Tuesday, February 5, 2013
2/5/13 Get Shorty
We've now have the first major pullback in 2013. It's too easy to think we move straight down. So the higher-odds scenario would be a return to new highs (fueled by performance-chasing and short-covering) in the next week or two-> once the shorts have departed (and a new crop of sidelined investors is on board), the market is then free to decline.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Got Random Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteThe Ps lost all of Friday's gains and then some, closing down over 1%. This action gives up over one week's worth of progress. The Quack was hit even harder. It lost just over 1 1/2 %.
So far, the market basis the Ps, only appears to be pulling back. As I've been preaching though, I'd really like to see the pullback occur from much higher levels. If it dips below its prior breakout levels, then it would suggest a false breakout. This would put a lot of pressure on the Johnny come latleys. These players are the last in and the first out. Again though, so far, the Ps only appear to be pulling back. As usual, take things one day a time.
At this juncture, I'm more concerned about the Quack. Monday's action has it stalling short of its prior highs. So, it hasn't even broken out yet. See the weekly chart above.
So far, most sectors remain in uptrends and only appear to be pulling back.
So what do we do? Make sure you wait for entries in light of this weakness. And, as usual, honor your stops on existing longs. On new positions, I still like the more speculative issues that can trade independently of the market while the market finds its way (see newsletter archives for more on this). And, once again, on the short side, I still like the big cap stocks that have lost steam in spite of the overall market generally heading higher.
Best of luck with your trading today!
NIHD, blink and you miss
ReplyDeleteOne must only guess correctly in advance if he doesn't already know for sure. Insiders added 75% to their position?
DeleteCrazy, someone ran stops?
Delete1505 - Is resistance now.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.king5.com/news/marijuana/Pot-lobby-is-growing-in-Olympia-189754531.html
ReplyDeletehttp://www.king5.com/news/marijuana/Congress-working-quietly-to-change-US-marijuana-laws-189700541.html?ref=next
ReplyDeleteGold - Looked like it was headed higher, guess not...
ReplyDeleteGuessing bears will work to keep 1505 from happening.
Gold will ---- with your mind more than any other sector.
DeleteRed now, sheesh! Always sell into strength.
DeleteNIHD totally wild
ReplyDeleteWoke up late and that was the first thing I saw.
DeleteBIDU drops on earnings
DeleteOn the other hand, one normally sees these very early lows retested the same day.
DeleteAlmost bought SD yesterday. Looks like a dead issue until Ward get's Mcclendoned.
SD - "disappointing results from the SandRidge Mississippian Trusts"
DeleteJPM downgrade too.
DeleteJP wanted in at lower price, eh? Follow JP.
DeleteJust like being guillotined, hope is strongest up until the instant the blade is released.
ReplyDeleteHLF- Are the distributors now buying all the shares too?
ReplyDeleteThey're buying MJNA
DeleteDo you do this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/02/04/the-constant-correction-call/
No, but I can sing the same tune over and over and over.
DeleteOh, broken clock eh?
DeleteAre you like me, get a tune stuck in your head and can't get it out until another one replaces it?
I certainly try.
Delete"get it out until another one replaces it?"
DeleteExactly, "Who's sorry now" has been playing all this year.
Mine is "back in the high life". Go figure, it was on the radio....
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=308ypoKd4Dg
DeleteSPX - Covered half of yesterday's candle, but have we stalled? RSI(7) daily transitioned through 70 and MACD has rolled over?
ReplyDeleteWho's buying now???
HEK - H&S on one year chart, positive sloped neckline. Which way does it go?
ReplyDeleteYUM - So can we assume Chinese chicken sales are greater than 4% of the bottom line?
ReplyDeleteThere is no way AUMN does not print a new 52-wk low today.
ReplyDeleteAnd there it is.
DeleteWill it be safe to buy under $2, assuming it happens? I was waiting for an entry under $3 but it's pulling an TC(Thompson Creek) style move. TC dropped much further than anyone thought possible and now has nearly doubled off it's low.
DeleteHow long can AUMN operate before having to return to dilution? Management should take a temporary pay cut if they can't get production up and running.
DeleteWhy is it stocks always seem to print their low right around 10:30am?
ReplyDeleteI probably could've made a ton of money by now if I'd been buying at this time with a tight stop and flipped those shares few hours later.
Been picking up BIDU between $95.4 and $96. I'm only looking to trade this and will use the lows of today to stop myself out. With my purchase last night at $101 I'm in at around $97.
ReplyDeleteI agree with 2nd about the setup for the markets and that is why I'm only stick with the biggest stocks that have been crushed.
As always, 2nd_ave was right on the money when he suggested that I sell my TVIX yesterday and repurchase it today...
ReplyDeleteSpeaking about TC -- it came on my radar yesterday. I'll do more research about it in the next few days, but its chart looks amazing. Once it rises above $4.50, it will give an all-clear buy signal, and I plan to buy a lot of 1-year calls on it at that point.
ReplyDeleteJust a guess but TC's days are limited as GMO approaches production? GMO should need more financing I think, in order to move toward actual production, and there are a number of ways that can be accomplished, long and short routes.
DeleteI wanna buy a pullback in GMO, as opposed to TC. GMO is a well run company with a huge pile of high grade Mo discovered originally by Chevron and well documented, even the water requirements were calculated by Chevron and are being used(double and quadruple checked) as a guideline. GMO will have a roaster on site, which is a big deal in terms of cost advantage. Functioning roasters are rare as hen's teeth thus ore is typically shipped to China which is more expensive. Natty for roasting is cheaper in US than anywhere now. I don't think TC management is nearly as competent as GMO management.
Time will tell, huh?
S&P is basically up to previous highs, but volatility futures are noticeably higher than they were at previous highs. I've seen this at previous tops, where volatility stops going down and actually starts rising as the market makes the last few marginal highs. If S&P rises above 1525 in a straight line from here, I'll start scaling into S&P puts.
ReplyDeleteMJNA @ 0.3824...
ReplyDeleteAdded @ 0.34...
DeleteBad move.
DeleteThat sure felt like a TKO.
DeleteAccording to one of those advisory trading wires, support is .34 and if it breaches .34 it could go to touch .15.
DeleteI stopped out at .41.
The entire group is correcting today. It has done it a few times and then runs to new highs.
I'm diversified with a few small positions. MJNA corrects and MDBX holds. XCHC is hanging in there. I think because the market expects it will be easier for congress to approve growing hemp and Mitch McConnell wants it grown in Kentucky.
Look at the number of knock-outs and recoveries it has made in the last three days. It can be quite volatile so I wouldn't worry too much.
Deletetypically those penny stocks will drop 65% to 75% within a couple days from their highs on panic selling. that is a good spot to enter for a trade. they usually come close to retesting those panic lows shortly thereafter which provides another good entry point.
DeleteI like 0.17, the 34ema on daily, down to 0.11 on weekly. Weekly ema13 is 0.16, so maybe this is the good support extreme panic buying area.
DeleteAdded more BIDU at $95.4. Considering moving into it with a 100% position. The valuation is extremely cheap here and I think it is getting punished for the same exact reasons that GOOG got punished over the past 2 years down at $500 or so: "too much" spending. This company has an extremely wide moat and should be trading at 40 times earnings because of that moat, not 18 times.
ReplyDeleteMWW looks tempting to me.
Deletei question how they will be able to compete with LNKD.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteMaybe FB needs MWW appliance to compete with LNKD?
DeleteSCTY - GS initiated coverage again last week, "buy".
ReplyDeleteThus it goes nowhere as GS distributes.
i'm the sh*thead that got scared by a GS upgrade to SNE and sold at $11.20ish. i'm more interested in what they're downgrading at multi year lows.
DeleteYou were faked out by GS upgrade, they come in vanilla and chocolate flavor.
DeleteWhat an unintended rush. Opened 10,000 shares of MJNA @ 38.24. Meant to add another 10,000 @ 0.34. Instead, I added 100,000 shares. Watched the sucker tank to 0.26. Let the entire 110,000 go just now at 0.34x... Made a profit. wtf.
ReplyDeleteI feel like tof.
DeleteHoly shiite...look at it now. What is that? A $110 per penny?
DeleteWait, that would be 1100 per penny...are you crazy?
DeleteMaloTOF cocktail with dynamite chaser! ;)
DeleteI know what you're thinking. I couldn't hold out for another 0.02? Hey, it took all the Buddhist serenity I could muster just to hang on 'til 0.34x.
DeleteI 'caught' the error a millisecond prior to execution. However, when I clicked to 'Cancel,' the Fido platform logged off due to the timing out of another program. wtf. So I was stuck. No ----, bro-> that was a crazy trade any way you look at it.
DeleteCrap, that's even got me feeling a little squirrelly, like extreme acrophobia.
DeleteWell.....deep breathing, count to twenty...I'm glad you made it.
DeleteI kept thinking about the other side of the trade. 'What if I were trying to OPEN a position?' They would likely continue to gap up the price to disallow that. That kept me grounded.
DeleteCan't become a great pilot without a few emergency landings, right?
Deletehttp://masoncountydailynews.com/news/news-page/49213-effort-building-to-change-us-pot-laws
DeleteAnother successful touch and go.....
DeleteAnd I don't mean 'simulated' emergency exercises where you prep ahead of time.
DeleteWe're gonna have to rename you Capt. R.C. "Second" Sullenberger
DeleteCapt. R.C. "Thirty Second Long" Sullenberger!
DeleteOK, I'm going to relax by picking up a little PACB ahead of earnings.
ReplyDeleteseriously? that stock keeps coming up on screens I do.
DeleteLOL!!!!!
DeleteI told you 2nd.....
Based on the little I've read, the CEO + CFO both recently took pay cuts down to base salaries of $1. Which makes the purchase of several hundred thousand shares of company stock by the CEO last quarter even more compelling.
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1072391-these-innovative-biotech-stocks-are-beginning-to-build-momentum
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=PACB+Insider+Transactions
TOF, 2nd asked me about the Landry service and I told him a lot of the stocks that come up on his screens are the same as you, Jesse and sometimes CP find. (CP is looking at URA).
DeleteSo this is pretty funny. Nice pick. I want it to go higher first, but it's a good one.
Yep, could be a good one.
Delete2nd, how'd you locate to this ticker?
CP, read my 11:14 post.
DeleteI won't ask 2nd..... I like the product this company has developed, nice find. Want to see earnings response.
DeleteNow we're closer to the recent top, here's where I'd consider collecting longs as opposed to at yesterday's low.
ReplyDeleteFully anticipate bears will make a stand here in attempt to force a lower high, but will they succeed?
Collecting shorts, of course.
DeleteYou know, the intraday price action in MJNA is exactly what the broader indexes are about to experience over the next 3 months.
ReplyDeleteWhich may be the 'karmic' explanation for today's experience.
DeleteAre you looking for more emergency landing practice? So what happens, does a flock of DC geese fly into our Rolls Royce turbines?
DeleteSPX -> 1550 -> stalls @ 1400-> dives to 1225-> lifts to 1500.
DeleteSPXS - nobody????
ReplyDeleteSPXS - Bidding on this one @ $13.85, a small position. Might chicken out and pull the bid...
ReplyDeleteDMND continues to put in a series of bull flags...and the drop below 14.00 was a classic trap today. let's see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteBIDU liftoff into the close? RSI_EMA continues to build. if it happens I'll cut bait probably.
ReplyDeleteStop limit $96.10
DeleteURA - Remains flat, jury is still out.
ReplyDeleteDuke to close nuclear plant in Fla.
My ears just popped again, SPXS canceled.
ReplyDeleteBoneless Chicken.....
AEIS - Passed the test, let the sun shine on the balance sheet.
ReplyDeleteClosed BIDU at $96.43 for small loss. Ugh
ReplyDeleteUGAZ was the play today. You know, the play no one was tracking.
ReplyDeletei was tracking it...was thinking the market would run to new highs and nat gas would tank to 3.20. oh well.
DeleteThere was some news out pushing it. I saw some on Bloomberg and looked it over before UNG got to 19, but thought the same. market was pushing higher and NG usually runs contra.
DeleteMJNA appears headed for a 2-handle close. Max pain would be to undercut the earlier intraday low.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who opened earlier in the day and is still waiting for a closing pop will be under extreme pressure to sell to avoid a long, long night.
DeleteEither way, MJNA will set another record for daily trading volume.
DeleteI can wait....
DeleteDemand for MJNA alive and well into the close.
Deletelong TZA 10.87. starter position. plan on adding if we go higher.
ReplyDeletei pared back my DMND position all day today as I'm gearing up for a pullback in the markets.
Deletelook how similar the market is trading now vs feb 1980...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=%5Egspc;range=19790416,19800508;compare=;indicator=volume+macd+rsi;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
i picked up 20k of PACB over the past hour at 2.37. like the insider buying, the chart, and the fact that they killed off their salaries to save money...all good signs in my opinion.
ReplyDeletePACB>
ReplyDeleteRevenue for the fourth quarter of 2012 totaled $5.9 million compared to revenue of $2.8 million for the third quarter of 2012. Net loss for the quarter was $21.7 million compared to the $22.7 million net loss during the third quarter of 2012.
Compared to expectations of Q4 revenue $4.38 million, and net loss of about -$20.6 million.
DeleteReported revenue beat even the highest estimate of $5.05 million.
ReplyDeleteI would say, 'What's not to like?' If this was AMZN, we would be off to the races.
Deletethis is going to get bought out. if you look at the ILMN buyout rejection and then Roche's CEO's subsequent comments about how there are other companies out there that do what they do, it makes sense. throw in $100 million in cash, no debt, heavy insider buying and salary cuts (ie insider conviction) and a revenue run rate of $20-$30 million...it just makes sense for Roche to buy them. even if they don't that chart is a thing of beauty.
DeleteIF it traded AH it would.....maybe tomorrow.
DeleteIt doesn't trade AH?
DeleteHmmm....it wasn't earlier for my platform, but it just did, although my order didn't fill all the way. What did fill was at 2.38. The B/A was 2.36/2.41, now it's 2.41/2.75.
Delete2.75 would be nice....
Up $0.03 in AH, just a mirage......
DeleteWhy doesn't Roche just develop their own system, I can imagine the possibility of needing to acquire IP in the case someone owns a key patent but other than that they probably have an automation design team that could cobble together a robust hardware platform.
DeleteSpeaking of hardware design, I bet there are even companies out there Roche could contract with to develop their platform. Why not take a walk upstream and camp out with one of these companies shareholders?
Automation, automation, automation seem to be the underlying theme, in addition to key IP.
BRKR - The spectrometer guys are hanging out down on the corner, might need to keep an eye on them?
PACB - $500,000 facility fee - Easy money for handling an escrow transaction, who collects that, I want their ticker!
ReplyDelete8.75% doesn't seem cheap in this environment, but good news they can at least secure financing?
I mistakenly thought earlier this was genetics software company for some reason..... Everyone offers a platform for genetic testing now, it seems. Kinda like gold and silver miners vacuumed up shareholder capital on high hopes of infinitely higher PM prices?
My thinking is this: most bull markets or bull stocks that go up a lot have wild drops to clear as many people off of them as they can before resuming higher. I believe we are ultimately going to 1,700 within the next 12 months. So if you're a longer term investor then you can stay the course. The major themes we keyed in on aren't going away:
ReplyDeleteJapan, Nat Gas, Europe, Greece, Solars, etc.
So I'm looking at any potential pullback as a buying opportunity. You can play that by trying to game a drop or by waiting for a drop and buying your favorite stocks in those sectors above. Take a look at BBRY's recent drop and rebound. It dropped right to the 10 week EMA and bounced HARD. SNE is going to do that and get a lot of people out of it. NIHD did that today. ANR is doing that yet again.
For example, look at the drops that the following have had…yet they will continue to go higher:
FSLR - $26 down to $18 in 4 days; $35 to $27 in 3 weeks…yet it has still continued higher
NOK – dropped from $3.3 to $2.2 in 7 days but then went 100% higher
WFR – dropped from $2.7 to $1.7 in 3 weeks then went 150% higher
Italy and Spanish markets just dropped 8% in 1 week, yet they will go higher
GREK (Greece) dropped 23% in 2.5 weeks then went 33% higher over 2.5 months.
I'm just watching those weekly moving averages so I can get long again. The ones I'm looking at closely right now are NBG and SID
REDF exhibited stellar results, on the list?
Deletenot quite but i do see an inverse H&S on the weekly chart. we all know it has the potential to really crank higher with any good news.
DeleteDIS - Seems like a decent initial response.
ReplyDeletePACB- Wow, pretty similar financially to NSPH. Both have about the same burn rate with a year left in cash. NSPH probably will announce a debit package of about 20M this Q. Let's see how it reacts tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNSPH seems to be priced at a premium in comparison to PACB, perhaps well justified or artificial?
DeleteYeah, to sales, but it's all who makes it to BE first, right?
DeleteYeah, I wish I understood the differences in their diagnostic portfolios. I'd like for NSPH to offer an urine analysis capability.
DeleteAGO won $90 million of the $116 million they were after from Flagstar on $900 million in loans.
ReplyDeleteI would assume that should make for a good day tomorrow, but you never really know how people have positioned themselves around events like this.
It is only $90 million on a $3.5 billion market cap, but this is just the beginning. Similar lawsuits by insurers including Assured, MBIA Inc.(MBI.N) and Ambac Financial Group Inc(ABKFQ.PK) are pending against banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co(JPM.N), Credit Suisse Group AG(CSGN.VX) and Bank of America Corp's(BAC.N) Countrywide Financial unit.
PPMIQ - +128% today!
DeleteWhat happenned? I see no news and the AGO announcement was after market close.
DeletePPMIQ - Traded to $0.12 is 1year Target est. really $3.50 ???????
DeleteI thought this one was dead, but if these MBS lawsuits are prosecuted in favor of plaintiffs then there should be some very interesting moves in store?
"What happenned?"
DeleteIf you're referring to AGO, they had some MBS's in their portfolio but not enuff to sink them completely when the SHTF.
Oh but they aren't the only ones who found themselves in that situation.
In the case of PPMIQ it's unclear if today's large investor interest story or the possibility of MBS lawsuit activity caused the move. PMI filed BK, so maybe any common shareholder wealth is permanently gone, IDK?
MTG only moved +2% today, so maybe PMI's move wasn't related to recent progress prosecuting MBS fraud?
DeleteVMW is setting up for something. What that might be I have no clue.
ReplyDeleteGood question, doesn't JB follow/comprehend this space?
DeleteS&P Committed fraud? They mislead habitually thus it's not fraud, it's simply business as usual?
ReplyDeletelook how similar the market is trading now vs feb 1980...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=%5Egspc;range=19790416,19800508;compare=;indicator=volume+macd+rsi;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
>> Wouldn't surprise me to see a chart like this in 2012. I could make the case though that the peak in 1980 was 7% over the previous peak, whereas now we are only 3% over the previous peak, so we've still got a lot of time to run. Of course I'm saying this because I think we ramp up slowly for the next couple of months before a correction into summer, and this approach fits my scenario better!
Yes, I'm confused now (in my own mind) if the peak occurs during Feb or Mar., could be we take a rest into end of Mar. before the last leg up?
DeleteIt's really foggy, the picture in my head.
Burning down the house...
ReplyDeleteSo the government is going after S&P. What do you want to bet they blame the whole thing on a few analysts, throw them under the bus and weasel out of it?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/sp-analyst-cdos-are-burning-down-the-house/
Well yeah of course, the real men responsible probably won't even take pay cuts. $5B is nowhere near sufficient compensation for the damage caused by their intentional "oversight", IMO!
DeleteJust finished listening to the PACB conference call webcast. No red flags whatsoever. I get the impression of a straightforward and hard-working management team with a superior product undergoing refinement and improvement on pretty much a quarterly basis.
ReplyDeleteDid they say when they would reach BE?
DeleteThanks for sharing that.
DeleteIMH - I don't know anything about this company, but how do you like the chart?
ReplyDeleteToday PACB conclusively broke below its January 24th low of $2.42 and shook out some weak hands. If it rebounds above $2.42 tomorrow, then quick buyers of PACB would potentially join the black box algos that are preparing to take the stock to new highs, now that very few humans are onboard. I'll buying PACB tomorrow when I wake up, if I see it above $2.42...
ReplyDeleteThanks for your opinion on PACB, 2nd_ave!
mark - PACB and NSPH are kind of similar huh. i think PACB is more about genetic sequencing versus blood tests but its the same biz model: machine sales + recurring revs on consumables. PACB has significantly better revs and a much higher net cash balance relative to market cap.
ReplyDelete3 things got me on this one:
*insider buying (similar to NSPH)
*forgoing salaries
*chart - lower risk entry on this pullback near the 10 wk EMA. pullback was on much lower vol. this breakout looks different than the one from this time last year. if it can clear $3.25 then it's looking really good. that would be a solid move from here as it is. in hindsight i should have purchased a bigger position...love the fact that they dropped it hard into earnings.
this sucker came up on my screens for the past week or so but i kept ignoring it for whatever reason. thanks 2nd for bringing it back up. we shall see how it plays out tomorrow.
PACB chart reminds me of NSPH chart just as the 1st leg up began in June.
Deleteanother bio on my watch list that has been really good is ALQA. it's tiny.
ReplyDeletein fact here is my entire watch list right now; most of these i'm either waiting for a pullback to the 10 wk EMA or waiting for a break above it as a buy signal:
ReplyDeleteTZOO - 10wk EMA @ 20.19
SNE - 10wk EMA @ 20.19
NBG - wait for move above 10 wk EMA
SID - buy right now
NIHD - very volatile but chart is very similar to ANR last fall
Nat Gas / UGAZ
ANR
X - lower conviction
AKS- lower conviction
ACH - buy right now but too low risk for me
IRE - 10 wk EMA $7.82
PGH - bottoming tail hammer on weekly; if nat gas runs to $9 this will be back at old highs with 10% dividend
EDMC - educ stock; out of favor sector
COCO - educ stock; out of favor sector but profitable
WBMD
NOK - buy right now
WFR - wait for pullback to 10wk EMA
ZNGA - huge cash balance
PLCM - great new product
MMYT - valuation is too expensive
VE
JMBA - wait for pullback to $2.2
VG - p/fcf is around 6
Speculative:
EOX - huge rev growth
AEZS
BEBE
DHT - low risk entry right now
PACB - huge cash balance; bio play; no FDA approval risk; heavy insider buying
SVNT - wait for move above 10 wk EMA on vol
REDF - wait for move above 10 wk EMA on vol
JVA
STXS
CBMX
TRGT- huge cash balance; bio play; huge Fidelity Biosciences stake and Eddie Lampert stake; Fidelity is bankrolling a private company Envivo who's drug shares same exact mechanism for treating Alzheimers
XUE - China educ stock mentioned positively by Muddy Waters; starting paying 16% div last year; huge cash balance and high growth
ISS - mini CTSH of China; big partnership with Huawei
NQ - lots of growth; old name from 2012; good entry point
PAM
APPY
ALQA
AMBS- looks good right now but wait for test of $0.06 recent crash low
PGRX - BlackRock, Jim Dietz (COO of Potash), Ted Waitt, Apollo Mgmt all on board/investors
CAK - looks good right now
ENZ - looks good right now
GTIM
NVTL
CLNT
GMXR - POS stock but putting in higher lows since October; if nat gas goes up big this will skyrocket.
Question bro. You've said PACB's 'huge cash balance' when I see it as they run out of cash in a year or less. Why are we seeing this so different?
Deleteyeah they have $120 million cash (after the $20 million deal today)...relative to current mkt cap its much higher than NSPH. but i agree burn rate is about good for 5 quarters barring massive spikes in revs. really the lynchpin in this for a short/intermediate trade is the conviction of insiders...sprinkle in a little euphoria surrounding the whole failed ILMN buyout by Roche and subsequent comments about there being other plays out there that offer the same thing and i think there are catalysts in place for a move to $5.
Delete"HAHA! YOU ARE SUCH A SUCKER!! I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU WASTED 10 MINUTES READING THE PRECEDING POSTS!
DeleteALL OF THIS B.S. COMMENTARY HAS NO BEARING ON YOUR INVESTMENT SUCCESS.
BECAUSE...
INVESTMENT....
SUCCESS....
IS 100% ALL ABOUT THE CHARTS!" You know who sez that....right? (<:
Cash balance, market cap, blah, blah blah.... The Fing chart is it, period. If it breaks $3 it will go to the pt of $4. If it takes off, get a full position and sell half at $4 and let it ride. If it goes to $5 and beyond great! None of that other stuff matters to me.
Ha, so "Roche" just bought PACB for $20M, all they have to do is wait till PACB runs outta cash and then bang, they own them?
Delete"The Fing chart is it, period."
DeleteRight, take MLNX as an example.
MJNA - Of course the move in this one had nothing to do with legalization.
DeleteMore like the news timing is designed for those in the know to dump their positions onto retail. For all I know, PACB is just another P&D.
I didn't ever look at MLNX.
DeleteMJNA: explain today's correction with fundamentals or news.
Legalization made me look at the chart. Quite a few actually. The chart/price action and volume made me buy it. And a few others.
The chart/price today made me sell it. I suspect at some point the chart/price will make me buy it again. I don't know anything about it fundamentally. I sorta know what they do and I know they made a lot of money, or at least they said they did. I think this is the bottom floor of what will be big business. They say $3 billion in my state alone. That may be conservative. I know our idiot politicians are doing all they can to get tax revenue from it. Hopefully they promote it or at least stay out of the way and don't kill it. I may be optimistic. None of that matters if the price doesn't go from lower left to upper right. Period.
PACB: is on the service list because of the chart pattern. Nobody put it there because of anything but the chart pattern. Period. No story, no fundamentals, no bs. We could get all esoteric on what the chart pattern represents psychologically, but the pattern is good enough.
Now let's see if it plays out.
Good God. I just looked at the MLNX chart. Draw your arrow. It could be a basing chart if it moves up, but technically no thank you. Not yet. That is not to say never, just not yet.
DeleteCP....everything is P&D to some degree. Some happen faster than others, or travel up or down further, but all stocks are P&D.
DeleteCC - i hear ya but let's not be naive enough to forget about catalysts. its the reason why we bail on Nokia in early Sept because of the sell the news event coming out with the Windows 8 launch. It's the reason why SNE is higher now than ANR, relatively speaking, since Dec 2012. charts matter but knowing the fundamentals of the business can steer you clear of mine fields.
DeleteI just don't know what those are. I buy a service that is based on charts. I don't know about catalysts or fundamentals. Most of the time I don't pay too much attention to volume. I couldn't help but see it with MJNA but for the most part it isn't on my charts, it's part of my watchlist. Avg daily volume and volume. I use simple bar charts with a few ma's and rsi. That's it. No candles, no macd, no other indicators. Pretty much everything is price.
DeleteI remember a good example. Not long ago I mentioned RSH. Radioshack.
Mark said he didn't know how they stayed in business. Who cares? Look at the chart now.
What is the catalyst? I don't know and I don't care. Does it have fundamentals? I honestly can't tell you. But you can't deny the chart. To be honest, every time I get into one of those story stocks I lose money. Every time. If it works for you I'm good with it, but PACB is a chart to me.
holy shit...nikkei up 33% since Nov 2012.
ReplyDeleteHEK - No interest here, huh?
ReplyDeleteJesse's comments on NG prompted me to look at the UNL chart, and I saw a steady series of higher lows since THE low on April 2012. Furthermore, UNL seems to be close to the bottom trend line now, implying that now is a good time to buy. So I have just placed a buy limit order for 5 contracts of Aug $24 puts on KOLD at $4, so as to profit from the volatility decay of the ultrashort in case the NG forward curve stays unchanged for the next 6 months.
ReplyDeleteGreat artcile from 2010 with the usual suspects (Hussman, Schiff, Russell, etc) calling for the collapse of the world:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.morningliberty.com/2010/05/16/economic-collapse-martial-law-24-experts-warn-of-2010-meltdown/
I'm sure they'll tell you they weren't wrong, just early.
new post
ReplyDeleteAGO - Quite green in pre-market.
ReplyDelete