I said the same thing to my wife. The only thing new was the swatting at his face and suddenly reaching for water. Apparently they don't have any other ideas, only what already has failed for 40 years.
Natty is a better choice over coal in terms of CO2 emissions, that's for sure. Unless it's Republican clean coal, LOL! Could cause a little natty rally, and maybe URA as well?
Nice Q4 from MGIC. Revenue up 12% for the year. Non-Gaap profit up 29%.
Can't understand why this trades at a Forward P/E under 9. Dividend is variable based on profits (like Euro-companies), but 4% now and more likely to go up than down.
Might be because it is Israeli and they tend to get a discount or because have a Polish majority shareholder, so little chance of takeout.
Maybe this Q's results will be the bump to get it going.
Beat on revenue by $8 million, in-line in expected loss once you exclude writedowns (I'm assuming they should be excluded, never know with brokers). But really big loss on overall profits.
Could get hit hard because of the loss, or perhaps traders will be positive due to higher than expected revenues and seeing the writedown as a kitchen sink quarter.
Gold - Real production costs exceed price in many cases?
Makes me think physical demand isn't robust, if price doesn't support production cost.
Indians won't buy as much gold if they think it's overpriced, even if the monsoon puts money in their pockets. On top of that, the diesel subsidies are/have ended?
ORBC is very interesting to me. In the same space as SWIR but much better fundamentally and technically. Nice recurring revenue base, solid balance sheet. Machine to machine (M2M) is going to be all the rage soon...
If this was the peak then Saut freaking nailed it.
"Today is session 23 in the typical 17- to 25-session duration of a “buying stampede.” Such skeins only have one- to three-session pauses or pullbacks before they exhaust themselves on the upside. While a few have lasted for 25 – 30 sessions, it is very rare to have one last for more than 30 sessions. That said, this one feels like it will extend towards the State of the Union address slated for February 12th. That address will likely be viewed negatively by the equity markets, which should serve to finally bring about a 5 – 7% correction. How the stock market reacts following such a pullback will tell us a lot about the market’s future direction. In the interim I favor the upside with the caveat that this rally is long of tooth."
I don't know if it is but Nat Gas is acting like it is...especially if it can clear $3.32.
David - Thanks man. To be fair I bought a big chunk at $19.5 last week so my average is around $19.2. Timing wasn't great but good enough! Hope you're still holding the KOLD puts.
I would really like to see a further rally heading into the report tomorrow to get shorts squeezed. It could set the stage for a rally to $3.60. I just have my doubts they will do that though. I suspect they will hold it around $3.32 going into the report which makes it hard to hold a large position long or short. There are going to be some major fireworks soon.
Ever feel like maybe you're getting dumped on by analysts, do they know what they're talking about?
LVLT - +78% Upside price objective? 2/12/13 - BACML Price objective: $37.50, a +78% differential from today's price.
"Reiterate Buy rating $37.50 price objective We reiterate our Buy rating and $37.50 price objective. Level 3 represents the best risk/reward with the most company specific drivers in our alternative carrier coverage universe. Our $37.50 price objective is based on a weighted average of our Bear, Base and Bull case scenario analysis."
By the way, there is always the possibility that we just slowly work our way up to 1,700 much like the 1980 rally. If that happens I want to be in the momo stocks like TZOO which i think will make its way back up to $50. If they get that booking platform rolled out by Q3 and the market is up above 1,600, watch that sucker fly, pun intended.
I cashed in UGAZ. moron for not doing it when natty was at $3.32. I feel like it will provide us a chance to load more at $3.25 tomorrow. we shall see.
Fourth quarter customer placements of 56 represents continued acceleration of new customer growth in the U.S. Nanosphere management, during the last quarterly conference call, provided guidance around the low end of the previously disclosed range of 60 to 80 placements for the fourth quarter of 2012. Disappointing demand in Europe resulted in total placements that were lower than expected for the quarter.
Costs and operating expenses were $38.0 million in 2012, remaining flat relative to 2011. Costs of sales increased from $1.8 million in 2011 to $3.5 million in 2012, driven by increased volume. Selling, general and administrative expenses in 2012 increased to $16.9 million from $16.2 million as field sales and customer support teams were expanded. Research and development expenses decreased from $20.0 million in 2011 to $17.6 million in 2012 as a result of a shift in resources from development to manufacturing and customer support as commercialization accelerated.
Net loss for 2012 was $32.9 million, compared with $35.4 million in 2011. Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2012 decreased to $7.6 million compared with $8.6 million for the same period in 2011 and $8.7 million in the third quarter of 2012.
Cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2012 was negative $8.8 million including $1.5 million of investments in inventory to support system placements. Full year 2012 cash flow from operations was negative $31.7 million, of which $4.8 million was driven by increases in inventory. Cash at December 31, 2012 was $33.1 million.
Nanosphere is evaluating debt facilities to help manage its working capital needs and is currently in discussions with debt providers.
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2013, the Company expects to generate between $13 million and $15 million in product revenue and between 200 and 250 customer placements.
Nanosphere had previously provided guidance in the range of 80 to 100 placements for the first quarter of 2013. Slower than anticipated growth in international markets and the timing of projected regulatory approvals of the Company’s gram negative blood stream infection and its enteric pathogens panels make 45-55 placements more likely in the first quarter.
Well, that's the second guy to bail in the past couple months.
First MLNX, then NSPH, incident rate seems high, which others were there? Where'd these ideas originate from in the first place, has a nefarious pumper infiltrated TT?
still combing through the YRCW details and waiting for the quarterly report to come out but I really like what I see. I've been buying in small chunks for the past couple of days at $6.7 avg. still lots of risks with this one but the trend is pretty clear IMO.
this is a total crap shoot but i thought long and hard about natty and my guess is this is what happens with Natty:
one more test of $3.24/3.25 overnight or around the report, then a rally to possibly as high as $3.45 and then a washout lower to fill the gap around $3.00..possibly slightly break the 200 DMA before it resumes its rally higher.
The lower lows just recently made me a lot more suspicious of this bottoming pattern. I'll probably be wrong but I don't think the $3.05/$3.10ish lows were the final lows.
CP - What were those two plastics/propane plays from the other day? I have a friend that wants exposure to the natty game somehow with a dividend play and i wanted to pass them on to him...
PDH/BERY/EPD is proper time horizon, EPD bring on their additional conversion plant(s) over the next couple of years so more growth is the story(already pretty dang huge).
Did gold step off the dance floor? Looks like a square dance to me.
ReplyDeleteJust an old fashioned love song.
"The problem with the above? Volume. "
ReplyDeleteLOL, aren't these things supposed to track an index? Proof that a tree falling in the forest, doesn't make noise?
I think it's b/c average investors wouldn't know the difference between a contango and the tango.
DeleteThere's a difference?
DeleteTango is a style of square dance, contango is the dance gold does.
DeleteSGG - Looks like South America's gonna get hosed on their sugar crop this year?
ReplyDeleteJO is caffeine free.
JVA - Hmm....
GV - This is the Florida infrastructure construction company I'd lost track of.
ReplyDeletePIKE is another
Delete3D Printing
ReplyDeletePower Grid
Bridges
Reeducation
Manufacturing
I noted the 3D printing also. Too funny.
ReplyDeleteForgot a couple, one was getting autos off oil.
DeleteRebuttal - Seriously, who wrote that same grand old line?
ReplyDeleteI said the same thing to my wife. The only thing new was the swatting at his face and suddenly reaching for water. Apparently they don't have any other ideas, only what already has failed for 40 years.
DeleteWe're not gonna get a sell off, are we? Analysts are gonna have to keep on upgrading, huh?
ReplyDeleteTOF- You got Z covered AH's tomorrow?
ReplyDeletei'll be watching for sure.
DeleteACI - Island reversal play?
ReplyDeleteOh boy, this one might really get smacked down after Obama's SOTU address section re:global warming?
All the girls over at Twitz have their panties in a bunch over natty because of the speech.(HEK).
DeleteNatty is a better choice over coal in terms of CO2 emissions, that's for sure. Unless it's Republican clean coal, LOL! Could cause a little natty rally, and maybe URA as well?
DeleteWPRT/CLNE?
CCH - Do ya like this chart?
ReplyDeleteVE - So is it just a transaction tax we have to pay, surely we don't pay gains taxes to French government?
ReplyDeleteNBG - We could buy this one and just hold onto it for a year or so?
ReplyDeleteOh maybe not a good idea, German, French and Greek banks all have to raise capital.
DeleteHmm, didn't US equities sell off the last time euro banks were forced to raise capital?
I read a while back that NBG will have to raise capital and the equity holders will end up with nothing. Didn't dig into, but fwiw.
DeleteIRE - Am I looking at an handle of C&H? Doesn't this bank have to raise capital?
ReplyDeleteCP I've been watching NBG closely and waiting for a buy trigger...
ReplyDeleteSCTY - I bet solar continues on it's merry way.
ReplyDeleteNice Q4 from MGIC. Revenue up 12% for the year. Non-Gaap profit up 29%.
ReplyDeleteCan't understand why this trades at a Forward P/E under 9. Dividend is variable based on profits (like Euro-companies), but 4% now and more likely to go up than down.
Might be because it is Israeli and they tend to get a discount or because have a Polish majority shareholder, so little chance of takeout.
Maybe this Q's results will be the bump to get it going.
FBN will be interesting this morning.
ReplyDeleteBeat on revenue by $8 million, in-line in expected loss once you exclude writedowns (I'm assuming they should be excluded, never know with brokers). But really big loss on overall profits.
Could get hit hard because of the loss, or perhaps traders will be positive due to higher than expected revenues and seeing the writedown as a kitchen sink quarter.
Eurobanks - So what happens when eurobanks are forced to raise cash, does it have an impact on markets?
ReplyDeleteWill it cause euro companies (such as VE) to sell off?
The market already has priced this in, as has been proven so many times before?
MOH - BACML upgrade
ReplyDeleteDE - Deere delivers
TLM - Talisman misses
B/A on GASS is interesting this AM.....
ReplyDeleteMy take is, the stock looks cheap. BWDIK?
DeleteThe thing is, for me, most all oil patch stocks are nearing my broker's target. Either they get upgraded or trade sideways to downward?
DeleteTLM - Target is $15, pps is $12.51 - Is the market likely to move it another 20% and perhaps beyond?
The BoE raised their inflation outlook ahead: contributing to weaker GBP and higher Gilt yields.
ReplyDeleteWFC - Mortgage origination's softening.
Heard today, real estate inventory in DC region has become sparse. Potential sellers waiting.
Gold - Real production costs exceed price in many cases?
ReplyDeleteMakes me think physical demand isn't robust, if price doesn't support production cost.
Indians won't buy as much gold if they think it's overpriced, even if the monsoon puts money in their pockets. On top of that, the diesel subsidies are/have ended?
DMND off @ 15.51...
ReplyDeleteThat looks like a 50% retrace reversal. Good entry!
DeleteNice. Just don't look at your screen now!
Deletef-----------------------!
DeleteI say it dips under $15, maybe.......???
DeleteNLY - I'm kinda surprised my position didn't get hit with Obama's SOTU position on refinancings.
ReplyDeleteQuite the opposite, must be result of mortgage companies business softening?
Could be a good few months for REIT's?
Resistance is futile.
ReplyDeleteIsn't that from a Star Trek episode?
DeleteLost in Space, no?
DeleteScotty, beam us the ---- out of this conversation. Please ;)
DeleteNEVER!!!
DeleteGood call CP! Your right...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEvZVoe6zlw
Killjoy! ;)
Delete"Good call"
DeleteAnd to think I occasionally consider donating the betamax library........ :O!!!!!!
ORBC is very interesting to me. In the same space as SWIR but much better fundamentally and technically. Nice recurring revenue base, solid balance sheet. Machine to machine (M2M) is going to be all the rage soon...
ReplyDeleteGV - Defying gravity
DeleteORBC - Nice, I love that kinda stuff.
DeleteWhatever happened to the micro gyro thingy, I forgot ticker.......
INVN?
DeleteACI - Yep, the dirty energy producers face plant?
ReplyDeleteI bet Porta-pie is watching CLF.
ReplyDeleteAnd to think NSC barely flinches....... Not being familiar with the distribution routes, although there has been a correlation with coal....
Deletehttp://www.theonion.com/articles/area-man-relieved-to-hear-state-of-union-still-str,31274/
ReplyDelete"Continued improvement" was my interpretation.
DeleteVG - Thanks for feedback, never can tell when your kidding or sarcastic......
WFR = wow
ReplyDeleteHere is another one I found that is very interesting: TRGT. Check out this article from Feuerstein:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11706307/1/the-targacept-secret-that-wall-street-doesnt-want-you-to-know-about.html
lo and behold, america's favorite leveraged inverse ETF, UGAZ, shelters us from the storm.
ReplyDeleteVG results were solid. that sucker is dirt cheap.
ReplyDeleteIf this was the peak then Saut freaking nailed it.
ReplyDelete"Today is session 23 in the typical 17- to 25-session duration of a “buying stampede.” Such skeins only have one- to three-session pauses or pullbacks before they exhaust themselves on the upside. While a few have lasted for 25 – 30 sessions, it is very rare to have one last for more than 30 sessions. That said, this one feels like it will extend towards the State of the Union address slated for February 12th. That address will likely be viewed negatively by the equity markets, which should serve to finally bring about a 5 – 7% correction. How the stock market reacts following such a pullback will tell us a lot about the market’s future direction. In the interim I favor the upside with the caveat that this rally is long of tooth."
I don't know if it is but Nat Gas is acting like it is...especially if it can clear $3.32.
if this is the pullback, remember to keep a close eye on what is holding up strong. that's your key for things to go long after the pullback ends.
DeleteYes, absolutely! ;) Worry index uptick.....
DeleteLong GASS at 9.06, was a little late....
ReplyDeleteSold MJNA at .48, repurchased at .42 after KO.
ReplyDeleteNice on a cool late winter day....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNNX3f3_svo
AUMN provides 2013 operating plan, which looks very positive:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-Feb-12-13-Operating-Plan.pdf
The market seems to like this plan... I would be buying more AUMN now, but I want to wait until the S&P correction, whenever it comes...
Sure ain't hurting, 'bout time they formulate a plan of some sort? Does it sound overly optimistic, or copy/paste?
DeleteWonder if it's viewed as an opportunity to cut and run......
Natty - Let's see if they can get this sucker above $3.32 for more than a split second. Could open the door to some short covering. I have my doubts.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- great move into UGAZ yesterday!
ReplyDeleteDavid - Thanks man. To be fair I bought a big chunk at $19.5 last week so my average is around $19.2. Timing wasn't great but good enough! Hope you're still holding the KOLD puts.
DeleteYes, I am still holding my puts, and the last bunch of $26 puts I bought when KOLD was at $26 is actually in the green for me. :)
DeleteI would really like to see a further rally heading into the report tomorrow to get shorts squeezed. It could set the stage for a rally to $3.60. I just have my doubts they will do that though. I suspect they will hold it around $3.32 going into the report which makes it hard to hold a large position long or short. There are going to be some major fireworks soon.
DeleteVG - I'm in, $2.73 Wish me luck........
ReplyDeleteEver feel like maybe you're getting dumped on by analysts, do they know what they're talking about?
DeleteLVLT - +78% Upside price objective? 2/12/13 - BACML Price objective: $37.50, a +78% differential from today's price.
"Reiterate Buy rating $37.50 price objective
We reiterate our Buy rating and $37.50 price objective. Level 3 represents the
best risk/reward with the most company specific drivers in our alternative carrier
coverage universe. Our $37.50 price objective is based on a weighted average of
our Bear, Base and Bull case scenario analysis."
By the way, there is always the possibility that we just slowly work our way up to 1,700 much like the 1980 rally. If that happens I want to be in the momo stocks like TZOO which i think will make its way back up to $50. If they get that booking platform rolled out by Q3 and the market is up above 1,600, watch that sucker fly, pun intended.
ReplyDeleteSID the kid looks good if it can clear $5.50.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, would be good if it closes better than $5.33
DeleteRES - Up, up, and more up
ReplyDeleteEPD - Same thing, little different animal
Run Forest, run?
VG - Would someone please buy the entire 20k ask in one shot, so we can move?
CSCO - AH party?
ReplyDelete"Markets dropped on the Business Inventories news."
Robot - Bags nearly 100 pts on SPX so far....
ReplyDeleteGMO - Upside down cup?
ReplyDeleteSCTY - Sir, your solar panel is blocking my view.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Giraffe formation.
ReplyDeleteSNE @ 14.2x...
ReplyDeleteTZOO @ 21.2x...
UGAZ @ 19.5x...
I cashed in UGAZ. moron for not doing it when natty was at $3.32. I feel like it will provide us a chance to load more at $3.25 tomorrow. we shall see.
ReplyDeleteSold at $19.62, $19.54, $19.52. Mad a small chunk. I'm assuming it rips higher tomorrow!
DeleteUGAZ off @ 19.47. Moron for thinking about it.
DeleteBack in PACB at $2.32. Smaller position.
ReplyDeleteGV - This thing really sucks now that it's already moved 1000% off the bottom.
ReplyDeleteNSPN- Ut-oh.
ReplyDeleteThink anyone will hit my bid you all see?
DeleteCanceled...this might get really ugly. Slezak quite.
Delete"Slezak quit"...say what say what?
DeleteFourth quarter customer placements of 56 represents continued acceleration of new customer growth in the U.S. Nanosphere management, during the last quarterly conference call, provided guidance around the low end of the previously disclosed range of 60 to 80 placements for the fourth quarter of 2012. Disappointing demand in Europe resulted in total placements that were lower than expected for the quarter.
DeleteCosts and operating expenses were $38.0 million in 2012, remaining flat relative to 2011. Costs of sales increased from $1.8 million in 2011 to $3.5 million in 2012, driven by increased volume. Selling, general and administrative expenses in 2012 increased to $16.9 million from $16.2 million as field sales and customer support teams were expanded. Research and development expenses decreased from $20.0 million in 2011 to $17.6 million in 2012 as a result of a shift in resources from development to manufacturing and customer support as commercialization accelerated.
Net loss for 2012 was $32.9 million, compared with $35.4 million in 2011. Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2012 decreased to $7.6 million compared with $8.6 million for the same period in 2011 and $8.7 million in the third quarter of 2012.
Cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2012 was negative $8.8 million including $1.5 million of investments in inventory to support system placements. Full year 2012 cash flow from operations was negative $31.7 million, of which $4.8 million was driven by increases in inventory. Cash at December 31, 2012 was $33.1 million.
Nanosphere is evaluating debt facilities to help manage its working capital needs and is currently in discussions with debt providers.
Business Guidance
DeleteFor the fiscal year ending December 31, 2013, the Company expects to generate between $13 million and $15 million in product revenue and between 200 and 250 customer placements.
Nanosphere had previously provided guidance in the range of 80 to 100 placements for the first quarter of 2013. Slower than anticipated growth in international markets and the timing of projected regulatory approvals of the Company’s gram negative blood stream infection and its enteric pathogens panels make 45-55 placements more likely in the first quarter.
Here's all the details...
Deletehttp://boardvote.com/symbol/NSPH/communique/219121
Well, that's the second guy to bail in the past couple months.
DeleteFirst MLNX, then NSPH, incident rate seems high, which others were there? Where'd these ideas originate from in the first place, has a nefarious pumper infiltrated TT?
I'm the guilty part for NSPH! Yet another reason I don't believe in buy and hold...or "playing" earnings for that matter.
DeleteYou're forgiven if you found it on your own, not sure how you accomplished that. Else whoever suggested the idea needs close supervision?
DeleteZ - well that was just about a double in what...3 months? holy shit.
ReplyDeletestill combing through the YRCW details and waiting for the quarterly report to come out but I really like what I see. I've been buying in small chunks for the past couple of days at $6.7 avg. still lots of risks with this one but the trend is pretty clear IMO.
ReplyDeletethis is a total crap shoot but i thought long and hard about natty and my guess is this is what happens with Natty:
ReplyDeleteone more test of $3.24/3.25 overnight or around the report, then a rally to possibly as high as $3.45 and then a washout lower to fill the gap around $3.00..possibly slightly break the 200 DMA before it resumes its rally higher.
The lower lows just recently made me a lot more suspicious of this bottoming pattern. I'll probably be wrong but I don't think the $3.05/$3.10ish lows were the final lows.
CP - What were those two plastics/propane plays from the other day? I have a friend that wants exposure to the natty game somehow with a dividend play and i wanted to pass them on to him...
ReplyDeleteIn order of time horizon short to long:
DeletePDH/EPD/BERY
Maybe he can help with DD a little...... These have come so far, no room for mistakes, just like many others.
RES/RPIM - I like these companies that provide equipment and services as well, again, all have rallied....... damn!!!!!!!
PDH/BERY/EPD is proper time horizon, EPD bring on their additional conversion plant(s) over the next couple of years so more growth is the story(already pretty dang huge).
DeleteBAS - This one's out there in West Tx, on the Permian, might be worth mentioning.
DeletePRIM, not RPIM.....
DeleteWLL - Guys, tell me you've looked at this chart, so I can stop bringing up the subject, okay????????
ReplyDeleteI don't see much here. Tele liked it a while ago.
DeleteVG - No takers for the $2.75 ask in AH, perhaps maybe I bought a tad hastily....... gulp!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete