Wednesday, March 13, 2013

03/13/13 That stretch down south



If gold sells off from here, support lines for miners won't stand the strain.

The older I get, the more apparent it is the capital markets are a killing ground.  Odds favor continued carnage in the mining sector.

84 comments:

  1. PM's always turn back at resistance, that's how a trend is defined? It sucks, but it is what it is... More than a few equities out there have made bewildering 50%, 75%, 200%, 2000% moves as well..... Hard to imagine markets aren't rigged, isn't it?

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  2. VMW - Oh I see now, this one hit 50SMA resistance today. PNF indicates a $105 target, just shy of my broker's PO.

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  3. Not off to a good start.

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

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    1. Still holding $1580, gold has to fail this level before the next stop at $1520. This entire process could take 20~30 years....

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    2. It could also take 20-30 minutes.

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    3. Meanwhile, wonder if Chavez ever figured out how to transport his gold with him to the pearly gates?

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    4. I think he might have more serious problems right now.

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    5. No doubt the price will change at least a little within the next 30 minutes, I'm not gonna watch as it falls for 30 years though. I'll check it periodically, 6 yrs ago I began checking it about once/wk until I finally bought it at which time it immediately crashed to $720.

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    6. I'm also wondering if Mark actually owns a circular saw and if so whether it's a girl's sidewinder style, or a worm drive model.

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  4. VMW - "VMware Inc.: Growth rate acceleration is positive
    3/13/2013 11:57 AM

    Reit Buy and $106 PO. 15% growth in C13 is expected to accel. gradually to 20% in C16. This coupled with ng OM expansion of 50 bps/yr should support EPS growth of 20%+ till C16 and support a 25x PE."

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  5. the more i look at the weekly chart of BIDU the more bullish i get...as long as it holds above $84ish. valuation is dirt cheap given it's growth rate. i think that whole lack of mobile monetization is bullshit. this is one of the most defensible business models around. it's nearly impossible to topple the king of search nowadays since search is one of the most essential and necessary things we do.

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    Replies
    1. That's a great point about search TOF.

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    2. Probably worth a shot near here and that upside down bull flag(bear flag) triggered already, will look at this in la manana. There's a concern over mobile monetization as opposed to Chinese regulatory intervention?

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  6. Todd Harrison ‏@todd_harrison

    Is it bad that I hear "white smoke" and think of #cannabis as my best investment theme for the next 10 years? It's #biotech circa 1990 IMO

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  7. CP- We only use worm drive Skilsaw mags. Easier on the elbow.

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    1. Bada Bing...

      http://www.skiltools.com/Tools/Pages/ProductDetail.aspx?model=SHD77M

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    2. Ha, a man's saw... I always thought of worm drives as framing saws but they're a better design, IMO.

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    3. You'd probably kick me off the job site right away when I show up with my chainsaw....

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    4. I still use my worm drive but these days I'm liking my compound sliding miter on a stand.
      My friend Steve was a big wig for one of the large framing outfits and they were using CAD plans that were fed into a NC saw that cut and marked everything. Not too useful for the spec jobs but great for tracts.

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  8. 6000 dead pigs found floating in Shanghai river/water supply.

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  9. It's 1:30 in the east now and I'm trying to decide if it is good or bad that I can't sleep as I keep thinking excitedly about the stock market.

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  10. Jobless claims: 2nd lowest level in 5yrs.

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  11. Added some BIDU at $88.299.

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    1. oh...looks like i missed a 9. 88.2999. wtf

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    2. Now's your chance to make up for the oversight.

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    3. $87.2899 here, got that missing nine covered....

      Qualifies as knife catching right here, still inside BB on weekly and daily.

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  12. BIDU - 12mo PO is $125
    "Baidu.com: iQiyi: a bigger than expected “delta”
    2/5/2013 11:11 AM

    Co's consolidation had more impact on P&L than we expected. We thus cut EPS by 7% and DCF-based PO by 9%"

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    Replies
    1. Looks like they want to test a breakdown below support. I cleared my position at $87.76 and will look to buy either above $88 or below $86.

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  13. GDXJ/ GG> opened 16.30/ 32.10, closed 16.44/ 32.32...

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  14. CP- Where'd you read about the dead pigs?

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    Replies
    1. Heard it on the radio, 462,000 hits in GOOG search too.

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  15. Heavy volume in YRCW today. Looks like some people that were itching to bail (probably buyers after earnings report that want out at even). Should be some choppiness around this level as a lot of shares traded here after earnings.

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  16. BYD looks awesome.

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    Replies
    1. of course it makes me want to sell.

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    2. Sold 1/4 position BYD $7.39

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  17. Buy when Vol is low, sell when Vol is high. look at how REDF was trading at lows in 2010. i remember when i was buying shares i was pretty much the only one on the bid. i'm pretty sure there were tumbleweeds rolling down the streamer a couple of months ago in TZOO and YRCW.

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  18. Back in SNFCA at $7.99. I like the set up on this one a lot. nice rounded base. small position.

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  19. Mark - NQ gap fill...you playing it?

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  20. seriously...wtf is going on with OWW? i bought that thing at like $2.7 six weeks ago (let's ignore the fact that i sold at breakeven). what a friggin move man.

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  21. BIDU - Wow, someone hates this... Must be shorts pressing their luck.....

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  22. The baltic dry index has now made a series of higher lows over the past 6 months. anything related to this is a buy. this is the start of a major move higher in BALT, EXM, DSX etc.

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  23. Added NQ at $8.73.

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  24. More NQ at $8.63...chasing it down the rabbit hole...not a good thing.

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  25. Japan - Two more mechanisms for monitoring Japanese market health would involve watching their factory automation sector:

    THK Global - Linear motion bearings of all types, shapes and sizes used in factory automation.

    Oriental Motor - Ditto, electric motors that push and pull millions of precision robotic actuators about.

    Any robotechie worth his salt should have some level of familiarity with Akihabara:

    http://www.akihabarashop.jp/

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  26. Sold SNFCA $8.11. I still like this one to go a lot higher tho

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  27. Added NQ at $8.55.

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    Replies
    1. Going to put a mental stop around $8.4. Avg is around $8.66

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  28. HLF - Not much volume, trend line support in jeopardy?

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  29. GDX going according to plan. CEF not following suit.

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    Replies
    1. Well, I met a girl from the Vieux Carre`
      Down in Yokohama
      She picked me up and she throwed me down
      I said, "Please don't hurt me, Mama"

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    2. Not so much CP, maybe for you and Warren. :)

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    3. You're not alone, my friend!

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cr29Iy5emw

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  30. GMO - SDL.AX - Sundance Resources reported earnings, no word on progress of Hanlong deal though:

    http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/2565-27064409/HalfYearAccounts

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  31. I feel like a friggin mining investor with NQ. Avg now at $8.6. I do see that Stephen Stewart recommended this at $8.50 so it's probably natural it went back to his buy point right here.

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  32. One of the few market commentatories I pay attention to, Don Hays, calling for $1,500 to break in the next 2-3 months and to hit $1,000 in the next 2-3 years as fear continues out of the market. Makes sense to me.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/uptrend-gold-broken-next-stop-could-1000-don-111255307.html

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    Replies
    1. Does he understand anything about inflation? Does he understand that it will ZOOM if the economy stabilizes and we start getting some decent GDP numbers because monetary velocity, by definition, is GDP divided by the monetary base, and Fed is not about to reduce the monetary base...

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    2. $1000 is less than true cost of production, which last I read was ~$1600.... A subject way beyond my comprehension. Its qualities are those of texture rather than form. It is a series of vignettes, based on fact, falsified by art, transformed into short stories, and woven into a fascinating play.

      Aside: Is Zero Hedge a clever front for RTV?

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  33. "We all missed the NGas trade."

    Well, not all. :) I started scaling into KOLD puts in early February, thinking that the January pullback in UNL was over. KOLD spiked as soon as I started buying puts, but I kept buying puts all the way to its top at $27. I have already sold my March puts with profit, and now I have a sell limit order open for the August $30 puts at 2X my purchase price (my limit already falls within today's bid/ask spread).

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  34. AGO - $20.80 -> $21.20 based on 80/20 rule, $20.88 -> $20.92 in progress now.

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  35. Jeez no bounced on NQ...stopped out at $8.42.

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  36. My sell limit order on KOLD puts was just hit at $11. I actually set it slightly below the doubling price, since I wanted to make sure they will be sold today. Today is my wife's birthday, and I figured that the $1K I just made on this trade would be a good present for me on her birthday. :) My kids really wanted to go to a sushi restaurant for dinner tonight, so I wanted to get some spare cash to pay for the restaurant. :)

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  37. Recycled the money made on KOLD puts into 16 contracts of July $28 calls on SLV at $1.36.

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  38. My gal is red-hot (Your gal ain't doodly-squat)...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYwvBFfxKfE

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  39. CP, gold was under most producers production costs in the late 1990's. Some of the better run ones like Barrick Gold remained profitable by forward selling production at higher prices. Plus, the miners cut unprofitable mines and only mined high grade veins to get the best possible revenue per ton mined and the also cut back on capital spending. Supply also was high due to central banks selling gold every year, helping keep pressure on prices that otherwise probably would have risen with production costs.

    David, his point is that as fear comes out of the market, one of the main reasons for holding gold goes away. This will drive increased supply into the market and he thinks will push prices down.

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    Replies
    1. "Supply also was high due to central banks selling gold every year"

      Someone was buying it, and CB's were selling it, for a reason. Now the opposite is true, no?.....

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  40. I bought back into NOK at the end of the day today at $3.47. i believe this is in a new bull market and pullbacks should be purchased.

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