Friday, March 8, 2013

03/08/13 Bull Trap

Miners dropped -1% at the open, quickly rallied +3% from those lows, only to close just +0.5% for the day on volume somewhat less than the average of the past two days. IMO, a bull trap was triggered and closed. I was fortunate to be off today and able to take my trade to One Hour Martinizing for modest gains during the setting of a bull trap.
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67 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 2:02 PM

    Which is why I'm able to kick off the weekend with a margarita at his hour.

    ReplyDelete
  2. MarkWMarch 8, 2013 at 3:09 PM

    http://www.bevmo.com/Shop/ProductDetail.aspx?Ne=5&N=40+4294967184&area=spirits&No=0&ProductID=35902&Ns=HighestRating|1

    Just saying...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 3:15 PM

      I hate to admit it, but this is what I'm drinking. On sale for 13 and change at the local supermarket:

      http://www.crosbylakespirits.com/item-durango-ultimate-margarita-250.html

      No comments, please.

      Delete
    2. MarkWMarch 8, 2013 at 3:37 PM

      What does it normally go for? 14?

      Delete
  3. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 3:29 PM

    This link courtesy of the sister site:

    http://www.zealllc.com/2013/congfut2.htm

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 3:34 PM

      The problem I have with it is that it's difficult to ascertain which side constitutes the 'true' contrarian POV right now.

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 3:36 PM

      Even the 'True Contrarian' has been wrong the past few weeks.

      http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.co.uk/

      Delete
  4. Port2017March 8, 2013 at 3:30 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Port2017March 8, 2013 at 3:32 PM

      TBT, higher lows and higher highs. I was going to pick up some at or below $63 during the correction, that's right, the phantom correction.

      I'm currently short the Mar 71 strike against my shares. I hate buying calls back.

      Delete
  5. MarkWMarch 8, 2013 at 3:35 PM

    I bought all of these about 3 years ago and have kept a few shares of each.

    BMRN +383%
    UKK +382%
    TCK +339%
    BC +298%
    CAR +275%
    GG +7%

    Just saying...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 3:41 PM

      Unless there's a typo, Goldcorp is an outlier.

      Delete
  6. Port2017March 8, 2013 at 3:37 PM

    Sold 1/4 of my NOAH at 8.09 to give it a reason to rally more.

    Sold half my CF at 207.10 that I bot last week at 199.86, raising my stop on the other half to breakeven. This certainly has not performed with the general market.

    ReplyDelete
  7. MarkWMarch 8, 2013 at 3:38 PM

    I'm having a loli-pop.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Port2017March 8, 2013 at 3:43 PM

      what's red and smells like blue paint?

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 4:05 PM

      Red paint.

      Delete
    3. Port2017March 9, 2013 at 6:08 PM

      Dang, that was to easy. It must have been "what's blue and smells like red paint?"

      Delete
  8. Port2017March 8, 2013 at 3:40 PM

    I'm listening to WE ARE FAMILY , i don't have any playlist set up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 3:42 PM

      Yes, I can see that both you and Mark are blogging under the influence.

      Delete
    2. MarkWMarch 8, 2013 at 4:52 PM

      Port for sure. I'm just opening my first beer. Give me a minute.

      Delete
  9. Port2017March 8, 2013 at 3:49 PM

    My cherished alone time is coming to an end.

    TBT, look at the weekly chart. It has a nice basing pattern going on. A smart technician would probably wait for a breakout. Then there's me, I've had my shares for weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 2nd_aveMarch 8, 2013 at 6:58 PM

    What catalysts remain? Earnings, sequestration, jobs are over. We hit a void next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Clear CutMarch 9, 2013 at 6:33 AM

      No overhead supply to plow through. The Fed remains.

      Delete
  11. MarkWMarch 9, 2013 at 7:55 AM

    On March 5th Barclays upgraded MTG from underweight to overweight. No big deal. Happens all the time. But it raised it's PT from $1 to $8. That's funny!

    ReplyDelete
  12. 2nd_aveMarch 9, 2013 at 12:52 PM

    Positions I'm considering at this point:

    (a) HDGE. Remember this one? Investors jumped on board during late February volatility, only to get burned. It may be time to hitch a ride.
    (b) HLF. Ackman's going to pay the price. Any sign of a squeeze and I'm jumping in.
    (c) GDX. Cinderella's checking her beeper and replacing batteries. There will be a true capitulation day.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Port2017March 9, 2013 at 6:25 PM

    Someday I'll take a class in grammer and punctuation, but not today.

    Before I was looking for long term calls on YCS but they only go out about 6 months. I should have focused on FXY. FXY has leaps available. The Jan14 100 puts are $3.60 / $3.90. My Think Or Swim account shows an implied vol of 12.83%. Monday I'll start with a small position, maybe just 2 calls for $780 while I wait for a better setup.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMarch 9, 2013 at 6:31 PM

      Whoa, bro. NOW's the time to short the yen?

      Delete
    2. Port2017March 9, 2013 at 6:59 PM

      It's Abe vs Ben in clash of the titans.

      But just 2 puts in case I'm wrong.

      Delete
    3. 2nd_aveMarch 10, 2013 at 8:29 AM

      I would tread carefully. Being on the wrong side of a short squeeze, which could happen anytime, won't be fun. Something Mark cautioned me about just a few days ago, when I was thinking of shorting the miners.

      Delete
    4. AnonymousMarch 10, 2013 at 11:58 AM

      i dont know...i think the yen has a lot more to fall.

      Delete
  14. AnonymousMarch 10, 2013 at 11:57 AM

    apparently i missed the party friday night?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMarch 10, 2013 at 12:46 PM

      The one where we all fell asleep after imbibing alcohol? Takes me back to college.

      Delete
  15. MarkWMarch 10, 2013 at 5:56 PM

    Can someone find me a stock that's guaranteed to go up 5% next week. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 10, 2013 at 8:02 PM

      YRCW
      BALT/DSX/GNK/EXM
      SID/PBR/anything Brazil
      BYD/ZNGA
      XCO
      AMBS
      TZOO

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveMarch 11, 2013 at 7:03 AM

      That's at least a dozen choices. Is there another place in the blogosphere you can find this kind of info?

      Delete
    3. Clear CutMarch 11, 2013 at 7:06 AM

      Not for free.

      Delete
    4. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 8:11 AM

      YRCW and ZNGA are about +5% or more. BYD is getting ready for a big move.

      Delete
  16. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 8:17 AM

    http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/03/09/could-my-next-big-play-be-leveraged-companies-y-nxst-hov/

    This is EXACTLY what I have been thinking with my purchases of YRCW and BYD. If the economy returns to 3%+ growth and we get unemployment to 6% and the S&P goes to 1700 you can sure as hell bet that these two companies will be worth multiples of what they are now. We shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 8:26 AM

    I posted about this chart a few times...the baltic dry index. finally appears to be breaking out of a huge long base.

    I think this is the source of some serious gains going forward. Look at the charts of EXM/GNK/DSX/NM/BALT...all look awesome.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 8:40 AM

    SNFCA on a pullback to maybe $7.90 looks awesome.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 9:07 AM

      I actually decided to buy some at $8.4. small position but this may not pull back much more and if that happens it could run to $14 again in a heart beat. EPS relative to price is quite high and its in the market's sweet spot right now ("The company’s Mortgage Loans segment originates and underwrites residential and commercial loans for new construction, existing homes, and real estate projects primarily in Utah, Florida, California, Illinois, Texas, and Kansas."). this just feels like a knockout move to get the longs off the train before a move back to highs...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 9:53 AM

      Added a little more at $8.25.

      Delete
  19. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 8:42 AM

    Brazil looks like the perfect entry right here. EWZ calls for you guys that play options....

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 9:36 AM

    Long BCOV $6.2399

    ReplyDelete
  21. PILLZILLAMarch 11, 2013 at 9:58 AM

    Nice YRCW. Only was able to add 500 @ 6.05 Friday. But I'm not complaining at +11%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 10:08 AM

      if this plays out like i think it could YRCW could be at $50 in 2014...and that's after 2 convertible notes are exercised. leverage is unbelievable with this company and they're much closer to positive net income than the market is giving them credit for. it's a volatile one though. good luck.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaMarch 11, 2013 at 10:26 AM

      Guess I shouldn't have been afraid of adding to YRCW up 5% last Friday - oh well.

      Interestingly, my best performing stock ytd is Chinese car parts company SORL (Davi'd recomendation) up 65%. Auto stocks seem to be doing well,but wonder if I should spend some time looking at China stocks.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 10:35 AM

      yeah i saw CALI was up big today.

      Delete
  22. Telestar3dMarch 11, 2013 at 10:02 AM

    GG per UBS

    Goldcorp investor day highlights potential
    􀂄 Low capital intensity growth central to strategy With the construction and ramp-up of Pueblo Viejo, Cerro Negro, Eleonore, Cochenour and Camino
    Rojo, GG expects to increase production to 4.0-4.2Mozs in 2017E from 2.39Mozs produced in 2012. Of note, GG expects this ~70% growth to be
    achieved at a capital cost of less than $240/oz based on the $3.1B spent to date and estimated remaining capex contributions of $2.4B. With all-in
    cash costs expected to improve from the 2013 guided range of $1,000-$1,100/oz, GG could have the highest cash flow growth amongst the seniors
    over the next three years.
    􀂄 Balance sheet strong; Exploration seen as value added expense GG ended 2012 with total liquidity of ~$2.9B and net cash of ~$189M.
    Management noted at their investor day that additional debt could be taken on to increase leverage and to maximize shareholder returns. GG also
    noted that exploration expenses are central to their strategy of growing reserves. In 2012, Goldcorp increased reserves while maintaining the reserve
    gold price at $1,350/oz.
    􀂄 Exploration upside is incremental to strongest growth in senior universe More growth is possible through exploration at numerous sites, such as
    the potential for the development of a large sulphide project at Camino Rojo. GG has signed an exploitation agreement with the stakeholders at the
    site and has recorded promising drill results for both high-grade and bulk tonnage opportunities.
    􀂄 Valuation: Price target and Buy rating maintained Our $47 PT is based on a 40/60 weighting to our 9.0x P/CF and 1.1x P/NAV valuations. Given
    the implied return, we rate the shares as a Buy.

    ReplyDelete
  23. DavidMarch 11, 2013 at 10:36 AM

    It is becoming really dangerous to hold my March $23 KOLD puts, since KOLD can rebound any day and their value can go to 0. So I just sold my 5 contracts at $1.30 (bought them at $1.50), thus losing $100 on them. However, I have already made $500 on March $26 puts, so I ended up making money on the March puts. I still have 2 contracts of August $30 puts (bought them when KOLD was $27), and I plan to hold them until they double.

    ReplyDelete
  24. DavidMarch 11, 2013 at 10:37 AM

    VIX is at $11.68 now -- that's COMPLACENCY! I have just recycled the $600 I made from selling KOLD puts into 2 contracts of VXX March $19 calls at $3.10.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DavidMarch 11, 2013 at 10:41 AM

      Placed a sell limit at $6.20 for these calls.

      Delete
  25. PILLZILLAMarch 11, 2013 at 10:52 AM

    TVIX at 3.92 for trade

    ReplyDelete
  26. BB CanadaMarch 11, 2013 at 11:00 AM

    Traded out CNI today for UNP based purely on valuation (CNI getting too high and UNP better). These railway stocks really are buy and holders as they have a huge fuel cost competitive advantage and run a permanent North America wide oligarchy.

    Not going to double in a year or anything like that, but a steady 15% grower.

    ReplyDelete
  27. BB CanadaMarch 11, 2013 at 11:05 AM

    Also added to my Brazilian fertalizer stock, MBAC Fert (MBCFF). They've had about a 40% pullback this year, but have a lot of ggod things going for them:

    1. Going into production in April
    2. Raised thir final set of funding to get this completed at higher prices
    3. Got some high profile investors from Vale (who are big in Brazil fertilizer) and Brazil banks
    4. Assuming the brokerages are correct, trading at a reasonable multiple for 2013 and cheap one for 2014
    5. Reasonable chance of a takeover by one of the big miners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 11:20 AM

      i'm telling you fellas...brazil is a big time buy right now. EWZ was held down for a little this morning but it's rallying and now near the day's highs. anything related to brazil should do well. EWZ SID PBR etc...

      Delete
  28. PILLZILLAMarch 11, 2013 at 11:43 AM

    Took off the YRCW @ 6.67. One day 10% gain needed to be realized. Gonna buy a dip hopefully.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PILLZILLAMarch 11, 2013 at 11:52 AM

      Took off the AAPL from 421 last week at 437. Again will re-buy if dips.

      Delete
    2. PILLZILLAMarch 11, 2013 at 11:53 AM

      Gonna lighten up here a little. Feels short term toppy.

      Delete
  29. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 11:58 AM

    DMND after the close.

    ReplyDelete
  30. DavidMarch 11, 2013 at 12:29 PM

    Here is my feeling of what S&P will do: it will put in a H&S pattern with neckline at 1500 and will then break down. So far, we have completed the left shoulder and are now tracing out the "head". Soon S&P will take a dive down to 1500 and the head will be completed. It will then rebound to 1520-1530 and the right shoulder will be completed. After that, watch out!

    ReplyDelete
  31. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 2:30 PM

    so i subscribed to travelzoo a while ago when i was researching their deals and i've noticed an uptick in the number of email promotions they're doing. they're sending stuff almost on a daily basis now. i wonder how this will impact earnings...

    ReplyDelete
  32. ChickenpookieMarch 11, 2013 at 2:59 PM

    Finally got my internet connection back....

    Wow, some nice price moves guys! YRCW/VG/GASS/GV, even PM miners... PM miner oversold bounce(short covering), the culling of losing positions finally over, or what?

    ReplyDelete
  33. DavidMarch 11, 2013 at 4:00 PM

    Inflation expectations are inching up:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0

    10-year expectations closed at 2.57% today...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieMarch 11, 2013 at 4:10 PM

      The FED's next mystical magical comments are scheduled for the 20th, apparently. Three days prior to congress' next big dog and pony show?

      Delete
  34. ChickenpookieMarch 11, 2013 at 5:44 PM

    APA - Well, maybe the gap up needs to fill?

    ReplyDelete

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