It's hard to believe this week will mark the 4th anniversary of the latest bull run. We all recall early March 2009. That's when Mark and I opened positions in TCK under 4/share.
Well, maybe the miners will again rise from the dead, this time against the backdrop of broader market highs.
It's still possible to pick up TCK at about half its 2-yr high.
ReplyDeleteGood observation. Miles and miles of empty cities in China, might be awhile before Chinese demand for copper and steel rebound?
DeleteIs this THE BIGGEST SHORT?
DeleteElephino!
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/danger-as-stock-market-greedometer-flashes-red-2013-02-28?link=home_carousel
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'.
i agree it's not as good of a time to invest now vs say even 1 year ago...however, let's keep in mind that this handy dandy indicator has only been back tested for a whopping 13 year period that consisted of violent swings. is a sample size of such short duration really reliable? wasn't that the problem with ABS and MBS - the testing period only took into account rising home values? even guys like Lakshman Achutan, who apparently developed a fool proof system of calling recessions, has been wrong as he's calling for an imminent recession for 18 months now. i want to know what this indicator was saying in 1906, 1928, 1937, etc...
Delete'The reality of blogging, Sat., Apr. 7, 2007, 12:43 PM. I regret to inform my readers that there has been a loss of life in our family – not my family, but ours, yours and mine. You knew him as “tacktician” – clearly a sailor – and I .... I have over 100000 readers in over 140 countries, but I had spotted Al as being one of the few talents who might help the community that has sprung up around me. I am saddened that he made the ultimate decision to no longer help people.'
ReplyDeleteI never rememnered that, thanks for finding. It always very sad when people decide that that's there only way out. No one for sure knows what's on the other side.
DeleteSorta like trading the future, but certaninly life is worth living. I want Cheapy to choose life. You can come back dude.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCYC+Interactive#symbol=pcyc;range=20090518,20130303;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
ReplyDeleteHoly shit look at this chart. up 7,000% in less than 4 years. there are stocks out there right now that will do a move like this over the next 4 years. the question of course is which ones?
that alone should keep people interested in markets and interested in the possibility of finding the next gem. it's like a great big old puzzle that you're trying to figure out and the joy of that should, in my opinion, preclude people from ever considering the possibility of taking one's life over bad investments. i've lost all of my money twice in the market. granted it was when i didn't have a family depending upon me and it was when i knew far less about the markets. but i have always had faith that things work out well in the end and that every misstep in life is an opportunity to learn from. for me as far as investing went i realized that my mistakes were entirely because of options and after a lot of searching for answers i swallowed my pride and admitted defeat...i chose to just exclude them from my trading accounts (ok, i do have one tiny account (i.e., 1% of my assets) that allows it just so i can try it once in a while and reinforce how smart of a move it was to exclude them). there's nothing wrong with not being good at something. we all have strengths and weaknesses.
plus, there's so much to enjoy about life outside of the markets. we should all strive to be well rounded and have outlets other than the markets. it's hard to remember this when you're knee deep in a shitty trade/investment...thats why having an outlet like spending time with your kids or playing sports or have a side business or hobby is so important. it helps you alleviate any stress associated with the markets. to me the market really is nothing more than a game. i really do love the idea of searching for those multi baggers like the PCYC example above. to be able to say you bought and held something like that for a 10 bagger or more is so cool.
i think i mentioned this before but my dad used to work for Toll Brothers and retired literally right before it all came crashing down in early 2007. in 2004 or 2005 my dad was buying groceries at a store in New Jersey and he had a Toll Brothers hat on and some guy came up to him in the parking lot and was really excited and said "do you work for Toll Brothers?". "Yeah, why?" my dad replied. "Oh you guys are the best. I put all of my money in your stock in 1990 because i bought one of your homes and I really liked the work you guys did. My friends and family thought I was nuts. Well I just sold it all and retired off the money I made." it's stories like that that are really cool. look at that chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=tol#symbol=tol;range=19900518,20050816;compare=;indicator=dividend+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
again, it's stories like this that give me my enthusiasm for the markets. you can have a few really shitty years but all it takes is a little luck and some good digging and you can find stocks like these that completely reverse prior losses.
anyway, gotta go grab some lunch. hope you guys are having a great weekend.
Maybe not quite as challenging as finding a needle in a haystack, either. Although, I'm more familiar with which tools are effective when searching for a needle.
DeleteXIN - Take a peak at this chart!!!
ReplyDeleteI like the above average volumes on the up days over the last week. But then I also agree with Mark's comment on NOAH, it's China which would keep my positions sizes smaller.
Delete60 minutes show last night showed "miles and miles" of ghost cities, the effect might prove interesting.
DeleteAfter much discussion, we're putting the Disney trip on hold till next year. I like the Orange County airport choice though. One of my coworkers suggested spending 2 or 3 days at Disney then spending a couple of days at the San Diego zoo. We'll see. Like bid Dave says, one day at a time.
ReplyDeleteYes, the SD Zoo is a very good one. Or it was, decades ago.
DeleteSD Zoo is awesome. We have year passes which are almost the same price as day passes. Great place to visit with kids. Or adults that act like kids.
DeleteMRK - About to break to the upside?
ReplyDeleteAIDS cured in young children - This sounds like good news.
ReplyDeleteVG - Friday produced a hammer, that's supposed to be a positive event, right?
ReplyDeleteINTC - 12mo PO is $28
ReplyDeleteStopped out of BIDU at $90.8. Long BYD at $6.94.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe the carnage continues.
ReplyDeleteShanghai -3.65% last night. Does that count for anything?
ReplyDeleteSomething about five revised real estate rules supposed to cool market?
DeleteFIO - I know this one's a POS and I can't argue that, but it lifted all last week and my broker has an PO of $24 on it, FWIW.
ReplyDeleteTCK - PO is $39
Silver - I think if silver falls under $14, I'll be forced to try my hand with a PM miner again. Period.
ReplyDeleteVE - How 'bout that jump?
ReplyDeleteCTIC - Do we like this chart? Ugh...
ABFS - 12mo PO is $14
CNW - PO is $32
SAIA - Wow, some kinda chart. No coverage.
YRCW - No coverage still, of course. What's the liquidation value of this one, any idea?
YRCW liquidation value right now is negative. Balance sheet is a mess. It's all about operating leverage and a turnaround in operations.
Delete"Chart Talk: US set up for strength vs. the rest of the world; Net Tabs
ReplyDelete15 minutes ago
See the report for the 90-day breakouts and 90-day breakdowns screens with focus charts.
Technical Analysis
Download PDF Report (812kb) »
Crosstex Energy, L.P.: Slight 4Q12 beat, no change to thesis; reiterate Buy
3/4/2013 3:54 PM
Natural Gas-Pipelines
DPM - DCP Midstream Partners LP: 4Q12 beat; another Eagle Ford drop, reiterate Buy
HESS - Win-win for shareholders"
Crosstex po raised to $19 from $14.... hmm.....
DeleteBALT is definitely telling us something IMO. again, it's the most tied to the baltic dry index and it's breaking out of a basing pattern. DSX already made its move out of the base and would confirm it on a move over $10.2.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index is actually starting to move up out of the 750 level it was stuck in for so long...
Holy crap, I looked earlier and it was red. This is shocking the poop outta me, even the great rotation hasn't begun and PE's are lookin' pricey for a change. Just like miner PE's were at the recent top a couple years ago.
DeleteTrying SLW @ 30.89...
ReplyDeleteMTG - Wow. "Mortgage Insurance Industry Benefitting From a Steadily Improving Housing Market in 2013 Marketwire +11.35%" No coverage
ReplyDeleteDRWI - This is one I was watching long ago, lost track. I guess it turned out to be a POS.....
AUMN @ 2.42...
ReplyDeleteCRNT - Looks cheap? P/S is .35
ReplyDeleteAdded GDXJ @ 15.17...
ReplyDeleteYRCW - This chart just doesn't scare me, looks like an opportunity. And $6 seems to be holding.....
ReplyDeleteMUX - Damn, another 5% haircut... Is the sector selling off due to lack of fear factor?
AG - First majestic silver PO remains $25....
ReplyDeleteTough market, can't conclude PM's are selling off due to lack of fear?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJO - Is this one about to pull a bean from an elephant pie?
DeleteIDK. Looks like a reverse Jarvis, slide, build a box, slide, build a box...
DeleteI'd like it to get a good cross of the MA's with some air and re-base.
Sorry, I meant pea instead of bean. My internal skeptic voice confuses.....
DeletePCP - 12mo PO is $240.... ~30% gain from here.
ReplyDeleteGas turbines - "Precision Castparts (PCP) is the leading manufacturer of complex metal castings and forgings for aerospace and industrial gas turbine applications."
DeleteAn unexpected drop in the miners today in the face of flat gld and slv. This seems like a forced selling of some kind, just like in October 2008. AUMN is down 13% now! Once the forced liquidation starts, it can go arbitrarily long, until the required number of assets are sold. The mere fact that it is unreasonable doesn't mean that it will stop now. I am glad that I am out of margin now, and I would like to thank ETrade for selling a part of my AUMN at $2.90. :)
ReplyDeleteHII - Raised PO to $40, from $30, worked too hard to bury previous $30 estimate, IMO. "Raising PO to $40 from $30; reiterate Underperform"
ReplyDeleteNot till the second paragraph do they admit low-balling the estimate, probably still low-balling? This is no fly-by night company, and property prices in the area have stabilized recently (my cheapo beach house search has dried up) even in the face of "budget cuts".
Okay, I'll keep an eye on it...
Jesse's stock of the day is BTU.
ReplyDeleteHe likes those plung rebuilding projects.
UNG is playing nice.
Seems like just trading against the trend to me. It's still possible to make money I suppose, on dead cat bounces and such, knife catching stuff for pointy-hat magicians. Get it wrong and quickly have your azz handed to you.
DeleteI have no idea (yet) what is going on with Goggle chrome on my machino. Won't let me post to the blog, something about setting cookies, so I'm F'ing around in MS IE9. At least it's working.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's your cheapo machino! Mexican computer, LOL! ;)
DeleteNo te gusta mi máquina?
DeleteSu machina es mucho gadawaho.
DeleteNo comprende 'gadawaho'.
DeleteAnd so SPX turns green as if to retest high..... f'n schizoid embolism.
ReplyDeleteMy buy stop limit on SNE was triggered this morning at $15.39. I was all out of cash, so I had to buy it on margin. Since I have now decided to trade on margin only with stops, I just placed a sell stop limit at $15.2/$15 (just below today's low). Let's see how this unfolds...
ReplyDeletejust scrolled around all the major financial sites: Yahoo Finance, Marketwatch.com, CNBC.com, Bloomberg.com. None of them have a headline about how the DJIA is withing 40 points of all time highs. And we're supposed to believe that sentiment is excessively bullish?
ReplyDeleteSentiment is relative to whatever fits the need, seems like. I could have three characterized lists of 15 people each and do about as well depending on what I want you to believe?
DeleteAGO - Another $1 swing day, crazy shtuff.
ReplyDeleteFanuc - (FANUY?) This is the type of company I have an interest in, factory automation. Not sure it's really even trading in the US, FANUY OTC?
ReplyDeleteJust can't trade these Japanese industrial stocks from here?....
SLW/AUMN/GDXJ all off @ 30.1x (no typo)/ 2.4x/ 15.0x.
ReplyDelete-0.26% today, which is pretty good given the state of miners.
DeleteHXM - Home builder with PE of 4.42..... Further room for downside?
ReplyDeleteSo I signed up to follow Jesse on twitter and I get an email he's following me. Not THAT is F'ed up right there....
ReplyDeleteJesse who .......
DeleteMaybe he's just trying to find out who keeps taking the other side of his trades?
Deleteok so I know I'm going to jinx myself with this but I have seen these higher risk companies go absolutely ape shit over a one to two week time frame, examples include SPWR, HGSH, CZR, MTG, OWW...i wonder if BYD will be in the same boat. it seems that as soon as a stock gets into the traders wheel house there is no limit to the heights that they can drive it.
ReplyDeletei sure hope they do this to BYD.
wow just read this:
ReplyDeleteUS Casino Trade Group Says PokerStars Broke Gambling Laws.
What does this mean? well, PokerStars owns about 40% of the online poker market share. If they are forced to shut down or get out of the US market then all competitors will benefit.
That would be my expectation. Today's +14% kinda confirms it, don't ya think? Shorts coughing up a lung on that one. And my broker flipped regional gaming the bird Jan 28th.....
DeleteLOL, here's what they said at the time, did they give up too easily?:
Delete"Something is wrong with regional gaming
Since October, we have been noting and highlighting a material slowdown in
regional gaming trends. The trends appear to be materially worse, with total sales
dropping from +6% through Q3 to +1% in Q4. Same-store trends are materially
worse, falling from +2% in Q3 to -4% in Q4. With the payroll tax hike only hitting
now, and most other sub-sectors of consumer not seeing the same pressure, we
have to ask – what is wrong with gaming all of a sudden?
Sandy, calendar, fiscal cliff don’t seem to explain it
Excuses we hear are Hurricane Sandy (and its impact on Atlantic City), a weak
calendar in December, and consumer fears around the fiscal cliff. The problem is
these issues don’t seem to correlate with consumer behavior we are seeing out of
other core categories like retail sales and restaurant sales, both of which were
fairly resilient in Q4. Falling consumer debt levels, improving housing sentiment
and the stock market have all boosted confidence, except for regional gaming."
KEG - This is C&H, right?
ReplyDeleteWhat is Jesse's twitter name? I always forget it.
ReplyDeletejesse stine
Delete@InsiderBuySS
Got my WATG securities litigation letter in the main today.
ReplyDelete...mail today.
DeleteThat means I'll also get one. :)
DeleteOur enjoyment of life is very relativistic.
ReplyDeleteThere is a parable in Russian about a Jewish guy who tells a rabbi this his life is totally intolerable: a small apartment, lots of children constantly screaming, a nagging wife, her mother-in-law -- a total mess. Rabbi asks him if he has a goat, and the guy says yes. Then rabbi tells him to bring that goat into the apartment. The guy is totally bewildered by this advice, but he follows it. A week later he comes to visit the rabbi again and tells him that his life became a real hell -- in addition to all the problems he had before, the goad is running around, pissing and shitting in the apartment, hitting people with horns, etc. The rabbi then tells him to take the goat out of the apartment. The next day the guy comes to visit rabbi with a big smile on his face. He says: "Rabbi, my life feels like heaven now." :))
If I were a newcomer to the market who went all-in on the gold miners after the QE3 announcement in October, I would probably be totally devastated after today's action. However, after being in margin for the past year and having closed that margin two weeks ago with a forced selling of AUMN at $2.90, I am a totally happy camper now. I don't have to worry about margin calls now, and I have some buying power left for the day when the miners will launch a major rebound rally. Besides, I have $15K coming to me soon in the form of IRS tax refund, and another $10K coming in early April in the form of my company's ESPP. I am planning to deploy that money at the bottom WITH A STOP, and if I am wrong about the bottom, I'll take a small hit, retain most of the money, and will try another time, until I NAIL THE BOTTOM.
T3d was totally right saying that if I lose all my chips, I cannot play. But as long as I have some chips, I can play!
david - why not focus those remaining moneys on just plays that are working now? there are plenty of them out there. wait for sharp pullbacks in the ones that are working. look at the move in Z for the past week (up 24% from lows on pullback). this was AFTER it doubled from $24 to $48.
DeleteTOF, I am already following your advice. :) I bought 1K shares of SNE today at $15.39 and placed a sell stop at $15.2...
DeleteSPX - 61p8's current Harmonic EW draw ...
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130304-SPX-Weekly.png
errr, we go up first then down? or we just go down?
DeleteBelieve it's UP first (1567+) then DOWN
DeleteTwo coworkers told me about the sad shape of China today based on a 60 min show they watched. Maybe its time for FCX to turn around and go the other way? That doesn't match the chart Kyle pointed out though.
ReplyDeleteI agree and that is honestly the first thought I had last night when I was watching the show...i.e., how to profit from negative sentiment.
DeleteNOAH?
DeleteNatty - cash today was trading over April by about .07 or so. I wasn't watching very close but it feels like it has been awhile since that happened.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteRobot is long again, at 1520. We might reach 1530 tomorrow for more distribution before turning back down?
ReplyDelete