I conducted a survey at the sister site. At least, to the extent possible. What's the site lingo, vertical?
'How many of you are still vertical? Let's see a show of hands! OK, I see one over there, and one in the back. Sir, you're pumping your fist! I see, you shorted the miners. Anyone else? OK, I see a few of you raising empty glasses! Alright, look. I can see none of you are physically vertical. We'll make sure the waitstaff get to you in a minute. Anyone else? Right, that's funny- let's define vertical as being able to stand up without assistance! OK. We'll call cabs for the rest of you.'
It's a good thing it was a virtual survey. I don't think it's possible to call 139,997 cabs.
ReplyDeleteAnd this is on a day spot prices closed up?
ReplyDeletef*ckin a man. that is some rough trading in that arena.
ReplyDeleteheads up: NOK is coming right into an obvious area of support. $3.4 (or $3.25 on close) was the prior resistance area. I think scaling in RIGHT HERE makes a ton of sense from a risk-reward setup.
FCX -- port2015 ... believe we might get a shot at FCX below 30, perhaps mid-20's or below ...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/710dF47p
PDAC mining show in Toronto this week. 30,000 people expected.
ReplyDeleteThis show often marks an intermediate top in the miners as publicity and hype are full bore this week.
Might head down as I still own that mine drilling stock and they have a booth and would also be interesting to get a read on sentiment.
2nd_ave -- I don't think public sentiment is a good indicator for the miners at this point. The selling is done by hedge funds (no individual traders would sell their positions to the extent it happened today with flat spot prices), and thus it will continue in the midst of a terrible sentiment until the sell all the shares they intended to sell. It will continue until it stops. Based on my 2008-2009 experience, however, it will be pretty clear when the selling stops. At that point, we should all go in BIG time into the miners, for a trade, with a stop at the lows. That's what I intend to do this time, rather than just buying on the way down and ending up with no cash when the bottom is in.
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly will make it 'pretty clear when the selling stops?'
DeleteYou don't think it's Paulson selling off his positions in GLD and miners because of margin calls, do you?
DeleteWhat's the matter with me? I still can't find jesse's tweets. I typed in jessestine@insidebuyss and that didn't work.
ReplyDeleteGo to Jesse stine .com and use the link
DeletePADC - I recall last year PM's were brutalized going into PADC. Same this year? I guess they continue the beating until November?
ReplyDeleteMUX - Should we place an GTC a few pennies under last year's low, or maybe 20% under?
PAL - -8% haircut today, wow.. I'm not surprised really, just that someone was bidding it up last week and everyone was wondering "WTF, buyout?".
ReplyDelete"how to profit from negative sentiment."
ReplyDeleteXIN maybe? I don't see much institutional ownership, there must be a reason?
http://assets.bizjournals.com/kansascity/pdf/YRCWorldwideOrganizational%20Changes.PDF
ReplyDeleteYou know, in the past, it was always pretty clear to all of us, within a few days of the low, that THE low was in. Don't you remember how clear it was in 2008 and in 2009? The bearish tone to the price action just seemed to disappear. We didn't even have to read any blogs -- we just KNEW the bottom was in from the way the price had behaved. I am expecting to see the same signs this time again. And if I read them wrong, the stop I'll place will save my ass. From now on I'll ALWAYS use stops. I'll act as a long-term investor ONLY when my position is in the green, and I'll use my "investor" conviction for letting my position run and preventing myself from selling it too soon.
ReplyDeleteAs a possible indicator of THE low being in, how about GLD rising above the Feb 26 high of 156?
DeleteI still believe ETF's like GLD are a big problem for gold. This indicates 3.5 million ounces being sold on the market with no concern about price. That's a big headwind.
ReplyDelete====
Gold ETPs continued to lose strength as investors pulled $5.6 billion out of the precious metal in Jan/Feb..
http://www.etftrends.com/2013/03/etfs-see-best-two-month-start-ever/
Goota love these analysts. YHOO moves up 50% since September:
ReplyDeleteNow > Yahoo upgraded to buy from hold: Cantor Fitzgerald
Exactly, these guys don't even seem ashamed.
DeleteSister site's down. At least, I'm unable to connect.
ReplyDeleteSo the one day I should have gone long the miners at the close...
ReplyDeleteOr ignored that impulse and gone long UNG or ?
ReplyDeleteFinally! Thanks CC. I must be pretty tweet lame.
ReplyDeleteTwelve hours. Good going, bro.
DeleteJCP- Sheesh.
ReplyDeleteIEP - I'm thinking about this one still.
ReplyDeleteToo funny. I have two charts up. JCP on top and SPY below. They are just about to touch!
ReplyDeleteRobot switched long yesterday at 1520...
ReplyDeleteHello all. First post here. Been following you guys for a while after abandoning BC.
ReplyDeleteI know TOF has been talking about TZOO. Well, it might get a push tonight if Cramer mentions it. He said he would be looking at travel stocks that are not at highs. Might be something to keep an eye on.
Carry on!
BL
Yes, I recognize you as one of the two who raised their hands last night.
DeleteHey Brad. Welcome. I can pretty much sum up what I've been up to. Cash.
DeleteWelcome here any time, Brad!
DeleteThanks for the welcomes! I actually stopped reading the other blog a long time ago. Been lurking here!
DeleteI try to read over there but it's a tedious task.
DeleteI'm adding to my USMO long here with a stop at $10.30, target $14.35
ReplyDeleteWTF?- Is this a pager service?
Delete1440 resistance, can we make it through?
ReplyDelete1540 - Now if we can just hold it....
ReplyDeleteIEP - NJ Gambling - "has 9 casino facilities with 7,485 slot machines, 226 table games and 6,048 hotel rooms in Nevada, Mississippi, Indiana, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Aruba."
ReplyDelete"Goota love these analysts. YHOO moves up 50% since September:"
ReplyDeleteBYD is a good example...GS recently downgraded it to SELL and $5.50 price target.
Nice to have you join Brad. As far as Cramer goes I highly doubt he would recommend TZOO. If I see any comments on the message boards / etc about this I might have to sell some as I hope that is not baked into today's move.
Man I tell you what...I was THIS close to buying MTG at $2.7 after reading that reminscinces of a stockblogger guy write about it:
http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/02/23/another-mgic-post/
it was a very compelling writeup. i think this guy has a pretty good track record so its good to see he is in my camp on YRCW. I've been building a bigger position in YRCW over the past few days.
by the way, BYD had the usual heart attack drop after a big move up...if it has any resemblance of other massive runners like OWW etc, this should close near even, then trade sideways for a couple of days before moving higher...
here are his posts on YRCW...basically goes over the same stuff I've posted here:
Deletehttp://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/category/yrc-worldwide-yrcw/
Again, if there is any stock left in the market that can pull off a 10 bagger, I think it's this one. it's still risky of course...huge amounts of debt and pension obligations. but $4 million in free cash flow last quarter, turnaround in annual operating income from -$800 million to +$24 million in 3 years (and +$24 million in Q4 alone despite it being a slow quarter and getting hit by Hurricane Sandy). if you want to stay strictly with the technical setup the $5.98 level held twice in the past 6 weeks or so...i'm personally giving it more room because I think their turnaround is actually strengthening despite the drop in the stock.
I prefer the YRCW story over BYD, thus BYD is the one that runs 1st..... Because I doubt it can happen, it will.
DeleteMTG - Nice move there..... More of the same in pockets. These companies that can dig themselves out of a debt hole can really run.
DeleteMBI is one that popped up on my radar recently. AGO has been kickin azz....
He also has his full portfolio documented and his returns - http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/portfolio/
Deletejeez...his cost basis in MTG is $1.60.
DeleteGlad to be here. Even if he doesn't mention TZOO, if he talks about beaten down stuff, maybe it will get a bump. But really, I have no idea. Just a thought.
ReplyDeleteOnly if it makes sense, and you've got to think about it hard, do complete DD and maybe bounce some ideas off others to see if they can think of potential pitfalls?
DeleteI don't have much exposure to making business travel plans anymore, I just jump in the car and go somewhere for a day or two.
IEP - Needs to close better than $62.50, the opening price. Could be an H&S formation but I cannot believe that's possible. Dunno
ReplyDeleteI'd rather just get stopped out of an REIT paying 12~15% dividend....
FSYS - Earnings in a few days....
ReplyDeleteCP, I think AGO goes to $30 this year. It bounced on the good news, has now consolidated as I'm sure there was a bunch of long time holders who were happy to get out. But the valuation easily supports $30, the risk has decreased with the ratings downgrade now complete and the win in the Flagstar case. Insuring municipal bonds really is a good business as long as your are disciplined which I believe these guys are.
ReplyDeleteThanks, for some reason I thought you were shooting for $20. I'm definitely watching for an entry.
DeleteBrad - What stocks are you long right now? Are you a Caraista?
ReplyDeleteHell no!
Delete"MTG - Nice move there..... More of the same in pockets. These companies that can dig themselves out of a debt hole can really run."
ReplyDeleteCP - Honestly this is a part of the reason I like BYD and YRCW. these highly leveraged stocks (CZR, OWW, SPWR, MTG, etc) are running very hard. If there is some fundamental reason for the stock to move I and it's highly leveraged then I have a little more comfort going long...
NOK bounced right where it was "supposed" to bounce. I think going long here with a stop below $3.3 is a good trade.
ReplyDeleteCrap....got left in the dust by HIMX.
ReplyDeleteWhat does Lynch say?
"The key to making money in stocks is to not get scared out of them".
That would have been a BIG double for me if I fricking held it.
I've been adding YRCW on weakness and I'm HOLDING. My basis is $5.90. The only thing that worries me is Jesse's email about commodities, which includes oil and NG.
GASS is the gift that keeps on giving, holding onto it too.
LVLT - Bull flag(upside down bear flag), just revisited this chart. PO mid $30's
ReplyDeleteFMD is running today. I've had my eye on this for a while just waiting for a buy signal which would be a move above $1.1 (buy half) and then a retest of the $1.00 level (buy remaining half).
ReplyDeleteLTON ready for a breakout move. The ascending triangle is the best pattern to play in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteJMBA reports after hours.
I've been thinking about Jesse's email and the 20/20 story on China.
ReplyDeleteThey have build a RE bubble that makes our bubble look like child's play, entire cities empty, no one to buy (hard to do when a condo costs $50-60K and you make $2000 a year). Builders in debt, nothing selling, construction halted. How long before this hits the entire Chinese economy and they devalue the renimbi to offset the losses? What will the rest of the worlds be forced to do to compensate?
I think Jesse's 500% call on commodities is conservative and I think gold goes higher than $5000 an ounce. Jim Chanos is right, the only thing left to figure out is the timing. I can't see how it is avoidable.
TZOO offed, we failed around here the other day. I'm sure its good LT and you guys will make more.
ReplyDeleteGL gone for the day.
Interesting...I do prefer selling breakouts over buying them...
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/u-k-natural-gas-stores-may-empty-in-two-weeks-chart-of-the-day.html
ReplyDeleteIt's funny man I was looking at the Russia stocks yesterday and got Jesse's email. I drew a trendline on the charts of RSX and YNDX and VIP and thought to myself how they were all pretty low risk entries right now.
ReplyDeleteThe ironic thing about this whole commodities potential takeoff is we all know how much the Fed has supported things over the past 4 years. Every perma bear or "guru" that has called for massive inflation has talked about the Fed's money printing endlessly and shorted the markets and called for massive moves higher in gold and gold stocks…only to watch their gold related companies go completely down the tubes over the past year (look at GDXJ or GDX, for example). Were they wrong? Maybe not. But their timing was and in the markets that's as good as being wrong. Now most of them are broke and probably being forced to sell at the EXACT moment they should be going long in a big way. Could be quite a doozy if this happens.
Not being smart enough to know how to value gold etc I'm going to stick with my TZOO/YRCW/BYD for the time being.
I think you would be just as right with other commodities....food, oil, coal, NG, etc.
DeleteIf gold is the right move there will be time like there was in the past.
Agree though, wrong timing is just wrong. However, I'm keeping an eagle eye on the energies and inflation sensitive essentials.
Back in December I wrote down a if-then scenario where if the market ran higher slowly like it did in 2010/11 then what would benefit most. oil stocks were one of them and that's not working right now. However, EOX was one that I jotted down and the chart still looks ok.
DeleteGas is running higher into spring as usual. It may be costs are higher unless you are a conglomerate that drills, pumps, transports and refines, so maybe the price hasn't made it to earnings yet?
DeleteEverything energy is down except solar. Interesting divergence there, but dollar has been stronger until today. See Jesse's chart on UUP.
I have to stick with Bernanke on this for the time being. Bears are trying to say smart money is selling into rallies.
DeleteAPA - Hopefully this one's close to bottoming?
I think big Ben is going to have his work cut out for him if China goes TU.
DeleteThe deal is, EVERYONE is easing, so it's a well supported thesis, but if the China thing seriously supports as does the chart...new highs today.
Unless the first move it the fake out, but who am I to guess? It is what it is.
Just read the report, he made some great points.
DeleteGGB - Sheesh, just noticed this thing's getting mighty close to my stink bid, might have to lower it if it hasn't already triggered..... Oh, the bid isn't there now, must've expired. Don't even remember my downside target anymore, right around here somewhere though, mid to upper $7's.....
Surely there can't be much more commodities downside if we're not heading for another recession, which from my perspective would at least require deep military budget cuts.
Cashed in 1/4 of TZOO at $21.8.
ReplyDeletebought it back at $21.99.
DeleteWTF. I saw 89,900 shares on the ask on YRCW and it just got gobbled up like nothing happened. That's really weird.
ReplyDeleteAt 6.23? Hmmmm...
Deletei just happened to be watching it and the ask came out and within 2 seconds it was gobbled up.
DeleteThe lifeboats are doing their job, although based on the intraday performance of miners the early passengers made out a lot better (GDX +1.9% at the open, now fading to +0.2%).
ReplyDeleteAnd MUX about to go red. Marked that sucker up 5% at the open and sold into it all day.
ReplyDelete...and X goes red.
DeleteSteel price increases went over like a lead balloon I guess. BACML picked NUE with target of $49, and RS $72.
DeletePDAC-3
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (3925 comments) on Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:38 #117891
I will have an article in the WIR on my views about the gold and silver price. Have now talked to enough people to see they know as little as any of us.
David- I really think the smart move here is to cut the cord to AUMN. Save yourself and let the miner die. Another -7%? That's just not right, bro.
DeleteThat commment from Bill says a lot. Something's happening, and no one knows what it is. There could be an alien trading miners for all we know.
DeleteYeah, I offed SAND who needs it.
DeleteTZOO looks like it will hold today, I guess that goes with the theory of alternation.
And great someone's paying the wizard 3% to manage assets and he now says he knows little of what's going on. What ever happened to "I trade prices" Oh yeah I formed an opinion that it will work out in 3 years time. Does that strike anyone as a change of method?
I've cut loss so much this year its a miracle I'm still green.
That sounds like me in 2010. I spent the entire year practicing the art of minimizing losses.
DeletePaid off, though.
DeleteALSK - This one jumped on earnings but has since sunk back.
ReplyDeleteNFLX - That's some kinda PE on this one...
ReplyDeleteSomething I noticed a few times in the past few days
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by cheapy (527 comments) on Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:34 #117893
I've heard a lot of people on TV suggesting that they are and to short gold looking for a drop to $1400 or $1200 depending on which one you were listening to. The $1200 one was Jonathan Hoenig on Fox over the weekend, and he runs a hedge fund and was saying his fund was short.
I also have noticed, last friday especially, a number of people on CNBC negative on gold, and they seemed to replay those negative comments multiple times during the day. I recall that same method of replaying taunting, I will call it, with Mark Haines doing it, back the day gold dropped to the high $700's a few years back, and had those same terrible feelings I've had recently, LOL, not that this is necessarily any really valid indicator.
But it occurs to me that if the hedge funds are all short gold or miners, they need to get someone else to either dump in panic or short it more in order to exit their positions and collect their profits, if they were wanting to do so.
Anyway, I think I need to recognize my gross error trying to invest rather than just taking small trades, and just plan to hunker down and wait for the next upcycle to exit, and hope that I can get a job or last financially till then.
Thanks for the kind suggestions and comments the other day.
Live and learn...........
Glad to see he's in good spirits.
DeleteSPX - Target for the inverted H&S is 1563
ReplyDeleteVolume drying up? Watching this close.....
Delete"David- I really think the smart move here is to cut the cord to AUMN. Save yourself and let the miner die. Another -7%? That's just not right, bro."
ReplyDeleteI should have listened to you last January, when AUMN rose above $10... I did sell a large chunk of my position at $4.40, on the day they announced the production delay, and then ETrade sold another large chunk for me at $2.90. Right now, not having any margin, and with the whole sector being terribly oversold, I think I'll wait for a rebound before reducing my exposure further...
David- That's what I thought 2 Fridays ago only to see it bounce for a day and 1/2. My sale was at 16.00 then.
DeleteMark- Which symbol are you referring to?
DeleteMark was in GDXJ, if I recall.
DeleteHappy PADC eh guys? NEM - yet another day of red.
ReplyDelete$2 RBY, $1 GPL.... MUX and AUMN same price...
Sold 1/4 of TZOO at $22.05 going into the close.
ReplyDeleteGGN - Maybe we get a shot under $12? What's up with that div though, need to find out how long they can continue paying that?
ReplyDeleteXGGNX is the NAV, which is currently $12.01
DeleteWelcome Brad
ReplyDeleteafternoon fellas,
didn't do a thing today
I spent more hours this last weekend doing scans and looking at charts than I have in a long time and now I don't remember a thing. I do remember thinking there were a couple of stocks that showed up on my morningstar scans that had good charts but my bear biased market outlook is keeping me on the sidelines.
Kyle - sadly I agree with you on picking up FCX in the 20's.
cc, you are a stud, I hope GASS trades to 20 and takes you along for the ride.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope you are right!
DeleteChavez passed, loco machina!
ReplyDeletePBR - What a beating, as if insiders are funneling the valuable projects to their own private company and dumping the loser projects on PBR shareholders.
ReplyDeleteSCTY - Well, this solar still seems to be shining...
ReplyDeleteJNPR - Volume picked up, late comers seizing opportunity?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete