2nd, I think it is going to be more a matter of time than price. The huge demand growth from China is slowing and the suppliers are now bringing a bunch of mines onstream to support the 2007 demand. Metal prices can hold steady as the costs to get a mine to production have gone up, but the miners are getting squuezed on margins. You can still pick your spots when they get really oversold or really cheap, but the tailwinds are gone.
Way easier to search through financials, industrials, transports, chemicals, etc. that are in bull trends with better fundamentals.
Did you guys catch that dude on CNBC the other day talking about the juniors? He basically said they all are lying about production costs and over 1/3 will be gone now that the 'easy' money has left them.
"FHFA tells GSEs to take less of the mortgage pie 3/8/13 The FHFA released ’13 strategic goals for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this week which could eventually open the mortgage lending markets to more private capital, creating more investment opportunities for hybrid mortgage REITs. The FHFA encouraged the GSEs to raise guarantee fees on new loans, making it more economical for private investors to compete for new loan business. The GSEs were also instructed to demonstrate the viability of risk transfer transactions with at least $30B of UPB in 2013. The hybrid mortgage REITs are well positioned to invest in these risk transfers transactions, in our view, and they could become a significant investment class for the group going forward. MITT said initial risk transfers are likely to generate healthy low teens ROEs for investors."
stopped out of my remaining tvix just about at the low for the day. I think its worth trying again on the next green uptick.
stopped out of my VXX today too. all that leaves me with now are 3 mostly worthless april spy puts. no more shorting the general market. I've tried and it hasn't happened.
FXY, I view this as a different story. I put my order out to bu 2 Jan 14 100 strike puts at 3.80 but mine never traded. I didn't get my order out until right before lunch though. I'm going to see how it looks and maybe try again tomorrow.
mark - saw your comment about the cnbc guy. i have to say i've read about comments like this very close to every major bottom in different markets. in march 09 there was a guy that said they had a strategy meeting and they couldn't come up with one single reason for going long and that the market was due to go down more.
in april 2012 i remember hearing about how guys thought nat gas would go to $0.
so when i hear about comments like this it really makes me interested. i just wish i had some way of determining the value of a metal that comes from the ground, which is the main component in determining the value of miners.
FSYS - Looks like a decent earnings response, I kinda expected that considering this company isn't a startup burning cash while trying to develop products that are already out there.
The junior mining sector is in desperate times, with share prices depressed and many companies struggling for their very own survival.
But here’s one sign that better times could be on the horizon: corporate insiders at many of these firms are snapping up shares, believing that this is a time to bargain hunt, not run scared.
According to INK Research, which monitors transactions among corporate directors and officers within their own businesses, there are more than four stocks with key insider buying for every one with selling on the junior miner-rich TSX Venture exchange.
'Insider transactions often foreshadow market moves six to 36 months in advance - so it could be quite a wait, if they’re right, for a rebound in the sector.'
That could mean purgatory. The bottom line is I prefer to play dead cat bounces, until the sector proves itself.
Been there, done that. I have really done poorly over the years trying to sell and rebuy on pullbacks. When the pullback comes, I often hesitate looking for more and miss the opportunity. Better off for me just to buy it when it is low and start selling as it gets fully valued.
Yeah, I must've been hoping for a retest of the 50sma or napping. probably napping....... while trying to reconcile why it was sold down to $12 not so long ago. Trying to day trade is tough.
This is a ver GOOD thing...i guess this is what they were mentioning on those presentations a month or so ago when they were talking about reducing costs in their network.
OVERLAND PARK, Kan. , March 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- YRC Freight, a subsidiary of YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW), has mailed to union leadership a proposal for a new set of network improvements.
Once implemented, the network improvements will be another step in YRC Freight's efforts to continuously improve customer service, optimize linehaul density and load average, reduce empty miles and reduce shipment handling.
"By realigning our network, YRC Freight will reduce the number of handling and relay locations in order to build network density," said Jeff Rogers , president of YRC Freight. "These network improvements will be seamless to our customers and when implemented will improve our service. The ongoing effort to optimize our network is also a key part of our sustainability efforts as we reduce mileage and emissions. Better density means fewer empty miles and less emissions."
A committee composed of union and company leadership will convene a formal hearing - expected to take place in April 2013 - to consider the network improvements which are expected to begin in May 2013 .
"This is all about improving customer service and taking another step to regain a lead position in the North American LTL market," added Rogers. "This change also moves us closer to sustained profitability."
Chicagostock Trading @Chicagostock #SP500 should not put in all time highs to keep buyers supporting dips looking for new highs, in turn setting up bag holders. #stockaction
Market profile saying similar thing... MJR @panamaorange $ES_F Hard to find anything bullish in 3yr $SPY histogram, in perspective of volume profile theory http://stks.co/dMcB http://stocktwits.com/message/12416665
Strong move up for ORBC today. Those ascending triangle formations are about the most reliable ones I can find. you can practically visualize the pressure building.
LTON is one that i jotted down as an ascending triangle pattern.
so which ones do you guys see as the ultimate winners in this online poker / gambling movement? ZNGA seems to be getting some support but knowing how people gravitate to the biggest possible network then wouldn't FB be the ultimate winner? if that's the case that would be self-reinforcing as it would draw in more users to its network that previously stopped using it (like myself and pretty much all of my friends).
FB upside broker target is $35. I don't like FB mostly probably b/c of the stodgy name, that fake looking Clark Kent fellow, and the entire IPO fiasco LOL, how's that for being totally stupid-stubborn?
It took SLV one more day than I expected to break above the $28.1 resistance level (formed over the past week, visible on the 1-month intraday chart). I am surprised that it didn't rally right away to $28.50 following this break, since now it is clear that the chart is bullish and SLV will keep climbing. Buying it now is a low risk buy, IMO. I have already purchased my SLV call options last week, so I am all set...
PNPFF has put in another short-term bottom. Time will show whether it turns out to be a long-term bottom. In any case, I have just picked up 5000 more shares at $0.61, which increased my position size to 30K shares total at the average cost of $0.78.
GDXJ has broken out today above its Feb 26 high. PNPFF will surely follow, since 50% of its investments are junior PM miners... The 1-month intraday SLV chart also looks awesome -- to broke out today above the 1-week resistance. Now couple this constructive price action with a 10-year low sentiment in the PM sector (as was well-described here: http://www.zealllc.com/2013/congfut2.htm and also in some Geoff's charts), and you'll see that a continued rally in the PM sector is inevitable...
INT - How about this one for an island reversal? Broker PO is now $46
"2/22/2013 3:38 AM
INT reported 4Q EPS of $0.64, below our target, as softer Marine activity and negative effect from hurricane Sandy hurt Land performance. If fuel volatility ramps, it should aid results. PO to $46
Freight Forwarding # World Fuel Services: Largest acq moves it into truck gas card segment;PO up to $43 December 18, 2012"
VZ - P/E of 154, incredible bargain last June, huh? This supports an argument there are still bargains to be had on stocks that haven't yet recovered from their idiotic sell offs.
VOIP - Do any of you guys ever use any voip services? I was just wondering b/c it seems like a mechanism that could eliminate your land line phone bill.
BYI/WMS/IGT - Online Gaming - What about BYI or some of it's peers, would these industry veterans have any chance of competing in the expanding online market? Double top in BYI chart here.....
YRCW - The 80/20 rule appears in play for this one, and a few others such as AGO.
Notice that YRCW reached $5.80 last week then rallied to close $6.20, which brought today's $6.80 So based on this rule, it wouldn't be unwise to anticipate a close better than $7.20 soon.
Inversely, if $7.20 target is rejected, the price could trade between $$7.20~$6.80 or, if tomorrow's opening direction is immediately down, could lead to a retest of $6.20?
AUMN - This one too, 52wk low was ~$2.20 which held and today it ran to ~$2.80 but failed to close above.
This one obviously correlates with PM's to a large extent, so one should apply the 80/20 test there as confirmation. For instance, gold has settled above $1580 level and if it can hold then there's a decent chance $1620 is possible. Currently $1592, should progress to $1598, then to $1602, etc...
The market has reached an unstable point, where a random event can trigger a huge correction, since investors are leveraged up to the max on the long side:
HEK- Getting pretty close to 1B in Rev.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you plan on buying it, if ever?
DeleteI'll call X+3B tomorrow. But I'm sure he'll say the same thing.
Delete"he'll say the same thing."
DeleteI don't recall what he said, so it'll be new news to me.
2nd, I think it is going to be more a matter of time than price. The huge demand growth from China is slowing and the suppliers are now bringing a bunch of mines onstream to support the 2007 demand. Metal prices can hold steady as the costs to get a mine to production have gone up, but the miners are getting squuezed on margins. You can still pick your spots when they get really oversold or really cheap, but the tailwinds are gone.
ReplyDeleteWay easier to search through financials, industrials, transports, chemicals, etc. that are in bull trends with better fundamentals.
Did you guys catch that dude on CNBC the other day talking about the juniors? He basically said they all are lying about production costs and over 1/3 will be gone now that the 'easy' money has left them.
DeleteA major bottom in the juniors MUST be accompanied by such a sentiment, for otherwise it won't be a major bottom...
DeletePotential Hybrid REIT Catalyst: IVR/RWT/PMT/DX/MITT/EFC
ReplyDelete"FHFA tells GSEs to take less of the mortgage pie
3/8/13
The FHFA released ’13 strategic goals for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this week
which could eventually open the mortgage lending markets to more private
capital, creating more investment opportunities for hybrid mortgage REITs. The
FHFA encouraged the GSEs to raise guarantee fees on new loans, making it
more economical for private investors to compete for new loan business. The
GSEs were also instructed to demonstrate the viability of risk transfer transactions
with at least $30B of UPB in 2013. The hybrid mortgage REITs are well positioned
to invest in these risk transfers transactions, in our view, and they could become a
significant investment class for the group going forward. MITT said initial risk
transfers are likely to generate healthy low teens ROEs for investors."
evening,
ReplyDeletecp, welcome back, i was getting concerned.
stopped out of my remaining tvix just about at the low for the day. I think its worth trying again on the next green uptick.
stopped out of my VXX today too. all that leaves me with now are 3 mostly worthless april spy puts. no more shorting the general market. I've tried and it hasn't happened.
FXY, I view this as a different story. I put my order out to bu 2 Jan 14 100 strike puts at 3.80 but mine never traded. I didn't get my order out until right before lunch though. I'm going to see how it looks and maybe try again tomorrow.
Sold a little of my USAT to lock in some profit.
mark - saw your comment about the cnbc guy. i have to say i've read about comments like this very close to every major bottom in different markets. in march 09 there was a guy that said they had a strategy meeting and they couldn't come up with one single reason for going long and that the market was due to go down more.
ReplyDeletein april 2012 i remember hearing about how guys thought nat gas would go to $0.
so when i hear about comments like this it really makes me interested. i just wish i had some way of determining the value of a metal that comes from the ground, which is the main component in determining the value of miners.
LOL, they know this and so are using reverse psychology?
DeleteBroker targets 3/8/13: WHR/$140, KLAC/$63, FB/$35
ReplyDeleteFSYS - Looks like a decent earnings response, I kinda expected that considering this company isn't a startup burning cash while trying to develop products that are already out there.
ReplyDeleteThe miners are taking off, along with gold/silver prices. So my lead post may have marked the bottom. Won't be the first time.
ReplyDeleteThe recent bottom occurred last week. The question now is if PM's rise will they follow? So both of these must occur?
DeleteIf you are thinking about the junior miners:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/insiders-suggest-now-is-the-time-to-snap-up-junior-miners-on-the-cheap/article9270513/
The junior mining sector is in desperate times, with share prices depressed and many companies struggling for their very own survival.
But here’s one sign that better times could be on the horizon: corporate insiders at many of these firms are snapping up shares, believing that this is a time to bargain hunt, not run scared.
According to INK Research, which monitors transactions among corporate directors and officers within their own businesses, there are more than four stocks with key insider buying for every one with selling on the junior miner-rich TSX Venture exchange.
'Insider transactions often foreshadow market moves six to 36 months in advance - so it could be quite a wait, if they’re right, for a rebound in the sector.'
DeleteThat could mean purgatory. The bottom line is I prefer to play dead cat bounces, until the sector proves itself.
UMPQ - Here's a regional bank that might interest?
ReplyDeleteLooks like someone tried to run stops out of the gate?
DeleteVG - I last sold this one @ $2.77, will this level hold this time?
ReplyDeletePMT - Wow, I did manage to catch the ex-dividend.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Why didn't I re-enter on that gap fill retest of $18!?!?!? F!!!
ReplyDeleteBeen there, done that. I have really done poorly over the years trying to sell and rebuy on pullbacks. When the pullback comes, I often hesitate looking for more and miss the opportunity. Better off for me just to buy it when it is low and start selling as it gets fully valued.
DeleteYeah, I must've been hoping for a retest of the 50sma or napping. probably napping....... while trying to reconcile why it was sold down to $12 not so long ago. Trying to day trade is tough.
DeleteSold TVIX @4.14 Good for an overnight 6%
ReplyDeletesold VZ @48.20. Will look for free 50 cents on a dip.
DeleteSPX - Oh come on, we're not rolling over here to make an H of H&S are we? Sheesh!
ReplyDeleteAlright damn it, AAPL to $415, let's do it then!
Added to YRCW at $6.56
ReplyDeleteThat dip didn't last long.
DeleteThis is a ver GOOD thing...i guess this is what they were mentioning on those presentations a month or so ago when they were talking about reducing costs in their network.
ReplyDeleteOVERLAND PARK, Kan. , March 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- YRC Freight, a subsidiary of YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW), has mailed to union leadership a proposal for a new set of network improvements.
Once implemented, the network improvements will be another step in YRC Freight's efforts to continuously improve customer service, optimize linehaul density and load average, reduce empty miles and reduce shipment handling.
"By realigning our network, YRC Freight will reduce the number of handling and relay locations in order to build network density," said Jeff Rogers , president of YRC Freight. "These network improvements will be seamless to our customers and when implemented will improve our service. The ongoing effort to optimize our network is also a key part of our sustainability efforts as we reduce mileage and emissions. Better density means fewer empty miles and less emissions."
A committee composed of union and company leadership will convene a formal hearing - expected to take place in April 2013 - to consider the network improvements which are expected to begin in May 2013 .
"This is all about improving customer service and taking another step to regain a lead position in the North American LTL market," added Rogers. "This change also moves us closer to sustained profitability."
one view ...
ReplyDeleteChicagostock Trading @Chicagostock
#SP500 should not put in all time highs to keep buyers supporting dips looking for new highs, in turn setting up bag holders. #stockaction
how is chicagostock's track record on calling tops?
DeleteNot just him ...
DeleteMarket profile saying similar thing...
MJR @panamaorange
$ES_F Hard to find anything bullish in 3yr $SPY histogram, in perspective of volume profile theory http://stks.co/dMcB
http://stocktwits.com/message/12416665
well, hopefully lots more people pile on to the top calls!
Deleteanother view ...
DeleteGeorge Stoykov @GeorgeStoykov
Top/Bottom picking is like pissing against the wind. 1 out of 10 times you actually won't piss on yourself.
MLNX oh my!
ReplyDeleteStrong move up for ORBC today. Those ascending triangle formations are about the most reliable ones I can find. you can practically visualize the pressure building.
ReplyDeleteLTON is one that i jotted down as an ascending triangle pattern.
"ORBCOMM Partners with Sumitomo on Global OEM Telematics Solution Business Wire +6.38%"
DeleteI like Sumitomo, good company. You know I like ORBC's business, as well.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/net-us-gluumobile-realmoneygambling-idUSBRE92B0PK20130312?feedType=RSS&feedName=globalMarketsNews&rpc=43
ReplyDeleteso which ones do you guys see as the ultimate winners in this online poker / gambling movement? ZNGA seems to be getting some support but knowing how people gravitate to the biggest possible network then wouldn't FB be the ultimate winner? if that's the case that would be self-reinforcing as it would draw in more users to its network that previously stopped using it (like myself and pretty much all of my friends).
GLUU's turn today, plus 21%
DeleteFB upside broker target is $35. I don't like FB mostly probably b/c of the stodgy name, that fake looking Clark Kent fellow, and the entire IPO fiasco LOL, how's that for being totally stupid-stubborn?
DeleteIt took SLV one more day than I expected to break above the $28.1 resistance level (formed over the past week, visible on the 1-month intraday chart). I am surprised that it didn't rally right away to $28.50 following this break, since now it is clear that the chart is bullish and SLV will keep climbing. Buying it now is a low risk buy, IMO. I have already purchased my SLV call options last week, so I am all set...
ReplyDeleteMAR - Looks as if this one may have some more upside remaining, AGO definitely looks like it as well.
ReplyDeleteToday's broad weakness may lead to some profit taking and entry opportunities?
PNPFF has put in another short-term bottom. Time will show whether it turns out to be a long-term bottom. In any case, I have just picked up 5000 more shares at $0.61, which increased my position size to 30K shares total at the average cost of $0.78.
ReplyDeleteDavid - why not wait for a higher high and higher low?
DeleteGDXJ has broken out today above its Feb 26 high. PNPFF will surely follow, since 50% of its investments are junior PM miners... The 1-month intraday SLV chart also looks awesome -- to broke out today above the 1-week resistance. Now couple this constructive price action with a 10-year low sentiment in the PM sector (as was well-described here: http://www.zealllc.com/2013/congfut2.htm and also in some Geoff's charts), and you'll see that a continued rally in the PM sector is inevitable...
DeleteGGN pays a handsome div, curious if you've considered it?
Delete"50% of its investments are junior PM miners... "
DeleteI guess you're gonna need some leverage in order to recover stiff paper losses but I wonder if you're still looking for love in all the wrong places.
It sure has happened to me, more than just a few times. First in gold, then in PM miners.
At the current price, GGN seems like a good long-term investment for risk-averse investors in the PM space...
DeleteINT - How about this one for an island reversal? Broker PO is now $46
ReplyDelete"2/22/2013 3:38 AM
INT reported 4Q EPS of $0.64, below our target, as softer Marine activity and negative effect from hurricane Sandy hurt Land performance. If fuel volatility ramps, it should aid results. PO to $46
Freight Forwarding
# World Fuel Services: Largest acq moves it into truck gas card segment;PO up to $43
December 18, 2012"
VZ - P/E of 154, incredible bargain last June, huh? This supports an argument there are still bargains to be had on stocks that haven't yet recovered from their idiotic sell offs.
ReplyDeleteVOIP - Do any of you guys ever use any voip services? I was just wondering b/c it seems like a mechanism that could eliminate your land line phone bill.
ReplyDeleteI use Skype. What's a land line...
DeleteA land line is an overpriced yet effective, tethering device.
DeleteBYI/WMS/IGT - Online Gaming - What about BYI or some of it's peers, would these industry veterans have any chance of competing in the expanding online market? Double top in BYI chart here.....
ReplyDeleteYRCW - The 80/20 rule appears in play for this one, and a few others such as AGO.
ReplyDeleteNotice that YRCW reached $5.80 last week then rallied to close $6.20, which brought today's $6.80 So based on this rule, it wouldn't be unwise to anticipate a close better than $7.20 soon.
Inversely, if $7.20 target is rejected, the price could trade between $$7.20~$6.80 or, if tomorrow's opening direction is immediately down, could lead to a retest of $6.20?
DeleteAUMN - This one too, 52wk low was ~$2.20 which held and today it ran to ~$2.80 but failed to close above.
ReplyDeleteThis one obviously correlates with PM's to a large extent, so one should apply the 80/20 test there as confirmation. For instance, gold has settled above $1580 level and if it can hold then there's a decent chance $1620 is possible. Currently $1592, should progress to $1598, then to $1602, etc...
The market has reached an unstable point, where a random event can trigger a huge correction, since investors are leveraged up to the max on the long side:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-12/surge-trading-leverage-triggers-bank-america-contrarian-sell-signal