2/19/13 The Coming Storm

By now, we all know the economy has turned the corner, and fears of a recession are overblown.  I read something along those lines every day.

Bullshit!

My company (which survived the last recession more or less unscathed) recently laid off a number of employees.  Another company I represent (on a part time basis) will be trimming the rates we charge for professional staffing services > the tables have turned in a business where we'd held the upper hand for over twenty years.  Due to connections I have in the second job, I have occasionally referred people (recent graduates, friends, friends of friends) to hiring managers, and had a pretty good batting average.  Not anymore.  The neighbor who formerly worked as an IT project manager for a major lender?  Dude's been out of work for almost five years.  My youngest sibling in San Diego, the radiologist- you wouldn't think he'd be worried.  He's worried.  My oldest son has a part time job in a sector that's been hiring- they stopped hiring last month.  In fact, one of his best friends (whom he'd successfully referred to the company last fall), was laid off two weeks ago.

The real estate market appears to be turning up.  In fact, the percentage of cash purchases reached an all-time high in the Bay Area last quarter (according to a KCBS interview with a local analyst).  According to a realtor I stay in touch with, 'It is a big sign of recovery and the cash is coming from all over. Foreign and local. This week alone there are a lot of cash buyers from Mainland China.'  What troubles me is that cash is required to close.  What percentage of the population can afford to pay cash?

Sure, the stock market is on cruise control.  But you know how I feel about that.