Wednesday, February 6, 2013

2/6/13 Smoke Grenades

Had I not been distracted by moves in the broader market, and yes- one stun grenade (MJNA) as well, I may have noticed the stealth move in NGas.

101 comments:

  1. Reposting BB's latest:

    BB CanadaFebruary 6, 2013 at 5:55 AM
    Great artcile from 2010 with the usual suspects (Hussman, Schiff, Russell, etc) calling for the collapse of the world:

    http://www.morningliberty.com/2010/05/16/economic-collapse-martial-law-24-experts-warn-of-2010-meltdown/

    I'm sure they'll tell you they weren't wrong, just early.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not that I ever listen to these asshats, but someone is about to....
    Maybe put pundit watcher in your faves for laughs.
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/pundit-tracker/

    ReplyDelete
  3. AGO - Nice response, obviously yesterday they tried to knock weak hands loose.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Adding to my ARR position, wonder when the bubble will burst?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Was that you stepping in @ 5.73?

      Delete
    2. I wish, my ave is now around $7. all I care about is that this bitch stays afloat long enough for me to reap some divi's!

      Delete
  5. PACB- You'd think it'd move a little!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yes, it's really worth the bucks...

    http://www.bevmo.com/Shop/ProductDetail.aspx?utm_source=cm&Ns=SalesPrice|1&utm_campaign=20130206CA&area=Spirits&utm_medium=email&Fulfillment=2|99&utm_content=Spirits&N=40+4294967184&ProductID=35902&No=30&cs=clubbev

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. carbo loading or post ride recovery????

      Delete
    2. Man, I love tequila, but it's early...

      Delete
    3. Just getting my head straight for a long day!

      GLUU is interesting here.

      Delete
    4. Just don't operate your steamroller

      Delete
    5. don't worry, I man the water trucks and steamrollers

      Delete
  7. Anyone in solar shitty?

    I took my 6% off.

    ReplyDelete
  8. David, whe you wake up this is for you. Per cashin

    A Very Big Bet In A Somewhat Unlikely Instrument – My friend, Jim Brown, the
    ever-alert consummate professional over at Option Investor pointed us to a rather
    unusual trade. Here's what he wrote in last night's edition of his valuable newsletter:
    Cashin’s Comments February 6, 2013
    Page 2 of 3
    ab
    In past years I have reported on trades that were so large it appeared someone had inside knowledge of a
    pending event. Sometimes those were massive put positions on the S&P. A new trade just appeared that
    suggests there will be a market event in the near future. Last week somebody put on a call spread on the VIX
    using the April 20 and 25 puts. They bought 150,000 contracts for a net of $75 per contract. That is an
    $11,250,000 bet that the VIX will move over 20 over the next 60 days. You would have to be VERY confident in
    your outlook to risk $11 million on a directional position with the VIX at five year lows and the markets trying to
    break out to new highs.
    Jim then goes on to list some of the scheduled events and deadlines visible over the next 60 days (mostly in Washington).
    When you add in the broad variety of geo-political possibilities, it's a decent reason to stay extra alert.

    ReplyDelete
  9. NSPH - Alright, I'm out with one tank of gasoline.

    Might buy back depending on earnings, I prefer this technology to the others I've read about b/c it's supposedly cable of identifying antibiotic resistance. This is a huge deal, IMO.

    Otherwise the mass spec crowd might win this battle depending on if they can achieve their goals.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sold my Flextronics (FLEX) today that I had bought in 2007 and lost 4% on it. Really thought these contract electronics manufacturers would be able to turn things around and they kep giving hopeful signs, but I'm starting to really doubt it and whether the market corrects now or in a couple of months, probably a good time to be selling and raising cash for getting into better stocks when the correction does come.

    ReplyDelete
  11. GMO - Turning my attention to this one, there's a gap up from $3.43 that needs to fill, and I have a tentative geometric downside target of $3.03

    HEK - I don't know what to think of this one for sure, although I lean towards believing the old guy can probably pull it off.

    I just don't see a clear focused business plan where all the pieces work together, seems too cobbled and disorganized, like it's little more more than speculation. One man team?

    ReplyDelete
  12. VE - I still feel really positive about this one, gonna have to wait and see what earnings look like.

    My dream is VE revisits recent mid $10's for my entry, but I can just as easily make a technical case for a trip to mid $16 from here.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's water which is a solid story regardless of what else happens, good dividend which they are looking to increase, good valuation, way down from previous trading range, reorging to sell divisions and reduce debt and improve balance sheet.

      In general the European utility type companies are much cheaper and have much better yields than North American. Their balance sheets are weaker, but they are improving and should get higher valuations.

      Delete
    2. You're right BB, I know you are.

      I'll probably wade in sometime today if weakness shows up, or maybe tomorrow around 10:30am

      Delete
  13. BAC - I recall it taking forever for this one to break through $12 looks like that resistance level still exists despite insider buying around $11.50

    This puppy could be on it's way to mid $13's?

    ReplyDelete
  14. FBC delivers it's first born to AGO in payment for crimes committed, I'm loving this! ;)

    PPMIQ - I wouldn't anticipate new investor interest involves any desire for rescuing existing common shareholders.

    ReplyDelete
  15. NLY - This one's my only remaining holding.

    ReplyDelete
  16. In line with Jesse's nat gas call lst night, the BMO Quant guys are saying:

    The MSCI World Financials Index is breaking below a very consistently outperforming trend, a trend which had its birth with the Draghi “Believe Me, It Will Be Enough” declaration last July – Figure 1.
    o We see that trend over in the credit market (RSF Jan. 31), and now we are starting to see it in the broad equity market as well.
     The consistently underperforming trend in the
    MSCI World Energy index was broken last month, and the trend is becoming more diffuse
    – Figure 2.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Replies
    1. Yep, right off the bottom trend line, who woulda guessed, the morons selling yesterday?

      Delete
  18. /ES fills the gap. JBTFD is still large and in charge.

    ReplyDelete
  19. busy morning. sold the rest of my DMND at $14.05 to $14.13.
    bought small stake in STS at $3.7. They have earnings after the bell tomorrow. this has been on my watch list for ever. the stock, if valued at normal valuations, would be worth $10.
    bought more PACB at $2.29 and $2.32.
    bought more TZA at $10.96.

    ReplyDelete
  20. VXX

    long a little as its not my favorite instrument

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. T3d -- there is time for everything under the sky. When VIX is above 16, VXX should be avoided like a plague. But when VIX is under 14, there is very little risk in going long VXX.

      Delete
  21. T3d, thanks for posting Art Cashin's comments regarding VIX -- that's very interesting!

    I think Big Boyz are onto something, and even the S&P chart has already started forming the standard "top" formation: an increasingly volatile sideways oscillation after a large run-up (implying that Big Boyz who were previously very confident about their market outlook and were relentlessly driving the market up, have now lost their confidence and are ready to bail out massively at the first sign of trouble).

    There is a small possibility that this top formation will result in a temporary spike up to kill the early shorts, followed by a massive pullback. In the case of such a spike, I will start scaling into S&P puts above 1525.

    ReplyDelete
  22. The spread on August KOLD puts is so large that I decided to buy some March puts, which have a smaller spread, and just bought 5 contracts of March $23 puts at $1.50. These cheaper March puts will also leave more buying power for me to buy S&P puts, if the opportunity arises.

    ReplyDelete
  23. if i had to guess we see this: 1,475 then 1,550, then 10% drop.

    short SHW at $162.9. shows declining momentum at all time highs and had relatively weak earnings. target $141.

    ReplyDelete
  24. XCO, this looks like its found some sort of bottom.

    Almost bought yesterday, but still beloe my last sell. Hmm

    ReplyDelete
  25. EEM looks very weak. I should have held my position in EDZ. that's up throughout this entire ramp higher. that probably makes it a good buy :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. IBM looks quite weak. triple top in place?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. going with that theme, though, it is probably a buy here.

      Delete
  27. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. XCO out

      for some reason do not want to be long the mkt, plus the buy on XCO was yesterday.

      Delete
  28. PACB getting hit by a couple of big orders but it appears to be holding in ok. Best of luck fellas!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Closed out my Tza for small loss

    Closed out Tvix for small gain

    Would have sold my vxx early this morn if I had been at my desk. Now I'm going to wait till tomorrow. Glad I sold half on Monday

    Check out epm.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Added to SHW short at $162.95.

    ReplyDelete
  31. VE - FYI from BACML report dated 1/29/13:

    "We reiterate Underperform rating and €7.5 PO
    We reiterate our Underperform rating three weeks after having reinstated coverage.
    The stock rallied c.10% over the last two weeks on the back of management having
    addressed several times the press about Veolia restructuring plan being on track.
    While nothing new has been put forward, we understand that company fits current
    market thirst for high beta/restructuring plays. Yet we believe that structural trends
    are being overlooked while the lack of organic deleveraging along with the limited
    earnings visibility offered do not call for any rerating of the stock.
    Organic deleveraging still difficult to achieve
    Management said the company would almost reach its net debt reduction target a
    year earlier than expected, which is in line with the comments made at the ninemonth
    results publication. Indeed, thanks to the deconsolidation of its Berlin water
    subsidiary, the company could indeed end up with close to €12bn of net debt at
    end 2012, which was an end 2013 target. The €1.5bn hybrid bond issued earlier
    this year will enable VIE to report a much lower leverage ratio as 50% of hybrid
    bond is considered as being equity according to credit rating agencies (100%
    under IFRS). Yet, despite accounting cosmetics/changes, and c. €4bn of
    disposals, only little deleveraging might be achieved at end 2012 with
    indebtedness ratio still at 3.7x, partly explaining why VIE issued a hybrid bond, in
    our view. Going forward, we do not expect a significant impact on leverage ratio
    from the deconsolidation of JVs currently proportionally consolidated (IFRS 11)."

    ReplyDelete
  32. Opened TVIX/TZA @ 5.15x/10.92x...

    ReplyDelete
  33. boy that PACB chart looks an awful lot like BIOL.

    ReplyDelete
  34. OUT of VXX, still looks good, two quick scalps today not my preferred way to trade.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Happy Birthday Bob Marley.

    "AVTC opens new sales office dedicated to Marley Coffee kiosks. AVT is the exclusive U.S. distributor of Marley Coffee branded kiosks and automated stores and will put 2000 company owned units into the market within the next 2 years and has projected sales from these units to top $24 million by year end 2014."

    Of course I'm paying no attention to this news.
    However, my position in AVTC (Marley Coffee/MDBX) is somehow doing much (13%) better today.

    Get up, stand up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. man all of your positions do well must be nice :)

      Delete
    2. I have 8 positions in the red.

      I have lightened up my exposure to approx 20% selling into any strength.

      Very small VXX position from 23.70.

      Delete
    3. Just thought I would mention...I sat on this thing underwater for a few weeks in two accounts.
      Nothing is easy. I drink alone.

      Delete
  36. JO - Coffee just keeps coming to me...

    ReplyDelete
  37. $WTIC - Lookin' like a decent short?

    ReplyDelete
  38. 1415 - So far we've failed to kiss this target, might need additional time to consolidate and otherwise, digest gains?

    ReplyDelete
  39. CCJ - Good call, huh?

    BACML PO $22

    11/2/12:
    Cameco Corporation: Lower growth = Cut PO 4% but Maintain Buy. Expect big 4Q12

    ReplyDelete
  40. This is what we are trading against...f'ing insane.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/high-frequency-trading-fake-quotes-2013-2

    I think I'll stick to smaller issues and pink sheet stocks that have to trade via limit orders.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh that's all bullshirt, SEC is on top of this, LOL(NOT)!

      Delete
  41. PAL - oops, missed this:

    So maybe soon PAL will go for a $30M raise up?

    1/6/13 BACML PO $1.30:

    "44.3koz produced in Q4, best quarter of the year
    Earlier this week, North American Palladium (PDL) provided some good operating
    figures for the fourth quarter of 2012. Total 2012 palladium production came to
    163.98 koz (44.3 koz in Q4) vs guidance of 150-160 koz and our estimate of 163
    koz. We have made adjustments to our model for the operating figures provided
    and we have adjusted our estimate for when Vezza will be in commercial
    production and as a result our 2012 earnings estimate has increased from a loss
    of C$0.16/sh to a loss of C$0.09/sh. For Q4’12 we are calling for an adjusted loss
    of C$0.02/sh, in line with consensus.
    Underground mining rate up 38.7% qoq
    In Q4’12 the LDI mine processed 511,226 tonnes of ore, with 239,794 tonnes
    coming from underground mining with an average grade of 4.93 gpt vs 172,879
    tonnes at 5.20 gpt in Q3 and 271,432 tonnes coming from surface sources with
    an average grade of 2.44 gpt vs 331,143 tonnes grading 2.35 gpt in Q3. The
    overall recovery rate was 82%. We have lowered our 2013 underground grade
    estimate from 5.20 gpt to 5.00 gpt, which is the main driver in our decrease in our
    2013 earnings estimate from C$0.04 to C$0.00 per share. Due to the changes in
    our model we now estimate the company is in need of C$30 million in additional
    financing (we have assumed a mix of debt and equity), down from our previous
    estimate of C$40 million. We estimate this additional financing needs to be raised
    no later than the end of Q2’13."

    ReplyDelete
  42. WTF man. DMND explodes after I sell my position the past 2 days on what I thought were "spikes" to $14.10 to $14.20. I can't buy a break.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was just looking at that, the market can be such a mind F--k, been there done that.

      Delete
    2. Robots f'in with prices, price discovery by braille.

      Delete
  43. Interesting

    http://www.businessinsider.com/baml-client-flows-february-5-2013-2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've never seen that kind of data from BAML, I'm still waiting for them to fix their order placement system and add some bells and whistles like trailing stops.

      Maybe they can get their stop limit order to work properly?

      Delete
  44. Added more TZA at $10.93. Playing for a potential downside push to 1,475 before new highs...

    ReplyDelete
  45. SQNM - Refuses to drop under $4, which means it's a buy under this level if the robots return to play their magic pricing monkey business, right?

    They might be doing this to AUMN this week, but there might be one more round of play coming before they rest or move elsewhere?

    ReplyDelete
  46. AEIS - 2/5/13 BACML $18.50 - Inverters

    Not trading advice, just ideas for entertainment purposes.

    ReplyDelete
  47. "Anyone in solar shitty?"

    Perhaps I don't feel compelled 'cause it's not crashing?

    Honestly can't explain it....... Maybe $10 gets ya' $5, hell I dunno!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All I do know is it's not gonna be different this time and I'm not going to eat the banana!!!

      Delete
    2. I jumped ship at $16 today.

      Don't look a gift horse in the mouth near tops.

      Delete
    3. $16 - Good job, that don't sound too shisty, more like the computer got hosed!

      Just typed in SHTY by accident & came up with.... zip!!!!! ;)

      Delete
  48. Bots and BS everywhere.

    It took about 20 minutes and 25,000 shares of trading HIMX between 2.895 and 2.90 to sell my limit order of 1000 shares. It's now 60,000 shares later and it's still 2.895-2.90.

    Seems like someone is trying to off a very large position at 2.90 or someone has a large order with instructions to not pay over 2.895.

    I'm betting it's the former.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HIMX conference call, tomorrow at 8 am eastern.
      Get me out at 2.90.

      Delete
  49. AGO up another 10% now and 37% this year - still holding. With the good fundamental news and still low valuation, I think the market takes this higher as risk is being reduced.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Highlight of my day, yellow marker all over it!!!!!!! ;))))))

      Delete
    2. That and managing an successful escape from NSPH purgatory. ;)

      Delete
    3. Good news. Who says FB is a waste of time?

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/assured-flagstar-verdict-idUSL1N0B5PPP20130206

      Delete
  50. wow. this is one of those days where literally everything i own is down...long or short. down 2% for the port today. now that is outperformance!

    ReplyDelete
  51. SNE: Caught this buried in the usual nonsense at the Sista blog.

    "Google (GOOG)

    Feb6: 5:28 AM YouTube (GOOG) is reportedly in talks to invest $50M for a 10% stake in music video service Vevo, which is owned by Sony (SNE), Universal Music and Abu Dhabi Media. Vevo syndicates videos across the Internet, including on YouTube - with which it shares ad revenues - and attracted 51.6M unique U.S. viewers in December."

    ReplyDelete
  52. I wonder how well Doug Kass actually does in the market? He's bearish. He makes a good case but I can see his case not mattering for several months.

    I agree with CC on the charts. Although I see nothing wrong with looking at the fundamentals and watching the charts for your fav longs/shorts.

    Just bot some VXX afterhours at 23.40. It cost an xtra $2.22 in commission. Tomorrow may just be the day I don't get the morning pop in the VXX, we'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  53. this is the CEO of PACB:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rt2W8cRmGw

    ReplyDelete