Sure, we all know NGas isn't worth ----. Neither were airlines in 2009. But I digress. What interests me is that futures can drop -4% on comments about something as accurate as a weather forecast.
SNE had a 4% pullback today on weak earnings. You may see some followthrough to the downside as analysts revamp their estimates. They did confirm full year guidance, but probably some Tokyo brokerages will be taking numbers down.
Here's what I think. No one has a freaking clue where NGas prices are headed. No one had a clue last night, and no one has a clue tonight. For that matter, no one knows where the indexes are headed tomorrow. We buy on weakness, and make an educated guess on ST price direction.
Submitted by Vadym Graifer (3820 comments) on Thu, 02/07/2013 - 21:17 #117279(in reply to #117273)
To tell you the truth, I am more used to a disappointed "that's all?" look from those who find out what my trading system is, rather than seeing it called sophisticated :)
My charts are insultingly simple, I don't use technical indicators beyond simple MA and Bollinger bands, and even those are just for the visual, not for any number-expressed rules. I fully agree with Billy's response - keep it simple, keep it visual, remember that one can't know everything related to a company/stock and no one can predict the future, thus control your risk so no single loss ever takes you out of the game
The NYU guy has updated his stats for 2012: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm
What I find amazing is that since 1960, other than a 13 year period in the 1970's into the early 1980's when inflation was rampant and interest rates high, the earnings yield has never been higher than in 2008, 2011 and 2012.
Makes you wonder what Hussman, Grantham and the boys are smoking? Oh yeah, it's the Schiller CAPE ratio - making them miss one of the best bull market runs in a long time.
Craig is fond of saying he couldn't care less about fundamentals as long as the charts look good. When it comes to ST positions, I couldn't care less about fundies as long as I'm buying on weakness.
NGas is a commodity, for crying out loud. Futes were priced 4% higher yesterday, and there were real (and presumably happy) buyers (of the actual commodity, not the freaking ETF) at that price. Prices dropped today, and buyers who locked in today are more fortunate than those who locked in yesterday. Next week, both groups may be sitting in the catbird seat. Or the woodshed. We don't know.
"No one has a freaking clue where NGas prices are headed."
Honestly, I believe they're headed up, b/c it cannot be produced at current prices as the oil companies have clearly stated. Meanwhile, demand is increasing.
Can cost of production fall? I don't expect it can appreciably, due in large part to environmental control requirements.
Maybe Mark can set us straight, last he told us was to anticipate lower prices and it seems he was correct?
UGA - Daily RSI(7) this yo-yo transitioned down through 70 today. Maybe if Europe gets their needed currency relief(an opportunity to lob some euro-made goods through an export window) commodities should come off. Short term euro strength is putting the cart in front of the horse IMO, I don't know how the equities market could insist on a strong euro in a longer time horizon.
Wonder how much corporate capital is being tied up just hedging against these manipulated currency swings?
After I last exited UGAZ at like $20.3 I believe...I watched yet another spike much higher than when I sold and rather than sit there and kick myself I just decided I would look for another entry knowing damn well that it would come. The point was simple as sh*t: trendline + slightly higher lows = $3.27 or $3.28.
Today when I was confronted with a crash and saw $3.28 print on my screen I froze. I literally spent the better part of 2 hours watching and trying to gather up the courage to buy but I couldn't. Then I read that article from Dan Dicker which just spelled capitulation to me. I took a look at the chart again with the big spike down on heavy vol and tried to envision what it was like to have bought over the past few days and go through this. I imagined thousands of traders collectively cursing at their screens and wondering what the hell they were thinking. Then I spent some time scrolling the message board at First Enercast and saw nothing but sheer joy by bears and no bullish sentiment. That was good enough for me. We'll see how it all plays out. I'm pretty sure I'll be dealing with my own fair share of pain and frustration. But I do see a clear inverse head and shoulders on the weekly chart with a $4 price target. If I have the ballz to hold til then that makes it a 50%+ move for UGAZ. Unlike last time, if it spikes 7% tomorrow I probably won't sell. I really think if it's heading higher this latest move was the last fakeout before the real move higher commences.
if this nat gas bull market is the real deal (and I think it is) then like all other bull markets it will have its fair share of shakeouts and gut wrenching periods that really tests the bulls mantle. In a bull market life cycle the beginning stages are often the hardest ones to endure (think gold in 2000 or the S&P in 2010 and 2011). It's the latter stages that can oftentimes just ramp higher and higher to much disbelief. Again, look at gold. Gold bottomed at 253 in the fall of 99. It spiked almost 50% higher in 3 weeks. Then it spent the next 18 months grinding lower and lower until it made a double bottom just above the prior lows. Gold then went on to make a series of higher highs for 7 years...with lots of pullbacks along the way. I think this Nat Gas bull is no different but we shall see soon enough. We're at one of the test points. Very exciting stuff!
Okay guys, I'll paraphrase from tonight's service.
'Not many set-ups, listening to the database is a good thing. Out of 3000 stocks 8 are interesting. (3 shorts and five longs). Listening to the database can keep us out of trouble.'
Does anyone here think we'll get a pullback in the yen? I'm looking at YCS on the weekly chart. It's the most extended it's ever been over the 10 week MA. Looks like it's knifing through a big resistance area from Oct 2009 through Apr 2010.
If I use $42 as a basing price then it's up almost 40% since Oct 1, 2012. I was going to look at leaps but the options only go out to Aug 2013.
Here's Zulauf's comments and he get's an A+ on pundittracker. It looks like this was posted on Jan 20.
http://felixzulaufblog.blogspot.com/
Zulauf: GDP has been stagnant in nominal [noninflation-adjusted] terms for 20 years. The price for generating growth is higher indebtedness. In the past 22 years, the market capitalization of Japanese stocks has fallen by 75%. The capitalization of the bond market has risen by four times. A major reallocation from bonds to stocks is beginning. I would be surprised if the Japanese stock market didn't rally 50% in the next two years. The best instrument to play this trend is a currency-hedged exchange-traded fund listed in the U.S. It is the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity fund, or DXJ. It trades for $38.53.
The ETF may be diversified and safer, but if SNE goes from 9.50(?) to 19.00 it will be 100% and I suspect faster than two years. 50% for the entire market would be good though, but subject to his GDP comment as it would be driven by debt/inflation.
Gotta agree with his take on GDP though. We haven't had real organic growth in years, it's all been re-priced stagnant production with smoke and mirrors.
YRCW earnings coming out this morning. Still holding it and hopeful there are good signs in this report. They will be hurt by Sandy, but good management would quantify these to better show how the real business is doing. I think their management is pretty good.
honestly at first glance i'm very surprised by the #'s. Q4 is their worst quarter and they had to deal with Sandy and yet they still managed to post a solid operating profit. well done. obviously the issue is they still can't post a net profit or really pare down debt. It looks like they posted a bit higher cash levels but that is related to collecting some receivables. I bet this spikes and then does it's usual retreat. Q2 is where the rubber meets the road. They will need to post a net profit that quarter. Last year they posted solid #'s in Q2 and Q3 and were close to break-even. The trend is upward though. I'm tempted to buy a little today.
They need a some giveback from the Union and I thought they were making progress. But the Salaries Expense for 2012 is flat from 2011, so it doesn't look like anything happenned, especially considering the non-operating expense was down by over 22%.
The would have been about break even for the year if they had no debt, so making progress. To me, it looks like if they could cut salaries by about 6%, would be profitable, so seems like that should be doable. Unions at other still-unionized truckers (like ABFS) have made concessions. Will try and listen to the 9:30 concall to see what they say about this.
SNE - Red by almost 4% this morning to me is a bit surprising. Surely the market expected better but how since the yen has only recently lost value, Europe is still mired(must be improving?) and there hasn't been enough time for the changes to take effect?
So what happens as Europe heals, all the bad vibes evaporate!
Usually after a bad Q like SNE had, you get the analyst downgrades, so see weakness for a few days to even weeks. Sony was down over 10% in Tokyo last night. The earnings came out after yesterday's Tokyo close but before the New York open, so we had the 5% in New York yesterday and will see more today. I'm sure if you had access to the Japan brokerages, they were downgrading their outlooks for SNE, just like here.
I find with the ADR's, it's good to also follow their real listings in their home countries. For European stocks, you can add the symbols to Yahoo Finance, but for Japan and Israel (MGIC), you need to go to the native stock exchanges.
BTW, keep your eye on SNE today. It posted bad earnings and went down in Japan, then rebounded in th U.S. ADR yesterday, then gets taken down in Japan overnight. It's possible it does this again due to currency considerations and shorts. Japan takes it down on earnings, we bid it up on currency/shorts, rinse repeat. It was interesting to watch yesterday but I was thinking about this trade last night when Asia was correcting. This is where it was at the low yesterday ($14.67) when TOF and I posted about it. It promptly rallied to over $15.
wow. what a horrible conference call for STS. you guys should listen to it. two callers basically said the stock is a dog and they need to sell the company. looks like i'm going to take a bath on this one today. on to YRCW!
Bought more TZOO at $21.29. I think this thing runs hard over the coming year. They are building out their own hotel book platform and the stock is cheap relative to the traffic it gets and cash flow. Would have preferred to get it at $20 but oh well.
there's this big old wedge forming on nat gas on the weekly chart. right now it's at the low point of the wedge. the high point is about $3.65. i'd take a move to there...please...
Seems like the last week is turning out to be more of a sideways consolidation to work off the overboughtness and now we are breaking to the upside. Kind of fits in with my theory that larger early year mutual fund equity contributions into equities are overriding traditional correction points.
Barrons talks about the same: http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/02/08/buy-the-morning-enjoy-the-afternoon-a-fund-flow-effect/
Return to high? Just a theory but a return to today's high could be a good place to dhort b/c we should soften into close in order to cause confusion prior to Monday's upside continuation.
NG - Will natty return to it's long term mean? F'n-A it will, just right now it must remain low and plentiful enough in order to hook the public line and sinker into insisting on LT commitments?
I've clearly been wrong on this but it wouldn't surprise me to see the market tank today into the close, hit 1,475 on monday and then do a major reversal to new highs. in fact, by being long UGAZ in a way i'm positioned for this.
Read that it could be the $30+ billion from the Dell buyout and now Virgin Media could be supporting the market as the arb money flows in and the long term money moves to other stocks. Plus options expiration next week tends to extend a trend. Because of these, could have a good run into next Friday.
Sold at $14.88 my 500 shares of SNE that I bought at $15.08. So far it is only a $100 loss, but I would be much more comfortable holding SNE if I saw that it holds yesterday's spike low for a day or two. Even if it would mean that I will have to re-enter at a higher price...
Some of that stuff if not a lot of it will need to be corrosion resistant, plastic might work in many cases but I bet there should be at least a tiny demand for stainless materials such as those offered by HAYN?
Ok looking at VIX in conjunction with Jesse tight 3 wkly closes. Looking back 10 years wkly slow stochastic (SS) setting of 5,3 has turned up and is at 13.53. SS setting 14,3 is lifting 4.30. The 5,3 gives a faster turn signal. So probability wise off of 10 year view decent entry, the fly is if we were to go sideways.
Combine with Demark SP chart (thanks Kyle) gives us another view that we are extended and due. Looking at SS 14,3 it reads 99.66, extreme! Can it stay extreme? yes .
You could use a stop on SP for VXX anywhere from 1528 upto 1550 depending on preference.
Even though S&P is making a new high today, the high-yield credit chart is not looking hot at all (HYG). So sticking with VXX/TVIX might be a good idea...
The high yielders (HYG) have become expensive relative to other bonds over the last several months and should correct. All that is holding them up I think are the yield chasers.
TLT (20 year treasuries) peaked in July, LQD (High grade bonds) in October, but the high-yielders (HYG) continued up into the end of January.
Bought a starter position in PACB of 500 shares now. Placed a buy stop limit for 1K more shares at $3.45/$3.50 -- if it gets there, then the pullback will most likely be over.
On a second thought, sold my 500 shares and canceled my buy stop limit order. I read the company's latest conference call, saw that their revenue guidance for 2013 is the same as for 2012, when they lost $70M, and I just could not figure out how they were planning to become profitable. I would rather keep the little cash I have available to invest in TC once it breaks above $4.50, since TC has a gold mine coming to production in 4Q2013, which will make them very profitable.
Our weekly installment of succinct summation of the week’s events for February 8 2013:
Positives:
1) Rally continues, with S&P 500 hitting highest levels since December 2007 2) Institute for Supply Management said services sector index was 55.2 last month. 3) European Central Bank left its main lending unchanged at 0.75% 4) Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000 5) MBA said refi apps rose 3.5% and purchase apps were up 2.2% as maybe in part due to fence sitter effect as mortgage rates rise to 3.72% from 3.67%, the highest since Sept. 6) Market internals look strong with small caps and transports breaking out to all time highs. 7) Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose in December for a 5th straight month; Non-revolving credit surged by the most in 11 years. Revolving debt (like credit cards), fell by $3.6 billion, the most since July. 8) The country’s trade gap narrowed to $38.5 billion in December: Rise in exports + lower imports of oil pushed the U.S. trade deficit to its narrowest point in three years; 9) Newspapers are Not dead yet: For the past 6 out of the last 7 quarters, NYT had upside surprise; 10) The CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year. This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years. 11) 18 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters posted 5.8% growth in January same-store sales;
Negatives:
1) Commerce Dept said factory orders rose by 1.8% in December, below 2.3% consensus 2) New orders index, a forward-looking measure, was at its lowest since April 2012 3) With S&P 500 trading near multi-year highs, individual investors are becoming increasingly bearish. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment dropped from 48.04% down to 42.77%. Sentiment has now dropped ~10% past 2 weeks. 4) Non-Farm Labor Productivity fell by a seasonally adjusted 2% in Q4, according to BLS 5) Average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.555. Gasoline prices have climbed every day for the past 21 days.(source: AAA) 6) Berlusconi is accused of dangerous propoganda, with 3 weeks to go in the Italian elections. Bond yields nearing 6 week high. 7) Congressional Budget Office assumes unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014, and GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013. 8) January Non Defense Capital Goods ex-aircraft — the core CapEx component of Durable Goods — was revised to a decline of .3% vs the 1st read of up .2%. 9) From a Contrarian perspective standpoint, Institutional Investor had Bullish newsletter writers on the rise to 54.7 while Bears fell to 21.1. The spread between the two has not been this wide since June ’11 and the late 2011 Summer 18% correction.
traded in an out of sds for a small loss. i had a pretty tight stop on it but there wasn't much there either way and I didn't want to take it on over the weekend.
bot 200 shares of slv after hours at 30.40, just a feeling or more likely influenced from some of my readings. after thinking about it i would have probably preferred to just buy some jan 14 calls on it. Maybe I'll do that next week.
i would have bot some vxx at the close if i didn't already have 500 underwater shares.
i may buy some RNF next week. I sold that one way too early in the low 40's.
If I were the market and I wanted to frustrate the most peeps, I think I'd just start grinding up again. Very shallow pullbacks, trade through S&P 1525, get peeps convinced that we're going MUCH higher and then break down around 1575-1600 or so. It seems like I'm hearing lots of peeps calling for a minor correction these days. Protection is so cheap though that I would think the big money is hedged against any major correction.
"navy delays overhaul of aircraft carrier uss abraham lincoln due to budget concerns"
Unless otherwise specified, all contracts are issued to Northrop Grumman’s Newport News (now Huntington Ingalls Industries) shipyard in Newport News, VA by the Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC.
SNE had a 4% pullback today on weak earnings. You may see some followthrough to the downside as analysts revamp their estimates. They did confirm full year guidance, but probably some Tokyo brokerages will be taking numbers down.
ReplyDeleteHere's what I think. No one has a freaking clue where NGas prices are headed. No one had a clue last night, and no one has a clue tonight. For that matter, no one knows where the indexes are headed tomorrow. We buy on weakness, and make an educated guess on ST price direction.
ReplyDeleteRe: Nattering nabobs of negativity...redux
DeleteSubmitted by Vadym Graifer (3820 comments) on Thu, 02/07/2013 - 21:17 #117279(in reply to #117273)
To tell you the truth, I am more used to a disappointed "that's all?" look from those who find out what my trading system is, rather than seeing it called sophisticated :)
My charts are insultingly simple, I don't use technical indicators beyond simple MA and Bollinger bands, and even those are just for the visual, not for any number-expressed rules. I fully agree with Billy's response - keep it simple, keep it visual, remember that one can't know everything related to a company/stock and no one can predict the future, thus control your risk so no single loss ever takes you out of the game
Vad as a rule takes his money off the table prior to each close, doesn't he?
DeleteThe NYU guy has updated his stats for 2012: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm
ReplyDeleteWhat I find amazing is that since 1960, other than a 13 year period in the 1970's into the early 1980's when inflation was rampant and interest rates high, the earnings yield has never been higher than in 2008, 2011 and 2012.
Makes you wonder what Hussman, Grantham and the boys are smoking? Oh yeah, it's the Schiller CAPE ratio - making them miss one of the best bull market runs in a long time.
Where can I buy some of that CAPE ----?
DeleteCraig is fond of saying he couldn't care less about fundamentals as long as the charts look good. When it comes to ST positions, I couldn't care less about fundies as long as I'm buying on weakness.
ReplyDeleteChart looks like it's coiling to me. I'll be hard pressed not to buy if it gets smacked down hard tomorrow in a repeat of today.
DeleteNGas is a commodity, for crying out loud. Futes were priced 4% higher yesterday, and there were real (and presumably happy) buyers (of the actual commodity, not the freaking ETF) at that price. Prices dropped today, and buyers who locked in today are more fortunate than those who locked in yesterday. Next week, both groups may be sitting in the catbird seat. Or the woodshed. We don't know.
ReplyDeleteUntil recently, I never pictured the Nikkei as a bungee cord.
ReplyDeleteAll the world's markets are a bungee cord from my perspectice, we have to learn when it's safe to leap through the windows of opportunity?
DeleteMJNA - Noticing the price came down to within just 0.01 of the weekly 13ema, closed up 16%
ReplyDelete"No one has a freaking clue where NGas prices are headed."
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I believe they're headed up, b/c it cannot be produced at current prices as the oil companies have clearly stated. Meanwhile, demand is increasing.
Can cost of production fall? I don't expect it can appreciably, due in large part to environmental control requirements.
Maybe Mark can set us straight, last he told us was to anticipate lower prices and it seems he was correct?
FWIW....
UGA - Daily RSI(7) this yo-yo transitioned down through 70 today.
ReplyDeleteMaybe if Europe gets their needed currency relief(an opportunity to lob some euro-made goods through an export window) commodities should come off. Short term euro strength is putting the cart in front of the horse IMO, I don't know how the equities market could insist on a strong euro in a longer time horizon.
Wonder how much corporate capital is being tied up just hedging against these manipulated currency swings?
GMO - Could be molybdenum's drop below $12/lb is expressing itself in the share price this week.
ReplyDeleteDrilling equipment and haul trucks should arrive near year end, electric shovels early 2014
DeleteAfter I last exited UGAZ at like $20.3 I believe...I watched yet another spike much higher than when I sold and rather than sit there and kick myself I just decided I would look for another entry knowing damn well that it would come. The point was simple as sh*t: trendline + slightly higher lows = $3.27 or $3.28.
ReplyDeleteToday when I was confronted with a crash and saw $3.28 print on my screen I froze. I literally spent the better part of 2 hours watching and trying to gather up the courage to buy but I couldn't. Then I read that article from Dan Dicker which just spelled capitulation to me. I took a look at the chart again with the big spike down on heavy vol and tried to envision what it was like to have bought over the past few days and go through this. I imagined thousands of traders collectively cursing at their screens and wondering what the hell they were thinking. Then I spent some time scrolling the message board at First Enercast and saw nothing but sheer joy by bears and no bullish sentiment. That was good enough for me. We'll see how it all plays out. I'm pretty sure I'll be dealing with my own fair share of pain and frustration. But I do see a clear inverse head and shoulders on the weekly chart with a $4 price target. If I have the ballz to hold til then that makes it a 50%+ move for UGAZ. Unlike last time, if it spikes 7% tomorrow I probably won't sell. I really think if it's heading higher this latest move was the last fakeout before the real move higher commences.
if this nat gas bull market is the real deal (and I think it is) then like all other bull markets it will have its fair share of shakeouts and gut wrenching periods that really tests the bulls mantle. In a bull market life cycle the beginning stages are often the hardest ones to endure (think gold in 2000 or the S&P in 2010 and 2011). It's the latter stages that can oftentimes just ramp higher and higher to much disbelief. Again, look at gold. Gold bottomed at 253 in the fall of 99. It spiked almost 50% higher in 3 weeks. Then it spent the next 18 months grinding lower and lower until it made a double bottom just above the prior lows. Gold then went on to make a series of higher highs for 7 years...with lots of pullbacks along the way. I think this Nat Gas bull is no different but we shall see soon enough. We're at one of the test points. Very exciting stuff!
DeleteBulls were devastated by a return to trend line, huh? What a buncha woosies!
DeleteDo you have a link to the Dicker article. I respect that cat...
DeleteCP et al...I'm meeting with MOG tomorrow and will get his latest take....after he signs the contract.
Just don't tell him you plan on gambling with the money he hands you tomorrow!
DeleteGood point CP!
DeleteMark, sent you a little light reading on condensate.
DeleteOkay guys, I'll paraphrase from tonight's service.
ReplyDelete'Not many set-ups, listening to the database is a good thing. Out of 3000 stocks 8 are interesting. (3 shorts and five longs).
Listening to the database can keep us out of trouble.'
Does anyone here think we'll get a pullback in the yen? I'm looking at YCS on the weekly chart. It's the most extended it's ever been over the 10 week MA. Looks like it's knifing through a big resistance area from Oct 2009 through Apr 2010.
ReplyDeleteIf I use $42 as a basing price then it's up almost 40% since Oct 1, 2012. I was going to look at leaps but the options only go out to Aug 2013.
Here's Zulauf's comments and he get's an A+ on pundittracker. It looks like this was posted on Jan 20.
ReplyDeletehttp://felixzulaufblog.blogspot.com/
Zulauf: GDP has been stagnant in nominal [noninflation-adjusted] terms for 20 years. The price for generating growth is higher indebtedness. In the past 22 years, the market capitalization of Japanese stocks has fallen by 75%. The capitalization of the bond market has risen by four times. A major reallocation from bonds to stocks is beginning. I would be surprised if the Japanese stock market didn't rally 50% in the next two years. The best instrument to play this trend is a currency-hedged exchange-traded fund listed in the U.S. It is the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity fund, or DXJ. It trades for $38.53.
The ETF may be diversified and safer, but if SNE goes from 9.50(?) to 19.00 it will be 100% and I suspect faster than two years. 50% for the entire market would be good though, but subject to his GDP comment as it would be driven by debt/inflation.
DeleteGotta agree with his take on GDP though. We haven't had real organic growth in years, it's all been re-priced stagnant production with smoke and mirrors.
SNE is already $15, $19 not so far from here. We cannot claim we rode it up from $9.50?
DeleteI think it's going to retrace a bit of that. Nikkei down tonight so far. Some rode it. I wonder if Jesse is still in it?
DeleteSNE:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-07/sony-unexpectedly-posts-eighth-quarterly-loss-on-tv-demand-slump.html
CLSN - ????
ReplyDeleteDV - Not bad, eh? One of the top APPL design engineers recommended this one during an media interview last summer.
ReplyDeleteAKAM - Maybe not so bad? Could be island reversal?
ReplyDeleteVG - Came back to us, now retesting support?
ReplyDeleteYRCW earnings coming out this morning. Still holding it and hopeful there are good signs in this report. They will be hurt by Sandy, but good management would quantify these to better show how the real business is doing. I think their management is pretty good.
ReplyDeletehonestly at first glance i'm very surprised by the #'s. Q4 is their worst quarter and they had to deal with Sandy and yet they still managed to post a solid operating profit. well done. obviously the issue is they still can't post a net profit or really pare down debt. It looks like they posted a bit higher cash levels but that is related to collecting some receivables. I bet this spikes and then does it's usual retreat. Q2 is where the rubber meets the road. They will need to post a net profit that quarter. Last year they posted solid #'s in Q2 and Q3 and were close to break-even. The trend is upward though. I'm tempted to buy a little today.
DeleteThey need a some giveback from the Union and I thought they were making progress. But the Salaries Expense for 2012 is flat from 2011, so it doesn't look like anything happenned, especially considering the non-operating expense was down by over 22%.
DeleteThe would have been about break even for the year if they had no debt, so making progress. To me, it looks like if they could cut salaries by about 6%, would be profitable, so seems like that should be doable. Unions at other still-unionized truckers (like ABFS) have made concessions. Will try and listen to the 9:30 concall to see what they say about this.
"Salaries Expense for 2012 is flat from 2011"
DeleteABFS drivers accepted salary cuts? I consider it quite generous giveback when union salaries remain flat, impressive!
GGN - Waiting for gold to make it's move?
ReplyDeleteSNE - Red by almost 4% this morning to me is a bit surprising. Surely the market expected better but how since the yen has only recently lost value, Europe is still mired(must be improving?) and there hasn't been enough time for the changes to take effect?
ReplyDeleteSo what happens as Europe heals, all the bad vibes evaporate!
Usually after a bad Q like SNE had, you get the analyst downgrades, so see weakness for a few days to even weeks. Sony was down over 10% in Tokyo last night. The earnings came out after yesterday's Tokyo close but before the New York open, so we had the 5% in New York yesterday and will see more today. I'm sure if you had access to the Japan brokerages, they were downgrading their outlooks for SNE, just like here.
DeleteI find with the ADR's, it's good to also follow their real listings in their home countries. For European stocks, you can add the symbols to Yahoo Finance, but for Japan and Israel (MGIC), you need to go to the native stock exchanges.
Every once in awhile you can get some decent commentary at the Sista.
DeleteRead Geoff's this AM. It pretty much explains the currency situation.
I did notice the sudden jawboning of the Euro a couple days ago and Viola! USD halts it's decline, Yen denominated issues stall, Euro weakens.
BTW, keep your eye on SNE today. It posted bad earnings and went down in Japan, then rebounded in th U.S. ADR yesterday, then gets taken down in Japan overnight. It's possible it does this again due to currency considerations and shorts. Japan takes it down on earnings, we bid it up on currency/shorts, rinse repeat. It was interesting to watch yesterday but I was thinking about this trade last night when Asia was correcting. This is where it was at the low yesterday ($14.67) when TOF and I posted about it. It promptly rallied to over $15.
DeletePACB - Seems yesterday may have provided a decent entry, will find out today, IMO.
ReplyDeletewow. what a horrible conference call for STS. you guys should listen to it. two callers basically said the stock is a dog and they need to sell the company. looks like i'm going to take a bath on this one today. on to YRCW!
ReplyDeletecool. i sold 1/3 at $3.3...not horrible! it's the other 2/3 that scares me. then again, we're only talking about 6k shares.
DeleteI did listen, management had no answer to their questions or solutions, just status quo.
DeleteWoof, woof, holy chit!
ReplyDeleteMUX - Back to $3, I think I know what that means........
NSPH- What a joke. Trades up and down 5% in one minute. Man, I feel like I got run over by JB's roller.
ReplyDeleteIt trades very strangely, sorta like GMO but much harder to trade, wait till earnings when nothing's changed it tanks?
DeleteOffed AREX 26.14 ish
ReplyDeletetof- It looks like the date with the twin sister is working out.
ReplyDeleteNew low for the other twin.
DeleteMITK getting some pub on twitz.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Remind me why we're still bearish this one?
ReplyDeleteVE - They banged this one to $13.15 yesterday just to f___ with me.....
ReplyDeleteMy ears just popped aa a trickle of blood ran out of my nose.
ReplyDeleteMOG, take a look at FDX on the daily.
ReplyDeleteLooks like FDX is the new AAPL!!!!
DeleteMark - What's up with MITK?
ReplyDeleteOffed the rest of STS at $3.2 to $3.3.
Bought more TZOO at $21.29. I think this thing runs hard over the coming year. They are building out their own hotel book platform and the stock is cheap relative to the traffic it gets and cash flow. Would have preferred to get it at $20 but oh well.
PAL - Looks like a second bull flag forming, huh?
ReplyDeleteOh vey, gimme a break!!!!!
SWC - Shorts are gonna be forced to cover if this thing moves much higher?
ReplyDeletePrevious H&S formation is now disqualified.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't 2013 make you just wanna scream?????
RES - Man, seems pretty strong...
ReplyDeleteMark - WTF dude, stop chasing them big broads and pay attention??????
I'm biased but max frustration on Nat Gas is a move back up to $3.45 today. That's part of the reason I got in the trade.
ReplyDeletethere's this big old wedge forming on nat gas on the weekly chart. right now it's at the low point of the wedge. the high point is about $3.65. i'd take a move to there...please...
DeleteSeems like the last week is turning out to be more of a sideways consolidation to work off the overboughtness and now we are breaking to the upside. Kind of fits in with my theory that larger early year mutual fund equity contributions into equities are overriding traditional correction points.
ReplyDeleteBarrons talks about the same: http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/02/08/buy-the-morning-enjoy-the-afternoon-a-fund-flow-effect/
My worry is that it almost seems too easy.
It's possible we printed a new head today, but with Europe bottoming it seems like the market has priced in the bad news and has now moved on.
DeleteCP- Those are the only ones I can catch!
ReplyDeleteTOF- MITK, nothing I see.
Off to get a contract signed then full press on Natty!!
WLL - Okay, don't blame ya, admit to considering it once or twice as well. So about this one?
DeleteAnd be nice to MOG, sounds like a good guy!
DeleteClosed UGAZ @ 20.0x. Betting I can buy it back lower. If not, y'all can castigate me for having no ballz...
ReplyDeleteUGAZ reopened @ 19.54...
ReplyDeleteOff 19.71...
DeleteRVBD - Salman washing ashore? Island reversal?
ReplyDeleteNVDA - This sucker's gonna pop, ain't it?
ReplyDeleteSPN - Another that's been climbing as RES has.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ 19.44x...
ReplyDeleteSWC - Can't shake these (Russian?) shorts out, wonder how their stockpiles look, what the broad implications are and how far they reach?
ReplyDeleteWLL - Kinda looks like bull flag formation?
ReplyDeleteAdded UGAZ.
ReplyDeleteReturn to high? Just a theory but a return to today's high could be a good place to dhort b/c we should soften into close in order to cause confusion prior to Monday's upside continuation.
ReplyDeleteNG - Will natty return to it's long term mean? F'n-A it will, just right now it must remain low and plentiful enough in order to hook the public line and sinker into insisting on LT commitments?
ReplyDeleteJust a theory.....
I've clearly been wrong on this but it wouldn't surprise me to see the market tank today into the close, hit 1,475 on monday and then do a major reversal to new highs. in fact, by being long UGAZ in a way i'm positioned for this.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 5 more March KOLD puts, this time $26 at $2.
ReplyDeleteAdded UGAZ at $19.25. Here comes $3.40. Yes, I'm a used car salesman.
ReplyDeleteRead that it could be the $30+ billion from the Dell buyout and now Virgin Media could be supporting the market as the arb money flows in and the long term money moves to other stocks. Plus options expiration next week tends to extend a trend. Because of these, could have a good run into next Friday.
ReplyDeleteSold at $14.88 my 500 shares of SNE that I bought at $15.08. So far it is only a $100 loss, but I would be much more comfortable holding SNE if I saw that it holds yesterday's spike low for a day or two. Even if it would mean that I will have to re-enter at a higher price...
ReplyDeletePipe - All these new gas and oil wells are gonna need a few feet of pipe with fittings, valves, pumps and such, aren't they?
ReplyDeleteThis stuff isn't exactly free, right? So who's the wal-mart of oilfield supplies, condiments, trinkets, possibles, and associated sundries?
Some of that stuff if not a lot of it will need to be corrosion resistant, plastic might work in many cases but I bet there should be at least a tiny demand for stainless materials such as those offered by HAYN?
DeleteHey guys- Just noticed something VERY rare.
ReplyDelete-As I discuss throughout "The Book", I want to see multiple "tight" weekly closes before a big trend emerges.
-We are on pace to have 3 weekly VIX closes right around 12.95. I'm not sure if this has ever happened.
-My guess is a trend emerges very soon.
Given VIX is in the 12's(!%!?), I would find it hard to believe the trend will be down....
Just a heads up.
Jesse
Nice SHORT notice!
DeleteSPX - comments from 61p8
ReplyDeletePeter Ghostine @PeterGhostine
$SPX > Tom DeMark weekly countdown and my notes. http://stks.co/t2BK
http://charts.61point8.com/20130208-SPX-TD.png
SPX - But there is an Ending-Diagonal EWP Draw to ~1528...
DeleteAndrea Calissano @thewavetrading
$SPX: The Ending Diagonal remains a frontrunner #spx #elliottwave pic.twitter.com/9HCfKTOf
https://twitter.com/thewavetrading/status/299286233086050305/photo/1
Sold ANAD 2.61
ReplyDeleteClosed the last UGAZ @ 19.23.
ReplyDeleteGive it 2-3 months and Nat Gas will be at $4 again.
DeleteRight after Congress places orders with their brokers.
DeleteVXX 23ish long starter/small
ReplyDeleteOk looking at VIX in conjunction with Jesse tight 3 wkly closes. Looking back 10 years wkly slow stochastic (SS) setting of 5,3 has turned up and is at 13.53. SS setting 14,3 is lifting 4.30. The 5,3 gives a faster turn signal. So probability wise off of 10 year view decent entry, the fly is if we were to go sideways.
Combine with Demark SP chart (thanks Kyle) gives us another view that we are extended and due. Looking at SS 14,3 it reads 99.66, extreme! Can it stay extreme? yes .
You could use a stop on SP for VXX anywhere from 1528 upto 1550 depending on preference.
Even though S&P is making a new high today, the high-yield credit chart is not looking hot at all (HYG). So sticking with VXX/TVIX might be a good idea...
ReplyDeletePicked up 500 VXX @23
DeleteThe high yielders (HYG) have become expensive relative to other bonds over the last several months and should correct. All that is holding them up I think are the yield chasers.
DeleteTLT (20 year treasuries) peaked in July, LQD (High grade bonds) in October, but the high-yielders (HYG) continued up into the end of January.
See MCHP, FAF
DeleteBought a starter position in PACB of 500 shares now. Placed a buy stop limit for 1K more shares at $3.45/$3.50 -- if it gets there, then the pullback will most likely be over.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, sold my 500 shares and canceled my buy stop limit order. I read the company's latest conference call, saw that their revenue guidance for 2013 is the same as for 2012, when they lost $70M, and I just could not figure out how they were planning to become profitable. I would rather keep the little cash I have available to invest in TC once it breaks above $4.50, since TC has a gold mine coming to production in 4Q2013, which will make them very profitable.
DeleteBRKR instead?
DeleteMJNA - Still smokin'
ReplyDeleteDon't overdo it, bro. It tends to dull the senses after awhile.
DeleteOur weekly installment of succinct summation of the week’s events for February 8 2013:
ReplyDeletePositives:
1) Rally continues, with S&P 500 hitting highest levels since December 2007
2) Institute for Supply Management said services sector index was 55.2 last month.
3) European Central Bank left its main lending unchanged at 0.75%
4) Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000
5) MBA said refi apps rose 3.5% and purchase apps were up 2.2% as maybe in part due to fence sitter effect as mortgage rates rise to 3.72% from 3.67%, the highest since Sept.
6) Market internals look strong with small caps and transports breaking out to all time highs.
7) Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose in December for a 5th straight month; Non-revolving credit surged by the most in 11 years. Revolving debt (like credit cards), fell by $3.6 billion, the most since July.
8) The country’s trade gap narrowed to $38.5 billion in December: Rise in exports + lower imports of oil pushed the U.S. trade deficit to its narrowest point in three years;
9) Newspapers are Not dead yet: For the past 6 out of the last 7 quarters, NYT had upside surprise;
10) The CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year. This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years.
11) 18 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters posted 5.8% growth in January same-store sales;
Negatives:
1) Commerce Dept said factory orders rose by 1.8% in December, below 2.3% consensus
2) New orders index, a forward-looking measure, was at its lowest since April 2012
3) With S&P 500 trading near multi-year highs, individual investors are becoming increasingly bearish. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment dropped from 48.04% down to 42.77%. Sentiment has now dropped ~10% past 2 weeks.
4) Non-Farm Labor Productivity fell by a seasonally adjusted 2% in Q4, according to BLS
5) Average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.555. Gasoline prices have climbed every day for the past 21 days.(source: AAA)
6) Berlusconi is accused of dangerous propoganda, with 3 weeks to go in the Italian elections. Bond yields nearing 6 week high.
7) Congressional Budget Office assumes unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014, and GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013.
8) January Non Defense Capital Goods ex-aircraft — the core CapEx component of Durable Goods — was revised to a decline of .3% vs the 1st read of up .2%.
9) From a Contrarian perspective standpoint, Institutional Investor had Bullish newsletter writers on the rise to 54.7 while Bears fell to 21.1. The spread between the two has not been this wide since June ’11 and the late 2011 Summer 18% correction.
I'd say #2 under the negatives is actually a positive.
Deletetraded in an out of sds for a small loss. i had a pretty tight stop on it but there wasn't much there either way and I didn't want to take it on over the weekend.
ReplyDeletebot 200 shares of slv after hours at 30.40, just a feeling or more likely influenced from some of my readings. after thinking about it i would have probably preferred to just buy some jan 14 calls on it. Maybe I'll do that next week.
i would have bot some vxx at the close if i didn't already have 500 underwater shares.
i may buy some RNF next week. I sold that one way too early in the low 40's.
If I were the market and I wanted to frustrate the most peeps, I think I'd just start grinding up again. Very shallow pullbacks, trade through S&P 1525, get peeps convinced that we're going MUCH higher and then break down around 1575-1600 or so. It seems like I'm hearing lots of peeps calling for a minor correction these days. Protection is so cheap though that I would think the big money is hedged against any major correction.
WTIC - I plan on shorting oil somewhere over $100
ReplyDelete"navy delays overhaul of aircraft carrier uss abraham lincoln due to budget concerns"
ReplyDeleteUnless otherwise specified, all contracts are issued to Northrop Grumman’s Newport News (now Huntington Ingalls Industries) shipyard in Newport News, VA by the Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC.
RDN - Earnings Mon. pre-market
ReplyDelete