Wednesday, February 6, 2013
2/7/13 Something Wicked This Way Comes
We all know there will be a correction 'soon.' And it's likely to occur with an overnight gap. I have absolutely no reason to think it happens tonight. But I want placeholders in case it does. TZA 1000 shares @ 10.81 + TVIX 900 shares (all that filled) @ 5.02. Sort of a 'Don't Pass' bet.
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BB- Remember talking about oil services plays, and RES back in mid. Nov...+60% for that sucker.
ReplyDeletename a stock not up that much bro!
DeleteWow - oil services have been doing better, but +60 in 3 months is a nice gain.
DeleteNow the important question - did you buy?
BB- Course not.
DeleteAnd we could both ask BB in about 3 months if he sold ;)
DeleteThat's be quick - maybe should check in a couple of years!
DeleteUsually when everyone knows something, it doesn't happen. My thinking is that we grind higher for a couple of months, continuing to disappoint the people trying to time the top until most people stop, then we correct.
ReplyDeleteFrom CNBC: Doug Kass Gets 'Summer of 1987 Feeling' http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000146344
He says he is at his highest short position of the year. Kass is a pretty reasonable trader I think, but when people start talking about 1987, it doesn't happen. It's when people aren't talking about it that it does.
i believe two things will happen that most people aren't planning for:
Delete(1) a 20-25% drop
AND
(2) a 20-25% up year
You know, both of those events happen most years. Not always to the extent of 20-25%, but close enough to play. Just two years ago we had a -20% drop beginning May 2011-> complete recovery-> another -10% drop-> complete recovery. Last year the swings were muted. This year we'll see yet another version of the same.
DeleteI won't be following Kass. Making use of the new pundit tracker.
Deletehttp://pundittracker.com/pundits/profile/doug-kass
He rates just above Cramer and equal to Larry Kudlow.
Kudlow ranks higher than Cramer? ----.
DeleteNo, I goofed up.
DeleteHe gets an F along with Kudlow. Cramer gets a D-
I continue to hold a small position (4000 shares) in PACB. The company is located several exits down 101 in Menlo Park. When I listen to the conference call, the responses given + the way they're delivered kind of remind me of my Dad (a former prof @ Michigan), who used to work in the same neighborhood.
ReplyDeleteThese are not your typical corporate types- they're innovative scientists who believe in their work, and work hard with clients to solve problems + resolve complaints. I'm not necessarily saying the company is a good investment for that reason. My Dad was a founding shareholder in two companies that never got off the ground. PACB, on the other hand, is well off the ground and climbing.
I like NSPH for some of the same reasons, and may well open a position sometime soon.
You all remember the rush to buy genomic research companies in 1999, right? One of my younger brother's best friends was an analyst with Mark Tobias in HK, and I recall his statement to my Dad one morning that he had his entire 401(k) invested in a company that was out to map the human genome. My Dad moved some money into a biotech fund, which promptly returned +60% in three months. I advised he take some off the table, but he did not.
Now it's 2013, and companies are coming out with useful products. All game-changers. Probably one of the most exciting sectors one can invest in.
This science has so many applications and we have so many diseases and complex polygenetic problems to understand and resolve that the potential is nearly unlimited in human, animal and plant health.
DeleteWhich is exactly why PACB is likely to be bought out. The CEO's credentials are impeccable, and he's been through the startup -> buyout scenario more than once.
Deletehttp://www.crunchbase.com/person/michael-hunkapiller
WHR - That's an 100% gain off the bottom.......
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePETM - Island reversal in progress.
ReplyDeleteAlmost all stocks are P&D?
ReplyDelete"I rarely think the market is right. I believe non dividend stocks aren't much more than baseball cards. They are worth what you can convince someone to pay for it." -Mark Cuban
You know, like the value of a dollar.
There's too much hard-earned money at stake for that to be true?
DeleteNo better reason to wait till prices crater.
ZNGA????!!!!! $3.60 easily?
ReplyDeleteDoing some thinking overnight.
ReplyDeleteBased on all the high sentiment type readings and the run we've had, the odds of a nearterm pullback are high, say 80%. Hate to say this time is the 20%, but I think there's a higher than 20% possibility that we don't get it due to seasonal factors - start of year, high special dividends from December need to be reinvested, 401K deposits being directed towards equities, underallocation of pension funds to equities, etc.
The market also still has positive momentum, good valuations and support from easy monetary policy. Plus, we've got a lot of people expecting a pullback, so they will be shorting ahead of this, providing support to the market if it doesn't come.
So far this year, I've been selling some dogs and taking some profits on high fliers to raise some cash and looking for places to rotate to in the correction, but am still about 85% in stocks. A lot of these stocks I see as very cheap and wouldn't even want to try and time around a correction as I'd be concerned about getting back in.
My strategy has been to hold off on buying new positions and wait for this pullback, but I think instead now I am going to start buying starter positions (like 20% of full position) in stocks. That way if the market continue up, I'm exposed, but if we get the pullback, I can add at lower prices and get an overall good cost. Plus, for me, having a small position in a stock helps me to focus my attention more and dig deeper to make better longterm decisions.
SID/URA/JO/JVA are a few I'm watching.
DeleteAPA - How does the situation look in Egypt? That's supposedly what's holding this one back.
ReplyDeleteFrom Canadian Insider Trading Service - note that insiders both in Energy and Materials are very positive:
ReplyDeleteFebruary 4, 2013 - With Toronto stocks making new 52-week highs we would expect to see insider selling pick up as share prices become more expensive. As it turns out, despite a small uptick in insider selling, buyers remain in control. Our INK Indicator is still firmly in bullish territory at a touch under 150%. At the 150% mark there are 1.5 companies with key insider buying for every one with selling.
Generally speaking insiders are reluctant to sell now. Their current behaviour is in contrast to less than a year ago when the S&P/TSX Composite Index was slipping but tried to stay above the 12,500 support level. On March 1st, our INK Indicator dropped below 100%. A month later, stocks broke to the downside.
So why is insider sentiment stronger now even with stocks at higher prices than in March of last year? Global central bank behaviour probably has a lot to do with it. Since the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have been taking turns at pumping liquidity into the global financial system. However, there was one major reluctant dance partner at the monetary ball – the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Although the Japanese central bank had put in place an asset purchase program, the impact on money supply growth was muted. The Yen became the safe-haven of choice for global investors and appreciated against most major currencies.
Things in Japan have changed with the election late last fall of Shinzo Abe. He received a mandate to reinflate the Japanese economy and he seems determined to deliver. Indeed, in January there was hardly a night on the NHK 9 o’clock news in Japan when monetary policy or “Abeconomics” was not covered.
The BOJ is under intense pressure from the elected arm of government to raise prices in a meaningful way. The implications of Japanese policy moves for global markets are significant as they could delay a rise in short-term interest rates in western economies. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman may have hit the nail on the head when in a recent Business Insider interview he effectively suggested that developments in Japan could be a game changer for central banking (http://read.bi/12m45kP).
The war on deflation is heating up and Canadian insiders are unwilling to sell into it. There is one exception. Insiders in the tiny Canadian Utilities sector have picked up their selling. The sector is traditionally hurt by falling bond prices. So, perhaps insiders are signalling that the day of negative or near-negative real long-term bond yields is nearing an end. With our INK
Utilities Indicator at 57%, we are downgrading the sector to overvalued. All other indicator readings remain unchanged.
Makes sense, why would anyone sell into a war on deflation unless they believed the war would fail?
DeleteUNH doesn't seem overpriced?
New BOJ governor replacement is being discussed, not sure what's going on there but it sounds like Abe's looking for a replacement?
ReplyDeleteTwiggs TA. Momentum and money flow positive. David will like this analysis.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2013/02/07/gold-and-commodities-rising/
Got Random Thoughts?
ReplyDelete"The market came back from earlier weakness to end flat on the day. That is a good thing. Unfortunately, "flat" doesn't get you anywhere. In general, the indices have been losing steam as of late. As I've been saying ad nauseam, ideally, I'd like to see the market accelerate higher and not look back for a while, then have an orderly correction.
As usual, follow through will be key.
The Quack still looks a little questionable. It has been mostly sideways as of late and has failed to clear its recent peaks.
I still believe in studying our markets first and foremost but I can't help but noticing many of the indices of the world have lost momentum.
Getting back to US, once again, most sectors remain in solid uptrends. I suppose this isn't a revelation when you see the broad based Rusty just shy of all-time highs.
So what do we do? Not much has changed just yet. On new positions, I still like the more speculative issues that can trade independently of the market while the market finds its way (see newsletter and webinar archives for more on this). And, once again, on the short side, I still like the big cap stocks that have lost steam in spite of the overall market generally heading higher.
As usual, take things one day a time.
I'm going to flesh out all of the above in a lot more detail later today in the chart show. If you're not busy saving lives or doing other great things, then stop by.
Best of luck with your trading today!"
Dave Landry
10wk EMA is $13.05 for SNE. Let's see if it wants to test this area next week (which will be higher). I have my doubts. Earnings were weaker than expected but the Yen didn't start crashing until this year so that impact will be felt for Q1.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgz5K3evWtw
ReplyDeleteGood interview with Hunkapiller.
Note to self: Pick something to flip at the morning low, 10:30am
ReplyDeleteMWW - OUCHIE!!!!
ReplyDeleteJVA/MWW - You weren't chasing, were you??? tsk, tsk!!!
ReplyDeleteboy that monthly gold and silver chart looks like a declining triangle formation no? generally speaking that's a bearish pattern:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_
Speaking of which....the daily chart on SHW is putting in the same pattern over the past 2 weeks. With declining momentum readings and high volume red bars to me it's only a matter of time...
DeleteBuy the bearish pattern, sell the bullish one? This seems to work.....
DeleteLooking at (just to play devil's advocate) it would be easy to see the trendline drawn and conclude declining triangle, but if you look at the most recent part of the chart, it's going sideways in a range and has oscillating 63 day momentum. 63 days is a good sample.
DeleteHowever, Twiggs then goes on to warn of a momentum peak below zero or a reversal below $1650, so you have a well defined stop and if you are a Twiggs subscriber (I'm not) his proprietary momentum indicator. I see your triangle, but sooner or later those fail, no?
Devil's advocate off. :>)
Just for S&G's, that's 36-37 trading days of sideways range.
Deleteyeah i'm not a huge fan of patterns but the ascending triangle has been working big time over the past month or two. worked on a ton of stocks i have been watching, including Z
Deleteanother pattern resembling the ascending triangle: DECK. continues to put in a series of higher lows.
DeleteNatty - Okay, so Canada's going to export natty via Shell & associates?
ReplyDeleteBungee cord.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
MJNA - 2nd, where are you????
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Wow, I totally guessed right for once? I must have overslept.....
ReplyDelete1/2 hour remaining to pick something.
ReplyDeletebig down day for EURO.
ReplyDeleteTrying PACB @ 2.15.
ReplyDeletei'll be following you. i'm planning on buying in pieces...
DeleteThere's a 65K share order in @ 2.12 if it's real. It's wired. I don't see my order at 2.15.
DeleteI'm thinking we can leg into this over the coming days. Right now I have about 7% of the port in it...plan on making it up to 25%.
DeleteChoppy seas of liquidity this morning.
ReplyDeleteOffed the TVIX/TZA @ 5.07/10.88x...
ReplyDeleteFilled @ 5.09/10.89, so the selloff is picking up speed. Usually happens as soon as I close.
DeleteAUMN - Sell the strength.
ReplyDeleteSHW is right at the bottom of that descending triangle. Let's see if it can break below $161.5
ReplyDeleteI can't get too excited about a 1-cent trading range in MJNA, cp.
ReplyDeleteOh, you can trade that!!!!! Just buy weakness and sell strength. ;)
DeleteYou'll be providing support while making a killing, volume is the key approach as long as margins are thin.
DeleteUNH - These guys are rolling strong with their OptumRX, gonna put a whippin' on them chain stores?
ReplyDeleteI remember we were talking about the mortgage servicers back at least 6 months ago. Now that they're way way higher I see the media is catching up on it. you know what happens when that happens.
ReplyDeleteSNE - no way they bring it down to the 10 wk EMA this week right?
SNE: getting a well needed correction. I'm thinking it closes those upper gaps around the 30 DEMA. 13.48
ReplyDelete10 wk EMA is at $13.0
DeleteI don't know, maybe 13.48 would be over doing it....it's already below the 10 on the daily.
DeleteI forgot you are on weeklies.
Deleteyeah...that seems to be a magnet for these stocks like NOK and BBRY.
Delete13.62 is the previous peak, so right in there is good support and it's approx a 50% retrace of this big up move.
Deleteoffed VXX 23.98
ReplyDeleteGood work!!!! Very nice. ;)
DeleteI'm out of VXX too. Nice work if you can get it.
DeleteDing, ding it's time to trade.... Place your bets or stand aside (I choose the latter based on declining euro, guessing Draghi saw his shadow).
ReplyDeletehis comments lite up EUO, should of could of been long this.
DeleteRe-entering ANAD. Hope I don't get kicked in the ANAD's.
ReplyDeleteif this is a Landry trade what's the trigger? if not never mind.
Deletewow this is crazy i was looking at this last week. just like PACB. it has to be a landry trade since i'm pretty damn sure i screen for the same things landry does!
DeleteOK, I'll follow you in.
Delete2.60 is the trigger.
DeleteI've been trading around it so I can take a little downside. I was in and out for the last few days and re-entered this AM at 2.57 and sold at 2.64, back in at 2.58.
Spot on TOF!
Thanks Good Luck with trade.
Deletegold reversed, interesting traders buying gold on selloff.
ReplyDeleteSince you guys were forecasting yesterday, here's mine. US enters a recession causing a compresion in earnings which equates into a -30 drop for SP500. FED comes in with massive QE marks bottom in gold equities and mkt in general.
FWIW
Yes, yes, yes, I like the sound of that possibility!!!!! Hey, maybe miners will signal the bottom for gold?
DeleteAUMN, m we might be seeing the start of short covering here.
ReplyDeleteDang CP how come we did not get long PAL?
well they did what they do best: break slightly below 52 week low then rip it higher. why aren't we playing this more often? seriously.
DeleteDude, surely you heard my screaming(all the way from Hawaii) the day it fell under $1.20 ??????
DeleteSo many deaf ears..........
Don't worry though, they need to raise $30M before end of 2Q'13, news should be any minute now?
Delete$30M only justifies about a 10% decline, is my guess so anything more is gravy?
I did hear you cries, Tin ears!!!
DeleteHonestly, I was gonna buy under $1, my accumulation target was $0.99 and under, still is.
DeleteGold - You bought the weakness, right?
ReplyDeletei'd love to see 1,475 at some point soon. most likely ain't going to happen. i'm hoping we see 1,475 then 1,550. while i agree there are some people looking for tops i don't think the chorus is nearly as loud as it was last year or the year before. its pretty generally accepted that we're not going back to old lows. in 2010/11/12 that wasn't the case. also i'm seeing a lot more cockiness...err cconfidence...out of traders...
ReplyDeleteI love it when we see news stories about how hedge fund managers are buying from retail, the subtle message presented is retail mistakenly sold to smart money, right? Marks a top every time?
ReplyDeletehaven't hedge funds been underperforming the market for a while now?
DeleteHow you you know hedge funds underperform unless you heard it on TV or read it on the internet somewhere?
DeleteI'm certain you know what you read and hear is unreliable and it's more often than not misleading in some obscure yet important, aspect?
Feel free to tell me I'm wrong whenever I am, if so I really need to know for my own good.
yeah i think i saw it in print on actual performance for 2010, 2011, 2012 but i could be wrong.
DeleteThere are lots of hedge fund indexes out there and they have all been showing underperformance for quite a while.
Deletehttp://www.hedgeindex.com/hedgeindex/en/default.aspx?cy=USD
I have no idea if you're wrong, just seems like we see these subtle hints appear at turning points and my guess is they're designed to trick us.
DeleteSeriously though, I desire exchange of ideas and someone to slap some sense into me as need be, else I wouldn't hang out here.
I guess my theory on HF performance is they have access to resources and experience we don't have, maybe the computers are finely tuned to exploit their weaknesses?
DeleteI'm pretty sure my limited volume of common sense isn't much of a match, that's all I'm attempting to say.
"No matter how good you are at something, there's always someone out there who's better at it"
Captain Pickard
NSPH - $2.77 held, that's been the case several times now.
ReplyDeleteSWC - Speaking of short covering, I guess shorts must be dripping wet with sweat over this one as well?
ReplyDeleteok fellas...who is buying the dip in natty?
ReplyDeletetrendline is right around $3.26.
Deletethat would mark yet another higher low.
DeleteI guess a strong case could be made for buying it, except there's one hell of a lot more of it down a little deeper.
DeleteAfter all, Mark has been conversing with MOG on this, hasn't he?
Deep value stuff can be really tough to sniff out. Yeah, yeah, charts rule and fundamentals have no bearing......?????
buying the higher lows has worked for 9 months now. i think it works again...at least it's a low risk trade. enter at $3.28.
DeleteApparently Doug Kass conveniently "bought back my trading long rental in Apple at 455.60 just now" even though it was trading at $457. I gotta love how people "just" bought or sold stuff after it spikes up/down. I gotta take a course in that hindsight trading class.
ReplyDeleteI've been batting 1.000 since i started my hindsight trading class.
DeleteYeah, but $2 on a $455 stock is hardly a big deal.
DeleteGetting locked up watching ANAD and didn't post a small shot at MJNA at .2680
ReplyDeleteMDBX is helping.
Why can't all trades do this?
ANAD - Down to firing on one cylinder, eh? LOL!
Delete"semiconductor solutions to the broadband wireless and wireline communications markets."
This is the sector I was searching for following the recent FCC proposal to enable WIFI access available everywhere as GOOG has suggested/insisted.
ANAD stop is $2.00.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how many here will hang around for that, but that's the service suggestion with 2% at risk if stopped out.
So far not that thrilled, but it's still in the range.
Honestly, there has to be another alternative to this tiny company of 540 employees and an gross margin of less than 4%?
DeleteJust sayin', doesn't look good to me, not that I have any particular nightmarish power of insight.
Insiders:
ReplyDeletehttp://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-02-06/commentary/36937273_1_sell-to-buy-ratio-insider-indicator-corporate-insiders
Exited MJNA at .295
ReplyDeleteMy selling was the signal....it never fails....
DeleteMBI - Is this another company in a situation similar to AGO?
ReplyDeletei've been wasting my time looking at the longer term chart of SPF. we were on top of that at $2 yet didn't act. What was the trigger? i see diverging strength in RSI_EMA on the monthly chart as it was putting in lows around $2 fifteen months ago. It rose 300% within 12 months.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to find others in the sectors we're looking at now: european stocks, emerging market stocks that have been crushed. I'm seeing some similarities in the chart of SID.
went long SID at 5.44
DeleteLike NG trade as you suggest, NG mar 13 failed yesterday at the 50 dma. It would be really nice if it could break below 3.
But there is no question the US has a ton of this stuff which makes the trade fundamentally hard due to supply/demand equation. But f--k it we are just trading.
ANAD: Fair warning...no way in hell I hold this down to $2.00. We're on top of some support but I'm not going to give back my previous gains so smoke em' if you got em'.
ReplyDeleteProbably the next tier down is 2.45, so I'd stick around for that, but I have a full position so if it's wrong, it's wrong and like they say on Shark Tank, "I'm out".
PPMIQ - Okay, so what's really up with this one guys? Surely this mortgage insurer stands to recoup losses from liar loans, or are they part and parcel to MBS crimes committed?
ReplyDeleteJust bought stock in a Canadian engineering company IBG in Toronto. It's down from $14 a year ago as they were paying too much in dividends, then they cut the dividend in Decemeber and the stock went from $9 to $6. So, for the last couple of months, you've got the income type holders who have been selling and it seems that it may have bottommed. Still pays a 7% yield, is consistently profitable, about 80% of book, growing through acquisition as it consolidates smaller engineering companies.
ReplyDeleteCould I get it cheaper if the long awaited pullback comes? Probably, but like I said this morning, maybe not, and there's probably not a ton more of downside in it if we do get a pullback given that it is down over 55% in the last year.
Is the selling just due to the div cut or is there other issues?
DeleteI remember selling PFE when the cut div, big mistake as it recovered price and then the pricks re-raised the div, the mkt mind meld.
Interesting chart have it on the list, I must say since hanging at TT I never bought and sold so many small caps. I'm a fish called Wanda.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bqn8zoLpvU
Yep, and the obvious option involves adding to the position assuming the bottom has yet to fully materialize.
Deleteot:
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEDmFIUb83A&feature=endscreen&NR=1
first cut
Always appreciated JLC's puppies.
Deletehttp://xhamster.com/movies/1125489/jamie_lee_curtis_grandview_topless.html?embed=related
IBG used to be one of those high-yielding Canadian Income Trusts. They converted to a corporation and should have cut their dividend, but didn't. As the economy weakened, they were paying out too much of their income in dividends, but still tried to avoid the cut. Eventually, they had to do it, but these income-oriented stocks always get hammered on the actual cut, even if people know it is coming. The new dividend is sustainable, they are still growing (Q4 which they just finished, but haven't reported, is supposed to be the best quarter in their history), their debt levels are fine. They are also one of the cheapest on most valuation metrics of the engineering companies in Canada or the US, because, of course, the big price fall back they've had.
DeleteNSPH - Lookin' to reestablish my position around a $2.4x handle.
ReplyDeleteStill not exactly sure why primarily b/c of an article I read explaining that Verigene was used in parallel with an spectrum analyzer during a clinical study only b/c the analyzer hadn't been FDA approved.....
I guess hope lies in my doubt antibiotic resistance can be discriminated by spectrum analysis, the expectation is where it gets foggy and in fact the feat may be entirely possible.
There are other factors, such as cost/analysis, sensitivity and complexity of testing that need to be understood as well.
just from that interview i posted earlier with Hunkapiller i get the sense that PACB is offering something more unique than NSPH is.
Deleteso which one of you kats is on the bid right now with 68k shares?
They are already using genome mapping to determine antibiotic resistance/effectiveness.
Delete68K shares? I wish I had that kind of problem...
You know the problem with that, once you throw out a visible limit order that size it almost guarantees it won't happen.
that's gotta be Mark
DeleteHaven't seen the Hunk's interview so no comment there yet, but I see quite a bit of this kind of stuff circulating:
Delete"The results of the presented studies demonstrate that MALDI-TOF MS is a relevant tool for the detection of antibiotic resistance and opens new avenues for both clinical and experimental microbiology."
BRKR is one of two companies involved I've managed to find. MS isn't new, it's quite mature, however this particular application appears to be very new.
"a visible limit order that size it almost guarantees it won't happen."
DeleteEverything has it's purpose, opposites attract, and a few other cliches might be applicable...
Hey, I'm good with it since it acts as a floor....
DeleteHush Puppies now don't you cry.
ReplyDeleteSTS good luck with the earnings afh, TOF
thanks man...position is tiny so not a big deal but i'm tempted to add to it.
DeleteI likey, trucks and tractors make good fun. Can't say the same about the tattoed hairballs driving em.
DeleteSTS no coverage but BACML likes PCAR & KUB, PO is $54/$65 for these...
wow man this is just tough being short. closed my TZA at $10.87 and my SHW at $162.85.
ReplyDeleteha. let emotions get the best of me and now it's higher. of course!
DeleteI re-entered the trade at $10.91. 3rd time is a charm? please?
DeleteClosed it at $10.91. Hey at least i didn't lose money!
DeletePicked up a little more PACB at $2.25.
ReplyDeleteok who has the ballz to pick up natty right here?
ReplyDeleteIt's only worth something when you wanna buy some, and not worth squat when you want to sell?
Deleteit's friggin impossible to enter STS. i have a whopping 4% of my port in it which means it's definitely going to rip higher tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ @ 19.5x...
ReplyDeleteANAD> Fair enough. Taking down the position.
ReplyDeleteGo ANAD! ;)
DeleteWho has the balls to hold UGAZ for a move into the 30s or 40s?
ReplyDeleteTZA back on at $10.92.
ReplyDeleteoff again at $10.89. wow. now 0 for 4.
Deletei just did a dirty deed. i switched sides and am sleeping with TZA's mistress: TNA. since TZA has been so rude to me i'm thinking her twin sister will do me right. since it doesn't sense to trade from the long side here logically, it makes sense to trade from the long side here. i am only playing it for the potential for a spike into the close.
Deletewinner winner sheen dinner.
DeleteFinally...got some T&A from the bad sister?
DeletePACB - Okay, now I see there's a connection between Hunkapillar and Verinata. Why is it all roads lead to Palo Alto???...
ReplyDelete"A pioneer of genome sequencing, Quake is an advocate of using the power of DNA sequencing to monitor health. His research led to the development of a prenatal blood test that accurately detects Down syndrome. His team has devised an ingenious way to the scan fetal DNA present in the mother's blood to determine whether the fetus' cells contain extra chromosomes associated with several types of severe birth defects."
AREX long 25.93
ReplyDeletetaking the shot down -5% where I sold last, good trading stock though too pricey for you guys.
IBG trades here on pinks as IBIBF
ReplyDeleteanyone remmber where you can get qoutes on pinks sheets?
otcmarkets.com
DeleteIBG.TO Closed up 0.10 re: YHOO
DeleteSTS earnings sucked. should see downside tomorrow for sure.
ReplyDeleteWheeeewwwwweeeeeeee!!!!!!
DeleteMay the force be with you!
WOW, the headlines say this:
DeleteSupreme Industries Reports Significantly Improved 2012 Earnings
Full-Year Net Income Surges to $11.8 Million from $0.8 Million in 2011 02/07 04:00 PM
Net Income per Diluted Share Increases to $0.77 from $0.05 in Prior Year
Putting today into perspective:
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2013/02/07/when-galaxies-collide-the-enormity-of-space/
Transitions always feel like being in a Cuisinart to me.
It could be worse.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-07/asteroid-s-earth-fly-by-will-traverse-satellite-zone-nasa-says.html
DeleteSupreme Industries Reports Significantly Improved 2012 Earnings
ReplyDeleteFull-Year Net Income Surges to $11.8 Million from $0.8 Million in 2011 02/07 04:00 PM
Net Income per Diluted Share Increases to $0.77 from $0.05 in Prior Year
GOSHEN, Ind.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Supreme Industries, Inc. (STS:$3.69,00$0.09,002.50%) , a leading manufacturer of specialized commercial vehicles including truck bodies, shuttle buses, and armored vehicles, today announced significantly improved earnings for its full year ended Dec. 29, 2012.
2012 Fourth-Quarter Results
Consolidated net sales of $57.7 million for the fourth quarter declined 11.8% from $65.5 million in last year’s comparable period. The lower sales related to two large orders in the fourth quarter of 2011 that were not repeated in 2012, along with intense competition and increased discounting in the bus industry on state and municipal bid orders.
Gross margin as a percentage of sales declined slightly to 13.2%, compared with 13.4% in last year’s fourth quarter. Gross profit declined to $7.6 million from last year’s $8.7 million on the lower sales volume and a change in product mix. Other income increased $0.2 million due to a gain on sale of an investment. For the quarter, the Company reported net income of $0.4 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, compared with net income of $1.9 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Supreme’s Chief Financial Officer and Interim Chief Executive Officer Matthew Long said: “We continue to successfully implement the strategy of concentrating on sales and markets that meet or exceed our margin criteria. By enhancing manufacturing efficiencies and better managing costs, we have successfully developed a model that can drive sustainable profits into the future. Entering 2013, we are encouraged by our team’s progress to date, and by the opportunities we see before us to continue satisfying our customers with on-time delivery of specialty vehicles that represent the very best quality, safety and value.”
cont:
ReplyDelete2012 Full-Year Results
Consolidated net sales decreased 4.7%, to $286.1 million, from $300.4 million last year. Gross profit increased 33.9%, to $43.5 million, from 2011’s $32.5 million. Gross profit, as a percentage of sales, improved dramatically to 15.2%, compared with 10.8% in 2011. The 4.4% increase in gross margin percentage is the result of refined pricing methodologies, improved labor efficiencies and the redesign of certain manufacturing facilities.
The Company reported full-year income from continuing operations of $11.8 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, compared with last year’s income from continuing operations of $1.7 million, or $0.11 per diluted share. Net income for the full year improved to $11.8 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, compared with net income of $0.8 million, or $0.05 per diluted share in 2011, which included the impact from discontinued operations.
The Company’s effective tax rate was 5.9% for the year ending Dec. 29, 2012, substantially lower than statutory rates due to the reversal of deferred tax asset reserves and the use of net operating loss carryforwards. Reported financial results in 2011 included an income tax benefit of $0.4 million recorded in the fourth quarter, resulting from expiring state statues related to uncertain tax positions. Beginning with the first quarter of 2013, the Company expects to recognize income taxes at more normalized rates.
Working capital was $38.6 million at Dec. 29, 2012, up from $35.4 million at Dec. 31, 2011. The working capital ratio was 2.7 to 1 versus 2.0 to 1 for the respective periods. During 2012, Supreme invested $7.1 million in facilities and equipment to enhance efficiencies and $6.1 million to exercise two related-party lease purchase options. On Dec. 19, 2012, the Company entered into a five-year revised cash flow credit agreement increasing its line of credit to $45 million with improved liquidity, availability and interest rate pricing. Total debt declined to $14.1 million at year end, compared with $15.9 million last year. Stockholders’ equity increased 22% to $67.2 million, or $4.41 per share, at Dec. 29, 2012, compared with $54.9 million, or $3.71 per share, at Dec. 31, 2011. Net cash provided by operating activities during 2012 totaled $12.4 million, compared with $14.5 million in 2011.
As disclosed in the second quarter of 2012, the Company self-identified an immaterial error related to revenue recognition. Accordingly, its consolidated financial statements reflect the correction of the immaterial error
quarter was TERRIBLE and the gross margins look a bit weaker than PY. not good man. glad i only have a small stake in it. freaking mine field out there.
Delete" freaking mine field out there."
DeleteYeah, make hay while someone's pumping your turd????
I just realized, I may know someone who worked in that plant or company. He was on the production line area responsible for repairing blemishes and once told me the workers would purposely cut gashes in the school bus bodies and he'd have to repair them.
DeleteNot sure if it's the same company......
I think STS could see sub $3 tomorrow.
DeleteI did manage to get some UGAZ after hours at $19.51/5.
ReplyDeleteI also bought a tiny amount of tiny amount of VE at $12.9 and a larger chunk of SID at $5.45 today.
ReplyDeleteNice timing on my part buying KOLD March $23 puts yesterday. I am glad I only put $750 into them...
ReplyDeleteAdded more VXX AH.
ReplyDeleteBought some port killer...UNG AH.
Meredith Whitney: "S&P fraud hard to believe, hard to prove."
ReplyDeleteThis is the type of woman I used to love to date in the 70's when I was young and irresponsible.
i also bought some TZOO today at $21.04. again, small position. most of these have the same setups: pullback from big spike on high volume...all after a long down period and base. trying to keep the 10wk EMA's in mind and like to see diverging MACD, Stochastics, and RSI.
ReplyDeleteOn Nat Gas, my thinking is there continues to be a series of higher lows. At some point it gets taken out and maybe it is this time. But the setup is very low risk, relatively speaking. I also think that all of these shakeouts are forming the foundation for a big move higher as less and less people believe in it. i set aside a good amount of cash to buy a bit lower if it gets down to $3.2ish.
ReplyDeleteThis is good news.
Deleteyeah i definitely agree.
DeleteSo TOF, did we miss our shot at SNE?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like a retrace of the sell off to me as it lost momentum and trailed off...but it would have made a nice day trade.
honestly, it looks like this is going to trade sideways and let the 10 wk EMA catch up to it. So I would say most likely we won't see $13 again barring an absolute collapse in the markets. Besides I'm liking the upside in UGAZ, PACB, TZOO, SID, VE etc. Let's say SNE goes to $20...awesome move right? Well the equivalent of that would be:
DeleteANAD to $3.25
PACB to $2.9
UGAZ to $25
TZOO to $27
VE to $16
SID to $7
I like the odds of each of those just as much if not more.
SPWR taken behind wood shed and shot after earnings....
ReplyDeleteI should go buy a lottery ticket. I sold today into the rally at 8.60.
Head at 1514, neck line at 1496-1498, target 1470
ReplyDeletei mean am i crazy? is that not yet another cup forming on nat gas? this looks a lot like the period in august/sept where everyone, including myself, got shaken out.
ReplyDeletei ended up buying a decent chunk of UGAZ after hours at $19.54 avg but have enough set aside to double down. wish me luck fellas!
Deleteyou are crazy, it has nothing to do with ugaz.
DeleteI have a short report I'll send to mark and he can forward later on. it really makes me bullish natty over the next 2 years. Maybe a play for us non day trader types would be to buy UNG and sell covered calls or maybe sell lower strike cash secured puts. No options on UGAZ that I see.
sold the vxx shares i bot yesterday at 24.115 today after the vxx traded up into the 24's the second time this morning. I really thought I had missed it.
ReplyDeleteI still have part of my original vxx position at 24.45, really thought about selling them too but maybe tomorrow is the day.
Here's what I think and it's not worth a whole lot. I think we waffle till next Tuesday night. The dow will make a low in the futures overnight and will probably have already started recovereing by wed's open.
I'll just follow Dave/CC and take it one day at a time. Wish I had those AAPL calls back that I got stopped out of earlier this week.
QQQ - H&S with tight BB, which way do we go? Close gap up and retest 200SMA, or bang this puppy higher?
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Whatever happened to the $33x call????
ReplyDeleteUNG - Tanked ~400ms prior to the 10:30 inventory?
ReplyDeleteIs that a simple rounding of an accurately measured delta, or a WAG?
DeleteEPM - Very strong earnings response
ReplyDelete