to dive below 2.
ReplyDeleteThar she blows!!!
Deleteouch...guessing everyone here is out of that one.
DeleteYeah, we all bailed before earnings. I'm looking rally hard at 1.85.
Deleteit's headed your way right now
DeleteNot sure what illini has done with his.
DeleteTrying 1.85
Deletewait...for it to rally hard at $1.85 or REALLY hard at buying at $1.85?
Deletewas that you at .83? the bitch looks way too slippery for me. if you are in good luck!
DeleteZ: $46 > $23 > $46 in 5 months. wow.
ReplyDeleteThe political guru is at Starbucks again (yes, Mark, I'm here again)! He's now talking about how housing is going to drop hard again as soon as the Fed starts raising rates. Oh boy! I take it the media is talking about this.
ReplyDeleteYes, the rate raise idea is being been floated? Paraphrased: "Too much reaching for rates, rushing into REIT's"
DeletePerhaps banks have completed unloading their MBS's?
Nuke outings up to 15,000 MW...could spark a short lived rally in natty.
ReplyDeleteOr mitigate downside?
DeleteOK, 10K at 1.85 and 10K at 1.83.
ReplyDeletenice!!
Delete20K off at 1.91
DeleteClosed at 1.91, right?
DeleteClosed SNE and TZOO (flyers at 1200 shares and 900 shares, respectively) for an overall gain of $52. No volume on TZOO, is there? My market order for the 900 shares closed in SIX lots at prices ranging from 21.11 to 21.32!
ReplyDeleteI'm really planning to board up for awhile. At least 10-15 minutes.
"I'm really planning to board up for awhile. At least 10-15 minutes."
Deletei give it til 7:35 when a major move in natty sparks you to enter ugaz/dgaz.
TZOO - this one is going to take some time in my opinion. the catalyst comes in Q3/Q4 when the booking platform is fully operational and they're cranking out $0.40+ EPS quarters. Funny thing about 90% margins is any incremental revenues tend to help out the bottom line.
Jumpin' Jack Flash it's a GASS, GASS, GASS!
ReplyDeleteGV - Another nice day, among many.
ReplyDeleteHeavy volume in PACB this morning.
ReplyDeleteCC/tof> Not taking much to stoke you guys this morning. +1% in GASS, 24000 shares in PACB?
ReplyDeleteGASS> that's more like it.
DeleteGASS has more than half it's normal daily volume already.
DeleteI got in at 9.06 and I don't see why it can't get to the previous high of 10.30
PACB has a ways to go to get high volume. Less than 10% of the normal daily....
1.78 is the next interesting level.
ReplyDeleteBut I'll probably stay clear. I want to keep the 1,300 bucks.
DeleteVG - My $2.77 sell order is filling... this might be one that has to be traded by loading the dips and selling the rips.
ReplyDeleteGV - This thing is strong, not sure why you guys don't like it.
ReplyDeleteSimultaneous rate raise and secastration, bears are dreaming.
ReplyDeleteLVLT - WTH is wrong with this thing......
ReplyDeleteanyone happen to get a hold of that nat gas inventory report ahead of schedule? debating what to do here and would love to have it on hand...position is much smaller than yesterday so only sweating mildly right no.
ReplyDeleteIf the huge drop in volume in UNG is any indication then it makes a big move higher.
DeleteIt's just too ----ing hard to game the report.
Deletewell i didn't sell before but i did triple my position at $17.6 and i now have a cost basis of $18.08. now about 3/4 of my position from yesterday...palms are sweaty. Stop is now below lows of the day.
DeleteYRCW - Okay, aside from normal earnings events, is there any sort of schedule for extracurricular scary events where potential for exploitable moments of doubt may occur?
ReplyDeleteFor example, I could see earnings pressure build if the economy returned to recession for some reason, although I don't place a high probability on this.
recession would hurt them for sure. that is the biggest risk. otherwise if we steadily improve i just see it being a steady improving situation...
Deletethat was quick. Lost $6k on that bad trade.
DeleteQ1 is generally weak - could get a pullback on poor headline numbers.
Delete"Q1 is generally weak"
DeleteGood point. And this time could be an exception, working off Sandy backlog in combination with economic tailwinds? I think you already mentioned these.
Maybe I get a lucky break and the YRCW gap up fills combined with a potential retest of lower trend line? No trend line test might be a positive signal?
Decided to sell that French Water Company Veolia (VE) and move the money to add to my position in Spanish Utility Iberdrola (IBDRY). Actually made a $150.
ReplyDeleteResults from IBDRY out today and they continue to be on a good track, the risk is lower from the Spanish government now, P/E still under 9, dividend yield still high single digits.
Think IBDRY has an easier time of it than VE due to more regulated businesses. Plus, trades at half of valuations of most similar utilities, even though 70% of profits from outside Spain.
I'm wondering what happens when eurobanks are forced to raise their capital? Scary buying op?
DeleteRight on lower trend line, I'd probably take a position except my broker currently has a lower short term valuation target.
DeleteURA - Hmm, this one almost looks decent if $6.94 holds today.
ReplyDeleteFor what its worth I bought some DGAZ at $22.30 and am playing for more downside which is nearly impossible but I suspect it's the hard trade to made right now. Keeping a short leash on it.
ReplyDeleteSold! Made $1k back. Done for the day with this bull shit. I believe all told I lost about $1k on this. What a waste of time.
Deletethat is, on the UGAZ/DGAZ trades. The grief to return ratio is just not worth it.
DeleteSID - Wouldn't ya know, this one opens up a penny higher... Tough call considering that lower low a couple days ago.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see it clear $5.50 on volume. It's been capped at $5.48 for a little while.
DeleteSCTY - This one might need a 50% retest of Monday's ~$16.15 candle?
ReplyDeletehttp://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=scty&ty=c&ta=0&p=i15&s=l
What's a candle?
DeleteNew institutional holders on YRCW:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/716006/000119312513055926/d486208dsc13ga.htm
I bought more shares at $6.68 to $6.8 today.
LVLT boasts large tute holding as well, my broker has a $37 target on it.
DeleteTesting your ornithophobic resistance here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7PPklnae-k
I came face to face with one of these monsters this morning.... Their call is a nasal "kent", similar to the toot of a child's tin horn.
We have a lot of Pileated Woodpeckers here and they sound like woody woodpecker, almost a laugh. They tend to sound off when they fly or are alarmed.
DeleteThey are the largest North American Woodpecker.
I didn't hear any woodpecker sounds in this video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gyxBzdBz5A
DeleteWe call 'em "Oh my God!" birds, because of their striking size and the way they flutter all about, kinda like they don't know which direction they're headed.
DeleteSorry there weren't calls, I couldn't screen the vid.
I call them La Cucaracha birds because when they get to carrying on it sounds like a tropical forest. They seem to know where they are going around here as they tend to fly in straight lines with their weird flap, flap, glide wing beat. And when they are after bugs in a tree it's like wooden drum beats. They are pretty impressive.
DeleteCP, when looking at stocks like IBDRY, I find it best to use global sites like Reuters and to look at the native listing - IBE.MC. Many times, especially with ADR's the US sites have the wrong info (eg. mess up with currency, shares, dividend frequency).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=IBE.MC
Thanks BB, you're quite right. Even my broker's data is sometimes incorrect. My previous message was unclear, wasn't referencing IBDRY and I haven't looked at IBDRY yet. I should've said, my broker covers VE, the current target is somewhere in the vicinity of $9ish if I recall.
DeleteAdded more TZOO at $21.1 today. I have my eyes on the momo move by the end of the year.
ReplyDelete$21.1299 to be precise. i always wonder what happened to those 0.0001
Delete0.0001 falls off into the data bit bucket, the presence indicates to me that robot wars are in progress. ;)
DeleteYeah, most brokers don't let humans place orders priced in more than two figures past a decimal unless they are penny stocks. So if you see those in larger priced stocks it's either some gigantic whale or a black box.
DeleteI should have remembered that NG always drops in the last months of the winter, then makes a bottom in March-April, and then makes a little rally into the summer AC demand...
ReplyDeleteGLD today broke decisively through its December low, SLV has almost reached that low. I expect SLV to break through that low during the upcoming S&P correction. THEN, when SLV, GLD retest their July lows, THAT will be the time to buy the miners...
ReplyDeleteFrom SA article about Einhorn:
ReplyDelete"Hedge funds are excellent stock pickers when it comes to small-caps. Our research has shown that the most popular small-cap stocks among hedge funds beat the market by 18 percentage points per year on the average over a 10-year analysis period."
GEL - BACML reaffirms $46 target
ReplyDeleteMET - Reiterate $43 target, core earnings trend exceeds estimate.
ANGI - Raise to $23
DF - Maintain buy, lower estimate from $21 to $20
"2Q will likely be the “show me” quarter this year
The BofAML macro base case remains one of High Liquidity and Low Growth. We
maintain a bullish, reflationary outlook for asset prices in 2013. That said,
reflationary policies have had a much bigger impact on investor sentiment (up a lot)
than economic activity (not up a lot) in recent months. 2Q is likely to be the “show
me” quarter this year, where policy makers must prove that they can actually
stimulate the economy. If successful, then expect a negative reaction from rates and
liquidity. If unsuccessful, then EPS expectations are likely to reverse.
Either way, with investor sentiment so positive, (see our new Bull & Bear Index)
and fiscal austerity set to hit the US , we doubt risk assets are likely to replicate
their outsized gains from recent months. The Great Rotation theme is risksupportive,
but even assuming volatility stays low and the macro remains in a
trading range, the best outcome is for equities and other risk assets is to grind
higher in coming months.
Asset allocation recommendations
While sentiment makes us cautious short term, we remain constructive on equities
on a 6 month view. Moreover on a relative basis, equities still offer the most
attractive returns versus bonds, commodities and cash, in our view. Regionally
within equities, we are bullish US, Europe, and Japan, neutral EM and bearish UK
and Pac Rim. Within fixed income we are bullish High Yield, neutral EM debt, and
bearish government, quasi sovereign, IG bonds and collateralized debt. We remain
neutral on commodities. Within the asset class, we are bullish on precious metals,
neutral on energy and industrial metals and bearish on agriculture.
The risks and what to watch
The biggest risk to investor positioning right now is any event that causes data,
yields or volatility to break out of their recent trading ranges. The big 2013 risks
remain a Bond Crash (in France or the US), a Currency War (between Japan,
Europe and EM) or inflation. In coming weeks we would watch the following: US
labor market; 10y UST (2.25-2.3% range); oil prices; inflation breakeven levels;
Chinese exports; German and French PMIs; relationship between bonds and FX."
Tomorrow - Another bear trap morning?
ReplyDeleteGMO testing 200SMA, so far so good. Will Hanlong succeed procuring the Chinese bank loan?
It is really strange, though, that GDX is up today despite gold and silver being down. Are the traders already "looking over the current valley" in gold and silver to a longer term future?
ReplyDeleteNIHD, if anyone is still interested in this one you should take a look.
ReplyDeletePossible double bottom from 8 days ago and basically from support from base of b/o of 5.40 in DEC.
FWIW
still long
"NII Holdings: Potential turning point pushed out 2/5/2013 7:58 PM
DeleteWe cut our 2013-2015 EBITDA estimates by 26%/year on avg., and so our PO to $4.00 from $6.00 following the release of a much weaker 2013 outlook from NIHD. Reiterate Underperform."
There's a report available, not sure if this has already been delivered through the TT transponder service.
Yeah, no doubt investors did not like the news on 5 FEB, but it had a big turn around today off of that 5 FEB woosh, someone stepped up.
DeleteThanks for the info CP.
TC - PO $2.20
ReplyDelete"Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc.: Senior secured notes should increase flexibility. Risks remain
Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc.: Senior secured notes should increase flexibility. Risks remain
November 13, 2012
Analyst(s): Cabrera, Oscar|Forster, David|
Thompson Creek announced a $350mn senior secured note offer. While the financing increase flexibility to deal with potential Mt. Milligan capex overruns & low moly prices, development risks remain"
Folks, take a look at the ^TNX chart. How much clearer an uptrend can be? So we now have an overvalued, overbought, overbullish market with a rising yield syndrome. Last summer, investors had an allocation between stocks and bonds based on the relative yields of both. As the bond yields keep increasing, the equilibrium allocation has to change, right? THAT'S why nothing moves in a straight line, and the higher bond yields go, the more temptation investors will have to park their money temporarily in bonds, while waiting for the stock market to pull back. This is the classical "jaws of death" syndrome...
ReplyDeleteMUX - "There are no BofAML Research reports available at this time McEwen Mining Inc"
ReplyDeleteGG - PO lowered to $54, production costs
Goldcorp Inc $54.00 Buy
Newmont Mining Corp $57.00 Neutral
Barrick Gold Corp $50.00 Buy
Yamana Gold Inc $25.00 Buy
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd $60.00 Buy
Eldorado Gold Corp $19.00 Buy
Looks like coal producers like low NG prices -- check out the rally in ANR and BTU today!
ReplyDeleteANR moved off of earnings.
DeletePO $8 Alpha Natural Resources: Q4 beat on lower costs not seen sustained into 2013E
DeleteFebruary 14, 2013 09:14 AM ET
Consol PO $36 Buy
UNG went long stop is between 17.38 and 17.12 based off of the low of UNG
ReplyDeleteCC GASS was a great call, I like the space of LNG tankers its gone up along with LNG (stock) I'm going to try and get on pull back, but i think it going to have a good future LT.
Thanks for mentioning.
I type for chit.
UNG, so staid compared to UGAZ.
DeleteI think it is time to start scaling into SPY puts. Just bought 2 June $156 puts at $7.20 each.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteCentral banks last year bought most gold since 64
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- The world s central banks last year bought 534.6 tons of gold in 2012, the most since 1964, as global gold demand hit a record value level, the World Gold Council said Thursday in a quarterly report. Purchases by central banks for the full year rose 17% compared with 2011, while fourth-quarter purchases of 145 tons marked a 29% rise from the same period a year earlier. "Central banks move from net sellers of gold to net buyers that we have seen in recent years has continued apace," with official sector purchases across the world now at their highest level for almost half a century, said Marcus Grubb, managing director for investment at the World Gold Council. In value terms, total gold demand in 2012 was $236.4 billion, an all-time high, the council said.
Yep, probably bought it all back from those same insider special interest groups they sold it to just over a decade ago.
DeleteCraig- Still holding GASS? Take half off, or all of it?
ReplyDeleteStill have half whicdh is a little UW now but I think I'll endure a little pain as I did well with the first half.
DeleteRe-entered SCTY on the pullback as small as it was.
Traded SOL a couple times again, still holding 1000 shares.
SPWR was insane. The service guys who held it are well over 100% up on their second loaf. The entry was 5.50.
Also did good with the hooch MJNA, still holding....
I'm not a fan of the weak close but the blue arrow is still up.
DeleteNow with large positions in TZOO at $21.2 and YRCW at $6.7. Still hold a tiny position in PACB at $2.32 that I have written off either way because the size makes up 1% of my portfolio. I've scoured for stocks that have the potential to triple over the next 12 months and TZOO/YRCW are the two best I came across that give me a level of comfort with holding. I'm going to try my best to hold these for at least 3 to 6 months and see them through the ups and downs. I'm sick of stressing out about Nat Gas and wasting the past week watching it return me less than -1%. I'll let you know if I come across anything else that looks good. Peace out and best of luck!
ReplyDeleteIt good to take a break and de-compress, trading is stressful. I have done very little in the month of FEB.
DeleteSounds like a good trade to me, better than battling the Borg.
DeleteIn other words, we'll hear from you in about 5 minutes with an entry into TVIX?
ReplyDeleteGASS - Done letting off steam?
ReplyDeleteTrying 1.75.
ReplyDeleteBailed. Not worth it.
DeleteThought you had it!
DeleteMight take a week or two for folks to realize it's deadness? I guess it gets taken private and never turns a profit.
So how many minutes of bird noise were we able to generate today?
ReplyDelete2:48 of birds and background traffic. Awesome!
DeleteTurn it up!!!!
Deletehttp://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/2013/02/13/u-s-shale-gas-revolution-hits-asia/
ReplyDeleteCSCO - How many shorts were trapped today?
ReplyDeleteTRIN spiked to 0.95 then back down to 0.79 a few minutes later.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteARR - What happened to this one?
ReplyDeleteThis is portfolio expansion, not dilution???
"ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Announces Public Offering of 65,000,000 Shares of Common Stock GlobeNewswire"
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ReplyDelete