At the very least, no landscape for retiement portfolios.
I may be wrong, but gold/silver off another -2% can't be good for the market. Miners also selling off hard> GDX -3.64%, GDXJ -3.2% to a new 52-wk low.
I'm tired of scrolling down through 80+ comments to post.
I would say miners/gold selling off is acting as source of funds for stocks as fear comes out of the market. I would not see it as a market negative.
ReplyDeleteOkay, we'll try to keep the number of posts minimized. I'm more guilty than anyone.
ReplyDeleteYou won't hear a peep, chirp, chirp!
DeleteWhat I find amazing is over the last 5 days, the SPY low is 151.22 and the high is 152.61, a less than 1% variance.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what this kind of action signifies, but it sure is tight.
The market has to digest/consolidate the gains somehow, right?
DeleteEither it pulls back in and orderly way, it corrects hard, or it trades sideways and works it off in time. Kind of like those Darvis box moves.
I think dollar up is the negative, gold just moves inversely to $USD.
ReplyDeleteFor example USO is down a hair more than GLD.
Euro up is equities negative, no?
DeleteEuro is down (FXE) UUP up, stocks down.
DeleteYes, duh, Euro down is equities negative.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-15/war-not-worth-winning-as-g-20-debates-yen-intentions.html
ReplyDeleteThe market has to digest/consolidate the gains somehow, right?
ReplyDeleteEither it pulls back in and orderly way, it corrects hard, or it trades sideways and works it off in time. Kind of like those Darvis box moves.
>> I'm not a market technician, but wouldn't that generally be considered more of a continuation patter than a reversal pattern?
I would think sideways consolidation is positive.
DeleteSome chart-work from 61p8 re GDX ...
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130215-GDX.png
Interesting, right here looks like the place to bet on H&S failure. And media is circulating bearish stories? Hmm.... Not gonna jump in here, but seems kinda like a bear trap setup?
DeleteNUGT - watching for a 7.00 break. Not looking too promising at the moment. FWIW
DeleteSome inspirational videos for you guys today as I have nothing to do but monitor my two large positions now that I have moved them into buy and hold:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkNrSpqUr-E
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_426RiwST8
Pretty boring market huh?
ReplyDeleteThis is exactly as I see it. Take note of the lower trendline of the current bull move.
http://stocktwits.com/message/12093313
Downtown Josh Brown @ReformedBroker
ReplyDeleteBill Ackman sends Icahn free tickets for a Carnival Cruise, "no hard feelings"
Right now I have cash set aside to play in a few things that I'm waiting on entries for. You can be sure SNE is one of them. I was hoping we would see a spike down to the buy area but I think the buy area is just going to work its way up to the price...i.e., price trades sideways and then moves higher.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Nat Gas goes...it is still holding in higher lows...this is a bottoming process if the $3.05 area holds. My suspicion is it does hold even if it has one fakeout spike down.
ReplyDeleteSittin' here twiddling thumbs and listening to this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=lVZD9CZ623M
If you like The Dead this is one of the best shows I think I've heard/seen besides in person. Rare form...
It's a Beautiful Day:
DeleteWhite Bird
In a golden cage
On a winter's day
In the rain
White bird
In a golden cage
Alone
"White Bird"
DeleteYou promised, no peep, chirp, chirp....
White bird must fly, or she will die...
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrFCwvlw0cs
Yes, truly one of the greatest songs from the Sixties.
DeleteTime for a liberal application of the slippery pickle...
ReplyDeletePMT - Ex-div Tuesday the 19st, so I believe I collect the div by buying today. Share price will open lower Tuesday by the div amount.
ReplyDeleteVIX makes a multi-year low today. Time to get VXX if you don't have it yet...
ReplyDeleteUNL *still* has not broken its sequence of higher lows. If we believe in that sequence, then now is a great time to buy. So I just bought 2 August 30 KOLD puts at $6.20...
ReplyDeleteCC - Thanks for posting that Dead link. Been rocking out to it for past hour.
ReplyDeleteURA - $6.94 was the entry. My faith in nucular, however, remains shaken, not stirred.
ReplyDeleteSCO - Lookin' better, huh?
ReplyDeleteIt's days like this I thank god I actually have a job to go to.
ReplyDeleteAnyone preparing to buy the miners for a dead cat bounce?
ReplyDeleteAbout a year ago we talked about how underinvested pension funds are in the stock market and overinvested they are in bonds. At what point here do you think they start getting antsy about their positions? This thought keeps creeping up in my head and makes me wonder if 1,700 isn't our next destination with only minor pullbacks along the way. In that scenario, wouldn't it be possible that the most economically sensitive stocks do best? And that momo stocks with low float and good balance sheets go on massive runs? And that things tied to rising rates do well? I know this has been mentioned a million times but how many big money managers are truly invested in this manner? I'd say a small fraction. When you think about the market on a longer time frame, this kind of reminds me of the exact opposite of 2008. I remember hearing so many bearish people on TV and in blogs and thinking what the fuck...everyone is on the same page that we're going into a recession. Either its gonna be worse than people think or we won't have a bad one. What if the same thing happens here except with housing rebounding it causes earnings to rise to 110 per share and the market trades at 16 times earnings? Just a thought and it's not a unique one. I'm pretty sure most people that run big institutional accounts are contemplating this scenario actually playing out.
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking about what that broker told me at the super bowl party we went to: that housing has completely turned in San Diego in the past 6 to 12 months and that it is a sellers market. That many listings are getting 10 to 15 bids on them. We're thinking about buying a house and of the list of 8 houses we put together that we saw on Zillow on Sunday, 2 of them have already been sold. I know it's just here in SD but this has to be going on in other parts of the country.
Delete"makes me wonder if 1,700 isn't our next destination"
DeleteYep, honestly, I'm a little surprised we're not higher than we currently are, I can only guess TPTB don't want to be too obvious and they have to scare everyone at least a little, everyday.
Miners
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by yh (5 comments) on Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:22 #117459
Gold up, miners down. Gold down, miners down big. Stocks up, miners flat. Stocks down miners down big.
I have always considered myself as a long term investor. I'm in the miners since 2004/2005, and started small, but pretty much all the subsequent buys are all under water. There are articles on currency wars and gold manipulations everywhere, but the fact is that miners are going down pretty much every week.
I regret I ever bought any of the junior stocks, most of down 80% if not more. The major miners are clipped by 30% to 50% from the last peak. Like another commenter here, I probably would never buy any miners or precious metals again. I don't know who are selling, but prices just continue to go down. I really thought that the worst is behind after 2008/2009, but if you look at juniors, they can easily be worse than 2008/2009.
I start to wonder that there is something fundamentally wrong with the entire mining industry. I almost want to call it un-investable. Everytime just when I thought the sentiment of myself or others has hit a new bottom, a few weeks later, another new low in my sentiment strikes again. It's kind of bottomless.
Two words: Stop Limit.
DeleteThe mining industry is not uninvestible. It's just had a huge bull market. I think you have to think of it like the Nasdaq after the tech run. You had multi-year winners like MSFT, CSCO, etc. that rocked it for 20 years, then did nothing the last 13. Mining is similar.
DeleteLook at the long term chart for a winner like GG - still up more than 10-fold since 2000. It's your MSFT.
Then think about all the junior tech stocks that had huge runs in the late 1990's. Those are like your junior miners.
So, now you have to either stay away for the bull aura to completely fade or pick the right mining stock (like the mining version of AAPL).
Gold has gone from $250 to $1,600, copper from sub-$1.00 to $3.75, etc. All of these metals are still high in price and you either need prices to fade or economic fundamentals to catch up, both which will take a lot of time.
You need the same F_ _ _ k it sentiment of late 2000 tech stocks, which it sounds like is almost there. When 2nd is saying F it they are uninvestable, it's time to start thinking about who will be buying, because the bottom is near.
DeleteThe problem is, we no longer have the Shark indicator. That worked everytime.
Think about it. If you think this is going to be a rip roaring bull market in equities and you have an asset that has gone up 500-600%, you sell it as a source of funds to invest in something that will now go up faster. The miners? They get trapped on the Titanic.
DeleteI do not think 2nd said that, this guy did,
DeleteSubmitted by yh (5 comments) on Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:22 #117459
I think 2nd just posted this guys post and is trying to play off of negative sentiment for a bounce.
---- it. Opeing RYPMX in about 5 minutes.
ReplyDeleteSomebody is buying into this close....
ReplyDeleteHopefully, my wings weren't clipped......
ReplyDeleteFolks, for those of you who have free cash lying around -- why now short KOLD here? NG futures are not far from all-time lows. Looking out 1-2 years ahead, things will probably be brighter for NG. Even if futures stay flat over these 1-2 years, then KOLD will decline big time as a result of its volatility decay. So why not short KOLD here?
ReplyDeleteVolatility decay is a given! ;)
DeleteDid you guys catch the on line video of the asteroid?
ReplyDelete"Tonight will see Asteroid 2012DA14 brush past our planet at a mere distance of 17200 miles, closer than some of our orbiting satellites."
Nobody rules these streets at night like me, nobody, ah, The atomic punk!
Gold in backwardation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-15/gold-leaps-backwardation
Usually it is really hard to get a fill when trying to short the Ultra-products - have you been able to do this for KOLD with no issues David?
ReplyDeleteI've never been able to.
DeleteShoot. I stopped by CC for a drink but no one was there except this old bartender mumbling something about going for some drunken run...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteMUX - Kinda looks like someone was buying today.
ReplyDelete