You may be wondering whether the point at which a 'lost opportunity'
occurred was yesterday. No. Had I opened a position yesterday (sure, I thought
about it, but not seriously), the 4% gain today would belong in the category of
'Mistakes that paid off.'
The real set-up is down the road (usually 1-3 days later), although a
necessary step in the process occurred today> the high volume buys should
create a 'floor' for prices. A pullback (in
the form of either a partial retracement, or a retest of the lows [which these
days seem to include an obligatory 'undercutting' of the previous low to ensure
bulls lose sleep!) then provides a low-risk entry point.
Why would prices pull back?
(a) Anyone who bought yesterday or today will want to preserve gains.
(b) Anyone who bought at any time over the past few weeks will be waiting
for a chance to get
out.
Given the relentless selling recently, prices may not pull back much at all. In that case, there's no trade.
What if prices pull back, only to collapse further? In that case, I would cut losses immediately.
Given the relentless selling recently, prices may not pull back much at all. In that case, there's no trade.
What if prices pull back, only to collapse further? In that case, I would cut losses immediately.
Hey 2nd ... your way ahead of yourself with the date on the new post!
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I'm in a cautious stance. Fully invested but largest holding by far is a preferred stock from a REIT - SLGpI.
Indeed.
ReplyDeleteI'm ALWAYS cautious. I wouldn't trust the market with a penny on the floor of my car.
I didn't get filled on my extended hours order to buy IAG. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
ReplyDeleteSome of the comments from PDAC:
ReplyDeleteWhen do we see the turnaround for the juniors?
> Start first with the seniors. $60 billion in write downs and firing of 20 CEOs. There is pressure for companies as to carefully decide which projects they invest in. Short term there will be a cleansing of the juniors. Those that can generate cash flows will survive.
>Hubbub was about juniors’ inability to raise capital. They resorted to high yield debt, royalties, and joint ventures. TSX venture was down 50% from two years ago. They are hanging in.
>Venture Stocks. Feels about 30% of these stocks will disappear and it will turn into a slaughter unless there is a major shift in sentiment. People are not putting money into this risky sector. About 70% of companies trading on the Venture Exchange have only $1 million or less in the bank. If they account for 30% of the total valuation of the venture exchange, which is $40 billion, companies with $1 million or less cannot survive very long. Right now, the opportunity exists to acquire some really quality companies, quality management and quality deposits at a discount to what they are worth. You have to be very, very careful and do your due diligence because there is no more dumb money to bail us out. As a potential investor, one of the first things he’d be looking for is, do they have enough money to not only survive but to do some meaningful work. Secondly he’d be looking at the projects that offer potential of a major economic deposit that would interest somebody else as an acquisition. Thirdly he would look at management. There are a lot of quality people in this industry. If you get these 3 things right, you will do fantastic in this market.
Wouldn’t it be a more prudent use of money for companies to acquire companies than trying to grow by the drill bit?
>A lot of the majors did some big acquisitions over the past 5 years or so and paid way too much for things and are getting burned terribly. Management is scared and they’re pulling in. New fad is now cash flow and earnings. To do that they are going to tweak their mines which have already been tweaked and they are not going to get much profit or savings out of that. They’re going to add to their mines by drilling around existing mines but 9 out of 10 times the grade is lower and deeper so costs are not really going to go down. Also, there are not that many good deposits out there.
Further declines for miners? I think it’s more likely than a quick recovery in prices. There was gnashing of teeth, but no ambulances. I normally see more pain before Cinderella fires up her sweeper, so I’m leaning towards a bull trap.
ReplyDeleteSeeking Alpha @SeekingAlpha
ReplyDeleteWhat The Reverse Split In NUGT Means For Shareholders Of Gold Miners
http://seekingalpha.com/a/qw9t $NUGT
http://www.direxionfunds.com/press-release/share-splits-of-16-etfs
ES_F Fib extension draw to 1560...
ReplyDeleteRichard Crockett @stocktiger
$ES_F S&P futures up 4 at R1 and horizontal resistance and 127.2% Fib - trend line over head http://stks.co/t4fL
http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12434543.jpg?1362665023
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
ReplyDelete[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
Unfortunately, all the bugs have not been worked out on the blog and I am having difficulty in posting my morning report. I have it saved and will post when the blog is working correctly.
In summary, the post has 8 charts and points to very constructive action in the miners yesterday and a possible long trade set-up. The next few days will be very important - we may have seen a low but it is not confirmed yet.
Hopefully I will have it up later.
I don't want to point out the obvious, but reread the lead post from last night. You read it here first, bro.
DeleteBB- Thanks for the PACD comments.
ReplyDeleteNo problem. If you really want to spend some fun time away from the soccer fields on this, BNN has a bunch of videos at http://www.bnn.ca/Special-Coverage/PDAC.aspx
DeleteCool. I'll check it out this weekend.
DeleteLong NOK at $3.71
ReplyDeleteI will tag along on this one. in @3.71
ReplyDeleteAdded APPL at 421 as well.
Added to CEF today too.
MGIC up 15% in the last week to $5.41 on no news (other than a security company implmenting their software).
ReplyDeleteStock is still one of the cheapest software companies out there with a good divdend. Getting some talk as a breakout stock on Stocktwits, but who knows. Just nice to see it moving finally.
I was just looking at this one!! I bet it's mixed up with MTG action.
DeleteYou know, you could be right - news and comment for MTG often get shown in here.
DeleteHmmm, I like MGIC longer term, but maybe should sell some here and try and get back cheaper.
Thanks Mark.
Decided to just hold it. Was over $7.00 last year and no reason it couldn't get back there this year and I'd hate to miss the run up. It is pretty much impossible to figure out why stocks move sometimes, at least in my way of investing.
DeleteI was looking at MGIC action and thinking of you. Nice 4 day move 2 gaps up.
DeleteThanks for PDAC insights BB, best I've read!
Finally it a GA GAS GASS, may be the best NG play out there.
i was looking at MGIC two days ago and was thinking the same thing: i wonder if it runs just because of MTG...am i wrong or did that happen last year as well?
ReplyDeleteQCOM long 66.54ish
ReplyDeleteGoldman downgraded the other day
QCOM raised div abd increased buybacks
If it can takes out 69 would be B/O
notice BA B/O today
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deleteout 66.71
Deleteround two of the BYD move higher is coming by next week. just my suspicion...
ReplyDeleteSDT a trust connected with SD.
ReplyDeleteTotally trashed div 23%, think about it for a trade.
long 13.37ish
DeleteI'll use a stop of 12.80 mental
Deletenice pick up
DeleteThese type of trades always makes me nervous.
DeleteAlvin Lee 1944 - 2013 Goin' Home.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.myspace.com/video/kermit-la-grenouille/alvin-lee-quot-i-39-m-going-home-quot-live-woodstock-39-69/5860873
RIP Alvin
DeleteI'd Love To Change The World, a personal FAV of mind.
rountine surgery?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0NFxXjxacc
DeleteYeah, not many details on what "routine surgery" means, but complications are usually bleeding or infection. 68? Too young for me.
DeleteRe MGIC and MTG, never noticed that, but the stock charts for the 2 are very similar for the last 2 years, and they are not just following the market which is quite different.
ReplyDeleteVery surprising as they are, of course, completely unrelated. I wonder how many people do buy MGIC by mistake. You wouldn't think this would happen as people should at least understand the company they are buying, but maybe there is enough money that doesn't and the average volume on MGIC is only 60,000 shares a day as opposed to 9 million for MTG, so easy to move.
I agree, its hard to imagine that traders would be that dumb.
DeleteGood news for nat gas and related stocks this morning. Maybe Jesse's nat gas call starting to play out:
ReplyDeleteThe Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas in storage shrank by 146 billion cubic feet to 2.083 trillion cubic feet in the week ended March 1. Analysts expected a draw of 130 billion to 134 billion cubic feet. Natural gas supplies are now 15 percent below year-ago levels.
XCO / PGH - Now that they are ripping higher let's see if we can get a higher low. That will be a good signal to me that the bottom is in. My suspicion based on how hard they are rallying is that it is in.
DeleteTrading in SNE is harder than I thought -- got stopped out this morning at $15.39, which was exactly my entry price. Well, at least I am not losing money anymore on my trades. :)
ReplyDeleteLong BIDU yet again at $90.37.
ReplyDeleteOkay traders....your song: "You won't Lose"
ReplyDeleteThe Ben Babylon Band
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E1ilkcjbHgk#!
You know who Ben is, I've written about him before.
Listen to these kids play!
PACB with a good day.
ReplyDeleteNSPH too. Crazy volume in PACB. I'm guessing block trades??
DeleteCheck the smarttrend report.
DeleteHussman getting aggessively defensive of his investment position this week. Must be feeling a lot of pressure given that he his main fund is down over 13 years since inception:
ReplyDeleteThings will change. Today is not 2009, 2003, 1991, or 1982. The appropriate comparison to present conditions includes 1972, 1987, 2000, and 2007. Investors are likely to learn that too late. The Fed's punch bowl has poison at the bottom.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/03/06/wrong-question/
Deleteafternoon, what a snoozer of a day
ReplyDeletebot 700 IAG at 6.23, got a good till cancelled stop in place at 5.87
bot 500 VXX at 22.03, got a good till cancelled stop in place at 20.87