My broker includes their reports in the newsfeed. Smart trend is waiting for a buy signal on PCAB, which I'm sure today helped on 4.5 times normal volume.
Check the news feed from your broker. I can read mine but they don't let me cut and paste.
I would NOT be surprised to see a breakdown anyday now but prices are still going up. I'm watching GOOG for an entry. I would prefer to see a bull flag pullback but a drift sideways is fine too. Yesterday's hi was $844.00 so I've set a price alert for $845. With my little account I'll probably only buy 15 or so shares but at least it would take about a $30 drop to stop me out for a $500 loss. Hmmm, maybe I can buy 20 shares and use a $20 drop as a stop.
These guys show, on average, the rest of March is up every day until we get till the last week. Can't really trade on this, but shows the positive seasonality for the next couple of months which means we shouldn't get too negative.
GDX/ GDXJ/ SLW/ GG closed @ 31.4x, 16.3x, 31.5x, 33.2x for a +3.3% gain on the (one hour) trade. I had about 1/3 of the port invested, so +1.13% gain overall. I hope this means my 2013 batting slump is over!
Louise Yamada's Outlook (see King World News) Submitted by papadynamite (386 comments) on Fri, 03/08/2013 - 09:20 #117981 Yamada, a technical analyst I respect, indicates quite bluntly that the monthly profile for silver "carries a distinct and ominous descending triangular formation suggestive of further decline, even back to the 22 support from 2010. Monthly and weekly momentum models continue down on a Sell, suggesting more risk ahead, notwithstanding interim bounces. resistance lies at 30 and 32, followed by 34-35." I have never seen her make such a bearish call. Although Bll looks for a bullish outllook in the future, the future has not yet come to pass and the present is very ominous. I took a bath in my precious metals attempting to pre-empt a bottom like a fool. NO MORE! I have no position in any precious metal miners and primarily in cash except for a minor position in ARGEX. From what I have been reading on the site, many of you are still holding onto positions in the miners. I hope that you have a very low cost basis to weather the storm. I am now looking at the lows the miners have reached over the past few years in trying to figure a possible entry point. MY miners of particular interest include, AG, EXK and SLW. For instance, SLW is currently $31.02 but descended to a low of $22.74 in 2012. Likewise, Silver reached a low of $26.10 at the same time. The monthly support pivots for silver are 25.10 and 19.87 while for SLW are 25.48 and14.87. So certainly, there is lots of room for lower prices. But for now I am only watching. Incidently, I am awaiting Bill's comment on ARGEX outlook for the coming period. Good luck everyone and I do share your pain!
I have little doubt we're close to capitulation. In fact, Tuesday may have been the low. My concern is that we're at all-time highs in the broader market, and that any correction could well take a toll on miners as well. There's no way to know. So I prefer to remain sidelined except for brief forays into the sector.
Yeah PZ...big time turnaround. Gross margins were up 3% from 2011 to 2012, operating income went from -$138 million to +$24 million. they still have about $150 million in interest expense which puts them at a net loss. but oper inc was around $25 million in q4 (best qtr of the year) which is normally a weak quarter for them and they had to contend with Sandy. leverage is insane. they have a couple of convertible notes that come due at $14 (7 million shs) and $34 (6 million) i think would would increase share count from 7.8 to 19.8. that would be a good problem though if it gets to those prices. they still have huge debt and pension obligation issues but the trend in margins and operating income is impossible to ignore. i think there's actually an outside chance they break even this quarter which would completely shock the market.
It was quite irresponsible (i.e., too risky) of me to buy March puts on KOLD a couple of weeks ago, since these puts were very close to expiration. The only thing I can say too redeem myself, is that I kept my position size very small initially, and was increasing it only when KOLD became more and more overbought (I put $750 into $23 puts, then $1000 into $26 puts and then $1300 into $30). I have already sold the $26 strike puts with a gain of $500, and today my $23 strike puts have reached their breakeven price, and so I have just placed a sell limit for these puts at my purchase price ($1.50).
Well, folks, VIX is under $13 once again, implying that it is at a rock bottom and does not have any further to fall. Thus, the risk of entering TVIX now is only in contango, which is around 10% per month. Last time I observed such an environment, I started scaling into TVIX and made $1K on that trade. Let's see if I can make money on it once again. Just bought 1000 shares at $4.16.
david - again, why do you imply they are at rock bottom when they were below 10 in the mid 2000's? also we don't have the data from the 1980s but i would have to imagine they got that low then...
Speaking about PM positions, today was one of the days when it served me well to wake up late. :) I had a full determination to exit my April $29 calls on SLV if it dropped below yesterday's low. Luckily, I slept through that drop, and after it SLV made a new 1-week high, once again making its chart look quite bullish, ESPECIALLY after the morning shakeout of weak hands. So I keep holding those calls...
Another reason I entered TVIX today is that the 10-year rates rose to an 11-month high now. The "jaws of death" are setting up their trap (the environment where stocks have reached 52-week high and climbing AND interest rates have reached a 6-month high and climbing usually gets resolved by an abrupt temporary switch from equities into Treasuries).
Had the order on my screen yesterday to buy more YRCW in the $5.85 range, but thought I could get it even cheaper. Have to wait till next week I guess because it is rocking today and I never buys stocks up 5% as this has hurt me FAR more many times than helped.
Folks, after looking at the SLV chart, I can't shake off the feeling that it is going to rally TOMORROW. Especially given the "telegraphing" action in GDXJ, which are rallying hard and outperforming GDX, implying that the risk is ON in the PM space. So I have just purchased 30 contracts of May $29 calls on SLV at $0.67.
Fricking crazy day. My broker issues a software update the completely F's up the positions readout and all the price basis for each position. Luckily I remember what each one is and the account history is sound, so I had to go back and re-average each basis so I had good numbers.
In the meantime the Big Dave service pick fricking takes off and gaps past the trigger by .30 cents, so I fire off that trade (CLDX) and hang on for dear life as it goes nuts.
I bought YRCW at 5.91/5.88/5.99 so I'm looking at it to keep track of what it's doing, GASS pulled back so added there...all life is suffering, right? I hate it when it's going this well (besides the positions graphic) as it almost always means there is an imminent pullback in the works. The market can never seem to make me look good for too long.
On a second thought, I cancelled that order. Will wait for the price of silver to rally and will then place a stop at my purchase price, so as to let my calls "run."
CC- what's the smarttrend report?
ReplyDeleteYou know what Smart trend is, right?
Deletehttp://www.mysmartrend.com/?gclid=CIaz8KWh7LUCFc9AMgod-EcAyw
My broker includes their reports in the newsfeed. Smart trend is waiting for a buy signal on PCAB, which I'm sure today helped on 4.5 times normal volume.
Check the news feed from your broker. I can read mine but they don't let me cut and paste.
SKUL- Holly crap! Weren't we trading that one around 12?
ReplyDeleteAccording to Z, my house made me $66K last month.
ReplyDeleteCADC is basing nicely...(There's more of this to come if no one steps in here.)
ReplyDeleteUh Oh....
ReplyDeleteBarry's Quote of the day.
"You try to be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." -Warren Buffett
Up UP UP we go.
ReplyDeleteI would NOT be surprised to see a breakdown anyday now but prices are still going up. I'm watching GOOG for an entry. I would prefer to see a bull flag pullback but a drift sideways is fine too. Yesterday's hi was $844.00 so I've set a price alert for $845. With my little account I'll probably only buy 15 or so shares but at least it would take about a $30 drop to stop me out for a $500 loss. Hmmm, maybe I can buy 20 shares and use a $20 drop as a stop.
These guys show, on average, the rest of March is up every day until we get till the last week. Can't really trade on this, but shows the positive seasonality for the next couple of months which means we shouldn't get too negative.
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/SPY-SPX-March-in-Like-a-Lion-Out-Like-a-Lamb-2
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
ReplyDeleteWow, metals/miners are now negatively correlated with the broader indexes.
Scaling into GG @ 32.43.
ReplyDeleteAdded GDXJ @ 15.76...
ReplyDeleteAdded to GG @ 32.30...
ReplyDeleteGDX @ 36.43...
ReplyDeleteAdded to GDX @ 36.38...
ReplyDeleteNice buys 2nd - the miners are really bouncing this morning
DeleteNice moves up in the life insurance companies this morning as interest rates rise. MET up over 3%. NWLI up 1.5%.
ReplyDeleteRising rates due to an improving economy will help life insurance at the same time it hurts gold.
SLW @ 30.51...
ReplyDeleteSDT out
ReplyDeleteNice swing 2nd
GDX/ GDXJ/ SLW/ GG closed @ 31.4x, 16.3x, 31.5x, 33.2x for a +3.3% gain on the (one hour) trade. I had about 1/3 of the port invested, so +1.13% gain overall. I hope this means my 2013 batting slump is over!
ReplyDeleteGDX close should read 37.4x.
DeleteT3D/2nd- good trades boyz.
ReplyDeleteLouise Yamada's Outlook (see King World News)
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by papadynamite (386 comments) on Fri, 03/08/2013 - 09:20 #117981
Yamada, a technical analyst I respect, indicates quite bluntly that the monthly profile for silver "carries a distinct and ominous descending triangular formation suggestive of further decline, even back to the 22 support from 2010. Monthly and weekly momentum models continue down on a Sell, suggesting more risk ahead, notwithstanding interim bounces. resistance lies at 30 and 32, followed by 34-35."
I have never seen her make such a bearish call. Although Bll looks for a bullish outllook in the future, the future has not yet come to pass and the present is very ominous. I took a bath in my precious metals attempting to pre-empt a bottom like a fool. NO MORE! I have no position in any precious metal miners and primarily in cash except for a minor position in ARGEX.
From what I have been reading on the site, many of you are still holding onto positions in the miners. I hope that you have a very low cost basis to weather the storm.
I am now looking at the lows the miners have reached over the past few years in trying to figure a possible entry point. MY miners of particular interest include, AG, EXK and SLW. For instance, SLW is currently $31.02 but descended to a low of $22.74 in 2012. Likewise, Silver reached a low of $26.10 at the same time. The monthly support pivots for silver are 25.10 and 19.87 while for SLW are 25.48 and14.87.
So certainly, there is lots of room for lower prices. But for now I am only watching.
Incidently, I am awaiting Bill's comment on ARGEX outlook for the coming period. Good luck everyone and I do share your pain!
dude this comment has to be taken as capitulation no? completely out of all positions?!?
Deleteyamada was calling for significantly higher silver prices not too long ago was she not?
I have little doubt we're close to capitulation. In fact, Tuesday may have been the low. My concern is that we're at all-time highs in the broader market, and that any correction could well take a toll on miners as well. There's no way to know. So I prefer to remain sidelined except for brief forays into the sector.
DeleteGG back to 32.62.
ReplyDeleteThe last two times I've traded miners it's been with CP's observation in mind> You can't buy miners on strength.
DeleteI sold my TZOO this morning and rolled it all into YRCW. YRCW will be a top 5 performing stock from 2013 to 2015...10 bagger plus...
ReplyDeleteTF-briefly what is the thesis here?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeletePillz, if you read back through the last two or three weeks, you find what your looking for.
DeleteIn a word, turnaround.
Yeah PZ...big time turnaround. Gross margins were up 3% from 2011 to 2012, operating income went from -$138 million to +$24 million. they still have about $150 million in interest expense which puts them at a net loss. but oper inc was around $25 million in q4 (best qtr of the year) which is normally a weak quarter for them and they had to contend with Sandy. leverage is insane. they have a couple of convertible notes that come due at $14 (7 million shs) and $34 (6 million) i think would would increase share count from 7.8 to 19.8. that would be a good problem though if it gets to those prices. they still have huge debt and pension obligation issues but the trend in margins and operating income is impossible to ignore. i think there's actually an outside chance they break even this quarter which would completely shock the market.
Deleteif they can close it around $6.06 that would put a nice bottoming tail hammer in for the weekly chart.
Deleteput in a 6.05 bid. filled 200/1000 so far
DeleteIt was quite irresponsible (i.e., too risky) of me to buy March puts on KOLD a couple of weeks ago, since these puts were very close to expiration. The only thing I can say too redeem myself, is that I kept my position size very small initially, and was increasing it only when KOLD became more and more overbought (I put $750 into $23 puts, then $1000 into $26 puts and then $1300 into $30). I have already sold the $26 strike puts with a gain of $500, and today my $23 strike puts have reached their breakeven price, and so I have just placed a sell limit for these puts at my purchase price ($1.50).
ReplyDeleteReopening a (much smaller) position in SLW @ 30.72...
ReplyDeleteScrew it. Out @ 30.80.
DeleteWell, folks, VIX is under $13 once again, implying that it is at a rock bottom and does not have any further to fall. Thus, the risk of entering TVIX now is only in contango, which is around 10% per month. Last time I observed such an environment, I started scaling into TVIX and made $1K on that trade. Let's see if I can make money on it once again. Just bought 1000 shares at $4.16.
ReplyDeleteLet's say I am hedging the recent gains on my PM positions against a brutal sell-off in the overall market...
Deletedavid - again, why do you imply they are at rock bottom when they were below 10 in the mid 2000's? also we don't have the data from the 1980s but i would have to imagine they got that low then...
DeleteYes, there were a *few* months in mid-2000 when VIX was under 11, but MOST of the time, even pre-2008, VIX was above 12.
DeleteSpeaking about PM positions, today was one of the days when it served me well to wake up late. :) I had a full determination to exit my April $29 calls on SLV if it dropped below yesterday's low. Luckily, I slept through that drop, and after it SLV made a new 1-week high, once again making its chart look quite bullish, ESPECIALLY after the morning shakeout of weak hands. So I keep holding those calls...
ReplyDeleteheads up fellas - brazil (EWZ) looks like it's about to go off.
ReplyDeleteAnother reason I entered TVIX today is that the 10-year rates rose to an 11-month high now. The "jaws of death" are setting up their trap (the environment where stocks have reached 52-week high and climbing AND interest rates have reached a 6-month high and climbing usually gets resolved by an abrupt temporary switch from equities into Treasuries).
ReplyDeleteFolks, take a look at the 10-year expected inflation (red line in the graph below):
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0
It is approaching 52-week highs. PM investors cannot ignore this trend for too long...
Even though it is increasing, it is not high and not a concern at 2.5% and far below the rates in the 1990's when gold traded in the sub-$500 range.
DeleteRead today that even Eric Sprott is selling some of his gold - don't forget about diversification.
Had the order on my screen yesterday to buy more YRCW in the $5.85 range, but thought I could get it even cheaper. Have to wait till next week I guess because it is rocking today and I never buys stocks up 5% as this has hurt me FAR more many times than helped.
ReplyDeleteFolks, after looking at the SLV chart, I can't shake off the feeling that it is going to rally TOMORROW. Especially given the "telegraphing" action in GDXJ, which are rallying hard and outperforming GDX, implying that the risk is ON in the PM space. So I have just purchased 30 contracts of May $29 calls on SLV at $0.67.
ReplyDeleteLook closer. Tomorrow is Saturday.
DeleteSo it will rally tomorrow (in the traders' minds) and then gap up on Monday. :)
DeleteThat's my favorite Buddhist!
DeleteTOF- Don't accidentally type in TRCW for YRCW. I seem to do it all the time.
ReplyDeletedo we need to pay for a typing class for you? has it gotten that bad?
DeleteAre you kidding? Mark wouldn't be the same without a little dyslexia.
DeleteFricking crazy day. My broker issues a software update the completely F's up the positions readout and all the price basis for each position. Luckily I remember what each one is and the account history is sound, so I had to go back and re-average each basis so I had good numbers.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime the Big Dave service pick fricking takes off and gaps past the trigger by .30 cents, so I fire off that trade (CLDX) and hang on for dear life as it goes nuts.
I bought YRCW at 5.91/5.88/5.99 so I'm looking at it to keep track of what it's doing, GASS pulled back so added there...all life is suffering, right? I hate it when it's going this well (besides the positions graphic) as it almost always means there is an imminent pullback in the works. The market can never seem to make me look good for too long.
' I hate it when it's going this well.' I feel your pain, bro ;)
DeleteAnother block trade in PACB?
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $1.40 for the 30 contracts of SLV calls I picked up today at $0.67, so as to double the money after the transaction costs...
ReplyDeleteDavid- I wish I could be more optimistic about the metals. I am optimistic, but not in the ST.
DeleteOn a second thought, I cancelled that order. Will wait for the price of silver to rally and will then place a stop at my purchase price, so as to let my calls "run."
Delete