Tuesday, March 5, 2013
03/05/13 Anastasia screamed in vain
I held a general's rank when they blitzed the miners and their tickers stank.
The stocks trade hands at real prices, and sellers are experiencing real wealth destruction. No one seems to know why the sector is selling off. But does it matter? All we need to know is the trend is down. It's OK to try timing a bounce if you have stops in place. Apart from that, the appropriate trade seems to be a short.
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Asking mining investors to hold through a -50% decline (presumably prior to seeing new highs) is like asking us to hold through another 2008-09 decline. No thanks.
ReplyDelete2nd- I was referring to GDXJ as Chicken pointed out.
ReplyDelete2nd- Honestly, you might want to think about your suggestion that, " Apart from that, the appropriate trade seems to be a short." Might the better play be, apart from that, stand aside? Who wants to run into a +17% short covering day like happened in RBY.
ReplyDeletec'mon...do you really expect us degenerate gamblers...err "investors"...to not take a position?
DeleteSure! But it's gone down 50% already, so maybe waiting for a retrace and then to start down again before shorting, but shorting into support is a hard row to hoe. I would think the short opportunity was a while ago.
DeletePM's up on expectation of further stimulus? Cash commodities fell back to 13ma and that's where Ben has always brought out his bazooka, Joe.
DeleteSurely if commodities producers halt/limit production then supply shortages will become the eventual result?
http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
Mean snow storm, just 4" but wet and heavy with wind. I hear large trees snapping and chainsaws running in the distance. Snow until late tonight 8-12"
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's chainsaws and bones snapping in the midst of the mining disaster.
DeleteThe New York Mining Disaster?
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCRqAzCevsY
Employment - 198,000 in Jan
ReplyDeleteIs that supposed to be good or bad?
DeleteDMND - Looks like this one might close the gap down from ~$18?
ReplyDeleteHmmm...Maybe the sink hole in Fl. has something to do with the miners?
ReplyDeleteNSPH is REALLY interesting here, but damn, I just can't pull the trigger given where ti overall market is.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't do it, either.
DeleteTo be honest, the stock market's kind of scary right now.
DeleteI could probably leave and come back in six months to find myself in good shape.
DeleteHolding cash, that is.
DeleteLandry nails the prevailing sentiment:
ReplyDelete'The media remains happy happy happy. They're overjoyed by the fact that the Dow closed at all-time highs. Don't get me wrong, this is a good thing but it's only 30 stocks.'
MUX- Wow!
ReplyDeleteCan't say the same for RBY.
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ReplyDeleteXCO giving it another shot 6.815ish
ReplyDelete9 block trades, pretty sure this stock is under accumulation
Miners lifting, on decent volume. This could be it, David.
ReplyDeleteYou know me. I won't chase.
DeleteMaybe this is it... But we'll know for sure when GDX and GLD break out above their Feb 26 high. I'll now use Craig's advice and trade only those charts where the series of lower high and low lows gets broken.
DeleteSince I am in the mode of "not losing money", I decided to move my sell stop on SNE to my breakeven level, $15.39.
ReplyDeleteSNE is trading now PRECISELY at the level of its early Feb high. What are the chances that it makes a double top RIGHT HERE? I think they are pretty slim, given how shallow its mid-Feb pullback was, despite "poor" earnings results. Get SNE now before it runs away! When it breaks out to a new high, many traders will start piling into it, and it might run too fast to catch it at that point!
ReplyDeleteXCO offed 6.99
ReplyDeleteWhat did YRCW get into the mining business?
ReplyDeleteI heard they are partnering with AUMN to develop their El Quevar property in Argentina, promising to put at least $50M into the development over the next year!
DeleteI have just looked at the 1-month intraday SLV chart and it gave me a feeling that the double bottom at $27.5 is going to hold, and that we are now witnessing the start of a breakout from that double bottom. Almost all of my margin buying power is tied up with SNE, so I decided, just for a trade, to buy some short-dated SLV calls and sell them if SLV fails the $27.50 support. So I just bought April $29 calls at $0.47, as much as my buying power would allow me, which was 40 contracts.
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at $1 for these calls, so as to double the money after accounting for transaction costs (ETrade charged me $40 for buying these calls!).
DeleteGDX/ GDXJ up +4-5% on 2x normal volume, so it’s likely the selling pressure has lifted. As a general rule, I don’t chase prices, so any further rally without a pullback would leave me in the lounge at Penn Station. That’s OK. I’ll take a lost opportunity over a loss any day. UGAZ is down -4% today, so I may head over to Times Square.
ReplyDeleteWell I'm doing what any good mining investor would do...averaging down on my one loser: YRCW. Bought more at $5.91 / $5.93 today.
ReplyDeletei'm just kidding by the way...well, not about buying.
DeleteThat's funny!!!
DeleteSLV closed today precisely at the triple top level of $28.10 reached yesterday morning and this morning...
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, remember I said that we would get the feeling that the bottom is in for the miners? Didn't you get this feeling today?
ReplyDeleteFrom now on, I'll NEVER catch falling knives and instead will wait until I get the feeling that THE bottom is IN.
i was thinking about buying some IAG. This would def be trying to pick the bottom for a trade. It made a new low today and closed in the green on big volume.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see, i'm first up on the bid right now. Will place a stop a little below today's low, 5.90 ish or so.
DeleteIf I was going to buy a mid-size gold, IAG would be the one.
DeleteScary thing for me is worst market timing friend bought gold last Thursday. He almost always top-ticks things, so not sure what it means when actually buys something that is down.