"Though unseen in public since cancer surgery two months ago in Cuba, government ministers said Chavez personally ordered the fifth devaluation of the bolivar in a decade of socialist economics in the OPEC nation - this time by 32 percent."
Considering devaluation is all the rage and prices appear boundless, will Germany's steadfast opposition to currency devaluation be the cause of an European depression or will they eventually join the fray?
"The CBO is now confirming (what I have been saying for many years) that SS is going to be rapidly increasing its annual cash deficit. It will hit $75b in 2013. It will be $225 b in a decade. After that it goes ballistic. Every penny of these deficits must be financed by issuing more Debt to the Public."
Here Bruce cites some costs for some major military equipment (aircraft carriers, F18 fighters, B1 bombers, tanks, drones, missiles, etc.) and calculates how frequently US could buy that equipment with the money it will be borrowing every year to pay out SS:
http://brucekrasting.com/on-the-numbers/
Here is a quote: "We could probably use a few more of these B1 bombers. They must be a blast to fly. They are very expensive, each one costs about two hours of the tab for SS."
The US military budget is reported to be $800B/year, just shy of deficit growth?
I'm anticipating huge cuts. Assuming I'm correct, these should be good short targets? Already military contractors are looking for diversification, HII is going into the oil services business with their Louisiana facility. Oil drilling rigs are on the top of their list, not sure if they can compete with China though, absent some kind of maritime protectionism law.
"- Inflation is not going to be an issue. Not too cold, not too hot – the CPI will average less than 2% for well into the 2020’s. No chance of inflation picking up – it’s silly to worry about inflation risks – really, it’s a non issue for at least a decade."
How can inflation be an issue absent wage inflation (rise of the robots = buy automation engineering and production firms)?
we're thinking about a week at disneyland after school is out. My guess is we would stay on the property. Looks like I have a few airport choices to make though. We did this once 5 years ago and the only thing I remember was that AAA didn't give us the packet with all the tickets in it. They got it straightened out after a 2.5 hour delay at the park.
The nearest airport would be Orange County. My oldest used to fly to school and back home using John Wayne. Much cleaner than LAX, and just minutes from Anaheim.
Now we are thinking we might pull the oldest out of school for a couple of days and make it a long weekend trip. Fly in on a Wed night, leave on Sun.
I don't think the youngest would be too young. She always likes to go and do things so I'm thinking she would like doing most of the kid rides. We took the oldest there when she was 5 and it was a big mistake. She's a wallflower and very shy. She only rode 4 rides. Now I remember I was ready to kill her. It's amazing how opposite they can be.
BAS - This oil services company reports fairly soon, located in Midland, West Tx. If you've ever been to Midland, the smell of hydrocarbons is probably still lingering in your nostrils.
Out working up a sweat while splitting wood today wearing my Carhartts with an Air Jordan sleeveless shirt, the fashion police paid a visit to inform me I was violating local ordinance 01812: "Excessive display of side-boob".
Does this place me up there somewhere with the blue-marbles club?
Secondarily, we need to develop our own metric: Overall investor worry level (OWL): 73%
And worry distribution table (WDT)
I think if we had something like this, we wouldn't have anything to worry about. Or at least we would know whether we were worrying enough and correctly.
"Russian security forces have discovered that Obama is about to unleash "death squads" across America to assassinate defenders of the Second Amendment."
I read that oil production increases aren't keeping pace with global growth and the EIA report includes natty production in the oil production figures (as equivalents), which is hiding the real picture.
Propylene production from natty is screaming, apparently (PDH now, and later, EPD)
Staying long, hedged with VXX for short term.
ReplyDeleteFully invested?
Delete75%
Deletebut the strings are short
I've never understood hedging. Why not just reduce your long exposure to 50% instead of 75%...And yes, I do realize the VIX is a different animal.
DeleteHedging is good if you think your hedge is more likely to gain than your hedged position is likely to lose.
DeleteBecause I have longer term positions in the LONG column and I believe the very short term trend to be down. Easy as that.
DeleteWow, I guess LNKD is a super charged AMZN.
ReplyDeleteThe SCTY option remains!!! ;)
DeleteWPRT - Seems to have lifted past couple of sessions, earnings 3/1?
ReplyDeleteRES - Looking around and finding plenty of stocks that have doubled off the bottom, can RES triple?
ReplyDeleteAt some point profit taking kicks in, that's when shorts jump on ship in an effort to coax them.
ReplyDeleteSo in this case, where does those new gains go, stocks like WPRT and REDF(stellar earnings)?
Deletewhere do
DeleteGMO - Is it possible recent weakness is a result of knock-on(sympathy) effect associated with MCP?
ReplyDeleteVenezuela devalues 32%
ReplyDelete"Though unseen in public since cancer surgery two months ago in Cuba, government ministers said Chavez personally ordered the fifth devaluation of the bolivar in a decade of socialist economics in the OPEC nation - this time by 32 percent."
Considering devaluation is all the rage and prices appear boundless, will Germany's steadfast opposition to currency devaluation be the cause of an European depression or will they eventually join the fray?
TOF - I just bought one of these and was thinking these might be right down your alley:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nova68.com/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Product_Code=BB23B
cool!
DeleteActually, I purchased the 33 instead of the 23, it's a bit taller so the working height is better.
Deletehttp://www.nova68.com/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=nova68&Product_Code=BOBY33&Category_Code=116
Plan on attaching a pivoting work light to it so I can see well.
That is neat.
Deletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/43526382/Pacific_BiosciencesmdashA_Spec_Stock_Worth_the_Risk
ReplyDeleteThis was from a little less than 2 years ago when PACB was over $10.
Here's a 2001 Forbes article re Celera Genomics (CRA), the company my brother's bud had his 401(k) invested in.
Deletehttp://www.forbes.com/2001/04/11/0411sf.html
holy cow that thing was a rocket. went from $7 to $276 in eight months back in the bubble. Crazy man.
DeleteThe best part of the Cramer interview is the opening statement: 'In an ugly market, you need some speculative stocks to keep you interested.'
DeleteAmen, bro.
TVIX - Tempting, huh?
ReplyDeleteThat's what sirens do. TZA, for instance.
DeleteFrom Bruce Krasting:
ReplyDelete"The CBO is now confirming (what I have been saying for many years) that SS is going to be rapidly increasing its annual cash deficit. It will hit $75b in 2013. It will be $225 b in a decade. After that it goes ballistic. Every penny of these deficits must be financed by issuing more Debt to the Public."
Here Bruce cites some costs for some major military equipment (aircraft carriers, F18 fighters, B1 bombers, tanks, drones, missiles, etc.) and calculates how frequently US could buy that equipment with the money it will be borrowing every year to pay out SS:
http://brucekrasting.com/on-the-numbers/
Here is a quote: "We could probably use a few more of these B1 bombers. They must be a blast to fly. They are very expensive, each one costs about two hours of the tab for SS."
Here is his analysis of the latest CBO report:
Deletehttp://brucekrasting.com/cbo-everything-is-going-to-be-really-really-great/
The US military budget is reported to be $800B/year, just shy of deficit growth?
DeleteI'm anticipating huge cuts. Assuming I'm correct, these should be good short targets? Already military contractors are looking for diversification, HII is going into the oil services business with their Louisiana facility. Oil drilling rigs are on the top of their list, not sure if they can compete with China though, absent some kind of maritime protectionism law.
"- Inflation is not going to be an issue. Not too cold, not too hot – the CPI will average less than 2% for well into the 2020’s. No chance of inflation picking up – it’s silly to worry about inflation risks – really, it’s a non issue for at least a decade."
DeleteHow can inflation be an issue absent wage inflation (rise of the robots = buy automation engineering and production firms)?
Let's also not forget about the US becoming more energy independent, oil imports have fallen, no?
Deletewe're thinking about a week at disneyland after school is out. My guess is we would stay on the property. Looks like I have a few airport choices to make though. We did this once 5 years ago and the only thing I remember was that AAA didn't give us the packet with all the tickets in it. They got it straightened out after a 2.5 hour delay at the park.
ReplyDeleteThe nearest airport would be Orange County. My oldest used to fly to school and back home using John Wayne. Much cleaner than LAX, and just minutes from Anaheim.
DeletePort, how old are your kids?
Deleteages 10 and 4.
DeleteNow we are thinking we might pull the oldest out of school for a couple of days and make it a long weekend trip. Fly in on a Wed night, leave on Sun.
I don't think the youngest would be too young. She always likes to go and do things so I'm thinking she would like doing most of the kid rides. We took the oldest there when she was 5 and it was a big mistake. She's a wallflower and very shy. She only rode 4 rides. Now I remember I was ready to kill her. It's amazing how opposite they can be.
OIS vs RES - RES has already begun it's move, OIS has lagged but can/will it catch up?
ReplyDeleteFET and FET have lagged similarly.
DeleteLarge capital expenditure coming to Permian and Williston:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-transcript-interview-eli-221600539.html
FET and OIS
DeleteSo if large capital expenditure is coming, wouldn't that mean explorers will likely spend more than they earn for next next couple of quarters?
DeleteI suppose the explorers might have an opportunity to cash out on their properties, but which ones are likely to be bought and at what price?
PDH - Should be good one to watch, since earnings were out a couple days ago.
ReplyDeleteEPD looks pretty strong, in this sector.
DeleteFor anyone interested in YRCW, good writeup at: http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/02/10/yrc-worldwide/
ReplyDeletefunny i was reading through the earnings last night and i also read this guys posts last week (before earnings).
DeleteBAS - This oil services company reports fairly soon, located in Midland, West Tx. If you've ever been to Midland, the smell of hydrocarbons is probably still lingering in your nostrils.
ReplyDeleteOut working up a sweat while splitting wood today wearing my Carhartts with an Air Jordan sleeveless shirt, the fashion police paid a visit to inform me I was violating local ordinance 01812: "Excessive display of side-boob".
ReplyDeleteDoes this place me up there somewhere with the blue-marbles club?
Secondarily, we need to develop our own metric: Overall investor worry level (OWL): 73%
And worry distribution table (WDT)
I think if we had something like this, we wouldn't have anything to worry about.
Or at least we would know whether we were worrying enough and correctly.
Sidelined pressure is building here...
ReplyDeleteWhere is here, in RSI distribution zone?
DeleteTums or gas-ex? ;)
Beer soon.
DeleteSpeaking of clubs, are these guys bringing sticks and stones with them for their Feb.17 DC mall protest?
ReplyDelete"Jan. 25, 2013 3:11 AM PST - Sierra Club Turns to Civil Disobedience to Stop Keystone Pipeline"
The wal-mart of weed:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/01/wegrow-dhar-mann-derek-peterson
Here's one for you TOF....ECAU
ReplyDelete"Russian security forces have discovered that Obama is about to unleash "death squads" across America to assassinate defenders of the Second Amendment."
ReplyDeleteTAXI - You couldn't have possibly lost, even on this one.
ReplyDeleteThankfully, I broke even on NSPH.........
The Lunar New Year has shut down all meaningful trading activity until the early morning hours. I'll see y'all then.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we should start a cannabis ETF?
ReplyDeleteThis way we could diversify using the best companies with the best prospects.
People are going to get very wealthy on investments in this industry.
Cannibis ETF would likely stunt producer performance, or is this phenomenon strictly isolated to PM producers? ;)
Delete$WTIC - Oil looks like it's headed down already, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteMUX - Kinda looks like a buy, but I don't think I would if oil keeps creeping down.
ReplyDeleteoil is one of the biggest costs for the miners...
Delete"Dude, where's my cheap gas(oline)"
DeleteI read that oil production increases aren't keeping pace with global growth and the EIA report includes natty production in the oil production figures (as equivalents), which is hiding the real picture.
Propylene production from natty is screaming, apparently (PDH now, and later, EPD)
COOL is setting up.
ReplyDeleteGood find! ;)
DeleteRDN - Earnings - "Loss widens"
ReplyDeleteIs this where the trend reverses, or just a temporary setback?
Not good for IMH and PHH?
DeleteMicro gyroscopes?
ReplyDeleteWhat was that ticker for the tiny gyroscopes, these might spin out of control if the gaming industry kicks into overdrive?
http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/02/11/sp-500-reverse-pennant/
ReplyDeletePAL - Hoping this one tries to raise $30M soon and market corrects, perfect storm?
ReplyDeleteTrap door for HEK
ReplyDeleteor perhaps a necessary drop to get enough bulls off the train?
DeleteEarnings are Wed. I believe. I'll listen to the call.
DeleteNSPH's are Wed. also.
Delete